Stewie's Gems

Search

Member
Joined
Feb 21, 2001
Messages
4,111
Tokens
3-3

+14.2 units

LARGE


USF +16


Betting, to me, is all about finding that "edge". Whether it be by obtaining inside information or by wagering on teams that you are most familiar with, the term edge varies from bettor to bettor. I have won lots of cash over the years by finding various advantages or edges in games, particularly college football. Having family members that have played in the NFL, coached in the college ranks and having done business with numerous members in the NFL and CFB I feel like I've always had the opportunity to gain the upper hand in certain circumstances in betting.

I have kept up with the USF Bulls the past couple years since I moved back to the Tampa area. Believe me when I say that this is a huge game for the players, coaches and fans in general. I keep in close contact with some of the kids on this team and I must say that these kids are treating this game as the most important game of their life. The confidence factor is definitely high as well after they posted a win in Tallahassee last year.

UF's defensive is absolutely superb, but USF has a talented group of veteran offensive lineman. USF might have one of the best centers in the nation in Genus and both tackles and guards combined for 40 starts last season.

I try not to take too much away from any particular game in the first week of the season, but, it's extremely hard to turn a blind eye to UF's offensive performance last week and in particular the center (Pouncey) to qb (Brantley) exchange. 4 bad snaps led to fumbles last week and believe me this is something that doesn't fix itself within a week. Plus, there is no excuse for a high powered offense to get less than 30 yards in 3 quarters to a team that has won only 3 games in two years.

If you look at this game as an outsider you will most certainly come to the conclusion that UF will not only win, but win big. If this game were being played on paper you would most certainly be right. Florida has the home field advantage (They haven't lost to an out of conference unranked opponent since 1988 - 50 straight) they also have the money, tradition and recruiting advantage. One thing that isn't listed on paper is the desire and tenacity of these players, coaches and fans. When Holtz was introduced as head coach at USF he was about 30 seconds into his news conference when he was interrupted by a fan that shouted "Beat Florida!" Holtz answered with "That's why I'm here."

I don't think USF will win this game, but I do believe a statement will be made by USF and the game will remain close until the end. I could be wrong, but I feel that knowing some of these kids and being familiar with this program I have an "edge" and I truly believe that this game will be close.

UF 24
USF 21
 

"Calling All The Shots"
Handicapper
Joined
Jan 25, 2005
Messages
11,479
Tokens
I'm On The Bulls aswell Stewie! Good Luck Brother!
 

Member
Joined
Feb 21, 2001
Messages
4,111
Tokens
WW- Glad to see you loving this play. Best of Luck to you my friend

TheShot- Best of luck to US!!
 

CoachLT is my Obi Wan Kenobi
Joined
Oct 13, 2006
Messages
3,343
Tokens
I think UF can lose outright today. The OL is still a mess and there are no playmakers on offense. UF will be a team to bet against all year. They might lose 3-4 games.
 

Member
Handicapper
Joined
Sep 20, 2004
Messages
6,537
Tokens
I think UF can lose outright today. The OL is still a mess and there are no playmakers on offense. UF will be a team to bet against all year. They might lose 3-4 games.

I agree about betting against UF this season, but that won't begin until AFTER they have covered this line today. Once they cover this line, it will take Vegas three weeks to catch up to an accurate line for the Gators.

I might have agreed about USF today, if it were not for the Gator's weak performance last week. Meyer will have this team ready to play and you'll see a ton of improvement by UF in week two......and THAT should be the "edge" everyone is looking for.
 

New member
Joined
Mar 9, 2007
Messages
11,764
Tokens
Once again I'm with you Stewie, I need something to help this college bankroll of mine that went in the tank in week 1! I think we have a winner here, good luck to us.

The Capt~
 

Your Bookies Worest Enemy
Handicapper
Joined
Sep 27, 2009
Messages
60,785
Tokens
Would love to see the Gators lose this one SU. I agree 110%, good luck today my friend!

XSPower :toast:
 

CoachLT is my Obi Wan Kenobi
Joined
Oct 13, 2006
Messages
3,343
Tokens
I agree about betting against UF this season, but that won't begin until AFTER they have covered this line today. Once they cover this line, it will take Vegas three weeks to catch up to an accurate line for the Gators.

I might have agreed about USF today, if it were not for the Gator's weak performance last week. Meyer will have this team ready to play and you'll see a ton of improvement by UF in week two......and THAT should be the "edge" everyone is looking for.

Nixon is out again today, there is no TE - they will have an OL dressed up as a TE, they have the RT playing LT, the RG playing RT, and a true frosh at RG that did his best matador impression last week. The only thing back to normal is Johnson is back at LG. WR is in the same shape - Moore stinks, DT is inconsistent, then you have Hines who will play multiple positions, and Rainey who is 150lbs soaking wet and has fumbling issues. If the line cant block then the running game won't do well. Debose may or may not play, but he has ZERO experience, same for Alli - though both are incredibly talented.

The biggest problem we face is our head coach. Simply he doesn't have someone on the O side of the ball to tell him "no" when he makes a bad decision - like he did when Mullen was around. When his ass puckers up he goes 3yds and a cloud of dust on people. Look at the passing game last week - they threw 3 balls longer than 15yds the entire day against the worst defense in D1 from 2009. How many screens did UF throw? 8? 9?

I'm not looking for miracles today - if they can fix the snap problems, that will help, but UF has a very real change to lose today. They will be highly dependent on the defense to set up the O for easier scores.
 

Member
Joined
Feb 21, 2001
Messages
4,111
Tokens
I agree about betting against UF this season, but that won't begin until AFTER they have covered this line today. Once they cover this line, it will take Vegas three weeks to catch up to an accurate line for the Gators.

I might have agreed about USF today, if it were not for the Gator's weak performance last week. Meyer will have this team ready to play and you'll see a ton of improvement by UF in week two......and THAT should be the "edge" everyone is looking for.

I agree with the ton of improvement part....but, that's using a little bit of common sense because there is no where to go but up. Its impossible for them to play worse than they did last week. Not saying USF will win, but I do believe they will keep this close. Good luck with your plays
 

New member
Joined
Dec 3, 2007
Messages
290
Tokens
Totally on board with you 100% LSUPete. Teams that have recruited like Florida don't go all of a sudden from going 12-1, to looking like garbage against Miami (OH), and then losing at home to USF.

This UF team is still one of the 5 most talented teams in the country and will blow USF out today. USF may not score. I'll say 27-3 Gators.
 

Member
Joined
Feb 21, 2001
Messages
4,111
Tokens
Nixon is out again today, there is no TE - they will have an OL dressed up as a TE, they have the RT playing LT, the RG playing RT, and a true frosh at RG that did his best matador impression last week. The only thing back to normal is Johnson is back at LG. WR is in the same shape - Moore stinks, DT is inconsistent, then you have Hines who will play multiple positions, and Rainey who is 150lbs soaking wet and has fumbling issues. If the line cant block then the running game won't do well. Debose may or may not play, but he has ZERO experience, same for Alli - though both are incredibly talented.

The biggest problem we face is our head coach. Simply he doesn't have someone on the O side of the ball to tell him "no" when he makes a bad decision - like he did when Mullen was around. When his ass puckers up he goes 3yds and a cloud of dust on people. Look at the passing game last week - they threw 3 balls longer than 15yds the entire day against the worst defense in D1 from 2009. How many screens did UF throw? 8? 9?

I'm not looking for miracles today - if they can fix the snap problems, that will help, but UF has a very real change to lose today. They will be highly dependent on the defense to set up the O for easier scores.

Great info right there. I appreciate your contribution. Best of Luck on your plays!
 

Member
Joined
Feb 21, 2001
Messages
4,111
Tokens
Capt-
Hopefully you were on board with the 2 XL Plays this past week, Both winners: Boise and Auburn. Best of luck to us!

XS-
Best of luck to you as well!
 

CoachLT is my Obi Wan Kenobi
Joined
Oct 13, 2006
Messages
3,343
Tokens
I forgot to mention that UF's kicker is out with a stress fracture and the punter is supposed to handle the kicking duties today.
 

Member
Joined
Sep 20, 2004
Messages
10,597
Tokens
Nixon is out again today, there is no TE - they will have an OL dressed up as a TE, they have the RT playing LT, the RG playing RT, and a true frosh at RG that did his best matador impression last week. The only thing back to normal is Johnson is back at LG. WR is in the same shape - Moore stinks, DT is inconsistent, then you have Hines who will play multiple positions, and Rainey who is 150lbs soaking wet and has fumbling issues. If the line cant block then the running game won't do well. Debose may or may not play, but he has ZERO experience, same for Alli - though both are incredibly talented
The biggest problem we face is our head coach. Simply he doesn't have someone on the O side of the ball to tell him "no" when he makes a bad decision - like he did when Mullen was around. When his ass puckers up he goes 3yds and a cloud of dust on people. Look at the passing game last week - they threw 3 balls longer than 15yds the entire day against the worst defense in D1 from 2009. How many screens did UF throw? 8? 9?

I'm not looking for miracles today - if they can fix the snap problems, that will help, but UF has a very real change to lose today. They will be highly dependent on the defense to set up the O for easier scores.


great info....thanks
 

CoachLT is my Obi Wan Kenobi
Joined
Oct 13, 2006
Messages
3,343
Tokens
Well - it appears as if Sturgis is going to kick with the fracture. He's warming up on the field now.

Will Hill and Frankie Hammond will not play today.
 

Member
Joined
Feb 21, 2001
Messages
4,111
Tokens
Major-
From what I've read, Nixon is playing although he will be backing up Gilbert at LT. Should get a lot of snaps. Practiced with contact last week
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,116,838
Messages
13,537,427
Members
100,396
Latest member
jamesdavis
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com