Sticking with the best dog I have found so far...

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OMNIVOROUS FROG

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Sticking with the best dog I have found so far in the NBA Playoffs. Nothing has changed my mind, in fact most of my thoughts have been reenforced. Motown still has no bench, it reminds me of Boston many moons ago. They had the best starting 5 with The Chief, McHale, Bird, Ainge and D.J. But there bench was a complete zero. Well ML Carr did wave a mean towel. But to get to the next level, or advance they had to get some depth. They got a Walton, maybe a 50% Bill, but at least he was a help. Picked up Sichting, the one cowardly Ralph Sampson sucker punched. And that got them a title. Motown had the bench last year, and won the title. Like I keep saying, bringing in Hunter and McDyess is just not enough. Neither can play big. Motown's frontline gets little rest, while they have to fight two different guys during the game. Plus Motown is getting tired, missing shots they normally make. Worse yet, they get beat in transition defense, allowing too many easy opportunities before Motown's tough halfcourt D can set up. Role players are killing Motown. Anybody still laughing at Jeff Foster the bug? He is outproducing Ben with less minutes. Now Motown regularly has starters going heavy minutes, most 40+, including 45 last game for Ben.

I think Sheed is nicked, and is not telling anyone. I know Rip is hurt. But one key that everybody is overlooking is Indy's defense. Team defense, with great weakside rotations, and very few gimme baskets. They held Motown to under 20 six straight Q's. That is consistent, and not achieved by accident. Now Brown is forced to complain about the officiating. That is weak, especially when you get more free throws, and less personal fouls called on your team, on the road. Quit whining coach. Even some of the Pistons players admit they really respect Carlisle. He actually showed some emotion when told of Brown's officiating comments. What, you are going to call an offensive foul on Reggie Miller, at home, in crunch time against Hunter, of course not. This is Miller time. Even King David said he will miss Reggie, who leads by example, on and even more off the court. A role model for younger players. Hey, Reggie has paid his dues tenfold. He has battled the Mike's, Starks, Prince all career long. Gave us some of the best NBA memories ever. But my favorite, shutting up Spike Lee at the garden. I think the entire Garden wanted Spike's courtside seats revoked. Sit down and shut up if you are not playing. But I regressed and became historical.

Today's game is today. And right now, no matter what the linemakers or the talking heads say, I am not buying Motown is the better team. All of the hustle, work and little things that win games are the Pacers, not Motown right now. This is a rep spread, and has nothing to do with the quality of teams on the floor. So Sheed makes another guarantee. Last year it worked, but look at the team and depth last year. Plus, the Pacers are looking like they feel they are the deserving team, after all of the hardships they have overcome. Motown got the first game, with all of the advantages, they have been outplayed since then, at home and on the road. In fact, the deeper this goes, the worse for the starting five of Motown. They are wearing down. One thing I do not see, and that is Jackson and Miller going 0-12 from the arc. Another Pacers plus, the bench is starting to warm up. AJ and Fred contibuted 17 points between them, while Motown got 6 from their entire bench. I do not think this is a half of roll play, but medium or 3-4 units. Not much 5 1/2 left, but those points in a low scoring game are huge. Indy one more time..

Best Wishes...OF:howdy:
 
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OMNIVOROUS FROG

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Yes, I read it. But I leave the front page for The SHRINK. This is my backwater pond. I know you and I are on the same page. Especially after the half a roll thread. Hence to be known as pulling a BALLBREAKER. But I do think this line is historical, badly slanted. May split the action like it is supposed to, but last year's teams are not playing today. I just keep earning on this reality gap. If they get blasted today then I was wrong. But again, it looks to be a repeat performance nail biter, very low scoring game. +5 1/2 is much stronger with a total of 172. Best spot of the day IMO.

Best Wishes...OF:howdy:
 
ClipJoint

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I'll just keep hitting the moneyline's myself simply because I can't give back what they have given me at this point. I have played them on the moneyline everytime they were a dog so far in the playoffs. Needless to say, I haven't made this kind of money in quite some time. That road win in Detroit made it so I couldn't lose money on the series even if Indiana lost 4 games to 1. I am in shock that there are people willing to play Detroit on the moneyline in this spot.
 

BALLBREAKER

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Good luck boys

:lolBIG: :toast: :lolBIG:

Det by 14 today........Just my opinion:103631605
 
ClipJoint

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You throwing the other 50% of your bankroll on it?

:lolBIG:
 

OMNIVOROUS FROG

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Instead of money lines I went series price, and press up with + points, every game. At the same juncture, can't lose now. Sometimes historical trends, such as home team losing home court and winning it back in one of next two overides all present matchups. I will admit, it has been successful long term. However, if you pick the right spots, it can be beaten, because of the tremendous value presented after the system players go all in. One thing I do, I cap game by game, match by matchup, all the way down to the scrubs. Speaking of scrubs, will Darko get any minutes? Maybe Brown will stop saving ancient Elden. If he does not get bench involved today, and they lose, it shows he has zero confidence in them, which practically has been said already. Has Arroyo's stock fallen off the charts? He was their midseason aquisition like Sheed last year, but Sheed was not a DNP in the playoffs. Good talking to you...

Best Wishes...OF:howdy:
 

OMNIVOROUS FROG

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BALLBREAKER said:
:lolBIG: :toast: :lolBIG:

Det by 14 today........Just my opinion:103631605

Your opinion is rated at junk bond status. But noted.

Best Wishes...OF:howdy:
 
ClipJoint

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Those are 2 guys I can't believe haven't been playing more. Arroyo must really have holes in his game that I haven't seen. Sloan use to praise him...then stuck him at the end of the bench. The same seems to be happening with Larry Brown. I wonder what the problem is?

I can't believe Campbell hasn't seen more time. He's far from a difference maker, but he could provide solid minutes and present a different matchup than what they have been leaving out there.

I am really just playing value here today. If this were a +100 line for both sides, I might take Detroit. But I do believe Indiana is the better team and Detroit is a bad road team. To pass on +220 in this spot would be torture regardless of the outcome for me.

Good luck today...as I said in an earlier thread, I am a big fan of your posts and insight.
 

BALLBREAKER

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Lol

:lolBIG: :howdy: :lolBIG:

DET BY 14........MAYBE 16/20

GOOD LUCK :103631605

DETROIT ROCKS YOUR CITY TODAY:dancefool

MONEYLINE PLAY TODAY ON INDY:monsters-

WOW:drink:
 
SportSavant

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supersonics + 7 -114? :icon_conf

like that position?
 
SportSavant

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pistons -1.5 (first quarter) small action bet for me on the early game.....
 

OMNIVOROUS FROG

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Hey SS. No, Sonics look like dead meat here. That was their win. Most of starters nicked now, depth also gone. Superstar James gave some really nasty bulletin board material to Spurs, and remember last time they lost, they cameback and destroyed Denver. Different venue here, but Spurs always play best effort after loss, and had been shooting ft's much better before this meltdown. I would not touch the Sonics.

Best Wishes...OF:howdy:
 
ClipJoint

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I personally haven't touched the Seattle/San Antonio series and don't have much of an opinion there. Seattle is a tough team to handicap because they are/were a strictly perimeter scoring team during the season. Their game is based on making outside jump shots. Now they don't have Radmonovich who was a tough matchup on the perimeter AND Jerome James is playing like a top center. While this is good in a sense, it has totally changed the way the team plays. I can't get a feel for Seattle at all.
 

OMNIVOROUS FROG

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SportSavant said:
pistons -1.5 (first quarter) small action bet for me on the early game.....

Loser. I would not bet Motown to win any Q. Laying points in a Q. Out of the last 7 quarters, that bet loses 6 times. And badly most of them. Put down the bong dude. That is a horrible play, win or lose.

Best Wishes...OF:howdy:
 

OMNIVOROUS FROG

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Clip Joint said:
Those are 2 guys I can't believe haven't been playing more. Arroyo must really have holes in his game that I haven't seen. Sloan use to praise him...then stuck him at the end of the bench. The same seems to be happening with Larry Brown. I wonder what the problem is?

I can't believe Campbell hasn't seen more time. He's far from a difference maker, but he could provide solid minutes and present a different matchup than what they have been leaving out there.

I am really just playing value here today. If this were a +100 line for both sides, I might take Detroit. But I do believe Indiana is the better team and Detroit is a bad road team. To pass on +220 in this spot would be torture regardless of the outcome for me.

Good luck today...as I said in an earlier thread, I am a big fan of your posts and insight.

You know what kind of players Sloan wants, people that play defense, and adhere to his gameplan. Carlos would deviate all the time, a free lancer like Kobe. Sloan would pull what little hair he has left out, or feel like kicking his ass in the locker room. They dumped him midseason. Motown thought they could use some bench help, even with Hunter. Well, they also found out, from a coach very similar to Sloan, Coach Brown, that Carlos is a liability on the floor. FI alumni no defense and freelancer on offense. That is not a good style, for either of these coaches. Dumars almost looked content with one championship. Let all of the bench go, without even trying to keep them. Grabbed devalued goods from Utah. How many former Utah players went on to play well? Elden is ancient, and he was atheletically skilled. Those kind of players, unlike Reggie, are the types that their game leaves them in a hurry. Besides when your best years were playing next to Magic, why are you still in the league? Another liability. Brown is an awesome coach, but Joe let the cupboard get raided, and now it is bare. Coach knows it, and gameplans accordingly. The assistants are going nuts, like the coaching staff is on different pages. Just more bad news for Brown after Olympic debacle, which again, was not his fault, you play and coach the players you get. He is disappointed his guys are not chasing loose balls, going for more boards. Hey coach, they are getting tired, and being played against fresher, and more guys. Brown is a stubborn old guy, and he will stick with 7 undermanned rotation until he exits the playoffs. The only time his 7 are not in is garbage time. And we have seen none of that lately.

Best Wishes...OF :howdy:
 

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Of

That Quarter they won in the last 7 was the last quarter and they have led after the first quarter 2 of the 3 games and it took Pacers almost 4 minutes to score last game while the Pistons missed shots with them so I don't know how awful it is to bet Detroit to come out playing with urgency today. I didn't bet it but I can understand someone who did.
 

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I can't see Dumars being a problem here with todays caps you can't compare to 10 years ago. The only significant bench difference this year is the loss of Mike James and most playoff teams rotate 7 or 8. The Suns bench is as limited as Detroit with the Johnson injury and that didn't stop them Friday. RiP Hamilton's mobility is the biggest problem for Larry Brown.
 

OMNIVOROUS FROG

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The point is they came out of the gate like slugs. And took 3 quarters to wake up. Worse, they can't score, like I said, un 20 a quarter, six of last 7. What sense of urgency will they have in the first Q? Not only that, but you need them to win by 2. A low scoring team, on the road, who has not scored over 20 nor won 6 out of the last 7 quarters. And what is the total for the quarter? 43? Ok, Motown 22, Indy 21. You lose. This is if they play much improved from last game 1Q. A huge improvement. Stay the same, lose. Get worse, lose. I am not picking on SS here, that play is bad, and will remain bad from the current history.

Best Wishes...OF:howdy:
 
ClipJoint

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That last quarter you speak of though they were down close to 20 heading in...you can't expect Indiana to win that quarter.

--------

OF...great points. I knew that was the knock on Arroyo, my comment was just that I don't see him being that much of a liability on defense. He is no Hunter, but he could provide quality minutes against the Pacers back up PG (his name slips me right now...the fat bald one). LOL

Campbell is still a body that could be used in my opinion. Definitely not someone to rely on for big minutes, but someone to give the 2 Wallace's a few minutes of rest. He can play PF and C so I don't know why he isn't at least a little more involved in the rotation.

Darko looks absolutely lost when on the floor which is a shame. This time of year is why I can't believe Brown didn't give him more minutes during the regular season to at least give him a chance to be successful off the bench. It isn't like they have much depth as it is.

...by the way...Anthony Johnson is the PG I was talking about earlier...lol
 

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