Steam, fading the public, squares - help?

[mizagot]

OK, very newbie-ish question here. please don't laugh. I'm serious.

I take it "Steam" is when there is a move in a certain direction - is it only a "large" move, or is it considered any move? Is it the wiseguys that cause the move (i.e. only they have enough money to move the line that much in a short time)?

What about "fading the public": the public may have a majority of the #plays on a team, but the wiseguys often has the most money, right (e.g. bigger events)?

So if the public is on a certain side, that is the "square" side, and is usually less money/volume than the wiseguy side?

Is it easy to tell when a line move is due to wiseguys vs. the public? (Guess: one is a fast move, the other is over time???)

I'm sure I'll have follow-up questions to this, but help is appreciated...

 

[CHOPTALK]

I wish you would post this in the offshore forum to get more exposure.

 

[TheGeneral+]

OK, very newbie-ish question here. please don't laugh. I'm serious.

I take it "Steam" is when there is a move in a certain direction - is it only a "large" move, or is it considered any move? Is it the wiseguys that cause the move (i.e. only they have enough money to move the line that much in a short time)?

Large moves in the lines.

What about "fading the public": the public may have a majority of the #plays on a team, but the wiseguys often has the most money, right (e.g. bigger events)?

Fading the public opinion may not make you rich, but it will not break you if you use good Money Management. ($100 per wager for example)

So if the public is on a certain side, that is the "square" side, and is usually less money/volume than the wiseguy side?

Public side is many times considered square side, but the money could be more on the public side.

Is it easy to tell when a line move is due to wiseguys vs. the public? (Guess: one is a fast move, the other is over time???)

Not easy

I'm sure I'll have follow-up questions to this, but help is appreciated...

Steam is a very questionable thing because it is very debatable as to whether follow it or not. You will find in tracking that they about average out IMO.

Good luck

 

[TheGeneral+]

I copied to another room. http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=261394


http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=229010&highlight=Steam

Here is a thread also.

 

[mizagot]

Awesome. Thanks General for the response, and for setting it up elsewhere. And great link to the "Steam" discussion. A good read for someone like me.

On a whim this past week I was following what I characterized as larger line moves in the NBA, as shown on Scores-and-Odds.

And though I know and understand that it is not a trend or else everyone would be doing it, at least for this particular week, the direction of the line seemed to come out a winner ATS much more often.

I didn't follow the timeline (in other words, I couldn't track whether most of the line move was nearer to the open or nearer to the close).

Thanks gang for helping me understand more. I've been betting online for a little while but I know I am pretty square, for the most part, in the sense that I do not have a lot of real analysis that go into my plays. Just trying to learn more about some of the ways people look at games.

 

[j-saul]

It is the opinion here at the Temple that "wise guys" are simply handicappers of the PUBLIC not sports. Seeing a game, they feel the public will go 1 way on, they grab it early at a good #, As the public $ comes in the # floats back and they own it a better price. In a world of point buying, middles, etc. , they're in a nice position to do with the ticket as they please. ie-sell it to bookmakers, middle it, and so on. They tend to be correct. The public is easier to handicap than games. Never seen the "public" fumble on the 1 or get a "T" down the stretch. Have you?

 

[mizagot]

Interesting, j-saul.

Is it also true that the public tends to lean towards the favorites, and overs on totals?

I like the idea of middling, but heck knows I could never predict which way a line is going to move.

 

[TheGeneral+]

Interesting, j-saul.

Is it also true that the public tends to lean towards the favorites, and overs on totals?

I like the idea of middling, but heck knows I could never predict which way a line is going to move.

Yes, it is fact the the general public leans to favs and overs. Middling is tough for me as well for my lack of move predictions. Also, middlers are at it daily. A shot here and there will do you no good. Some people use a certain books lean to set-up middles. For example Pinnacle may have Dallas -1 @ -113. This is a decent indicator that the game will go to 1.5, 2 or more, but it takes time and effort to learn to use such tools and really be precise in getting positive results.

 

[TheGeneral+]

Let's suppose you have $1500 bucks and you are in for the long haul and can be discipline enough to stick with good Money Mgmt. I would choose 3 books. Personaly, I would go with Pinnacle(Reduiced juice), Skybook(Free half point), and Cris(Nice rewards progy and solid). Deposit $500 into each book. Wager 1-2% of your total bank($1500 * .02 = $30) on your selections shopping for the best line(spread) you can get at these 3 books. This is a strong rule if you can have the discipline to maintain your wager amount and just want to recreational wager. As your bank increases or decreases, you can adjust your wager amount so to stay in the game longer. The longer you stay in the game, the better you will get.(Should)

 

[mizagot]

Good stuff, General. Thanks for the info.

 

[j-saul]

Miz, always like to aid a fellow tribesman. As Gen. Coveralot says, establish with 3 solid books. MIDDLE is my middle name. Using 3 browsers (n-scape,explorer, safari (free),etc.), bring all 3 up. Reduce the screen size, so you can see them all. As game time approaches, lines will move as 1 outfit may need $ on whichever side. Sounds complicated and time consuming- complicated ? not really/ time-yes. Suggest try it with $10 plays ($1 exposure) before jumping in. Shalom RX Rabbi

 

[mizagot]

Thanks for the tip.

I've always wondered, though, how frequent one could hit a middle. With the vig, you pretty much have to hit at least 10% (correct?) of your plays, but it seems like a crapshoot.

How many times are the linesmakers spot on?

 

[cd329]

J Saul,
why do you use 3 differnt browers for watching lines? your better off just using 1 browser and open up 3 windows, much faster on the system.

 

[j-saul]

CD, good question. Answer is "because I'm an idiot". It's that simple.

 

[mizagot]

:lolBIG:

 

[cd329]

Lmfaooooooo

 

[daysleeper]

Thanks for the tip.

I've always wondered, though, how frequent one could hit a middle. With the vig, you pretty much have to hit at least 10% (correct?) of your plays, but it seems like a crapshoot.

How many times are the linesmakers spot on?

You only have to hit 5% when middling. I don't middle but I do watch line movements and shop. Vegas fools around with the syndicates and the offshores a lot and sometimes you can take advantage of one or all of them. Plus, some books tilt toward dogs while others tilt toward favorites or home teams, so you can shop around for outlets, too.

Are you asking about the accuracy of the line? In the NFL, the linemakers are off by an average of 10 points, both the spread and the totals. I don't know about other leagues.