Sunday 6/28/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[superbeets]

MLS TODAY 22:00

New York City

v

NY Red Bulls

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
					More markets

​

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT NEW YORK CITY	RECENT FORM
HDALHDAWHWAW​ Most recent​	Unknown	ADHLALALHLHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: The Red Bulls have conceded 12 goals in seven away games in the Eastern Conference

EXPERT VERDICT: New York City are hitting some good form and are unbeaten in four outings, winning three. The Red Bulls have been heading in the opposite direction and their away record is dreadful with just one win, three draws and three losses. It could be even worse after this derby.

RECOMMENDATION: New York City
3

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Blue Jays hot in Drew Hutchison's starts

The Toronto Blue Jays have won the last four ball games in which righty Drew Hutchison has started. Hutchison is slated to get the ball in Sunday's meeting with the Texas Rangers at Rogers Centre in Toronto.

Hutchison has a personal record of 3-0 in those starts with the Jays cashing as -154 (Houston Astros) and -193 (New York Mets) faves and +113 (Tampa Bay Rays) and -101 (Boston Red Sox) underdogs.

As of Saturday evening, the Jays were pegged at -181. Chi Chi Gonzalez is probable to start for the Rangers.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Under bets hot as Dodgers' Greinke sparkles

Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Zack Greinke has been on fire in four-straight starts, but his teammates are giving him little run support and Under bettors are capitalizing.

Greinke has allowed just three earned runs over the course of his past four outings, good for an ERA of 0.98. Trouble is, the Dodgers have won exactly one of those four games thanks to just five runners crossing the plate.

The righty will be eager for some run support when he takes the bump against the Giancarlo Stanton-less Miami Marlins in Florida Sunday afternoon.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mystics have yet to cover spread at home this season

The Washington Mystics might be 5-3 straight up in the early stages of the WNBA season, but they have not lined bettors' pockets when they play at home. The Mystics head into Sunday's home date with the Chicago Sky with an 0-4 record against the spread on their own floor.

The Mystics have failed on their home floor as faves of 7, 5.5, 3.5 and 11.5 points in Washington so far this season.

Oddsmakers opened the Mystics as 1-point home dogs with the Sky in town. Chicago heads in with a 3-3 ATS record on the road.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Shock remain perfect against the spread

The Tulsa Shock recorded a 71-62 win over the New York Liberty Friday evening, improving to 7-1 straight up and an unblemished 8-0 against the spread to start the WNBA season.

The Shock are now the only unbeaten team in the league at the betting window after the Connecticut Sun failed to cover the spread as 7-point home faves in an 80-76 win over the L.A. Sparks Friday.

Tulsa hosts the Seattle Storm as 11-point home faves Sunday evening.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

No shortage of value in AL East odds

If there's one division in Major League Baseball that's looking like it's going to be a complete crapshoot down the stretch, it's undoubtedly the American League East.

The days of perennial dominance by the Bronx Bombers and the boys from Beantown appear to be well in the rear-view mirror. Heading into Saturday's slate of action, the Tampa Bay Rays hold a half-game lead over the New York Yankees.

The Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays each sit one game behind the Rays to create an even bigger logjam. Picked to be the favorite heading into the 2015 campaign, the Boston Red Sox have not lived up to expectations and are dwelling in the basement with a 33-42 record.

Online shop 5dimes.com currently lists the Rays as the faves to capture the division crown, but it's unsurprisingly tight. Here's a look at the book's full list of odds:

Rays +240

Yankees +250

Blue Jays +290

Orioles +350

Red Sox +1300

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

Braves @ Pirates
Wood is 0-3, 4.81 in his last four starts; under is 4-1-1 in his last six.

Locke is 1-1, 3.38 in his last three starts; four of his last five home starts went under the total.

Pirates won eight of last ten games with Atlanta; five of last seven series tilts went over total. Pittsburgh lost five of last eight games but won last two; five of their last six went over. Braves lost last six road games, outscored 32-12.

Nationals @ Phillies
GGonzalez is 1-2, 4.15 in his last five starts (over 3-1-1). Strasburg is 2-2, 9.00 in his last five starts; over is 5-3 in his last eight.

SGonzalez is 2-2, 8.69 in his five starts (over 4-1). Correia is 0-1, 6.75 in his three starts, last two of which went over the total.

Nationals won last seven games, allowing seven runs; six of those seven games stayed under. Philly won three of last five games; eight of their last ten games went over the total. Phils lost their manager yesterday. Washington won seven of last nine games with Philly; three of last five stayed under.

Reds @ Mets
Saturday's game was suspended; will be resumed at 1-1 in top of 7th, with the regular game following.

Smith allowed four runs in three IP (79 PT) in his first MLB start.

Matz is making MLB debut; he was 7-4, 2.19 in 14 AAA starts.

Cincinnati lost seven of last nine games with the Mets; under is 6-2-2 in last ten series games. Reds won six of last nine games overall, with three of last four going over the total. Mets won last two games after losing previous seven, with ten of last 11 going under total- they're 27-11 at home.

Dodgers @ Marlins
Greinke is 0-2, 1.79 in his last nine starts; six of his last seven stayed under the total; LA scored total of nine runs in his last seven starts that weren't in Denver.

Urena is 1-1, 2.66 in his last four starts; under is 5-0-1 in his '15 starts.

Dodgers won five of last eight games with Miami; 10 of last 11 series games went over the total. LA won three of last four games; under is 5-1 in their last six. Marlins lost eight of last ten games and now Stanton is out- under is 5-2-1 in their last eight

Cubs @ Cardinals
Hammel is 2-0, 2.87 in his last five starts; five of his last six stayed under.

Martinez is 5-1, 1.72 in his last seven starts; under is 5-0-1 in his last six.

Cubs lost five of last six games with St Louis; four of those six went over total. Chicago lost last four games, scoring total of five runs- under is 10-3-1 in last fourteen. St Louis won seven of last eight games (over 5-2-1).

Diamondbacks @ Padres
Anderson is 2-0, 1.45 in his last three starts that weren't in Denver; six of his last eight starts stayed under.

Despaigne is 0-2, 5.40 in his last four starts; three of his last four home starts went over the total.

Arizona lost three of last four games with San Diego; three of those four went over total. D'backs lost four of last five; five of their last seven games went over total. Padres are 5-7 since changing managers, but won last two.

Rockies @ Giants
Kendrick is 1-3, 5.40 in his last five starts; five of his last seven went over.

Bumgarner is 0-2, 2.93 in his last three starts; they all stayed under. Giants scored total of two runs in the three games.

Giants are 7-4 in last 11 games, but lost ten of their last 14 at home. Over is 5-2-1 in their last eight games overall. Rockies won five of last seven games after losing seven of previous eight- 11 of their last 12 games went over. Giants lost eight of last 12 v Colorado; five of last six series games went over.

American League
Rangers @ Blue Jays
Gonzalez is 2-2, 2.27 in his five starts, four of which stayed under.

Hutchison is 3-0, 0.43 in his last three home starts; four of his last five starts overall went over.

Texas lost nine of last 12 games with Toronto; nine of last 12 series games stayed under. Rangers lost six of last seven games, outscored 40-21; over is 3-1-1 in their last five games. Blue Jays are 6-4 in last ten games; over is 7-4-1 in their last twelve games.

White Sox @ Tigers
Samardzija is 1-0, 3.00 in his last three starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five. He allowed a first-inning run in nine of his last 11 starts.

Price is 3-0, 1.21 in his last four starts, three of which went over.

White Sox lost three of last four games with Detroit; all four went over total. Chicago are 4-6 in last ten games; over is 3-0-2 in their last five. Detroit won four of last six games-- their last nine games went over the total.

Indians @ Orioles
Anderson blanked Tampa Bay for 7.2 innings (94 PT) in his first MLB start. Bauer is 1-2, 8.56 in his last three starts; under is 5-2-1 in his last eight.

Tillman is 3-0, 6.98 in his last four starts; last three went over. Orioles scored 43 runs in his last four starts. Jimenez is 3-0, 4.23 in his last five starts, last three of which went over the total.

Cleveland lost four of last five games with Baltimore; seven of last eight games stayed under total. Indians lost five of last seven games- three of their last four went over. Baltimore won five of last six games; three of its last five went over.

Red Sox @ Rays
Masterson is making first start since May 12; he is 0-2, 6.86 in his last four starts- his last three road starts all went over.

Archer is 6-0, 1.99 in his last eight starts; over is 2-0-2 in his last three.

Boston lost five of last seven games with Tampa Bay; seven of last eight in series stayed under. Red Sox won four of last six road games; five of their last eight games overall went over. Rays lost four of last six games; under is 6-1-1 in their last eight.

Bronx @ Astros
Pineda is 1-2, 9.42 in his last three starts; five of his last seven went over.

McHugh is 2-0, 3.21 in his last two starts; his last six went over the total.

Astros lost six of last nine games; four of their last five stayed under. Houston lost three of last four games with Bronx Bombers- 10 of last 12 series tilts went under the total. Bronx won three of last four games- eight of their last ten games stayed under.

Royals @ A's
Guthrie is 1-2, 6.19 in his last three starts; under is 4-0-1 in his last five.

Chavez is 2-1, 4.88 in his last four starts, last three of which went over- A's scored 24 runs in his last two starts, 17 in the eight before that.

Royals won seven of last eight games with Oakland; KC won nine of its last 12 games overall. A's lost last two days; they're 9-4 in last 13- under is 5-1 in their last six home games. Oakland missed injured leadoff hitter Burns the last two days.

Mariners @ Angels
Hernandez is 2-3, 6.75 in his last five starts; three of his last four stayed under.

Santiago is 0-1, 2.66 in his last four outings; five of his last seven starts went under the total.

Seattle lost five of last seven games with the Angels; eight of last ten series games went under total. Mariners lost four of last six games. Angels won four of last six home games; six of their last seven overall went under.

Interleague
Twins @ Brewers
Milone is 2-0, 2.25 in his last three starts; five of his last seven went over.

Fiers is 1-2, 5.24 in his last four starts; seven of his last nine stayed under.

Twins lost four of last six games with Milwaukee; five of last eight in series went over total. Minnesota lost four of its last seven games. Milwaukee won three of its last five games; five of its last seven stayed under.

Win-loss records this year for team with this starting pitcher:
Wsh-Phil-- GGonzalez 9-5 Strasburg 4-7; SGonzalez 2-3 Correia 1-2
Atl-Pitt-- Wood 5-10; Locke 8-6
Cin-NY-- Smith 0-1; Matz 0-0
LA-Mia-- Greinke 9-6; Urena 2-4
Chi-StL-- Hammel 7-7; Martinez 9-3
Az-SD-- Anderson 5-9; Despaigne 5-6
Col-SF-- Kendrick 4-11; Bumgarner 8-7

Tex-Tor-- Gonzalez 3-2; Hutchison 10-5
Chi-Det-- Samardzija 7-8; Price 12-3
Clev-Balt-- Anderson 1-0 Bauer 7-7; Tillman 7-7 Jimenez 8-6
Bos-TB-- Masterson 3-4; Archer 11-5
NY-Hst-- Pineda 9-5; McHugh 10-5
KC-A's-- Guthrie 8-6; Chavez 4-8
Sea-LAA-- Hernandez 11-4; Santiago 6-7

Min-Milw-- Milone 5-3; Fiers 7-8

Times this starting pitcher allowed a run in first inning:
Wsh-Phil-- GGonzalez 9-5 Strasburg 3-11; SGonzalez 4-5 Correia 2-3
Atl-Pitt-- Wood 5-15; Locke 4-14
Cin-NY-- Smith 0-1; Matz 0-0
LA-Mia-- Greinke 5-15; Urena 3-6
Chi-StL-- Hammel 4-14; Martinez 2-14
Az-SD-- Anderson 4-14; Despaigne 4-11
Col-SF-- Kendrick 8-15; Bumgarner 2-15

Tex-Tor-- Gonzalez 1-5; Hutchison 5-15
Chi-Det-- Samardzija 9-15; Price 3-15
Clev-Balt-- Anderson 1-0 Bauer 2-14; Tillman 7-7 Jimenez 2-14
Bos-TB-- Masterson 3-7; Archer 5-16
NY-Hst-- Pineda 5-14; McHugh 5-15
KC-A's-- Guthrie 3-14; Chavez 2-12
Sea-LAA-- Hernandez 3-15; Santiago 3-13

Min-Milw-- Milone 2-8; Fiers 1-15

Umpires
Wsh-Phil-- 10 of last 12 Emmel games went over total. Four of last five Baker games stayed under.
Atl-Pitt-- Seven of last nine Hoye games went over.
Cin-NY-- Six of last eight Hickox games went over.
LA-Mia-- Eight of last ten Tichenor games stayed under.
Chi-StL-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five Miller games.
Az-SD-- Under is 3-0-1 in last four Hoberg games.
Col-SF-- Last four Gibson games stayed under total.

Tex-Tor-- Underdogs won 11 of 14 TBarrett games.
Chi-Det-- Last four Kellogg games went over the total.
Clev-Balt-- Five of last seven Vanover games stayed under. Over is 5-3 in last eight Kulpa games.
Bos-TB-- Over is 5-3-1 in last nine HGibson games
NY-Hst-- May has umped four games behind this year; last two ended 1-0.
KC-A's-- Home side won last nine Reynolds games; under is 3-1-1 in last five.
Sea-LAA-- Favorites won five of last six Blaser games.

Min-Milw-- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven LBarrett games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Auto: Toyota/Save Mart 350
By Micah Roberts

We've got a little something different in the Sprint Cup series this week that should appeal to a larger audience than normal. For most auto racing fans across the world, they like viewing races on a road course or street circuit, but 34 of the 36 Cup races here in America are on some variation of an oval with continuous left-turns -- just going round and round. This week we get both left and right turns at Sonoma Raceway.

Yes, it's NASCAR road racing in Northern California wine country, where the true skills of a drivers' racing ability come to the forefront like no other in the series. There are only two road course races per season, but between Sonoma and Watkins Glen, this is the much more technical course because of the 160 feet of elevation changes from its highest to lowest point along the 10-turn course. Watkins Glen runs much faster with longer straightaways where Sonoma has tight turns that force drivers to slow down like no where else.

One of the unique features about road course racing is the strategy where teams almost run the race backwards with pit sequences over the course of 110 laps so they can position themselves the best to be as close to the front as possible on their final fuel run. Passing is difficult, but those that do it the best continually find themselves in contention and it usually seems to be the same drivers that get it done the best.

The driver that has had the most success on road courses in NASCAR history has been Jeff Gordon with nine -- five at Sonoma which is considered his home track since he grew up in nearby Vallejo. He hasn't won on a road course since 2006, but he has been runner-up in three of his past four Sonoma starts.

Gordon hasn't won a race this season in what is supposed to be the final Cup season of his career, but this week looks like his best chance. The reason is kind of simple: all of his top competitors that have kept him from winning a road race lately are out of the series. Marcos Ambrose went back to Australia, Juan Pablo Montoya went to IndyCar, Robby Gordon left for other ventures and Tony Stewart is a shadow of his former self. The competition has dwindled, and while several other drivers have eventually become very good on the roads over their careers, others such as Dale Earnhardt Jr., Denny Hamlin and Matt Kenseth haven't had much success.

The top candidates to derail Gordon's first win of the season, and an automatic ticket into the Chase as only 11 races remain until the tournament begins, are Clint Bowyer, Carl Edwards and Kurt Busch. Each have won at Sonoma once, but more importantly they've been competitive over the long haul. Martin Truex Jr., who has been rolling lately on the ovals, won in 2013, but he's still only averaged an 18th-place finish over nine starts.

While Gordon is the all-time best at Sonoma, since NASCAR started keeping 'Loop' data in 2005 that rates a driver on several categories at each track, Kurt Busch has been rated as the best (Gordon is No. 2). Busch won his only Sonoma race in 2011, but he's been equally good on the course for three different teams showing that he can wheel just about anything on the layout to a good finish.

The dominators on the season so far have been Kevin Harvick with two wins and Jimmie Johnson with four, but their edge is completely erased here this week. Johnson is one of those drivers that has advanced on roads very well as time has gone by, including a win in 2010. He's finished ninth or better in his past six Sonoma starts after having only one top-five finish in his first seven starts. Harvick was runner-up in 2007, but has been 10th or worse in his past three starts, including 20th last season in his first year driving for Stewart Haas Racing.

The best long shot this week is Greg Biffle, and not just because he's finished ninth or better in his past three Sonoma starts, but because Roush Fenway Racing have a nice road course set-up for their cars. Edwards won last season for RFR and was third in two of the previous three seasons. The RFR organization knows this may be their best chance to have a driver represented in this years Chase. Win and your in, but Gordon's No. 24 is in the same boat, and I like Gordon in a desperate mode this week a little more.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #24 Jeff Gordon (6/1)
2) #41 Kurt Busch (7/1)
3) #15 Clint Bowyer (15/1)
4) #19 Carl Edwards (12/1)
5) #16 Greg Biffle (35/1)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Drivers to Watch - Sonoma

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series
Toyota – Save Mart 350
Sonoma Raceway – Sonoma, CA
Odds to Win Race

The drivers head to Sonoma Raceway this week for one of the two unique runs on a “road course”, with the other being Watkins Glen. Currently they run on a 1.99-mile course and go 110 laps (218.9 miles) before crowning a winner here. One unique part of the road courses are that some drivers, also called “road ringers” come to compete only on these types of tracks.

There has been a ton of different winners here in the past decade and there hasn’t been a repeat victor at Sonoma since Jeff Gordon won in both 2004 and 2006. Overall, there are five different men who have multiple wins at this event, and besides Gordon, Tony Stewart (2001, 2005) is the only other active racer to have done so. Carl Edwards was able to earn one of his 24 career victories here last year when he dominated the track in 2:51:30, posting an average speed of 76.583 MPH; the slowest speed since 2011.

Let’s take a look through the entrant list and find some racers who could come through on the road course this week.

Drivers to Watch

Jeff Gordon (6/10) - Gordon earns the best odds here as he has dominated this course in his 22 career starts, winning five times with 14 top-five finishes, but has not taken the victory since 2006. He came in first during three straight attempts (1998-2000) earlier in his career and has an amazing average finish of 8.0. Gordon ranks amongst the best in NASCAR in plenty of stats at the course, tallying a driver rating of 103.4 (second-best) and owns an average green flag speed of 89.932 MPH (third-fastest). The 43-year-old is in the midst of his final season, and he has nine top-10s on the year, but should be able to put up one of his best performances on a course where he has more experience and success than any other driver.

Kurt Busch (6/1) - Busch is coming off of his second win of this year after starting in 24th in Michigan and then leading for just six laps in the rainy race. He has the best driver rating (106.5) when at Sonoma and owns one victory (2011) when he finished in 2:54:10 and averaged 75.411 MPH. Busch is currently in third in the Sprint Cup standing, mainly due to his two wins, but has done worse than 15th just once while finishing in the top-five six times over 12 starts. The 36-year-old has been in the top-10 in 207-of-519 (40%) career races, coming away with the win in 27 of those. Busch should be able to piggy-back his nice run at Michigan International Speedway and once again perform well at this road course.

Tony Stewart (18/1) - Stewart has not had the best of seasons in 2015, ranking 26th in the Sprint Cup Series behind just one top-10 finish. What gets him a spot here and higher odds from Vegas is the prominence he’s had on road courses, winning seven times between Sonoma and Watkins Glen while last being a victor here in 2005. His average running position of 12.0 at Sonoma ranks second-best and he has 274 career quality passes on this road course (second-most). He has not been the same in the past few years, but has finished in the top-21 in four of the last five races and should perform better this week in Sonoma, a course that has been good to him in the past.

Kasey Kahne (20/1) - Kahne has had a solid 2015 campaign and sits in 12th in the Sprint Cup Series thanks to six top-nine finishes with one pole. That pole came last week in Michigan, but he was unable to hold the position, eventually ending in 15th after leading just one lap. His driver rating (85.5) puts him as 10th-best and if he is behind late he could get back up to the front with 242 career quality passes in his time at Sonoma (fourth-most). He used his skills on this type of course to grab one of his 17 career wins when he took down the win in 2009 at a race extended due to a green-white-checker finish. Kahne was unable to capitalize on his pole last week, but he has always done well here and will not make that mistake again if he gets a nice starting position.

Casey Mears (100/1) - Mears has just one top-10 finish in 2015, but has been near the top group plenty of times with a top-20 finish in four of his last six times out. The 37-year-old has been around for a long time with his debut coming back in 2001, but still has a mere one win to his name which came at the 2007 Coca-Cola 600, but he does have three poles and 51 career finishes within the top-10. Mears has finished in the top-16 at each of his last six visits between Watkins Glen and Sonoma and is coming off of a 13th here in the 2014 installment of the race. Look for the veteran to improve on his recent success on road courses and jump into the top-10 this week with a chance to surprise many.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Running Aces

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 9 - Post: 8:56 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 81 - Purse:$4000 - FILLIES & MARES N/W $2000 IN LAST 4 STARTS AE: CLAIMING $5000 W/ALLOWANCES RUNNING ACES MN-SIRED ALLOWED: 1 EXTRA PM WIN; 30% ON ALL CONDITIONS ADDITIONAL 50% CLAIMING ALLOWANCE MN = MINNESOTA SIRED L = LASIX B = BUTE F = BANAMINE K = KETOPROFEN


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 6 DRAWING DEAD 7/2


# 2 HOTMONES 5/2


# 1 PLACE AT THE BEACH 9/2

If you want a really good play today, feast your eyes on DRAWING DEAD. With a 84 average class statistic, this harness racer has one of the most favorable class edges in the bunch. We're not going to pass on this mare given one of the most solid driver/trainer figures around. Top driver-trainer combo, with one of the most favorable return on investment figures in this group. HOTMONES - Had one of the strongest speed figs of the group of animals in her last contest. I'd recommend using in your wagers. This standardbred will be greatly helped with Roland piloting. 21 percent winners the past month. PLACE AT THE BEACH - A great play in here as she has one of the highest winning stats in the field of starters as well as tremendous credentials all around. Composite pace ratings say this outing should shape up nicely for this mare. Looking for a big effort.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Saratoga Harness

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 7 - Post: 2:45 - 1 1/16 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 93 - Purse:$18000 - OPEN HANDICAP POST POSITION NOS. 1-2, 3-4 & 5-7 DRAWN *** 1 1/16 MILES *** SARATOGA


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 3 CASH ME OUT 10/1


# 7 TWEET ME 6/1


# 5 MIKEY HANOVER 2/1


CASH ME OUT is the clear stand out play in the eyes of the number crunching team and the morning line makes this a dynamite value wager. Seems to have a very good class advantage based on the opponents he has faced. Devaux knows this horse well. Outstanding in the money record when in the sulky. TWEET ME - Worth serious consideration here given the ratings in the speed fig department alone. Has a substantial shot in this contest, if she can race to her back racing class. MIKEY HANOVER - Don't count out this entrant, especially with Beckwith as the trainer. In the money pct is tremendous. Performing very well, recorded a very compelling TrackMaster Speed Rating in his most recent gathering (93).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Chippewa Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 8 - Derby - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $7000 Class Rating: 67

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, NORTH DAKOTA GRASS ROOTS DERBY - FOR THREE YEAR OLD NORTH DAKOTA CERTIFIED / MIXED BREED TOP 8 QUALIFIERS PREFERED.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 1 SHESA EASY VICTORY 9/2


# 6 RAINY SUMMER DAY GAL 2/1


# 8 YEAH IM MY T FINE 10/1


I give the nod to SHESA EASY VICTORY here. Is a solid contender based on numbers recorded lately under today's conditions. Put up a solid Equibase Speed Figure last time out. The average Equibase class figure alone makes this entrant a solid choice. RAINY SUMMER DAY GAL - Looks decent versus this group of horses and ought to be one of the leaders. The handler wheels this entrant right back to race again.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 7 - Maiden Special Weight - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $48000 Class Rating: 85

FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 118 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 4 ABERCORN 5/1


# 7 MR. KISSES 20/1


# 10 LAW MASTER 9/2


I give my vote to ABERCORN here. The offspring of Brooks 'n Down have the most favorable returns in this field for first time starters. His conditioner has done admirably with starters going to the post for the first time. Strong sire data will play a key role in this colt moving well. MR. KISSES - The offspring of Big Drama have produced solid figs racing in their first asking, combining for a +57 return on investment. LAW MASTER - He has been running quite well as of late while recording solid Equibase Speed Figures. Will probably compete solidly in the early speed battle which bodes well with this group of horses.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Mountaineer - Race #3 - Post: 7:44pm - Claiming - 4.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 87

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#4 STRIKE THE NOTE (ML=9/2)
#7 JUST A MORGAN (ML=8/1)
#2 RED DWARF (ML=8/1)


STRIKE THE NOTE - Won his last after shipping in. I like him again. This gelding is in excellent physical condition right now. Finished first last race out and comes back promptly. This gelding should be in top form, this far into his form cycle. When I handicap a race on the grass, I think sometimes class ratings are more important than speed figs. This mount has the highest average class in the entire field. JUST A MORGAN - Looking at today's Equibase class figure, this thoroughbred is meeting an easier field than last race out at Mountaineer. This one could be a possible overlay in this event at odds of 8/1. Finished fifth in last race at Mountaineer but was close at the finish line. RED DWARF - This front-runner should benefit from this shorter trip. This horse should be in tip-top shape, this far into his form cycle.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 SWEAR (ML=7/5), #1A MANAUS (ML=7/5), #3 HENNYVILLE SLUGGER (ML=5/2),

SWEAR - Hard to keep chasing this sort of 'bridesmaid' horse. This mount ran a common speed fig last time around the track. He shouldn't show signs of improvement and will likely lose in today's race running that number. MANAUS - This pony hasn't been on the track since May 25th. Not even any works. HENNYVILLE SLUGGER - This horse showed little last time out of the box finishing fifth. Don't expect improvement today. Pace makes the race. Hard for this speedball to be able to manage the suicidal fractions from the rest of this field.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - STRIKE THE NOTE - Playing the top earnings per start thoroughbred is an angle which won't steer you wrong in the long run. I'm betting on this one.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Put your money on #4 STRIKE THE NOTE on the nose if you can get odds of 2/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
4 with [2,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [2,4,7] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Prairie Mdws - Race #9 - Post: 4:33pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,940 Class Rating: 40

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#7 DUE TO GRACE (ML=8/1)
#6 LOVE TAPPER (ML=9/2)


DUE TO GRACE - Moquett drops her down to this level. You don't need too much more handicapping knowledge to figure that this animal has a shot at this level. Have to like the way Moquett has raced this filly back into shape off the layoff. Horse is well spotted in this sprint and I think she'll run well today. LOVE TAPPER - This mare is back in a race very quick. This is a great angle - Sprinters that come back in less than 10 days after a race. A good sign of a sharp and ready racehorse. Looking at today's class rating, this thoroughbred is up against an easier bunch than in the last race at Prairie Mdws. A thoroughbred coming back this quickly after a strong outing is a good signal.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 COCO'S EDGE (ML=3/1), #4 WIND AND FIRE (ML=7/2), #2 STORMY EQUINOX (ML=5/1),

COCO'S EDGE - Hasn't been on the Prairie Mdws oval in the last 3 weeks. Cause for some concern. Prairie Mdws isn't nice digs to this pony. WIND AND FIRE - The Brain always tells me to stay away from ponies in sprint affairs that haven't hit the board in short distance races lately. I'd like to see more hospitable recent efforts with oddsmaker's morning line of 7/2. STORMY EQUINOX - 5/1 is not priced right for any horse in a sprint of 6 furlongs that hasn't hit the board in a sprint affair lately. Difficult to play any racer to turn things around if there is no large gain to taking the chance. Finished fourth in her most recent race with a common speed rating. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to triumph after that in this field.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #7 DUE TO GRACE to win if we can get at least 3/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [6,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Belmont Park

RACE #3 - BELMONT PARK - 2:22 PM EASTERN POST

The Dancin Renee Stakes

6.0 FURLONGS DIRT FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $100,000.00 PURSE

#6 LA VERDAD
#2 MAKE THE MOMENT
#4 MISS DA POINT
#1 COURT DANCER

Here in just the 3nd running of this stakes race for New York Breds, which is named in honor of Dancin Renee, a graded stakes winner, who was the 1997 New York Horse of the Year, #6 LA VERDAD returns for her 2nd running of this stakes test, having won this race last year. She takes a class drop (-7), is the overall speed leader in this stakes field sprinting at 6.0 furlongs on the dirt, and has excellent early speed abilities to compliment for this sprint. She's hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in four of her last five outings, winning three times, including back-to-back "POWER RUN WINS" in her last two starts. #2 MAKE THE MOMENT, a 10-01 BOMB, has produced "POWER RUNS" in five straight, hitting the board in four, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in her last start.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Balmoral: Sunday 6/28 Analysis
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS

Race 7 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (26 - 40 / $94.80): MYSTICAL WISHES (8th)

Spot Play: MOON BAY DANCER (5th)


Race 1

(3) CAPTAIN GREEDY should offer the better price of the contenders and has been gaining confidence with each of his last two victories. (2) FOX VALLEY QATAR has now made breaks in two straight. The 2-year-old champ cannot beat the top choice if he makes another miscue. (1) SOUTHERN SPECIAL might have taken a step in the right direction last start showing a big burst of speed.

Race 2

In a very difficult race to handicap, (6) DIAMOND DESIRE IVY should be in a nice spot early on and finds a weak field. (10) HARPER VALLEY BOY pacer has more ability than most of the field but has lacked pop late at times and needs to find a way into the race. (2) THE DALI'S LLAMA looks terrible on paper but was improved in the qualifier.

Race 3

(8) LOVE U FOREVER well bred filly has lots of upside and should only get better with every start. (10) CRAZY PONDA two-year-old trotter makes his career debut for proven connections but could need a start. (4) CONTINENTAL DIVED impeccably bred trotter just needs to stay trotting for a chance.

Race 4

(5) FOX VALLEY SERRANO freshman pacer was an 85k yearling purchase who comes off two nice qualifiers. (3) SAND VIKING flashed some ability so far and could be the sleeper in the race at a price. (2) J B'S HERO has room to improve in his second career start; threat.

Race 5

(5) MOON BAY DANCER pacing mare makes her first start in a new barn; big chance. (3) WESTERN BOUDOIR set a lifetime mark last out second start in a new barn; threat. (7) MISS PAT WEISAR has been sharp in recent and is one of few threats in the race.

Race 6

(9) FOX VALLEY AUBRY has rebounded nicely in her last two after being empty in her prior starts. The filly can beat this bunch with an effort similar to earlier in the year. (8) LEX filly pacer is the horse to beat and will look to ration out her speed; fires early. (1) SPORTSMUFFLER looks to be in line for a great trip up close.

Race 7

(7) NITTY GRITTY went a big effort last out parked the mile just missing against the same group. (9) FOX VALLEY PIPA needs to be closer turning for home but has the best closing ability in the field. (8) ROCKNROLL CRYSTAL filly pacer needs a smooth trip for a chance to hit the ticket at a price.

Race 8

(10) MYSTICAL WISHES has had a very disappointing start to the year, however the trotting mare finds a very soft field to get back on track. (6) HERE'S JOHNNY raced well last out closing up good ground late and finds a weaker bunch. (2) MY MINI SNICKERS filly owns a good burst of speed and will look to shake loose late for a piece; use underneath.

Race 9

(7) FOX VALLEY NORMAN pacer takes a huge drop in class for a tag and should probably be considered the horse to beat. (5) WESTERN DEAL is just now back in racing shape and has done very well at this level when right. (1) NANCYS SKYSCAPE has just been racing evenly; command a price.

Race 10

(7) WINDOW WIPER had no shot last out after being shuffled back but did come flying late. (10) JUST BY DESIGN mare owns all the back class but will need a smooth trip from a low percentage pilot. (4) WINGS seven-year-old mare was improved last out after some dull efforts; threat.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Sunday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Aqueduct (3rd) Joe's Legacy, 3-1
(4th) Free Fighter, 5-1

Belmont Park (5th) Louisa Girl, 5-1
(7th) Bobby C, 3-1

Belterra (1st) Shambala, 7-2
(6th) It's All About Joy, 7-2


Canterbury Park (5th) Matted in Gold, 3-1
(8th) Clever Expansion, 5-1


Emerald Downs (1st) Ready Set Jet, 3-1
(6th) Wide Rule, 4-1


Gulfstream Park (3rd) Stone Jak, 3-1
(8th) Island Dude, 9-2


Hastings Park (5th) Royal Briar, 9-2
(6th) Brother Chuncky, 4-1


Lone Star Park (6th) Misterbulltoyou, 3-1
(9th) Tight Britches, 3-1


Monmouth Park (4th) Bull Ensign, 7-2
(5th) Sandbag, 3-1


Mountaineer (7th) Cadcam, 3-1
(9th) Velvet Halo, 6-1


Parx Racing (2nd) Steph Got Even, 9-2
(5th) Don't Think Twice, 5-1


Pleasanton (4th) Awesome Silver, 5-1
(7th) Trappers Magic, 3-1


Prairie Meadows (1st) Zack's Billie, 4-1
(5th) Oprah's a Talker, 5-1


Presque Isle Downs (2nd) Race Hunter, 3-1
(7th) Cherry Road, 7-2


Santa Anita (6th) Air Pocket, 5-1
(7th) Cattle Queen, 7-2


Woodbine (4th) Hesa Big Dude, 6-1
(8th) New Threads, 7-2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB Sunday's Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers

Mariners at Angels – 3:35 PM EST

Seattle’s offense continues to struggle, scoring three runs or less for the eighth time in the past 11 games after falling to Los Angeles on Saturday, 4-2. The Mariners have dropped five of eight meetings this season with the Angels, while splitting its last 18 games overall. The Angels are riding a 9-2 stretch to the ‘under’ in the past 11 contests, including a 4-1 ‘under’ mark on their current homestand.

Robinson Cano left Saturday’s loss after getting drilled in the head by an errant throw while sitting in the dugout, as the Mariners’ second baseman is listed as day-to-day. Out of Seattle’s three wins against Los Angeles this season, two of those victories have come from ace Felix Hernandez (10-4, 3.24 ERA), who takes the mound in the series finale.

Hernandez has failed to lose consecutive starts this season, coming off a 4-1 home defeat as a -150 favorite to the Royals in his past outing. The former Cy Young award winner allowed at least four earned runs for the fourth time in his last eight starts, but the Mariners own a solid 5-1 record when King Felix starts away from Safeco Field. In two victories over the Angels, Hernandez has given up one earned run in each win, while the M’s are 7-0 in his past seven outings against Los Angeles since the start of 2014.

Hector Santiago (4-4, 2.68 ERA) seeks his first victory since May 29, as the Angels’ southpaw picked up a no-decision in a 4-3 home win over the Astros in his past outing. Santiago allowed less than one earned run for the eighth time this season, as the Angels have won four of the southpaw’s last five home outings. In two starts last season against the Mariners, Santiago struggled by giving up four earned runs in each outing, as the Angels posted an 0-2 mark in those games.

Royals at Athletics – 4:05 PM EST

Kansas City goes for the three-game sweep of Oakland, while looking to improve to 5-1 in the season series against the A’s. The Royals limited the A’s to four hits in Saturday’s 3-2 victory as +135 underdogs, the fourth win in the last five road games. Oakland entered the weekend on a five-game winning streak, but are in danger of suffering its first home sweep since losing all three games to the White Sox at the Coliseum last month.

Jesse Chavez (4-6. 2.90 ERA) finally received decent run support in his last two starts, as Oakland scored 24 runs in wins over San Diego and Texas. Chavez shut down the Padres in his previous home outing on June 17, tossing seven scoreless of three-hit ball in a 16-2 blowout. The right-hander has given up just two runs (one earned) in his previous three starts at the Coliseum, while the A’s are 4-8 in Chavez’s 12 starts this season.

The Royals counter with Jeremy Guthrie (5-5, 5.90 ERA), who allowed at least six earned runs for the third time this season in a 7-0 loss at Seattle. Guthrie has lost his last three road outings, as he yielded six earned runs and nine hits in five innings in the setback to the Mariners, while Kansas City has scored a total of three runs in those three defeats. Since last July, Kansas City owns a solid 7-1 record when Guthrie starts following a loss in his last start, which includes a 2-0 mark on the road in this situation this season.

Rockies at Giants – 4:05 PM EST

Colorado and San Francisco have played a pair of exciting games so far at AT&T Park, as each of the first two contests finished ‘over’ the total. Following an 8-6 victory by the Rockies in the series opener, the Giants bounced back on Saturday in spite of losing Tim Lincecum to a liner to the elbow, as San Francisco rallied for a 7-5 triumph. The Giants improved to 4-7 this season against the Rockies, while beating Colorado at AT&T Park for the first time in five tries.

Madison Bumgarner (7-4, 3.04 ERA) faces the Rockies for the first time this season, while attempting to snap a three-start winless streak. The Giants’ ace has turned in three quality outings during this stretch, but San Francisco’s offense hasn’t helped out Bumgarner by scoring a measly two runs in the three losses. San Francisco owns a 3-5 record in Bumgarner’s eight home starts, including four straight losses in the home favorite role.

The Rockies send out Kyle Kendrick (3-9, 5.96 ERA), who is coming off only his second victory since an opening day win at Milwaukee, as Colorado outlasted Arizona, 10-5 last Tuesday. Kendrick has given up at least four earned runs in five of the past seven trips to the mound, but four of those starts took place at Coors Field. The right-hander is seeing the Giants for the second time this season, allowing four earned runs in 6.1 innings of an 11-8 home loss on May 22.