At the Gate - Sunday
By Mike Dempsey
It is back to handicapping over the fake stuff for Sunday as we head off to Woodbine for the $1 million Queen’s Plate, the first jewel of Canada’s Triple Crown, which is contested over the Tapeta surface.
It is a good betting race, with a field of 13 three-year-olds set to go 1 ¼ miles. I landed on the Tom Proctor trained Enterprise, who stretches out off a good looking prep at seven furlongs over the surface. He is bred to go long and should be a decent price.
Earlier on the card Lady Shipman will take on the boys in the $200,000 Highlander (G2) at six furlongs on the turf. She was beaten just a neck in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1) last fall against males going 5 ½ furlongs at Keeneland.
She shipped to Dubai for the Al Quoz Sprint (G1) and was off poorly and not a threat in a seventh place finish. She has run well in two starts since returning, winning the License Fee and The Very One and is the even money favorite.
The price will be puny so I’m going with Passion for Action in the Highlander. Of the four stakes from Woodbine included in my Best Plays Report, I go against the morning line favorite in each.
No hots dogs at today’s cookout, it’s going to be steak. I hope.
Here is today’s opener from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:
BEL Race 1 Md Sp Wt (1:30 ET)
#2 Madcap Heiress 4-1
#4 Malibu Princess 7-5
#6 Timido 5-1
#1 Alluring Miss / 1a Theatric 3-1
Analysis: Madcap Heiress ships in from Churchill Downs for the Cox barn that is 22% winners (with a +ROI) with first time starters. This filly is working as if she is quick. She is by Speightstown (16% winners with debut runners) out of a Successful Appeal mare that has dropped three foals to race, all winners.
Malibu Princess set the early fractions and could not match strides late with the winner in a runner up finish last out in her local debut. Shed was sent off at 6-5 in her debut at Gulfstream Park back in April pressing the early pace and weakening to finish third behind repeat winner Miss Hollywood, who beat Alw-1 optional claimers in her next outing at Gulfstream Park on June 2 by 9 3/4 lengths. She will be tough here and is in good hands with the underrated Mareina barn. She is out of a More Royal mare that has dropped five winners.
Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 2,4 / 2,4,6
TRI: no play
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:
BEL Race 8 OClm $80,000C (5:13 ET)
#3 Blacktype 5-1
#8 Almasty 5-2
#5 Kharafa 3-1
#2 Enterprising 20-1
Analysis: Blacktype takes the blinkers off after checking in third last out versus similar. The gelding was on hold early racing in a pocket and then did not have quite enough punch when clear, just missing the runner up spot by a nose. He makes his third start off the bench here and I like the jock switch to Junior. This guy appears to be sitting on a good one and likely will be a fair price in a deep field here.
Almasty stretches out from seven furlongs for his second start off a 6 1/2 month layoff. He stalked the early pace, came with a five wide run to grab a short lead and could not match strides late with the winner, settling for second. He won the Commonwealth Turf (G3) two back going long over good ground at Churchill Downs last November. Cox claimed this guy for just $30,000 last March and has done good worth with him. The barn is 31% winners (with a +ROI) with runners making their second start off a +180 day layoff.
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 3,8 / 2,3,5,8
TRI: 3,8 / 2,3,5,8 / 2,3,5,8,12
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Woodbine:
WO Race 10 The Queen's Plate (5:36 ET)
#11 Esposito 8-1
#10 Amis Gizmo 3-1
#6 Shakhimat 5-1
#4 Leavem in Malibu 7-2
Analysis: Esposito beat Alw-1 optional claimers in his first start over a synthetic surface here going seven furlongs off a 5 ½ month layoff last out for the Tom Proctor barn. It was his first start since running a game third in the Springboard Mile in his stakes debut at Remington Park last December in the slop. Five runners came out of that race to win next out including the winner Discreetness, who won the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn Park before fizzling out on the Derby trail. The runner up Suddenbreakingnews won the Southwest (G3) and was second in the Arkansas Derby (G1). It looks as if he has enough pedigree to handle the stretch out to 1 ¼ miles. He is by Ghostzapper out of a stakes placed Red Bullet mare. The Proctor barn is 17% winners moving runners from sprint to route and he should be fit off works at Fair Hill over the Tapeta surface.
Amis Gizmo won the Plate Trial last out at nine furlongs here for his fifth win in six career starts. The colt stalked the early pace and opened up heading for home, holding on to win by 2 ½ lengths over the chalk Shakhimat. He has shown some versatility, winning stakes dueling for the lead and sitting off it which should come in handy in this spot. He is out of a Victory Gallop mare so the distance should be okay. She has dropped three other winners and two are stakes winners.
Shakhimat was the beaten chalk in the Plate Trial which was his first start on the fake stuff since winning the Coronation Futurity here going nine furlongs last November. The question mark is whether he wants to go farther and what price he goes off at. The 5-1 morning line looks fair enough, but seems likely to go off lighter. He is out of a Touch Gold mare so I would think he can handle the added ground. His trainer Roger Attfield has won this race eight times, the most recent coming with Not Bourbon in 2008.
Wagering
WIN: #11 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 10,11 / 4,6,10,11
TRI: 10,11 / 4,6,10,11 / 4,6,10,11,13
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Belmont Park
R2: #6 Blush Now 8-1
R2: #7 Kabuni 12-1
R3: #3 Tale of the Heart 8-1
R4: #7 Isabelle 12-1
R5: #2 Distorted Beauty 12-1
R6: #2 Spectacular Flash 10-1
R8: #2 Enterprising 20-1
R10: #2 Satin Frost 8-1
Good luck today!
