STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NFL REPORT
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 7th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** National Football League Information - Week #1 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 National Football League season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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NFL Betting News And Notes - Week #1
•Rams Work Out Free Agent Linebackers: Looking to bolster their defense, the St. Louis Rams worked out two free agent linebackers on Friday. Former Atlanta Falcons linebacker Pat Angerer's resume includes 39 starts in 54 career games. He would provide depth at the middle or weak-side position. Angerer was signed by the Atlanta Falcons in July, but released last week. Former Indianapolis Colts linebacker Kelvin Sheppard was released last weekend. He spent the entire 2013 season with the Colts, but has prior experience with the Buffalo Bills. Sheppard has started 31 games in his career. Among the Rams final cuts was rookie Michael Sam, who was signed to the Dallas Cowboys practice squad this week. Sam was a seventh-round pick in the 2014 NFL Draft out of Missouri who thrust himself into the spotlight after becoming the first NFL player to openly say he's gay.
•49ers' McDonald Expected To Play Sunday: Defensive tackle Ray McDonald will play for the San Francisco 49ers in their opener on Sunday despite his arrest a week ago for domestic violence. "As it stands now, yes," 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh said when asked whether McDonald would be in action against the Dallas Cowboys. "Two principles are woven together here. I feel like the way the facts are and what's known that he has the liberty to play in the game." McDonald practiced with the team throughout the week. No charges have been filed against McDonald. He posted $25,000 bail on Sunday afternoon. Any discipline would be handled by the team and not through the league, 49ers general manager Trent Baalke said this week. The NFL announced a new policy last week on domestic violence. Anyone found guilty of domestic violence is suspended for six games for a first offense and receives a lifetime ban for a second offense.
•New Drug Policy Could Affect Welker, Gordon Suspensions: Wes Welker and Josh Gordon are two of a handful of suspended players closely watching to see if the NFL and the players' union are able to strike a deal to modify the league's drug policy in the next 48 hours. If a new policy is agreed upon, those players' suspensions could be reduce or overturned, according to multiple reports. In a radio interview Friday, NFL Players Association executive director DeMaurice Smith said if the new policy is approved, players who have been recently suspended under the old rules should have their sanctions revised or revoked.
"If we get a deal done that covers players in this league year, I don't like that we punish players under a deal active in the old league year," Smith told 106.7 The Fan in Washington. "We don't want players to suffer because the union and the league couldn't get it done before the league year." Two sources close to the negotiations told The Washington Post that an agreement on a new drug policy probably would have to be completed before Sunday's games are played for Gordon and Welker to have their suspensions modified. Talks between the league and the union have focused on adding blood-testing for human growth hormone, as well as other changes to other aspects of the league's drug policies.
The two sides have been discussing modifying the threshold for what would constitute a positive test for marijuana, The Post reported. Gordon's suspension, according to reports, resulted from a positive test for marijuana in which one of the two urine samples taken from him was barely above the current level for a positive test; the other was below it. According to the NFL Network, the union and the league are considering a plan to modify the strict NFL threshold to match that of the military and Major League Baseball, which is more stringent than the Olympics' threshold.
Another policy change involves amphetamine tests. A positive test would no longer fall under performance-enhancing drug policy, but under substance-abuse policy. A positive test during the offseason would not necessarily result in a suspension. According to reports, Welker tested positive for amphetamines during the offseason. Another issue could affect Gordon. Sources say the league would like to immediately discipline players who are arrested for DWI, without going through due process. Gordon was charged with DWI on July 5 in North Carolina. He is scheduled to appear in court on that charge in November. Other players who might be affected by the changes include Dallas Cowboys cornerback Orlando Scandrick.
Scandrick, one of the Cowboys' top defenders, has been suspended for the first four games of the season for violating the league's performance-enhancing drug policy. He tested positive early in the preseason for amphetamines. Similar to Welker, under the new rules he possibly would avoid a suspension. Philadelphia Eagles right tackle Lane Johnson could also see a reduction of his four-game suspension. Neither the Eagles nor Johnson have said what led to the suspension. The Indianapolis Colts' Robert Mathis, who led the league with 19.5 sacks and eight forced fumbles last season, also will be watching to see if his suspension from violating the league's substance-abuse policy will be affected.
•Packers Lacy Has Concussion; Bulaga Sprains MCL: The Green Bay Packers confirmed that running back Eddie Lacy sustained a concussion during Thursday night's 36-16 season-opening loss to the Seattle Seahawks. Late Friday, Packers coach Mike McCarthy said the second-year running back had passed the first step of the NFL’s concussion protocol. Lacy, according to a league source, said he is optimistic he will be cleared to play in Green Bay's next game on Sept. 14 against the New York Jets. Earlier Friday, the Packers said starting right tackle Bryan Bulaga suffered a sprained MCL to his left knee in the second quarter. McCarthy was unsure how much, if any, time Bulaga would miss.
He injured the same knee in training camp last summer, and missed the 2013 season after ACL reconstruction. He was playing in his first game since November 2012 and was wearing a brace on the knee. Lacy, a second-year player, departed in the second half after picking up 34 yards on 12 carries. He left the locker room wearing sunglasses but could not talk to reporters per the NFL's concussion policy. Lacy on Thursday night wore a new Riddell helmet called the SpeedFlex, which the company says helps better absorb impact force by adding flexibility to certain parts of the helmet, according to ESPN.com.
Some players are wearing the helmet, especially those who previously had concussions. It will hit the general retail market Oct. 1. Bulaga was hurt when he collided with tight end Richard Rodgers after Lacy cut back for a 3-yard gain. After remaining on the turf for several minutes, Bulaga limped to the sideline and later left for the locker room. He was replaced by backup Derek Sherrod. Bulaga missed all of the 2013 season after tearing an ACL during a preseason scrimmage and had his 2012 season cut short with a hip injury. The Packers' offensive line came into the opener already missing injured starting center J.C. Tretter. Rookie Corey Linsley took Tretter's place.
•Brady, Gronkowski Listed As Questionable: New England listed quarterback Tom Brady, as well as tight end Rob Grankowski, as questionable on Friday as the Patriots prepare for Sunday's season opener at Miami. Brady said he will be "ready to go" despite a calf injury. He returned to practice on Friday, stretching and jogging in warm-ups during the open media portion of practice. "Physically I had the day off, but I got a lot of extra film in," Brady said in an interview with Westwood One Sports radio on Thursday night. "I got a lot of mental reps in and walk-throughs and such... and I'll be ready to go Sunday. "Anything can happen for anybody between now and then, but I'm looking forward to playing Sunday."
According to the NFL’s standards, a player listed as questionable has a 50-50 chance of playing. The Patriots travel to Miami to play the Dolphins. Brady's backup, rookie second-round pick Jimmy Garoppolo, took the first-team snaps Thursday. Coach Bill Belichick shed no more light on Brady's injury when asked about it Friday. "We have done what we are required to do," Belichick said. "We have listed the injury. We will continue to list it. We'll list his status based on what the requirements of the league are. "Jimmy (Garoppolo) steps in and does it. It's no different than any other position or anything we've done before there." Brady has been durable during most of his career. He has started all 16 Patriots regular-season game in 11 of the past 12 seasons. In 2008, he was hurt in Week 1 and lost for year. The Patriots also re-signed quarterback McLeod Bethel-Thompson to the practice squad Thursday.
Sharp Bettors Should Be Wary Of Mass Kicker Turnover
It’s the position you wait until the last round of your National Football League fantasy drafts to acknowledge, and the roster spot fans rarely get excited about. Their jerseys never sell, you don’t see them in commercials and if their name is mentioned, it’s usually because they’re taking the heat for a fourth quarter mishap. But dammit, kickers are people too. And as we approach the start of the 2014 NFL season, it’s important to note the key changes that have been made at the position around the league. Because you just may need one of these guys to cover a spread with a game-winner from 54 yards...
•Arizona Cardinals: Arizona parted ways with 13-year NFL veteran Jay Feely this summer to make room for rookie Chandler Catanzaro, who went 13 for 14 (92.9 percent) at Clemson last season, which included a long of 51 yards. Catanzaro converted all seven of his field goal attempts during the preseason and when you consider the fact that Feely ranked just 21st in the league in field goal accuracy last year (30/36), the Cardinals should be better off in 2014 with the rookie leading the charge.
•Denver Broncos: Matt Prater - the NFL’s most accurate kicker from a year ago (25 for 26) who earned a trip to the Pro Bowl in 2013 - is suspended for the first four games of the season for a violation of the league’s substance abuse policy. In his absence, the Broncos will trot out the professionally untested Brandon McManus, a 2012 Temple graduate who converted 60 of 83 (72.3 percent) field goal attempts in 49 career appearances for the Owls. While the Mile High elevation will help, bettors need to be cautious here, as McManus hasn’t attempted a meaningful field goal in two years.
•Detroit Lions: After a 2013 season, in which their kicker ranked an unacceptable 27th in the NFL in field goal accuracy (79.2 percent), the Lions sent longtime veteran David Akers packing and turned the keys to the car over to rookie seventh-round pick Nate Freese. Freese was a perfect 20 for 20 at Boston College last year (2 for 2 from 50-plus yards) and went 6 for 6 during his first NFL preseason with Detroit. The 24 year old is used to kicking in bad New England weather, so transitioning to Ford Field should ease his entry into the professional ranks.
•Kansas City Chiefs: Five-year veteran Ryan Succop is out after ranking 28th in the league in field goal accuracy last season (78.6 percent) and has been replaced by Brazilian rookie Cairo Santos, who went 3 for 3 during the preseason. However, it’s worth noting that Santos will now transition outdoors into the volatile Kansas City weather after spending his collegiate years kicking in a dome while playing for Tulane. Keep an eye on the rookie when the calendar flips to late October.
•Philadelphia Eagles: The Birds dumped 2011 fourth-round selection Alex Henery after watching the Nebraska product’s conversion rate decline in each of his three years in the league. A new era begins Sunday against Jacksonville with Auburn rookie Cody Parkey, who went 5 for 5 during the preseason, but just 15 for 21 (71.4 percent) last year with the Tigers. In all honesty, it’s not as if it can get much worse at the position for Philadelphia, but it is worth noting that Parkey was just 1 for 4 last year from 50-plus yards. Range could be an issue.
•Tampa Bay Buccaneers: A model of instability at the position, this season rookie Patrick Murray will become the sixth kicker to attempt a field goal for the Buccaneers in as many years. Rian Lindell lasted just one season in Tampa Bay after ranking 26th in the NFL in conversion rate in 2013 (79.3 percent). Murray went 25 for 30 at Fordham last year and was 4 for 6 from 50-plus yards, so you know he’s got the leg to drive home a long-distance game-winner, should the Buccaneers need it.
•Tennessee Titans: Nine-year veteran and 2007 Pro Bowler Rob Bironas was let go last March after ranking just 20th in the league in conversion rate last season (86.2 percent). In his place steps Kansas City castoff Ryan Succop, who was actually worse than Bironas in 2013 (78.6 percent). Time will tell if this move pays off for new head coach Ken Whisenhunt and the Titans. But it’s worth noting that, historically, Bironas has been much more reliable from downtown (50-plus).
Super Bowl Consensus Picks
Another NFL season is here and of course the question headed into 2014 is who will win the Super Bowl? We polled our stable of handicappers looking for their views on who will win the AFC and NFC titles and which team will hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy in Glendale, Arizona in early February. There were plenty of mixed opinions on who will rise to the top, but the majority of handicappers don't feel the Seahawks will repeat as champions.
A handful of StatSystems Sports handicappers give their opinion on who will win the Super Bowl, with a majority believing the New England Patriots will rise back to the top of the AFC.
New England
•Vegas Insider Ryan Taylor - The Patriots made it back to the AFC Championship game last year, but ran into a road block called the Denver Broncos. When TE Rob Gronkowski was healthy last season, the Patriots had one of the best offenses in the entire league. When he was out, the Pats weren’t close to the same team and Tom Brady wasn’t nearly as effective as a quarterback. Gronk played just 7 games last season but caught 39 balls for 592 yards and 4 TD's. Even without Gronkowski for most of the season and no 'big time' receivers on the roster the Patriots were 7th in yards per game, 3rd in points scored and 9th in yards per point scored.
The Patriots suffered some key injuries on the defensive side of the ball as linebacker Jerod Mayo was lost after the sixth week of the season due to a torn pectoral muscle. His injury came a week after the Patriots lost run stuffing DT Vince Wilfork to a torn Achilles. How important were those two players to New England's defense? Through the first five weeks last season, the Patriots had the 2nd best YPPA (yards per points against) defense in the NFL at 24.64. By season's end, New England allowed 17.66 YPPA and were 26th in the NFL in yards allowed per game. Getting those two back to go with Jamie Collins, Donta’ Hightower, Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich could make for one of the best front 7's in the AFC.
Seattle
•Expert Handicapper Jude Ravo - Normally, the idea is to just knock out the defending Super Bowl champ, as repeating in the National Football League is as tough as it gets. But I don't see the Seahawks falling prey to that curse. They have evidently lost none of their hunger, and the Seattle personnel is simply the best in the league, and by a pretty fair margin. I like the Patriots this season, well balanced, well coached and having what appears to be a cakewalk to another division title. If this is indeed the Super Bowl matchup, the Seahawks would have to be the favorite.
Green Bay
•Systems Analyst William Stillman - For years, this team was Aaron Rodgers or bust, but we saw last year they have improved the talent level enough to at least stay competitive without their Most Valuable Player-caliber quarterback. This team has never had the kind of balanced attack on offense that they will be able to attack teams with this season with they're running game, and come January that will make a world of difference. Their defense is improved enough to give their offense the chance to carry them to a title, and there is no offense we would rather count on.
New Orleans
•Systems Analyst Larry Hertner - Expect the "no-repeat" rule to be invoked again in NFC South, which has not had a repeat winner since the 2002 realignment, which is bad news for Carolina. Saints will capitalize and dominate what is a suspect division (Panthers could regress, Falcons iffy, Buccaneers also iffy). Saints improved much on defense last year under Rob Ryan, signing Jairus Byrd in free agency from Bills adds a real playmaker to the mix. Drew Brees and the offense will be potent as usual. The real reason I like the Saints in the NFC is because I think they will have the best record in conference, and home-field edge will be the determining factor in playoffs.
Indianapolis
•Systems Analyst James Vogel - While the Colts may not be the best team in the AFC, they have a great shot to earn one of the top two seeds in the AFC, leaving a favorable path to get to the Super Bowl. The three opponents in the AFC South for Indianapolis combined to go 13-35 last season and two of those teams now have new coaching staffs in what could be challenging transition seasons. While Indianapolis has been a fortunate team the past two seasons, this year’s team added even more great offensive weapons for Andrew Luck in his third season. Indianapolis is not likely to be a great defensive team overall this season but they do have a capable secondary and a legitimate pass rush and they have proven that they can keep pace with just about anyone. Denver and New England deserve to be bigger favorites in the AFC but the Colts may wind up with a better record with a favorable schedule, particularly late in the season as the Colts won’t play a winning team from 2013 in any of the final six weeks.
SUPER BOWL XLIX ODDS
•Denver Broncos 6/1
•Seattle Seahawks 6/1
•New England Patriots 8/1
•Green Bay Packers 11/1
•New Orleans Saints 11/1
•San Francisco 49ers 12/1
•Philadelphia Eagles 20/1
•Chicago Bears 26/1
•Indianapolis Colts 28/1
•Pittsburgh Steelers 28/1
•Cincinnati Bengals 30/1
Quick Hits - Monday
•Giants @ Lions-- Giants started 0-1 last three years; they’re lost three of last four road openers, with 12 of last 14 going over total. Detroit lost six of last seven games last season, one of which was 23-20 (-9) Week #16 debacle to Giants; New York’s two touchdowns were on 49-yard drive and defensive score. Lions outrushed them 148-41, still lost; that doesn’t happen a lot. Giants won last three series meetings by total of 17 points; they won last five visits to Motor City. Detroit has new coaches, Giants have new offense that struggled to gel in preseason. Lions won last three home openers, scoring 36.3 ppg; they’re 7-1-1 versus spread in last nine openers, with last four going over total. Last three years, Giants are 11-6 as road underdogs.
•Chargers @ Cardinals-- San Diego is 9-3 in last dozen series meetings, winning last three by 8-7-31 points; they won three of four visits to University of Phoenix Stadium, but haven’t been in desert since 2002, before dome opened. Chargers are 8-3-1 as road underdogs last two years; they covered three of four versus NFC in 2013, after being 0-8 previous two seasons. Chargers won four of last five Week #1 road openers; five of their last seven road openers went over total. Cardinals were 5-1-1 as favorites in Arians’ first year, after covering only five of previous 20 games when favored. Arizona won six of last seven home openers (5-2 vs. spread); they‘re 6-1-1 versus spread in Week #1 last eight years.
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Sharp Moves - Week #1
Vegas Insider Ryan Taylor
We're getting ready to head into another weekend of National Football League betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays a lot sharper than others. Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week #1 of the pro football season! Note: All public betting percentages courtesy of StatSystemsSports.net matchup index as of Friday morning.
(Rotation #466) St. Louis -3.5 – It's not often that a favored team is considered sharp, but that's what the case is here in St. Louis. The Rams remember, were considered to be one of the up and coming teams in the league this year until quarterback Sam Bradford tore his ACL. The oddsmakers adjusted from the Rams being favored by five to favored by just 3.5 in this one, and that's proof that perhaps there isn't that much of a drop off from Bradford to QB Shaun Hill in the oddsmakers' eyes. St. Louis is a lot more than just a one-man offense, and this defense is the real deal. We see no reason why the Rams shouldn't be laying more than just standard home field advantage in this game.
•Opening Line: St. Louis -5
•Current Line: St. Louis -3.5
•Public Betting Percentage: 67% on Minnesota
(Rotation #469) Jacksonville +10 – The sharpest play on the board. Most figure that head coach Chip Kelly is going to be able to keep QB Nick Foles playing at a ridiculously high rate in 2014, and we just don't know if it is going to happen. The Jaguars closed out the season on a strong note last year, and we have a feeling that they are going to be one of the better surprise teams in 2014. They aren't going to win this game, but just the fact that the spread has come down from 11.5 at the open to 10 at the present (with some 10.5 numbers still being shown up there) is proof enough to us that the "Wise Guys" agree with our assessment. This is a whole heck of a lot of points for a team to be getting in Week #1; especially with many of the belief that Philly is the surefire bet to repeat as NFC East champions.
•Opening Line: Jacksonville +11.5
•Current Line: Jacksonville +10
•Public Betting Percentage: 69% on Philadelphia
(Rotation #479) Tennessee +3.5 – The Titans and Chiefs were really nowhere near each other last year, but the oddsmakers think that these clubs are virtually even heading into 2014. It's tough to fathom that, but Tennessee should be at least a relatively average team. This is a bet though, that goes against the public perception that says Kansas City is a good squad. In fact, we don't see how this team finishes .500 this year. QB Alex Smith is the quintessential game manager, and if RB Jamaal Charles is even remotely slowed down and DE Justin Houston can't get off of the edge in a hurry, we don't see how the Chiefs are winning games on either side of the ball.
•Opening Line: Tennessee +5.5
•Current Line: Tennessee +3.5
•Public Betting Percentage: 73% on Kansas City
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Biggest Betting Mismatches Week #1
Expert Handicapper Jude Ravo
Each and every week during the National Football League's 2014-15 campaign, StatSystemsSports.net Expert Jude Ravo will break down some of the underlying mismatches on the schedule, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the card. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week #1. "Until next week, as always enjoy and the very best of luck" -Jude!
•New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (+3, Over/Under 51.5)
Saints’ Rushing Attack vs. Falcons’ Run Defense
When you think of the Saints you aren’t automatically drawn to thoughts of smashmouth football and a run-heavy playbook. However, with New Orleans working in a group of new receivers in 2014, head coach Sean Payton will look to running backs Mark Ingram, Khiry Robinson, and Pierre Thomas to tread water until Drew Brees and his new targets cook up some chemistry. Ingram has a lot of buzz around him this summer and was named the team’s Preseason Offensive MVP.
You’d think less Brees would be a good thing for the Falcons defense. And it is. But Atlanta was exposed on the ground last season, giving up 135.8 rushing yards per game – second worst in the National Football League. The Falcons’ stop unit is extremely young with five second-year players starting but did spend some money up front, trying to plug those holes against the run. New Orleans’ running-backs will put those new faces to the test early and often Sunday afternoon.
•Minnesota Vikings @ St. Louis Rams (-3, Over/Under 43)
Vikings’ New Defense vs. Rams’ Offensive Line
The Rams offensive line had one mission this season: Keep Sam Bradford healthy. They didn’t even make it out of the preseason, with Bradford suffering another ACL tear that leaves St. Louis starting backup Shaun Hill under center in Week #1. St. Louis’ pass protection is a mess. Left tackle Jake Long isn’t the same player since his own ACL injury, guard Roger Saffold has been slowed by ailments all summer, and first-round pick Greg Robinson hasn’t found his footing yet in the pros.
That iffy pass protection will be tested by the Vikings’ new-look defense under head coach Mike Zimmer, who is known for his aggressive blitz packages. Minnesota has already seen a major uptick on that side of the ball since Zimmer took over. The Vikings finished last in scoring defense in 2013, allowing 30 points per game. They gave up just 12.3 points per game in their undefeated preseason run – No. 2 in the NFL. Sure, those are only exhibition results but there’s excitement surrounding this stop unit in the Land of 10,000 Lakes.
•Buffalo Bills @ Chicago Bears (-6.5, Over/Under 47.5)
Bills’ Short Secondary vs. Bears’ Big Receivers
The Bears’ receiving corps could be mistaken for members of the Chicago Bulls. Dynamic wideout combo Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery stand 6-foot-4 and 6-foot-3 respectively. Add to those weapons tight-ends Martellus Bennett (6-foot-6) and Dante Rosario (6-foot-3), along with pass-catching running-back Matt Forte (6-foot-2, tall for a running back), and the Bears have one hell of a five-on-five hoops lineup.
Unfortunately for Buffalo, these teams aren’t playing charity pick-up on the hallowed Windy City blacktop. It’s football on Sunday. The Bills will have to look up – way up – when Chicago head coach Marc Trestman unleashes his towers of power. Buffalo’s tallest member of the secondary is corner Stephon Gilmore, who measures up at 6-foot-1. Gilmore is one of the more physical pass defenders but has been limited by a groin injury. Five-foot-10 corner Leodis McKelvin is also on the mend after undergoing hip surgery this offseason. "(Chicago’s WRs are) tall, they’re physical and they can go get the ball. It’s going to be a real good test for us corners," McKelvin told The Buffalo News.
•Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos (-7.5, Over/Under 55.5)
Colts’ Denver Domination vs. Broncos’ Kicker Conundrum
This Sunday Night Football matchup will likely play banker to most books on the first Sunday of the season, meaning there’s going to be a ton of money funneling into this primetime finale. And that loot will likely ride on the foot of Broncos seat-filler Brandon McManus, who is holding down the kicker spot with stud leg Matt Prater serving a four-game suspension. McManus has been collecting dust since booting for Temple in 2012 and could face some less than ideal kicking conditions at Mile High (chance of thunderstorms Sunday night).
The Colts have won and covered in six-straight meetings with the Broncos, including a tight 39-33 victory at home last season. Indianapolis’ defense was able to get to Peyton Manning four times in that game, forced four fumbles – recovering two – and grabbed one interception, leaving Prater to be called upon for two field goals. Colts opponents connected on just 78.79 percent of their field goal attempts in 2013 – a strange but convenient stat – and blocked a field goal for a 61-yard TD return in their win over Seattle. Indianapolis is known for nail bitters and with that half-point hook on the spread, a single missed field goal from McManus could spell doom for Denver backers.
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Need-To-Know Facts For All 32 Teams
Systems Analyst James Vogel
Everyone knows Christmas Day is December 25th, but for National Football League fans and bettors alike, it's really the first Sunday of the new football season. If you're still up in the air about your Week #1 wagers, we've got you covered here at StatSystemsSports.net. Here's a comprehensive look at the season forecast for every NFL team.
AFC East
•New England Patriots (2013: 12-4 SU, 8-8 ATS) - Is Brady’s production on the decline or was last year an aberration? The running game seemingly loses key pieces on a yearly basis, with LeGarrette Blount the most recent defector. Who can plug the hole and relieve some of the pressure on Brady? The offensive line has its share of questions that will need to be addressed before the start of the season.
•Buffalo Bills (2013: 6-10 SU, 8-8 ATS) - Change is once again in order in Buffalo, and that’s not a bad thing. Sammy Watkins should add some electricity to the offense, which head coach Doug Marrone wants to move at an even faster pace this season. The defense has a new coordinator in Jim Schwarz, and he brings a new scheme to a unit that is loaded with talent but hasn’t been able to reach its potential.
•Miami Dolphins (2013: 8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS) - Despite having key pieces in place, the Dolphins offense stunk a year ago, but should be vastly improved under the guidance of new coordinator Bill Lazor in 2014. The Fins defense helped pick up the slack and could be even better this year. That’s a scary prospect for the rest of the AFC East. If the offensive line shows even moderate improvement, the Fins will take a leap forward.
•New York Jets (2013: 8-8 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) - The secondary has a number of holes and will get picked on regularly out of the gate. Is the presence of Decker enough to strike fear in the hearts of opposing pass defenses? It’s hard to believe that Rex Ryan is still at the helm given the turmoil this team has gone through, and you have to wonder whether the clock is still ticking on his tenure in New York. In a tough division, the Jets may not have quite enough in the tool box to keep pace.
AFC North
•Cincinnati Bengals (2013: 11-5 SU, 10-5-1 ATS) - The quarterback rating for Dalton is still not great as his 88.8 rating was 15th among qualified leaders last year. He has a lot of weapons, although the loss of receiver Marvin Jones for the few three games at least will hurt. The division as whole should be tougher after Baltimore and Pittsburgh took a step back last season. The schedule is a challenge with trips to New England, Indianapolis and New Orleans and visits from Atlanta and Denver.
•Pittsburgh Steelers (2013: 8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS) - Pittsburgh has missed the playoffs each of the last two years following 8-8 seasons, so there will be plenty of motivation to turn things around. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger tossed 28 touchdowns, his most since 2007, but he also threw 14 interceptions. He should have better protection and the additions of Lance Moore and Darrius Heyward-Bey should help improve his numbers this year. The toughest road games outside of the division are at Carolina and Atlanta.
•Baltimore Ravens (2013: 8-8 SU, 7-9 ATS) - Flacco had his worse passer rating in his six-year career as he tossed a career-high 22 picks last season. While a rebound should be expected, the only addition to his receiving corps was Steve Smith, who is arguably past his prime. Like the Steelers, the defense is old and an improvement seems unlikely. The Ravens went 2-6 on the highway last year and the road slate this year is even tougher.
•Cleveland Browns (2013: 4-12 SU, 6-10 ATS) - There’s a renewed energy in Cleveland with the hiring of Mike Pettine as head coach after Rob Chudzinski was fired after just one season. Drafting Johnny Manziel was a risk that could pay off right away. The Browns defense has taken a step back in points allowed the last two years but it is still an above average unit and should improve this year. While the schedule isn't a cakewalk, it’s the easiest in the AFC North.
AFC South
•Indianapolis Colts (2013: 12-6 SU, 11-7 ATS) - Indianapolis had back-to-back fortunate years and regression has to set in soon. Seven of their wins came by single digits last season. The Colts defense was good against the bad teams, but awful against the good teams, so they need to make improvements if they want to go forward. Despite their 23 wins over the last two seasons, the Colts will likely regress in 2014.
•Houston Texans (2013: 2-14 SU, 4-12 ATS) - Houston made a terrific head coach hire in Bill O’Brien. He immediately added to his coaching staff with former colleagues that coached together in New England. The Texans have one of the best coaching staffs in the league and with a veteran roster, 2014 will be a much better season than 2013. There’s nowhere to go but up and the Texans will be much better than people think.
•Tennessee Titans (2013: 7-9 SU, 6-7-3 ATS) - The Titans come off a 7-9 SU season, but seven of their losses came by single digits. Tennessee has a new defensive coordinator in Ray Horton. He will implement a 3-4 defensive scheme and even though the Titans don’t have the right personnel for that just yet, sometimes a change is philosophy makes a unit better. There’s hope in Tennessee, but the Titans will likely be a .500 team at best this year.
•Jacksonville Jaguars (2013: 4-12 SU, 5-10-1 ATS) - If Jacksonville carries over any momentum from late last season, they could be competitive in 2014. The Jaguars went 4-4 over their last eight games with their four losses only coming by 11 points per game. Jacksonville still has a young roster but the majority of the coaching staff will be returning for their second year. Reports out of Florida have been extremely high on head coach Gus Bradley and his impact on the team. The youngsters have taken to his coaching style.
AFC West
•Denver Broncos (2013: 13-3 SU, 10-5-1 ATS) - At the age of 38, just two years after a potential career ending neck injury, Peyton Manning may be just one hit away from retirement. An injury to Manning would likely be devastating for the Broncos, who don’t have an experienced backup. Manning isn’t the only veteran that could be considered an injury risk, Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware are both coming off injuries, Ware is 32 years old and Miller has yet to play this preseason.
•Kansas City Chiefs (2013: 11-5 SU, 8-8 ATS) - The offense will depend heavily on the run, but that should be a good thing with Jamaal Charles carrying the load. Charles is a dual threat, with a dozen rushing TDs and seven TD receptions last season. He ran for 1,287 yards and added 70 catches for 693 yards in the air. Alex Smith was just one of 10 Chiefs to go to the Pro Bowl and he’s one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the league.
•San Diego Chargers (2013: 9-7 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) - The loss of offensive coordinator Ken Wisenhunt could hurt Phillip Rivers' chances of repeating his breakout performance last season. Starting running-back Ryan Mathews stayed healthy last year for the first time in his four year career, but there is no guarantee he will stay healthy again this season. A brutal schedule isn’t going to help their chances, as they face Seattle, Denver, Kansas City and Arizona before the bye week.
•Oakland Raiders (2013: 4-12 SU, 7-8-1 ATS) - It’s certainly not easy to find positives for the Raiders, but perhaps because expectations are so low, it might be possible they will be better than expected. They were certainly busy in the off-season bringing in Matt Schuab and Maurice Jones-Drew on offense, and their defense should be better with Justin Tuck, Carlos Rogers, Lamarr Woodley and first round draft pick Khalil Mack.
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NFC East
•Philadelphia Eagles (2013: 10-6 SU, 8-8 ATS) - The Eagles essentially stood pat when it comes to offseason moves on the defensive side of the football. They believe they can take a big step forward, but a look at their personnel indicates otherwise. There’s also a lot more pressure on QB Nick Foles following his breakout 2013 campaign. He certainly won’t catch opposing defenses by surprise.
•Washington Redskins (2013: 3-13 SU, 5-11 ATS) - New head coach Jay Gruden should inject some life into the Redskins, who suffered a massive letdown due to injuries last season. A healthy Robert Griffin III obviously makes all the difference in the world, as does the addition of DeSean Jackson to the receiving corps. Don’t forget Pierre Garcon quietly led the league in catches a year ago.
•Dallas Cowboys (2013: 8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS) - The window of opportunity is closing for a number of Cowboys stalwarts and that should be more than enough motivation to draw their best effort in 2014. Dallas more than held its own with an awful defense a year ago. So if it can improve even marginally in that department, it should be able to control its own destiny this season.
•New York Giants (2013: 7-9 SU, 7-9 ATS) - You never really know whether sweeping changes will pay off, especially in the short term. How will Eli Manning adapt to the new offensive philosophy? Can the offensive line hold up its end of the bargain following a miserable 2013 season? To be honest, there are more questions than answers at this point. That’s not to mention the fact that the Giants schedule is unforgiving, especially early on.
NFC North
•Green Bay Packers (2013: 8-7-1 SU, 7-9 ATS) - Defense. The Packers allowed 26.8 points per game last season, the most given up in over a decade and a repeat of that will cause issues. The return of Clay Matthews and the addition of Julius Peppers will certainly help, but will it be enough? A running game behind Rodgers is essential as well but that’s no guarantee either.
•Chicago Bears (2013: 8-8 SU, 4-11-1 ATS) - Similar to Green Bay, it comes down to the defense which allowed almost two touchdowns per game more than the previous season. But even an improved stop unit may not be enough. Keeping Cutler healthy is huge as there is no proven backup. Should he go down again, the Bears will be outside of the playoffs for the seventh time in eight years.
•Detroit Lions (2013: 7-9 SU, 6-10 ATS) - After making the playoffs just once in five years under Jim Schwartz, a change was made and Jim Caldwell was brought in. The offense will again be explosive behind Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, Reggie Bush and the return of the entire offensive line. The defense could be the best in years and a tame schedule could make Detroit a sleeper in the NFC North.
•Minnesota Vikings (2013: 5-10-1 SU, 9-7 ATS) - New head coach Mike Zimmer comes into town with a roster full of talent and Minnesota was better than last season's record shows. Four of the Vikings’ losses were by four points or less and now with low expectations, they could turn the tables on some of those winnable games. The schedule is in their favor as they play only three teams that had a winning record last season.
NFC South
•New Orleans Saints (2013: 11-5 SU, 8-8 ATS) - As long as Sean Payton and Drew Brees are working together, the Saints are a formidable team. New Orleans always possesses a strong offense, but their biggest improvement last season came on defense. Defensive coordinator Rob Ryan brought a level of toughness to the Saints, and the players responded well to his coaching. The Saints gave up just 18 points per game and if they can duplicate that success, they should have another winning season.
•Atlanta Falcons (2013: 4-12 SU, 7-9 ATS) - Atlanta is in desperate need of stabilizing their offensive and defensive lines. Both units stunk last season. The Falcons fired both position coaches, so the team must hope the new voices get things back in order. Atlanta went 0-7 SU in true road games last season, and with tough out of division opponents like the Bengals, Giants, Ravens and Packers all coming away from home, the Falcons are facing a daunting schedule in 2014.
•Carolina Panthers (2013: 12-5 SU, 9-7-1 ATS) - Question marks are aplenty in Carolina coming into 2014. The Panthers’ offense was poor in 2013, and now their offensive line is a mess and QB Cam Newton had off-season surgery. Their defense lost some key personnel, and off-field troubles have come to light. Carolina can go either way, so they are a difficult team to project without seeing what they look like on the field. But we’ll lean to a regression year for the Panthers.
•Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2013: 4-12 SU, 6-10 ATS) - It was a tale of two seasons for Tampa Bay in 2013. The Buccaneers started out 0-8 straight-up last season, but the team did not quit and they went 4-4 over their final eight games. The new head coach is Lovie Smith, and he has the respect of his players unlike Greg Schiano last season. Tampa Bay’s defense has a lot of young talent, and they have the potential to be really good this year, especially with Smith’s clever defensive schemes.
NFC West
•Seattle Seahawks (2013: 13-3 SU, 11-5 ATS) - Quarterback Russell Wilson will be in just his third season as a starter. He's shown plenty of poise in his first two years and there’s every reason to assume he'll only get better. If Percy Harvin can stay healthy or rookie Paul Richardson makes an impact, we could see the Seahawks offense make strides in 2014. No team enjoys as much of a home-field advantage as the Seahawks with their 12th man at CenturyLink Field, where they are 15-1 the last two seasons.
•San Francisco 49ers (2013: 12-4 SU, 11-5 ATS) - Injuries have taken their toll on San Francisco, which lost Kendall Hunter to a torn ACL, and LaMichael James to a dislocated elbow in training camp. That leaves the backfield in a fragile state, with an aging Frank Gore backed up by an injury-prone Marcus Lattimore and unproven rookie in Carlos Hyde. They also lost Glen Dorsey (out for the season) and Navarro Bowman, who is expected to miss at least the first half of 2014.
•Arizona Cardinals (2013: 10-6 SU, 11-5 ATS) - There’s concern in the linebacking corps as Karlos Dansby bolted to Cleveland and Daryl Washington has been suspended for the season. Along with safety Yeremiah Bell, who wasn't resigned, the team's top three tacklers from last season (270 in total) are all gone. It could be a rough year for Carson Palmer, as Seattle, San Francisco and St. Louis all have ferocious pass rushes that will make life miserable for the immobile veteran quarterback.
•St. Louis Rams (2013: 7-9 SU, 7-9 ATS) - While they look solid on the defensive end, and the running game should be strong with Zac Stacy coming off an impressive rookie campaign, there are still plenty of questions regarding this offense. The Rams averaged fewer than 200 yards passing per game and they don't exactly have a star-studded corps of receivers.
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Sunday's Week #1 Matchups
Systems Analyst Todd Smith
#463 NEW ORLEANS @ #464 ATLANTA
TV: 1:00 PM EST, FOX Sports
Line: Saints -3, Total: 51.5
The Atlanta Falcons would rather forget that the 2013 season happened and will be quick to turn the page when they host the New Orleans Saints in the season opener on Sunday afternoon. The Falcons were decimated by injuries last season and watched the offense go from one of the most prolific in the league to one of the worst. The Saints are hoping to build off a trip to the divisional round of the postseason last January and are again stacked on offense.
New Orleans had its struggles scoring on the road last season but is always better in a dome like Atlanta, where it has earned the win in six of the last eight trips. Drew Brees lost one of his main weapons when Darren Sproles departed to Philadelphia in the offseason but tight end Jimmy Graham is still around to prop up the passing game and the defense is coming off a top-five season. Only in the modern NFL can a season in which a quarterback throws for over 4,500 yards and 26 touchdowns be a disappointment, but that is exactly what Atlanta’s Matt Ryan is attempting to improve upon in 2014.
•ABOUT THE SAINTS (2013: 11-5, 2nd NFC South): New Orleans’ struggles on the road in the regular season led to the team missing out on home-field advantage in the playoffs, and the Saints ended up losing at Seattle in the divisional round after a surprising victory in Philadelphia. The big turnaround for the team came on the defensive side of the ball, where Rob Ryan rebuilt one of the worst units in the league. The defensive coordinator received a new toy in safety Jairus Byrd, who will be expected to create more turnovers for a pass defense that ranked second in the NFL in 2013.
•ABOUT THE FALCONS (2013: 4-12, 3rd NFC South): Ryan threw a career-high 17 interceptions and was sacked a career-most 44 times to go along with those 4,515 yards and 26 scores in 2013, so Atlanta gave him some protection in the form of No. 6 overall pick left tackle Jake Matthews. Ryan will also be working with a healthy Julio Jones and Roddy White after the two top targets combined to miss 14 games in 2013. The Falcons are also hoping a return to health for Steven Jackson can boost a running game that provided Ryan little support. “I've been working hard physically and mentally to prepare for this coming Sunday,” Jackson told reporters. “I feel good about it.”
•PREGAME NOTES: The Saints re-signed wide-receiver Robert Meachem on Wednesday, four days after releasing him.... Atlanta DT Corey Peters, who did not play in the preseason while recovering from an Achilles injury, is participating in practice this week.... New Orleans signed LB Junior Galette to a $41.5 million contract extension.... The Saints are 29-47 against the 1rst half line in September games since 1992, and 0-6 against the 1rst half line in road games in games played on turf over the last two seasons.
•KEY STATS
--NEW ORLEANS is 12-2 UNDER (+9.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 23.9, OPPONENT 18.6.
--ATLANTA is 16-5 against the 1rst half line (+10.5 Units) in home games in the first two weeks of the season since 1992.
The average score was ATLANTA 14.7, OPPONENT 9.5.
--ATLANTA is 13-3 OVER (+9.7 Units) the 1rst half total versus the first half line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ATLANTA 12.6, OPPONENT 13.9.
--ATLANTA is 10-2 OVER (+7.8 Units) the 1rst half total against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ATLANTA 12.8, OPPONENT 14.1.
•COACHING TRENDS
--SEAN PAYTON is 16-6 UNDER (+9.4 Units) in road games versus division opponents as the coach of NEW ORLEANS.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 23.2, OPPONENT 19.0.
--MIKE SMITH is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games in the first two weeks of the season as the coach of ATLANTA.
The average score was ATLANTA 30.7, OPPONENT 18.7.
--MIKE SMITH is 7-0 against the 1rst half line (+7.0 Units) in home games in the first two weeks of the season as the coach of ATLANTA.
The average score was ATLANTA 19.1, OPPONENT 7.7.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--ATLANTA is 26-18 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS since 1992.
--NEW ORLEANS is 24-20 straight up against ATLANTA since 1992.
--22 of 44 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--ATLANTA is 23-21 versus the first half line when playing against NEW ORLEANS since 1992.
--24 of 42 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
--Saints are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
--Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Atlanta.
--Underdog is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
--Home team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--NO is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games.
--NO is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
--Under is 5-1 in Saints last 6 versus NFC South.
--ATL is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 versus NFC.
--ATL is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
--Over is 4-1 in Falcons last 5 games in September.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 16 times, while the underdog covered the spread 11 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 21 times, while the underdog won straight up 9 times. 4 games went under the total, while 1 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 28 times, while the underdog covered first half line 28 times. *No EDGE. 10 games went under first half total, while 4 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play On - Underdogs or pick (ATLANTA) - first month of the season, after closing out last season with 6 or more losses in last 8 games, bad team from last season (25% to 40%) playing a team that had a winning record last year, in conference games.
(31-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.5%, +21.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (18-27 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 5.6
The average score in these games was: Team 21.7, Opponent 22.5 (Average point differential = -0.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 18 (40.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-7).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (67-38).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (192-147).
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#465 MINNESOTA @ #466 ST LOUIS
TV: 1:00 PM EST, FOX Sports
Line: Rams -3.5, Total: 43
Now that the Michael Sam saga is behind them, the St. Louis Rams can focus solely on football when they host the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday in the season opener for both teams. The Rams' biggest area of concern is at quarterback where $50-million man Sam Bradford is out for the season with a torn ACL and veteran backup Shaun Hill takes over. The 35-year-old Hill, who has thrown only 16 passes in the last three seasons and started 26 games in his career, will be thrown into the fire in the rough and rugged NFC West.
Hill could find a soft landing spot in the opener against a porous Vikings defense that yielded a NFL record-tying 37 touchdowns last season and will be without five-time Pro Bowl defensive end Jared Allen for the first time since 2007. Minnesota cleaned house after the season, replacing coach Leslie Frazier with Cincinnati defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer and bringing in notable offensive guru Norv Turner to call the plays and George Edwards to assist in schooling the defense. Opposing defenses again will attempt to stop Adrian Peterson and force quarterback Matt Cassel to beat them down the field.
•ABOUT THE VIKINGS (2013: 5-10-1, 4th NFC North): To capitalize on all five interior linemen returning and one of the presumably few remaining peak seasons left for the 29-year-old Peterson, the Vikings need to address a defense that yielded an NFL-worst 30 points per game and almost 400 yards per contest. Everson Griffen, a five-year veteran who has recorded 13 1/2 sacks the past two years, will take over for Allen, and the Vikings feel first-round pick Anthony Barr will be a difference-maker at linebacker. Not much weight will be placed on the Vikings' undefeated preseason, but Cassel, who is being pushed by first-round pick Teddy Bridgewater, notched a 103.3 passer rating and adapted well to Turner's scheme that requires more passes down the field than in years past.
•ABOUT THE RAMS (2013: 7-9, 4th NFC West): Almost lost in all the hoopla surrounding Sam was the injury to Bradford, who has been hurt in three of the last four years and has been just mediocre when on the field since being drafted with the first overall pick in 2010. With Hill taking the reins, St. Louis will have to rely even more heavily on a deep and talented defensive line led by end Robert Quinn, who had a franchise-record 19 sacks and seven forced fumbles in 2013. The Rams' defense led the NFC in fewest yards per carry (3.7) last campaign and were second in sacks (53) - a big reason why Sam couldn't crack this talented, deep defensive front despite three sacks in the preseason.
•PREGAME NOTES: Peterson enters the season first in team history and 27th all-time with 10,115 yards. He could move into the top 15 with another 1,500 yards this year.... Vikings TE Kyle Rudolph signed a five-year contract over the summer that makes him the fifth-highest paid at his position. He lost weight this offseason and will be featured more in Turner's offense that had Antonio Gates in San Diego.... Minnesota leads the all-time series 19-14-2 and has won three of the past four games.... The Rams are 23-41 versus the spread in September games since 1992.
•KEY STATS
--MINNESOTA is 12-4 OVER (+7.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 24.4, OPPONENT 30.0.
--ST LOUIS is 43-24 OVER (+16.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
The average score was ST LOUIS 28.0, OPPONENT 22.2.
--ST LOUIS is 21-9 OVER (+11.1 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
The average score was ST LOUIS 28.0, OPPONENT 22.2.
•COACHING TRENDS
--JEFF FISHER is 14-33 ATS (-22.3 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was FISHER 21.2, OPPONENT 20.6.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--ST LOUIS is 5-4 against the spread versus MINNESOTA since 1992.
--MINNESOTA is 5-4 straight up against ST LOUIS since 1992.
--8 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--MINNESOTA is 6-2 versus the first half line when playing against ST LOUIS since 1992.
--6 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.
--Favorite is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
--Over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in St. Louis.
•RECENT TRENDS
--MIN is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 versus NFC.
--MIN is 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games on turf.
--Over is 4-0 in MIN last 4 games in September.
--STL is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in Week #1.
--STL is 18-41-2 ATS in their last 61 games in September.
--Under is 5-0 in STL last 5 versus NFC.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 46 times, while the favorite covered the spread 42 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 52 times, while the underdog won straight up 37 times. 54 games went over the total, while 47 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 89 times, while the underdog covered first half line 85 times. *No EDGE. 83 games went under first half total, while 77 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
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#467 CLEVELAND @ #468 PITTSBURGH
TV: 1:00 PM EST, CBS Sports
Line: Steelers -6.5, Total: 41.5
Johnny Manziel is expected to be a spectator for the resumption of the NFL's most one-sided rivalry as the Pittsburgh Steelers open the season by hosting the Cleveland Browns on Sunday. The AFC North rivals have generated a lot of publicity during the offseason - much of it unwanted - but the focus for Pittsburgh is getting back to the postseason following consecutive 8-8 seasons. Playing the Browns should be a good for step for the Steelers, who have won 19 of the last 21 meetings.
Even though Ben Roethlisberger is 17-1 against Cleveland since 2004, the quarterback focus will be on the other sideline after Brian Hoyer beat out former Heisman Trophy winner Manziel for the starting job. Former Buffalo defensive coordinator Mike Pettine is the fourth coach in three years for the Browns, who will be without star receiver Josh Gordon after he was suspended one year for violating the league's substance-abuse policy. Pittsburgh also had an unwanted distraction when running backs Le'Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount were arrested on marijuana possession charges two weeks ago.
•ABOUT THE BROWNS (4-12, 4th AFC North): Hoyer appeared to solidify a revolving door at quarterback before suffering a season-ending knee injury in his third start, but he hardly distinguished himself in the preseason and will be without the mercurial Gordon, who led the league in receiving yards despite missing two games. Former Dallas wideout Miles Austin and Andrew Hawkins will start at receiver and tight end Jordan Cameron will likely be the top target for Hoyer, but the hope is that free-agent signee Ben Tate will be a major upgrade for an abysmal ground game that ranked among the league's bottom five last season. Star cornerback Joe Haden and ex-Arizona linebacker Karlos Dansby anchor a defense that surrendered a ton of points (25.4 per game) but ranked ninth in total yards (332.4).
•ABOUT THE STEELERS (8-8, tie 2nd AFC North): With Bell coming off a solid rookie campaign and sledgehammer back Blount added to the mix, it could signal a move toward the smash-mouth style that has been the hallmark of Pittsburgh's record six Super Bowl titles. Wide receiver Antonio Brown is coming off a breakout season in which he set a franchise record with 1,499 receiving yards while hauling in 110 receptions from Roethlisberger, who is on the heels of his third 4,000-yard campaign. Tight end Heath Miller is a favorite target of Roethlisberger but the team needs wideout Markus Wheaton to be a major contributor after catching only six passes as a rookie. Linebacker Ryan Shazier, a first-round pick out of Ohio State, is among four new starters for a defense that managed only 34 sacks last season.
•PREGAME NOTES: Pittsburgh has won 10 straight at home versus Cleveland.... Cameron had 16 catches for 157 yards and four touchdowns in Hoyer's two full games as a starter last season.... The Steelers won six of their final eight games last season, including a pair of double-digit victories over the Browns.... Pittsburgh is 46-24 against the spread as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
•KEY STATS
--PITTSBURGH is 10-2 UNDER (+7.8 Units) as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 20.3, OPPONENT 15.8.
--PITTSBURGH is 94-58 against the 1rst half line (+30.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points vs. the first half line since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 12.7, OPPONENT 7.6.
•COACHING TRENDS
--MIKE TOMLIN is 26-16 ATS (+8.4 Units) versus division opponents as the coach of PITTSBURGH.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 21.9, OPPONENT 14.8.
--MIKE TOMLIN is 17-7 UNDER (+9.3 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points as the coach of PITTSBURGH.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 20.6, OPPONENT 15.5.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--PITTSBURGH is 22-17 against the spread versus CLEVELAND since 1992.
--PITTSBURGH is 33-7 straight up against CLEVELAND since 1992.
--21 of 40 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--PITTSBURGH is 25-15 versus the first half line when playing against CLEVELAND since 1992.
--22 of 40 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
--Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
--Browns are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Pittsburgh.
•RECENT TRENDS
--CLE is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 versus AFC.
--CLE is 2-12-1 ATS in their last 15 games in Week #1.
--Under is 5-1 in CLE last 6 games in September.
--PIT is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 versus AFC North.
--PIT is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in Week #1.
--PIT is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 51 times, while the favorite covered the spread 38 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 73 times, while the underdog won straight up 21 times. 51 games went under the total, while 47 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 77 times, while the favorite covered first half line 76 times. *No EDGE. 105 games went under first half total, while 84 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
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#469 JACKSONVILLE @ #470 PHILADELPHIA
TV: 1:00 PM EST, CBS Sports
Line: Eagles -10, Total: 52
After a successful first season under coach Chip Kelly, the Philadelphia Eagles hope to open their 2014 campaign with a victory when they host the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. Kelly introduced his dynamic offensive schemes to the NFL a season ago and the bountiful results included a team-record 442 points, a 27-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio for Nick Foles and a franchise-high 1,607 rushing yards by LeSean McCoy. "Obviously it's year two and we have a bunch of guys that have been around us and we have been around them, so you feel like you're a little bit closer in terms of what we are trying to get accomplished," Kelly said. "But you're excited to get going here. (These games) are for real. They count."
The Jaguars have a second-year coach of their own in Gus Bradley, who guided the team to a 4-4 finish after an 0-8 start. Blake Bortles was drafted No. 3 overall to be the quarterback of the future, but for now he'll sit and watch veteran Chad Henne, who had more interceptions (14) than touchdown passes (13) a season ago. "Every game to us is a championship game," said Henne, "so I feel like Week #1 is just like Week #13 or the last game of the season. We definitely want to get off on the right start, play well and get some things accomplished."
•ABOUT THE JAGUARS (2013: 4-12, 3rd AFC South): The Jaguars play three of their first four games on the road, although they went 3-5 away from home a season ago while winning just one of their eight games at EverBank Field. Their offense likely will feature a heavy dose of Toby Gerhart, who was signed as a free agent this spring after averaging 7.9 yards per carry as Adrian Peterson's backup with the Vikings last season. In addition to Gerhart, Jacksonville also brought in several veterans on the defensive side of the ball, including linemen Red Bryant and Chris Clemons from the defending champion Seahawks and Ziggy Hood from the Steelers.
•ABOUT THE EAGLES (2013: 10-6, 1st NFC East): In terms of personnel, the Eagles' most notable change was the loss of wide receiver DeSean Jackson, who was waived by the team primarily for off-the-field reasons. Helping to make up for Jackson's absence will be Jeremy Maclin, who missed all of last season with a knee injury, and rookie second-round pick Jordan Matthews, who had an impressive training camp and preseason. The Philadelphia defense allowed no more than 22 points in 11 of its last 12 regular-season games, but the special teams had an up-and-down season and now rookie Cody Parkey takes over at kicker for the inconsistent Alex Henery.
•PREGAME NOTES: Foles led the National Football League in passer rating (119.2) in 2013 and finished with the best touchdown-to-interception ratio in league history.... Jacksonville won the first three meetings between the teams before falling to Philadelphia 28-3 back in September 2010.... The Jaguars have questions at the receiver position with Justin Blackmon suspended indefinitely, Ace Sanders suspended for four games and Cecil Shorts III and Allen Robinson both battling hamstring injuries.
•KEY STATS
--PHILADELPHIA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 22.2, OPPONENT 24.1.
--PHILADELPHIA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 17.4, OPPONENT 23.4.
--PHILADELPHIA is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) the 1rst half total as a favorite versus the 1rst half line over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 10.7, OPPONENT 8.7.
--PHILADELPHIA is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) the 1rst half total as a home favorite versus the 1rst half line over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 9.0, OPPONENT 7.6.
--PHILADELPHIA is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) the 1rst half total in a home game where the first half total is 22.5 or higher over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 9.0, OPPONENT 7.6.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--JACKSONVILLE is 3-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA since 1992.
--JACKSONVILLE is 3-1 straight up against PHILADELPHIA since 1992.
--2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--JACKSONVILLE is 3-1 versus the first half line when playing against PHILADELPHIA since 1992.
--3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
•RECENT TRENDS
--JAC is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
--JAC is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games in Week #1.
--Under is 6-1 in JAC last 7 games in September.
--PHI is 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 home games.
--PHI is 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games in September.
--Under is 6-2 in PHI last 8 home games.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 17 times, while the underdog covered the spread 10 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 22 times, while the underdog won straight up 5 times. 4 games went over the total, while 4 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 35 times, while the underdog covered first half line 25 times. *No EDGE. 6 games went under first half total, while 4 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (JACKSONVILLE) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, bad team from last season (25% to 40%) playing a team that had a winning record last year.
(24-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.8%, +18.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (13-17 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 5.9
The average score in these games was: Team 22.4, Opponent 23.2 (Average point differential = -0.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 13 (43.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (55-23).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (153-111).
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#471 OAKLAND @ #472 NY JETS
TV: 1:00 PM EST, CBS Sports
Line: Jets -5.5, Total: 40.5
The Oakland Raiders need to only gaze across the field if they're looking to entertain positive thoughts about the prospect of opening the season with a rookie starting quarterback. With second-round pick Derek Carr in the driver's seat, the Raiders face second-year signal caller Geno Smith and the host New York Jets on Sunday afternoon. Positive results have been few and far between for Oakland, which wrapped up its second straight 4-12 campaign in 2013 and hasn't enjoyed a winning season since it ventured to Super Bowl XXXVII in 2002 before falling to Tampa Bay.
While Carr was handed the keys with the Raiders, Smith (franchise rookie QB-record six rushing TDs) was granted the opportunity after an injury to incumbent Mark Sanchez in 2013 and rode a late surge to conclude an 8-8 season for New York. Smith began his string of three wins in his last four outings by throwing for one touchdown and rushing for another in a 37-27 victory over Oakland on Dec. 8. The offseason acquisitions of Denver wideout Eric Decker (career-high 87 receptions, 1,288 yards, 11 touchdowns) and Tennessee running back Chris Johnson (1,077 yards, seven TDs) could be just the jolt the Jets need to ignite their 25th-ranked offense (318.1 yards per game).
•ABOUT THE RAIDERS (2013: 4-12, 4th AFC West): Maurice Jones-Drew intends to show that there is plenty of tread on the tires after spending his career as the workhorse in Jacksonville. The 29-year-old Jones-Drew, who topped ,000 yards on three occasions, is expected to join talented but injury-plagued Darren McFadden as Oakland looks to improve upon its 12th-ranked rushing game. Carr would be wise to build a rapport with former Green Bay wideout James Jones, who attempts to regain the form of his 2012 season when he led the NFL with 14 touchdown receptions.
•ABOUT THE JETS (2013: 8-8, 2nd AFC East): While the offense is in flux, the defensive secondary has been the cause of both concern and comedy on many a New York sports talk show. Confident Dee Milliner boldly proclaimed himself the league's best cornerback, but a high-ankle sprain will likely render the second-year player a spectator on Sunday. Potential starter Dimitri Patterson was nowhere to be found for 48 hours prior to a preseason game before being cut, leaving Darrin Walls and Antonio Allen to see playing time at cornerback with veteran Antonio Cromartie now in Arizona.
•PREGAME NOTES: New York DE Muhammad Wilkerson registered a career-high 10.5 sacks to lead the team last season.... Oakland LB Khalil Mack, who was the fifth overall pick of the 2014 draft, joins a revamped unit featuring former New York Giants DE Justin Tuck and Pittsburgh LB LaMarr Woodley.... The Raiders have lost 13 straight games in the Eastern time zone.... Johnson is out to prove he can still be an elite running back after topping 1,000 yards in each of his six seasons with Tennessee.
•KEY STATS
--OAKLAND is 42-24 against the 1rst half line (+15.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 points or less versus the 1rst half line since 1992.
The average score was OAKLAND 11.0, OPPONENT 10.9.
--NY JETS are 26-13 UNDER (+11.7 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
The average score was NY JETS 20.4, OPPONENT 14.6.
--NY JETS are 6-17 against the 1rst half line (-12.7 Units) in all games where the first half total is between 18 and 21 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NY JETS 7.6, OPPONENT 11.4.
--NY JETS are 30-10 UNDER (+19.0 Units) the 1rst half total as a home favorite of 2 to 3.5 points vs. the 1rst half line since 1992.
The average score was NY JETS 10.4, OPPONENT 6.5.
•COACHING TRENDS
--REX RYAN is 38-24 OVER (+11.6 Units) against conference opponents as the coach of NY JETS.
The average score was NY JETS 21.4, OPPONENT 20.6.
--REX RYAN is 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) the 1rst half total as a home favorite of 2 to 3.5 points versus the 1rst half line as the coach of NY JETS.
The average score was NY JETS 7.3, OPPONENT 7.0.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--OAKLAND is 9-6 against the spread versus NY JETS since 1992.
--OAKLAND is 10-7 straight up against NY JETS since 1992.
--11 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--NY JETS is 8-8 versus the first half line when playing against OAKLAND since 1992.
--9 of 17 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Home team is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--OAK is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 versus AFC.
--Under is 11-5-1 in OAK last 17 versus AFC.
--Over is 5-2 in OAK last 7 games in Week #1.
--4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
--3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
--Under is 4-1 in Jets last 5 vs. AFC.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 54 times, while the favorite covered the spread 38 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 70 times, while the underdog won straight up 27 times. 45 games went over the total, while 35 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 102 times, while the favorite covered first half line 93 times. *No EDGE. 104 games went under first half total, while 90 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
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#473 CINCINNATI @ #474 BALTIMORE
TV: 1:00 PM EST, CBS Sports
Line: Ravens -1.5, Total: 43
The Baltimore Ravens look to put a disappointing 2013 behind them when they open the season Sunday with an AFC North Division matchup against the visiting Cincinnati Bengals. The Ravens dropped to a disappointing 8-8 last season after winning the Super Bowl in 2012 and, to make matters worse, star running back Ray Rice got suspended for the first two games after an ugly offseason domestic violence incident in a hotel elevator with his then-fiancee that grabbed the attention of the nation. "I hate what happened," Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh said. "What happened was wrong - flat out. "I'm proud of him for the way he's handled it, I'm disappointed in what happened, but you go forward. You go forward. And that's what we're going to do as a football team."
All eyes in Cincinnati this season will be on quarterback Andy Dalton, who signed a $115 million extension despite inconsistent play in the regular season and a postseason record of 0-3. His playoff passer rating of 56.2 (1 TD, 6 INTs) is the worst mark since Jay Fiedler posted a 40.1 rating for the Miami Dolphins in three games from 2000-01. Cincinnati will be without star defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer, who is now the head coach of the Minnesota Vikings, but tackle Geno Atkins, coming off a torn ACL last October, returns to bolster a stout defense.
•ABOUT THE BENGALS (2013: 11-5, 1st AFC North): Despite becoming the first Bengals quarterback to lead the club to the playoffs in three consecutive seasons and setting franchise records last season with 4,293 yards and 33 touchdowns, Dalton posted a passer rating under 65 on five occasions - fourth most in the NFL. Dalton will again have talented wide receiver A.J. Green as his main big-play threat, but fleet-footed running back Giovani Bernard and his 1,209 scrimmage yards (third among NFL rookies in '13) will be on the field much more since the release of BenJarvus Green-Ellis. With a defense that ranked third in yards allowed (305.5 per game) and fifth in points (19.1) while showcasing the league's leading tackler in linebacker Vontaze Burfict, the offense should get the ball plenty.
•ABOUT THE RAVENS (2013: 8-8, tie 2nd AFC North): Under new offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak, quarterback Joe Flacco will concentrate more on shorter routes than the long balls he's known for. The hope is the new approach will help a questionable offensive line protect the quarterback and take pressure off a running attack that averaged a league-worst 3.1 yards per carry last season - lowest in the NFL since San Diego averaged 3.0 yards in 2000. Baltimore's defense ranked 12th last season in both points and yards allowed but the rookie additions of linebacker C.J. Mosley and tackle Timmy Jernigan will provide help to tackle Haloti Ngata and linebackers Terrell Suggs and Daryl Smith.
•PREGAME NOTES: Since joining the National Football League in 2011, Green has 260 catches, most by any player in NFL history over his first three seasons.... Flacco has an 11-0 career home record in September, tied with Jay Schroeder for best among quarterbacks in the Super Bowl era.... Ravens wide-receiver Steve Smith departed Carolina after 13 seasons as the franchise's all-time leader with 836 receptions, 75 TDs and 12,197 yards.... The Bengals are 61-89 against the spread versus division opponents, and 61-91 ATS in the first half of the season since 1992.
•KEY STATS
--BALTIMORE is 72-36 against the 1rst half line (+32.4 Units) as a home favorite versus the 1rst half line since 1992.
The average score was BALTIMORE 12.8, OPPONENT 6.5.
--BALTIMORE is 48-22 against the 1rst half line (+23.8 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 points or less versus the 1rst half line since 1992.
The average score was BALTIMORE 11.9, OPPONENT 7.1.
•COACHING TRENDS
--MARVIN LEWIS is 26-15 OVER (+9.5 Units) in road games in the first half of the season as the coach of CINCINNATI.
The average score was CINCINNATI 22.6, OPPONENT 23.7.
--JOHN HARBAUGH is 32-10 against the 1rst half line (+21.0 Units) as a home favorite versus the 1rst half line as the coach of BALTIMORE.
The average score was BALTIMORE 13.7, OPPONENT 6.8.
--JOHN HARBAUGH is 20-4 against the 1rst half line (+15.6 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 points or less versus the 1rst half line as the coach of BALTIMORE.
The average score was BALTIMORE 12.2, OPPONENT 6.6.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--BALTIMORE is 18-17 against the spread versus CINCINNATI since 1992.
--BALTIMORE is 20-16 straight up against CINCINNATI since 1992.
--20 of 36 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--BALTIMORE is 19-17 versus the first half line when playing against CINCINNATI since 1992.
--18 of 36 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Baltimore.
--Bengals are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 meetings in Baltimore.
--Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
--Favorite is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--CIN is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week #1.
--CIN is 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
--Over is 4-0 in CIN last 4 games in Week #1.
--BAL is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 versus AFC North.
--BAL is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week #1.
--Over is 4-1 in BAL last 5 games in Week #1.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 41 times, while the favorite covered the spread 11 times. *EDGE against the spread =CINCINNATI. In past games, the underdog won the game straight up 34 times, while the favorite won the game straight up 18 times. 68 games went under the total, while 19 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 60 times, while the favorite covered first half line 38 times. *No EDGE. 90 games went under first half total, while 53 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =UNDER.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Under - Home teams against the 1rst half total (BALTIMORE) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, average team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games.
(43-17 since 1983.) (71.7%, +24.3 units. Rating = 2*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 20.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 9.6, Opponent 9.1 (Total first half points scored = 18.8)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (7-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (12-7).
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#475 BUFFALO @ #476 CHICAGO
TV: 1:00 PM ET, FOX Sports
Line: Bears -6.5, Total: 47.5
Two teams that have experienced trouble making the postseason square off Sunday afternoon when the Chicago Bears host the Buffalo Bills. Chicago has missed the playoffs in six of the last seven seasons while Buffalo hasn’t been involved in the postseason since 1999. The Bears are again relying on quarterback Jay Cutler to get them over the hump while the Bills are hoping to see improvement from second-year quarterback EJ Manuel.
Manuel was surprisingly chosen with the 16th overall pick in the 2013 NFL draft and displayed growing pains at times and promise on other occasions. Cutler has long been an enigma and was limited to 11 games last season due to groin and ankle injuries. Chicago’s offense was potent last season but the defense was easy to move the ball against and one of the club’s offseason additions to plug the leaks was defensive end Jared Allen.
•ABOUT THE BILLS (6-10, fourth-place AFC East): Running back C.J. Spiller (933 yards) will also open the season as the team’s main kickoff returner and coach Doug Marrone is on record that Spiller will receive 20-plus offensive touches per game. “I think with the right touches, yes, and where they come from,” Marrone told reporters. “Every which way you can get him the ball, (a guy) who is an explosive playmaker, yes.” Buffalo doesn’t lack for pass rushers after leading the AFC with 57 sacks last season, led by end Mario Williams (13), tackle Kyle Williams (10.5) and end Jerry Hughes (10).
•ABOUT THE BEARS (8-8, second-place NFC Central): Cutler passed for 19 touchdowns against 12 interceptions in his abbreviated season as running back Matt Forte (1,339 yards, nine rushing TDs) and receiver Brandon Marshall (100 receptions for 1,295 yards and 12 scores) were Chicago’s top offensive players. “We’ve got to make sure that we stay focused and treat every day like it’s the first day,” Cutler told reporters. “But there’s definitely a calmness, I think, in our huddle, knowing we’ve been through a lot of situations. We’ve worked together and everyone has a good feel.” Cornerback Charles Tillman is the lone NFL player since 2003 to have more than 30 interceptions and 30 forced fumbles – he has 36 of the former and 42 of the latter.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Bears are 5-0 at home against Buffalo, winning the games by a combined 135-39.... Buffalo wide-receiver Sammy Watkins, the No. 4 overall pick, is expected to play despite a rib injury.... Chicago S Chris Conte (concussion) was cleared to play on Thursday.... The Bills are 3-11 against the spread as a road underdog over the last three seasons.... Chicago improved from 29th to fifth in passing and 28th to No. 8 in total offense under Trestman, even with Josh McCown appearing in eight games and starting five due to Cutler's injuries.
•KEY STATS
--CHICAGO is 71-44 OVER (+22.6 Units) as a home favorite since 1992.
The average score was CHICAGO 23.6, OPPONENT 19.3.
--CHICAGO is 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) the 1rst half total as a favorite versus the 1rst half line over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 17.9, OPPONENT 16.8.
--CHICAGO is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 17.0, OPPONENT 19.0.
•COACHING TRENDS
--MARK TRESTMAN is 12-4 OVER (+7.6 Units) in all games as the coach of CHICAGO.
The average score was CHICAGO 27.8, OPPONENT 29.9.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--CHICAGO is 3-2 against the spread versus BUFFALO since 1992.
--CHICAGO is 4-2 straight up against BUFFALO since 1992.
--4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--CHICAGO is 4-2 versus the first half line when playing against BUFFALO since 1992.
--3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Home team is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--BUF is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games in Week #1.
--BUF is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
--Under is 11-4 in BUF last 15 games in Week #1.
--CHI is 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.
--Under is 7-3 in CHI last 10 games in Week #1.
--Over is 4-0 in CHI last 4 games in September.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 34 times, while the favorite covered the spread 28 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 46 times, while the underdog won straight up 21 times. 30 games went over the total, while 25 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 59 times, while the underdog covered first half line 45 times. *No EDGE. 41 games went over first half total, while 39 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
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#477 WASHINGTON @ #478 HOUSTON
TV: 1:00 PM EST, FOX Sports
Line: Texans -3, Total: 44.5
The Houston Texans and Washington Redskins each entered the 2013 season with playoff aspirations, but fast-forward to December and the teams combined for a woeful 5-27 record. The Texans landed the first pick in the NFL draft and the Redskins would have picked second had they not traded that choice in the prior year's deal that brought Robert Griffin III to Washington. With their dreadful 2013 campaigns firmly in the rear-view mirror, Houston hosts Washington on Sunday in a matchup of teams dreaming of a resurgent campaign.
The Texans have question marks, of course, but their pass rush should be ferocious with former Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt coming off one end and No. 1 overall pick Jadeveon Clowney charging from the other. That pressure should make for an interesting season debut for Griffin, the league's Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2012 who endured a sophomore slump a season ago. Both teams will be introducing new head coaches as well, with Jay Gruden taking over in Washington and Bill O'Brien roaming the sidelines for Houston.
•ABOUT THE REDSKINS (2013: 3-13, 4th NFC East): After tearing his ACL at the end of his rookie year, Griffin dealt with nagging injuries last season and watched his passer rating dip from 102.4 to 82.2. The passing game should be dynamic, if Griffin is healthy, with targets including Pierre Garcon (NFL-high 113 catches in 2013), newcomer DeSean Jackson (career highs of 82 catches for 1,332 yards for Philadelphia last season) and promising tight end Jordan Reed (45 catches, 499 yards as a rookie). As for the running game featuring Alfred Morris (2,888 yards, 20 TDs over his first two seasons), Griffin said, "I think that's the key to success anytime if we do what we want to do."
•ABOUT THE TEXANS (2013: 2-14, 4th AFC South): The Texans begin their season with five straight games - and seven of their first eight - against teams that missed the postseason in 2013. Houston has moved on from Matt Schaub in favor of fellow veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick, whose receiving options include seven-time Pro Bowler Andre Johnson (109 catches for 1,407 yards in 2013) and second-year wideout DeAndre Hopkins, who hauled in 52 passes for 802 yards as a rookie. Veteran Arian Foster returns in the backfield, but he is coming off back surgery and a subpar campaign in which he managed only 542 yards and one TD in eight games and did not rush for more than 23 yards on any carry.
•PREGAME NOTES: Griffin had 489 rushing yards and no touchdowns on the ground a season ago after posting 815 rushing yards and seven TDs as a rookie.... Despite Griffin's roller-coaster campaign, Garcon caught at least five balls in every game in 2013.... This game marks the return of Houston LB Brian Cushing, a former Pro Bowler who has played in a total of 12 games the last two seasons due to an ACL tear and a broken leg.... For 11 straight seasons a team has gone from worst to first in the NFC East.
•KEY STATS
--WASHINGTON is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total in the first month of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 12.9, OPPONENT 17.6.
--HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 20.5, OPPONENT 26.3.
--HOUSTON is 38-21 OVER (+14.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
The average score was HOUSTON 22.9, OPPONENT 21.7.
--HOUSTON is 0-6 against the 1rst half line (-6.6 Units) as a favorite versus the 1rst half line over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 7.8, OPPONENT 14.8.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--WASHINGTON is 2-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON since 1992.
--WASHINGTON is 2-1 straight up against HOUSTON since 1992.
--2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--WASHINGTON is 3-0 versus the first half line when playing against HOUSTON since 1992.
--3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
•RECENT TRENDS
--WAS is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week #1.
--WAS is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
--Over is 4-1 in WAS last 5 games in Week #1.
--HOU is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games.
--HOU is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in September.
--Over is 5-1 in HOU last 6 games in September.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 51 times, while the favorite covered the spread 31 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 56 times, while the underdog won straight up 30 times. 35 games went under the total, while 24 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 92 times, while the favorite covered first half line 77 times. *No EDGE. 88 games went under first half total, while 65 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
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#479 TENNESSEE @ #480 KANSAS CITY
TV: 1:00 PM EST, CBS Sports
Line: Chiefs -3, Total: 43.5
Alex Smith has a big new contract and Kansas City is banking that he will eventually lead the Chiefs to some big wins. Smith recently signed a four-year deal worth $68 million and that will only ramp up the expectations as Kansas City opens its season against the visiting Tennessee Titans on Sunday afternoon. The Chiefs started 9-0 in 2013 before declining through a 2-5 stretch and watched a 28-point third-quarter lead slip away in a 45-44 playoff loss against Indianapolis.
Tennessee hasn't been to the postseason since 2008 and is hoping the hiring of new coach Ken Whisenhunt will lead to a turnaround. Whisenhunt once guided the Arizona Cardinals to a Super Bowl appearance and his presence could also have a profound effect on injury-prone quarterback Jake Locker. The Titans have also shed themselves of running back Chris Johnson, who topped 2,000 yards rushing in 2009 before his production began to decline.
•ABOUT THE TITANS (7-9, 2nd AFC South): Locker (1,256 yards, eight touchdowns) was 4-3 as a starter in 2013 before going down with a season-ending right foot injury. Locker, who has missed 14 of 32 starts, has a solid target in wideout Kendall Wright (94 receptions, 1,079 yards) while Shonn Greene and rookie Bishop Sankey are expected to share the rushing duties. The defense is led by standout Jurrell Casey, who had 10.5 sacks last season, the second most in franchise history by a defensive tackle behind Ray Childress (13 in 1992).
•ABOUT THE CHIEFS (11-5, 2nd AFC West): Kansas City features one of the top running backs in the NFL in Jamaal Charles, who led the AFC with 1,287 rushing last season and scored 19 touchdowns (12 rushing, seven receiving). Smith is 30-9-1 as a starter since the beginning of the 2011 campaign and has thrown 53 touchdowns against 17 interceptions during that span. Linebackers Tamba Hali and Justin Houston each had 11 sacks last season and the former has 46.5 over the past four seasons, second-most in the AFC behind Robert Mathis of the Colts.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Chiefs recorded a 26-17 win at Tennessee last season as Charles rushed for 108 yards and a touchdown.... Tennessee running-back Dexter McCluster spent the past four years with Kansas City and had three punt returns for touchdowns.... Kansas City wide-receiver Dwayne Bowe is suspended for the opener after violating the league’s substance-abuse policy, while Junior Hemingway (hip), A.J. Jenkins (concussion) and Kyle Williams (shoulder) are dealing with injuries.... This is the first meeting in Kansas City since a 34-14 Chiefs victory in December 2010.
•KEY STATS
--TENNESSEE is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
The average score was TENNESSEE 20.3, OPPONENT 26.7.
--TENNESSEE is 13-3 UNDER (+9.7 Units) the 1rst half total versus the first half line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TENNESSEE 9.3, OPPONENT 9.9.
--KANSAS CITY is 26-11 UNDER (+13.9 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.
The average score was KANSAS CITY 21.7, OPPONENT 17.3.
--KANSAS CITY is 29-13 UNDER (+14.7 Units) in the first two weeks of the season since 1992.
The average score was KANSAS CITY 19.1, OPPONENT 20.0.
--KANSAS CITY is 26-13 UNDER (+11.7 Units) in home games in the first month of the season since 1992.
The average score was KANSAS CITY 22.3, OPPONENT 17.6.
--KANSAS CITY is 49-28 UNDER (+18.1 Units) the 1rst half total in September games since 1992.
The average score was KANSAS CITY 9.9, OPPONENT 9.6.
•COACHING TRENDS
--KEN WHISENHUNT is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in the first two weeks of the season in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was WHISENHUNT 21.2, OPPONENT 19.3.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--KANSAS CITY is 7-5 against the spread versus TENNESSEE since 1992.
--KANSAS CITY is 7-5 straight up against TENNESSEE since 1992.
--9 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--TENNESSEE is 7-5 versus the first half line when playing against KANSAS CITY since 1992.
--8 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
--Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
--Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--TEN is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in Week #1.
--TEN is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games in September.
--Under is 6-1 in TEN last 7 games in Week #1.
--KC is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 versus AFC.
--KC is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games.
--Over is 5-1 in KC last 6 versus AFC.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 39 times, while the favorite covered the spread 22 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 36 times, while the underdog won straight up 30 times. 45 games went over the total, while 24 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 62 times, while the favorite covered first half line 53 times. *No EDGE. 66 games went over first half total, while 49 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Under - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 (KANSAS CITY) - poor passing defense from last season - allowed 230 or more passing yards/game, against a poor passing defense from last season - allowed a completion percentage of 60% or worse.
(83-43 over the last 10 seasons.) (65.9%, +35.7 units. Rating = 2*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 22.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 10.3, Opponent 10.7 (Total first half points scored = 21)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (41-20).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (55-29).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (149-100).
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#481 NEW ENGLAND @ #482 MIAMI
TV: 1:00 PM EST, CBS Sports
Line: Patriots -3.5, Total: 46.5
The New England Patriots have taken 11 of the last 13 AFC East Division titles and the 2014 squad looks poised to make it 12 of 14. The Miami Dolphins, who host the Patriots in the season opener on Sunday, are just trying to put a rough 2013 season behind them and move forward with the focus on the field. The Dolphins were impressively competitive last season despite the locker room turmoil that surrounded Jonathan Martin and the offensive line, though it only resulted in a .500 record.
New England quarterback Tom Brady dealt with an almost entirely new corps of receivers in 2013 and still threw for 4,343 yards. Brady will have some continuity among his receivers in 2014, presumably including the return of Pro Bowl tight end Rob Gronkowski, who did not play in any of the four preseason games but declared himself ready to go for Week #1. Miami brought in new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor to speed up the offense and hopefully keep quarterback Ryan Tannehill off the turf.
•ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (2013: 12-4): New England is once again a popular pick to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl thanks to Brady’s familiarity with the receivers and a healthy defense that should benefit from the returns of nose tackle Vince Wilfork and linebacker Jerod Mayo. The defensive secondary has been an Achilles heel for the team in recent seasons, but the acquisition of Darrelle Revis gives the team its best cornerback since Ty Law and moves versatile players like Logan Ryan and Kyle Arrington into nickel and dime slots. “They do a lot of things very well,” Brady told reporters of the defense. “Very good secondary that’s tough, aggressive, jump a lot of routes. Our defense is tough to go against.”
•ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (2013: 8-8): The turmoil along the offensive line helped cause Tannehill to take a league-worst 58 sacks in 2013, but newcomers Brandon Albert and Ja’Waun James are around to beef up the tackle spots. Miami also imported running back Knowshon Moreno, who gashed the New England defense for 224 yards as a member of the Denver Broncos in a Nov. 24 meeting last season, to combine with Lamar Miller in the backfield. “I’m excited about the plan we have,” Tannehill told reporters. “I’ve said it over and over again, the guys that we have, just how we’re going to attack, not this week but the following weeks. it’s finally here.”
•PREGAME NOTES: Patriots coach Bill Belichick needs one win to become the sixth coach with 200 regular-season victories.... The Dolphins pulled out a 24-20 home victory over New England on Dec. 15 behind 312 yards and three touchdowns from Tannehill.... Brady is 17-7 with 42 touchdowns and 20 interceptions in his career against Miami.... Defensively, the Dolphins won't have lineman Dion Jordan, the No. 3 overall pick in the 2013 draft, for four games because of a PED suspension. Starting safety Reshad Jones will also miss the first four contests after failing a drug test.
•KEY STATS
--NEW ENGLAND is 45-27 ATS (+15.3 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 23.3, OPPONENT 19.0.
--NEW ENGLAND is 44-22 against the 1rst half line (+19.8 Units) as a road favorite of 3.5 points or less versus the 1rst half line since 1992.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 14.1, OPPONENT 8.8.
--NEW ENGLAND is 14-4 UNDER (+9.6 Units) the 1rst half total versus the first half line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 11.2, OPPONENT 9.4.
--NEW ENGLAND is 10-2 UNDER (+7.8 Units) the 1rst half total in all games where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 11.2, OPPONENT 7.4.
--MIAMI is 16-5 UNDER (+10.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 18.8, OPPONENT 19.3.
--MIAMI is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 16.3, OPPONENT 18.7.
•COACHING TRENDS
--BILL BELICHICK is 108-75 ATS (+25.5 Units) against conference opponents as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 26.8, OPPONENT 19.2.
--BILL BELICHICK is 37-15 against the 1rst half line (+20.5 Units) as a road favorite of 3.5 points or less versus the 1rst half line as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 14.9, OPPONENT 8.6.
--BILL BELICHICK is 72-42 against the 1rst half line (+25.8 Units) versus the 1rst half line in road games as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 13.4, OPPONENT 9.5.
--BILL BELICHICK is 12-3 against the 1rst half line (+8.7 Units) in road games in the first two weeks of the season as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 12.1, OPPONENT 7.7.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--NEW ENGLAND is 23-20 against the spread versus MIAMI since 1992.
--NEW ENGLAND is 25-20 straight up against MIAMI since 1992.
--23 of 44 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--NEW ENGLAND is 23-22 versus the first half line when playing against MIAMI since 1992.
--23 of 44 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
--Favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
--Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--NE is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games.
--NE is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
--Over is 12-5 in NE last 17 games in Week #1.
--MIA is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
--MIA is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
--Under is 6-1 in MIA last 7 games in Week #1.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 46 times, while the favorite covered the spread 39 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 50 times, while the underdog won straight up 37 times. 40 games went over the total, while 24 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 66 times, while the favorite covered first half line 61 times. *No EDGE. 56 games went over first half total, while 41 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 (MIAMI) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, average team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games.
(43-17 since 1983.) (71.7%, +24.3 units. Rating = 2*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 20.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 9.6, Opponent 9.1 (Total first half points scored = 18.8)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (7-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (12-7).
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#483 CAROLINA @ #484 TAMPA BAY
TV: 4:25 PM EST, FOX Sports
Line: Buccaneers -3, Total: 37.5
Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers will be hard-pressed to defend their NFC South title - and they get an early test from a division rival when they visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday afternoon. Carolina underwent a major roster overhaul on offense but the most pressing issue is the health of Newton, who is dealing with a hairline rib fracture and is listed as questionable. "I'm being optimistic about this whole thing and I have no other choice but to think that way," said Newton, who practiced fully Friday.
Changes also abound for the Buccaneers, who fired Greg Schiano following last season's dismal 4-12 record and brought in Lovie Smith after he was canned by the Chicago Bears despite a 10-6 campaign. Journeyman Josh McCown, who thrived as an injury replacement for Jay Cutler with the Bears last season, was signed in the offseason to take the reins at starting quarterback. Carolina ripped off 11 wins in its last 12 games last season and manhandled the Buccaneers twice by margins of 18 and 21 points.
•ABOUT THE PANTHERS (2013: 12-4, 1st NFC South): Newton, who did not throw a pass during the portion open to the media on Thursday, underwent offseason ankle surgery and also saw the departure of his top four wide receivers - including longtime standout Steve Smith. Newton has rushed for 28 touchdowns and 2,032 yards - the most by any QB in his first three seasons - but may be hindered in the running game by his injury. First-round draft pick Kelvin Benjamin and tight end Greg Olsen are Newton's top targets while the tandem of D'Angelo Williams and often-injured Jonathan Stewart pace the ground game. Carolina's defense ranked second in points (15.1) and yards (301.3) allowed while leading the league with 60 sacks, but defensive end Greg Hardy faces a midseason court date set for Nov. 17 - during the team's bye week for domestic violence charges.
•ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (2013: 4-12, tie 3rd NFC South): Tampa Bay's quickly went into a spiral a year ago with the benching and subsequent trade of starting quarterback Josh Freeman and a season-ending injury to running back Doug Martin. McCown posted a career-best passer rating (109.0) and has a trio of 6-foot-5 jumbo targets led by Vincent Jackson, who had a career-high 78 catches for 1,224 yards last season. The Buccaneers used their first two draft picks on wideout Mike Evans and tight end tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins and hope Martin can reprise his rookie campaign of 2012, when he rushed for 1,454 yards and 11 TDs. The defense features a pair of studs in Pro Bowl tackle Gerald McCoy (9.5 sacks) and linebacker Lavonte David, the only player in the league last season with more than 100 tackles, five sacks and five interceptions.
•PREGAME NOTES: Newton is 4-2 against Tampa Bay, accounting for 14 totals touchdowns in the wins while being held to one score in each of the two defeats.... Martin rushed for 233 yards in two games against Carolina in 2012.... Panthers LB Luke Kuechly was named the 2013 Defensive Player of the Year after amassing 156 tackles.... Losing Hardy, who led the Panthers with 15 sacks last season, would be a blow to the defense, but Carolina has some depth on the line. Second-year tackles Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short were solid on the interior as rookies in 2013, while end Charles Johnson is coming off an 11-sack season.
•KEY STATS
--CAROLINA is 82-54 UNDER (+22.6 Units) in the first half of the season since 1992.
The average score was CAROLINA 18.9, OPPONENT 20.2.
--CAROLINA is 71-43 against the 1rst half line (+23.7 Units) as a road underdog versus the 1rst half line since 1992.
The average score was CAROLINA 10.2, OPPONENT 10.9.
--CAROLINA is 23-8 against the 1rst half line (+14.2 Units) in road games in September games since 1992.
The average score was CAROLINA 9.9, OPPONENT 8.5.
--CAROLINA is 7-0 against the 1rst half line (+7.0 Units) in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CAROLINA 11.7, OPPONENT 3.3.
--TAMPA BAY is 32-11 UNDER (+19.9 Units) in the first two weeks of the season since 1992.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 16.6, OPPONENT 16.3.
--TAMPA BAY is 13-3 OVER (+9.7 Units) the 1rst half total versus the first half line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 12.8, OPPONENT 12.8.
--TAMPA BAY is 10-2 OVER (+7.8 Units) the 1rst half total against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 12.4, OPPONENT 13.8.
•COACHING TRENDS
--RON RIVERA is 10-2 OVER (+7.8 Units) the 1rst half total in all games where the first half total is between 18 and 21 as the coach of CAROLINA.
The average score was CAROLINA 13.4, OPPONENT 10.4.
--RON RIVERA is 14-4 OVER (+9.6 Units) the 1rst half total versus division opponents as the coach of CAROLINA.
The average score was CAROLINA 14.3, OPPONENT 12.0.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--CAROLINA is 17-10 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY since 1992.
--CAROLINA is 16-11 straight up against TAMPA BAY since 1992.
--15 of 27 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--CAROLINA is 18-9 versus the first half line when playing against TAMPA BAY since 1992.
--14 of 27 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
--Favorite is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
--Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Tampa Bay.
•RECENT TRENDS
--CAR is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 versus NFC.
--CAR is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 versus NFC South.
--Under is 7-0 in CAR last 7 versus NFC.
--TB is 13-29-1 ATS in their last 43 home games.
--TB is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
--Under is 4-0 in TB last 4 games in September.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 37 times, while the favorite covered the spread 26 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 37 times, while the underdog won straight up 29 times. 60 games went under the total, while 59 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 81 times, while the favorite covered first half line 55 times. *No EDGE. 106 games went under first half total, while 97 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
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#485 SAN FRANCISCO @ #486 DALLAS
TV: 4:25 PM EST, FOX Sports
Line: 49ers -4, Total: 41
Although their offense slumbered through much of the preseason, Colin Kaepernick expects the San Francisco 49ers to wake up just in time when they open the 2014 season against the host Dallas Cowboys on Sunday afternoon. The electric Kaepernick guided the 49ers to three consecutive NFC championship games - and was a tipped pass by Seattle's Richard Sherman removed from a second Super Bowl appearance in that stretch. Kaepernick looks to utilize both his rocket-launcher arm and gazelle-like legs as he tries to exploit a defense that yielded a league-worst 415.3 yards per contest in 2013.
San Francisco's bread and butter remains its ground game, and veteran Frank Gore continued to buck the running backs' version of Father Time by recording his franchise-best seventh 1,000-yard season last season. The 31-year-old could see sizable holes left by Dallas' offseason departures of DeMarcus Ware (Denver) and Jason Hatcher (Washington) as well as the absence of All-Pro linebacker Sean Lee (season-ending ACL injury). The glaring spotlight aside, the Cowboys have been the definition of mediocre with successive 8-8 records in each of the last three seasons.
•ABOUT THE 49ERS (2013: 12-4, 2nd NFC West): While Dallas has its own issues on defense, San Francisco will be without Aldon Smith as he serves a nine-game suspension for violations of the league's substance-abuse and personal-conduct policies. Defensive tackle Ray McDonald's availability is in jeopardy after he was arrested over an alleged domestic-violence incident last Sunday, but coach Jim Harbaugh stressed that due process needed to be heeded before any potential discipline takes place. As for positives, Pro Bowl linebackers Ahmad Brooks (career-best 8.5 sacks) and Patrick Willis (104 tackles) are more than capable of picking up the slack.
•ABOUT THE COWBOYS (2013: 8-8, 2nd NFC East): The much-maligned Tony Romo quieted (some?) critics by tossing 31 touchdown passes for the second time in three seasons, and the veteran doesn't see any cause for alarm following offseason back surgery. Injuries are nothing new for Romo, who overcame a broken rib against San Francisco in 2011 to throw for 345 yards and two touchdowns in Dallas' 27-24 overtime victory. Trusted target Dez Bryant (93 catches, 13 TDs) has seen his reception and touchdown totals increase in each of his four seasons in the league.
•PREGAME NOTES: San Francisco wide-receiver Michael Crabtree is nursing a calf injury after being sidelined for over two weeks with a hamstring ailment.... Dallas Pro Bowl RB DeMarco Murray rushed for a career-best 1,121 yards last season and accumulated 10 total touchdowns (nine rushing, one receiving).... The 49ers bolstered their receiving ranks in May by acquiring three-time 1,000-yard wide-receiver Stevie Johnson from Buffalo for a conditional 2015 fourth-round pick.
•KEY STATS
--SAN FRANCISCO is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as a road favorite of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 27.5, OPPONENT 13.6.
--SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 against the 1rst half line (+6.0 Units) as a road favorite versus the 1rst half line over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 14.0, OPPONENT 6.0.
--SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 against the 1rst half line (+6.0 Units) as a road favorite of 3.5 points or less versus the 1rst half line over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 14.0, OPPONENT 6.0.
--SAN FRANCISCO is 2-11 against the 1rst half line (-10.1 Units) in a road game where the first half total is 25 or higher since 1992.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 10.5, OPPONENT 16.3.
--SAN FRANCISCO is 13-3 UNDER (+9.7 Units) the 1rst half total in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 12.9, OPPONENT 6.1.
•COACHING TRENDS
--JIM HARBAUGH is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of SAN FRANCISCO.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 25.1, OPPONENT 14.0.
--JIM HARBAUGH is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in the first half of the season as the coach of SAN FRANCISCO.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 25.8, OPPONENT 15.4.
--JIM HARBAUGH is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) in the first two weeks of the season as the coach of SAN FRANCISCO.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 25.2, OPPONENT 23.7.
--JASON GARRETT is 16-26 ATS (-12.6 Units) against conference opponents as the coach of DALLAS.
The average score was DALLAS 24.7, OPPONENT 24.6.
--JASON GARRETT is 15-6 UNDER (+8.4 Units) the 1rst half total in the first half of the season as the coach of DALLAS.
The average score was DALLAS 10.7, OPPONENT 10.4.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--DALLAS is 6-6 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO since 1992.
--DALLAS is 8-6 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO since 1992.
--10 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--SAN FRANCISCO is 8-6 versus the first half line when playing against DALLAS since 1992.
--10 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings.
--Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Dallas.
--Underdog is 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
--Home team is 3-0-2 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--SF is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games.
--SF is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week #1.
--Over is 3-0-1 in SF last 4 games in Week #1.
--DAL is 6-13 ATS in their last 19 home games.
--DAL is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in Week #1.
--Over is 8-3 in DAL last 11 games in Week #1.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 41 times, while the underdog covered the spread 29 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 47 times, while the underdog won straight up 26 times. 12 games went under the total, while 10 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 75 times, while the underdog covered first half line 55 times. *No EDGE. 18 games went under first half total, while 6 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =UNDER.
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#487 INDIANAPOLIS @ #488 DENVER
TV: 8:30 PM EST, NBC
Line: Broncos -7.5, Total: 55.5
One of the main reasons Peyton Manning wound up in Denver will be on the opposing sideline when the Broncos kick off their season with a prime-time matchup against Andrew Luck and the visiting Indianapolis Colts on Sunday Night Football. Manning has restored the luster to Denver after he was released in 2012 following neck surgery that caused him to miss the previous season. The league's only five-time MVP led the Broncos to consecutive 13-3 campaigns and a Super Bowl berth last season.
Luck has lived up to his billing as the No. 1 overall pick, guiding Indianapolis to back-to-back 11-win seasons and a pair of postseason appearances, but he dismisses talk of being mentioned as a worthy successor to Manning. "To be honest, even since Day 1 here, it hasn't been an issue. I never came in saying, 'Oh, I have to replace a legend, one of the greatest of all-time,'" Luck said. Colts owner Jim Irsay, who made the decision to jettison Manning in order to draft Luck, will not be in attendance as he serves the first contest of a six-game suspension for violating the league's personal-conduct policy.
•ABOUT THE COLTS (2013: 11-5, 1st AFC South): Luck has tossed 23 scoring passes in each of his first two years and added to his burgeoning legend as the master of the comeback by rallying Indianapolis from 28 points down in a playoff victory over Kansas City last season. He will have a potent receiving corps with the signing of Hakeem Nicks and the return from injury of veteran Reggie Wayne to join T.Y. Hilton, who blossomed last season with 82 catches for 1,083 yards. The Colts made a bold move last season by trading a No. 1 draft pick for running back Trent Richardson, but he flamed out and averaged only 2.9 yards per carry. Indy's defense will face an added burden against Manning due to the absence of linebacker Robert Mathis, who is serving a four-game suspension after leading the league with 19.5 sacks last season.
•ABOUT THE BRONCOS (2013: 13-3, 1st AFC West): Denver was a juggernaut last season, becoming the first team in league history to feature five players with at least 10 touchdowns and setting an NFL record with 606 points. Manning shattered single-season league marks with 55 touchdown passes and 5,477 yards, but he'll have to get used to a different cast of characters with the free-agent departures of wide receiver Eric Decker and running back Knowshon Moreno along with a four-game suspension to wideout Wes Welker for violating the substance-abuse policy. The cupboard is hardly bare, with Demaryius Thomas coming off consecutive 1,400-yard receiving seasons and tight end Julius Thomas hauling in 12 TD passes. Montee Ball takes over for Moreno but the biggest changes come on defense with the additions of sack specialist DeMarcus Ware and cornerbacks Aqib Talib and T.J. Ward.
•PREGAME NOTES: Manning needs 18 touchdown passes to surpass Brett Favre (508) for the most in National Football League history.... Wayne, who suffered a torn ACL in last season's matchup versus Denver, is 19 catches shy of passing Isaac Bruce (1,024) for seventh on the all-time list.... Denver has an league-best 40-13-1 record in home openings, including winning 17 of its last 20.... Irsay has been banned from contact with the Colts for the first six games of the season and was fined $500,000 stemming from a DWI he received in March.
•KEY STATS
--INDIANAPOLIS is 16-5 OVER (+10.5 Units) as a road underdog of 7.5 to 10 points since 1992.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 17.9, OPPONENT 29.8.
--INDIANAPOLIS is 5-15 against the 1rst half line (-11.5 Units) as an underdog versus the 1rst half line over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 10.7, OPPONENT 16.6.
--INDIANAPOLIS is 2-11 against the 1rst half line (-10.1 Units) as a road underdog versus the 1rst half line over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 8.8, OPPONENT 16.8.
--DENVER is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 33.7, OPPONENT 19.1.
--DENVER is 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 42.9, OPPONENT 27.3.
•COACHING TRENDS
--JOHN FOX is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of DENVER.
The average score was DENVER 34.1, OPPONENT 21.6.
--JOHN FOX is 16-5 OVER (+10.5 Units) in the first half of the season as the coach of DENVER.
The average score was DENVER 30.9, OPPONENT 25.9.
--JOHN FOX is 24-13 UNDER (+9.7 Units) the 1rst half total as a favorite versus the 1rst half line as the coach of DENVER.
The average score was DENVER 13.5, OPPONENT 9.4.
--JOHN FOX is 47-27 UNDER (+17.3 Units) the 1rst half total as a home favorite versus the 1rst half line in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was FOX 11.3, OPPONENT 8.3.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--INDIANAPOLIS is 9-3 against the spread versus DENVER since 1992.
--INDIANAPOLIS is 9-3 straight up against DENVER since 1992.
--9 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--INDIANAPOLIS is 6-4 versus the first half line when playing against DENVER since 1992.
--8 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
-- Over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.
--Colts are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
--Favorite is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
--Home team is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--IND is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 versus AFC.
--IND is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games in Week #1.
--Under is 5-1 in IND last 6 games in September.
--DEN is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
--DEN is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 versus AFC.
--Over is 4-0 in DEN last 4 games in Week #1.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 23 times, while the underdog covered the spread 18 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 32 times, while the underdog won straight up 10 times. 1 games went over the total, while 0 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 50 times, while the underdog covered first half line 24 times. *EDGE against first half line =DENVER. 2 games went over first half total, while 1 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
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SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 7th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** National Football League Information - Week #1 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 National Football League season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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NFL Betting News And Notes - Week #1
•Rams Work Out Free Agent Linebackers: Looking to bolster their defense, the St. Louis Rams worked out two free agent linebackers on Friday. Former Atlanta Falcons linebacker Pat Angerer's resume includes 39 starts in 54 career games. He would provide depth at the middle or weak-side position. Angerer was signed by the Atlanta Falcons in July, but released last week. Former Indianapolis Colts linebacker Kelvin Sheppard was released last weekend. He spent the entire 2013 season with the Colts, but has prior experience with the Buffalo Bills. Sheppard has started 31 games in his career. Among the Rams final cuts was rookie Michael Sam, who was signed to the Dallas Cowboys practice squad this week. Sam was a seventh-round pick in the 2014 NFL Draft out of Missouri who thrust himself into the spotlight after becoming the first NFL player to openly say he's gay.
•49ers' McDonald Expected To Play Sunday: Defensive tackle Ray McDonald will play for the San Francisco 49ers in their opener on Sunday despite his arrest a week ago for domestic violence. "As it stands now, yes," 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh said when asked whether McDonald would be in action against the Dallas Cowboys. "Two principles are woven together here. I feel like the way the facts are and what's known that he has the liberty to play in the game." McDonald practiced with the team throughout the week. No charges have been filed against McDonald. He posted $25,000 bail on Sunday afternoon. Any discipline would be handled by the team and not through the league, 49ers general manager Trent Baalke said this week. The NFL announced a new policy last week on domestic violence. Anyone found guilty of domestic violence is suspended for six games for a first offense and receives a lifetime ban for a second offense.
•New Drug Policy Could Affect Welker, Gordon Suspensions: Wes Welker and Josh Gordon are two of a handful of suspended players closely watching to see if the NFL and the players' union are able to strike a deal to modify the league's drug policy in the next 48 hours. If a new policy is agreed upon, those players' suspensions could be reduce or overturned, according to multiple reports. In a radio interview Friday, NFL Players Association executive director DeMaurice Smith said if the new policy is approved, players who have been recently suspended under the old rules should have their sanctions revised or revoked.
"If we get a deal done that covers players in this league year, I don't like that we punish players under a deal active in the old league year," Smith told 106.7 The Fan in Washington. "We don't want players to suffer because the union and the league couldn't get it done before the league year." Two sources close to the negotiations told The Washington Post that an agreement on a new drug policy probably would have to be completed before Sunday's games are played for Gordon and Welker to have their suspensions modified. Talks between the league and the union have focused on adding blood-testing for human growth hormone, as well as other changes to other aspects of the league's drug policies.
The two sides have been discussing modifying the threshold for what would constitute a positive test for marijuana, The Post reported. Gordon's suspension, according to reports, resulted from a positive test for marijuana in which one of the two urine samples taken from him was barely above the current level for a positive test; the other was below it. According to the NFL Network, the union and the league are considering a plan to modify the strict NFL threshold to match that of the military and Major League Baseball, which is more stringent than the Olympics' threshold.
Another policy change involves amphetamine tests. A positive test would no longer fall under performance-enhancing drug policy, but under substance-abuse policy. A positive test during the offseason would not necessarily result in a suspension. According to reports, Welker tested positive for amphetamines during the offseason. Another issue could affect Gordon. Sources say the league would like to immediately discipline players who are arrested for DWI, without going through due process. Gordon was charged with DWI on July 5 in North Carolina. He is scheduled to appear in court on that charge in November. Other players who might be affected by the changes include Dallas Cowboys cornerback Orlando Scandrick.
Scandrick, one of the Cowboys' top defenders, has been suspended for the first four games of the season for violating the league's performance-enhancing drug policy. He tested positive early in the preseason for amphetamines. Similar to Welker, under the new rules he possibly would avoid a suspension. Philadelphia Eagles right tackle Lane Johnson could also see a reduction of his four-game suspension. Neither the Eagles nor Johnson have said what led to the suspension. The Indianapolis Colts' Robert Mathis, who led the league with 19.5 sacks and eight forced fumbles last season, also will be watching to see if his suspension from violating the league's substance-abuse policy will be affected.
•Packers Lacy Has Concussion; Bulaga Sprains MCL: The Green Bay Packers confirmed that running back Eddie Lacy sustained a concussion during Thursday night's 36-16 season-opening loss to the Seattle Seahawks. Late Friday, Packers coach Mike McCarthy said the second-year running back had passed the first step of the NFL’s concussion protocol. Lacy, according to a league source, said he is optimistic he will be cleared to play in Green Bay's next game on Sept. 14 against the New York Jets. Earlier Friday, the Packers said starting right tackle Bryan Bulaga suffered a sprained MCL to his left knee in the second quarter. McCarthy was unsure how much, if any, time Bulaga would miss.
He injured the same knee in training camp last summer, and missed the 2013 season after ACL reconstruction. He was playing in his first game since November 2012 and was wearing a brace on the knee. Lacy, a second-year player, departed in the second half after picking up 34 yards on 12 carries. He left the locker room wearing sunglasses but could not talk to reporters per the NFL's concussion policy. Lacy on Thursday night wore a new Riddell helmet called the SpeedFlex, which the company says helps better absorb impact force by adding flexibility to certain parts of the helmet, according to ESPN.com.
Some players are wearing the helmet, especially those who previously had concussions. It will hit the general retail market Oct. 1. Bulaga was hurt when he collided with tight end Richard Rodgers after Lacy cut back for a 3-yard gain. After remaining on the turf for several minutes, Bulaga limped to the sideline and later left for the locker room. He was replaced by backup Derek Sherrod. Bulaga missed all of the 2013 season after tearing an ACL during a preseason scrimmage and had his 2012 season cut short with a hip injury. The Packers' offensive line came into the opener already missing injured starting center J.C. Tretter. Rookie Corey Linsley took Tretter's place.
•Brady, Gronkowski Listed As Questionable: New England listed quarterback Tom Brady, as well as tight end Rob Grankowski, as questionable on Friday as the Patriots prepare for Sunday's season opener at Miami. Brady said he will be "ready to go" despite a calf injury. He returned to practice on Friday, stretching and jogging in warm-ups during the open media portion of practice. "Physically I had the day off, but I got a lot of extra film in," Brady said in an interview with Westwood One Sports radio on Thursday night. "I got a lot of mental reps in and walk-throughs and such... and I'll be ready to go Sunday. "Anything can happen for anybody between now and then, but I'm looking forward to playing Sunday."
According to the NFL’s standards, a player listed as questionable has a 50-50 chance of playing. The Patriots travel to Miami to play the Dolphins. Brady's backup, rookie second-round pick Jimmy Garoppolo, took the first-team snaps Thursday. Coach Bill Belichick shed no more light on Brady's injury when asked about it Friday. "We have done what we are required to do," Belichick said. "We have listed the injury. We will continue to list it. We'll list his status based on what the requirements of the league are. "Jimmy (Garoppolo) steps in and does it. It's no different than any other position or anything we've done before there." Brady has been durable during most of his career. He has started all 16 Patriots regular-season game in 11 of the past 12 seasons. In 2008, he was hurt in Week 1 and lost for year. The Patriots also re-signed quarterback McLeod Bethel-Thompson to the practice squad Thursday.
Sharp Bettors Should Be Wary Of Mass Kicker Turnover
It’s the position you wait until the last round of your National Football League fantasy drafts to acknowledge, and the roster spot fans rarely get excited about. Their jerseys never sell, you don’t see them in commercials and if their name is mentioned, it’s usually because they’re taking the heat for a fourth quarter mishap. But dammit, kickers are people too. And as we approach the start of the 2014 NFL season, it’s important to note the key changes that have been made at the position around the league. Because you just may need one of these guys to cover a spread with a game-winner from 54 yards...
•Arizona Cardinals: Arizona parted ways with 13-year NFL veteran Jay Feely this summer to make room for rookie Chandler Catanzaro, who went 13 for 14 (92.9 percent) at Clemson last season, which included a long of 51 yards. Catanzaro converted all seven of his field goal attempts during the preseason and when you consider the fact that Feely ranked just 21st in the league in field goal accuracy last year (30/36), the Cardinals should be better off in 2014 with the rookie leading the charge.
•Denver Broncos: Matt Prater - the NFL’s most accurate kicker from a year ago (25 for 26) who earned a trip to the Pro Bowl in 2013 - is suspended for the first four games of the season for a violation of the league’s substance abuse policy. In his absence, the Broncos will trot out the professionally untested Brandon McManus, a 2012 Temple graduate who converted 60 of 83 (72.3 percent) field goal attempts in 49 career appearances for the Owls. While the Mile High elevation will help, bettors need to be cautious here, as McManus hasn’t attempted a meaningful field goal in two years.
•Detroit Lions: After a 2013 season, in which their kicker ranked an unacceptable 27th in the NFL in field goal accuracy (79.2 percent), the Lions sent longtime veteran David Akers packing and turned the keys to the car over to rookie seventh-round pick Nate Freese. Freese was a perfect 20 for 20 at Boston College last year (2 for 2 from 50-plus yards) and went 6 for 6 during his first NFL preseason with Detroit. The 24 year old is used to kicking in bad New England weather, so transitioning to Ford Field should ease his entry into the professional ranks.
•Kansas City Chiefs: Five-year veteran Ryan Succop is out after ranking 28th in the league in field goal accuracy last season (78.6 percent) and has been replaced by Brazilian rookie Cairo Santos, who went 3 for 3 during the preseason. However, it’s worth noting that Santos will now transition outdoors into the volatile Kansas City weather after spending his collegiate years kicking in a dome while playing for Tulane. Keep an eye on the rookie when the calendar flips to late October.
•Philadelphia Eagles: The Birds dumped 2011 fourth-round selection Alex Henery after watching the Nebraska product’s conversion rate decline in each of his three years in the league. A new era begins Sunday against Jacksonville with Auburn rookie Cody Parkey, who went 5 for 5 during the preseason, but just 15 for 21 (71.4 percent) last year with the Tigers. In all honesty, it’s not as if it can get much worse at the position for Philadelphia, but it is worth noting that Parkey was just 1 for 4 last year from 50-plus yards. Range could be an issue.
•Tampa Bay Buccaneers: A model of instability at the position, this season rookie Patrick Murray will become the sixth kicker to attempt a field goal for the Buccaneers in as many years. Rian Lindell lasted just one season in Tampa Bay after ranking 26th in the NFL in conversion rate in 2013 (79.3 percent). Murray went 25 for 30 at Fordham last year and was 4 for 6 from 50-plus yards, so you know he’s got the leg to drive home a long-distance game-winner, should the Buccaneers need it.
•Tennessee Titans: Nine-year veteran and 2007 Pro Bowler Rob Bironas was let go last March after ranking just 20th in the league in conversion rate last season (86.2 percent). In his place steps Kansas City castoff Ryan Succop, who was actually worse than Bironas in 2013 (78.6 percent). Time will tell if this move pays off for new head coach Ken Whisenhunt and the Titans. But it’s worth noting that, historically, Bironas has been much more reliable from downtown (50-plus).
Super Bowl Consensus Picks
Another NFL season is here and of course the question headed into 2014 is who will win the Super Bowl? We polled our stable of handicappers looking for their views on who will win the AFC and NFC titles and which team will hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy in Glendale, Arizona in early February. There were plenty of mixed opinions on who will rise to the top, but the majority of handicappers don't feel the Seahawks will repeat as champions.
A handful of StatSystems Sports handicappers give their opinion on who will win the Super Bowl, with a majority believing the New England Patriots will rise back to the top of the AFC.
New England
•Vegas Insider Ryan Taylor - The Patriots made it back to the AFC Championship game last year, but ran into a road block called the Denver Broncos. When TE Rob Gronkowski was healthy last season, the Patriots had one of the best offenses in the entire league. When he was out, the Pats weren’t close to the same team and Tom Brady wasn’t nearly as effective as a quarterback. Gronk played just 7 games last season but caught 39 balls for 592 yards and 4 TD's. Even without Gronkowski for most of the season and no 'big time' receivers on the roster the Patriots were 7th in yards per game, 3rd in points scored and 9th in yards per point scored.
The Patriots suffered some key injuries on the defensive side of the ball as linebacker Jerod Mayo was lost after the sixth week of the season due to a torn pectoral muscle. His injury came a week after the Patriots lost run stuffing DT Vince Wilfork to a torn Achilles. How important were those two players to New England's defense? Through the first five weeks last season, the Patriots had the 2nd best YPPA (yards per points against) defense in the NFL at 24.64. By season's end, New England allowed 17.66 YPPA and were 26th in the NFL in yards allowed per game. Getting those two back to go with Jamie Collins, Donta’ Hightower, Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich could make for one of the best front 7's in the AFC.
Seattle
•Expert Handicapper Jude Ravo - Normally, the idea is to just knock out the defending Super Bowl champ, as repeating in the National Football League is as tough as it gets. But I don't see the Seahawks falling prey to that curse. They have evidently lost none of their hunger, and the Seattle personnel is simply the best in the league, and by a pretty fair margin. I like the Patriots this season, well balanced, well coached and having what appears to be a cakewalk to another division title. If this is indeed the Super Bowl matchup, the Seahawks would have to be the favorite.
Green Bay
•Systems Analyst William Stillman - For years, this team was Aaron Rodgers or bust, but we saw last year they have improved the talent level enough to at least stay competitive without their Most Valuable Player-caliber quarterback. This team has never had the kind of balanced attack on offense that they will be able to attack teams with this season with they're running game, and come January that will make a world of difference. Their defense is improved enough to give their offense the chance to carry them to a title, and there is no offense we would rather count on.
New Orleans
•Systems Analyst Larry Hertner - Expect the "no-repeat" rule to be invoked again in NFC South, which has not had a repeat winner since the 2002 realignment, which is bad news for Carolina. Saints will capitalize and dominate what is a suspect division (Panthers could regress, Falcons iffy, Buccaneers also iffy). Saints improved much on defense last year under Rob Ryan, signing Jairus Byrd in free agency from Bills adds a real playmaker to the mix. Drew Brees and the offense will be potent as usual. The real reason I like the Saints in the NFC is because I think they will have the best record in conference, and home-field edge will be the determining factor in playoffs.
Indianapolis
•Systems Analyst James Vogel - While the Colts may not be the best team in the AFC, they have a great shot to earn one of the top two seeds in the AFC, leaving a favorable path to get to the Super Bowl. The three opponents in the AFC South for Indianapolis combined to go 13-35 last season and two of those teams now have new coaching staffs in what could be challenging transition seasons. While Indianapolis has been a fortunate team the past two seasons, this year’s team added even more great offensive weapons for Andrew Luck in his third season. Indianapolis is not likely to be a great defensive team overall this season but they do have a capable secondary and a legitimate pass rush and they have proven that they can keep pace with just about anyone. Denver and New England deserve to be bigger favorites in the AFC but the Colts may wind up with a better record with a favorable schedule, particularly late in the season as the Colts won’t play a winning team from 2013 in any of the final six weeks.
SUPER BOWL XLIX ODDS
•Denver Broncos 6/1
•Seattle Seahawks 6/1
•New England Patriots 8/1
•Green Bay Packers 11/1
•New Orleans Saints 11/1
•San Francisco 49ers 12/1
•Philadelphia Eagles 20/1
•Chicago Bears 26/1
•Indianapolis Colts 28/1
•Pittsburgh Steelers 28/1
•Cincinnati Bengals 30/1
Quick Hits - Monday
•Giants @ Lions-- Giants started 0-1 last three years; they’re lost three of last four road openers, with 12 of last 14 going over total. Detroit lost six of last seven games last season, one of which was 23-20 (-9) Week #16 debacle to Giants; New York’s two touchdowns were on 49-yard drive and defensive score. Lions outrushed them 148-41, still lost; that doesn’t happen a lot. Giants won last three series meetings by total of 17 points; they won last five visits to Motor City. Detroit has new coaches, Giants have new offense that struggled to gel in preseason. Lions won last three home openers, scoring 36.3 ppg; they’re 7-1-1 versus spread in last nine openers, with last four going over total. Last three years, Giants are 11-6 as road underdogs.
•Chargers @ Cardinals-- San Diego is 9-3 in last dozen series meetings, winning last three by 8-7-31 points; they won three of four visits to University of Phoenix Stadium, but haven’t been in desert since 2002, before dome opened. Chargers are 8-3-1 as road underdogs last two years; they covered three of four versus NFC in 2013, after being 0-8 previous two seasons. Chargers won four of last five Week #1 road openers; five of their last seven road openers went over total. Cardinals were 5-1-1 as favorites in Arians’ first year, after covering only five of previous 20 games when favored. Arizona won six of last seven home openers (5-2 vs. spread); they‘re 6-1-1 versus spread in Week #1 last eight years.
How Was Your Football Season Last Year?
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Sharp Moves - Week #1
Vegas Insider Ryan Taylor
We're getting ready to head into another weekend of National Football League betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays a lot sharper than others. Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week #1 of the pro football season! Note: All public betting percentages courtesy of StatSystemsSports.net matchup index as of Friday morning.
(Rotation #466) St. Louis -3.5 – It's not often that a favored team is considered sharp, but that's what the case is here in St. Louis. The Rams remember, were considered to be one of the up and coming teams in the league this year until quarterback Sam Bradford tore his ACL. The oddsmakers adjusted from the Rams being favored by five to favored by just 3.5 in this one, and that's proof that perhaps there isn't that much of a drop off from Bradford to QB Shaun Hill in the oddsmakers' eyes. St. Louis is a lot more than just a one-man offense, and this defense is the real deal. We see no reason why the Rams shouldn't be laying more than just standard home field advantage in this game.
•Opening Line: St. Louis -5
•Current Line: St. Louis -3.5
•Public Betting Percentage: 67% on Minnesota
(Rotation #469) Jacksonville +10 – The sharpest play on the board. Most figure that head coach Chip Kelly is going to be able to keep QB Nick Foles playing at a ridiculously high rate in 2014, and we just don't know if it is going to happen. The Jaguars closed out the season on a strong note last year, and we have a feeling that they are going to be one of the better surprise teams in 2014. They aren't going to win this game, but just the fact that the spread has come down from 11.5 at the open to 10 at the present (with some 10.5 numbers still being shown up there) is proof enough to us that the "Wise Guys" agree with our assessment. This is a whole heck of a lot of points for a team to be getting in Week #1; especially with many of the belief that Philly is the surefire bet to repeat as NFC East champions.
•Opening Line: Jacksonville +11.5
•Current Line: Jacksonville +10
•Public Betting Percentage: 69% on Philadelphia
(Rotation #479) Tennessee +3.5 – The Titans and Chiefs were really nowhere near each other last year, but the oddsmakers think that these clubs are virtually even heading into 2014. It's tough to fathom that, but Tennessee should be at least a relatively average team. This is a bet though, that goes against the public perception that says Kansas City is a good squad. In fact, we don't see how this team finishes .500 this year. QB Alex Smith is the quintessential game manager, and if RB Jamaal Charles is even remotely slowed down and DE Justin Houston can't get off of the edge in a hurry, we don't see how the Chiefs are winning games on either side of the ball.
•Opening Line: Tennessee +5.5
•Current Line: Tennessee +3.5
•Public Betting Percentage: 73% on Kansas City
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Biggest Betting Mismatches Week #1
Expert Handicapper Jude Ravo
Each and every week during the National Football League's 2014-15 campaign, StatSystemsSports.net Expert Jude Ravo will break down some of the underlying mismatches on the schedule, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the card. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week #1. "Until next week, as always enjoy and the very best of luck" -Jude!
•New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (+3, Over/Under 51.5)
Saints’ Rushing Attack vs. Falcons’ Run Defense
When you think of the Saints you aren’t automatically drawn to thoughts of smashmouth football and a run-heavy playbook. However, with New Orleans working in a group of new receivers in 2014, head coach Sean Payton will look to running backs Mark Ingram, Khiry Robinson, and Pierre Thomas to tread water until Drew Brees and his new targets cook up some chemistry. Ingram has a lot of buzz around him this summer and was named the team’s Preseason Offensive MVP.
You’d think less Brees would be a good thing for the Falcons defense. And it is. But Atlanta was exposed on the ground last season, giving up 135.8 rushing yards per game – second worst in the National Football League. The Falcons’ stop unit is extremely young with five second-year players starting but did spend some money up front, trying to plug those holes against the run. New Orleans’ running-backs will put those new faces to the test early and often Sunday afternoon.
•Minnesota Vikings @ St. Louis Rams (-3, Over/Under 43)
Vikings’ New Defense vs. Rams’ Offensive Line
The Rams offensive line had one mission this season: Keep Sam Bradford healthy. They didn’t even make it out of the preseason, with Bradford suffering another ACL tear that leaves St. Louis starting backup Shaun Hill under center in Week #1. St. Louis’ pass protection is a mess. Left tackle Jake Long isn’t the same player since his own ACL injury, guard Roger Saffold has been slowed by ailments all summer, and first-round pick Greg Robinson hasn’t found his footing yet in the pros.
That iffy pass protection will be tested by the Vikings’ new-look defense under head coach Mike Zimmer, who is known for his aggressive blitz packages. Minnesota has already seen a major uptick on that side of the ball since Zimmer took over. The Vikings finished last in scoring defense in 2013, allowing 30 points per game. They gave up just 12.3 points per game in their undefeated preseason run – No. 2 in the NFL. Sure, those are only exhibition results but there’s excitement surrounding this stop unit in the Land of 10,000 Lakes.
•Buffalo Bills @ Chicago Bears (-6.5, Over/Under 47.5)
Bills’ Short Secondary vs. Bears’ Big Receivers
The Bears’ receiving corps could be mistaken for members of the Chicago Bulls. Dynamic wideout combo Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery stand 6-foot-4 and 6-foot-3 respectively. Add to those weapons tight-ends Martellus Bennett (6-foot-6) and Dante Rosario (6-foot-3), along with pass-catching running-back Matt Forte (6-foot-2, tall for a running back), and the Bears have one hell of a five-on-five hoops lineup.
Unfortunately for Buffalo, these teams aren’t playing charity pick-up on the hallowed Windy City blacktop. It’s football on Sunday. The Bills will have to look up – way up – when Chicago head coach Marc Trestman unleashes his towers of power. Buffalo’s tallest member of the secondary is corner Stephon Gilmore, who measures up at 6-foot-1. Gilmore is one of the more physical pass defenders but has been limited by a groin injury. Five-foot-10 corner Leodis McKelvin is also on the mend after undergoing hip surgery this offseason. "(Chicago’s WRs are) tall, they’re physical and they can go get the ball. It’s going to be a real good test for us corners," McKelvin told The Buffalo News.
•Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos (-7.5, Over/Under 55.5)
Colts’ Denver Domination vs. Broncos’ Kicker Conundrum
This Sunday Night Football matchup will likely play banker to most books on the first Sunday of the season, meaning there’s going to be a ton of money funneling into this primetime finale. And that loot will likely ride on the foot of Broncos seat-filler Brandon McManus, who is holding down the kicker spot with stud leg Matt Prater serving a four-game suspension. McManus has been collecting dust since booting for Temple in 2012 and could face some less than ideal kicking conditions at Mile High (chance of thunderstorms Sunday night).
The Colts have won and covered in six-straight meetings with the Broncos, including a tight 39-33 victory at home last season. Indianapolis’ defense was able to get to Peyton Manning four times in that game, forced four fumbles – recovering two – and grabbed one interception, leaving Prater to be called upon for two field goals. Colts opponents connected on just 78.79 percent of their field goal attempts in 2013 – a strange but convenient stat – and blocked a field goal for a 61-yard TD return in their win over Seattle. Indianapolis is known for nail bitters and with that half-point hook on the spread, a single missed field goal from McManus could spell doom for Denver backers.
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Need-To-Know Facts For All 32 Teams
Systems Analyst James Vogel
Everyone knows Christmas Day is December 25th, but for National Football League fans and bettors alike, it's really the first Sunday of the new football season. If you're still up in the air about your Week #1 wagers, we've got you covered here at StatSystemsSports.net. Here's a comprehensive look at the season forecast for every NFL team.
AFC East
•New England Patriots (2013: 12-4 SU, 8-8 ATS) - Is Brady’s production on the decline or was last year an aberration? The running game seemingly loses key pieces on a yearly basis, with LeGarrette Blount the most recent defector. Who can plug the hole and relieve some of the pressure on Brady? The offensive line has its share of questions that will need to be addressed before the start of the season.
•Buffalo Bills (2013: 6-10 SU, 8-8 ATS) - Change is once again in order in Buffalo, and that’s not a bad thing. Sammy Watkins should add some electricity to the offense, which head coach Doug Marrone wants to move at an even faster pace this season. The defense has a new coordinator in Jim Schwarz, and he brings a new scheme to a unit that is loaded with talent but hasn’t been able to reach its potential.
•Miami Dolphins (2013: 8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS) - Despite having key pieces in place, the Dolphins offense stunk a year ago, but should be vastly improved under the guidance of new coordinator Bill Lazor in 2014. The Fins defense helped pick up the slack and could be even better this year. That’s a scary prospect for the rest of the AFC East. If the offensive line shows even moderate improvement, the Fins will take a leap forward.
•New York Jets (2013: 8-8 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) - The secondary has a number of holes and will get picked on regularly out of the gate. Is the presence of Decker enough to strike fear in the hearts of opposing pass defenses? It’s hard to believe that Rex Ryan is still at the helm given the turmoil this team has gone through, and you have to wonder whether the clock is still ticking on his tenure in New York. In a tough division, the Jets may not have quite enough in the tool box to keep pace.
AFC North
•Cincinnati Bengals (2013: 11-5 SU, 10-5-1 ATS) - The quarterback rating for Dalton is still not great as his 88.8 rating was 15th among qualified leaders last year. He has a lot of weapons, although the loss of receiver Marvin Jones for the few three games at least will hurt. The division as whole should be tougher after Baltimore and Pittsburgh took a step back last season. The schedule is a challenge with trips to New England, Indianapolis and New Orleans and visits from Atlanta and Denver.
•Pittsburgh Steelers (2013: 8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS) - Pittsburgh has missed the playoffs each of the last two years following 8-8 seasons, so there will be plenty of motivation to turn things around. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger tossed 28 touchdowns, his most since 2007, but he also threw 14 interceptions. He should have better protection and the additions of Lance Moore and Darrius Heyward-Bey should help improve his numbers this year. The toughest road games outside of the division are at Carolina and Atlanta.
•Baltimore Ravens (2013: 8-8 SU, 7-9 ATS) - Flacco had his worse passer rating in his six-year career as he tossed a career-high 22 picks last season. While a rebound should be expected, the only addition to his receiving corps was Steve Smith, who is arguably past his prime. Like the Steelers, the defense is old and an improvement seems unlikely. The Ravens went 2-6 on the highway last year and the road slate this year is even tougher.
•Cleveland Browns (2013: 4-12 SU, 6-10 ATS) - There’s a renewed energy in Cleveland with the hiring of Mike Pettine as head coach after Rob Chudzinski was fired after just one season. Drafting Johnny Manziel was a risk that could pay off right away. The Browns defense has taken a step back in points allowed the last two years but it is still an above average unit and should improve this year. While the schedule isn't a cakewalk, it’s the easiest in the AFC North.
AFC South
•Indianapolis Colts (2013: 12-6 SU, 11-7 ATS) - Indianapolis had back-to-back fortunate years and regression has to set in soon. Seven of their wins came by single digits last season. The Colts defense was good against the bad teams, but awful against the good teams, so they need to make improvements if they want to go forward. Despite their 23 wins over the last two seasons, the Colts will likely regress in 2014.
•Houston Texans (2013: 2-14 SU, 4-12 ATS) - Houston made a terrific head coach hire in Bill O’Brien. He immediately added to his coaching staff with former colleagues that coached together in New England. The Texans have one of the best coaching staffs in the league and with a veteran roster, 2014 will be a much better season than 2013. There’s nowhere to go but up and the Texans will be much better than people think.
•Tennessee Titans (2013: 7-9 SU, 6-7-3 ATS) - The Titans come off a 7-9 SU season, but seven of their losses came by single digits. Tennessee has a new defensive coordinator in Ray Horton. He will implement a 3-4 defensive scheme and even though the Titans don’t have the right personnel for that just yet, sometimes a change is philosophy makes a unit better. There’s hope in Tennessee, but the Titans will likely be a .500 team at best this year.
•Jacksonville Jaguars (2013: 4-12 SU, 5-10-1 ATS) - If Jacksonville carries over any momentum from late last season, they could be competitive in 2014. The Jaguars went 4-4 over their last eight games with their four losses only coming by 11 points per game. Jacksonville still has a young roster but the majority of the coaching staff will be returning for their second year. Reports out of Florida have been extremely high on head coach Gus Bradley and his impact on the team. The youngsters have taken to his coaching style.
AFC West
•Denver Broncos (2013: 13-3 SU, 10-5-1 ATS) - At the age of 38, just two years after a potential career ending neck injury, Peyton Manning may be just one hit away from retirement. An injury to Manning would likely be devastating for the Broncos, who don’t have an experienced backup. Manning isn’t the only veteran that could be considered an injury risk, Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware are both coming off injuries, Ware is 32 years old and Miller has yet to play this preseason.
•Kansas City Chiefs (2013: 11-5 SU, 8-8 ATS) - The offense will depend heavily on the run, but that should be a good thing with Jamaal Charles carrying the load. Charles is a dual threat, with a dozen rushing TDs and seven TD receptions last season. He ran for 1,287 yards and added 70 catches for 693 yards in the air. Alex Smith was just one of 10 Chiefs to go to the Pro Bowl and he’s one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the league.
•San Diego Chargers (2013: 9-7 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) - The loss of offensive coordinator Ken Wisenhunt could hurt Phillip Rivers' chances of repeating his breakout performance last season. Starting running-back Ryan Mathews stayed healthy last year for the first time in his four year career, but there is no guarantee he will stay healthy again this season. A brutal schedule isn’t going to help their chances, as they face Seattle, Denver, Kansas City and Arizona before the bye week.
•Oakland Raiders (2013: 4-12 SU, 7-8-1 ATS) - It’s certainly not easy to find positives for the Raiders, but perhaps because expectations are so low, it might be possible they will be better than expected. They were certainly busy in the off-season bringing in Matt Schuab and Maurice Jones-Drew on offense, and their defense should be better with Justin Tuck, Carlos Rogers, Lamarr Woodley and first round draft pick Khalil Mack.
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NFC East
•Philadelphia Eagles (2013: 10-6 SU, 8-8 ATS) - The Eagles essentially stood pat when it comes to offseason moves on the defensive side of the football. They believe they can take a big step forward, but a look at their personnel indicates otherwise. There’s also a lot more pressure on QB Nick Foles following his breakout 2013 campaign. He certainly won’t catch opposing defenses by surprise.
•Washington Redskins (2013: 3-13 SU, 5-11 ATS) - New head coach Jay Gruden should inject some life into the Redskins, who suffered a massive letdown due to injuries last season. A healthy Robert Griffin III obviously makes all the difference in the world, as does the addition of DeSean Jackson to the receiving corps. Don’t forget Pierre Garcon quietly led the league in catches a year ago.
•Dallas Cowboys (2013: 8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS) - The window of opportunity is closing for a number of Cowboys stalwarts and that should be more than enough motivation to draw their best effort in 2014. Dallas more than held its own with an awful defense a year ago. So if it can improve even marginally in that department, it should be able to control its own destiny this season.
•New York Giants (2013: 7-9 SU, 7-9 ATS) - You never really know whether sweeping changes will pay off, especially in the short term. How will Eli Manning adapt to the new offensive philosophy? Can the offensive line hold up its end of the bargain following a miserable 2013 season? To be honest, there are more questions than answers at this point. That’s not to mention the fact that the Giants schedule is unforgiving, especially early on.
NFC North
•Green Bay Packers (2013: 8-7-1 SU, 7-9 ATS) - Defense. The Packers allowed 26.8 points per game last season, the most given up in over a decade and a repeat of that will cause issues. The return of Clay Matthews and the addition of Julius Peppers will certainly help, but will it be enough? A running game behind Rodgers is essential as well but that’s no guarantee either.
•Chicago Bears (2013: 8-8 SU, 4-11-1 ATS) - Similar to Green Bay, it comes down to the defense which allowed almost two touchdowns per game more than the previous season. But even an improved stop unit may not be enough. Keeping Cutler healthy is huge as there is no proven backup. Should he go down again, the Bears will be outside of the playoffs for the seventh time in eight years.
•Detroit Lions (2013: 7-9 SU, 6-10 ATS) - After making the playoffs just once in five years under Jim Schwartz, a change was made and Jim Caldwell was brought in. The offense will again be explosive behind Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, Reggie Bush and the return of the entire offensive line. The defense could be the best in years and a tame schedule could make Detroit a sleeper in the NFC North.
•Minnesota Vikings (2013: 5-10-1 SU, 9-7 ATS) - New head coach Mike Zimmer comes into town with a roster full of talent and Minnesota was better than last season's record shows. Four of the Vikings’ losses were by four points or less and now with low expectations, they could turn the tables on some of those winnable games. The schedule is in their favor as they play only three teams that had a winning record last season.
NFC South
•New Orleans Saints (2013: 11-5 SU, 8-8 ATS) - As long as Sean Payton and Drew Brees are working together, the Saints are a formidable team. New Orleans always possesses a strong offense, but their biggest improvement last season came on defense. Defensive coordinator Rob Ryan brought a level of toughness to the Saints, and the players responded well to his coaching. The Saints gave up just 18 points per game and if they can duplicate that success, they should have another winning season.
•Atlanta Falcons (2013: 4-12 SU, 7-9 ATS) - Atlanta is in desperate need of stabilizing their offensive and defensive lines. Both units stunk last season. The Falcons fired both position coaches, so the team must hope the new voices get things back in order. Atlanta went 0-7 SU in true road games last season, and with tough out of division opponents like the Bengals, Giants, Ravens and Packers all coming away from home, the Falcons are facing a daunting schedule in 2014.
•Carolina Panthers (2013: 12-5 SU, 9-7-1 ATS) - Question marks are aplenty in Carolina coming into 2014. The Panthers’ offense was poor in 2013, and now their offensive line is a mess and QB Cam Newton had off-season surgery. Their defense lost some key personnel, and off-field troubles have come to light. Carolina can go either way, so they are a difficult team to project without seeing what they look like on the field. But we’ll lean to a regression year for the Panthers.
•Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2013: 4-12 SU, 6-10 ATS) - It was a tale of two seasons for Tampa Bay in 2013. The Buccaneers started out 0-8 straight-up last season, but the team did not quit and they went 4-4 over their final eight games. The new head coach is Lovie Smith, and he has the respect of his players unlike Greg Schiano last season. Tampa Bay’s defense has a lot of young talent, and they have the potential to be really good this year, especially with Smith’s clever defensive schemes.
NFC West
•Seattle Seahawks (2013: 13-3 SU, 11-5 ATS) - Quarterback Russell Wilson will be in just his third season as a starter. He's shown plenty of poise in his first two years and there’s every reason to assume he'll only get better. If Percy Harvin can stay healthy or rookie Paul Richardson makes an impact, we could see the Seahawks offense make strides in 2014. No team enjoys as much of a home-field advantage as the Seahawks with their 12th man at CenturyLink Field, where they are 15-1 the last two seasons.
•San Francisco 49ers (2013: 12-4 SU, 11-5 ATS) - Injuries have taken their toll on San Francisco, which lost Kendall Hunter to a torn ACL, and LaMichael James to a dislocated elbow in training camp. That leaves the backfield in a fragile state, with an aging Frank Gore backed up by an injury-prone Marcus Lattimore and unproven rookie in Carlos Hyde. They also lost Glen Dorsey (out for the season) and Navarro Bowman, who is expected to miss at least the first half of 2014.
•Arizona Cardinals (2013: 10-6 SU, 11-5 ATS) - There’s concern in the linebacking corps as Karlos Dansby bolted to Cleveland and Daryl Washington has been suspended for the season. Along with safety Yeremiah Bell, who wasn't resigned, the team's top three tacklers from last season (270 in total) are all gone. It could be a rough year for Carson Palmer, as Seattle, San Francisco and St. Louis all have ferocious pass rushes that will make life miserable for the immobile veteran quarterback.
•St. Louis Rams (2013: 7-9 SU, 7-9 ATS) - While they look solid on the defensive end, and the running game should be strong with Zac Stacy coming off an impressive rookie campaign, there are still plenty of questions regarding this offense. The Rams averaged fewer than 200 yards passing per game and they don't exactly have a star-studded corps of receivers.
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Sunday's Week #1 Matchups
Systems Analyst Todd Smith
#463 NEW ORLEANS @ #464 ATLANTA
TV: 1:00 PM EST, FOX Sports
Line: Saints -3, Total: 51.5
The Atlanta Falcons would rather forget that the 2013 season happened and will be quick to turn the page when they host the New Orleans Saints in the season opener on Sunday afternoon. The Falcons were decimated by injuries last season and watched the offense go from one of the most prolific in the league to one of the worst. The Saints are hoping to build off a trip to the divisional round of the postseason last January and are again stacked on offense.
New Orleans had its struggles scoring on the road last season but is always better in a dome like Atlanta, where it has earned the win in six of the last eight trips. Drew Brees lost one of his main weapons when Darren Sproles departed to Philadelphia in the offseason but tight end Jimmy Graham is still around to prop up the passing game and the defense is coming off a top-five season. Only in the modern NFL can a season in which a quarterback throws for over 4,500 yards and 26 touchdowns be a disappointment, but that is exactly what Atlanta’s Matt Ryan is attempting to improve upon in 2014.
•ABOUT THE SAINTS (2013: 11-5, 2nd NFC South): New Orleans’ struggles on the road in the regular season led to the team missing out on home-field advantage in the playoffs, and the Saints ended up losing at Seattle in the divisional round after a surprising victory in Philadelphia. The big turnaround for the team came on the defensive side of the ball, where Rob Ryan rebuilt one of the worst units in the league. The defensive coordinator received a new toy in safety Jairus Byrd, who will be expected to create more turnovers for a pass defense that ranked second in the NFL in 2013.
•ABOUT THE FALCONS (2013: 4-12, 3rd NFC South): Ryan threw a career-high 17 interceptions and was sacked a career-most 44 times to go along with those 4,515 yards and 26 scores in 2013, so Atlanta gave him some protection in the form of No. 6 overall pick left tackle Jake Matthews. Ryan will also be working with a healthy Julio Jones and Roddy White after the two top targets combined to miss 14 games in 2013. The Falcons are also hoping a return to health for Steven Jackson can boost a running game that provided Ryan little support. “I've been working hard physically and mentally to prepare for this coming Sunday,” Jackson told reporters. “I feel good about it.”
•PREGAME NOTES: The Saints re-signed wide-receiver Robert Meachem on Wednesday, four days after releasing him.... Atlanta DT Corey Peters, who did not play in the preseason while recovering from an Achilles injury, is participating in practice this week.... New Orleans signed LB Junior Galette to a $41.5 million contract extension.... The Saints are 29-47 against the 1rst half line in September games since 1992, and 0-6 against the 1rst half line in road games in games played on turf over the last two seasons.
•KEY STATS
--NEW ORLEANS is 12-2 UNDER (+9.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 23.9, OPPONENT 18.6.
--ATLANTA is 16-5 against the 1rst half line (+10.5 Units) in home games in the first two weeks of the season since 1992.
The average score was ATLANTA 14.7, OPPONENT 9.5.
--ATLANTA is 13-3 OVER (+9.7 Units) the 1rst half total versus the first half line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ATLANTA 12.6, OPPONENT 13.9.
--ATLANTA is 10-2 OVER (+7.8 Units) the 1rst half total against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ATLANTA 12.8, OPPONENT 14.1.
•COACHING TRENDS
--SEAN PAYTON is 16-6 UNDER (+9.4 Units) in road games versus division opponents as the coach of NEW ORLEANS.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 23.2, OPPONENT 19.0.
--MIKE SMITH is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games in the first two weeks of the season as the coach of ATLANTA.
The average score was ATLANTA 30.7, OPPONENT 18.7.
--MIKE SMITH is 7-0 against the 1rst half line (+7.0 Units) in home games in the first two weeks of the season as the coach of ATLANTA.
The average score was ATLANTA 19.1, OPPONENT 7.7.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--ATLANTA is 26-18 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS since 1992.
--NEW ORLEANS is 24-20 straight up against ATLANTA since 1992.
--22 of 44 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--ATLANTA is 23-21 versus the first half line when playing against NEW ORLEANS since 1992.
--24 of 42 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
--Saints are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
--Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Atlanta.
--Underdog is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
--Home team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--NO is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games.
--NO is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
--Under is 5-1 in Saints last 6 versus NFC South.
--ATL is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 versus NFC.
--ATL is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
--Over is 4-1 in Falcons last 5 games in September.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 16 times, while the underdog covered the spread 11 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 21 times, while the underdog won straight up 9 times. 4 games went under the total, while 1 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 28 times, while the underdog covered first half line 28 times. *No EDGE. 10 games went under first half total, while 4 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play On - Underdogs or pick (ATLANTA) - first month of the season, after closing out last season with 6 or more losses in last 8 games, bad team from last season (25% to 40%) playing a team that had a winning record last year, in conference games.
(31-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.5%, +21.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (18-27 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 5.6
The average score in these games was: Team 21.7, Opponent 22.5 (Average point differential = -0.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 18 (40.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-7).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (67-38).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (192-147).
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#465 MINNESOTA @ #466 ST LOUIS
TV: 1:00 PM EST, FOX Sports
Line: Rams -3.5, Total: 43
Now that the Michael Sam saga is behind them, the St. Louis Rams can focus solely on football when they host the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday in the season opener for both teams. The Rams' biggest area of concern is at quarterback where $50-million man Sam Bradford is out for the season with a torn ACL and veteran backup Shaun Hill takes over. The 35-year-old Hill, who has thrown only 16 passes in the last three seasons and started 26 games in his career, will be thrown into the fire in the rough and rugged NFC West.
Hill could find a soft landing spot in the opener against a porous Vikings defense that yielded a NFL record-tying 37 touchdowns last season and will be without five-time Pro Bowl defensive end Jared Allen for the first time since 2007. Minnesota cleaned house after the season, replacing coach Leslie Frazier with Cincinnati defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer and bringing in notable offensive guru Norv Turner to call the plays and George Edwards to assist in schooling the defense. Opposing defenses again will attempt to stop Adrian Peterson and force quarterback Matt Cassel to beat them down the field.
•ABOUT THE VIKINGS (2013: 5-10-1, 4th NFC North): To capitalize on all five interior linemen returning and one of the presumably few remaining peak seasons left for the 29-year-old Peterson, the Vikings need to address a defense that yielded an NFL-worst 30 points per game and almost 400 yards per contest. Everson Griffen, a five-year veteran who has recorded 13 1/2 sacks the past two years, will take over for Allen, and the Vikings feel first-round pick Anthony Barr will be a difference-maker at linebacker. Not much weight will be placed on the Vikings' undefeated preseason, but Cassel, who is being pushed by first-round pick Teddy Bridgewater, notched a 103.3 passer rating and adapted well to Turner's scheme that requires more passes down the field than in years past.
•ABOUT THE RAMS (2013: 7-9, 4th NFC West): Almost lost in all the hoopla surrounding Sam was the injury to Bradford, who has been hurt in three of the last four years and has been just mediocre when on the field since being drafted with the first overall pick in 2010. With Hill taking the reins, St. Louis will have to rely even more heavily on a deep and talented defensive line led by end Robert Quinn, who had a franchise-record 19 sacks and seven forced fumbles in 2013. The Rams' defense led the NFC in fewest yards per carry (3.7) last campaign and were second in sacks (53) - a big reason why Sam couldn't crack this talented, deep defensive front despite three sacks in the preseason.
•PREGAME NOTES: Peterson enters the season first in team history and 27th all-time with 10,115 yards. He could move into the top 15 with another 1,500 yards this year.... Vikings TE Kyle Rudolph signed a five-year contract over the summer that makes him the fifth-highest paid at his position. He lost weight this offseason and will be featured more in Turner's offense that had Antonio Gates in San Diego.... Minnesota leads the all-time series 19-14-2 and has won three of the past four games.... The Rams are 23-41 versus the spread in September games since 1992.
•KEY STATS
--MINNESOTA is 12-4 OVER (+7.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 24.4, OPPONENT 30.0.
--ST LOUIS is 43-24 OVER (+16.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
The average score was ST LOUIS 28.0, OPPONENT 22.2.
--ST LOUIS is 21-9 OVER (+11.1 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
The average score was ST LOUIS 28.0, OPPONENT 22.2.
•COACHING TRENDS
--JEFF FISHER is 14-33 ATS (-22.3 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was FISHER 21.2, OPPONENT 20.6.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--ST LOUIS is 5-4 against the spread versus MINNESOTA since 1992.
--MINNESOTA is 5-4 straight up against ST LOUIS since 1992.
--8 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--MINNESOTA is 6-2 versus the first half line when playing against ST LOUIS since 1992.
--6 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.
--Favorite is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
--Over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in St. Louis.
•RECENT TRENDS
--MIN is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 versus NFC.
--MIN is 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games on turf.
--Over is 4-0 in MIN last 4 games in September.
--STL is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in Week #1.
--STL is 18-41-2 ATS in their last 61 games in September.
--Under is 5-0 in STL last 5 versus NFC.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 46 times, while the favorite covered the spread 42 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 52 times, while the underdog won straight up 37 times. 54 games went over the total, while 47 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 89 times, while the underdog covered first half line 85 times. *No EDGE. 83 games went under first half total, while 77 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
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#467 CLEVELAND @ #468 PITTSBURGH
TV: 1:00 PM EST, CBS Sports
Line: Steelers -6.5, Total: 41.5
Johnny Manziel is expected to be a spectator for the resumption of the NFL's most one-sided rivalry as the Pittsburgh Steelers open the season by hosting the Cleveland Browns on Sunday. The AFC North rivals have generated a lot of publicity during the offseason - much of it unwanted - but the focus for Pittsburgh is getting back to the postseason following consecutive 8-8 seasons. Playing the Browns should be a good for step for the Steelers, who have won 19 of the last 21 meetings.
Even though Ben Roethlisberger is 17-1 against Cleveland since 2004, the quarterback focus will be on the other sideline after Brian Hoyer beat out former Heisman Trophy winner Manziel for the starting job. Former Buffalo defensive coordinator Mike Pettine is the fourth coach in three years for the Browns, who will be without star receiver Josh Gordon after he was suspended one year for violating the league's substance-abuse policy. Pittsburgh also had an unwanted distraction when running backs Le'Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount were arrested on marijuana possession charges two weeks ago.
•ABOUT THE BROWNS (4-12, 4th AFC North): Hoyer appeared to solidify a revolving door at quarterback before suffering a season-ending knee injury in his third start, but he hardly distinguished himself in the preseason and will be without the mercurial Gordon, who led the league in receiving yards despite missing two games. Former Dallas wideout Miles Austin and Andrew Hawkins will start at receiver and tight end Jordan Cameron will likely be the top target for Hoyer, but the hope is that free-agent signee Ben Tate will be a major upgrade for an abysmal ground game that ranked among the league's bottom five last season. Star cornerback Joe Haden and ex-Arizona linebacker Karlos Dansby anchor a defense that surrendered a ton of points (25.4 per game) but ranked ninth in total yards (332.4).
•ABOUT THE STEELERS (8-8, tie 2nd AFC North): With Bell coming off a solid rookie campaign and sledgehammer back Blount added to the mix, it could signal a move toward the smash-mouth style that has been the hallmark of Pittsburgh's record six Super Bowl titles. Wide receiver Antonio Brown is coming off a breakout season in which he set a franchise record with 1,499 receiving yards while hauling in 110 receptions from Roethlisberger, who is on the heels of his third 4,000-yard campaign. Tight end Heath Miller is a favorite target of Roethlisberger but the team needs wideout Markus Wheaton to be a major contributor after catching only six passes as a rookie. Linebacker Ryan Shazier, a first-round pick out of Ohio State, is among four new starters for a defense that managed only 34 sacks last season.
•PREGAME NOTES: Pittsburgh has won 10 straight at home versus Cleveland.... Cameron had 16 catches for 157 yards and four touchdowns in Hoyer's two full games as a starter last season.... The Steelers won six of their final eight games last season, including a pair of double-digit victories over the Browns.... Pittsburgh is 46-24 against the spread as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
•KEY STATS
--PITTSBURGH is 10-2 UNDER (+7.8 Units) as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 20.3, OPPONENT 15.8.
--PITTSBURGH is 94-58 against the 1rst half line (+30.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points vs. the first half line since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 12.7, OPPONENT 7.6.
•COACHING TRENDS
--MIKE TOMLIN is 26-16 ATS (+8.4 Units) versus division opponents as the coach of PITTSBURGH.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 21.9, OPPONENT 14.8.
--MIKE TOMLIN is 17-7 UNDER (+9.3 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points as the coach of PITTSBURGH.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 20.6, OPPONENT 15.5.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--PITTSBURGH is 22-17 against the spread versus CLEVELAND since 1992.
--PITTSBURGH is 33-7 straight up against CLEVELAND since 1992.
--21 of 40 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--PITTSBURGH is 25-15 versus the first half line when playing against CLEVELAND since 1992.
--22 of 40 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
--Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
--Browns are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Pittsburgh.
•RECENT TRENDS
--CLE is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 versus AFC.
--CLE is 2-12-1 ATS in their last 15 games in Week #1.
--Under is 5-1 in CLE last 6 games in September.
--PIT is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 versus AFC North.
--PIT is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in Week #1.
--PIT is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 51 times, while the favorite covered the spread 38 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 73 times, while the underdog won straight up 21 times. 51 games went under the total, while 47 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 77 times, while the favorite covered first half line 76 times. *No EDGE. 105 games went under first half total, while 84 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
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#469 JACKSONVILLE @ #470 PHILADELPHIA
TV: 1:00 PM EST, CBS Sports
Line: Eagles -10, Total: 52
After a successful first season under coach Chip Kelly, the Philadelphia Eagles hope to open their 2014 campaign with a victory when they host the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. Kelly introduced his dynamic offensive schemes to the NFL a season ago and the bountiful results included a team-record 442 points, a 27-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio for Nick Foles and a franchise-high 1,607 rushing yards by LeSean McCoy. "Obviously it's year two and we have a bunch of guys that have been around us and we have been around them, so you feel like you're a little bit closer in terms of what we are trying to get accomplished," Kelly said. "But you're excited to get going here. (These games) are for real. They count."
The Jaguars have a second-year coach of their own in Gus Bradley, who guided the team to a 4-4 finish after an 0-8 start. Blake Bortles was drafted No. 3 overall to be the quarterback of the future, but for now he'll sit and watch veteran Chad Henne, who had more interceptions (14) than touchdown passes (13) a season ago. "Every game to us is a championship game," said Henne, "so I feel like Week #1 is just like Week #13 or the last game of the season. We definitely want to get off on the right start, play well and get some things accomplished."
•ABOUT THE JAGUARS (2013: 4-12, 3rd AFC South): The Jaguars play three of their first four games on the road, although they went 3-5 away from home a season ago while winning just one of their eight games at EverBank Field. Their offense likely will feature a heavy dose of Toby Gerhart, who was signed as a free agent this spring after averaging 7.9 yards per carry as Adrian Peterson's backup with the Vikings last season. In addition to Gerhart, Jacksonville also brought in several veterans on the defensive side of the ball, including linemen Red Bryant and Chris Clemons from the defending champion Seahawks and Ziggy Hood from the Steelers.
•ABOUT THE EAGLES (2013: 10-6, 1st NFC East): In terms of personnel, the Eagles' most notable change was the loss of wide receiver DeSean Jackson, who was waived by the team primarily for off-the-field reasons. Helping to make up for Jackson's absence will be Jeremy Maclin, who missed all of last season with a knee injury, and rookie second-round pick Jordan Matthews, who had an impressive training camp and preseason. The Philadelphia defense allowed no more than 22 points in 11 of its last 12 regular-season games, but the special teams had an up-and-down season and now rookie Cody Parkey takes over at kicker for the inconsistent Alex Henery.
•PREGAME NOTES: Foles led the National Football League in passer rating (119.2) in 2013 and finished with the best touchdown-to-interception ratio in league history.... Jacksonville won the first three meetings between the teams before falling to Philadelphia 28-3 back in September 2010.... The Jaguars have questions at the receiver position with Justin Blackmon suspended indefinitely, Ace Sanders suspended for four games and Cecil Shorts III and Allen Robinson both battling hamstring injuries.
•KEY STATS
--PHILADELPHIA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 22.2, OPPONENT 24.1.
--PHILADELPHIA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 17.4, OPPONENT 23.4.
--PHILADELPHIA is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) the 1rst half total as a favorite versus the 1rst half line over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 10.7, OPPONENT 8.7.
--PHILADELPHIA is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) the 1rst half total as a home favorite versus the 1rst half line over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 9.0, OPPONENT 7.6.
--PHILADELPHIA is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) the 1rst half total in a home game where the first half total is 22.5 or higher over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 9.0, OPPONENT 7.6.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--JACKSONVILLE is 3-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA since 1992.
--JACKSONVILLE is 3-1 straight up against PHILADELPHIA since 1992.
--2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--JACKSONVILLE is 3-1 versus the first half line when playing against PHILADELPHIA since 1992.
--3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
•RECENT TRENDS
--JAC is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
--JAC is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games in Week #1.
--Under is 6-1 in JAC last 7 games in September.
--PHI is 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 home games.
--PHI is 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games in September.
--Under is 6-2 in PHI last 8 home games.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 17 times, while the underdog covered the spread 10 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 22 times, while the underdog won straight up 5 times. 4 games went over the total, while 4 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 35 times, while the underdog covered first half line 25 times. *No EDGE. 6 games went under first half total, while 4 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (JACKSONVILLE) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, bad team from last season (25% to 40%) playing a team that had a winning record last year.
(24-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.8%, +18.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (13-17 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 5.9
The average score in these games was: Team 22.4, Opponent 23.2 (Average point differential = -0.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 13 (43.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (55-23).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (153-111).
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#471 OAKLAND @ #472 NY JETS
TV: 1:00 PM EST, CBS Sports
Line: Jets -5.5, Total: 40.5
The Oakland Raiders need to only gaze across the field if they're looking to entertain positive thoughts about the prospect of opening the season with a rookie starting quarterback. With second-round pick Derek Carr in the driver's seat, the Raiders face second-year signal caller Geno Smith and the host New York Jets on Sunday afternoon. Positive results have been few and far between for Oakland, which wrapped up its second straight 4-12 campaign in 2013 and hasn't enjoyed a winning season since it ventured to Super Bowl XXXVII in 2002 before falling to Tampa Bay.
While Carr was handed the keys with the Raiders, Smith (franchise rookie QB-record six rushing TDs) was granted the opportunity after an injury to incumbent Mark Sanchez in 2013 and rode a late surge to conclude an 8-8 season for New York. Smith began his string of three wins in his last four outings by throwing for one touchdown and rushing for another in a 37-27 victory over Oakland on Dec. 8. The offseason acquisitions of Denver wideout Eric Decker (career-high 87 receptions, 1,288 yards, 11 touchdowns) and Tennessee running back Chris Johnson (1,077 yards, seven TDs) could be just the jolt the Jets need to ignite their 25th-ranked offense (318.1 yards per game).
•ABOUT THE RAIDERS (2013: 4-12, 4th AFC West): Maurice Jones-Drew intends to show that there is plenty of tread on the tires after spending his career as the workhorse in Jacksonville. The 29-year-old Jones-Drew, who topped ,000 yards on three occasions, is expected to join talented but injury-plagued Darren McFadden as Oakland looks to improve upon its 12th-ranked rushing game. Carr would be wise to build a rapport with former Green Bay wideout James Jones, who attempts to regain the form of his 2012 season when he led the NFL with 14 touchdown receptions.
•ABOUT THE JETS (2013: 8-8, 2nd AFC East): While the offense is in flux, the defensive secondary has been the cause of both concern and comedy on many a New York sports talk show. Confident Dee Milliner boldly proclaimed himself the league's best cornerback, but a high-ankle sprain will likely render the second-year player a spectator on Sunday. Potential starter Dimitri Patterson was nowhere to be found for 48 hours prior to a preseason game before being cut, leaving Darrin Walls and Antonio Allen to see playing time at cornerback with veteran Antonio Cromartie now in Arizona.
•PREGAME NOTES: New York DE Muhammad Wilkerson registered a career-high 10.5 sacks to lead the team last season.... Oakland LB Khalil Mack, who was the fifth overall pick of the 2014 draft, joins a revamped unit featuring former New York Giants DE Justin Tuck and Pittsburgh LB LaMarr Woodley.... The Raiders have lost 13 straight games in the Eastern time zone.... Johnson is out to prove he can still be an elite running back after topping 1,000 yards in each of his six seasons with Tennessee.
•KEY STATS
--OAKLAND is 42-24 against the 1rst half line (+15.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 points or less versus the 1rst half line since 1992.
The average score was OAKLAND 11.0, OPPONENT 10.9.
--NY JETS are 26-13 UNDER (+11.7 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
The average score was NY JETS 20.4, OPPONENT 14.6.
--NY JETS are 6-17 against the 1rst half line (-12.7 Units) in all games where the first half total is between 18 and 21 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NY JETS 7.6, OPPONENT 11.4.
--NY JETS are 30-10 UNDER (+19.0 Units) the 1rst half total as a home favorite of 2 to 3.5 points vs. the 1rst half line since 1992.
The average score was NY JETS 10.4, OPPONENT 6.5.
•COACHING TRENDS
--REX RYAN is 38-24 OVER (+11.6 Units) against conference opponents as the coach of NY JETS.
The average score was NY JETS 21.4, OPPONENT 20.6.
--REX RYAN is 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) the 1rst half total as a home favorite of 2 to 3.5 points versus the 1rst half line as the coach of NY JETS.
The average score was NY JETS 7.3, OPPONENT 7.0.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--OAKLAND is 9-6 against the spread versus NY JETS since 1992.
--OAKLAND is 10-7 straight up against NY JETS since 1992.
--11 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--NY JETS is 8-8 versus the first half line when playing against OAKLAND since 1992.
--9 of 17 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Home team is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--OAK is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 versus AFC.
--Under is 11-5-1 in OAK last 17 versus AFC.
--Over is 5-2 in OAK last 7 games in Week #1.
--4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
--3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
--Under is 4-1 in Jets last 5 vs. AFC.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 54 times, while the favorite covered the spread 38 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 70 times, while the underdog won straight up 27 times. 45 games went over the total, while 35 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 102 times, while the favorite covered first half line 93 times. *No EDGE. 104 games went under first half total, while 90 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
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#473 CINCINNATI @ #474 BALTIMORE
TV: 1:00 PM EST, CBS Sports
Line: Ravens -1.5, Total: 43
The Baltimore Ravens look to put a disappointing 2013 behind them when they open the season Sunday with an AFC North Division matchup against the visiting Cincinnati Bengals. The Ravens dropped to a disappointing 8-8 last season after winning the Super Bowl in 2012 and, to make matters worse, star running back Ray Rice got suspended for the first two games after an ugly offseason domestic violence incident in a hotel elevator with his then-fiancee that grabbed the attention of the nation. "I hate what happened," Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh said. "What happened was wrong - flat out. "I'm proud of him for the way he's handled it, I'm disappointed in what happened, but you go forward. You go forward. And that's what we're going to do as a football team."
All eyes in Cincinnati this season will be on quarterback Andy Dalton, who signed a $115 million extension despite inconsistent play in the regular season and a postseason record of 0-3. His playoff passer rating of 56.2 (1 TD, 6 INTs) is the worst mark since Jay Fiedler posted a 40.1 rating for the Miami Dolphins in three games from 2000-01. Cincinnati will be without star defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer, who is now the head coach of the Minnesota Vikings, but tackle Geno Atkins, coming off a torn ACL last October, returns to bolster a stout defense.
•ABOUT THE BENGALS (2013: 11-5, 1st AFC North): Despite becoming the first Bengals quarterback to lead the club to the playoffs in three consecutive seasons and setting franchise records last season with 4,293 yards and 33 touchdowns, Dalton posted a passer rating under 65 on five occasions - fourth most in the NFL. Dalton will again have talented wide receiver A.J. Green as his main big-play threat, but fleet-footed running back Giovani Bernard and his 1,209 scrimmage yards (third among NFL rookies in '13) will be on the field much more since the release of BenJarvus Green-Ellis. With a defense that ranked third in yards allowed (305.5 per game) and fifth in points (19.1) while showcasing the league's leading tackler in linebacker Vontaze Burfict, the offense should get the ball plenty.
•ABOUT THE RAVENS (2013: 8-8, tie 2nd AFC North): Under new offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak, quarterback Joe Flacco will concentrate more on shorter routes than the long balls he's known for. The hope is the new approach will help a questionable offensive line protect the quarterback and take pressure off a running attack that averaged a league-worst 3.1 yards per carry last season - lowest in the NFL since San Diego averaged 3.0 yards in 2000. Baltimore's defense ranked 12th last season in both points and yards allowed but the rookie additions of linebacker C.J. Mosley and tackle Timmy Jernigan will provide help to tackle Haloti Ngata and linebackers Terrell Suggs and Daryl Smith.
•PREGAME NOTES: Since joining the National Football League in 2011, Green has 260 catches, most by any player in NFL history over his first three seasons.... Flacco has an 11-0 career home record in September, tied with Jay Schroeder for best among quarterbacks in the Super Bowl era.... Ravens wide-receiver Steve Smith departed Carolina after 13 seasons as the franchise's all-time leader with 836 receptions, 75 TDs and 12,197 yards.... The Bengals are 61-89 against the spread versus division opponents, and 61-91 ATS in the first half of the season since 1992.
•KEY STATS
--BALTIMORE is 72-36 against the 1rst half line (+32.4 Units) as a home favorite versus the 1rst half line since 1992.
The average score was BALTIMORE 12.8, OPPONENT 6.5.
--BALTIMORE is 48-22 against the 1rst half line (+23.8 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 points or less versus the 1rst half line since 1992.
The average score was BALTIMORE 11.9, OPPONENT 7.1.
•COACHING TRENDS
--MARVIN LEWIS is 26-15 OVER (+9.5 Units) in road games in the first half of the season as the coach of CINCINNATI.
The average score was CINCINNATI 22.6, OPPONENT 23.7.
--JOHN HARBAUGH is 32-10 against the 1rst half line (+21.0 Units) as a home favorite versus the 1rst half line as the coach of BALTIMORE.
The average score was BALTIMORE 13.7, OPPONENT 6.8.
--JOHN HARBAUGH is 20-4 against the 1rst half line (+15.6 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 points or less versus the 1rst half line as the coach of BALTIMORE.
The average score was BALTIMORE 12.2, OPPONENT 6.6.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--BALTIMORE is 18-17 against the spread versus CINCINNATI since 1992.
--BALTIMORE is 20-16 straight up against CINCINNATI since 1992.
--20 of 36 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--BALTIMORE is 19-17 versus the first half line when playing against CINCINNATI since 1992.
--18 of 36 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Baltimore.
--Bengals are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 meetings in Baltimore.
--Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
--Favorite is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--CIN is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week #1.
--CIN is 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
--Over is 4-0 in CIN last 4 games in Week #1.
--BAL is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 versus AFC North.
--BAL is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week #1.
--Over is 4-1 in BAL last 5 games in Week #1.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 41 times, while the favorite covered the spread 11 times. *EDGE against the spread =CINCINNATI. In past games, the underdog won the game straight up 34 times, while the favorite won the game straight up 18 times. 68 games went under the total, while 19 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 60 times, while the favorite covered first half line 38 times. *No EDGE. 90 games went under first half total, while 53 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =UNDER.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Under - Home teams against the 1rst half total (BALTIMORE) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, average team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games.
(43-17 since 1983.) (71.7%, +24.3 units. Rating = 2*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 20.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 9.6, Opponent 9.1 (Total first half points scored = 18.8)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (7-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (12-7).
________________________________________________
#475 BUFFALO @ #476 CHICAGO
TV: 1:00 PM ET, FOX Sports
Line: Bears -6.5, Total: 47.5
Two teams that have experienced trouble making the postseason square off Sunday afternoon when the Chicago Bears host the Buffalo Bills. Chicago has missed the playoffs in six of the last seven seasons while Buffalo hasn’t been involved in the postseason since 1999. The Bears are again relying on quarterback Jay Cutler to get them over the hump while the Bills are hoping to see improvement from second-year quarterback EJ Manuel.
Manuel was surprisingly chosen with the 16th overall pick in the 2013 NFL draft and displayed growing pains at times and promise on other occasions. Cutler has long been an enigma and was limited to 11 games last season due to groin and ankle injuries. Chicago’s offense was potent last season but the defense was easy to move the ball against and one of the club’s offseason additions to plug the leaks was defensive end Jared Allen.
•ABOUT THE BILLS (6-10, fourth-place AFC East): Running back C.J. Spiller (933 yards) will also open the season as the team’s main kickoff returner and coach Doug Marrone is on record that Spiller will receive 20-plus offensive touches per game. “I think with the right touches, yes, and where they come from,” Marrone told reporters. “Every which way you can get him the ball, (a guy) who is an explosive playmaker, yes.” Buffalo doesn’t lack for pass rushers after leading the AFC with 57 sacks last season, led by end Mario Williams (13), tackle Kyle Williams (10.5) and end Jerry Hughes (10).
•ABOUT THE BEARS (8-8, second-place NFC Central): Cutler passed for 19 touchdowns against 12 interceptions in his abbreviated season as running back Matt Forte (1,339 yards, nine rushing TDs) and receiver Brandon Marshall (100 receptions for 1,295 yards and 12 scores) were Chicago’s top offensive players. “We’ve got to make sure that we stay focused and treat every day like it’s the first day,” Cutler told reporters. “But there’s definitely a calmness, I think, in our huddle, knowing we’ve been through a lot of situations. We’ve worked together and everyone has a good feel.” Cornerback Charles Tillman is the lone NFL player since 2003 to have more than 30 interceptions and 30 forced fumbles – he has 36 of the former and 42 of the latter.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Bears are 5-0 at home against Buffalo, winning the games by a combined 135-39.... Buffalo wide-receiver Sammy Watkins, the No. 4 overall pick, is expected to play despite a rib injury.... Chicago S Chris Conte (concussion) was cleared to play on Thursday.... The Bills are 3-11 against the spread as a road underdog over the last three seasons.... Chicago improved from 29th to fifth in passing and 28th to No. 8 in total offense under Trestman, even with Josh McCown appearing in eight games and starting five due to Cutler's injuries.
•KEY STATS
--CHICAGO is 71-44 OVER (+22.6 Units) as a home favorite since 1992.
The average score was CHICAGO 23.6, OPPONENT 19.3.
--CHICAGO is 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) the 1rst half total as a favorite versus the 1rst half line over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 17.9, OPPONENT 16.8.
--CHICAGO is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 17.0, OPPONENT 19.0.
•COACHING TRENDS
--MARK TRESTMAN is 12-4 OVER (+7.6 Units) in all games as the coach of CHICAGO.
The average score was CHICAGO 27.8, OPPONENT 29.9.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--CHICAGO is 3-2 against the spread versus BUFFALO since 1992.
--CHICAGO is 4-2 straight up against BUFFALO since 1992.
--4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--CHICAGO is 4-2 versus the first half line when playing against BUFFALO since 1992.
--3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Home team is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--BUF is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games in Week #1.
--BUF is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
--Under is 11-4 in BUF last 15 games in Week #1.
--CHI is 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.
--Under is 7-3 in CHI last 10 games in Week #1.
--Over is 4-0 in CHI last 4 games in September.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 34 times, while the favorite covered the spread 28 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 46 times, while the underdog won straight up 21 times. 30 games went over the total, while 25 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 59 times, while the underdog covered first half line 45 times. *No EDGE. 41 games went over first half total, while 39 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
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#477 WASHINGTON @ #478 HOUSTON
TV: 1:00 PM EST, FOX Sports
Line: Texans -3, Total: 44.5
The Houston Texans and Washington Redskins each entered the 2013 season with playoff aspirations, but fast-forward to December and the teams combined for a woeful 5-27 record. The Texans landed the first pick in the NFL draft and the Redskins would have picked second had they not traded that choice in the prior year's deal that brought Robert Griffin III to Washington. With their dreadful 2013 campaigns firmly in the rear-view mirror, Houston hosts Washington on Sunday in a matchup of teams dreaming of a resurgent campaign.
The Texans have question marks, of course, but their pass rush should be ferocious with former Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt coming off one end and No. 1 overall pick Jadeveon Clowney charging from the other. That pressure should make for an interesting season debut for Griffin, the league's Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2012 who endured a sophomore slump a season ago. Both teams will be introducing new head coaches as well, with Jay Gruden taking over in Washington and Bill O'Brien roaming the sidelines for Houston.
•ABOUT THE REDSKINS (2013: 3-13, 4th NFC East): After tearing his ACL at the end of his rookie year, Griffin dealt with nagging injuries last season and watched his passer rating dip from 102.4 to 82.2. The passing game should be dynamic, if Griffin is healthy, with targets including Pierre Garcon (NFL-high 113 catches in 2013), newcomer DeSean Jackson (career highs of 82 catches for 1,332 yards for Philadelphia last season) and promising tight end Jordan Reed (45 catches, 499 yards as a rookie). As for the running game featuring Alfred Morris (2,888 yards, 20 TDs over his first two seasons), Griffin said, "I think that's the key to success anytime if we do what we want to do."
•ABOUT THE TEXANS (2013: 2-14, 4th AFC South): The Texans begin their season with five straight games - and seven of their first eight - against teams that missed the postseason in 2013. Houston has moved on from Matt Schaub in favor of fellow veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick, whose receiving options include seven-time Pro Bowler Andre Johnson (109 catches for 1,407 yards in 2013) and second-year wideout DeAndre Hopkins, who hauled in 52 passes for 802 yards as a rookie. Veteran Arian Foster returns in the backfield, but he is coming off back surgery and a subpar campaign in which he managed only 542 yards and one TD in eight games and did not rush for more than 23 yards on any carry.
•PREGAME NOTES: Griffin had 489 rushing yards and no touchdowns on the ground a season ago after posting 815 rushing yards and seven TDs as a rookie.... Despite Griffin's roller-coaster campaign, Garcon caught at least five balls in every game in 2013.... This game marks the return of Houston LB Brian Cushing, a former Pro Bowler who has played in a total of 12 games the last two seasons due to an ACL tear and a broken leg.... For 11 straight seasons a team has gone from worst to first in the NFC East.
•KEY STATS
--WASHINGTON is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total in the first month of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 12.9, OPPONENT 17.6.
--HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 20.5, OPPONENT 26.3.
--HOUSTON is 38-21 OVER (+14.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
The average score was HOUSTON 22.9, OPPONENT 21.7.
--HOUSTON is 0-6 against the 1rst half line (-6.6 Units) as a favorite versus the 1rst half line over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 7.8, OPPONENT 14.8.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--WASHINGTON is 2-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON since 1992.
--WASHINGTON is 2-1 straight up against HOUSTON since 1992.
--2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--WASHINGTON is 3-0 versus the first half line when playing against HOUSTON since 1992.
--3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
•RECENT TRENDS
--WAS is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week #1.
--WAS is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
--Over is 4-1 in WAS last 5 games in Week #1.
--HOU is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games.
--HOU is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in September.
--Over is 5-1 in HOU last 6 games in September.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 51 times, while the favorite covered the spread 31 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 56 times, while the underdog won straight up 30 times. 35 games went under the total, while 24 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 92 times, while the favorite covered first half line 77 times. *No EDGE. 88 games went under first half total, while 65 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
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#479 TENNESSEE @ #480 KANSAS CITY
TV: 1:00 PM EST, CBS Sports
Line: Chiefs -3, Total: 43.5
Alex Smith has a big new contract and Kansas City is banking that he will eventually lead the Chiefs to some big wins. Smith recently signed a four-year deal worth $68 million and that will only ramp up the expectations as Kansas City opens its season against the visiting Tennessee Titans on Sunday afternoon. The Chiefs started 9-0 in 2013 before declining through a 2-5 stretch and watched a 28-point third-quarter lead slip away in a 45-44 playoff loss against Indianapolis.
Tennessee hasn't been to the postseason since 2008 and is hoping the hiring of new coach Ken Whisenhunt will lead to a turnaround. Whisenhunt once guided the Arizona Cardinals to a Super Bowl appearance and his presence could also have a profound effect on injury-prone quarterback Jake Locker. The Titans have also shed themselves of running back Chris Johnson, who topped 2,000 yards rushing in 2009 before his production began to decline.
•ABOUT THE TITANS (7-9, 2nd AFC South): Locker (1,256 yards, eight touchdowns) was 4-3 as a starter in 2013 before going down with a season-ending right foot injury. Locker, who has missed 14 of 32 starts, has a solid target in wideout Kendall Wright (94 receptions, 1,079 yards) while Shonn Greene and rookie Bishop Sankey are expected to share the rushing duties. The defense is led by standout Jurrell Casey, who had 10.5 sacks last season, the second most in franchise history by a defensive tackle behind Ray Childress (13 in 1992).
•ABOUT THE CHIEFS (11-5, 2nd AFC West): Kansas City features one of the top running backs in the NFL in Jamaal Charles, who led the AFC with 1,287 rushing last season and scored 19 touchdowns (12 rushing, seven receiving). Smith is 30-9-1 as a starter since the beginning of the 2011 campaign and has thrown 53 touchdowns against 17 interceptions during that span. Linebackers Tamba Hali and Justin Houston each had 11 sacks last season and the former has 46.5 over the past four seasons, second-most in the AFC behind Robert Mathis of the Colts.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Chiefs recorded a 26-17 win at Tennessee last season as Charles rushed for 108 yards and a touchdown.... Tennessee running-back Dexter McCluster spent the past four years with Kansas City and had three punt returns for touchdowns.... Kansas City wide-receiver Dwayne Bowe is suspended for the opener after violating the league’s substance-abuse policy, while Junior Hemingway (hip), A.J. Jenkins (concussion) and Kyle Williams (shoulder) are dealing with injuries.... This is the first meeting in Kansas City since a 34-14 Chiefs victory in December 2010.
•KEY STATS
--TENNESSEE is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
The average score was TENNESSEE 20.3, OPPONENT 26.7.
--TENNESSEE is 13-3 UNDER (+9.7 Units) the 1rst half total versus the first half line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TENNESSEE 9.3, OPPONENT 9.9.
--KANSAS CITY is 26-11 UNDER (+13.9 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.
The average score was KANSAS CITY 21.7, OPPONENT 17.3.
--KANSAS CITY is 29-13 UNDER (+14.7 Units) in the first two weeks of the season since 1992.
The average score was KANSAS CITY 19.1, OPPONENT 20.0.
--KANSAS CITY is 26-13 UNDER (+11.7 Units) in home games in the first month of the season since 1992.
The average score was KANSAS CITY 22.3, OPPONENT 17.6.
--KANSAS CITY is 49-28 UNDER (+18.1 Units) the 1rst half total in September games since 1992.
The average score was KANSAS CITY 9.9, OPPONENT 9.6.
•COACHING TRENDS
--KEN WHISENHUNT is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in the first two weeks of the season in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was WHISENHUNT 21.2, OPPONENT 19.3.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--KANSAS CITY is 7-5 against the spread versus TENNESSEE since 1992.
--KANSAS CITY is 7-5 straight up against TENNESSEE since 1992.
--9 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--TENNESSEE is 7-5 versus the first half line when playing against KANSAS CITY since 1992.
--8 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
--Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
--Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--TEN is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in Week #1.
--TEN is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games in September.
--Under is 6-1 in TEN last 7 games in Week #1.
--KC is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 versus AFC.
--KC is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games.
--Over is 5-1 in KC last 6 versus AFC.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 39 times, while the favorite covered the spread 22 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 36 times, while the underdog won straight up 30 times. 45 games went over the total, while 24 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 62 times, while the favorite covered first half line 53 times. *No EDGE. 66 games went over first half total, while 49 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Under - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 (KANSAS CITY) - poor passing defense from last season - allowed 230 or more passing yards/game, against a poor passing defense from last season - allowed a completion percentage of 60% or worse.
(83-43 over the last 10 seasons.) (65.9%, +35.7 units. Rating = 2*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 22.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 10.3, Opponent 10.7 (Total first half points scored = 21)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (41-20).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (55-29).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (149-100).
_______________________________________
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_____________________________________________
#481 NEW ENGLAND @ #482 MIAMI
TV: 1:00 PM EST, CBS Sports
Line: Patriots -3.5, Total: 46.5
The New England Patriots have taken 11 of the last 13 AFC East Division titles and the 2014 squad looks poised to make it 12 of 14. The Miami Dolphins, who host the Patriots in the season opener on Sunday, are just trying to put a rough 2013 season behind them and move forward with the focus on the field. The Dolphins were impressively competitive last season despite the locker room turmoil that surrounded Jonathan Martin and the offensive line, though it only resulted in a .500 record.
New England quarterback Tom Brady dealt with an almost entirely new corps of receivers in 2013 and still threw for 4,343 yards. Brady will have some continuity among his receivers in 2014, presumably including the return of Pro Bowl tight end Rob Gronkowski, who did not play in any of the four preseason games but declared himself ready to go for Week #1. Miami brought in new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor to speed up the offense and hopefully keep quarterback Ryan Tannehill off the turf.
•ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (2013: 12-4): New England is once again a popular pick to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl thanks to Brady’s familiarity with the receivers and a healthy defense that should benefit from the returns of nose tackle Vince Wilfork and linebacker Jerod Mayo. The defensive secondary has been an Achilles heel for the team in recent seasons, but the acquisition of Darrelle Revis gives the team its best cornerback since Ty Law and moves versatile players like Logan Ryan and Kyle Arrington into nickel and dime slots. “They do a lot of things very well,” Brady told reporters of the defense. “Very good secondary that’s tough, aggressive, jump a lot of routes. Our defense is tough to go against.”
•ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (2013: 8-8): The turmoil along the offensive line helped cause Tannehill to take a league-worst 58 sacks in 2013, but newcomers Brandon Albert and Ja’Waun James are around to beef up the tackle spots. Miami also imported running back Knowshon Moreno, who gashed the New England defense for 224 yards as a member of the Denver Broncos in a Nov. 24 meeting last season, to combine with Lamar Miller in the backfield. “I’m excited about the plan we have,” Tannehill told reporters. “I’ve said it over and over again, the guys that we have, just how we’re going to attack, not this week but the following weeks. it’s finally here.”
•PREGAME NOTES: Patriots coach Bill Belichick needs one win to become the sixth coach with 200 regular-season victories.... The Dolphins pulled out a 24-20 home victory over New England on Dec. 15 behind 312 yards and three touchdowns from Tannehill.... Brady is 17-7 with 42 touchdowns and 20 interceptions in his career against Miami.... Defensively, the Dolphins won't have lineman Dion Jordan, the No. 3 overall pick in the 2013 draft, for four games because of a PED suspension. Starting safety Reshad Jones will also miss the first four contests after failing a drug test.
•KEY STATS
--NEW ENGLAND is 45-27 ATS (+15.3 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 23.3, OPPONENT 19.0.
--NEW ENGLAND is 44-22 against the 1rst half line (+19.8 Units) as a road favorite of 3.5 points or less versus the 1rst half line since 1992.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 14.1, OPPONENT 8.8.
--NEW ENGLAND is 14-4 UNDER (+9.6 Units) the 1rst half total versus the first half line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 11.2, OPPONENT 9.4.
--NEW ENGLAND is 10-2 UNDER (+7.8 Units) the 1rst half total in all games where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 11.2, OPPONENT 7.4.
--MIAMI is 16-5 UNDER (+10.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 18.8, OPPONENT 19.3.
--MIAMI is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 16.3, OPPONENT 18.7.
•COACHING TRENDS
--BILL BELICHICK is 108-75 ATS (+25.5 Units) against conference opponents as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 26.8, OPPONENT 19.2.
--BILL BELICHICK is 37-15 against the 1rst half line (+20.5 Units) as a road favorite of 3.5 points or less versus the 1rst half line as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 14.9, OPPONENT 8.6.
--BILL BELICHICK is 72-42 against the 1rst half line (+25.8 Units) versus the 1rst half line in road games as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 13.4, OPPONENT 9.5.
--BILL BELICHICK is 12-3 against the 1rst half line (+8.7 Units) in road games in the first two weeks of the season as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 12.1, OPPONENT 7.7.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--NEW ENGLAND is 23-20 against the spread versus MIAMI since 1992.
--NEW ENGLAND is 25-20 straight up against MIAMI since 1992.
--23 of 44 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--NEW ENGLAND is 23-22 versus the first half line when playing against MIAMI since 1992.
--23 of 44 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
--Favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
--Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--NE is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games.
--NE is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
--Over is 12-5 in NE last 17 games in Week #1.
--MIA is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
--MIA is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
--Under is 6-1 in MIA last 7 games in Week #1.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 46 times, while the favorite covered the spread 39 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 50 times, while the underdog won straight up 37 times. 40 games went over the total, while 24 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 66 times, while the favorite covered first half line 61 times. *No EDGE. 56 games went over first half total, while 41 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 (MIAMI) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, average team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games.
(43-17 since 1983.) (71.7%, +24.3 units. Rating = 2*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 20.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 9.6, Opponent 9.1 (Total first half points scored = 18.8)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (7-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (12-7).
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#483 CAROLINA @ #484 TAMPA BAY
TV: 4:25 PM EST, FOX Sports
Line: Buccaneers -3, Total: 37.5
Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers will be hard-pressed to defend their NFC South title - and they get an early test from a division rival when they visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday afternoon. Carolina underwent a major roster overhaul on offense but the most pressing issue is the health of Newton, who is dealing with a hairline rib fracture and is listed as questionable. "I'm being optimistic about this whole thing and I have no other choice but to think that way," said Newton, who practiced fully Friday.
Changes also abound for the Buccaneers, who fired Greg Schiano following last season's dismal 4-12 record and brought in Lovie Smith after he was canned by the Chicago Bears despite a 10-6 campaign. Journeyman Josh McCown, who thrived as an injury replacement for Jay Cutler with the Bears last season, was signed in the offseason to take the reins at starting quarterback. Carolina ripped off 11 wins in its last 12 games last season and manhandled the Buccaneers twice by margins of 18 and 21 points.
•ABOUT THE PANTHERS (2013: 12-4, 1st NFC South): Newton, who did not throw a pass during the portion open to the media on Thursday, underwent offseason ankle surgery and also saw the departure of his top four wide receivers - including longtime standout Steve Smith. Newton has rushed for 28 touchdowns and 2,032 yards - the most by any QB in his first three seasons - but may be hindered in the running game by his injury. First-round draft pick Kelvin Benjamin and tight end Greg Olsen are Newton's top targets while the tandem of D'Angelo Williams and often-injured Jonathan Stewart pace the ground game. Carolina's defense ranked second in points (15.1) and yards (301.3) allowed while leading the league with 60 sacks, but defensive end Greg Hardy faces a midseason court date set for Nov. 17 - during the team's bye week for domestic violence charges.
•ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (2013: 4-12, tie 3rd NFC South): Tampa Bay's quickly went into a spiral a year ago with the benching and subsequent trade of starting quarterback Josh Freeman and a season-ending injury to running back Doug Martin. McCown posted a career-best passer rating (109.0) and has a trio of 6-foot-5 jumbo targets led by Vincent Jackson, who had a career-high 78 catches for 1,224 yards last season. The Buccaneers used their first two draft picks on wideout Mike Evans and tight end tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins and hope Martin can reprise his rookie campaign of 2012, when he rushed for 1,454 yards and 11 TDs. The defense features a pair of studs in Pro Bowl tackle Gerald McCoy (9.5 sacks) and linebacker Lavonte David, the only player in the league last season with more than 100 tackles, five sacks and five interceptions.
•PREGAME NOTES: Newton is 4-2 against Tampa Bay, accounting for 14 totals touchdowns in the wins while being held to one score in each of the two defeats.... Martin rushed for 233 yards in two games against Carolina in 2012.... Panthers LB Luke Kuechly was named the 2013 Defensive Player of the Year after amassing 156 tackles.... Losing Hardy, who led the Panthers with 15 sacks last season, would be a blow to the defense, but Carolina has some depth on the line. Second-year tackles Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short were solid on the interior as rookies in 2013, while end Charles Johnson is coming off an 11-sack season.
•KEY STATS
--CAROLINA is 82-54 UNDER (+22.6 Units) in the first half of the season since 1992.
The average score was CAROLINA 18.9, OPPONENT 20.2.
--CAROLINA is 71-43 against the 1rst half line (+23.7 Units) as a road underdog versus the 1rst half line since 1992.
The average score was CAROLINA 10.2, OPPONENT 10.9.
--CAROLINA is 23-8 against the 1rst half line (+14.2 Units) in road games in September games since 1992.
The average score was CAROLINA 9.9, OPPONENT 8.5.
--CAROLINA is 7-0 against the 1rst half line (+7.0 Units) in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CAROLINA 11.7, OPPONENT 3.3.
--TAMPA BAY is 32-11 UNDER (+19.9 Units) in the first two weeks of the season since 1992.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 16.6, OPPONENT 16.3.
--TAMPA BAY is 13-3 OVER (+9.7 Units) the 1rst half total versus the first half line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 12.8, OPPONENT 12.8.
--TAMPA BAY is 10-2 OVER (+7.8 Units) the 1rst half total against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 12.4, OPPONENT 13.8.
•COACHING TRENDS
--RON RIVERA is 10-2 OVER (+7.8 Units) the 1rst half total in all games where the first half total is between 18 and 21 as the coach of CAROLINA.
The average score was CAROLINA 13.4, OPPONENT 10.4.
--RON RIVERA is 14-4 OVER (+9.6 Units) the 1rst half total versus division opponents as the coach of CAROLINA.
The average score was CAROLINA 14.3, OPPONENT 12.0.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--CAROLINA is 17-10 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY since 1992.
--CAROLINA is 16-11 straight up against TAMPA BAY since 1992.
--15 of 27 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--CAROLINA is 18-9 versus the first half line when playing against TAMPA BAY since 1992.
--14 of 27 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
--Favorite is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
--Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Tampa Bay.
•RECENT TRENDS
--CAR is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 versus NFC.
--CAR is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 versus NFC South.
--Under is 7-0 in CAR last 7 versus NFC.
--TB is 13-29-1 ATS in their last 43 home games.
--TB is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
--Under is 4-0 in TB last 4 games in September.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 37 times, while the favorite covered the spread 26 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 37 times, while the underdog won straight up 29 times. 60 games went under the total, while 59 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 81 times, while the favorite covered first half line 55 times. *No EDGE. 106 games went under first half total, while 97 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
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#485 SAN FRANCISCO @ #486 DALLAS
TV: 4:25 PM EST, FOX Sports
Line: 49ers -4, Total: 41
Although their offense slumbered through much of the preseason, Colin Kaepernick expects the San Francisco 49ers to wake up just in time when they open the 2014 season against the host Dallas Cowboys on Sunday afternoon. The electric Kaepernick guided the 49ers to three consecutive NFC championship games - and was a tipped pass by Seattle's Richard Sherman removed from a second Super Bowl appearance in that stretch. Kaepernick looks to utilize both his rocket-launcher arm and gazelle-like legs as he tries to exploit a defense that yielded a league-worst 415.3 yards per contest in 2013.
San Francisco's bread and butter remains its ground game, and veteran Frank Gore continued to buck the running backs' version of Father Time by recording his franchise-best seventh 1,000-yard season last season. The 31-year-old could see sizable holes left by Dallas' offseason departures of DeMarcus Ware (Denver) and Jason Hatcher (Washington) as well as the absence of All-Pro linebacker Sean Lee (season-ending ACL injury). The glaring spotlight aside, the Cowboys have been the definition of mediocre with successive 8-8 records in each of the last three seasons.
•ABOUT THE 49ERS (2013: 12-4, 2nd NFC West): While Dallas has its own issues on defense, San Francisco will be without Aldon Smith as he serves a nine-game suspension for violations of the league's substance-abuse and personal-conduct policies. Defensive tackle Ray McDonald's availability is in jeopardy after he was arrested over an alleged domestic-violence incident last Sunday, but coach Jim Harbaugh stressed that due process needed to be heeded before any potential discipline takes place. As for positives, Pro Bowl linebackers Ahmad Brooks (career-best 8.5 sacks) and Patrick Willis (104 tackles) are more than capable of picking up the slack.
•ABOUT THE COWBOYS (2013: 8-8, 2nd NFC East): The much-maligned Tony Romo quieted (some?) critics by tossing 31 touchdown passes for the second time in three seasons, and the veteran doesn't see any cause for alarm following offseason back surgery. Injuries are nothing new for Romo, who overcame a broken rib against San Francisco in 2011 to throw for 345 yards and two touchdowns in Dallas' 27-24 overtime victory. Trusted target Dez Bryant (93 catches, 13 TDs) has seen his reception and touchdown totals increase in each of his four seasons in the league.
•PREGAME NOTES: San Francisco wide-receiver Michael Crabtree is nursing a calf injury after being sidelined for over two weeks with a hamstring ailment.... Dallas Pro Bowl RB DeMarco Murray rushed for a career-best 1,121 yards last season and accumulated 10 total touchdowns (nine rushing, one receiving).... The 49ers bolstered their receiving ranks in May by acquiring three-time 1,000-yard wide-receiver Stevie Johnson from Buffalo for a conditional 2015 fourth-round pick.
•KEY STATS
--SAN FRANCISCO is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as a road favorite of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 27.5, OPPONENT 13.6.
--SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 against the 1rst half line (+6.0 Units) as a road favorite versus the 1rst half line over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 14.0, OPPONENT 6.0.
--SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 against the 1rst half line (+6.0 Units) as a road favorite of 3.5 points or less versus the 1rst half line over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 14.0, OPPONENT 6.0.
--SAN FRANCISCO is 2-11 against the 1rst half line (-10.1 Units) in a road game where the first half total is 25 or higher since 1992.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 10.5, OPPONENT 16.3.
--SAN FRANCISCO is 13-3 UNDER (+9.7 Units) the 1rst half total in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 12.9, OPPONENT 6.1.
•COACHING TRENDS
--JIM HARBAUGH is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of SAN FRANCISCO.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 25.1, OPPONENT 14.0.
--JIM HARBAUGH is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in the first half of the season as the coach of SAN FRANCISCO.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 25.8, OPPONENT 15.4.
--JIM HARBAUGH is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) in the first two weeks of the season as the coach of SAN FRANCISCO.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 25.2, OPPONENT 23.7.
--JASON GARRETT is 16-26 ATS (-12.6 Units) against conference opponents as the coach of DALLAS.
The average score was DALLAS 24.7, OPPONENT 24.6.
--JASON GARRETT is 15-6 UNDER (+8.4 Units) the 1rst half total in the first half of the season as the coach of DALLAS.
The average score was DALLAS 10.7, OPPONENT 10.4.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--DALLAS is 6-6 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO since 1992.
--DALLAS is 8-6 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO since 1992.
--10 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--SAN FRANCISCO is 8-6 versus the first half line when playing against DALLAS since 1992.
--10 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings.
--Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Dallas.
--Underdog is 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
--Home team is 3-0-2 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--SF is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games.
--SF is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week #1.
--Over is 3-0-1 in SF last 4 games in Week #1.
--DAL is 6-13 ATS in their last 19 home games.
--DAL is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in Week #1.
--Over is 8-3 in DAL last 11 games in Week #1.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 41 times, while the underdog covered the spread 29 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 47 times, while the underdog won straight up 26 times. 12 games went under the total, while 10 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 75 times, while the underdog covered first half line 55 times. *No EDGE. 18 games went under first half total, while 6 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =UNDER.
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#487 INDIANAPOLIS @ #488 DENVER
TV: 8:30 PM EST, NBC
Line: Broncos -7.5, Total: 55.5
One of the main reasons Peyton Manning wound up in Denver will be on the opposing sideline when the Broncos kick off their season with a prime-time matchup against Andrew Luck and the visiting Indianapolis Colts on Sunday Night Football. Manning has restored the luster to Denver after he was released in 2012 following neck surgery that caused him to miss the previous season. The league's only five-time MVP led the Broncos to consecutive 13-3 campaigns and a Super Bowl berth last season.
Luck has lived up to his billing as the No. 1 overall pick, guiding Indianapolis to back-to-back 11-win seasons and a pair of postseason appearances, but he dismisses talk of being mentioned as a worthy successor to Manning. "To be honest, even since Day 1 here, it hasn't been an issue. I never came in saying, 'Oh, I have to replace a legend, one of the greatest of all-time,'" Luck said. Colts owner Jim Irsay, who made the decision to jettison Manning in order to draft Luck, will not be in attendance as he serves the first contest of a six-game suspension for violating the league's personal-conduct policy.
•ABOUT THE COLTS (2013: 11-5, 1st AFC South): Luck has tossed 23 scoring passes in each of his first two years and added to his burgeoning legend as the master of the comeback by rallying Indianapolis from 28 points down in a playoff victory over Kansas City last season. He will have a potent receiving corps with the signing of Hakeem Nicks and the return from injury of veteran Reggie Wayne to join T.Y. Hilton, who blossomed last season with 82 catches for 1,083 yards. The Colts made a bold move last season by trading a No. 1 draft pick for running back Trent Richardson, but he flamed out and averaged only 2.9 yards per carry. Indy's defense will face an added burden against Manning due to the absence of linebacker Robert Mathis, who is serving a four-game suspension after leading the league with 19.5 sacks last season.
•ABOUT THE BRONCOS (2013: 13-3, 1st AFC West): Denver was a juggernaut last season, becoming the first team in league history to feature five players with at least 10 touchdowns and setting an NFL record with 606 points. Manning shattered single-season league marks with 55 touchdown passes and 5,477 yards, but he'll have to get used to a different cast of characters with the free-agent departures of wide receiver Eric Decker and running back Knowshon Moreno along with a four-game suspension to wideout Wes Welker for violating the substance-abuse policy. The cupboard is hardly bare, with Demaryius Thomas coming off consecutive 1,400-yard receiving seasons and tight end Julius Thomas hauling in 12 TD passes. Montee Ball takes over for Moreno but the biggest changes come on defense with the additions of sack specialist DeMarcus Ware and cornerbacks Aqib Talib and T.J. Ward.
•PREGAME NOTES: Manning needs 18 touchdown passes to surpass Brett Favre (508) for the most in National Football League history.... Wayne, who suffered a torn ACL in last season's matchup versus Denver, is 19 catches shy of passing Isaac Bruce (1,024) for seventh on the all-time list.... Denver has an league-best 40-13-1 record in home openings, including winning 17 of its last 20.... Irsay has been banned from contact with the Colts for the first six games of the season and was fined $500,000 stemming from a DWI he received in March.
•KEY STATS
--INDIANAPOLIS is 16-5 OVER (+10.5 Units) as a road underdog of 7.5 to 10 points since 1992.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 17.9, OPPONENT 29.8.
--INDIANAPOLIS is 5-15 against the 1rst half line (-11.5 Units) as an underdog versus the 1rst half line over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 10.7, OPPONENT 16.6.
--INDIANAPOLIS is 2-11 against the 1rst half line (-10.1 Units) as a road underdog versus the 1rst half line over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 8.8, OPPONENT 16.8.
--DENVER is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 33.7, OPPONENT 19.1.
--DENVER is 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 42.9, OPPONENT 27.3.
•COACHING TRENDS
--JOHN FOX is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of DENVER.
The average score was DENVER 34.1, OPPONENT 21.6.
--JOHN FOX is 16-5 OVER (+10.5 Units) in the first half of the season as the coach of DENVER.
The average score was DENVER 30.9, OPPONENT 25.9.
--JOHN FOX is 24-13 UNDER (+9.7 Units) the 1rst half total as a favorite versus the 1rst half line as the coach of DENVER.
The average score was DENVER 13.5, OPPONENT 9.4.
--JOHN FOX is 47-27 UNDER (+17.3 Units) the 1rst half total as a home favorite versus the 1rst half line in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was FOX 11.3, OPPONENT 8.3.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--INDIANAPOLIS is 9-3 against the spread versus DENVER since 1992.
--INDIANAPOLIS is 9-3 straight up against DENVER since 1992.
--9 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--INDIANAPOLIS is 6-4 versus the first half line when playing against DENVER since 1992.
--8 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
-- Over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.
--Colts are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
--Favorite is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
--Home team is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--IND is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 versus AFC.
--IND is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games in Week #1.
--Under is 5-1 in IND last 6 games in September.
--DEN is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
--DEN is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 versus AFC.
--Over is 4-0 in DEN last 4 games in Week #1.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 23 times, while the underdog covered the spread 18 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 32 times, while the underdog won straight up 10 times. 1 games went over the total, while 0 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 50 times, while the underdog covered first half line 24 times. *EDGE against first half line =DENVER. 2 games went over first half total, while 1 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
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