Sun 2-27 thru MM Selection Day Bet & Blog

[pops69]

good morning all from a nice and sunny day here in vegas. I dont believe i'll have any combine bets for today, but i do plan a few from myself, and none of them start before 11:00, so I'm going to go to BF, relax and see what kind of line movement we get and will post them around 10:30am pst.

i also do some talking (i know you all cant wait for the) about my 2 rules of betting.

1. Dont chase Lines
2. Never break rule #1

Plus i talk about a few fade patters

Pile on or off
false negative & false positives

and examples as well

when i look at the amount of work we did yesterday, and how many games we bet vs what we made, and than look as some of the cappers games from yesterday, we sure could have done much better fadding a couple with much less work

back at you in about an hour

glta

 

[pops69]

bets for today

i still have one more later game, but it looking like a false negative, and need to see more before i post it.

i'm changing the two plays below to 1/2 unit, because a couple of cappers that have been very cold have these same two games.

n ill -3
wisc BG +3-

going to relax for a little, and be back around noon

glta

 

[pops69]

pile on and pile off

i was going to use a few examples from last night, but what better time than now to talk about this subject, and we can use Mich St today as an excellent example.

Game opens at msu -4, than this am gaps to -5 that goes up steady to -6- at game time. now were talking about teams that the odds makers know everything about all the players, home court advantages etc. we had 4 or 5 games yesterday the same way.

you always here everyone saying i'm glad that i got it early. we had about 100 games yesterday, and i cant find one where if you bet it early you won, but if you bet it late your lost, it does happen from time to time but not that often.

these situations usually happen when a couple of pay per play services give out the same team.

the only way to avoid being in this position is to not bet early. i know that i do this from time to time and it cost me more than it makes me.

a pile off game is the opposit of pile on toledo & CMU is a good example of that yesterday, as it opened at -15- corrected to -14 the next am, and got bet down to 12

i do find that you lose more often when you pile on vs pile off

ND was another pile on game today, we'll see what happens there

btw my last game was st pete, which was a false negative game, i had it as a 1:00 game but it when off at 11:00, we'll see how that goes as well

i'll take a look at some of the later games to see if i can come up with anything

gl

 

[pops69]

adding

1-1 or 0-1-1 depending where and when you bet N ill as it moved to -2- about 15 min b4 game time

adding

north car -6 straight out fade

SMU +9- or more

glta

 

[pops69]

Quick Rap Up

smu was solid, but my fade with n car didnt come home

march madness - i pulled out my sheets from last year, if any would find it usefull i'm willing to scan the casino sheets from the 1st 4 days of MM, it has all the lines open/close and final scores. if you interested just send me an email and i'll send them to you

nite all, be back tomorrow

 

[TheQuest]

Pops - I would like to see the casino sheets from last year. I clicked on your name to email you, but it said you do not want to receive emails. Should I just email the general?

Also, thanks for the explanations this morning, but I had a question. I understand the "pile on" with everyone betting on Mich St, but am a little unclear on why the Cent Mich game was a "pile off". Couldn't you also say that everyone "piled on" Cent Mich, driving the line down? Mostly curious as what you view the differentiator between the two (pile on and pile off). In general, it seems like you will always fade line movements, but you seem to have a good feel for when the line movement is due to an uneducated public blindly following (and therefore a good fade) and when the move is due to something else. Is this something you have developed over the years or are there more specific things you look for?

Thanks Pops.

 

[pops69]

beautiful day to make some $$$

good morning all from lv, sun is out and i feel great after a day of not drinking.

it looks like were are going to see a bunch of line moves today

quest - my email is. also you could say pile on cmu, but i just like to ref using the fav with the opening line as either pile on or pile off, just the way i look at it. the outsome is the same way. we have a few games today that are going that way, although one is because of an injury. but if it goes too far dont be afraid to go the other way, it's not like the lv odds makers didnt know about it, why do you think they have it as a circled game? **** i got caught on the BC game as well with seton hall bets scorer suspended as well, shouldnt have bet it the night before. bad things always happen when i do that

i'll be sending out the casino sheets for those that email me in a couple of days, they have all the open and close for games and half, many of the o/h. this is the 1st year that i'll be using it for this years games, but overall i didnt see much line movement many ups & down eg -1- to -1 back to -1- etc

going to bf, back at you all in a couple of hours

so far the following are starting to look as pile on games
bc
drexel
AF
LV
n ariz

only time will tell, you also need to see how much noise you are getting on each

 

[pops69]

basic capping 101

i know that most of you prob already do this but for those that dont lets cover some basics, we will use AF & SDSU, as that could be a pile on game today.

AF Home 11-1
AF Away 5-10

SD Home 7-8
SD Away 3-7

so at the basic cut level, you would say that neither team is a barn burner on the road.

now lets take a deeper look

Scoring AVG H/A

AF Home/Away 65/49 off
AF Home/Away 56/56 def

SD Home/away 69/69 off
SD Home/away 69/73 def

On this cut I look for a team that is over 10 points diff on off home vs away and AF is -16

Now one step deeper, head on head (away only - this takes away the home court advantage)

Common Teams Played last 10 games

Wyoming

AF lost by 4 and were -3 vs the spread
SD lost by 3 and were +5 vs the spread

New Mexico

AF lost by 11 and were -7 vs the spread
SD lost by 17 and were -7 vs the spread

For info only AF was -9- vs SDSU at home late last year and won by 11

so vegas set the opening line at -2- without slaughter. so the question is what should the line have been with him playing at 100%, and how much is one person in college worth?

enough cappling lessons for today, lets see where this line goes, and it's a very late game and will depend on which pay service give out AF and how much betters are down for the day and looking for a game or two to dig themselves out of a hole

glta

 

[pops69]

scanning the last year casino sheets now

each sheet is 8 1/2 x 14 and i only have a 8 12/ x 11 scanner so you will get 2 scans per page and have to print them and than tape together. they will be in rtf format, you can open with ms word or word pad

gl

 

[pops69]

file sharing alternatives

my email is still cranking on the 1st send, it's almost 30 mb of files. anyone know any other way that i get the delivered?

 

[HNYLOC]

yousendit.com

 

[pops69]

tks hnyloc

i pkzip all the 2003 files and sent them by yousendit.com, to all the members that email me. any of you that get them let me know if it worked

gl

 

[Tulsa]

I am just watching the boards and want you to know, POPS, that many in this forum seems to be on Texas. A lot of people. I have not read one person that has picked Oklahoma. tulsa

Also, Texas started out at -2 and is tending toward -1.5 now.

 

[pops69]

tulsa - texas

i'm leaning toward okla plus, need to see more line movement, all the services havent given out their plays yet. we should no more in the next hour or so

gl

p.s we still have 2- here, and wsex and bo still -2-

 

[pops69]

bets for today

the game i like the best has had a 3 point move so, staying off n. ariz unless the line moves down a notch or two

all games today are combine plays

AF under -114
Texas under 137-
Ill St +1
Wichita St -5

for later we are looking hard at New Mex plus the points vs unlv, but wait, believe that that line will move up much more

i'll be heading for the casino, but plan to come back before the two late game (unless the booz talks me out of it)

none of the big line move came about today.

glta

 

[Tulsa]

Good luck and thanks. tulsa

 

[pops69]

request for MM 2003 bet sheets

i have sent out the sheets to all that have requested, have no idea how long it takes yousendit to notify you, and what the procedure is for getting them.

maybe i'll send myself a small file to see how it works

later all, on my way to the casino to place some bets

p.s. it works slicker than ****, you can kill the link and not save it on the server because i sent each to a seperate location

 

[JARBrigger]

Pops????

Anyone heard from Pops69?? I haven't see anything from him for today.

Thanx!!

 

[pops69]

short and to the point

pulled an all nighter, last night, just got home a few hours ago.

more about that tomorrow

all combine picks for today

tenn tech -11
e. kent -6-
wright st -2
ill chig -13

got luck last night in that the casino didnt have any o/u on AF, took new mex late, but that lost on Ill st line went to P, so i violated my own rules #1 and #2

i did sent out the 2003 stuff to all that sent me emails requesting them, so let me know if you didnt.

i going to hit the sack, and hopefully wake up tomorrow morning with a happy face and cash some tickets

nite all, and back at you all tomorrow

 

[pops69]

god, it feels good to be alive

no big happy face this morning, as i go 2-2, lost by the all mighty hook again. been looking at this early game, and i see the line opened wolfford -5 and is now 5-. Last year in the first round of the so conf playoff, only one team covered that was with the line move, and another half point and it would not have.

Taking elon +5-

i'm looking at the 2nd game now w. car & geo southern line opened at -10- is now -10

back about 9:30 am pst

p.s. i have sent out all the 2003 ncaa casino sheets to all that asked, so if you have not received an email from yousendit saying they were ready to download let me know