Strong, strong strong play for Sunday NBA

[Boxslayer]

I know the Miami Heat of all teams the best. I'm focused on baseball right now.

But I love the New Jersey Nets.

I read the Miami Herald and watch the local news. The heat players do not look or sound confident. They are a team who is searching for answers. They expected to just turn it up in the playoffs, and now without Shaq they have been struggling. Shaq did not practice yesterday and will be a game time decision. Van Gundy says he might not even play Shaq the first game as precaution. Heat havn't accomplished anything yet, and they face a red hot New Jersey Nets squad playing as good as anyone and on an emotional high from making the playoffs. The Nets have nothing to lose, while the Heat have a ton of pressure on them for an unaccomplished team. Anything less than a finals appearance for the Heat is considered a disappointment. They are dominant at home, but they have to go at it without the Big Fella at 100%.

I'm taking the points now for game 1.

New Jersey +8.5 (4*)

 

[spreadbeater]

I would have to disagree with you 100% on this one. Shaq is playing, there is no chance that he does not play. He is practicing today and will play on Sunday. The Heat win this series in 5 games in my opinion. Best of luck!

 

[Boxslayer]

I don't disagree that Shaq is playing. There has been "talk" of him not playing. I personally think he is, but he will be about 90% and rusty. He even said "of course" he is playing a few days ago. But he's not going to be 100%. I never said the Nets were going to win the series. I think the Nets will steal 1 or 2 at the most. But 8.5 points is too many.

Miami is not playing well right now. New Jersey is the hottest team in the NBA. I think the Heat were disappointed to play NJ instead of the Cavs. New Jersey has playoff experience and has been to the finals recently. They are hot right now. Shaq hasn't played in awhile, the Heat need to readjust and get back into a rhythm with him on the court. I think they will come out a bit rusty in game 1.

Even though Miami has beaten NJ this year, the scores don't tell the stories of the game. New Jersey has jumped out to big leads on the Heat and the Heat made the score inflated late in the game with a comeback. I think New Jersey will be able to keep it close in some of these games. I think Miami will get there share of comfortable victories, but I'm betting that the beginning of the series is when NJ puts up a fight. I think the Heat will get back into a rhythm with Shaq out there later in the series.

My bet is that the Heat will win in 5 as well. I could see them winning in 6 too. But if NJ is going to take any games, or keep any games close, they are going to be the 1st couple, not later. That's why my bet is NJ +8.5 for game 1.

Thanks for your input. Best of luck to you as well!

 

[spreadbeater]

Box,

I do not mean to disrespect you at all as you are entitled to your opinion. However, I have watched every Heat game this year and am a season ticket holder and I know this team extremely well. However, I would have disagree with you on some points. For you to say that Shaq will be only 90% and rusty is one of the most ludicrious comments that I have seen. How do you know that he will be only 90%? Rusty? The guy missed TWO games. Please. You are talking like the guy has missed months and is just now coming back. he missed TWO games. Plus he wouldnt have played against Orlando anyway even if he was healthy.
You also said that "Miami is not playing well right now." Why would you say that? They have won 3 in a row going into the playoffs. I know that they had lost 4 in a row prior to that, however the first two of those games came without Shaq in the lineup. Prior to losing to both philly and boston, the Heat had won 20 in a row with their full starting 5. Many of the games that they had lost came without Shaq, Wade, Udonis, or Eddie. Also Christian Laettner had missed some time as well. When the Heat have their starting 5 healthy they have now won 21 of the last 23 games. So dont let some of their losses fool you.
As for the earlier games against jersey, Jersey did get out to a big lead in New jersey. However, that is what happens in games. The better team usually wins. The Heat were down DD early, but they came back. Came back and destroyed them. As for the game recently in Miami, jersey was NEVER in that game. The Heat killed them and the final score is not even a good indicator of how ugly that game was. The Heat were up by 30+ points many times in that game. And that was with Vince.
I am not trying to say that you are wrong and that Jersey will not cover tomorrow. You may be right. However, I think you need to get your facts correct. Thats it. I wish you luck and would not mind the Heat winning by 8 or less so we can both be happy. Although, I would think again before backing Jersey real strong tomorrow. The Heat are clearly the better team and they have a huge homecourt advantage. They beat Jersey all 3 times this year by an average of 21 points per game. Two of those came with vince in the lineup. Whatever you decide, I wish you nothing but good luck.

SB

 

[Boxslayer]

Without getting into a debate here, I've watched every Heat game too and I am a former Heat season ticket holder, I don't have the time to attend the games much anymore so I cancelled. I sat in section 108 for one year in row 17.

My point is just because you watch every game doesn't mean you are right. I am not saying you are particularly wrong about anything, just saying that doesn't solidify any of your statements. I've watched every single game besides one or two that I missed and I know the team very well myself. It's good that we both have opposite viewpoints on certain things about the same team. It can only help.

For you to say that Shaq will only be 90% and rusty is one of the most luducrious comments you've ever seen is pretty ludacrious in itself? The guy said in the paper two days straight that he is trying to get mentally ready and physically ready. He said "I hope I will be 95% physically ready for Sunday's game. That's all I need" He said this a few days ago when he was expecting to practice the next day. He still hasn't practiced. Is it really that ludacrious to expect him to be at 90%?
In terms of rustiness....Shaq didn't miss two games. He was also out for three with the stomach virus he had right before that. He lost 15 pounds. His 1st game back from the stomach virus he scored 13 points and had 9...count em...9 TURNOVERS alone. He averages 2 TOs a game this year and for his career. Heat lost that game too, and the next one with him in the lineup. Sounds like rust to me.
The heat offense had 17 turnovers Shaq's first game back from the stomahc virus and lost both games WITH Shaq in the lineup. Why? Because they had to adjust to playing without him in the lineup. They run the floor more and they run a smaller set. When he came BACK to the lineup was when the Heat was having problems adjusting back to the Shaq offense. If remember from watching the games, they had tons of unforced turnovers and miscommunication on passes when he posts up low and dishes out. RUSTY! It's a different offensive set they run when he's in the game. Now he's been out again. But not only has he been out, he hasn't been able to practice. So it's not like they are working off rust and gelling in practice.

The Heat winning 3 straight means nothing. These games didn't matter to them and they were'nt even giving their normal rotation their regular minutes. Meanwhile, Jersey's been out in a playoff atmosphere, playing MUST WIN games, and playing pretty damn good too might I add. NJ has won 15 of their last 19 games and 4 straight!
Miami's lost 4 of their last 7 and 7 of their last 14.

I understand how good the Heat are at home. I understand they won a certain number of games straight and were so dominant in mid-season. But that was a distant memory ago. Basketball is the #1 sport where team chemistry is involved. That's why the USA gets killed in the Olympics now. Those other countries practice together all the time, and then they throw Shaq and Iverson on a team and expect them to win every game.

Shaq has missed 5 of the passed 8 games. So maybe you should get your facts straight. You expect the Heat to just go back to blowing teams out like they havn't missed a beat? Especially the way this team's confidence is right now? You can hear it in their voices in interviews.

Meanwhile, New Jersey has just been learning how to play with Vince in the lineup. You can't expect him to be traded, hop in the lineup for the Nets, and NJ to start balling against the top team in the east. I know by how much the Heat beat the Nets in mid-season. But Vince just got on the team and they hadn't gelled yet. NJ is playing better than anyone right now.

If anything is ludicrious here it is your Miami Heat blinders you are wearing. I love the Heat just as much as the next guy down here, but I bet with my head not with my heart. I'm not going ape shht on this play. It's a 4 unit play. Not a 20 unit play. If it loses and the Heat cover, I'll be thrilled because I love the Heat. But if it wins, I got some extra money to play with. But I'd rather take my chances that the Heat come out rusty against a white hot NJ team and can't cover the 8.5. If it loses, I'll make the same play when they travel to NJ.

Please don't take this post as an argument. I think this conversation is only helping us both see each other's point. Feel free to respond again, you may enlighten me to something new. But if you choose not to, let's just agree to disagree on this particular subject, and GO HEAT.

 

[Boxslayer]

Holy sh1t that's a long post. Didn't realize. Sorry. LOL

 

[spreadbeater]

Box,

I did not intend for this to become a pissing match. I respect your opinions and viewpoints on the Heat and the NBA. Just a couple more things that I want to touch on and that will be it.
You just made a huge deal about Shaq's first game back against Philly after missing the games with the stomach virus. Yes, he may have been a little rusty in that game. I know that he had 9 turnovers and only 13 points. However in the next game, which was the very next night, he had 34 points and only 1 turnover. Does that sound like rust to you? Then in the next game against Indiana he only played 17 first half minutes before leaving with an injury, and had 11 points and only 1 turnover. Again I ask, do you call that rust?
He then missed the last two games of the season. No big deal. he wouldnt have played major minutes in either game, and most likely would not have played at all in their last game of the year against Orlando.
Also, the fact that you say the Heat's confidence is not high and that you "can hear it in their voices" is a pretty silly comment. I have heard numerous interviews over the last few days with both coaches and players. Of course they are all going to say that "We hope Shaq will be ready...." But in terms of their confidence being shaken, I think that is a far cry from the truth. Mourning has said that come Sunday "We will be on a mission". Doesnt sound like broken confidence. Also, Wade has said that he is very excited to get the playoffs started and that he knows Shaq will come ready to play.
We will see what happens tomorrow. It may be a close game and it may not. I wish you the best of luck on your bet. Let's just hope that the Heat win and for your sake they win by 8 or less.

 

[Boxslayer]

Shaq is the best player on the planet. How many games does he need to regain his 2 foot jump hook? 1 sounds good enough to me to shake off rust for the best player on the planet. But the team's rhythm gets into a funk and rusty...not just Shaq.



Amen to the rest.

Later.

 

[coconutman]

Miami will take full control over the game. Just the fact that Shaq will be present on the court will mean a lot to this team. They are making a run for the finals and tomorrows game will be an impressive one.