Strikeforce - Melendez v. Thomson - July 27

[turbozed]

Odds are out on CRIS:

JOSH THOMPSON +340
GILBERT MELENDEZ -420

ANTHONY RUIZ +195
BOBBY SOUTHWORTH -245

LUKE STEWART +275
JOE RIGGS -345

BILLY EVANGELISTA +120
NAM PHAN -150

MIESHA TATE +225
ELAINA MAXWELL -285


** Joe Riggs is out. Drew Fickett rumored in.

Leaning towards Ruiz and maybe a little on Thomson

 

[turbozed]

Since nobody is weighing in here, I'll go ahead and post my picks

Anthony Ruiz (+195) 2 units v. Bobby Southworth

Their first fight ended in a victory for Ruiz by TKO (cut) in the 2nd round. Southworth was winning the fight up to then although it was a close fight.

Ruiz's weakness is his ground game and lack of submission defense. Fortunately, Southworth hasn't demonstrated much grappling ability and hasn't submitted anyone in a very long time.

Southworth is 38 years old, Ruiz is 30 years old. This will be a 5 round fight. If it has to go the distance, Ruiz has shown that he can do it, winning 5 of 6 decisions. Southworth has gone the distance twice and won a 5 rounder in a very, very lackluster fight where the judges just had to give it to somebody.

Ruiz just won a split decision victory over much larger Brad "Gogoplata" Imes. The longer this fight goes, the more it'll favor Ruiz here.

This fight should really be a toss-up at most. At +195, Ruiz is a great price.

Josh Thomson (+370) 1 unit vs. Gilbert Melendez

Melendez is a top 10 guy. Thomson hasn't been fighting top competition for quite a while now. However, Josh is a huge guy at LW and a strong wrestler. Melendez dropped his last fight to a much smaller albeit more persistent wrestler in Ishida.

Apparently a story on Sherdog concerning Thomson's shoulder injury has really moved the lines here towards Melendez. A few months ago when the fight was originally scheduled, Thomson was a 2-1 underdog. Now he is almost a 4-1 underdog. Gilbert should be the fave here, but not by that kind of margin.

Thomson as a longshot is a good bet.

 

[terpkeg]

Was curious about the difference in the line movement, thought i may have been mistaken b/c couldnt remember exactly what it was the first time around.

BOL to you

 

[sleung]

not the greatest card to weight in on

the only play i like is Ruiz ot beat Southworth

man i hope he kills Bobby. He is cocky and arrogrant for being average at best

shoulder or no shoulder Melendez is one of the best pound for pound fighters out there

the fight is a gimme

 

[turbozed]

not the greatest card to weight in on

the only play i like is Ruiz ot beat Southworth

man i hope he kills Bobby. He is cocky and arrogrant for being average at best

shoulder or no shoulder Melendez is one of the best pound for pound fighters out there

the fight is a gimme

I like Melendez as much as the other guy, but I don't know how one can say this considering he's only beaten one top 10 fighter in his division (in a close and questionable decision no less).

 

[turbozed]

i dun told u

+1.7u

 

[killdozer]

Nice pick with Thomson. congrats

 

[JakeT.]

Nicely done turbozed. Was on Thomson as well.

 

[sleung]

well done i would have never picked thomson

hats off to you

did u picked on the line for the odds or have a feeling on the fighter himself?

how much u bet on that fight?

 

[turbozed]

well done i would have never picked thomson

hats off to you

did u picked on the line for the odds or have a feeling on the fighter himself?

how much u bet on that fight?

It was a combination of factors actually. I think Melendez as a whole was overvalued because of that one win against Kawajiri. I remember watching the live Japanese broadcast of that, and watched it a couple times since and never scored it for Melendez. That was his only top 10 victory.

Melendez used to fight at FW and is not the biggest LW. On the other hand, I've met Thomson and I have no idea how that guy gets down to LW. He is a huge LW. After seeing Ishida soundly outwrestle Melendez and seeing Thomson absolutely control another scrappy but light LW in Nam Phan, I figured Thomson stood a good chance.

I didn't expect the odds to be so lopsided though since Thomson was about a +200 dog before Melendez's loss to Ishida. When I saw it +370 *after* the loss, I was straight up puzzled. Apparently there was a Sherdog article floating around stating that Thomson had a shoulder injury and wasn't confident about the fight. I asked my friend who trains with Thomson if he had noticed anything to that effect. He told me that Thomson goes all out in training and is a cardio machine (this was a day before the fight). Huge wrestler with great cardio seemed like a good bet already, but the overblown injury rumors further sweetened the line. I ended up betting the max (which wasn't much considering it was a low limit event).