NBA ATS update at 30-game mark
By Tony Mejia
Although the Warriors bring 27 wins to the table on Sunday afternoon as they look to improve to on the league's best record, Friday's win at Detroit dropped them to 15-15-1 against the spread. Golden State ended a run of five consecutive games without a cover in Saturday's romp 135-90 rout of Portland, so oddsmakers have done a nice job pricing games out of range for the superteam.
They've been a double-digit favorite in 16 of the last 18 games and seven of their last nine road stops, but they're closing out a three-game road swing at Cleveland where they'll be favored by -2.5, their lowest figure of the season, eclipsing the -4 they laid at the Clippers on Dec. 7.
With one-third of the regular-season in the books, what better time than now to examine how NBA teams have fared against the spread? Favorites typically haven’t fared well, although there have been a few that have shined. Here's a team-by-team look:
Atlanta: The Hawks started 9-2 overall and 8-3 ATS, but have gone 6-13 against the number since. With Paul Millsap back from a hip injury and Dwight Howard re-emerging a force, look for this group to start turning things around to climb over. 500, somewhere they haven't been since December began.
Boston: The Celtics were the betting favorite to not only win the Atlantic, but also to finish second to the Cavs in the Eastern Conference. They’ve won consecutive games, but had basically been a .500 team straight up and against the spread before putting together a four-game winning streak last week that ended Friday night against the Thunder at home. Boston is just 6-6 (3-9 ATS) at TD Garden and have failed to cover in six of its last seven there. They'll have plenty of chances to bolster that mark since 15 of their next 20 between now and Feb. 5 will come at home.
Brooklyn: Despite being projected to supplant the 76ers as the NBA’s worst team, the Nets covered six of their first seven and have only had one streak of failed covers, a five-game skid from Nov. 18-27, prior to last week's losses to Golden State and Cleveland.
Charlotte: The Southeast Division leaders snapped a season-high four-game skid without a cover by pulling off an upset at Atlanta and now have a chance to notch a season-high five-game winning streak as a road favorite at Brooklyn and Orlando this coming week. The Hornets will be home for their last two games of 2016, hosting the Cavs on New Year's Eve. They're 0-2 (0-1-1 ATS) against Cleveland this season, but will be hosting for the first time.
Chicago: The Bulls open the week having dropped nine of 11 against the number since Dec. 3, a rough stretch that has seen them go 3-8 outright entering their visit to San Antonio. We’ll see if Chicago’s lack of collective athleticism continues to be a hinderance. The under has come in six straight times and is 20-9 in Bulls games entering Christmas Day.
Cleveland: The Cavs have been streaky in covering the number, putting together runs of five consecutive games failing to do so and five straight where they dominated and cashed. They're 4-5 as a double-digit favorite and have assembled an NBA-best 15-2 mark and been favored at home all season until the Warriors game. They'll wrap a three-game stretch at the Q against Golden State but will be back home one last time before the new year, hosting Boston on Dec. 29.
Dallas: The Mavericks are 10-5 ATS since Nov. 27 after opening 4-12. With Dirk Nowitzki finally back, look for this group to continue improving. The under has prevailed in 17 of 30. Owners of the West's worst road record, the Mavs close the month with three of four on the road but have plenty of momentum after scoring outright upset wins over the Blazers and Clippers.
Denver: The Nuggets covered 10 of 14 to start the season and have seen the over prevail in seven straight entering their Dec. 26 visit to the Clippers. With Gary Harris back, this is a group that should continue improving as they emerge as a factor in the race for the West's No. 8 seed.
Detroit: The Pistons are in the midst of a five-game losing streak, their worst run of the season. They covered against the Warriors in Friday's 119-113 loss to snap a stretch of four consecutive double-digits losses. With division mates Cleveland and Milwaukee up next, Detroit has to get its act together or risk falling deeper into the Central basement.
Golden State: The Warriors are 11-12 ATS as a double-digit favorite, but have won their last two home games by a combined 75 points. The Warriors' five largest wins this season have all come at Oracle, which is something to keep in mind when they get back from Cleveland since nine of 10 from Dec. 28-Jan. 18 will be played at home.
Houston: The Rockets have been fantastic for most of the season. They won 10 consecutive games entering last week before suffering tight losses against the Spurs and Grizzlies. With five of its next six games between Dec. 26-Jan. 5 coming at home, it's worth knowing that Houston has been most vulnerable at the Toyota Center (10-3 SU, 6-5 ATS).
Indiana: This group opened 2-10 against the spread, but had been at about .500 since then until their current run of three straight failures that they'll take into their second and final Chicago visit of the season. If Myles Turner continues improving, they should become reliable, but still haven't covered more than two straight games all season.
L.A. Clippers: After a 10-1 start where they covered the number nine times, the Clips have come back down to earth and have actually had three separate runs of four games or more where they failed to cover the spread. Life has gotten far more complicated without Blake Griffin, so judging by the fact they're just a 6.5-point favorite against the Lakers, the days of seeing them as a double-digit favorite are over until their All-Star power forward returns. They're 5-5 in that role.
L.A. Lakers: The Lakers opened the season on a fantastic run, covering in eight of 10, but opened December by failing to cover in eight straight games, all outright losses. They snapped that streak with a Dec. 16 win in Philly, but enter the Christmas clash with the Clippers 1-12 on the month (3-10 ATS).
Memphis: Even without Mike Conley, the Grizzlies persevered and have been one of the NBA’s best surprises as David Fizdale has hit the ground running in his first year as head coach. Now that Conley has returned, huge wins in Detroit and home against Houston suggest the team responded positively to Fizdale's criticism of the team's veteran leaders. Eight of Memphis' last nine games entering the week have gone under the posted total.
Miami: Fizdale was a long-time assistant here before moving on, and the Heat certainly miss him, among others. Despite their struggles, the Heat have had a pair of four-game streaks where they were able to cover the number despite not having a single run of more than two outright wins.
Milwaukee: As has been the case straight up, the Bucks have been a .500 team but continue on the rise since Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jabari Parker are making tremendous progress. After sweeping the Bulls and being swept by the Cavs in a series of home-and-homes, the Bucks will attempt to complete another sweep against Washington as they close 2016 with four road games in six nights. The over has prevailed in seven of the last nine Milwaukee games.
Minnesota: Tom Thibodeau’s squad failed to cover in five of their first six and have had three separate streaks of three or more where they didn’t come through for backers. The Timberwolves put together a five-game run of covers that ended in Friday's home loss to Sacramento and hope to continue a resurgence as an underdog at Oklahoma City on Christmas Day. They've covered their last four as a 'dog, barking enough to win outright twice.
New Orleans: Now that Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans are healthy, Anthony Davis has help. The Pelicans are 4-9 over their last 13, so they’re way behind in digging out of the hole they've been in. New Orleans is 1-1 on its current homestand and willl close the month against the Mavs, Clips and Knicks. This would be a good time to make a move.
New York: The Knicks had a run of covers in 10 of 12 from Nov. 20 through Dec. 11 and are looking forward to a playoff chase they haven’t been a part of in years. Derrick Rose’s back issues must be monitored, but the team seems to have hit their stride and go back out on the road following their Christmas home date against Boston, playing five of seven outside Madison Square Garden from Dec. 28-Jan. 7. This should provide a true test of where New York is since it has struggled mightily on the road (5-9 SU, 7-7 ATS).
Oklahoma City: The Thunder had a six-game run of prosperity covering the number from Nov. 25-Dec. 5, but are entirely reliant on Russell Westbrook, who had shown signs of wearing down before his recent surge that has led to covers in road wins at New Orleans and Boston. Victor Oladipo has been greatly missed, but should be back from his wrist injury sooner than later. Following the Christmas clash with the Wolves, the Thunder begin a stretch where they'll play 14 of 18 outside OKC between now and Feb. 1.
Orlando: The Magic have only covered more than two straight games once and have just two three-game winning streaks to boast of, but got to 7-7 for the month of December after handling the Lakers on Friday night. Orlando will end the month at home with games against the Grizzlies and Hornets that it will likely be a short underdog in, but can secure its first .500 month since December of '15 with a single upset. Elfrid Payton's improved jump shot has been instrumental to the team's success.
Philadelphia: The NBA’s long-time laughingstock has had two streaks of three straight covers, but enter the week on a five-game run where they’ve failed to cover. They'll close the year on the road at Sacramento, Utah and Denver and have seen the under come in during seven of their last nine games.
Phoenix: The Suns snapped a season-high run of four consecutive failed covers by defeating the 76ers at home, so they may not be out of the woods just yet. Four of their next five are on the road against the Rockets, Spurs, Jazz and Clippers, so things could get even uglier before they improve. The lone home date comes against surging Toronto.
Portland: The Blazers have been awful against the spread all season, failing to cover in seven straight from Nov. 8-17 and five consecutive games since Dec. 15. Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum may be a top backcourt, but a lack of defense has been an issue all season and may ultimately make the difference in Portland missing the playoffs.
Sacramento: DeMarcus Cousins’ team goes as he does, so it’s no surprise they’re under .500 and have been remarkably inconsistent. Still, he's put together some fantastic nights this month and has the Kings on the cusp on their first four-game winning streak since they won five in a row way back in January. Sacramento will be favored at home against Philadelphia and are currently the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference, a position it can strengthen in Portland on Dec. 28.
San Antonio: The Spurs matched that 29-point win in the season opener at Golden State by blasting Brooklyn 130-101, then beat Boston and Phoenix before Tim Duncan’s jersey retirement ceremony to begin their most profitable stretch of the season, a run of six of seven San Antonio takes into the Christmas contest against the Bulls.
Toronto: The Raptors enter Monday's visit to Portland 13-2 in their last 15 games and have been the NBA’s most reliable team against the number all season (20-8-1). DeMar DeRozan continues breaking out, and Toronto opened a season-long six-game road trip in style with a 104-98 win at Utah. The Raps will face the Warriors and Spurs on this excursion.
Utah: The Jazz have Derrick Favors back to aid Rudy Gobert inside but have lost three straight entering a Dec. 27 visit to the Lakers. They should be able to right the ship with home games against the 76ers and Suns before the calendar year ends. They'll open 2017 on a five-game road trip and are 8-6 SU/ATS outside Salt Lake City.
Washington: John Wall’s squad has been disappointing due to an awful bench, but have started putting things together and covered five consecutive games before the bottom fell out in Friday's 123-96 loss to the Bucks. They'll be home for games against Milwaukee, Indiana and Brooklyn to end the calendar year, giving them an opportunity to reach .500 before 2017 begins.
