Stuper Bowl preview

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Midweek Rufus woke-up from his props-induced coma and drug himself out for two computer-free days of golf/rehab. He’s back in full obsession mode now, but in-between he called just long enough to drop a few numbers and wave toward the blog before running off to new hunting grounds. So, fresh from the front lines of the biggest sportsbook week of the year…
We have this game Pats -2.45. That’s been evident since we posted our final power rankings last Monday. The line moved our way for awhile but has since settled around Pats -1. At Pick and Pats -1 it’s a “Break-Even or Better” (52.5-54%). At Pats +1 it’s an “Other Play” (54-55%). At Pat +2 it becomes a “Big Play” (55%+).
A lot of people seem to have expected us to be on Seattle. Many have asked whether public money is just over-reacting to the Pats running away from the Colts in the AFC Championship. Maybe. Probably even. But going into the Championship weekend we would have made NE -1.17 vs. SEA. Then our model dropped SEA a bit (from +7.29 to +7.06) due to their shenanigans with the Packers, and bumped NE substantially (for this late in the year), from +8.46 to +9.51. Perhaps the public moved even more, which means our edge would be greater if they would’ve just beaten the Colts by 6 like they were “supposed” to. But the short answer is that we’ve had the Pats #1 in the league since Week 15 and were not at all surprised to be on their side.
If you want a total we have it 49.5. We don’t work as hard on our totals as our lines so take it for what it’s worth. That puts us on the Over, but there’s not a lot of edge there.
Together that means we have the score 25.975-23.525. For an actual football score we’ll go with 26-24.
Enjoy it! And thanks for hanging with us this season.
Conference Championships Recap
Our Big Play on GB +7 managed to hang on, barely, despite the Packers late-game collapse. The cover got Big Plays back into plus territory (again, barely) to end the year. This week…
Big Plays (20.5-20-0.5 YTD)

• none

Other Plays (17-10-1 YTD)

• none

Break-Even or Better (15-25.5-0.5 YTD)

• New England -1 vs. Seattle [MP Line: NE -2.45]

Posted on January 30, 2015
By Cade MasseyNFL NFL 2014 Weekly Picks

 

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http://shar.es/1o1IUK

 

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[h=2]Who Will Win Super Bowl 49?[/h] That’s how these teams got here. Let’s look at the head-to-head matchup in each of those categories.
[h=3]#1 – Multi-Dimensionality[/h] Seattle gets the best of it because of the much better defense and running game. Yes, Tom Brady gets some of that back with his low-risk passing offense that moves the chains. But, this is a Patriots team that only rushed for 14 yards against Baltimore! They’re not likely to have a big game on the ground vs. Seattle’s scary front. Seattle can win in a variety of ways. New England has to win on the arm of Tom Brady.
[h=3]#2 – Schedule Strength[/h] A virtual dead heat because both teams faced similar regular season schedules. Neither is a pretender in danger of being exposed when stepping up in class. Both are battle-tested.
[h=3]#3 – Defence[/h] Seattle has the edge here obviously. Though, I do want to point out that the team isn’t quite breathing fire the way they were last season. They’re more comfortable sitting back and giving the opposing quarterback time to make decisions. Cam Newton of Carolina led the Panthers to 362 total yards and 56% on third down conversions. Aaron Rodgers also had a lot of time to pass in many instances last week. So, the nod goes to Seattle but it’s far from a sure thing that they’ll disrupt Brady.
[h=3]#4 – Moving The Chains, Turnovers[/h] Moving the chains is a New England specialty, so it’s probably best to give them the nod here. Seattle’s defense is generally very stingy though and Seattle knows the value of field position. Edge to the Patriots…but probably not in a one-sided manner.
New England had the superior turnover differential through the regular season with an edge of +12 to Seattle’s +9. Obviously the Patriots continued that through the playoffs while Seattle survived an implosion! Both teams generally thrive in this area. It’s one of the hallmarks of the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era. Last year’s Seattle team was fantastic, and it’s mostly the same guys. Tempted to call this a tie, with the knowledge that Seattle will really need to improve its execution from last week’s debacle.
[h=3]#5 – Game Conditions[/h] The teams will be playing in great conditions thanks to the retractable roof in Arizona. That will be welcome relief to both quarterbacks who haven’t seen warm, dry conditions for awhile. At first glance, you might think this favors Tom Brady’s passing arm. It’s worth noting that Seattle has already played a game this season at this site. They crushed Arizona 35-6 with a stunning 596-216 advantage in total yards. Both offenses are capable of playing very well at this site.

 

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[h=2]Super Bowl 49 Prediction[/h] Putting it all together, “classic” handicapping would point to Seattle in a game that’s rated about a toss-up by the betting markets. They have more balance and a better defense. That’s what wins neutral site playoff football. But, there are some interesting intangibles in play here. Most notably:
- Seattle just won the Super Bowl last year, and is NOT playing with the same dynamic intensity. They are no longer a force of nature.
- New England hasn’t won a Super Bowl in 10 years even though the Belichick/Brady era will go down in history books as a dynasty. The franchise surely realizes this may be the last chance to lift the Lombardi Trophy one more time in this lengthy chapter. If you like making picks based on the fire you see in the players’ eyes…that advantage this month goes to Brady.
I’ll go with New England 27, Seattle 24 for a formal prediction…which would be leans to the Patriots and the Over at the time of publication. I’d expect potential turnover differentials to swing scoreboard differential off that axis. If re-focused Seattle wins the turnover battle, they win the game because of their edges in the fundamentals. If New England wins the turnover battle, their margin could easily drift up to larger margins.
Best of luck to you whoever you’re rooting for on Super Sunday. Great to see that it’s come down to the two best teams in the NFL battling it out to crown a champion.

 

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Vegas casinos on Super Bowl wordingBy MATT YOUMANS
LAS VEGAS ***************


A man of few words, New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick has been stuck on a few Super Bowl wins for 10 years. In all five of his trips, the game went to the wire.
All three of the Patriots’ wins under Belichick were decided by three points. The two losses were by three and four points. His sixth trip figures to be another photo finish.
Of course, Tom Brady has been Belichick’s quarterback on each trip. Who is more important to New England’s success, Belichick or Brady? It’s one of those questions with no definitive answer — some guys say Ginger and others prefer Mary Ann — because one needs the other to stay at the top for so long.
Who will win this Super Bowl? The answer is coming Sunday night from Glendale, Ariz., and there are compelling arguments for both sides. The line reflects as much, with the Seattle Seahawks opening as favorites before the Patriots were bet to 1-point favorites.
“I’ve really got no opinion,” William Hill sports book director Nick Bogdanovich said. “But if you put a gun to my head, I would go with Seattle.”
The line at William Hill’s books opened pick’em and has not budged, though Bogdanovich said about 65 percent of the wagers have been on New England.
Last week, I looked at the Seattle argument, which is based on the defending champions being more physical and the fact the NFL’s No. 1-ranked defense almost always wins in these situations. This time last year, the Seahawks were underdogs and made a mockery of Peyton Manning in a 43-8 blowout of Denver.
The public was infatuated with Manning and the Broncos, and it turned out to be a fatal attraction. This scene is eerily similar. There is no denying it.
Two weeks ago, the Patriots pounded Indianapolis in the AFC title game after the Seahawks needed a miracle comeback to stun Green Bay in the NFC title game. Most bettors tend to overreact to what they saw most recently, and there is no denying it.
But with assistance from Bernie Fratto, an ESPN Radio host in Las Vegas, I’ll argue the Seahawks are not as strong as last year and the Patriots are not popular paper tigers resembling Manning and the Broncos.
It all starts with Brady, a far better big-game quarterback than Manning, and Belichick, a defensive genius not to be confused with John Fox.
“I’ve always felt Belichick is the gold standard when it comes to game-planning and devising a defensive scheme to pin the bear, and he’s been doing it since 1987,” said Fratto, a former Detroit Lions radio host. “Remember, Bill Parcells never won a Super Bowl without Belichick by his side. And for good reason.
“Belichick’s ability to neutralize and nullify an opponent’s strength is unparalleled. Seattle lacks the offensive depth to beat a Belichick defense, in my view.”
That’s a big key, in my opinion, too. The Seahawks’ top wide receivers — Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse — are mediocre at best. Percy Harvin and Golden Tate are long gone. Belichick can focus his defensive scheme on clogging up Marshawn Lynch’s running lanes without fearing Seattle’s impotent vertical passing attack.
There is a fear factor with Russell Wilson, who is most dangerous as a running quarterback, but he has not been running as much lately. The Packers kept Wilson in the pocket for the most part and forced him into four interceptions.
On the other side of the ball, Seattle’s defense is down a notch, and safety Earl Thomas and cornerback Richard Sherman are nursing injuries. Is that top-ranked defense a little phony? Probably.

 

[Akillies]

Vegas casinos on Super Bowl wordingBy MATT YOUMANS
LAS VEGAS ***************


A man of few words, New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick has been stuck on a few Super Bowl wins for 10 years. In all five of his trips, the game went to the wire.
All three of the Patriots’ wins under Belichick were decided by three points. The two losses were by three and four points. His sixth trip figures to be another photo finish.
Of course, Tom Brady has been Belichick’s quarterback on each trip. Who is more important to New England’s success, Belichick or Brady? It’s one of those questions with no definitive answer — some guys say Ginger and others prefer Mary Ann — because one needs the other to stay at the top for so long.
Who will win this Super Bowl? The answer is coming Sunday night from Glendale, Ariz., and there are compelling arguments for both sides. The line reflects as much, with the Seattle Seahawks opening as favorites before the Patriots were bet to 1-point favorites.
“I’ve really got no opinion,” William Hill sports book director Nick Bogdanovich said. “But if you put a gun to my head, I would go with Seattle.”
The line at William Hill’s books opened pick’em and has not budged, though Bogdanovich said about 65 percent of the wagers have been on New England.
Last week, I looked at the Seattle argument, which is based on the defending champions being more physical and the fact the NFL’s No. 1-ranked defense almost always wins in these situations. This time last year, the Seahawks were underdogs and made a mockery of Peyton Manning in a 43-8 blowout of Denver.
The public was infatuated with Manning and the Broncos, and it turned out to be a fatal attraction. This scene is eerily similar. There is no denying it.
Two weeks ago, the Patriots pounded Indianapolis in the AFC title game after the Seahawks needed a miracle comeback to stun Green Bay in the NFC title game. Most bettors tend to overreact to what they saw most recently, and there is no denying it.
But with assistance from Bernie Fratto, an ESPN Radio host in Las Vegas, I’ll argue the Seahawks are not as strong as last year and the Patriots are not popular paper tigers resembling Manning and the Broncos.
It all starts with Brady, a far better big-game quarterback than Manning, and Belichick, a defensive genius not to be confused with John Fox.
“I’ve always felt Belichick is the gold standard when it comes to game-planning and devising a defensive scheme to pin the bear, and he’s been doing it since 1987,” said Fratto, a former Detroit Lions radio host. “Remember, Bill Parcells never won a Super Bowl without Belichick by his side. And for good reason.
“Belichick’s ability to neutralize and nullify an opponent’s strength is unparalleled. Seattle lacks the offensive depth to beat a Belichick defense, in my view.”
That’s a big key, in my opinion, too. The Seahawks’ top wide receivers — Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse — are mediocre at best. Percy Harvin and Golden Tate are long gone. Belichick can focus his defensive scheme on clogging up Marshawn Lynch’s running lanes without fearing Seattle’s impotent vertical passing attack.
There is a fear factor with Russell Wilson, who is most dangerous as a running quarterback, but he has not been running as much lately. The Packers kept Wilson in the pocket for the most part and forced him into four interceptions.
On the other side of the ball, Seattle’s defense is down a notch, and safety Earl Thomas and cornerback Richard Sherman are nursing injuries. Is that top-ranked defense a little phony? Probably.