NFL WRITE-UP
Week 1
Sunday, September 13
Dolphins @ Falcons-- Both teams went 11-5 LY after being doormats the year before; Miami lost its first road game the last five years, is 1-4 in last five series openers, but they're also 9-4-2 as road underdog, 15-6 as non-divisional road dog since 2004. Falcons won their first home tilt in four of last five seasons; they were 5-2-1 as home favorite LY, 6-1-1 as a single digit favorite. Four of Atlanta's last five openers stayed under the total. Dolphins are 21-13-1 vs spread on artificial turf since 2000.
Chiefs @ Ravens-- Home team lost last three series games; Chiefs won their last three visits to this site, but this is whole new Chief team (new QB-coach-GM). KC covered seven of last nine when getting 7+ points, but they're 12-20 vs spread as single digit underdog since '05. Baltimore won last three home openers by 22-7-7 points; they're 23-6-1 vs spread as non-divisional home favorite since 2000 (only 13-10-1 vs divisional foes). Chiefs lost last three season openers by 13-17-7 points. Cassel is practicing with a knee brace after am injury in an exhibition game- when a team fires its offensive coordinator during camp, it can't be a good sign.
Eagles @ Panthers-- Philly lost first road game three of last four years, but they're 8-2 vs spread in last ten tries as road underdog (13-7 as road dog in non-divisional games this decade, 14-8-2 as dog of 3 or less pts). Eagles had injury issues on OL during camp. Carolina lost four of last five home openers, but are 9-5-1 vs spread in last 15 games as a favorite of three or less points. Under is 12-7-1 in Panthers' first four games the last five years. Lined moved from Carolina -1 to Philly -1, primarily due to Panthers' dreadful 0-4 showing in preseason games.
Broncos @ Bengals-- Denver had worst offseason in recent memory, as they downgraded at both head coach/QB. Broncos finished 27-30th in rush defense last two years; they're 6-10 as road dog the last three years, 11-14-1 in last 26 games as single digit dog. Bengals won four of last five home openers; they're 11-19-2 vs spread as a home favorite since 2001, 6-12-1 as single digit favorite the last three years. Cincinnati ranked 24-26-29th in rushing yardage the last three years.
Vikings @ Browns-- Favre played for Mangini with Jets LY; word was the two didn't get along very well. QB issues abound on both sides, with winner of Browns' QB derby still being kept a secret, like its a freaking military secret. Favre showed up August 18 and was anointed Vikings' savior, but is he ready to play a full game? Browns lost last four season openers, by 14-5-27-18 points, scoring just 11 ppg. Minnesota is 5-10-1 vs the spread in its games vs AFC teams last four years- they lost four of last five road openers, but were underdog in all five games.
Jets @ Texans-- Jersey Jets won last three series games by average score of 25-11; they covered 12 of last 18 as road dog, but are 5-14-1 vs spread in 19 games as non-divisional road dog. LY, Jets improved from 29th to 7th in rush defense, 26th to 7th in sacks, 19th to 9th in rushing offense LY, so why exctly did they change coaches? Texans are 16-16 last two years, despite -23 turnover ratio; if they protect ball better this season, they're solid playoff sleeper team. Texans lost four of last five openers.
Jaguars @ Colts-- Jax is 2-3 in last five visits here, but no losses were by more than seven points; Jags' season was messed up in opener LY when they lost two OL guys for year in first game- they finished 18th LY in rushing, their worst rank since 2001. Indy won four of last five openers, with wins by 14-7-19-31 points, but hard to overestimate loss of coach Dungy, a calming force. Colts having issues at LT, protecting Manning's blindside. Jaguars are 16-8-1 vs spread in last 25 games as a road dog.
Lions @ Saints-- Detroit went 0-16 LY, losing 42-7 at home to Saints late in season, game in which Brees was 30-40/351 passing in easy win; Lions are 31-97 SU this decade, but covered 13 of last 16 when getting double digit points- they're 15-13 as non-divisional dog on road the last six seasons. Saints were 4-1 as home fave LY after 4-14 mark previous four years- they're 0-2 as double digit favorite since '01, 5-10 as a home favorite in non-divisional games since '04. Lions lost three of last four road openers, with all three losses by 13+ points.
Cowboys @ Bucs-- A new coach, new QB for retooled Bucs, who also lost starting safety (suspension) for first four games. Tampa is 7-3-1 vs spread in last 11 games as home dog, 5-1-1 in non-divison games. Bucs are 6-8-2 vs spread in last 16 games as dog of three or less points. Dallas covered last six tries as road favorite of three or less points; they're 11-8 as road favorite since '03. Three of last four series totals were 22 or less. Leftwich got nod as starting QB, then Bucs traded McCown to Jaguars, after many had thought McCown outplayed Leftwich this summer. This was after Tampa Bay fired their offensive coordinator. Uh-oh.
49ers @ Cardinals-- Niners have 7th offensive coordinator in last seven years, 3rd OL coach in last three- they decided on Hill as starting QB, while NFC champ Cardinals have explosive offense back led by Warner with HC Wisenhunt now calling plays. Underdog is 4-0 vs spread in the 49ers' last four visits here, with teams splitting the games. Cardinals are 11-8 as home favorite since 2005, but just 5-9 in last 14 games as home favorite in NFC West games. Niners are 11-4-1 as divisional road dog.
Redskins @ Giants-- Big Blue covered first meeting in this twice-yearly series last five years, winning four of last five games played here, with wins by 6-28-16-9 points. Average total in last three series games played here was 25.7. Giants are hurting at WR, so they'll try to run ball down Redskins' throats-- Washington ranked 4th/8th in rush defense last two years. Skins covered five of last six as road dog in divisional games, but are 12-14 as single digit dog since '05. Giants are 19-11 as home faves. Former Giant QB Woodson is now on Redskin practice squad, no doubt Washington coaches are picking his brain.
Rams @ Seahawks-- Seattle won last eight series games, taking last four here by average score of 31-14 (3-1 vs spread); Hawks are 8-3 vs spread an an NFC West home fave since '05, 9-6 as home fave in all games the last two years. Rams lost last five road openers, getting outscored 62-6 last two years- they're 11-19 as road dog since '04, 15-27 vs spread as a single digit dog during that time. Both coaches are in first game with new team. Interesting to see if Rams are any better at stopping running game. Bulger hasn't played since breaking pinky on right hand last month.
Bears @ Packers-- Cutler makes Bear debut here, highest touted QB for Chicago since Luckman. 177th meeting in NFL's oldest rivalry-- Bears had won four in a row at Lambeau before the 37-3 debacle here last year. Chicago is 16-23-2 as road dog since '02, but 5-3-1 in division road games the last five years. Packers switched defenses with Capers the new DC; they're 8-6 as home favorite since 2006, 5-3 in NFC North games. Pack is just 2-3 SU in its last five home openers, winning last two by 3-5 pts.