STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NFL PRESEASON REPORT
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
________________________________________
Welcome to the 2014 preseason edition of StatSystemsSports.net Football Newsletter. Whether you are a football fundamentalist, a technical buff or a stats lover, we have it all for you under one cover in our Weekly National Football League and NCAA College Football Reports, where each week through the Super Bowl we help you get every edge imaginable!
In each issue our Experts share with you a personal 'BETCHA DIDN'T KNOW' handicapping article as they reveal an insider's approach to the art of football handicapping. Along with Best Bets, Awesome Angles, Situational and Matchup Power Trends, Over/Under Records and Trends, along with our Famous Situation Analysis. Also, be sure to check out our 'QUICK HITS' featuring a quick-read into key stats and trends on the weekly football card – plus the Incredible Stat Of the Week. It's no wonder whenever the Wise Guys in Vegas speak of StatSystems Sports, they say it's "Where The Smart Money Is."
Take the time to ensure your success this football season by subscribing to the 2014 StatSystems Sports Weekly NFL & NCAACF Reports. It’s never been easier: you can call us @ 570-828-4091 for instant service. We hope you like what you see and decide to join us for ‘The Best Football Weekly Report On The Planet’ this year!
“Remember, don't make a move without it, you'll be real glad you did" Stan!
__________________________________________________
NFL Betting News and Notes - Preseason
Thinking about investing in the National Football League season win-totals market this year? If so, our best advice here at StatSystems Sports to you is to make your approach with a different mind-set – from a Las Vegas perspective. In other words, out with the old and in with the new.
•Strength Of Schedule
At first glance, most players will initially look at a team’s projected strength of schedule – the key word here being “projected” – when sizing up a team’s win potential for the year. The most common formula in determining strength of schedule is adding the win-loss record of each opponent from the previous season.
For instance: Oakland’s foes for the 2014 season combined to go 160-116 last year for a combined win percentage of .560, whereas Indianapolis’ opponents this season were 113-150 during the 2013 campaign. Hence, by doing the math, the Raiders appear set to take on the league’s most difficult itinerary, with the Colts taking on the softest.
•SOS – The New Math
On paper, strength of schedule numbers don’t lie. On the field, though, it’s an entirely different story. A better gauge of calculating each team’s strength of schedule is to look at each team’s opponent for what they are expected to be – not what they were last year. We do this by weighing each opponent’s estimated season win-totals for the upcoming year. The higher the grand total, the more difficult the mission. These are the season win-totals set by the sharpest odds-makers in the industry. These anticipated win-totals much better represent each team’s probability of wins and losses for the season ahead as opposed to the itinerary they faced the previous campaign.
For instance, using the opening season win-totals posted the Superbook in Las Vegas, Arizona will actually face the most difficult schedule in 2014 with opponents’ overall projected season win totals collectively adding up to 138 victories this season. On the flip side, Houston brings up the rear, going up against opponents with a Charmin-like 118 collective season wins for the year.
•Turning Over A New Page
Make no mistake about it. Avoiding fumbles and other turnovers is the single most predictive measure of success in the National Football League. And when it comes to turnovers in the NFL, returning to the norm is also a common practice for teams that were heavily on one side or the other of the seasonal equation. Over the last half dozen years, there have been a total of 23 losing teams that finished the season on the plus side of overall turnovers. Only five of them fell to a worse win/loss record the following season (14 improvements and four with identical records).
This year finds Buffalo, St. Louis and Tampa Bay meeting the same criteria. On the other side of the coin, 17 teams concluded a season with a winning record despite finishing on the minus side of the turnover ledger. Only four of them managed to improve on their record the next year (10 improvements and three with matching records). This year’s cast of characters staring at a very slippery slope includes Arizona, Green Bay and San Diego.
•Losers To Winners And Vice-Versa
Looking back over the past six seasons, the top three teams in net plus-turnovers over the course of the regular season declined an average of -2.4 games straight up, and -2.2 games against the spread the following season. This year finds Seattle (+20), Kansas City (+16) and Indianapolis (+13) as the turnover kings in 2013. Conversely, the bottom three teams in net minus-turnovers the previous season improved an of average +2.3 games straight up, and +2.7 games against the spread the following campaign.
The three leading candidates to wear the silver slipper this year are Houston (-20), the NY Giants (-17) and the NY Jets (-14). So before you take the plunge this NFL season, try acquainting yourself with The New Math. You’ll be glad you did.
5 Teams That Improved Through The NFL Draft
•Jacksonville Jaguars -A team that was 31st in yards per game, and dead last at 32 in the league in scoring at 15.4 points, made strides in upgrading their offense. Taking Blake Bortles with the 3rd overall pick, they got a keeper there. Best news for Bortles is the Jags don't plan on throwing him to the wolves in his first season. Jacksonville plans to bring him along slowly, and give him a year to get comfortable with the system. The Jags also add an offensive lineman in Beadles, that they got from Denver. Still on the offensive side of the ball they pick up running back Gerhart from Minnesota. Besides Bortles, Jacksonville got Marquis Lee in the 2nd round with the 39th overall pick. Give it a couple of years, and this may prove to be a real steal for the Jaguars. Jacksonville also picked up 7 players on defense via the draft and free agency. Look for them to be stronger on both sides of the ball this year.
•Houston Texans - Whenever you get a player the caliber of Jadeveon Clowney on one end, and you have J.J. Watt on the other side, you have quite the formidable combination. The Texans were actually 11th in the league in yardage, but ranked 31st in putting points on the board. Turnovers killed them last season as they were a minus 20 in that category. The Texans also picked up two safeties on defense in Clemens ( Miami ) and Lewis from Kansas City to support their secondary. Romeo Crennel (who has always been a much better defensive coach then Head Coach) will have the opportunity to get the Texans on track on the defensive side of the ball. If Ryan Fitzpatrick can somehow limit the mistakes which equate into turnovers, then the Texans have a great chance for huge improvement. Their 2-14 record was very misleading last year, and a 9-7 / 8-8 season is very much within reach this time around
•Tampa Bay Buccaneers -The Buccaneers took 3 skill players with their first 3 picks in the past the draft. Moving forward Tampa Bay also made their 4th, 5th and 6th picks from the offensive side of the ball. Do you see a pattern developing here? It looks as if the Buccaneers are trying to get McCown all the help they can get for the upcoming season to run the offense. On defense Tampa Bay shipped out 6 players who had at least 7 starts or more for them last year, but on the flip side picked some players with tons of playing experience. They picked up 4 guys who had 15 or more starts last season. Some of this was made possible by getting rid of Darelle Revis who was more of a hassle then he was worth. Tampa's strong suit when things are going well is their defense. They are really looking forward on trying to improve on what was the 21st ranked defense in the NFL last season.
•Atlanta Falcons - The Falcons missed the playoffs for the first time in 4 years, as they were hit with the injury bug throughout the season. As a result, Atlanta was terrible on defense, and could not stop anybody, especially against the run. The secondary losses two starters but they quickly replaced those two slots with the addition of Wilson from Washington, and the drafting of Woodward. After their first pick with Offensive lineman Matthews, the Falcons were pretty much all defense in the draft. They used 7 out of their next 8 selections to revamp the defensive side of the ball. With a stronger defense, this will give Matty Ice many more opportunities to get points on the board for Atlanta who was 20th in scoring offense last year. Look for Atlanta to be right in the thick of the playoff race this time around.
•Cleveland Browns -If you’re a Cleveland Brown fan, or you have been a fan since they resurfaced in 1999, what can I say? The Browns, and in many instances referred to the Clowns based on past decisions and results. Maybe, just maybe this will be the year that they can put some of those skeletons in the closet. New ownership across the board, including a new head coach, and a pretty solid draft, and the Browns just might be on track. Of course nobody talks about their first overall pick in Justin Gilbert, all the hype surrounds their 2nd pick in the first round at # 22, Johnny Football.
This guy is getting more media attention then LeBron James was getting when he was in Cleveland. The media is on what time Manziel eats breakfast. If nothing else it has created a buzz in Cleveland, and has already helped the Browns sell more season tickets. There are probably other teams that did an overall better job in the draft, but with Johnny Football you have a real "Wild Card ". The Browns had a offensive that was in the middle of the pack as far as yardage, but that didn't translate into touchdowns. The Browns were 27th in scoring but hope to improve with the addition of Burelson, Austin and Tate.
Three QBs To Top The NFL In Passing Yards
July could be the toughest month for National Football League bettors. Training camps are open, the preseason is almost here, and there are long lists of team and player props growing everyday at your sportsbook of choice. In order to help get your through those hot sleepless summer nights, StatSystemsSports.net Vegas Insider Ryan Taylor breaks down some of the most popular NFL player props on the board – starting with the “Most Passing Yards” odds from Sportsbook.ag.
Here are three "Most Passing Yard" wagers – outside of the top favorites (Peyton Manning +300, Drew Brees +400, Aaron Rodgers +600, Matt Stafford +700) – that present solid value heading into the 2014 NFL season:
•Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts (+1,800)
Luck was seventh in the league in passing last season, tossing for 4,596 yards, but had his top target taken away from him when WR Reggie Wayne went down with a season-ending injury in Week 7. The Colts added WR Hakeem Nicks and drafted WR Donte Moncrief in the third round, bolstering a receiving corps that also features breakout star WR T.Y. Hilton and a potent TE combo in Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen.
Outside of matchups with Cincinnati and Houston, Indianapolis doesn’t face any elite pass defenses in 2014, setting Luck up for a big season in Year 3. The Colts will be at the top of the AFC South and more than likely contending for home field in the conference. A Week 1 showdown in Denver, versus Peyton Manning, could get the ball rolling on Luck’s career year.
•Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys (+2,000)
Romo threw the ball 535 times in 2013, a drop from his 648 pass attempts in 2012. Sure, he missed the final game of the year and RB DeMarco Murray demanded his share of touches, but Dallas still runs a pass-happy offense as long as Jason Garrett is bumbling the playbook. Remember, Romo passed for 4,903 yards in 2012 – just 46 yards behind Manning.
Romo is coming off back surgery but says he’s going to be better than ever this season. He certainly has the talent around him to challenge for the passing title. Top receiver Dez Bryant is emerging as an elite force, TE Jason Witten is about as secure a safety blanket as you can find, and even Murray is a threat to catch passes. And with a defense that gave up a record number of yards last year, Romo will be called upon to carry the team most weeks.
•Nick Foles, Philadelphia Eagles (+2,500)
There’s no denying the Eagles offense is going to put up some monster numbers in 2014. Philadelphia is another year into Chip Kelly’s high-octane attack and Foles is the man in Philly, after splitting snaps with Mike Vick and missing time with a concussion in 2013. Despite those setbacks, Foles led the league in yards per pass (8.8), was sixth in passing touchdowns (29), and threw for 3,086 yards despite attempting only 350 passes – tied for 25th (with Ryan Fitzpatrick). The Eagles were among the most run-heavy teams in the NFL (passing only 52.97 percent of the time) and some of that had to do with the instability at QB.
Philadelphia did drop home-run hitter DeSean Jackson this offseason, who topped the team with 1,385 yards receiving in 2013. But, as Kelly proved in his time at Oregon, this is a system that can plug in random parts and produce. Expect stud running back LeSean McCoy to catch more passes and rookie WR Jordan Matthews to emerge as a big weapon for the Eagles – all the while boosting Foles’ stats.
'BETCHA DIDN'T KNOW'
Vegas Insider Ryan Taylor
Contrary to popular opinion there's money to be made during the National Football League preseason. One of the tools I use in my handicapping approach is our Library of Trends stored in our Huge database, and Situation Analysis in order to develop proven betting systems that have survived the test of time.
As I have stated on several occasions, you shouldn't just limit yourself to one facet of sports handicapping when wagering your hard earned money. However, I've taken the time to share some extremely profitable betting systems during the NFL preseason that can serve you well as a fundamental starting point. All of this information is originated from "World Renowned Sports Expert" Stan 'The Man’s software, and only a handful of professional sports handicappers in the country currently possess.
•Any NFL preseason away underdog of 3.5 or less that's coming off a straight up favorite loss by 10-points or more, versus an opponent coming off a SU&ATS win is 23-4 ATS (85.2%) since 1980.
•Any NFL preseason away underdog of 7.0 or more, versus an opponent coming off a SU&ATS win in which they covered by 5.5 or more, has gone 19-9 ATS (67.9%) since 1980.
•Any NFL preseason away underdog that's coming off 2 consecutive wins, versus an opponent coming off a win by 10-points or more, has gone 22-6 ATS (78.5%) since 1994.
•Any NFL preseason underdog of 6.5 or more that's coming off a loss by 10-points or more, versus an opponent coming off a SU&ATS win has gone 20-5 ATS (83.3%) since 1980.
Preseason Incredible Stat
Systems Analyst Larry Hertner
The Kansas City Chiefs are just 7-33 against the spread in preseason games (17.5%) the last 10 years, including 0-15 ATS versus a foe off an ATS win. At their best, the Chiefs are playoff-caliber. The Chiefs proved it a season ago with their sound, stout play en route to a wild card berth. The Chiefs forced 36 turnovers and committed a mere 18. Their defense proved too tough for weaker opposition. By early November, the Chiefs were 9-0 and had all but made the postseason. However, the Chiefs had peaked early. They won just two of their final eight games, including a 45-44 playoff loss at Indianapolis marked by Kansas City blowing a 28-point third-quarter lead.
In the end, there was no doubting where the Chiefs fit in the NFL’s power structure. They were much stronger than the league’s weakest outfits, but they just couldn’t handle stepping up in class. The Chiefs were 10-0 against clubs who missed the postseason but just 1-6 against playoff entrants, with the lone victory against Philadelphia in September. With seven games against 2013 playoff teams, including league elites Seattle, San Francisco, New England and Denver, the Chiefs must fare better against top competition if they are to improve upon their work from a season ago.
Preseason – 'Awesome Angles’
Systems Analyst James Vogel
The Hall of Fame Game has traditionally kicked off the preseason schedule since the NFL and AFL merger in 1971. Prior to the merger the game was played in September during the final week of the preseason slate, beginning in 1962 when the New York Giants and St. Louis Cardinals played to a 21-21 tie. There were some asterisks to be noted since the event’s inception. The game wasn’t held in 1966 but resumed immediately after in 1967. It also wasn’t played in 2011 due to the NFL lockout resulting from a labor dispute between the players union and management. On 2 separate occasions (1980 & 2003) the game was halted in the 4th quarter and subsequently discontinued because of severe weather conditions.
•Take Me From The Hall Of Fame
I have taken the time to track how teams have done in their next contest following the Hall of Fame Game. The general rule of thumb is that participants in the Hall of Fame Game face opponents in the following week which are playing their preseason opener.
Once again we’re relying on our trusted database here at WWW.StatSystemsSports.net to provide me with those results.
Please keep in mind that our database only has preseason data that dates back to the beginning of the 1983 campaign. However, it’s a proven fact that teams that have played in this annual game in Canton, Ohio, have been extremely profitable in their following game.
•A Different Agenda After Playing In Canton
One of the most simple, yet profitable NFL preseason Situational Analysis, involves teams that have played in the Hall of Fame Game. Any team that played in the Hall of Fame Game in their previous contest, versus an opponent playing their first preseason game of the year has gone 54-27-5 ATS (66.7%), and 56-30 straight up (65.1%) since 1983. The situation becomes even more profitable when adding a couple more variables.
If those teams are coming off a straight-up and against the spread loss they improve to 29-11 ATS (72.5%), and 28-12 SU (70%) since 1983. If those teams failed to cover in the Hall of Fame contest by 15.5 points or less, they improve to 24-5 SU and ATS (82.8%) since 1987. Last season saw this exact situation occur, and it produced an easy winner. The Miami Dolphins lost to the Dallas Cowboys 24-20 as a 3.0-point favorite in Canton. The following week Miami was a 1.5 point favorite at Jacksonville, and went on to hammer the Jaguars 27-3 while easily covering the number.
•Keeping A Close Eye On This Year
This season’s Hall of Fame Game takes place on Sunday August 3rd between the Buffalo Bills and the New York Giants. Buffalo will travel to Carolina the following Friday to take on the Panthers, while the Giants will host the Pittsburgh Steelers the following night. Just in case you were wondering. The Giants have gone 6-3 SU and ATS over their last 9-years under head coach Tom Coughlin in their 2nd preseason game.
The Bills won and covered last season over the Minnesota Viking in their 2nd preseason game for first year head coach Doug Marrone. It’s never too early to make money in the NFL, but despite any highly profitable preseason situations that I share, I would suggest to always stay on the conservative side at this time of the year. There are just way too many miscellaneous intangibles and variables that take place in these games to justify any type of significant wager.
•An Inexact Science
There's no denying that in the grand scheme of things, NFL preseason results have no bearing on what we can expect to see in the regular season. However, as long as Las Vegas continues to put out a point-spread, and total on each preseason contest, then there's certainly an opportunity to make money. Before I get into some Situational Analysis that have been profitable over the years, I always advise clients and readers alike to proceed with caution at this time of the year. I always recommend wagering no more than 1.25% of your total bankroll per game during the preseason. There are just too many intangibles and variables to account for compared to regular season action.
•Dress Rehearsals
It's been pretty standard tradition amongst NFL head coaches over the years to use their next to last preseason game as a dress rehearsal for the upcoming regular season. There are certainly exceptions to the rule in that regard. Jeff Fisher for example has been a proponent of using the last preseason game in order to get his projected starters the most prepared for regular season action. Fisher has exhibited that practice during his 15-years as head coach in Tennessee, and in his current tenure as the boss in St. Louis. Then we have the annual isolated instances of the teams that play in the Hall of Fame Game that play 5-games compared to the 4-games in which the other 30-teams play. We will touch upon that later in this article.
•Away Favorites Ready for the Real Show
Keeping in mind that 30 of the 32-teams in the NFL play 4-games during the preseason annually, and Game #3 in the majority of instances are used for their final tune up before it counts for real. Since the 1983 preseason, away favorites have been a very profitable play when playing in Game #3 of the preseason. During that time away favorites have gone 52-33 ATS (61.2%). We can tighten that up even more to make it an extremely profitable situation. Away favorites of 5.0 or less that are coming off a straight up loss in their previous game have gone 24-9 ATS (72.7%) during that same time span.
The logic here is quite clear in my eyes. The odds-makers know that teams treat this game as close to a regular season game as you will get. Sticking with the theme of respecting their ability to set a line with the utmost accuracy, they clearly feel that the away team in this situation isn't only superior, but also possesses the best intangible and miscellaneous edges. For lack of a better phrase, "the proof is in the pudding".
•Hall of Fame Game Participants
Each preseason we have two teams that take part in the annual Hall of Fame Game in Canton, Ohio, that use their 4th game in their 5-game schedule, as their final dress rehearsal. These teams have been traditionally a fade in these situations. Hall of Fame Game participants that are playing in their 4th preseason game have gone a miserable 57-81 ATS (41.3%) since 1983. If those teams are playing on the road they fall to 10-30 ATS (25%), and 8-32 (20%) straight up since 1993. The conclusion I draw from these results keep with the theme of keeping it simple. These two clubs had to report to training camp a week or more before the rest of the NFL teams. As a result of the rigors of training camp, and having to travel to play this late in the preseason campaign has taken a toll.
•Do It To Me One More Time
Sometimes the price you’re asked to pay for success turns out to be a bargain. And in today’s economy, we’ll take all the bargains we can find. Take the case of NFL teams that have just enjoyed winning back-to-back home games during the preseason. One might think these teams are primed for a letdown. That’s because teams in this role are a solid 46-25-1 ATS when taking to the road off a pair of home victories in the preseason since 1983, including a glittering 7-2 ATS performance the last three seasons. Better yet, send them away off a double-digit win and they’re a 26-9 ATS winning proposition.
Dress these same guys up as dogs and they respond like a pack of hungry canines, going 19-5 ATS. Incidentally, there is also a 15-0 ATS PERFECT subset contained inside this situation that occurs whenever our qualifying team failed to cover their previous home victory by 15 or more points. Here is a list of the eight NFL teams that will take to the road off back-to-back home games this preseason: 8/22 – Carolina at New England and Chicago at Seattle; 8/23 – Washington at Baltimore, Minnesota at Kansas City and St. Louis at Cleveland; 8/28 – Indianapolis at Cincinnati, New England at NY Giants, San Francisco at Houston and Seattle at Oakland.
**PRESEASON FAST FACT: New England has gone a perfect 0-8 ATS since ’08 as a preseason favorite of more than 3 points.
Preseason Coaching Records
If you’re looking to make a quick score before the start of the 2014 National Football League season then look no further than the coaches and their preseason tendencies. It appears coaches like Jim Caldwell, Joe Philbin, Mike Smith and Ken Whisenhunt don’t put much stock in exhibition play, as evidenced by their collective 19-51 SU and 22-45-2 ATS career marks during the preseason. The same, however, cannot be said for Pete Carroll, Jim Harbaugh and Sean Payton, who together are 45-29 SU and 49-24-2 ATS throughout the preseason. Then there’s Marvin Lewis, the epitome of consistency throughout his NFL career during the preseason, with repeating 23-22 SU, ATS and Over/Under marks.
And if your cup of tea is 'Totals' take a look at the defensive priorities of Mike Tomlin and Jim Harbaugh – who together have played 15-24-2 to the UNDER in their preseason games. On the other side of the coin, coaches like Jim Caldwell, Pete Carroll, Mike McCarthy and Rex Ryan seem more interested in fine-tuning the offense, going 56-28 OVER the total collectively in exhibition games.
Note:Over/Under records are since 1999. Over/Under records with an asterisk (*) represents the coaches’ totals performance in preseason games since 1999 only. All other results are as an NFL head coach throughout his career. All Best/Worst Role results below are ATS, unless noted otherwise.
TEAM/COACH - SU, ATS, O/U, BEST/WORSE ROLE
•AZ - Bruce Arians 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 1-3 O/U, 2-0 away.
•ATL - Mike Smith 7-17 SU, 9-13-2 ATS, 11-12-1 O/U, 5-1 off SU favorite loss.
•BAL - John Harbaugh 15-9 SU, 13-11 ATS, 12-12 O/U, 1-6 off DD ATS win.
•BUF - Doug Marrone 2-2 SU, 1-2-1 ATS, 2-2 O/U, 0-2 vs. opponent off SU win.
•CAR - Ron Rivera 6-6 SU, 7-5 ATS, 6-6 O/U, 5-1 if total is 36 points or less.
•CHI - Marc Trestman 2-2SU, 1-3 ATS, 3-1 O/U, 0-2 dog.
•CIN - Marvin Lewis 23-22 SU, 23-22 ATS, 23-22 O/U, 1-6 vs. opponent off DD ATS win.
•DAL - Jason Garrett 7-6 SU, 5-8 ATS, 6-7 O/U, 1-5 SU/ATS off SU win.
•DEN - John Fox 25-23 SU, 21-26-1 ATS, 26-21-1 O/U, 0-8-1 vs. opponent off SU favorite loss.
•DET - Jim Caldwell 2-10 SU, 4-8 ATS, 8-4 O/U, 1-5 SU/ATS if total is 36 points or less.
•GB - Mike McCarthy 15-17 SU, 15-17 ATS, 21-11 O/U, 5-1 SU/ATS off SU DD loss.
•IND - Chuck Pagano 4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS, 4-4 O/U, 5-1 SU/ATS if not dog 3 points or less.
•JAC - Gus Bradley 1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS, 2-2 O/U, 0-3 SU/ATS pick or dog.
•KC - Andy Reid 27-33 SU, 27-30-3 ATS, *33-25-2 O/U, 5-0 dog 4 points or more.
•MIA - Joe Philbin 2-7 SU, 1-8 ATS, 5-4 O/U, 0-6 vs. opponent Game Two or later.
•NE - Bill Belichick 42-35 SU, 38-33-6 ATS, *29-27-1 O/U, 7-1-1 vs. opponent off BB SU losses.
•NO - Sean Payton 16-13 SU, 18-11 ATS, 14-12-3 O/U, 10-1 vs. opponent off SU loss.
•NYG - Tom Coughlin 38-35 SU, 36-33-4 ATS, *27-29 O/U, 5-0 off BB SU/ATS wins.
•NYJ - Rex Ryan 9-11 SU, 10-10 ATS, 14-6 O/U, 0-5 SU/ATS Game One.
•OAK - Dennis Allen 2-6 SU, 3-5 ATS, 5-3 O/U, 1-4 dog 4 points or more.
•PHI - Chip Kelly 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 3-1 O/U, 2-0 SU/ATS if total is 40 points or more.
•PIT - Mike Tomlin 19-10 SU, 14-14-1 ATS, 11-17-1 O/U, 5-1 if total is 37 points or more.
•STL - Jeff Fisher 37-35 SU, 36-34-2 ATS, *34-23 O/U, 5-0 dog vs. opponent off SU/ATS win.
•SD - Mike McCoy 1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS, 3-1 O/U, 2-0 away/0-2 home.
•SF - Jim Harbaugh 8-4 SU, 8-4 ATS, 4-7-1 O/U, 4-0 SU/ATS off SU loss.
•SEA - Pete Carroll 21-12 SU, 23-9-1 ATS, *13-7 O/U, 11-1 vs. opponent off SU win.
•TB - Lovie Smith 19-18 SU, 18-18-1 ATS, 20-17 O/U, 5-1 off SU dog win.
•TEN - Ken Whisenhunt 8-17 SU, 8-16-1 ATS, 13-12 O/U, 1-8 vs. opponent off SU/ATS loss.
Preseason Report - AFC
Lead Sports Writer Todd Smith
AFC East
•Buffalo Bills
Head Coach: Doug Marrone
Quarterback Rotation: E.J. Manuel, Jeff Tuel, Dennis Dixon, Thad Lewis
Doug Marrone enters his second season as Buffalo’s head coach. He’s been in the NFL for seven years, from 2006-08 he served as the offensive coordinator of the New Orleans Saints after a four-year span as the offensive line coach of the New York Jets (2002-05). With this being only Doug Marrone’s second year as a Head Coach: we don’t have much to go on for his preseason trends – however I’ve isolated something that may give us a solid play for the Bills this preseason. Since he's still a fairly new head coach, I can see Marrone wanting to impress the home crowd in his first home game this preseason and this is backed by a strong recent trend for the Bills in the preseason – as Buffalo is 4-0 against the spread in their first home preseason game of the year last four years.
•New York Jets
Head Coach: Rex Ryan
Quarterback Rotation: Geno Smith, Michael Vick, Matt Simms, Tajh Boyd (Rookie Clemson)
The Jets have been consistent in their first and last preseason games over the last four years. Rex Ryan has never put any effort in the Jets opening preseason game, evidenced by their 0-4 against the spread. While in their last preseason game of the year Ryan and the Jets defensive coaches sure take the day off as the Jets have seen the OVER go 4-0 since 2010. So right off the bat here we have a perfect 8-0 trend on the Jets to keep an eye on this preseason.
•Miami Dolphins
Head Coach: Joe Philbin
Quarterback Rotation: Ryan Tannehill, Matt Moore, Pat Devlin, Brock Jensen – (Rookie - North Dakota State)
This will be Philbin’s third year as head coach of the Dolphins, after going over his first two preseason campaigns, it’s very apparent that he puts very little effort into winning these meaningless games. In his first nine preseason games the Dolphins are a woeful 1-8 against the spread with their only win coming against the hapless Jaguars. So let’s make the Dolphins a definite fade this preseason.
•New England Patriots
Head Coach: Bill Belichick
Quarterback Rotation: Tom Brady, Ryan Mallett, Jimmy Garoppolo (Rookie - Eastern Illinois)
Here is one of my top rated preseason plays, and it focuses on coach Bill Belichick and the Patriots. Belichick has never liked to give anything away to his opponents – just look at one of his press conferences to see what I mean – well something shows up in the preseason every year from New England that we can take advantage of. Week#3 of the preseason is when all teams do their dress rehearsal for the season with all starters on both sides of the ball playing into the third quarter.
Well again Belichick doesn’t want his regular season Week #1 opponent to get any films to look at so he doesn’t take this game seriously – and it show shows up in the point spread logs as the Patriots over the past six seasons are a dismal 0-6 against the spread in this situation. Just to give you an example of how strong this is in last year’s dress rehearsal against the Lions, the Patriots were crushed 40-9 as one-point underdogs. So mark down Aug. 22 on your calendar as the Patriots host Carolina in their dress rehearsal game this year.
AFC North
•Cleveland Browns
Head Coach: Mike Pettine
Quarterback Rotation: Brian Hoyer, Johnny Manziel (R Texas A&M), Tyler Thigpen, Connor Shaw (Rookie South Carolina)
With Pettine’s specialty being defense – let’s keep an eye out on the Browns UNDER this preseason – as he may concentrate on what he knows best trying to build the team. Another strong trend that has developed for Cleveland is its dress rehearsal games. The Browns are 0-3, losing all of these games both straight up and against the spread with the UNDER also going 3-0. One other note – when you see that Johnny Football will be getting the majority of the playing time in any of these Cleveland preseason games – I feel the Browns will be a solid bet – as his style will be perfect to easily move the ball up and down the field especially against the substitutes.
•Pittsburgh Steelers
Head Coach: Mike Tomlin
Quarterback Rotation: Ben Roethlisberger, Bruce Gradkowski, Landry Jones, Brandon Kay (Rookie Cincinnati)
The new CBA rules sure took its effect on the Steelers in last year’s preseason – with Tomlin not being able to incorporate his usual intense training camp, and it showed on the field as the Steelers went 0-4 both straight up and against the spread. Something to watch for as the preseason starts this year. Plus the Steelers are on a 0-4 run in their preseason home games over the past two years all as a favorite, and 1-7 ATS overall.
•Cincinnati Bengals
Head Coach: Marvin Lewis
Quarterback Rotation: Andy Dalton, Jason Campbell, AJ McCarron (Rookie Alabama), Matt Scott
With the Bengals being a consistent playoff team – Lewis doesn’t take these preseason games too seriously – however a strong trend has developed in the Bengals first home preseason game over the past four years – where the Bengals are a perfect 4-0 both straight up and against the spread – so it sure looks like Lewis wants to win this first home game for the fans. The Bengals first home game this year is on Aug. 14 versus the Jets.
•Baltimore Ravens
Head Coach: John Harbaugh
Quarterback Rotation: Joe Flacco, Tyrod Taylor, Keith Wenning (Rookie Ball State)
Here we have another team that has been effected with the new CBA rule changes – Harbaugh and the Ravens used to be a strong bet in the preseason as they mostly played low-scoring games making the UNDER the way to go. However with the less intense training camp routines now in place, the Ravens have seen the OVER go a money making 7-1 the past two preseason’s. Strong trend to watch for again this year!
AFC South
•Houston Texans
Head Coach: Bill O’Brien
Quarterback Rotation: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Case Keenum, Tom Savage (R Pittsburgh)
O’Brien’s offensive experience may help us make some money with the Texans this preseason – As I found that Houston as seen the OVER be the winning play in their first preseason game the last 4 years. Plus the Texans have seen the OVER go 6-2 the past two years. So let’s look for some high-scoring games form the Texans this preseason.
•Indianapolis Colts
Head Coach: Chuck Pagano
Quarterback Rotation: Andrew Luck, Matt Hasselbeck, Chandler Harnish
With Pagano as head coach, the Colts sure like to play a very wide-open game in their first preseason game of the year – as over the past two years a combined average of 52 points have been scored. And what a perfect opponent to open up with this year as the Jets, who have watched the OVER go 4-0 in their preseason games from a year ago. This year’s opening preseason game against the Jets will be played on Aug. 7.
•Jacksonville Jaguars
Head Coach: Gus Bradley
Quarterback Rotation: Chad Henne, Blake Bortles (Rookie UCF), Ricky Stanzi, Stephen Morris (Rookie Miami)
The Jaguars have lost their dress rehearsal game in 2011 and 2012, and Gus Bradley sure continued this trend in his first year as head coach in 2013 as the Jaguars gave up 34 points against the Eagles in another double-digit loss. Let’s look for this strong trend to continue this season as Jacksonville pays a visit to Detroit on Aug. 22 for their dress rehearsal game. Plus, I have to add here that the Jaguars sure weren’t ready to play in their opening preseason game with Bradley as they were dominated at home against the Dolphins 27-3. Jacksonville’s first preseason game this year is on Aug. 8 against the Buccaneers (Tampa Bay is one of my strongest preseason plays as it’s a money making 6-2 ATS in its first preseason game) a perfect fit here against an underachieving Jaguars squad.
•Tennessee Titans
Head Coach: Ken Whisenhunt
Quarterback Rotation: Jake Locker, Charlie Whitehurst, Tyler Wilson, Zach Mettenberger (Rookie LSU)
The Titans lost three of their four preseason games last season – this may be something to watch for again this year – as in his last year as the head coach of the Cardinals back in 2012, Whisenhunt went a perfect 0-4 against the spread. Plus Whisenhunt in his final two years as head coach in the preseason saw six of his last eight games go OVER the posted total.
AFC West
•Denver Broncos
Head Coach: John Fox
Quarterback Rotation: Payton Manning, Brock Osweiler, Zac Dysert, Bryn Renner (Rookie North Carolina)
Strong trend has developed since John Fox has taken over as the head coach of the Broncos, as Denver has come out strong in their opening preseason game going a perfect 3-0 with all three wins as an underdog. This preseason the Broncos open up against the Super Bowl champions Seahawks – who may have the Super Bowl hangover coming into this preseason. Plus the opposite is sure true in the Broncos dress rehearsal game under Fox where Denver has failed to cover the spread in all three games. This year’s dress rehearsal game is on Aug. 23 against Houston.
•Kansas City Chiefs
Head Coach: Andy Reid
Quarterback Rotation: Alex Smith, Chase Daniel, Tyler Bray, Aaron Murray (Rookie Georgia)
Kansas City has been one of the best fade teams in the preseason going an incredible 6-23 against the spread over the past seven years. I definitely look for more of the same this year as I look for Andy Reid to continue the tradition in Kansas City of not caring about these preseason games. Take a close look at the Chiefs first preseason game this year as Reid is 1-8 against the spread in his last nine opening preseason games in Philadelphia and Kansas City. Kansas City opens up this year at home against Cincinnati on Aug. 7.
•Oakland Raiders
Head Coach: Dennis Allen
Quarterback Rotation: Matt Schaub, Derek Carr (Rookie Fresno State), Matt McGloin, Trent Edwards
Allen has continued the Raiders losing ways in the preseason already losing six of the Raiders eight preseason games with him calling the shots. Plus no matter whom the head coach is of Oakland they always seem to finish the preseason on a down note – as in the past seven years they are a perfect 0-7 against the spread in their last preseason game of the year. This year’s finale for the Raiders is on Aug. 28 against the Seahawks at home.
•San Diego Chargers
Head Coach: Mike McCoy
Quarterback Rotation: Philip Rivers, Kellen Clemens, Brad Sorensen
Now in his second season in San Diego, you can’t forget that Mike McCoy came from Denver where he was the offensive coordinator for the high powered Broncos offense. I’m curious to see what numbers the oddsmakers put up on the San Diego totals this preseason. As last preseason the Chargers under McCoy saw the OVER go 3-1. With McCoy’s offensive background watch for San Diego to continue their high scoring ways this preseason.
_________________________________________________
Preseason Report - NFC
Expert Handicapper Jude Ravo
NFC East
•Dallas Cowboys
Head Coach: Jason Garrett
Quarterback Rotation: Tony Romo, Brandon Weeden, Caleb Hanie, Dustin Vaughan (Rookie West Texas A&M)
Garrett and the Cowboys have not fared well in the preseason going 4-8 against the spread in their last 12 regular preseason games. Plus a total trend to watch for this preseason is that the Cowboys seem to just want to go thru the motions in their final game as the UNDER has gone 3-1 the last four years.
•New York Giants
Head Coach: Tom Coughlin
Quarterback Rotation: Eli Manning, Ryan Nassib, Curtis Painter
A solid money-making trend has shown up for the Giants as of late as Tom Coughlin in the past four years has seemed to put no effort in the Giants dress rehearsal game as the Giants are 0-4 both straight up and against the spread. This year’s dress rehearsal game is on Aug. 22 against the Jets.
•Philadelphia Eagles
Head Coach: Chip Kelly
Quarterback Rotation: Nick Foles, Mark Sanchez, Matt Barkley, G. J. Kinne
There is not too much to look at for any preseason trends for head coach Chip Kelly. In his first year the Eagles went 2-2 both straight up and against the spread. However, the OVER went 3-1 in those games, which is something to keep an eye on as the Eagles preseason begins. Also, one thing that carried over from the Reid era is that the Eagles again lost their first preseason game which makes them 1-8 against the spread in the last nine opening preseason encounters. Philadelphia’s preseason opener this year is on Aug. 8 at Chicago.
•Washington Redskins
Head Coach: Jay Gruden
Quarterback Rotation: Robert Griffin III, Kirk Cousins, Colt McCoy
Some solid trends going for the Redskins that Jay Gruden may want to build on. Washington went a perfect 4-0 both straight up and against the spread in last year’s preseason games, and they also have been money in their dress rehearsal games the last four years going 4-0 against the spread. This year’s dress rehearsal game for the Redskins is on Aug. 23 at Baltimore.
NFC North
•Chicago Bears
Head Coach: Marc Trestman
Quarterback Rotation: Jay Cutler, Jimmy Clausen, Jordan Palmer, David Fales (Rookie San Jose State)
In Trestman’s first year as head coach of the Bears – his prior offensive coordinator experience paid off as three of the four Bears games saw the OVER connect. In their dress rehearsal game against the Raiders the Bears scored a whopping 34 points. So let’s look for more wide-open play from Chicago as we head into this year’s preseason.
•Detroit Lions
Head Coach: Jim Caldwell
Quarterback Rotation: Matthew Stafford, Kellen Moore, Dan Orlovsky, James Franklin (Rookie Missouri)
In the past two preseasons the Lions saw the OVER go a money making 6-2 – something I feel will continue with Caldwell now the Lions new head coach. Let’s not forget Caldwell tutored a pair of quality quarterbacks Peyton Manning and Joe Flacco – So offense is his forte. Just keep an eye on how the Lions come out offensively in their early preseason games.
•Green Bay Packers
Head Coach: Mike McCarthy
Quarterback Rotation: Aaron Rodgers, Matt Flynn, Scott Tolzien, Chase Rettig (Rookie Boston College)
Mike McCarthy and the Packers used to have a great preseason trend where the OVER hit at a super high rate – however the oddsmakers have finally caught up with this trend and now overvalue the OVER posted in the Green Bay games – resulting in the UNDER going 6-2 in the past two preseason’s. So I would recommend that you take advantage of these high posted totals and lean towards the UNDER going forward. Plus another trend to watch this preseason is that the Packers have lost their opening preseason game the past four years. This year’s opener is on Aug. 9 at Tennessee.
•Minnesota Vikings
Head Coach: Mike Zimmer
Quarterback Rotation: Christian Ponder, Matt Cassel, Teddy Bridgewater (Rookie Louisville)
With Mike Zimmer taking over as coach of the Vikings, look for defense to be the forefront this preseason as Zimmer has been a defensive coordinator the last 14 years in the NFL. In his last two seasons as coordinator of the Bengals the UNDER was the easy winner in the Bengals dress rehearsal games. Look for this to continue this year in the Vikings dress rehearsal game on Aug. 23 at Kansas City.
NFC South
•Atlanta Falcons
Head Coach: Mike Smith
Quarterback Rotation: Matt Ryan, T.J. Yates, Sean Renfree, Jeff Mathews (Rookie Cornell)
One of my favorite preseason plays goes here on the Falcons as in their 'dress rehearsal' game. In the last nine years, the Falcons have gone 8-1 outscoring their opposition 203-88 not counting the 2011 abnormal preseason. This year’s 'dress rehearsal' game for the Falcons will be on Aug. 23 when they play Tennessee at home. After last year’s down season I really look for the Falcons to be very motivated coming into this dress rehearsal game and use it as a starting point to get the season on a winning note.
However if we take a look at the whole body of work for the Falcons over the past two preseason’s we will see that they have lost seven of their eight preseason games played – with their only win coming in the above mentioned dress rehearsal game. And one last thing about Atlanta here is that in their first preseason encounter the past three years they have been dominated losing all while allowing 34, 31, and 28 points, which also made all three of these games fly OVER the posted total.
•Carolina Panthers
Head Coach: Ron Rivera
Quarterback Rotation: Cam Newton (Injury- Ankle), Derek Anderson, Matt Blanchard, Joe Webb
A couple of trends have started to develop with Rivera settling in as head coach in the preseason for the Panthers. First off Rivera seems to want to look good in his dress rehearsal game going 2-0 the past two years. While in the fourth and final game, Rivera seems to just want to get this game over with as the UNDER has been the winning play the past two years. Both of these preseason finales have been against the Steelers which they finish up again on Aug. 28.
•New Orleans Saints
Head Coach: Sean Payton
Quarterback Rotation: Drew Brees, Ryan Griffin, Luke McCown, Logan Kilgore (Rookie Middle Tennessee State)
A strong preseason trend we can follow with the Saints as their high octane offense sure gears up as the preseason progresses. In the past four seasons the Saints have seen the OVER go a perfect 8-0 in their last two preseason games (Week #3 & #4) of the year with 51, 57, 60, 41, 51, 61, 54, and 45 points scored. This year the Saints finish up with Indianapolis on Aug. 23 and Baltimore on Aug. 28.
•Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Head Coach: Lovie Smith
Quarterback Rotation: Mike Glennon, Mike Kafka, Josh McCown, Alex Tanney
In his last two years in Chicago Lovie Smith had winning preseason’s going 6-2 against the spread. I can see him wanting to get a winning attitude right off the bat in Tampa Bay – so let’s look for the Buccaneers to be a team to bet this preseason. Plus the Buccaneers used to be one of my favorite trend plays in the preseason as they were 6-2 against the spread in their first preseason game – this might be something to look into as Smith will want to win his first game as the Buccaneers head coach, especially in front of the home crowd on Aug. 8th against the Eagles.
NFC West
•Arizona Cardinals
Head Coach: Bruce Arians
Quarterback Rotation: Carson Palmer, Drew Stanton, Ryan Lindley, Logan Thomas (Rookie Virginia Tech)
Only one year of stats for Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians for us to look at, however Arizona went 3-1 both straight up and against the spread in its four preseason’s games from a year ago, with the UNDER also going 3-1. Something to keep an eye out for as this year’s preseason begins.
•San Francisco 49ers
Head Coach: Jim Harbaugh
Quarterback Rotation: Colin Kaepernick, Josh Johnson, Blaine Gabbert, McLeod Bethel-Thompson, Kory Faulkner (Rookie Southern Illinois)
Whether its preseason or regular season games, Jim Harbaugh wants to win every time his team takes the field. This sure has been a solid money maker the last two preseason’s as the 49ers have gone 6-2 both straight up and against the spread. It is also important to post here that in this same timeframe San Francisco has seen the UNDER be the right play on both of their first two preseason encounters the past two years – while just the opposite is true as in their dress rehearsal game and final preseason contest the OVER was the winning play. Making for a solid 8-0 run for us to look forward to this year.
•Seattle Seahawks
Head Coach: Pete Carroll
Quarterback Rotation: Russell Wilson, Tarvaris Jackson, Terrelle Pryor, B. J. Daniels
Usually we like to fade the Super Bowl champions in the proceeding preseason – as how can a team be up for these early meaningless games. However if there is one exception it’s sure the Seahawks under Carroll – as Seattle is a money making 11-1 both straight up and against the spread the past three years. Top rated preseason trend in effect here especially when you throw in this year’s quarterback rotation.
•St. Louis Rams
Head Coach: Jeff Fisher
Quarterback Rotation: Sam Bradford, Shaun Hill, Garrett Gilbert (Rookie SMU), Austin Davis
In his return to coaching Jeff Fisher has already shown us a trend that can help make us some money this preseason – as the OVER has gone 6-2 in the eight preseason games the Rams have played with Fisher calling the shots. The one other trend I found was that Fisher sure tries in the Rams dress rehearsal game where St. Louis is a perfect 2-0 ATS with both of these games being played on the road – this year’s dress rehearsal game is on the road again as the Rams visit Cleveland on Aug. 23.
______________________________________________
2014 NFL Preseason Over/Unders
Systems Analyst William Stillman
Welcome back Totals players! Our favorite time of the year is once again upon us. You’ll notice that just like in last season’s Preseason Edition here at StatSystemsSports.net, we like talking ‘TOTALS’. And there are a handful of Over/Under situations in which we can indeed turn a profit on... even in the National Football League exhibition season. The games might not count for the players and coaches (in terms of wins and losses)... but they certainly DO for the bettors!
We start with the best Home and Road OVER + UNDER teams in the last few seasons. After that, we take a look at individual team Over/Under tendencies broken down by Game Number. We then conclude with some of the more noticeable Over/Under patterns in regards to preseason series histories. I think we’ve got it all covered! “Enjoy, and as always the very best of luck” – William!
•BEST Home and Road OVER and UNDER Teams
Best Home Over teams – Over the last four seasons, the best Over team at home has been the Denver Broncos. They’ve gone 7-1 Over/Under (88% Overs) at Sports Authority Field. Average Over/Under line: 38.5. Average total points: 46.8. The average Bronco home game has gone Over by +8.3 points. Right behind them at the #2 spot is the Detroit Lions. In the same 4-year time frame, the Lions have gone 6-1-1 Over/Under (86% Overs) and the average total points in those games has been a very high (for preseason) 49.0. Last year, both Lion home games went Over (43 and 49 points respectively).
Taking our database query a little farther back in the past, we find the Jacksonville Jaguars and New England Patriot. Both teams have gone 11-4 Over/Under at home (73% Overs) since the 2006 season. Jacksonville home games have averaged 42.1 PPG in this time frame. New England's home encounters have averaged 43.9 ppg in that same 8-year stretch. And both of their home games went Over last season (47.0 ppg). Honorable mention: Houston: 5-1-1 Over/Under last 4 years (42.0)... Baltimore: 5-1 Over/Under last 3 years (54.0!)... Cleveland: 4-1-1 Over/Under last 3 years (43.8).
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
________________________________________
Welcome to the 2014 preseason edition of StatSystemsSports.net Football Newsletter. Whether you are a football fundamentalist, a technical buff or a stats lover, we have it all for you under one cover in our Weekly National Football League and NCAA College Football Reports, where each week through the Super Bowl we help you get every edge imaginable!
In each issue our Experts share with you a personal 'BETCHA DIDN'T KNOW' handicapping article as they reveal an insider's approach to the art of football handicapping. Along with Best Bets, Awesome Angles, Situational and Matchup Power Trends, Over/Under Records and Trends, along with our Famous Situation Analysis. Also, be sure to check out our 'QUICK HITS' featuring a quick-read into key stats and trends on the weekly football card – plus the Incredible Stat Of the Week. It's no wonder whenever the Wise Guys in Vegas speak of StatSystems Sports, they say it's "Where The Smart Money Is."
Take the time to ensure your success this football season by subscribing to the 2014 StatSystems Sports Weekly NFL & NCAACF Reports. It’s never been easier: you can call us @ 570-828-4091 for instant service. We hope you like what you see and decide to join us for ‘The Best Football Weekly Report On The Planet’ this year!
“Remember, don't make a move without it, you'll be real glad you did" Stan!
__________________________________________________
NFL Betting News and Notes - Preseason
Thinking about investing in the National Football League season win-totals market this year? If so, our best advice here at StatSystems Sports to you is to make your approach with a different mind-set – from a Las Vegas perspective. In other words, out with the old and in with the new.
•Strength Of Schedule
At first glance, most players will initially look at a team’s projected strength of schedule – the key word here being “projected” – when sizing up a team’s win potential for the year. The most common formula in determining strength of schedule is adding the win-loss record of each opponent from the previous season.
For instance: Oakland’s foes for the 2014 season combined to go 160-116 last year for a combined win percentage of .560, whereas Indianapolis’ opponents this season were 113-150 during the 2013 campaign. Hence, by doing the math, the Raiders appear set to take on the league’s most difficult itinerary, with the Colts taking on the softest.
•SOS – The New Math
On paper, strength of schedule numbers don’t lie. On the field, though, it’s an entirely different story. A better gauge of calculating each team’s strength of schedule is to look at each team’s opponent for what they are expected to be – not what they were last year. We do this by weighing each opponent’s estimated season win-totals for the upcoming year. The higher the grand total, the more difficult the mission. These are the season win-totals set by the sharpest odds-makers in the industry. These anticipated win-totals much better represent each team’s probability of wins and losses for the season ahead as opposed to the itinerary they faced the previous campaign.
For instance, using the opening season win-totals posted the Superbook in Las Vegas, Arizona will actually face the most difficult schedule in 2014 with opponents’ overall projected season win totals collectively adding up to 138 victories this season. On the flip side, Houston brings up the rear, going up against opponents with a Charmin-like 118 collective season wins for the year.
•Turning Over A New Page
Make no mistake about it. Avoiding fumbles and other turnovers is the single most predictive measure of success in the National Football League. And when it comes to turnovers in the NFL, returning to the norm is also a common practice for teams that were heavily on one side or the other of the seasonal equation. Over the last half dozen years, there have been a total of 23 losing teams that finished the season on the plus side of overall turnovers. Only five of them fell to a worse win/loss record the following season (14 improvements and four with identical records).
This year finds Buffalo, St. Louis and Tampa Bay meeting the same criteria. On the other side of the coin, 17 teams concluded a season with a winning record despite finishing on the minus side of the turnover ledger. Only four of them managed to improve on their record the next year (10 improvements and three with matching records). This year’s cast of characters staring at a very slippery slope includes Arizona, Green Bay and San Diego.
•Losers To Winners And Vice-Versa
Looking back over the past six seasons, the top three teams in net plus-turnovers over the course of the regular season declined an average of -2.4 games straight up, and -2.2 games against the spread the following season. This year finds Seattle (+20), Kansas City (+16) and Indianapolis (+13) as the turnover kings in 2013. Conversely, the bottom three teams in net minus-turnovers the previous season improved an of average +2.3 games straight up, and +2.7 games against the spread the following campaign.
The three leading candidates to wear the silver slipper this year are Houston (-20), the NY Giants (-17) and the NY Jets (-14). So before you take the plunge this NFL season, try acquainting yourself with The New Math. You’ll be glad you did.
5 Teams That Improved Through The NFL Draft
•Jacksonville Jaguars -A team that was 31st in yards per game, and dead last at 32 in the league in scoring at 15.4 points, made strides in upgrading their offense. Taking Blake Bortles with the 3rd overall pick, they got a keeper there. Best news for Bortles is the Jags don't plan on throwing him to the wolves in his first season. Jacksonville plans to bring him along slowly, and give him a year to get comfortable with the system. The Jags also add an offensive lineman in Beadles, that they got from Denver. Still on the offensive side of the ball they pick up running back Gerhart from Minnesota. Besides Bortles, Jacksonville got Marquis Lee in the 2nd round with the 39th overall pick. Give it a couple of years, and this may prove to be a real steal for the Jaguars. Jacksonville also picked up 7 players on defense via the draft and free agency. Look for them to be stronger on both sides of the ball this year.
•Houston Texans - Whenever you get a player the caliber of Jadeveon Clowney on one end, and you have J.J. Watt on the other side, you have quite the formidable combination. The Texans were actually 11th in the league in yardage, but ranked 31st in putting points on the board. Turnovers killed them last season as they were a minus 20 in that category. The Texans also picked up two safeties on defense in Clemens ( Miami ) and Lewis from Kansas City to support their secondary. Romeo Crennel (who has always been a much better defensive coach then Head Coach) will have the opportunity to get the Texans on track on the defensive side of the ball. If Ryan Fitzpatrick can somehow limit the mistakes which equate into turnovers, then the Texans have a great chance for huge improvement. Their 2-14 record was very misleading last year, and a 9-7 / 8-8 season is very much within reach this time around
•Tampa Bay Buccaneers -The Buccaneers took 3 skill players with their first 3 picks in the past the draft. Moving forward Tampa Bay also made their 4th, 5th and 6th picks from the offensive side of the ball. Do you see a pattern developing here? It looks as if the Buccaneers are trying to get McCown all the help they can get for the upcoming season to run the offense. On defense Tampa Bay shipped out 6 players who had at least 7 starts or more for them last year, but on the flip side picked some players with tons of playing experience. They picked up 4 guys who had 15 or more starts last season. Some of this was made possible by getting rid of Darelle Revis who was more of a hassle then he was worth. Tampa's strong suit when things are going well is their defense. They are really looking forward on trying to improve on what was the 21st ranked defense in the NFL last season.
•Atlanta Falcons - The Falcons missed the playoffs for the first time in 4 years, as they were hit with the injury bug throughout the season. As a result, Atlanta was terrible on defense, and could not stop anybody, especially against the run. The secondary losses two starters but they quickly replaced those two slots with the addition of Wilson from Washington, and the drafting of Woodward. After their first pick with Offensive lineman Matthews, the Falcons were pretty much all defense in the draft. They used 7 out of their next 8 selections to revamp the defensive side of the ball. With a stronger defense, this will give Matty Ice many more opportunities to get points on the board for Atlanta who was 20th in scoring offense last year. Look for Atlanta to be right in the thick of the playoff race this time around.
•Cleveland Browns -If you’re a Cleveland Brown fan, or you have been a fan since they resurfaced in 1999, what can I say? The Browns, and in many instances referred to the Clowns based on past decisions and results. Maybe, just maybe this will be the year that they can put some of those skeletons in the closet. New ownership across the board, including a new head coach, and a pretty solid draft, and the Browns just might be on track. Of course nobody talks about their first overall pick in Justin Gilbert, all the hype surrounds their 2nd pick in the first round at # 22, Johnny Football.
This guy is getting more media attention then LeBron James was getting when he was in Cleveland. The media is on what time Manziel eats breakfast. If nothing else it has created a buzz in Cleveland, and has already helped the Browns sell more season tickets. There are probably other teams that did an overall better job in the draft, but with Johnny Football you have a real "Wild Card ". The Browns had a offensive that was in the middle of the pack as far as yardage, but that didn't translate into touchdowns. The Browns were 27th in scoring but hope to improve with the addition of Burelson, Austin and Tate.
Three QBs To Top The NFL In Passing Yards
July could be the toughest month for National Football League bettors. Training camps are open, the preseason is almost here, and there are long lists of team and player props growing everyday at your sportsbook of choice. In order to help get your through those hot sleepless summer nights, StatSystemsSports.net Vegas Insider Ryan Taylor breaks down some of the most popular NFL player props on the board – starting with the “Most Passing Yards” odds from Sportsbook.ag.
Here are three "Most Passing Yard" wagers – outside of the top favorites (Peyton Manning +300, Drew Brees +400, Aaron Rodgers +600, Matt Stafford +700) – that present solid value heading into the 2014 NFL season:
•Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts (+1,800)
Luck was seventh in the league in passing last season, tossing for 4,596 yards, but had his top target taken away from him when WR Reggie Wayne went down with a season-ending injury in Week 7. The Colts added WR Hakeem Nicks and drafted WR Donte Moncrief in the third round, bolstering a receiving corps that also features breakout star WR T.Y. Hilton and a potent TE combo in Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen.
Outside of matchups with Cincinnati and Houston, Indianapolis doesn’t face any elite pass defenses in 2014, setting Luck up for a big season in Year 3. The Colts will be at the top of the AFC South and more than likely contending for home field in the conference. A Week 1 showdown in Denver, versus Peyton Manning, could get the ball rolling on Luck’s career year.
•Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys (+2,000)
Romo threw the ball 535 times in 2013, a drop from his 648 pass attempts in 2012. Sure, he missed the final game of the year and RB DeMarco Murray demanded his share of touches, but Dallas still runs a pass-happy offense as long as Jason Garrett is bumbling the playbook. Remember, Romo passed for 4,903 yards in 2012 – just 46 yards behind Manning.
Romo is coming off back surgery but says he’s going to be better than ever this season. He certainly has the talent around him to challenge for the passing title. Top receiver Dez Bryant is emerging as an elite force, TE Jason Witten is about as secure a safety blanket as you can find, and even Murray is a threat to catch passes. And with a defense that gave up a record number of yards last year, Romo will be called upon to carry the team most weeks.
•Nick Foles, Philadelphia Eagles (+2,500)
There’s no denying the Eagles offense is going to put up some monster numbers in 2014. Philadelphia is another year into Chip Kelly’s high-octane attack and Foles is the man in Philly, after splitting snaps with Mike Vick and missing time with a concussion in 2013. Despite those setbacks, Foles led the league in yards per pass (8.8), was sixth in passing touchdowns (29), and threw for 3,086 yards despite attempting only 350 passes – tied for 25th (with Ryan Fitzpatrick). The Eagles were among the most run-heavy teams in the NFL (passing only 52.97 percent of the time) and some of that had to do with the instability at QB.
Philadelphia did drop home-run hitter DeSean Jackson this offseason, who topped the team with 1,385 yards receiving in 2013. But, as Kelly proved in his time at Oregon, this is a system that can plug in random parts and produce. Expect stud running back LeSean McCoy to catch more passes and rookie WR Jordan Matthews to emerge as a big weapon for the Eagles – all the while boosting Foles’ stats.
'BETCHA DIDN'T KNOW'
Vegas Insider Ryan Taylor
Contrary to popular opinion there's money to be made during the National Football League preseason. One of the tools I use in my handicapping approach is our Library of Trends stored in our Huge database, and Situation Analysis in order to develop proven betting systems that have survived the test of time.
As I have stated on several occasions, you shouldn't just limit yourself to one facet of sports handicapping when wagering your hard earned money. However, I've taken the time to share some extremely profitable betting systems during the NFL preseason that can serve you well as a fundamental starting point. All of this information is originated from "World Renowned Sports Expert" Stan 'The Man’s software, and only a handful of professional sports handicappers in the country currently possess.
•Any NFL preseason away underdog of 3.5 or less that's coming off a straight up favorite loss by 10-points or more, versus an opponent coming off a SU&ATS win is 23-4 ATS (85.2%) since 1980.
•Any NFL preseason away underdog of 7.0 or more, versus an opponent coming off a SU&ATS win in which they covered by 5.5 or more, has gone 19-9 ATS (67.9%) since 1980.
•Any NFL preseason away underdog that's coming off 2 consecutive wins, versus an opponent coming off a win by 10-points or more, has gone 22-6 ATS (78.5%) since 1994.
•Any NFL preseason underdog of 6.5 or more that's coming off a loss by 10-points or more, versus an opponent coming off a SU&ATS win has gone 20-5 ATS (83.3%) since 1980.
Preseason Incredible Stat
Systems Analyst Larry Hertner
The Kansas City Chiefs are just 7-33 against the spread in preseason games (17.5%) the last 10 years, including 0-15 ATS versus a foe off an ATS win. At their best, the Chiefs are playoff-caliber. The Chiefs proved it a season ago with their sound, stout play en route to a wild card berth. The Chiefs forced 36 turnovers and committed a mere 18. Their defense proved too tough for weaker opposition. By early November, the Chiefs were 9-0 and had all but made the postseason. However, the Chiefs had peaked early. They won just two of their final eight games, including a 45-44 playoff loss at Indianapolis marked by Kansas City blowing a 28-point third-quarter lead.
In the end, there was no doubting where the Chiefs fit in the NFL’s power structure. They were much stronger than the league’s weakest outfits, but they just couldn’t handle stepping up in class. The Chiefs were 10-0 against clubs who missed the postseason but just 1-6 against playoff entrants, with the lone victory against Philadelphia in September. With seven games against 2013 playoff teams, including league elites Seattle, San Francisco, New England and Denver, the Chiefs must fare better against top competition if they are to improve upon their work from a season ago.
Preseason – 'Awesome Angles’
Systems Analyst James Vogel
The Hall of Fame Game has traditionally kicked off the preseason schedule since the NFL and AFL merger in 1971. Prior to the merger the game was played in September during the final week of the preseason slate, beginning in 1962 when the New York Giants and St. Louis Cardinals played to a 21-21 tie. There were some asterisks to be noted since the event’s inception. The game wasn’t held in 1966 but resumed immediately after in 1967. It also wasn’t played in 2011 due to the NFL lockout resulting from a labor dispute between the players union and management. On 2 separate occasions (1980 & 2003) the game was halted in the 4th quarter and subsequently discontinued because of severe weather conditions.
•Take Me From The Hall Of Fame
I have taken the time to track how teams have done in their next contest following the Hall of Fame Game. The general rule of thumb is that participants in the Hall of Fame Game face opponents in the following week which are playing their preseason opener.
Once again we’re relying on our trusted database here at WWW.StatSystemsSports.net to provide me with those results.
Please keep in mind that our database only has preseason data that dates back to the beginning of the 1983 campaign. However, it’s a proven fact that teams that have played in this annual game in Canton, Ohio, have been extremely profitable in their following game.
•A Different Agenda After Playing In Canton
One of the most simple, yet profitable NFL preseason Situational Analysis, involves teams that have played in the Hall of Fame Game. Any team that played in the Hall of Fame Game in their previous contest, versus an opponent playing their first preseason game of the year has gone 54-27-5 ATS (66.7%), and 56-30 straight up (65.1%) since 1983. The situation becomes even more profitable when adding a couple more variables.
If those teams are coming off a straight-up and against the spread loss they improve to 29-11 ATS (72.5%), and 28-12 SU (70%) since 1983. If those teams failed to cover in the Hall of Fame contest by 15.5 points or less, they improve to 24-5 SU and ATS (82.8%) since 1987. Last season saw this exact situation occur, and it produced an easy winner. The Miami Dolphins lost to the Dallas Cowboys 24-20 as a 3.0-point favorite in Canton. The following week Miami was a 1.5 point favorite at Jacksonville, and went on to hammer the Jaguars 27-3 while easily covering the number.
•Keeping A Close Eye On This Year
This season’s Hall of Fame Game takes place on Sunday August 3rd between the Buffalo Bills and the New York Giants. Buffalo will travel to Carolina the following Friday to take on the Panthers, while the Giants will host the Pittsburgh Steelers the following night. Just in case you were wondering. The Giants have gone 6-3 SU and ATS over their last 9-years under head coach Tom Coughlin in their 2nd preseason game.
The Bills won and covered last season over the Minnesota Viking in their 2nd preseason game for first year head coach Doug Marrone. It’s never too early to make money in the NFL, but despite any highly profitable preseason situations that I share, I would suggest to always stay on the conservative side at this time of the year. There are just way too many miscellaneous intangibles and variables that take place in these games to justify any type of significant wager.
•An Inexact Science
There's no denying that in the grand scheme of things, NFL preseason results have no bearing on what we can expect to see in the regular season. However, as long as Las Vegas continues to put out a point-spread, and total on each preseason contest, then there's certainly an opportunity to make money. Before I get into some Situational Analysis that have been profitable over the years, I always advise clients and readers alike to proceed with caution at this time of the year. I always recommend wagering no more than 1.25% of your total bankroll per game during the preseason. There are just too many intangibles and variables to account for compared to regular season action.
•Dress Rehearsals
It's been pretty standard tradition amongst NFL head coaches over the years to use their next to last preseason game as a dress rehearsal for the upcoming regular season. There are certainly exceptions to the rule in that regard. Jeff Fisher for example has been a proponent of using the last preseason game in order to get his projected starters the most prepared for regular season action. Fisher has exhibited that practice during his 15-years as head coach in Tennessee, and in his current tenure as the boss in St. Louis. Then we have the annual isolated instances of the teams that play in the Hall of Fame Game that play 5-games compared to the 4-games in which the other 30-teams play. We will touch upon that later in this article.
•Away Favorites Ready for the Real Show
Keeping in mind that 30 of the 32-teams in the NFL play 4-games during the preseason annually, and Game #3 in the majority of instances are used for their final tune up before it counts for real. Since the 1983 preseason, away favorites have been a very profitable play when playing in Game #3 of the preseason. During that time away favorites have gone 52-33 ATS (61.2%). We can tighten that up even more to make it an extremely profitable situation. Away favorites of 5.0 or less that are coming off a straight up loss in their previous game have gone 24-9 ATS (72.7%) during that same time span.
The logic here is quite clear in my eyes. The odds-makers know that teams treat this game as close to a regular season game as you will get. Sticking with the theme of respecting their ability to set a line with the utmost accuracy, they clearly feel that the away team in this situation isn't only superior, but also possesses the best intangible and miscellaneous edges. For lack of a better phrase, "the proof is in the pudding".
•Hall of Fame Game Participants
Each preseason we have two teams that take part in the annual Hall of Fame Game in Canton, Ohio, that use their 4th game in their 5-game schedule, as their final dress rehearsal. These teams have been traditionally a fade in these situations. Hall of Fame Game participants that are playing in their 4th preseason game have gone a miserable 57-81 ATS (41.3%) since 1983. If those teams are playing on the road they fall to 10-30 ATS (25%), and 8-32 (20%) straight up since 1993. The conclusion I draw from these results keep with the theme of keeping it simple. These two clubs had to report to training camp a week or more before the rest of the NFL teams. As a result of the rigors of training camp, and having to travel to play this late in the preseason campaign has taken a toll.
•Do It To Me One More Time
Sometimes the price you’re asked to pay for success turns out to be a bargain. And in today’s economy, we’ll take all the bargains we can find. Take the case of NFL teams that have just enjoyed winning back-to-back home games during the preseason. One might think these teams are primed for a letdown. That’s because teams in this role are a solid 46-25-1 ATS when taking to the road off a pair of home victories in the preseason since 1983, including a glittering 7-2 ATS performance the last three seasons. Better yet, send them away off a double-digit win and they’re a 26-9 ATS winning proposition.
Dress these same guys up as dogs and they respond like a pack of hungry canines, going 19-5 ATS. Incidentally, there is also a 15-0 ATS PERFECT subset contained inside this situation that occurs whenever our qualifying team failed to cover their previous home victory by 15 or more points. Here is a list of the eight NFL teams that will take to the road off back-to-back home games this preseason: 8/22 – Carolina at New England and Chicago at Seattle; 8/23 – Washington at Baltimore, Minnesota at Kansas City and St. Louis at Cleveland; 8/28 – Indianapolis at Cincinnati, New England at NY Giants, San Francisco at Houston and Seattle at Oakland.
**PRESEASON FAST FACT: New England has gone a perfect 0-8 ATS since ’08 as a preseason favorite of more than 3 points.
Preseason Coaching Records
If you’re looking to make a quick score before the start of the 2014 National Football League season then look no further than the coaches and their preseason tendencies. It appears coaches like Jim Caldwell, Joe Philbin, Mike Smith and Ken Whisenhunt don’t put much stock in exhibition play, as evidenced by their collective 19-51 SU and 22-45-2 ATS career marks during the preseason. The same, however, cannot be said for Pete Carroll, Jim Harbaugh and Sean Payton, who together are 45-29 SU and 49-24-2 ATS throughout the preseason. Then there’s Marvin Lewis, the epitome of consistency throughout his NFL career during the preseason, with repeating 23-22 SU, ATS and Over/Under marks.
And if your cup of tea is 'Totals' take a look at the defensive priorities of Mike Tomlin and Jim Harbaugh – who together have played 15-24-2 to the UNDER in their preseason games. On the other side of the coin, coaches like Jim Caldwell, Pete Carroll, Mike McCarthy and Rex Ryan seem more interested in fine-tuning the offense, going 56-28 OVER the total collectively in exhibition games.
Note:Over/Under records are since 1999. Over/Under records with an asterisk (*) represents the coaches’ totals performance in preseason games since 1999 only. All other results are as an NFL head coach throughout his career. All Best/Worst Role results below are ATS, unless noted otherwise.
TEAM/COACH - SU, ATS, O/U, BEST/WORSE ROLE
•AZ - Bruce Arians 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 1-3 O/U, 2-0 away.
•ATL - Mike Smith 7-17 SU, 9-13-2 ATS, 11-12-1 O/U, 5-1 off SU favorite loss.
•BAL - John Harbaugh 15-9 SU, 13-11 ATS, 12-12 O/U, 1-6 off DD ATS win.
•BUF - Doug Marrone 2-2 SU, 1-2-1 ATS, 2-2 O/U, 0-2 vs. opponent off SU win.
•CAR - Ron Rivera 6-6 SU, 7-5 ATS, 6-6 O/U, 5-1 if total is 36 points or less.
•CHI - Marc Trestman 2-2SU, 1-3 ATS, 3-1 O/U, 0-2 dog.
•CIN - Marvin Lewis 23-22 SU, 23-22 ATS, 23-22 O/U, 1-6 vs. opponent off DD ATS win.
•DAL - Jason Garrett 7-6 SU, 5-8 ATS, 6-7 O/U, 1-5 SU/ATS off SU win.
•DEN - John Fox 25-23 SU, 21-26-1 ATS, 26-21-1 O/U, 0-8-1 vs. opponent off SU favorite loss.
•DET - Jim Caldwell 2-10 SU, 4-8 ATS, 8-4 O/U, 1-5 SU/ATS if total is 36 points or less.
•GB - Mike McCarthy 15-17 SU, 15-17 ATS, 21-11 O/U, 5-1 SU/ATS off SU DD loss.
•IND - Chuck Pagano 4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS, 4-4 O/U, 5-1 SU/ATS if not dog 3 points or less.
•JAC - Gus Bradley 1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS, 2-2 O/U, 0-3 SU/ATS pick or dog.
•KC - Andy Reid 27-33 SU, 27-30-3 ATS, *33-25-2 O/U, 5-0 dog 4 points or more.
•MIA - Joe Philbin 2-7 SU, 1-8 ATS, 5-4 O/U, 0-6 vs. opponent Game Two or later.
•NE - Bill Belichick 42-35 SU, 38-33-6 ATS, *29-27-1 O/U, 7-1-1 vs. opponent off BB SU losses.
•NO - Sean Payton 16-13 SU, 18-11 ATS, 14-12-3 O/U, 10-1 vs. opponent off SU loss.
•NYG - Tom Coughlin 38-35 SU, 36-33-4 ATS, *27-29 O/U, 5-0 off BB SU/ATS wins.
•NYJ - Rex Ryan 9-11 SU, 10-10 ATS, 14-6 O/U, 0-5 SU/ATS Game One.
•OAK - Dennis Allen 2-6 SU, 3-5 ATS, 5-3 O/U, 1-4 dog 4 points or more.
•PHI - Chip Kelly 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 3-1 O/U, 2-0 SU/ATS if total is 40 points or more.
•PIT - Mike Tomlin 19-10 SU, 14-14-1 ATS, 11-17-1 O/U, 5-1 if total is 37 points or more.
•STL - Jeff Fisher 37-35 SU, 36-34-2 ATS, *34-23 O/U, 5-0 dog vs. opponent off SU/ATS win.
•SD - Mike McCoy 1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS, 3-1 O/U, 2-0 away/0-2 home.
•SF - Jim Harbaugh 8-4 SU, 8-4 ATS, 4-7-1 O/U, 4-0 SU/ATS off SU loss.
•SEA - Pete Carroll 21-12 SU, 23-9-1 ATS, *13-7 O/U, 11-1 vs. opponent off SU win.
•TB - Lovie Smith 19-18 SU, 18-18-1 ATS, 20-17 O/U, 5-1 off SU dog win.
•TEN - Ken Whisenhunt 8-17 SU, 8-16-1 ATS, 13-12 O/U, 1-8 vs. opponent off SU/ATS loss.
Preseason Report - AFC
Lead Sports Writer Todd Smith
AFC East
•Buffalo Bills
Head Coach: Doug Marrone
Quarterback Rotation: E.J. Manuel, Jeff Tuel, Dennis Dixon, Thad Lewis
Doug Marrone enters his second season as Buffalo’s head coach. He’s been in the NFL for seven years, from 2006-08 he served as the offensive coordinator of the New Orleans Saints after a four-year span as the offensive line coach of the New York Jets (2002-05). With this being only Doug Marrone’s second year as a Head Coach: we don’t have much to go on for his preseason trends – however I’ve isolated something that may give us a solid play for the Bills this preseason. Since he's still a fairly new head coach, I can see Marrone wanting to impress the home crowd in his first home game this preseason and this is backed by a strong recent trend for the Bills in the preseason – as Buffalo is 4-0 against the spread in their first home preseason game of the year last four years.
•New York Jets
Head Coach: Rex Ryan
Quarterback Rotation: Geno Smith, Michael Vick, Matt Simms, Tajh Boyd (Rookie Clemson)
The Jets have been consistent in their first and last preseason games over the last four years. Rex Ryan has never put any effort in the Jets opening preseason game, evidenced by their 0-4 against the spread. While in their last preseason game of the year Ryan and the Jets defensive coaches sure take the day off as the Jets have seen the OVER go 4-0 since 2010. So right off the bat here we have a perfect 8-0 trend on the Jets to keep an eye on this preseason.
•Miami Dolphins
Head Coach: Joe Philbin
Quarterback Rotation: Ryan Tannehill, Matt Moore, Pat Devlin, Brock Jensen – (Rookie - North Dakota State)
This will be Philbin’s third year as head coach of the Dolphins, after going over his first two preseason campaigns, it’s very apparent that he puts very little effort into winning these meaningless games. In his first nine preseason games the Dolphins are a woeful 1-8 against the spread with their only win coming against the hapless Jaguars. So let’s make the Dolphins a definite fade this preseason.
•New England Patriots
Head Coach: Bill Belichick
Quarterback Rotation: Tom Brady, Ryan Mallett, Jimmy Garoppolo (Rookie - Eastern Illinois)
Here is one of my top rated preseason plays, and it focuses on coach Bill Belichick and the Patriots. Belichick has never liked to give anything away to his opponents – just look at one of his press conferences to see what I mean – well something shows up in the preseason every year from New England that we can take advantage of. Week#3 of the preseason is when all teams do their dress rehearsal for the season with all starters on both sides of the ball playing into the third quarter.
Well again Belichick doesn’t want his regular season Week #1 opponent to get any films to look at so he doesn’t take this game seriously – and it show shows up in the point spread logs as the Patriots over the past six seasons are a dismal 0-6 against the spread in this situation. Just to give you an example of how strong this is in last year’s dress rehearsal against the Lions, the Patriots were crushed 40-9 as one-point underdogs. So mark down Aug. 22 on your calendar as the Patriots host Carolina in their dress rehearsal game this year.
AFC North
•Cleveland Browns
Head Coach: Mike Pettine
Quarterback Rotation: Brian Hoyer, Johnny Manziel (R Texas A&M), Tyler Thigpen, Connor Shaw (Rookie South Carolina)
With Pettine’s specialty being defense – let’s keep an eye out on the Browns UNDER this preseason – as he may concentrate on what he knows best trying to build the team. Another strong trend that has developed for Cleveland is its dress rehearsal games. The Browns are 0-3, losing all of these games both straight up and against the spread with the UNDER also going 3-0. One other note – when you see that Johnny Football will be getting the majority of the playing time in any of these Cleveland preseason games – I feel the Browns will be a solid bet – as his style will be perfect to easily move the ball up and down the field especially against the substitutes.
•Pittsburgh Steelers
Head Coach: Mike Tomlin
Quarterback Rotation: Ben Roethlisberger, Bruce Gradkowski, Landry Jones, Brandon Kay (Rookie Cincinnati)
The new CBA rules sure took its effect on the Steelers in last year’s preseason – with Tomlin not being able to incorporate his usual intense training camp, and it showed on the field as the Steelers went 0-4 both straight up and against the spread. Something to watch for as the preseason starts this year. Plus the Steelers are on a 0-4 run in their preseason home games over the past two years all as a favorite, and 1-7 ATS overall.
•Cincinnati Bengals
Head Coach: Marvin Lewis
Quarterback Rotation: Andy Dalton, Jason Campbell, AJ McCarron (Rookie Alabama), Matt Scott
With the Bengals being a consistent playoff team – Lewis doesn’t take these preseason games too seriously – however a strong trend has developed in the Bengals first home preseason game over the past four years – where the Bengals are a perfect 4-0 both straight up and against the spread – so it sure looks like Lewis wants to win this first home game for the fans. The Bengals first home game this year is on Aug. 14 versus the Jets.
•Baltimore Ravens
Head Coach: John Harbaugh
Quarterback Rotation: Joe Flacco, Tyrod Taylor, Keith Wenning (Rookie Ball State)
Here we have another team that has been effected with the new CBA rule changes – Harbaugh and the Ravens used to be a strong bet in the preseason as they mostly played low-scoring games making the UNDER the way to go. However with the less intense training camp routines now in place, the Ravens have seen the OVER go a money making 7-1 the past two preseason’s. Strong trend to watch for again this year!
AFC South
•Houston Texans
Head Coach: Bill O’Brien
Quarterback Rotation: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Case Keenum, Tom Savage (R Pittsburgh)
O’Brien’s offensive experience may help us make some money with the Texans this preseason – As I found that Houston as seen the OVER be the winning play in their first preseason game the last 4 years. Plus the Texans have seen the OVER go 6-2 the past two years. So let’s look for some high-scoring games form the Texans this preseason.
•Indianapolis Colts
Head Coach: Chuck Pagano
Quarterback Rotation: Andrew Luck, Matt Hasselbeck, Chandler Harnish
With Pagano as head coach, the Colts sure like to play a very wide-open game in their first preseason game of the year – as over the past two years a combined average of 52 points have been scored. And what a perfect opponent to open up with this year as the Jets, who have watched the OVER go 4-0 in their preseason games from a year ago. This year’s opening preseason game against the Jets will be played on Aug. 7.
•Jacksonville Jaguars
Head Coach: Gus Bradley
Quarterback Rotation: Chad Henne, Blake Bortles (Rookie UCF), Ricky Stanzi, Stephen Morris (Rookie Miami)
The Jaguars have lost their dress rehearsal game in 2011 and 2012, and Gus Bradley sure continued this trend in his first year as head coach in 2013 as the Jaguars gave up 34 points against the Eagles in another double-digit loss. Let’s look for this strong trend to continue this season as Jacksonville pays a visit to Detroit on Aug. 22 for their dress rehearsal game. Plus, I have to add here that the Jaguars sure weren’t ready to play in their opening preseason game with Bradley as they were dominated at home against the Dolphins 27-3. Jacksonville’s first preseason game this year is on Aug. 8 against the Buccaneers (Tampa Bay is one of my strongest preseason plays as it’s a money making 6-2 ATS in its first preseason game) a perfect fit here against an underachieving Jaguars squad.
•Tennessee Titans
Head Coach: Ken Whisenhunt
Quarterback Rotation: Jake Locker, Charlie Whitehurst, Tyler Wilson, Zach Mettenberger (Rookie LSU)
The Titans lost three of their four preseason games last season – this may be something to watch for again this year – as in his last year as the head coach of the Cardinals back in 2012, Whisenhunt went a perfect 0-4 against the spread. Plus Whisenhunt in his final two years as head coach in the preseason saw six of his last eight games go OVER the posted total.
AFC West
•Denver Broncos
Head Coach: John Fox
Quarterback Rotation: Payton Manning, Brock Osweiler, Zac Dysert, Bryn Renner (Rookie North Carolina)
Strong trend has developed since John Fox has taken over as the head coach of the Broncos, as Denver has come out strong in their opening preseason game going a perfect 3-0 with all three wins as an underdog. This preseason the Broncos open up against the Super Bowl champions Seahawks – who may have the Super Bowl hangover coming into this preseason. Plus the opposite is sure true in the Broncos dress rehearsal game under Fox where Denver has failed to cover the spread in all three games. This year’s dress rehearsal game is on Aug. 23 against Houston.
•Kansas City Chiefs
Head Coach: Andy Reid
Quarterback Rotation: Alex Smith, Chase Daniel, Tyler Bray, Aaron Murray (Rookie Georgia)
Kansas City has been one of the best fade teams in the preseason going an incredible 6-23 against the spread over the past seven years. I definitely look for more of the same this year as I look for Andy Reid to continue the tradition in Kansas City of not caring about these preseason games. Take a close look at the Chiefs first preseason game this year as Reid is 1-8 against the spread in his last nine opening preseason games in Philadelphia and Kansas City. Kansas City opens up this year at home against Cincinnati on Aug. 7.
•Oakland Raiders
Head Coach: Dennis Allen
Quarterback Rotation: Matt Schaub, Derek Carr (Rookie Fresno State), Matt McGloin, Trent Edwards
Allen has continued the Raiders losing ways in the preseason already losing six of the Raiders eight preseason games with him calling the shots. Plus no matter whom the head coach is of Oakland they always seem to finish the preseason on a down note – as in the past seven years they are a perfect 0-7 against the spread in their last preseason game of the year. This year’s finale for the Raiders is on Aug. 28 against the Seahawks at home.
•San Diego Chargers
Head Coach: Mike McCoy
Quarterback Rotation: Philip Rivers, Kellen Clemens, Brad Sorensen
Now in his second season in San Diego, you can’t forget that Mike McCoy came from Denver where he was the offensive coordinator for the high powered Broncos offense. I’m curious to see what numbers the oddsmakers put up on the San Diego totals this preseason. As last preseason the Chargers under McCoy saw the OVER go 3-1. With McCoy’s offensive background watch for San Diego to continue their high scoring ways this preseason.
_________________________________________________
Preseason Report - NFC
Expert Handicapper Jude Ravo
NFC East
•Dallas Cowboys
Head Coach: Jason Garrett
Quarterback Rotation: Tony Romo, Brandon Weeden, Caleb Hanie, Dustin Vaughan (Rookie West Texas A&M)
Garrett and the Cowboys have not fared well in the preseason going 4-8 against the spread in their last 12 regular preseason games. Plus a total trend to watch for this preseason is that the Cowboys seem to just want to go thru the motions in their final game as the UNDER has gone 3-1 the last four years.
•New York Giants
Head Coach: Tom Coughlin
Quarterback Rotation: Eli Manning, Ryan Nassib, Curtis Painter
A solid money-making trend has shown up for the Giants as of late as Tom Coughlin in the past four years has seemed to put no effort in the Giants dress rehearsal game as the Giants are 0-4 both straight up and against the spread. This year’s dress rehearsal game is on Aug. 22 against the Jets.
•Philadelphia Eagles
Head Coach: Chip Kelly
Quarterback Rotation: Nick Foles, Mark Sanchez, Matt Barkley, G. J. Kinne
There is not too much to look at for any preseason trends for head coach Chip Kelly. In his first year the Eagles went 2-2 both straight up and against the spread. However, the OVER went 3-1 in those games, which is something to keep an eye on as the Eagles preseason begins. Also, one thing that carried over from the Reid era is that the Eagles again lost their first preseason game which makes them 1-8 against the spread in the last nine opening preseason encounters. Philadelphia’s preseason opener this year is on Aug. 8 at Chicago.
•Washington Redskins
Head Coach: Jay Gruden
Quarterback Rotation: Robert Griffin III, Kirk Cousins, Colt McCoy
Some solid trends going for the Redskins that Jay Gruden may want to build on. Washington went a perfect 4-0 both straight up and against the spread in last year’s preseason games, and they also have been money in their dress rehearsal games the last four years going 4-0 against the spread. This year’s dress rehearsal game for the Redskins is on Aug. 23 at Baltimore.
NFC North
•Chicago Bears
Head Coach: Marc Trestman
Quarterback Rotation: Jay Cutler, Jimmy Clausen, Jordan Palmer, David Fales (Rookie San Jose State)
In Trestman’s first year as head coach of the Bears – his prior offensive coordinator experience paid off as three of the four Bears games saw the OVER connect. In their dress rehearsal game against the Raiders the Bears scored a whopping 34 points. So let’s look for more wide-open play from Chicago as we head into this year’s preseason.
•Detroit Lions
Head Coach: Jim Caldwell
Quarterback Rotation: Matthew Stafford, Kellen Moore, Dan Orlovsky, James Franklin (Rookie Missouri)
In the past two preseasons the Lions saw the OVER go a money making 6-2 – something I feel will continue with Caldwell now the Lions new head coach. Let’s not forget Caldwell tutored a pair of quality quarterbacks Peyton Manning and Joe Flacco – So offense is his forte. Just keep an eye on how the Lions come out offensively in their early preseason games.
•Green Bay Packers
Head Coach: Mike McCarthy
Quarterback Rotation: Aaron Rodgers, Matt Flynn, Scott Tolzien, Chase Rettig (Rookie Boston College)
Mike McCarthy and the Packers used to have a great preseason trend where the OVER hit at a super high rate – however the oddsmakers have finally caught up with this trend and now overvalue the OVER posted in the Green Bay games – resulting in the UNDER going 6-2 in the past two preseason’s. So I would recommend that you take advantage of these high posted totals and lean towards the UNDER going forward. Plus another trend to watch this preseason is that the Packers have lost their opening preseason game the past four years. This year’s opener is on Aug. 9 at Tennessee.
•Minnesota Vikings
Head Coach: Mike Zimmer
Quarterback Rotation: Christian Ponder, Matt Cassel, Teddy Bridgewater (Rookie Louisville)
With Mike Zimmer taking over as coach of the Vikings, look for defense to be the forefront this preseason as Zimmer has been a defensive coordinator the last 14 years in the NFL. In his last two seasons as coordinator of the Bengals the UNDER was the easy winner in the Bengals dress rehearsal games. Look for this to continue this year in the Vikings dress rehearsal game on Aug. 23 at Kansas City.
NFC South
•Atlanta Falcons
Head Coach: Mike Smith
Quarterback Rotation: Matt Ryan, T.J. Yates, Sean Renfree, Jeff Mathews (Rookie Cornell)
One of my favorite preseason plays goes here on the Falcons as in their 'dress rehearsal' game. In the last nine years, the Falcons have gone 8-1 outscoring their opposition 203-88 not counting the 2011 abnormal preseason. This year’s 'dress rehearsal' game for the Falcons will be on Aug. 23 when they play Tennessee at home. After last year’s down season I really look for the Falcons to be very motivated coming into this dress rehearsal game and use it as a starting point to get the season on a winning note.
However if we take a look at the whole body of work for the Falcons over the past two preseason’s we will see that they have lost seven of their eight preseason games played – with their only win coming in the above mentioned dress rehearsal game. And one last thing about Atlanta here is that in their first preseason encounter the past three years they have been dominated losing all while allowing 34, 31, and 28 points, which also made all three of these games fly OVER the posted total.
•Carolina Panthers
Head Coach: Ron Rivera
Quarterback Rotation: Cam Newton (Injury- Ankle), Derek Anderson, Matt Blanchard, Joe Webb
A couple of trends have started to develop with Rivera settling in as head coach in the preseason for the Panthers. First off Rivera seems to want to look good in his dress rehearsal game going 2-0 the past two years. While in the fourth and final game, Rivera seems to just want to get this game over with as the UNDER has been the winning play the past two years. Both of these preseason finales have been against the Steelers which they finish up again on Aug. 28.
•New Orleans Saints
Head Coach: Sean Payton
Quarterback Rotation: Drew Brees, Ryan Griffin, Luke McCown, Logan Kilgore (Rookie Middle Tennessee State)
A strong preseason trend we can follow with the Saints as their high octane offense sure gears up as the preseason progresses. In the past four seasons the Saints have seen the OVER go a perfect 8-0 in their last two preseason games (Week #3 & #4) of the year with 51, 57, 60, 41, 51, 61, 54, and 45 points scored. This year the Saints finish up with Indianapolis on Aug. 23 and Baltimore on Aug. 28.
•Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Head Coach: Lovie Smith
Quarterback Rotation: Mike Glennon, Mike Kafka, Josh McCown, Alex Tanney
In his last two years in Chicago Lovie Smith had winning preseason’s going 6-2 against the spread. I can see him wanting to get a winning attitude right off the bat in Tampa Bay – so let’s look for the Buccaneers to be a team to bet this preseason. Plus the Buccaneers used to be one of my favorite trend plays in the preseason as they were 6-2 against the spread in their first preseason game – this might be something to look into as Smith will want to win his first game as the Buccaneers head coach, especially in front of the home crowd on Aug. 8th against the Eagles.
NFC West
•Arizona Cardinals
Head Coach: Bruce Arians
Quarterback Rotation: Carson Palmer, Drew Stanton, Ryan Lindley, Logan Thomas (Rookie Virginia Tech)
Only one year of stats for Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians for us to look at, however Arizona went 3-1 both straight up and against the spread in its four preseason’s games from a year ago, with the UNDER also going 3-1. Something to keep an eye out for as this year’s preseason begins.
•San Francisco 49ers
Head Coach: Jim Harbaugh
Quarterback Rotation: Colin Kaepernick, Josh Johnson, Blaine Gabbert, McLeod Bethel-Thompson, Kory Faulkner (Rookie Southern Illinois)
Whether its preseason or regular season games, Jim Harbaugh wants to win every time his team takes the field. This sure has been a solid money maker the last two preseason’s as the 49ers have gone 6-2 both straight up and against the spread. It is also important to post here that in this same timeframe San Francisco has seen the UNDER be the right play on both of their first two preseason encounters the past two years – while just the opposite is true as in their dress rehearsal game and final preseason contest the OVER was the winning play. Making for a solid 8-0 run for us to look forward to this year.
•Seattle Seahawks
Head Coach: Pete Carroll
Quarterback Rotation: Russell Wilson, Tarvaris Jackson, Terrelle Pryor, B. J. Daniels
Usually we like to fade the Super Bowl champions in the proceeding preseason – as how can a team be up for these early meaningless games. However if there is one exception it’s sure the Seahawks under Carroll – as Seattle is a money making 11-1 both straight up and against the spread the past three years. Top rated preseason trend in effect here especially when you throw in this year’s quarterback rotation.
•St. Louis Rams
Head Coach: Jeff Fisher
Quarterback Rotation: Sam Bradford, Shaun Hill, Garrett Gilbert (Rookie SMU), Austin Davis
In his return to coaching Jeff Fisher has already shown us a trend that can help make us some money this preseason – as the OVER has gone 6-2 in the eight preseason games the Rams have played with Fisher calling the shots. The one other trend I found was that Fisher sure tries in the Rams dress rehearsal game where St. Louis is a perfect 2-0 ATS with both of these games being played on the road – this year’s dress rehearsal game is on the road again as the Rams visit Cleveland on Aug. 23.
______________________________________________
2014 NFL Preseason Over/Unders
Systems Analyst William Stillman
Welcome back Totals players! Our favorite time of the year is once again upon us. You’ll notice that just like in last season’s Preseason Edition here at StatSystemsSports.net, we like talking ‘TOTALS’. And there are a handful of Over/Under situations in which we can indeed turn a profit on... even in the National Football League exhibition season. The games might not count for the players and coaches (in terms of wins and losses)... but they certainly DO for the bettors!
We start with the best Home and Road OVER + UNDER teams in the last few seasons. After that, we take a look at individual team Over/Under tendencies broken down by Game Number. We then conclude with some of the more noticeable Over/Under patterns in regards to preseason series histories. I think we’ve got it all covered! “Enjoy, and as always the very best of luck” – William!
•BEST Home and Road OVER and UNDER Teams
Best Home Over teams – Over the last four seasons, the best Over team at home has been the Denver Broncos. They’ve gone 7-1 Over/Under (88% Overs) at Sports Authority Field. Average Over/Under line: 38.5. Average total points: 46.8. The average Bronco home game has gone Over by +8.3 points. Right behind them at the #2 spot is the Detroit Lions. In the same 4-year time frame, the Lions have gone 6-1-1 Over/Under (86% Overs) and the average total points in those games has been a very high (for preseason) 49.0. Last year, both Lion home games went Over (43 and 49 points respectively).
Taking our database query a little farther back in the past, we find the Jacksonville Jaguars and New England Patriot. Both teams have gone 11-4 Over/Under at home (73% Overs) since the 2006 season. Jacksonville home games have averaged 42.1 PPG in this time frame. New England's home encounters have averaged 43.9 ppg in that same 8-year stretch. And both of their home games went Over last season (47.0 ppg). Honorable mention: Houston: 5-1-1 Over/Under last 4 years (42.0)... Baltimore: 5-1 Over/Under last 3 years (54.0!)... Cleveland: 4-1-1 Over/Under last 3 years (43.8).