Successful Angle: Bubble Home Team Dog Playing Ranked Opponent

[Kojak]

This month I have been playing an angle that I have had quite a bit of success with that I want to share. I have been playing bubble home teams who are underdogs playing ranked opponents or top team in conference.

Butler +3 vs Wisc Milw- su win
UAB+3 vs Cincinnati- su win
Georgia +3 vs Kentucky-su win
Wake Forest +3 vs Duke- su win
Wyoming +3 vs Utah-su win
Notre Dame +? vs UCONN -su win
Notre Dame +2 vs Seton Hall-su win
Oregon +3 vs Stanford- push

For a record of 7-0-1.

Today, I have 5 games I am playing that imo fall into this category.

Oklahoma +2.5 vs Texas

West Virginia +6.5 vs Pittsburgh

Arkansas +2.5 vs South Carolina (doesn't fall under bubble team in Arkansas but qualifies under other criteria)

Auburn +3 vs Kentucky

Georgetown +2 (doesn't qualify with G-Town not a bubble team but 13-9 vs Cuse but hits other criteria)

I listed these plays so you can follow the angle. I wouldn't be surprised if 4 or all 5 dogs win outright. These might be good games to play the moneyline. Any thoughts?

 

[trytrytry]

Very sweet, thanks for sharing this.

 

[Kojak]

Two points I would like to add to this angle. First, all of these plays were on opening lines of 2 points or higher towards ranked teams. Second, you can call it coincidence but according to don best opening lines, 6 of those games opened up at 3 (Butler,UAB,Georgia,Wyoming,Wake Forest, and Oregon). Out of the 5 plays today, Auburn and Arkansas opened up at 3.

 

[GreenDoberman]

Very good info Kojak,
Like a few, don't like others (mainly G'Town and Ark).
Hope it goes well.

 

[Kojak]

gd,

thanks for support and best of luck.

 

[Kojak]

Adding to this angle is that the majority of these ranked teams were on the second of back to back road games or begining off back to back road games and the curious thing is they lost both of back to back.

Wisc Milw- Lost to Youngstown, then to Butler

Cincinnati- Lost to Wake Forest, then to UAB

Kentucky- lost to Georgia, Auburn?

Duke- lost to NC State, then to Wake Forest

Utah- (didn't qualify but played back to back road games) won at Colorado St., lost to Wyoming

UConn- lost to Notre Dame, then to Pitt

Seton Hall- did not play back to back road games

Stanford- obviously has not lost

So out of the 8 games, 5 qualify under this subset with 1 played back to back but won 1st game.

 

[bucsfan67]

unfortunately for me that angle didnt work thursday, when i took Oregon at home (+3) against arizona....

but of course Oregon's leading scorer could only get 42 so i didnt expect to cover..

 

[Kojak]

bucsfan,

The opening line on that game was 1.5 so it didn't qualify though I also had Oregon. Best of luck.

 

[bucsfan67]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Kojak:
bucsfan,

The opening line on that game was 1.5 so it didn't qualify though I also had Oregon. Best of luck.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>


GL TO YOU TOO, MY FRIEND

 

[mr.obvious]

KOJAK YOU ARE SURELY NOT CALLING AUBURN A BUBBLE TEAM. WHILE THEY ARE 13-9 OVERALL THEY ARE ONLY 4-7 IN THE CONFERENCE. THEY ARE NOT A BUBBLE TEAM AND IF THEY FINISH WITH AN EVEN RECORD THAT IN MY OPINION WOULD BE AN ACCOMPLISHMENT.

 

[oddsman]

I have seen something simular in another forum. It states to play an unranked team at home against a ranked team with the exception of Duke, St. Joes, Stanford, and Gonzaga. It has ran nicely at a 49-29 clip YTD. Last Thursday it went 0-2 but it has to lose sometimes.

 

[Kojak]

Mr. Obvious,

The are 13-9 and yes below .500 in conference. Last time I checked there was still 2.5 weeks before conference tournament. Does Auburn still have a chance to be over .500 in conference? Yes! In power conferences, do teams that finish over .500 with a fairly decent record make the tournament. Yes! This team has not been eliminated unless you were on the committee. With that being said, are they likely to make the tournament. NO! But until it is a fact, they are still there. A lot of people would say Maryland was in the dance right now with an at large but they are 4-7 in the conference. According to your theory, they are not a bubble team? If you don't agree with my angle, simply don't use it. I was simply trying to be helpful and share something with other. Obviously, people don't care so I'll simply keep my business to myself.

 

[Enigmatics]

I think the one thing that scares me from taking 'Cuse is because G'Town just came back home from a horrendous 3 game road trip. Teams this year when getting back on their home court tend to put it back together for a game or two.

It's the strangest thing though........system plays like that. Especially that good unranked team being the dog at home one. I swear they've covered or won SU in ridiculous percentages this year.

 

[mr.obvious]

KOJAK, DID NOT MEAN TO RUFFLE ANY FEATHERS. JUST STATING MY OPINION ON THIS. I DO READ YOUR POSTS AND PUT A LOT OF STOCK IN WHAT YOU SAY, BUT JUST DONT AGREE ON THIS GAME. AGAIN I DIDNT MEAN TO CRITICIZE YOUR THEORY JUST THIS GAME.

GOOD LUCK TO YOU

 

[Kojak]

Mr. Obvious,

This is an angle I started using a month ago. I simply wasn't trying to push it onto people but just wanted to open some eyes. I know you are on Kentucky today and you follow them alot and offer a lot of knowledge in regards to them. The point I was disagreeing with you on was what constitutes a bubble team. I did not take it personal but simply explaining my point. I respect and follow your selections and look for it regularly. Best of luck.