Sunday 10/2/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Post your request, Comments or concerns here.
Good luck on all your plays.

When not viewing the service plays.
Make sure to enjoy the rest of what the RX has to offer.

First time here at the RX.
Make sure to visit the Newbies Room
Click here to go there now

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL opening line report: Patriots QB situation continues to be muddled for one more week
By PATRICK EVERSON

There’s only one more game left in Tom Brady’s suspension, and his team is unbeaten heading into Week 4 of the NFL season. We talk about the opening lines on four key games this week with Peter Childs, risk management supervisor.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (no line)

New England trotted out third-string quarterback Jacoby Brissett for last Thursday’s game against Houston. It didn’t matter, as the Patriots rolled over the visiting Texans 27-0 in a pick ‘em game.

Meanwhile, Buffalo (1-2 SU and ATS) got one of the more stunning Week 3 wins, dumping Arizona 33-18 as a 5-point home underdog Sunday.

Brissett is working through a thumb injury, while Garoppolo is recovering from his Week 2 sprained AC joint in his right shoulder. So Sportsbook.ag is holding off on setting the line until Bill Belichick clarifies that situation – like it’ll matter for the 3-0 SU and ATS Pats.

“With the Pats dealing with so many issues at the quarterback position, we’re not going to open until we know more about who’s going to get the start for them,” Childs said. “Both Garoppolo and Brissett are listed as questionable, and I honestly don’t think either will be able to go. We’ll see, but as of now, this game is closed.”

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5)

Pittsburgh (2-1 SU and ATS) was on the very short end of the most shocking Week 3 decision, getting railroaded 34-3 at Philadelphia as a 3.5-point chalk. Kansas City (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) drubbed the New York Jets 24-3 laying 3 points at home. But Childs has big expectations of the Steelers.

“With the Steelers at home off an embarrassing loss, we expect a very solid effort from them in this spot,” Childs said. “Throw in the fact that this is the Sunday night featured game, and we believe the public is going to be all over the Steelers in this one. That said, Pittsburgh definitely has some issues on defense, and the Chiefs were very impressive dominating a good Jets team.”

Sportsbooks needed some time to settle on the number.

“We thought about opening Steelers -6, but felt that was too many points, so we opened them -5, which is a dead number. We’ll see how the market reacts to our opener,” Childs said. “We can easily get to 6 if we get flooded with Steelers money, and if sharp money backs the Chiefs and takes the points, then we’ll quickly get down to 4.5 or 4.

“Again, 5 being a dead number, we’ve got a lot of wiggle room to maneuver, with little chance of getting sided or middled.”

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (+3.5)

Cam Newton and Co. suffered a stunning Week 2 loss, as well, with the reigning NFC champion Panthers (1-2 SU and ATS) falling 22-10 as 6-point home faves against Minnesota. Atlanta (1-1 SU and ATS) still has to get in its Week 3 work, playing at New Orleans in the Monday nighter.

“This is a tough number to hang, because we really don’t know how good the Falcons are. So much will depend on their game Monday night,” Childs said. “The Panthers have been such a public team for the past year, and we feel they’ll get the money here off a loss. I have the game power-rated Panthers -3, but knowing the public will be on them, we added the hook with an opener of Panthers -3½ and will charge a premium on the early Panthers money.”

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5)

In Sam Bradford, Minnesota has found a more than capable replacement for injured Teddy Bridgewater, and the Vikes’ defense is getting it done, too, en route to a 3-0 SU and ATS start. On Sunday, the Vikings upended defending NFC champion Carolina 22-10 as a 6-point road underdog.

New York (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) gave up a late field goal, followed by an interception in losing to Washington 29-27 giving 3.5 points at home.

“This was so close to this game being a matchup of undefeated teams, but the Giants couldn’t close out the Redskins on Sunday,” Childs said. “The Vikings have been flat-out dominant on defense this season. The Giants are much improved on defense, but they yielded a season-high 29 points on Sunday, so they still have plenty of work to do on that side of the ball.

“It’s a Monday night game, and US Bank Stadium is going to be nuts. Normally, home field in the NFL is worth close to 3 points; for the Vikings and this new stadium, we make their home edge 3.5 points. We have the Vikings power-rated a 1-point favorite, so tack on the 3.5 points for their home field, and we opened Vikings -4.5.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL opening line report: Patriots QB situation continues to be muddled for one more week
By PATRICK EVERSON

There’s only one more game left in Tom Brady’s suspension, and his team is unbeaten heading into Week 4 of the NFL season. We talk about the opening lines on four key games this week with Peter Childs, risk management supervisor.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (no line)

New England trotted out third-string quarterback Jacoby Brissett for last Thursday’s game against Houston. It didn’t matter, as the Patriots rolled over the visiting Texans 27-0 in a pick ‘em game.

Meanwhile, Buffalo (1-2 SU and ATS) got one of the more stunning Week 3 wins, dumping Arizona 33-18 as a 5-point home underdog Sunday.

Brissett is working through a thumb injury, while Garoppolo is recovering from his Week 2 sprained AC joint in his right shoulder. So Sportsbook.ag is holding off on setting the line until Bill Belichick clarifies that situation – like it’ll matter for the 3-0 SU and ATS Pats.

“With the Pats dealing with so many issues at the quarterback position, we’re not going to open until we know more about who’s going to get the start for them,” Childs said. “Both Garoppolo and Brissett are listed as questionable, and I honestly don’t think either will be able to go. We’ll see, but as of now, this game is closed.”

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5)

Pittsburgh (2-1 SU and ATS) was on the very short end of the most shocking Week 3 decision, getting railroaded 34-3 at Philadelphia as a 3.5-point chalk. Kansas City (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) drubbed the New York Jets 24-3 laying 3 points at home. But Childs has big expectations of the Steelers.

“With the Steelers at home off an embarrassing loss, we expect a very solid effort from them in this spot,” Childs said. “Throw in the fact that this is the Sunday night featured game, and we believe the public is going to be all over the Steelers in this one. That said, Pittsburgh definitely has some issues on defense, and the Chiefs were very impressive dominating a good Jets team.”

Sportsbooks needed some time to settle on the number.

“We thought about opening Steelers -6, but felt that was too many points, so we opened them -5, which is a dead number. We’ll see how the market reacts to our opener,” Childs said. “We can easily get to 6 if we get flooded with Steelers money, and if sharp money backs the Chiefs and takes the points, then we’ll quickly get down to 4.5 or 4.

“Again, 5 being a dead number, we’ve got a lot of wiggle room to maneuver, with little chance of getting sided or middled.”

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (+3.5)

Cam Newton and Co. suffered a stunning Week 2 loss, as well, with the reigning NFC champion Panthers (1-2 SU and ATS) falling 22-10 as 6-point home faves against Minnesota. Atlanta (1-1 SU and ATS) still has to get in its Week 3 work, playing at New Orleans in the Monday nighter.

“This is a tough number to hang, because we really don’t know how good the Falcons are. So much will depend on their game Monday night,” Childs said. “The Panthers have been such a public team for the past year, and we feel they’ll get the money here off a loss. I have the game power-rated Panthers -3, but knowing the public will be on them, we added the hook with an opener of Panthers -3½ and will charge a premium on the early Panthers money.”

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5)

In Sam Bradford, Minnesota has found a more than capable replacement for injured Teddy Bridgewater, and the Vikes’ defense is getting it done, too, en route to a 3-0 SU and ATS start. On Sunday, the Vikings upended defending NFC champion Carolina 22-10 as a 6-point road underdog.

New York (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) gave up a late field goal, followed by an interception in losing to Washington 29-27 giving 3.5 points at home.

“This was so close to this game being a matchup of undefeated teams, but the Giants couldn’t close out the Redskins on Sunday,” Childs said. “The Vikings have been flat-out dominant on defense this season. The Giants are much improved on defense, but they yielded a season-high 29 points on Sunday, so they still have plenty of work to do on that side of the ball.

“It’s a Monday night game, and US Bank Stadium is going to be nuts. Normally, home field in the NFL is worth close to 3 points; for the Vikings and this new stadium, we make their home edge 3.5 points. We have the Vikings power-rated a 1-point favorite, so tack on the 3.5 points for their home field, and we opened Vikings -4.5.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Opening Line Report - Week 4
By Marcus DiNitto

Records aren’t always what they seem in the NFL, as varying degrees of difficulty from schedule to schedule often plays tricks on the minds of bettors.

The Panthers and Bengals, for example, both fell to 1-2 with home defeats Sunday, but considering the teams Carolina (Denver, Minnesota) and Cincinnati (Pittsburgh, Denver) have lost to, it’s far too early to dismiss either.

Meanwhile, which of the five 3-0 clubs are for real?

It’s hard to make that case for Baltimore just yet. With their three wins coming against Buffalo, Cleveland and Jacksonville (a combined record of 1-8), the Ravens still have plenty of convincing to do.

It’s easier to make the case for the Broncos, Vikings, Patriots and Eagles, as each has logged impressive wins.

So, as you’re handicapping Week 4 in the NFL, be prudent about how much weight you’re giving to records. Looks can be deceiving.

Here are Sunday night’s Las Vegas consensus lines for next week’s card. Totals are from CG Technology.

Thursday, Sept. 29

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5, 44.5)

The Bengals have dropped two in a row, unable to hold serve at home Sunday against the Broncos following last week’s loss in Pittsburgh. The line for next week’s Thursday nighter opened a manageable -6 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, although that number didn’t last long, as it moved to -6.5 at the Westgate and opened -7 at other Vegas books.

The Dolphins, as 10-point favorites, needed overtime to get past the lowly Browns and third-string quarterback Cody Kessler on Sunday.

“It’s shocking how Miami plays up to certain teams and down to certain teams,” Westgate oddsmaker Ed Salmons said Sunday night. “I’ve never understood that team for years now. At times they look good, and at times, it’s like how can they be this bad and stupid. They really should have lost today.”

Sunday, Oct. 2

Indianapolis Colts (-2, 49.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, London

Indianapolis was bet from -1 to -2.5 at the Westgate within the first hour of wagering Sunday, while the line remained as low as -1 at CG Technology. Here’s a friendly reminder that if you’re planning a night next Saturday, get your bet in before you hit the town, because this game from London kicks off early (9:30 a.m. ET ).

Cleveland Browns at Washington Redskins (-9.5, 45.5)

The Browns are 0-3, but Salmons stresses wins against the Ravens last week and the Dolphins this week narrowly escaped them, and that their season-opening loss in Philadelphia looks better with every Eagles victory.

Yet, the Browns were spotted 10 points by Miami and are close to double-digit dog distinction again next week in Washington (the Wynn, in fact, was dealing Washington -10 even). The Dolphins and Redskins are not exactly NFL powerhouses. How bad can Cleveland be?

“They’re playing a third string quarterback, and it’s hard to play back to back on the road, especially when you lose the first one,” Salmons said. “Cleveland had a million injuries today, too, but they played hard, I’ll give them that. They should have won. I don’t know if that says a lot about Cleveland or it says a lot bad about Miami.”

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-4.5)

While CG Technology on Sunday was dealing New England -4.5, Salmons is waiting to learn more about the Patriots’ quarterback situation before posting a number.

Seattle Seahawks (-1) at New York Jets

CG Technology put Seattle -1 on its board Sunday night, and the Westgate offered -2.5 on its advanced Week 4 lines issued last Tuesday. But if Russell Wilson can’t go and Trevone Boykin replaces him, the Jets will be favored, according to Salmons.

Carolina Panthers (-3.5) at Atlanta Falcons

Considering the unrest in Charlotte this week, it’s hard to dismiss the distraction factor in the Panthers’ loss to Minnesota on Sunday, and Carolina is chalked up as the 3- to 4-point favorite on the road next week vs. the Falcons.

Detroit Lions (-2) at Chicago Bears

CG Technology opened Detroit -1 with an immediate shift to -2, while the Westgate opened -2.5.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-6.5, 40.5)

There was a mix of -6.5s and -7s around Las Vegas on Sunday night, as Houston comes off extra rest to host this division rival.

Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 46.5)

Both of the Raiders’ wins this season have come on the road, and they’re now 7-1 ATS in their last eight away games, dating back to last season. Next week, they get over a field goal against a Ravens team that may be overrated by the public after three wins vs. inferior competition. While most Vegas books opened Baltimore -3.5, William Hill U.S. went -4.

Denver Broncos (-3, 44.5) at Tampa Bay Bucs

The Westgate opened the Broncos -2.5, but was pushed to -3 after about an hour of betting Sunday night. CG Technology opened -2 and moved to -2.5. Plenty of bettors will be happy to lay a field goal or less with the 3-0 Broncos in this spot.

“The simple analysis is Denver had the best defense in the NFL last year and you take away (Peyton) Manning and you put in some rookie (sic) no one knew anything about – and it’s easy to say anyone can throw a spiral, but Manning couldn’t, and this kid (Trevor Siemian) can throw it some,” Salmons said. “He’s gonna throw silly passes here and there, but their defense is still awesome. Each week Denver looks better and better and better.”

Siemian will eventually have to deal with adversity, however.

“I still think he’s gonna play some silly games and have some bad turnover games,” Salmons said. “It hasn’t happened yet, but I feel like it’s gotta happen at some point. There were a lot of people who thought it would happen (Sunday at Cincinnati), and it didn’t. He played great today.”

Dallas Cowboys (-2) at San Francisco 49ers

Different opinions were expressed by bookmakers at CG and the Westgate, as the shops opened Dallas -1.5 and -3, respectively. Naturally, the smaller number was bet up to -2 (-115) and the bigger number was bet down to -2.5

New Orleans Saints at San Diego Chargers (-3.5)

Most shops opened San Diego -3.5, while CG was on its own at -4.

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-9, 43.5)

The Rams have shaken off their Week 1 embarrassment with back-to-back straight-up wins as underdogs, last week vs. Seattle and this week at Tampa. They’ll be catching a big number again next week, although CG was bet down from 10 to 9 on Sunday night.

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5, 47.5)

While Pitt opened as high as -5.5 for Le’Veon Bell’s expected return, Coasts opened -5 and moved to -4.5 on Sunday night.

Monday, Oct. 3

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-4, 43.5)

The Wynn opened Minnesota -3.5 and CG hung -4.5, while all the other Vegas shops went with -4.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Week 4 lines that make you go hmmm...
By PETER KORNER

This week, there’s more than one theme when it comes to the teams and value we’ve discovered. It has to do with the “D”: Detroit, Denver, and Dallas. Longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Peter Korner sizes up this week’s NFL schedule and picks out some of the lines making him go “hmmmm…” in Week 4:

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (+2.5, 46)

The opening line of Detroit -3 quickly evolved to -3 (Even) and to -2.5 for those bookmakers who wanted to get off the key number early in the week to test the waters. For Da Bears, we’ve seen nothing in three weeks.

The offense has been non-existent while their defense eventually tires from the amount of time they’re on the field. It’s not like their opponents were bad. The Cowboys, Eagles and Texans have been formidable early this season but Chicago hasn’t shown any signs of reversing its fortunes.

On the other hand, Detroit has been scoring at a high level, particularly on the road at Green Bay (loss this past week) and Indianapolis (opening win). The current line at -2.5 seems like a steal at this point and if you’re checking into this game, grab the number before this goes back up.

I don’t see anyone but die-hard Bear fans dropping their cash on their hometown favorites, so this game will definitely rise back up before kickoff. I don’t see the line coming into play. The Lions should outrun the Bears in this one.

Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3, 44.5)

The opening line of Denver -3 hasn’t budged much in two days but that’s what seems surprising. After an opening win at Atlanta, the Bucs defense has been Swiss cheese allowing 77 points the past two games. Against a similarly defensively stronger team, they mustered just seven points against Arizona in Week 2.

Though I am wary of the second road game in a row factor, it seems like the Broncos can “Buc” that trend in this spot come Sunday. Trevor Siemian is more than capable of running the Broncos offense, has been incredibly efficient in the fourth quarter, and the defense is still among the best in the league.

Any time you can snag a team amidst a winning streak against a struggling opponent with a line of -3 or less, it seems like a value play despite all other factors. It doesn’t appear to be a letdown game in any sense as Denver has two 2-1 teams on its heels. Between these two teams, let’s ride the hot team until proven otherwise.

Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (+2.5, 46)

Dallas is heading to San Francisco and it seems the 49ers’ success of Week 1 has worn off quickly. Conversely, the Cowboys have tallied twice in the win column since their close call versus the Giants, otherwise they would be undefeated heading into this one.

The opening line of Dallas -3 hasn’t budged and if I were a Nevada bookmaker filling out the half-point parlay card numbers for this weekend, I’d be all over posting a -3.5 over a -2.5 but I’ll put my reputation on the line that no one can find two sportsbooks who will do that in the entire state.

The Cowboys offense has been clicking with point totals rising every week – duly noting the possible knee injury to Dez Bryant as we make these observations. Additionally, the San Francisco defense has been horrendous the past two games allowing a total of 83 points to score after an season-opening shutout. While the Niners will have their backers, particularly up in the Reno-Tahoe area, the money is going to be all over Dallas.

The spread will have no effect on the final score in my opinion. I also think this is a more important game for Dallas here on the road than the 49ers, who will be in a year-long funk throughout. Dallas, like Denver and Detroit, is the better team this week and that’s the edge we have.

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-8. 42.5)

Los Angeles is at Arizona this week with the Cardinals eight to 9-point favorites. I see nothing but awkward tells surrounding this game. The Rams have won two games in a row yet have been outscored by 17 points for the season. Arizona is 1-2 and has a plus-16 scoring ratio while losing two miserable games to AFC East opponents.

Los Angeles plays its second consecutive game on the road and that will be three games in four weeks away from the Coliseum. The Cardinals are suddenly faced with a must-win game after a horrendous outing in Buffalo where just about everything went wrong. They’ll need to address their kicking game for sure, but Arizona is considered a quality team and I view this as a big motivating game.

I see this line heading straight to -10 come Sunday and it being a big game for the bottom line of bookmakers with the favorite/Over plays commonplace in the late contests this week. Arizona is a big favorite for a reason and it’ll prove its worth this week.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Week 4 lines that make you go hmmm...
By PETER KORNER

This week, there’s more than one theme when it comes to the teams and value we’ve discovered. It has to do with the “D”: Detroit, Denver, and Dallas. Longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Peter Korner sizes up this week’s NFL schedule and picks out some of the lines making him go “hmmmm…” in Week 4:

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (+2.5, 46)

The opening line of Detroit -3 quickly evolved to -3 (Even) and to -2.5 for those bookmakers who wanted to get off the key number early in the week to test the waters. For Da Bears, we’ve seen nothing in three weeks.

The offense has been non-existent while their defense eventually tires from the amount of time they’re on the field. It’s not like their opponents were bad. The Cowboys, Eagles and Texans have been formidable early this season but Chicago hasn’t shown any signs of reversing its fortunes.

On the other hand, Detroit has been scoring at a high level, particularly on the road at Green Bay (loss this past week) and Indianapolis (opening win). The current line at -2.5 seems like a steal at this point and if you’re checking into this game, grab the number before this goes back up.

I don’t see anyone but die-hard Bear fans dropping their cash on their hometown favorites, so this game will definitely rise back up before kickoff. I don’t see the line coming into play. The Lions should outrun the Bears in this one.

Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3, 44.5)

The opening line of Denver -3 hasn’t budged much in two days but that’s what seems surprising. After an opening win at Atlanta, the Bucs defense has been Swiss cheese allowing 77 points the past two games. Against a similarly defensively stronger team, they mustered just seven points against Arizona in Week 2.

Though I am wary of the second road game in a row factor, it seems like the Broncos can “Buc” that trend in this spot come Sunday. Trevor Siemian is more than capable of running the Broncos offense, has been incredibly efficient in the fourth quarter, and the defense is still among the best in the league.

Any time you can snag a team amidst a winning streak against a struggling opponent with a line of -3 or less, it seems like a value play despite all other factors. It doesn’t appear to be a letdown game in any sense as Denver has two 2-1 teams on its heels. Between these two teams, let’s ride the hot team until proven otherwise.

Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (+2.5, 46)

Dallas is heading to San Francisco and it seems the 49ers’ success of Week 1 has worn off quickly. Conversely, the Cowboys have tallied twice in the win column since their close call versus the Giants, otherwise they would be undefeated heading into this one.

The opening line of Dallas -3 hasn’t budged and if I were a Nevada bookmaker filling out the half-point parlay card numbers for this weekend, I’d be all over posting a -3.5 over a -2.5 but I’ll put my reputation on the line that no one can find two sportsbooks who will do that in the entire state.

The Cowboys offense has been clicking with point totals rising every week – duly noting the possible knee injury to Dez Bryant as we make these observations. Additionally, the San Francisco defense has been horrendous the past two games allowing a total of 83 points to score after an season-opening shutout. While the Niners will have their backers, particularly up in the Reno-Tahoe area, the money is going to be all over Dallas.

The spread will have no effect on the final score in my opinion. I also think this is a more important game for Dallas here on the road than the 49ers, who will be in a year-long funk throughout. Dallas, like Denver and Detroit, is the better team this week and that’s the edge we have.

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-8. 42.5)

Los Angeles is at Arizona this week with the Cardinals eight to 9-point favorites. I see nothing but awkward tells surrounding this game. The Rams have won two games in a row yet have been outscored by 17 points for the season. Arizona is 1-2 and has a plus-16 scoring ratio while losing two miserable games to AFC East opponents.

Los Angeles plays its second consecutive game on the road and that will be three games in four weeks away from the Coliseum. The Cardinals are suddenly faced with a must-win game after a horrendous outing in Buffalo where just about everything went wrong. They’ll need to address their kicking game for sure, but Arizona is considered a quality team and I view this as a big motivating game.

I see this line heading straight to -10 come Sunday and it being a big game for the bottom line of bookmakers with the favorite/Over plays commonplace in the late contests this week. Arizona is a big favorite for a reason and it’ll prove its worth this week.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wiseguys are keeping a close eye on these redemption storylines in NFL Week 4
By AAA SPORTS

Each week during the pro football season, Art Aronson of AAA Sports looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Tennessee at Houston (-6.5)

Bill O’Brien and the Texans looked like a shaken bunch when they boarded the bus after last Thursday’s 27-0 shutout loss in New England, but they will have had a few extra days to sort things out. Houston was not as bad as it looked in Foxboro, but no one knows if the Texans are as good as they showed in home wins over Chicago and Kansas City. At any rate, Houston gets another home game and is looking down at the rest of the AFC South, so things can’t be all that bad. The Titans have to figure out a way to jump-start an offense which has scored only 42 points in three games, and do it against a Houston team whose defense was embarrassed by the Patriots’ third-string QB on national TV. If the money stays heavy money on the Texans, it could bump the line up to 7.

Spread to wait on

Kansas City at Pittsburgh (-6)

Philadelphia 34, Pittsburgh 3. What was THAT all about? After two easy wins and covers, the Steelers had the look and feel of a team that was more than ready to give the Patriots a run for their money in the AFC. Now, who knows? The Steelers were outplayed in every phase of the game (except punting) vs. their in-state rivals, and now face a pretty good Chiefs team that is coming off a dismantling of the Jets. If you’re torn between taking or laying the points in this one, bear in mind that the Chiefs offense revolves around RB Jamaal Charles, and as of early this week KC was still uncertain if Charles is completely recovered from ACL surgery from last October. Might want to wait until there is more definitive word.

Total to watch

Indianapolis at Jacksonville (49.5)

Loading up on skill-position players in the draft has taken its toll on the Colts, who aspire to the Super Bowl but are actually under .500 in their last 19 regular-season games. Indy ranks 24th in the league in defense this season, and is giving up an average of 32 points a game. On the plus side, the D appears to be getting a little better (22 allowed vs. San Diego last week), though that might be a product of playing mediocre offensive teams. Jacksonville has offensive problems, namely an inability to run the ball, but is confident that it can move the ball through the air against Indy’s mediocre back 7. Both teams are 2-1 on the over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Winless'

Starting 0-1 'Is Not Good'. Starting 0-2 'Is Bad'. Starting 0-3 'Really Stinks'. The third week of the 2016 NFL season in the books there are four winless teams trapped in the 'Really Stink' catagory looking to escape a dreaded 0-4 hole. Looking at Wk-4 matchups there is a great possibility these squads remain winless as reeling Browns visit Redskins, Jaguars host Colts, Bears entertain Lions, Saints head west to visit Chargers.

Only time will tell if the O-FER's can emerge victorious. According to our trusty NFL betting database, since 2004 there have been 55 teams opening the campaign 0-3 and of those only 20 managed to right the ship in week-4 for a lowly 36.4% winning rate. However, the 'Now or Never' teams managed a 29-24-2 record against the betting line in those contest with winless underdogs 23-26-1 ATS split between 10-10-1 ATS in friendly confines and a sturdy 13-6 ATS in enemy territory.

A few additional nuggets to consider if you plan a bet on/against the winless. Browns 1-12 SU, 6-7 ATS L13 away, 0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS as dogs vs Non-Conf. Jaguars 3-6 SU/ATS hosting Colts, 0-5 SU, 2-3 ATS vs a div opponent off a win. Bears 3-14 SU, 5-12 ATS in the Windy City, 2-13 SU, 5-10 ATS vs division, 0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS off a loss vs Div foe off loss, 0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS L3 hosting Lions. Saints 1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS away after MNF, 3-2 SU, 1-4 ATS away after playing Falcons, 1-4 SU, 3-2 ATS off loss as fave, 5-9 SU, 7-7 ATS dog vs non-conf.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Analyzing the Unbeatens

Patriots Now Most Likely To Be Last Unbeaten Standing?

Parity is alive and well in the NFL this season as 28 of the 32 teams have at least one victory through three weeks. That's tied for the third-highest total in the NFL through three games since the league expanded and realigned in 2002. The record is 30 in 2012.

There are just five unbeaten teams left: the Patriots, Broncos, Ravens, Vikings and Eagles. Since the playoff field was expanded to 12 teams in 1990, 75.6 percent of teams (99 of 131) that started 3-0 made the playoffs.

So which NFL team is likely to be the last to lose? Here's a look at the five and their NFL odds to win the Super Bowl.

New England Patriots (+400): It apparently doesn't matter who starts at quarterback for Coach Bill Belichick, whose reputation only grows with every win by the likes of Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett.

Garoppolo missed last Thursday's blowout win of Houston with a shoulder injury, and Brissett, a third-round rookie, played solidly in the win but injured his thumb. It's not clear which will be under center Sunday at home vs. Buffalo, but both practiced on Tuesday.

New England opened as a 4.5-point favorite. With Tom Brady due back in Week 5, the Patriots likely won't be underdogs until Week 7 in Pittsburgh -- if then. If the Pats win that, they should be unbeaten in Week 10 when Seattle visits.

Denver Broncos (+900): Who needs Peyton Manning? Denver QB Trevor Siemian, who is essentially a rookie, became the first quarterback in NFL history to pass for at least 300 yards and four touchdowns without an interception in his first career road start as he led a comeback victory in Cincinnati in Week 3.

Despite losing some key free agents, the Denver defense is playing as well as it did last year. The Broncos could be staring at a trap game this week at Tampa Bay as 3-point favorites. After Sunday, Denver should be favored in every game until Week 9 in Oakland.

Minnesota Vikings (+1100): Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, running back Adrian Peterson and left tackle Matt Kalil are all done for the year. Yet the Vikings already have beaten top NFC contenders Green Bay and Carolina.

Mike Zimmer has to be the NFL Coach of the Year favorite. His defense hasn't allowed more than 16 points in a game yet. The Vikings are -4 for Monday's game vs. the Giants. Minnesota's next chance to be an underdog is Week 7 at Philadelphia.

Philadelphia Eagles (+1600): No question that Carson Wentz is the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year through three weeks. He is the first rookie QB since 1970 to start and win his team’s first three games to begin a season without throwing a pick. And yet the Browns didn't want him?

Philly beat two bad teams in Cleveland and Chicago to open the season but made a statement with last Sunday's 34-3 blowout of the Steelers, their worst loss since 1989. The Eagles are on the bye in Week 4. They could easily lose Week 5 in Detroit.

Baltimore Ravens (+2800): Hard to know how good Joe Flacco and Co. are. They have beaten Buffalo, Cleveland and Jacksonville by a combined 13 points and those three clubs have totaled one win between them (Bills).

The Ravens are 3.5-point favorites on NFL odds this week against visiting Oakland. Baltimore likely will next be an underdog Week 6 at the Giants.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Betting Predictions: Week 4 Opening Line Report and Picks
by Alan Matthews

I'm not saying that Jacksonville head coach Gus Bradley will be fired after this week's game if the Jaguars lose to Indianapolis in London .... but, yeah, Bradley will be fired after this week's game if the Jaguars lose to Indianapolis in London.

The past two years, a head coach has gotten the pink slip after his team lost Week 4 in London. Last year it was Miami's Joe Philbin after an ugly defeat to the Jets. And in 2014, it was Oakland's Dennis Allen following a blowout loss across the pond to Philbin's Dolphins. The Jaguars will be on their bye week after Sunday's game, so it's the best time to make a change.

Count me among the disappointed in Jacksonville (0-3) as I thought that team could win the AFC South. The Jags should have won Sunday but lost 19-17 at home on a 54-yard field goal by Baltimore's Justin Tucker with 1:02 left. Jacksonville totally shot itself in the foot in the fourth quarter, forcing three consecutive turnovers but only getting a field goal.. Blake Bortles threw two interceptions that ended drives in Baltimore territory, and Jason Myers had a 52-yard field goal blocked. Bradley is now 12-39 in four seasons, the second-worst winning percentage of any NFL coach with at least 50 games. The Jags have a guy with head coaching experience on the staff in Doug Marrone, who is the assistant head coach/offense and offensive line coach. He was 15-17 in two seasons as the head coach in Buffalo and I'd assume would get the interim job. The Jags are 2.5-point underdogs against Indy.

Here are some Week 4 early lines that caught my eye. I won't touch on Thursday's game (Dolphins-Bengals), the marquee Sunday matchup (probably Raiders-Ravens) or the Monday night matchup (Giants-Vikings) as I will be previewing them here individually. The Eagles and Packers are on the bye.

Bills at Patriots (-4.5, TBA): This line certainly could change once we find out whether it's Jacoby Brissett, Jimmy Garoppolo or someone else starting at quarterback for the Patriots in their final game without Tom Brady. Garoppolo missed last Thursday's blowout of the Texans -- I was dead wrong on that game -- and Brissett played pretty solidly in his place but also sprained his thumb. So as of now, no one knows who will be under center against Buffalo. If the Patriots sign someone like T.J. Yates on Monday, then the team is obviously worried that neither of those two will be ready. The Patriots privately think at least one of Brissett or Garoppolo will be able to go, however. Buffalo probably saved Rex Ryan's job with its impressive home win over Arizona on Sunday. The Bills certainly focused on the running game under new offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn, rushing for 208 yards against the Cardinals and passing for only 89. Top Bills receiver Sammy Watkins was out with a foot injury. The pick: Patriots regardless of the QB. I'm done betting against Bill Belichick.

Lions at Bears (+2.5, 46): Chicago looks like the NFL's worst team through three games and will be the NFC's lone winless club if New Orleans beats visiting Atlanta on Monday night as I expect. Jay Cutler missed Sunday night's 31-17 loss in Dallas and most likely won't play in this one. Brian Hoyer played well in his place, throwing for 317 yards and two scores. But the injury-ravaged Bears also lost top tailback Jeremy Langford to an ankle injury, and he's questionable here. Chicago's defense was down several starters vs. Dallas due to injury and allowed 447 yards. They pretty much all will be out again vs. Detroit, which has won six straight in the series. The Lions lost 34-27 in Green Bay on Sunday, nearly staging a huge rally. Detroit's best two defenders, DeAndre Levy and Ezekiel Ansah, sat out and are unlikely this week. The pick: Lions and "over."

Cowboys at 49ers (+3, 46): This line could move a bit depending on an MRI on the knee of star Dallas receiver Dez Bryant on Monday. His knee bent awkwardly in the first quarter against the Bears and Bryant limped to the sideline before eventually returning. The Cowboys are optimistic it's nothing serious. Dallas ended an eight-game home losing streak with its easy win over Chicago. Ezekiel Elliott finished with 140 rushing yards -- his 274 rushing yards through the first three games are second-most by a Cowboys rookie behind Calvin Hill's 299 -- and fellow rookie Dak Prescott had the first touchdown pass of his career as well as a TD run. We could see a QB change in San Francisco following Sunday's 37-18 loss in Seattle as Blaine Gabbert was just terrible. He's 30th in the NFL with a rating of 68.6 and last with 532 yards passing. I would be mildly surprised if Colin Kaepernick doesn't get his shot this week. The pick: Cowboys and under.

Browns at Redskins (-9.5, 45.5): Washington is the biggest early favorite on the board. I didn't think the Redskins had it in them to win at the Giants on Sunday but they did, 29-27, to save their season for now. Dustin Hopkins kicked a 37-yard field goal, his fifth of the game, with 1:51 to play for the winning points. Frankly, the Giants gave that game away with three turnovers and 11 penalties for 128 yards and led 21-9 at one point. Washington did lose safety DeAngelo Hall to a torn ACL and cornerback Bashaud Breeland to an ankle injury. It's not clear how serious Breeland's is yet. Cleveland rookie Cody Kessler played solidly in his first NFL start in Miami on Sunday but the Browns' other guy named Cody seeing his first action of the year, kicker Cody Parkey, missed three field goals, including the potential winning 46-yarder at the end of regulation. Miami won 30-24 in overtime. Parkey had just been signed Saturday with the Browns having lost kicker Patrick Murray to injury. I'd be shocked if the Browns aren't working out some other kickers this week. This game looks bleh now but originally was to have Robert Griffin III in his return to Washington. The pick: Browns, hoping this gets over 10, and under.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Week 4 Essentials
By Tony Mejia

October is upon us, as are bye weeks. The undefeated Eagles and improved Packers are the first two teams to get Sunday off, which means they’ll be in marathon mode going forward until 2017. While an early bye is never desirable, there are some teams that definitely need it more than Philadelphia and Green Bay, who are a combined 7-1 and relatively healthy. Others certainly can’t say the same. Here’s what you need to know before wagering on Week 4:

Sunday, Oct. 2

Indianapolis vs. Jacksonville: The first of this season’s trips across the pond sees the Jaguars “host” the Colts in London, marking the fourth straight year the Jags will play at Wembley Stadium. It’s the first of three NFL games we’ll see played in England this month and will be the first time Indianapolis has made the journey. Jacksonville improved to 1-2 by beating the Bills 34-31 last year and will be facing an AFC South rival for the first time as this becomes only the second divisional game played overseas (Jets beat Dolphins 31-17 last year). All three international games involving the Jags have gone ‘over’ the posted total since they’ve surrendered 34.7 points, so Gus Bradley will have to reverse that trend to slow down a Colts attack that is averaging 27.0 per game, currently tied for third with New England in the AFC. Jacksonville snapped a six-game losing streak against Indianapolis last December, winning 51-16 thanks to four second-half touchdowns from Blake Bortles. Luck is 5-1 against the Jags, losing only his first encounter back in 2012, but missed both meetings last season.

Cleveland at Washington: The Browns are a missed field goal away from earning the first win of the Hue Jackson era, but didn’t cut kicker Cody Parkey in spite of him going 3-for-6 and blowing a 44-yarder at the gun in Miami. Rookie Cody Kessler is going to start again, which means Terrelle Pryor’s versatility will likely continue to be showcased. Top receiver Josh Gordon will be serving the final game of his suspension, so ‘Skins corner Josh Norman will likely see a lot of Pryor with rookie standout Corey Coleman also still out. Washington created turnovers in order to avoid an 0-3 start with an upset at the Giants and can get back to .500 if it doesn’t lose a third consecutive home game, something it hasn’t suffered through since 2013 and hasn’t experienced to start a season since 1998. DeSean Jackson sat out practice on Wednesday to rest knee and ankle injuries suffered last week, putting his availability in question. Barring a setback, he’ll likely be out there.

Buffalo at New England: Injured QB Jimmy Garoppolo (shoulder) threw in practice, as did Jacoby Brissett (thumb), so those hoping to see what Julian Edelman has retained from his Kent State days will likely be disappointed. The Patriots are looking to wrap up a 4-0 start without Tom Brady and have only trailed for 6:02 of a possible 180 minutes of game action without him. New England has beaten the Bills in eight of the last nine and is 28-3 against them since Dec. 2000. Rob Gronkowski is likely to play after debuting last week without getting a catch, drawing a single target in the red zone. Sammy Watkins didn’t practice Wednesday and is likely a game-time decision at best as he deals with recurring issues following foot surgery. Buffalo re-committed to its run game under newly appointed offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn and played its best game of the season in an upset of Arizona. The Bills are hoping to get back starting left tackle Cordy Glenn but are still without suspended tackle Seantrel Henderson as they face a Pats defense that has allowed 4.4 yards per carry.

Seattle at N.Y. Jets: While on the subject of run defense, New York has given up the third-fewest yards of any team thus far (71.7 per game), although it has been victimized by long pass plays in addition to turnovers. The Jets are hosting the Seahawks for the first time since 2004 and haven’t lost a home date against them since 1983, back when they played in Queens at the now-demolished Shea Stadium. That streak encompasses five straight wins, the last of which came thanks to nearly 500 yards of total offense 12 years ago. History likely won’t repeat itself in that regard, especially with Ryan Fitzpatrick coming off a six-interception game, but defense can certainly be a driving force for the Jets since Seahawks QB Russell Wilson is attempting to gut it out through knee and ankle injuries and managed to produce just three points at L.A. in his team’s last road game. Seattle is allowing a league-low 12.3 points.

Carolina at Atlanta: The Panthers can’t be overly concerned with a slow start, but are in danger of falling two games back in the NFC South unless they pull off this road win. Carolina hasn’t trailed its division since blowing out the Falcons 34-3 at the Georgia Dome to close the 2014 regular season in a winner-take-all game, but also suffered its only regular-season loss there last December, ending its perfect run at 14-0. The Panthers have already lost more games this season than they did in ’15 and have Cam Newton coming off a twisted ankle while RB Jonathan Stewart remains sidelined by a hamstring injury. The Falcons come off a short week and aren’t the picture of perfect health themselves. Matt Ryan finished off the Monday night win wearing a glove to protect a banged-up thumb but insists he’s good to go. He’ll be working with a receiving corps that has taken a few hits since Julio Jones (calf) is hurt and comes off a one-catch night while Mohamed Sanu (shoulder) is likely to play but hasn’t practiced this week.

Detroit at Chicago: Quarterback Jay Cutler was back at practice for Chicago on Wednesday, working his way back from a thumb sprain that kept him out of the Week 3 loss to Dallas. It’s still unclear whether he’ll play or give way to backup Brian Hoyer again, but it looks like primary running backs Jeremy Langford (ankle) and Ka’Deem Carey (hamstring) will be absent, leaving the ground game in the hands of rookie Jordan Howard and recent signee Joique Bell, formerly of Detroit. Chicago is one of only four winless teams, a boat the Lions would be in if not for Matt Prater’s game-winning field goal in Indianapolis in Week 1. They have replaced Calvin Johnson’s production via Marvin Jones, who leads the NFL with 408 receiving yards after hauling in six passes for 205 yards in Green Bay. After losing Ameer Abdullah (foot) for the season, Detroit’s run game struggled against the Packers, although falling behind 31-3 eliminated offensive balance. We’ll see if the Lions can get a ground game going behind rookie Dwayne Washington and Theo Riddick against a Bears defense that ranks 30th against the run. Green Bay ranks first. Detroit has won six straight in the series, last losing in 2012.

Tennessee at Houston: It should be telling to see how the Texans respond to the disappointing news that J.J. Watt is likely to miss the rest of the season after aggravating a back injury. They entered last Thursday brimming with optimism, invading New England with the intention of sending a message on a national stage. They delivered one, alright, but it wasn’t the one they were shooting for. It came through loud and clear as “not ready.” Now, after losing Watt, we’ll see whether Brock Osweiler can rally the troops at home and begin returning on Houston’s investment. The Titans came up short on a second straight comeback bid when Marcus Mariota’s fourth-down pass in the red zone sailed wide in a 17-10 loss to the Raiders, but they’ve been in every game thus far and have played games that have gone ‘under’ the posted total each time, same as Houston. These are the NFL’s two lowest-scoring teams, averaging 14.0 points per game. The Texans have won seven of eight in this series against the franchise that left town for Nashville in 1996, ending their run as the Houston Oilers.

Oakland at Baltimore: The Ravens have given up fewer points than anyone in the AFC through three weeks and have a perfect record to show for it after surviving three one-possession games that each could have gone the other way in the closing stages. While Joe Flacco has been inconsistent thus far as he returns from last November’s ACL and MCL tears, he completed 21 consecutive passes at one point in last week’s win over the Jags and has a chance to exploit the league’s worst pass defense, the only one in the NFL that has allowed over 1,000 yards thus far. The Raiders (2-1) have more wins than all of the Ravens’ opponents thus far combined (1-8) and won last year’s meeting in Oakland (37-33), but are 0-5 against the Ravens in Baltimore over the last 20 years, losing by a combined 84 points.

Denver at Tampa Bay: The Broncos took their act on the road for the first time this season and tamed the Bengals behind Siemian, but defense will continue to be the driving force behind a second championship and has contributed to the NFL fourth-largest scoring output. The Bucs have given up more points than anyone (101) and have seen Jameis Winston throw for as many interceptions (4) as touchdowns in losses the past few weeks, although the 22-year-old did set a new career-high with 405 passing yards against the Rams. RB Doug Martin (hamstring) is unlikely to return this week, which makes a home upset even more unlikely as Tampa Bay looks to snap a three-game losing streak against Denver that dates back to 1999.

Dallas at San Francisco: The Cowboys announced that Dez Bryant suffered a hairline fracture in his knee but haven’t ruled him out for this contest. Still, the possibility that rookie QB Dak Prescott will have to win a game without his No. 1 receiver is very real. Although Cole Beasley leads the team in receptions and targets, he benefits from the attention Bryant and tight end Jason Witten command. Terrence Williams would become Dallas’ primary deep threat. The 49ers can use all the help they can get considering they’ve given up 83 points in road losses to the Panthers and Seahawks after blanking the Rams at home in Week 1. The Cowboys have health concerns along their vaunted offensive line, so San Francisco has a chance to pull off an upset and win its first home game over its historical rival since 1997.

New Orleans at San Diego: After getting lit up at home on Monday night, the Saints make their first of three west coast trips looking for their first victory of any kind in 2016 since Week 17 of last season on Jan. 3. New Orleans has suffered through a winless preseason and dropped the first three games, mirroring what it did in ‘15. The Saints won in Week 4 last year, so a repeat here would be welcome, but watching awful defense waste the prouction of a Drew Brees-led attack that has posted 26.3 points and an NFL-best 341.7 yards per game has played out like a recurring nightmare. The Chargers have survived the loss of top receiver Keenan Allen (ACL), versatile back Danny Woodhead (ACL) and legendary tight end Antonio Gates (hamstring) but are still averaging 29.0 points per game and have enough juice to get back to .500. This game packs Week 4’s largest total, but dating back to 2000, all four meetings between these teams have produced at least 55 points, all going over the posted total.

Los Angeles at Arizona: The last of this week’s divisional battles gives the Rams an opportunity to win a third straight game and really shake up the NFC West. L.A. managed its first offensive touchdowns of the season, adding a 77-yard fumble return on defense. Case Keenum hit on a pair of huge pass plays and Todd Gurley found the end zone twice from 1-yard out in a 37-32 win at Tampa Bay last Sunday. The Rams pulled of a 24-22 upset as a 7-point underdog in Glendale last season, so they should be a confident group coming in. After an embarrassingly flat effort in Buffalo, the Cardinals are in a great bounce-back spot, but Carson Palmer threw four interceptions and completed barely half of his 50 passes against the Bills and faces a defense capable of consistently disrupting his rhythm once again.

Kansas City at Pittsburgh: Week 4’s Sunday night showdown is a good one, joining Raiders-Ravens and the MNF clash as the only games between teams with winning records. Reigning AFC Defensive Player of the Week Marcus Peters leads the NFL with four interceptions and has 12 in 19 games for a Chiefs defense that also has a league-high 32 pass breakups, 11 of which are credited to him. He left Wednesday’s practice with a flu that should clear up by the weekend and has the full attention of Ben Roethlisberger, who failed to throw a TD pass against the Eagles on Sunday but hasn’t had that happen in consecutive weeks since the final two regular-season games in 2011. He’ll have RB LeVeon Bell back as an option out of the backfield, so Kansas City will have to deal with a potent offense as it attempts to win at Heinz Field for the first time in four tries. The Chiefs, who probably won’t have Jamaal Charles (knee) back but are getting by nicely with backup Charcandrick West again, haven’t tasted victory in Pittsburgh since a win at Three Rivers Stadium back in 1986.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 4
By MONTY ANDREWS

Each week, Monty Andrews breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, giving you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule and setting your daily fantasy lineup.

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (+2.5, 46)

Lions' penalty parade vs. Bears' impressive discipline

When it comes to on-field talent, at least on the offensive side of the ball, this should be a one-sided affair. The Lions boast one of the most potent offensive attacks in the league, led by quarterback Matthew Stafford (third in the NFL in passing yards) and receiver Marvin Jones Jr. (first in receiving yards). Conversely, the Bears enter the game having compiled the sixth-fewest yards in the league. Their 932 total yards are more than 300 fewer than what the Lions have.

But the complexion of this game could change dramatically if both teams stick to the penalty patterns they've established through three weeks. Detroit sits second in the NFL with 29 accepted penalties and has the most accepted yards in the league (294). A whopping 66 of those came on a defensive pass interference penalty last week against Green Bay. The Packers converted the touchdown on the very next play and went on to win 34-27.

The Bears have been model citizens by comparison, incurring just 17 accepted penalties for 135 yards - the sixth-lowest total in the league. Their 55 defensive penalty yards against are 11 fewer than the Lions picked up on that one pass interference call against the Packers. Chicago may not have the offensive horses to keep pace with Detroit but another disciplined showing from the Bears, coupled with further penalty trouble from the Lions, could make this one interesting.

Daily fantasy watch: WR Kevin White

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-8, 42.5)

Rams' formidable kicking game vs. Cardinals' punt problems

Hands up if you thought the Rams would have a better record through three games than the Cardinals. OK, hands down, liars. The 2-1 Rams have defied expectations thanks in large part to a stout defense while the 1-2 Cardinals have been one of the biggest disappointments in the league due primarily to struggles in the passing game. And if both defenses dig in as expected Sunday afternoon, the Rams could make this one closer than expected.

Los Angeles enters Week 4 sitting eighth in the NFL in net yards per punt attempt at 42.2. For a team that punts as often as the Rams do, this is a critical component of their overall game plan. And it's no fluke, either. The Rams had the best net yards per attempt in 2015 at 43.7. Arizona is on the other end of the spectrum, ranked last in the league at a paltry 33.6 yards per attempt. This, too, is no outlier. The Cardinals' 36.2 yards per punt attempt in 2015 was the worst in football.

With this game boasting the second-lowest total of the week, Vegas is expecting a fair share of punts - that plays right into the Rams' hands. While they may not be able to match offenses with the high-powered Cardinals, a nine-yard advantage in average punt yardage is a major benefit and it could mean the difference between two teams leaving at .500 and the Rams shocking the football world by opening the season 3-1.

Daily fantasy watch: WR Tavon Austin

Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3, 44.5)

Broncos' strong passing game vs. Buccaneers' bad secondary

Everybody knew the Broncos' defense would be one of the top units in the league, and that has come to pass through the first three weeks of the season. But few expected the offense to look as good as it has, with rookie quarterback Trevor Siemian leading the team to a spotless 3-0 record on the strength of 756 passing yards and five touchdowns. Look for more of the same this weekend against a Buccaneers' pass defense that has been far from imposing.

The majority of the Broncos' key offensive pieces have positive Pro Football Focus grades, including Siemian (72.8) and the elite wide receiver tandem of Emmanuel Sanders (82.0) and Demaryius Thomas (73.7). All three laid waste to the Cincinnati Bengals' top-tier pass defense last week. Siemian racked up 312 yards and four touchdowns, while Sanders (nine receptions, 117 yards, 2 TDs) and Thomas (6 receptions, 100 yards, TD) burned the Bengals' aggressive secondary.

Those three should find things much simpler in Week 4, as the Buccaneers' secondary has struggled to contain opposing pass attacks. Three of the four starting defensive backs have grades below 70, while cornerback Brent Grimes (74.0) has looked shaky at times, further proving his prime years are long gone. Couple that with a Tampa Bay offensive line that boasts three players with grades below 48, and it's clear that the Broncos are in good position for a high-scoring day.

Daily fantasy watch: WR Demaryius Thomas

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5, 43.5)

Giants' red-zone defense vs. Vikings' goal-to-go struggles

Much of the focus in this one will be on the Vikings' vaunted defense, which has risen to unexpectedly high levels after pummeling Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton in last week's 22-10 victory. Minnesota caught the Panthers completely by surprise by employing a pass-prevention nickel defense on a whopping 75 percent of their defensive snaps, according to Next Gen Stats. Look for Minnesota to use a similar tactic against the Giants' bevy of receiving options.

Yet, while the Vikings' defense has to be considered among the best in the league through three weeks, Minnesota's offensive efficiency is a different story - particularly when it comes to red-zone work. The Vikings have converted a paltry 28.6 percent of their red-zone visits into touchdowns, which is the third-worst mark in the league ahead of only the Washington Redskins and the Houston Texans. It's nothing new for Minnesota, which ranked 27th in red-zone TD rate a season ago.

That bodes poorly for the Vikings, who face a Giants unit that has surrendered touchdowns on just 25 percent of its opponents' red-zone visits. Only the Kansas City Chiefs have been stingier through three weeks. New York spent a pile of money to bolster its defense in the offseason, and that investment appears to be paying off - at least in some measure. Look for the Vikings to struggle in the red zone, and adjust your projections accordingly.

Daily fantasy watch: Giants D/ST

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Best Bets - Week 4

NFL Week 4 Best Bets

It was a solid Week 3 in the NFL for the sportsbooks as underdogs were barking everywhere and contributed significantly to the majority of bettors having a rough week.

I was no exception as my two best bets from last week were both outright losers as chalk and it's time to get back on track here.

Best Bet #1: Baltimore Ravens (-3)

It might be time for the masses to start firmly believing in the Baltimore Ravens this year as a 3-0 start has got them on track, even if all the wins have been quite close.

Baltimore's 3-0 SU record could very easily be 0-3 SU had a few breaks not gone their way in games, but you make your own luck in this league and the Ravens appear to be doing just fine in that regard.

They host an Oakland Raiders team this week who is 2-1 SU in their own right, and were everyone's preseason darling to be vastly improved in 2016.

But this is also the third time in four weeks that the Raiders have played in the Eastern Time Zone and all of that travel for a West Coast team eventually catches up to you. Throw in a couple of home division games on deck for Oakland (vs. San Diego and KC) and this is one of those brutal scheduling spots that Oakland could crumble in.

Even though the Raiders are 2-0 SU and ATS in those two previous EST time zone games, Baltimore will be the best of the bunch when you look at the Raiders opponents in those games.

Defensively the Ravens have been great in not allowing any of their three opponents to score more than 20 against them and they'll be able to keep QB Derek Carr and company in check.

Baltimore is 5-1 ATS after their last six victories dating back to last year, and have a 17-7-1 ATS run going against a winning opponent.

Adding in the series history between these two franchises further helps Baltimore's case as the home side is a perfect 6-0 ATS the last six times these two have met, and Baltimore would love to get a bit of revenge for a 37-33 loss out in Oakland last year.

I doubt we see that many points in this year's rematch, but the bulk of the points will be scored by Baltimore in this one and the -3 point spread seems a little undervalued here because of the lack of belief in the Ravens and their 3-0 SU record. A dominant performance over the “darling” Raiders will change that perception this week.

Best Bet #2: New Orleans Saints (+4)

The Saints enter Week 4 with an 0-3 SU record and desperately need a win to salvage the 2016 campaign before it completely goes off the rails. That's not to say a win this week would put the Saints back in the hunt, but the NFC South division leader is only at 2-1 SU entering the week and getting that first W for New Orleans would be a good place to start.

The Saints are on the road in San Diego to face a battered and beat up Chargers team that is trying to prevent their season from going off the rails as well.

QB Phillip Rivers is doing everything he can to keep his team in games with a chance to win, but San Diego just doesn't have the weapons or depth at the moment to continually close out games.

They let Kansas City storm back on them down 21 in the 2nd half to win in OT during Week 1, and then watched a similar scenario play out last week when the Colts scored the go-ahead TD in the final minutes of the game.

The “backdoor cover” is likely going to be always available for Chargers opponents this year and while I don't believe we will need it with the Saints this week, it's still a nice feeling to have.

If Drew Brees is going to get his team off the snide, heading back to a former home is always a good place to start. He has yet to be back to play a game in San Diego since he left about a decade ago, but in two games vs the Chargers since then, he's thrown for 7 TD's and 1 INT in two wins.

New Orleans put up at least 31 points in both of those victories, and while they aren't the same juggernaut team they were during those seasons, the Saints can still put up plenty of points.

If they do that this week against San Diego, the Chargers won't be able to keep up with all of their weapons hurt, and bettors will not even need the points on the spread.

San Diego is just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 at home, and with the Saints sporting a 6-1 ATS run when coming off MNF, and a 6-1 ATS run in October games, you can be sure that New Orleans is glad to see the calendar flip over and start to turn that 0-3 SU start into a distant memory.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free NFL Picks: Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens Odds and Expert Predictions
by Alan Matthews

It's never too early to start thinking about potential playoff tiebreakers, and I believe Sunday's matchup between Oakland and Baltimore could have AFC wild-card implications down the road.

I didn't expect Denver to repeat in the AFC West this season but also wasn't expecting QB Trevor Siemian to play as well as he has at quarterback. And with that defense as good as ever, you'd have to call the Broncos the team to beat out there again, and they lead the Raiders and Chiefs by a game. Incidentally, with a pretty easy schedule for a while, the Broncos could well be unbeaten when they visit Oakland in Week 9.

The Ravens are surprise leaders of the AFC North, although I still expect Pittsburgh to win that. I suppose you have to call Philadelphia the most surprising 3-0 team, but Baltimore is a close second. I'm still very skeptical because the team's wins are over Buffalo, Cleveland and Jacksonville, who have combined for a single victory. The Ravens won't likely be underdogs in a game until Week 6 at the Giants as next week they host Washington.

Raiders at Ravens Betting Story Lines

The Oakland defense was a major issue the first two weeks -- the Raiders had allowed more yards in their first two games than any team had in its first two since at least 1940 -- and I'm not sure anything was solved in Week 3's 17-10 win at Tennessee because the Titans aren't exactly explosive. What's going on with defensive end/outside linebacker Khalil Mack? Last year he made history by being named a Pro Bowler at both positions. This year, Mack has just 13 tackles and no sacks. The window is open to win his first Defensive Player of the Year Award with the bad news for Houston three-time winner J.J. Watt. But Mack needs to get going.

The Raiders did force three Titans turnovers so that's a positive. Two of those were by newcomers, linebacker Bruce Irvin (forced a fumble) and cornerback Sean Smith (interception). Smith had been terrible the first two weeks. The Raiders' first-round pick this year, safety Karl Joseph, had only played special teams the first two weeks but had 13 tackles in his defensive debut. Derek Carr had a so-so game, completing 21 of 35 for 249 yards, a TD and a pick. Michael Crabtree caught eight balls for 102 yards and has been reborn in Oakland. Running back Latavius Murray scored a touchdown for the third straight game. Sebastian Janikowski connected on his 53rd field goal of 50-or-more yards, setting the all-time NFL record.

Baltimore was due some good fortune this season after being injury-ravaged and losing pretty much every close game last year on the way to a 5-11 record. And fortune has smiled on the Ravens so far in the franchise's first 3-0 start since 2009. The Ravens could have easily lost against the Bills and Browns and really should have lost last week in Jacksonville but prevailed 19-17. Justin Tucker's 54-yard field goal with 1:02 left was the difference. Baltimore turned the ball over three straight times in the fourth quarter, but the Jags kept shooting themselves in the foot and managed just 3 total points in the quarter.

Joe Flacco did set a team record in completing 21 straight passes in the game at one point but otherwise wasn't very good, throwing for 214 yards and two picks. He did rush for a score. Steve Smith caught eight passes for 87 yards. The defense played well with three interceptions, four sacks and just 216 yards allowed. Baltimore defense ranks No. 2 in the NFL and Oakland's offense is No. 2.

Baltimore leads the all-time series 7-2 and hasn't lost at home. The teams met in Week 2 last year in Oakland and the Raiders won 37-33. Carr hit Seth Roberts on a 12-yard TD pass with 26 seconds left. A Ravens penalty wiped out a Baltimore interception earlier in that drive. Carr threw for 351 yards and three touchdowns, with both Crabtree and Amari Cooper topping 100 yards and catching a score. Flacco threw for 384 yards, two TDs and a pick. Smith caught 10 passes for 150 yards.

Raiders at Ravens Betting Odds and Trends

Baltimore is a 3-point favorite (-125) with a total of 46. On the moneylines, the Ravens are -175 and Raiders +155. On the alternate lines, the Ravens are -3.5 (+100) and -2.5 (-150). Oakland is 2-1 against the spread this season (2-0 on road) and 2-1 "over/under" (1-1 on road). Baltimore is 2-1 ATS (1-0 at home) and 1-2 O/U (0-1 at home).

The Raiders are 5-0 ATS in their past five on the road. They are 7-2 ATS in their past nine vs. the AFC. But Oakland hasn't covered its past eight Week 4 games. Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its past five vs. the AFC. But the Ravens have covered only two of their past 12 at home. The over is 5-1 in Oakland's past six after a win. The under is 4-1 in the Ravens' past six at home. The Raiders are 0-5 ATS in their past five in Baltimore.

Raiders at Ravens Betting Prediction

A few ties between these franchises. Among them: the Raiders lured offensive lineman Kelechi Osemele from Baltimore with a five-year, $58.5 million deal this past offseason, and Osemele has been worth the money thus far. Raiders coach Jack Del Rio was the linebackers coach for Baltimore from 1999-2001, helping the Ravens win Super Bowl XXXV.

Oakland is the better overall team in my opinion. But this is one of those tricky 10 a.m. Pacific time kickoffs. From what I can tell, the Raiders didn't stay on the East Coast following last week's game in Nashville. Some coaches like to do that. Give the 2.5 points and go over the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Week*4 NFL

Colts (1-2) vs Jaguars (0-3) (in London)– Jacksonville lost its two home games by total of 6 points, amid rumors that Bradley could be fired with loss here, as bye week looms. Indy had one offensive TD in 25 drives vs Jaguars LY; they gave up 296 rushing yards to Jax in those two games. Colts won six of last seven games vs Jaguars, but lost last one 51-16 here LY- Indy is 10-5 in visits here. Colts hit long pass with 1:17 left to beat Chargers and get its first win LW; Indy 4-9-1 in its last 14 games as a favorite, 16-12-1 in last 29 games with spread of 3 or less points. Jaguars play game here every year; 5-11 in last 16 games with spread of 3 or less points. Home underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in divisional games this season.

Browns (0-3) @ Redskins (1-2)– Former Redskin QB RGIII returns to Maryland, with his arm in a sling. Browns started three different QBs in first three games, losing in OT after its rookie kicker missed FG at gun of regulation. Cleveland is 9-7-1 in last 17 games as a road underdog- they led last two weeks at half, ran ball for 145-169 yards, but couldn’t finish. Washington is 2-8 in its last ten games as a home favorite; they’ve already lost at home to Steelers/Dallas this year. Last two Redskin games were decided by total of 6 points- they won two of three series games, beating Browns 14-11 in ’08, in only meeting played here. NFC East teams are 4-2 vs spreas in non-divisional games; AFC North teams are 4-4.

Bills (1-2) @ Patriots (3-0)– Garoppolo/Brissett are both banged up, unsure who starts at QB in last game before Brady returns. Patriots are 23-2 in last 25 series games, winning 40-32/20-13 in two games vs Buffalo LY. Bills lost 14 of last 15 visits here, winning in ’14. Buffalo ran ball for 208 yards LW, in first game with new OC, after running for total of 151 in first two games, but they threw for only 88 yards- they’ll need lot more balance here. Buffalo is 4-1-1 vs spread in last six games as a divisional road dog, 7-5-1 in last 13 overall as a road dog. Patriots are 5-1-3 in last nine games as a home favorite- they’ve historically been stronger HF vs non-division foes. NFL-wide, home favorites are 3-7 vs spread in divisional games this season.

Seahawks (2-1) @ Jets (1-2)– Wilson has sprained knee, Seattle has bye week next; backup is TCU rookie Boykin (7-9/65 in mop-up duty LW). Seahawks are 5-6 in last 11 games as road favorite- they’re 6-3-2 in last 11 games with spread of 3 or less points. Jets turned ball over eight times LW in epic display of bad offense- they’re 8-2 vs spread in last 10 tries as home underdog, 6-10-1 in last 17 games with spread of 3 or less. Home side won last five series games; Seattle lost its last five games vs Jets in Swamp, but last visit was in 2003- they last beat Jets here in ’83. Jets lost 13-3/28-7 in last two visits to Seattle. NFC West teams are 1-4 vs spread in non-division games. AFC East teams are 5-3, 0-1 if favored.

Panthers (1-2) @ Falcons (2-1)– Atlanta scored nine TDs on 18 drives in winning last two games; average total in their first three games is 65 (over 3-0) . Falcons defense also allowed 12 TDs already, all on drives of 75+ yards- they’re not good. Panthers turned ball over 7 times (-4) in last two games; they’re 5-10 in last 15 games as road favorites, 10-5 in last 15 with a spread of 3 or less. Atlanta is 7-2 in last nine games as a home dog, 5-2 under Quinn in games with spread of 3 or less. Carolina defense has forced 17 3/outs, most in league- they won five of last seven series games, winning two of last three visits here, after losing previous five . NFL-wide, home underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in divisional games this season.

Lions (1-2) @ Bears (0-3)– Chicago is 8-23-3 vs spread in last 34 games with spread of 3 or less points- they were outscored 83-45 in losing first three games, losing to rookie QBs last two weeks; they’ve lost 11 of last 12 home games, are 2-10 as home dogs in last 4+ years. Check Cutler’s status (thumb). Lions allowed 69 points in splitting pair of road games- they have only two TDs in last six visits to red zone. Detroit won last six series games, with five of six wins by 8 or less points (37-34/24-20 LY); Lions won last three visits here, by 2-6-4 points. Detroit is 5-8 as road favorite last 4+ years, 12-15-2 in last 27 games with spread of 3 or less. Home underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in divisional games this season.

Titans (1-2) @ Texans (2-1)– Houston scored one TD in last two games; all three TDs NE scored against them LW came on drives of less than 50 yards. Titans were outscored 29-6 in first half of last two games; they’ve lost field position by 9-9-6 yards in first three games. Houston is 8-3 as home favorite under O’Brien (1-0 this year). Tennessee is 6-13 in last 19 games as road dog- they won only road game this year, 16-15 at Detroit. Texans are 7-1 in last eight series games, winning last four, all by 14+ points; Titans lost last four visits here, by 24-6-24-14 points. Tennessee scored one TD on 25 drives vs Texans LY, losing 20-6/34-6. NFL-wide, home favorites are 3-7 vs spread in divisional games. There are rumors that JJ Watt is hurt (back, check status) which would obviously hurt the Houston defense.

Raiders (2-1) @ Ravens (3-0)– Baltimore’s 3-0 start was vs Bills-Browns-Jags, not exactly a tough start, but 3-0 is 3-0; Ravens have only nine TDs, but tried nine FGs- they’re 7-2 in last nine games with Oakland- they lost 37-33 at Oakland in Week 2 LY. Raiders are 0-5 in Baltimore, losing last three by 19+ points each, but last visit was in ’12. Oakland is on road for third time in four weeks; they’ve run ball for 153 yards/game so far, with +4 turnover ratio. Oakland foes are just 11-33 on 3rd down. Ravens are 10-17-1 in last 28 games as home favorite. Raiders covered seven of last eight games as a road dog. AFC West teams are 7-3 vs spread outside the division; AFC North teams are 4-4.

Broncos (3-0) @ Buccaneers (1-2)– Tampa Bay allowed 77 points in losing last two weeks; they allowed defensive TD in both games. Bucs ran ball for 86 ypg so far- they miss injured RB Martin. Last 8+ years, Tampa Bay is 7-20-1 as a home dog- they gave up four TDs to Rams LW, after LA hadn’t scored a TD in first two games. Denver is off to 3-0 start in Siemian era; they’re 4-1-1 as a road favorite under Kubiak, 16-33 on 3rd down this year. Broncos are 6-2 vs Bucs, winning last three by 3-3-8 points; Tampa’s last series win was in 1999. Broncos are 2-1 here, with last visit in ’04. AFC West teams are 3-1 as favorites outside the division; NFC South teams are 3-5 vs spread in non-division games.

Cowboys (2-1) @ 49ers (1-2)– Dallas scored 29 ppg in winning last two games, scoring 7 TDs on last 19 drives; WR Bryant has hairline fracture in knee (check status). 49ers allowed 83 points in losing last two games, even with +1 turnover ratio both games. Niners allowed eight TDs on foes’ last 25 drives. Cowboys covered five of last six games as a road favorite; they are 2-7-2 in last 11 games where spread was 3 or less points; 49ers are 8-3-1 in last 12 games as home dog, 4-1 in last five where spread was 3 or less. Home side lost four of last five series games; Dallas won three of last four visits here- average total in last seven series games is 55.6. NFC East teams are 4-2 vs outside its division; NFC West teams are 2-4.


Saints (0-3) @ Chargers (1-2)– San Diego could easily be 3-0, but blew late leads in losing both road games. Saints’ QB Brees played first five years of career in San Diego, going 30-28 as a starter. NO won by 5-7 points in last two games vs Chargers- this is Brees’ first game back here since leaving the Bolts. Short week/long trip for Saints squad that allowed 417+ yards in all three games so far- they lost to Giants without allowing an offensive TD. San Diego is 5-8 in last 13 games as home favorite; Saints are 6-3-1 in last ten games as a road underdog. Saints have forced only five 3/outs on 28 drives, 4th-least in NFL. NFC South teams are 3-5 vs spread outside division; AFC West teams are 7-3.

Rams (2-1) @ Cardinals (1-2)— Redbirds are 11-8-1 as home favorite under Arians, but 4-6 in last 10 tries; they got smoked 33-18 in Buffalo LW, turning ball over five (-4) times; Buffalo’s three TD drives were 53-52-47 yards. Underdogs covered all three LA games; Rams upset Seattle/Tampa last two weeks, holding off Bucs in red zone as game ended LW- they scored four TDs in Tampa, after not having any on offense in first two games- they averaged 6.6/6.8 yards/pass last two games, solid numbers. Arizona won four of last five series games, with three wins by 17+ points; Rams split last six visits here, which is much shorter trip now that team is in LA.

Chiefs (2-1) @ Steelers (2-1)— Pitt lost 23-13 at Arrowhead LY, ending 3-game series win streak; Chiefs lost last five visits here, with four of those losses by 8 or less points. KC’s last win in Steel City was in ’86. Steelers are 13-6 in last 19 games as home favorite, 1-0 this year; they got whacked 34-3 in Philly LW after allowing only two TDs on 19 drives in winning first two games- they’ve forced only four 3/outs so far, tied for least in NFL. Pitt gets RB Bell (suspension) back this week; rumors had him taking some practice reps at WR. AFC West teams are 7-3 vs spread outside its division, 4-2 as underdogs. Chiefs had eight takeaways in win over Jets LW; their only TD drive (defense scored two) was 35 yards.

Giants (2-1) @ Vikings (3-0)— Giants’ three games were decided by total of six points; they beat Saints without scoring offensive TD, then lost 29-27 at home to Redskins LW, blowing 21-9 lead, allowing TD plays of 44-55 yards. Minnesota’s defense/special teams have three TDs, making up for offense (three TDs) that is getting used to new QB Bradford (beat Giants twice LY while with Eagles). Vikings are 9-2 as home favorite under Zimmer; Giants are 4-6-1 in last 11 games as a road underdog- they passed for 690 in two home games last two weeks, should enjoy climate inside dome. Minnesota allowed total of 40 points in three games; they gained only 284-211 yards in last two games, but lead NFL with a +8 turnover margin.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tech Trends - Week 4
By Bruce Marshall

Sunday, Oct. 2

INDIANAPOLIS vs. JACKSONVILLE from London (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
After losing six in a row SU vs. Colts, Jags won 51-16 last December. Colts "over" 7-3 last 10 away, Jags "over" 13-7 last 19.
Tech Edge: "Over," based on "totals" trends.

CLEVELAND at WASHINGTON (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Browns have covered last two but 4-9-1 last 14 on board. Skins 0-3 as chalk since LY and also 11-21 vs. line for Jay Gruden save the last four games of 2105 reg season when Skins surged late. Skins now "over" last eight since late 2015.
Tech Edge: "Over," based on "totals" trends.

BUFFALO at NEW ENGLAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Rex Ryan 0-1-1 vs. line against Belichick LY, but was 5-1 vs. spread against Pats in previous six with Jets. Bills no covers first two TY while Belichick has covered first three. Belichick 36-16 "over" at home since 2010.
Tech Edge: Slight to "over" and Patriots, based on "totals" and team trends.

SEATTLE at NY JETS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Seattle "under" 5-1-1 "under" last seven reg season. Jets 10-6-2 vs. line for Bowles since LY.
Tech Edge: "Under," based on recent "totals" trends.

CAROLINA at ATLANTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Falcs dealt Panthers their only reg.-season loss of 2015 at Georgia Dome LY. But that has been Atlanta's only cover last seven at home (1-6). Carolina 6-2 vs. line last eight meetings. Last six meetings "under" as well.
Tech Edge: Panthers and "under," based on series trends.

DETROIT at CHICAGO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bears are 1-8 SU and vs. line at home since LY for Fox. Chicago 1-7 last eight on board since late 2015. Lions on 8-3 spread uptick since mid 2015 and have won last three SU at Soldier Field.
Tech Edge: Lions, based on team trends.

TENNESSEE at HOUSTON (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Titans only 9-29-3 vs. line since late 2013. Houston has owned this series with five covers in a row and 9-1 last ten. O'Brien 6-1 as home chalk since 2015, also "under" 7-2 last nine at NRG and "under" 7-1 last eight since late 2015.
Tech Edge: Texans and "under," based on series and "totals" trends.

OAKLAND at BALTIMORE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Raiders have covered five straight on road. Tempted to toss Ravens 2015 numbers when injured and 1-6-1 at home vs. line, already 1-0 in 2016 at M&T Bank Stadium.
Tech Edge: Raiders, based on team trends.

DENVER at TAMPA BAY (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Kubiak was 7-1-2 vs. line away since LY and 4-1-1 as road chalk. Bucs only 3-6 vs. line as host since LY and on 1-6 spread slide since late 2015.
Tech Edge: Broncos, based on team trends.

DALLAS at SAN FRANCISCO (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Niners "under" 9-1 last ten at Santa Clara, Dallas "under" 12-8 last 20.
Tech Edge: "Under," based on "totals" trends.

NEW ORLEANS at SAN DIEGO (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Bolts only 3-11 vs. line last 14 at home though did clock the Jags in 2016 Qualcomm opener. Brees however 8-3-1 last 12 as dog.
Tech Edge: Saints, based on Brees dog marks.

LOS ANGELES at ARIZONA (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Arians 5-1 vs. line against Fisher since 2013, though game he lost came at home LY. Rams under" 14-5-1 last 20 since late 2014, also 3-7-1 last 11 away vs. points.
Tech Edge: Cards and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

KANSAS CITY at PITTSBURGH (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Chiefs only 1-5 as dog since 2015. Steel 8-2-1 vs. spread at home last 10 in reg season.
Tech Edge: Steelers, based on team trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL notebook: Browns WR Gordon headed to rehab facility
By The Sports Xchange

Cleveland Browns wide receiver Josh Gordon will put his football career on hold after the team announced Thursday that Gordon will enter an in-patient rehabilitation facility.
Gordon, who was suspended for the first four games in 2016, was scheduled to play his first game since 2014 on Oct. 9, but instead he is out indefinitely.
The NFL has suspended Gordon four times for violating its substance abuse policy. He was suspended for two games in 2013, 10 games in 2014, all 16 games in 2015 season and the first four games this year.
Gordon led the NFL in receiving with 1,646 yards in 2013. He has played in just five games since.

--Russell Wilson put to rest any question about his availability for Sunday's game when the Seahawks' quarterback said there is "no doubt" he will start for Seattle against the New York Jets.
Wilson sprained the medial collateral ligament in his left knee Sunday as Seattle improved to 2-1 this season with a win over the San Francisco 49ers.
He said his pain tolerance allows him to play with injuries. Wilson played with a sprained ankle in Week 2 and was still not 100 percent last week when he hurt his knee.
Wilson as a full participant in practice Wednesday and Thursday. He said there was no need for lobbying with the coaching staff because medical personnel gave him clearance to practice.

--Baltimore Ravens linebacker Elvis Dumervil confirmed to reporters what teammate Terrell Suggs initially divulged by saying that he expects to make his season debut against the visiting Oakland Raiders on Sunday.
Dumervil, who underwent foot surgery in the offseason, returned to practice last week, but sat out on Friday and remained inactive two days later in Baltimore's 19-17 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Dumervil is two years removed from a career high-tying 17 sacks. He has recorded 343 tackles and 95.5 sacks in nine seasons with the Denver Broncos and Ravens.

--Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler sat out Thursday's practice, strengthening the possibility that backup Brian Hoyer will make his second straight start on Sunday when the winless Bears host the Detroit Lions.
Cutler, who had limited participation on Wednesday, is nursing a sprained right thumb that is expected to require two to three weeks of recovery.
Cutler sustained the injury in the season opener versus the Houston Texans and aggravated it the following week against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Meanwhile, wide receiver Alshon Jeffery was limited in Thursday's practice as he nurses both knee and hamstring issues. Running back Jeremy Langford (ankle) sat out on Thursday and reportedly is expected to miss four to six weeks with an ankle injury he sustained versus Dallas. Rookie Jordan Howard is expected to make his first start.

--Dallas Cowboys defensive end Randy Gregory has officially been suspended 10 games without pay for violating the NFL's substance abuse policy, the league announced Thursday.
This latest suspension means Gregory will miss the first 14 games of the season. He is currently serving a four-game suspension for a previous violation of the substance abuse policy.
Gregory recently dropped his appeal of the 10-game suspension.
Gregory checked himself into a treatment center during the summer but reportedly later left the facility and missed a scheduled drug test.

--The New York Jets re-signed wide receiver/kick returner Jeremy Ross as the team prepares to be without rookie Jalin Marshall for a few weeks with a torn labrum.
Defensive lineman Lawrence Thomas (torn labrum) was placed on injured reserve to make room on the roster for Ross, who spent training camp and the preseason with the Jets before being released among the team's final cuts.
Thomas, who is an undrafted free agent from Michigan State, sustained a shoulder injury in Sunday's 24-3 loss to Kansas City.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

StatFox Super Situations

NFL*|*CLEVELAND*at*WASHINGTON
Play Against - Home teams (WASHINGTON) after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after a loss by 6 or less points
41-15*over the last 10 seasons.**(*73.2%*|*24.5 units*)

NFL*|*KANSAS CITY*at*PITTSBURGH
Play On - Home favorites of -160 to -475 vs. the money line (PITTSBURGH) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team
27-2*over the last 5 seasons.**(*93.1%*|*0.0 units*)

NFL*|*INDIANAPOLIS*at*JACKSONVILLE
Play Under - Any team where the first half total is 25 or higher after playing a game at home, in the first half of the season
54-23*over the last 10 seasons.**(*70.1%*|*28.7 units*)
2-0*this year.**(*100.0%*|*2.0 units*)

NFL*|*CAROLINA*at*ATLANTA
Play Under - Any team where the first half total is 25 or higher after playing a game at home, in the first half of the season
54-23*over the last 10 seasons.**(*70.1%*|*28.7 units*)
2-0*this year.**(*100.0%*|*2.0 units*)

 

[superbeets]

Spanish La Liga Su 2Oct 11:00

Valencia

v

Atl Madrid

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
SS5		10/3	12/5	10/11	More markets

​

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT VALENCIA	RECENT FORM
HLALHLALHWAW​ Most recent​	1 - 3 3 - 1 0 - 1 1 - 1	AWAWHWADHWHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Atletico have scored in their last nine games against Valencia

EXPERT VERDICT: It’s been a tough fixture schedule for Atletico Madrid with matches against Barcelona and Bayern Munich but Diego Simeone’s side are robust enough to battle their way through fatigue to see off average Valencia. Atletico have conceded twice in eight games this term and usually need only one goal for victory.

RECOMMENDATION: Atletico Madrid
2

 

[superbeets]

Italian Serie A Su 2Oct 11:30

Empoli

v

Juventus

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
SS3		10	9/2	2/7	More markets

​

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT EMPOLI	RECENT FORM
HLALHWADHLAL​ Most recent​	1 - 3 0 - 2 0 - 0 2 - 1	HWHDALHWAWAW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Juventus have kept clean sheets in three of their last four away games this season

EXPERT VERDICT: Juventus's only league defeat this season (a 2-1 reverse at Inter) came at the end of a Champions League week but they are unlikely to falter at lowly Empoli. The Old Lady have posted three successive wins without conceding and can register another shutout at the Stadio Carlo Castellani.

RECOMMENDATION: Juventus to win 2-0
1