Strong Playoff Trend of 5 tonight..........

[Piranha]

So far in this 2006 Playoffs...........trends of 5 or greater has been winning at a rate of over 75%.

The play for tonight............

Det -3.........1st half

note: double up for the 2nd half if the 1st half doesn't come in otherwise do not play this trend.

Detriot is too strong a team to not be able to cover 1 half in 3 straight game.

 

[Piranha]

Another play I like is the 1st Qt under in the Det/Clev game. They played 5 games so far and the most they scored in the 1st Qt in this series is 42 in Game 1.

Yesterday for the Pho/Clip game I played the over in the 1st QT because all 5 games in that series has been over 54 pts in the 1st QT and the line was at 55.

Det under 44.5......1st QT.

 

[gatorhater]

so do you mean if i bet one unit on detroit in the first half and that doesnt come through bet 2 units on the 2nd half no matter the spread??

 

[Piranha]

Gator.......that's what I usually do.......but if you don't want to wager too high then play 1.5 unit.

 

[gatorhater]

no i was just making up numbers...it could of been 10 units to 20 i just wanted to make sure that was what you meant
thanks

 

[Piranha]

Easy winner in the under 44.5 1st Qt play............

 

[Piranha]

Unfortunately this is one of the rare times the trend did not come in but there is a play to look forward to in the next Detriot game.

Now the trend stands at 7 and this is only the 2nd time this playoff year that it has gone so high. With Detriot at home I will be playing them in both halves.......

 

[bluewaterdude]

Piranha,
I've been lurking here during the playoffs and your trend system interests me. Do you start tracking each qtr, half, over, under for each game until trends emerge 4, 5 or 6 games into a series? I'm not sure what the Detroit trend was and how it went to 7 when they failed to cover both halves. I have my own system but it only works well in the early rounds and would love some help if finding a way to skin the man in the later rounds.

thanks,
bwd

 

[Piranha]

Blue.......yes I've started tracking 1st and 2nd Qts comparing them to the 1st and 2nd halves to see if there is any value on the numbers and I usually go with the trend when I play the Qts. For example if I like the game under like yesterday's Clev game I found value in playing the 1st Qt under vs the whole game based on their previous games that showed me these 2 teams are slow starters.

For the halves I usually wait until 1 team covers or does not cover 5 halves in a row before it is a play for me and then start doubling up afterwards.

For the games and the totals again I wait for 5 times and then go against the trend.

In the playoffs the key numbers playing trends is either 5 or 6 times and then you have around 75% chance but this does not work for the regular season as the number is alot higher (7).

So far in the 2006 playoff year I've been up 20+ units playing this style.

 

[bluewaterdude]

So this is actually a contrary trend play. If I understand you correctly, you are betting that a trend cannot continue 6,7 or 8 games after having gone 5 straight. And I'm assuming that you count the 1st and 2nd half of one game at 2 plays and the next game would be 3rd and 4th plays. Am I getting it right?

Thanks,
BWD

 

[Piranha]

These trends should be money compare to the regular season because in the playoffs most of these trends developed playing one team and usually the odds are against them to be able to cover everything for the entire series.........unlike the regular season where teams changes everyday.

To answer your question.......Yes that pretty much sums it up.

Only in the 1st Qts do I play with the trend only because I know most of the time their is not alot of betting in the Qts vs Halves and Game.

 

[bluewaterdude]

So I guess you have to like under 44.5 1st qtr in todays game. And you are still playing Detroit 1st half. What are your percentages on the first Qtr today, when every 1st Qtr in this series (6) has gone under?

BWD

 

[canabiz]

Piranha are you gonna pound the 'Stons 1st half -4.5 today ?

 

[Piranha]

Definitely confident that Detriot will cover one of the halves because the money is heavy on the Cavs and that usually is a good sign

As for the under 1st Qt play it will be a smaller play vs the halves......only because the under is the public's play today and the over was the public's play for Game 6.

When there is a trend and public's money is on the same side I generally play smaller but if the public's money is on the opposite side of my trend play then I play bigger.

 

[bluewaterdude]

I'm sorry if I'm pounding this thread to death but your Det first half is reinforced by the fact that Cle has covered the last five games and Det is also a play for the whole game!!!! I think

Good luck,
BWD

 

[Piranha]

Bottom line is.........I will be play Det 1st half large and probably laying off everything else even though I like Det for the whole game also.

For the halves the trend is at 7 and for the game it is at 5...........I will play the trend of 7 because I have another crack at it in the 2nd half.

Generally if the 1st half does not come in their is value to play Det in the 2nd half vs the whole game

 

[bluewaterdude]

Sign me up for the 1st half, and a small parley on 1st half, under 1st qtr and Det for the game.

Lets cash,
BWD

 

[Piranha]

A couple of positive note on this play is that.........I've just read the Ace also has Det 1st half as his best bet and Slim says the money is coming in on the Cavs which matches what Sports Insight is telling me...........

Looking Good!!!

 

[canabiz]

A couple of positive note on this play is that.........I've just read the Ace also has Det 1st half as his best bet and Slim says the money is coming in on the Cavs which matches what Sports Insight is telling me...........

Looking Good!!!

Let's cash this baby bros, Carib and SB and Wager also reports heavy picks on the Cavs...wow when 4 sites mention Cavs is the public's play, time to back up the trucks!

 

[bluewaterdude]

Been using this trend thing to look at baseball totals. Pretty easy to do and alot of games that hit in the 5th, 6th 7th games. a few in the 8th and one so far this year that went nine. I just played Colorado over, on the 7th game. FYI

Have you looked at this in bseball Piranha?

BWD