that poll is 9 days old.
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040917/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/iraq_weapons_10
give it a couple days game
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040917/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/iraq_weapons_10
give it a couple days game
Although I still think Bush will win, you should know that Gallup is one of the worst polling groups out there. Most other countries don't take them at all seriously.
The fact that they've got this race at 13 points is testament to that.
The fact that they've got this race at 13 points is testament to that.
In the Pew poll Democrats were over-sampled (only on the 2nd night however). They also polled 21% unregistered voters, and spread the polling out in some absurdly convulated way that I can't understand. The Harris poll is wacked as well; they had Bush up 10 points in June when everyone else had the race neck and neck.
Xpanda, to me Gallop is at the top regarding reliability as long as they use a large enough sample size (in 2000 they had daily tracking polls that only sampled 400 a night...those numbers jumped around a lot). I doubt Bush is up 13 points, but just glancing at the state numbers from New York, Illinois and New Jersey tells me there is no way in hell Kerry is tied.
Then there is the Pinnacle poll which is the most accurate of all. Kerry +216.
Xpanda, to me Gallop is at the top regarding reliability as long as they use a large enough sample size (in 2000 they had daily tracking polls that only sampled 400 a night...those numbers jumped around a lot). I doubt Bush is up 13 points, but just glancing at the state numbers from New York, Illinois and New Jersey tells me there is no way in hell Kerry is tied.
Then there is the Pinnacle poll which is the most accurate of all. Kerry +216.
TT,
I just tell it like I see it.
I was a big supporter of O'Reilly until his shift to the left. I was a regular viewer of his show. He's done some good work. I hope he gets back on track or he's done on the radio atleast.
The pew poll uses poor sampling, that's well known. What good is it to poll unlikely voters?
As far as I know Gallup is one of the best polls.
I just tell it like I see it.
I was a big supporter of O'Reilly until his shift to the left. I was a regular viewer of his show. He's done some good work. I hope he gets back on track or he's done on the radio atleast.
The pew poll uses poor sampling, that's well known. What good is it to poll unlikely voters?
As far as I know Gallup is one of the best polls.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Shotgun:
Xpanda, to me Gallop is at the top regarding reliability as long as they use a large enough sample size (in 2000 they had daily tracking polls that only sampled 400 a night...those numbers jumped around a lot). I doubt Bush is up 13 points, but just glancing at the state numbers from New York, Illinois and New Jersey tells me there is no way in hell Kerry is tied.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Kerry is probably down by 4 or 5 points. I think that will get worse, though, but doubt it's anywhere near 13, right now. Gallop not only interviews too small a sample, they choose their area codes discriminately. Their methodology is unreliable.
Xpanda, to me Gallop is at the top regarding reliability as long as they use a large enough sample size (in 2000 they had daily tracking polls that only sampled 400 a night...those numbers jumped around a lot). I doubt Bush is up 13 points, but just glancing at the state numbers from New York, Illinois and New Jersey tells me there is no way in hell Kerry is tied.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Kerry is probably down by 4 or 5 points. I think that will get worse, though, but doubt it's anywhere near 13, right now. Gallop not only interviews too small a sample, they choose their area codes discriminately. Their methodology is unreliable.
kaya,
It's a fact the majority of Americans can't stand trial lawyers and liberal politicians. Name one US elected President that ran on I'm a liberal and proud of it. Liberal canidates do not admit to it. Clinton didn't, Gore didn't and I have not heard Kerry stand proud as a liberal because he knows his run is over if he tells the people he's a proud liberal.
It's a fact the majority of Americans can't stand trial lawyers and liberal politicians. Name one US elected President that ran on I'm a liberal and proud of it. Liberal canidates do not admit to it. Clinton didn't, Gore didn't and I have not heard Kerry stand proud as a liberal because he knows his run is over if he tells the people he's a proud liberal.
I wish you were right, game, but I dont' think so. Alot of these polls oversampled Republicans. Turnout last 2 presidential elections was 39% dem, 35% repub, and 26% independent. I don't have the numbers right in front of me, but that Gallup poll was 40% repub., 33% dem. and 27 independent. Now you have the chicken or the egg theory in full force here, are more people identifying themselves as republicans that are supporting Bush, driving republican numbers up for party affiliation, or are too many republicans being sampled? I happen to think too many republicans are answering the phone. Hopefully I am wrong and Bush is way ahead, but I don't believe that to be the case. I think Bush is up around 3 points.
