Stat computation for mlb

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FANBOUTS

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I created a software that can compute team off and def stats as well as stats on pitchers. Stats like pitch to run ratio on pitchers. How many pitches do they throw between runs on average? What is their avg. pitch count on the road, at home? How many pitches does a team need on AVG. to finish a game? What percent of the pitches are thrown by the starter? What percent by the bullpen. What is the bullpen's pitch to run ratio? What is the bullpen's avg. pitch count per game?

For Offense how many pitches does a team force their opp to throw on Average to complete a game. What is the teams runs scored - pitches forced ratio? How many pitches does the team see between runs on average? How many pitches are seen between hits? How many hits does it take for the team to score a run on average?

There's a ton more. I created this program last season and I only followed a few teams cause the stats to enter for each team is long. There's like 20 - 30 different stats that need to be pulled from game logs for each team after they play.

Anyone willing to help enter stats this season will get access to the info. I'd like to follow the whole league this year. The info was killer on totals. PM me for more info on how you can help.
 

barman

Honey Badger Don't Give A Shit
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If you're seeking deep stats to buttress a handicapping strategy, Fangraphs and Baseball Reference have dozens and dozens of situational stats updated daily

The time you're investing to even attempt a personal replication of such info is a dubious choice so I offer friendly recommend that you dig into both sites and begin building a daily Results spreadsheet founded in any number of deep stats you find interesting.
 

FANBOUTS

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I'm familiar with all those sites. They are decent but they do not give you what you really need to beat MLB.

What you really need you can't get because they don't want you to have it but the public could put it together for themselves but it would take a coordinated, organized effort with the right kind of software.

What you need is to log every single play of every single game. There's a form to fill out that includes who the pitcher was and is L or R, who the batter was and is L OR R, what the count was, what kind of pitch it was, runners on base or not and which bases, the inning and the result of the play: Ball, strike, foul, hit(what kind?), error, runs scored if any.

You do that for every single pitch of every single game. That of course would take a few dozen people and have people assigned games to log and those stat people would need to fill out the form for each pitch. What that would give is a database rich in stats you can get nowhere else, even from those sites you mention.

We'd have pie charts on al pitchers in terms of the frequency they throw pitches. Charts on the freq for L and R hitters and Charts on the picth freq in different pitch counts. What the pitcher's pie chart is when the count is 0 - 2 or 3 - 1? We'd have all that. We'd have player batting averages in various counts vs various pitches. If the team is facing a sinker heavy pitcher we'd be able to pull up each batters avg vs the sinker. Do they hit the sinker or not? We'd know.

We'd have all kinds of stats on bullpens which if you know MLB, knowing bullpens has a lot to do with winning in MLB. We'd know who is available and who is not, we'd have ERAs on bullpen pitchers vs L and R batters, ERAs based on their weekly pitch count. Once they throw 10 pitches what happens to their ERA, how about 20 pitches? 30 pitches? We'd know how many pitches they've thrown, if they are available. We'd have all their pie charts same as starters.

We'd also keep track of home plate UMPS. What are their strike/ball ratios. We'd have strike/ball ratios on each kind of pitch. Some UMPS don't call the strike on that heavily breaking slider or curve. Some do. Some don't call the high fastball, some do. You may have a fastball pitcher vs an ump with a tiny zone on the fastball.

I've tried to get this going two years ago. Just couldn't find enough stat people. I mean you need to make a commitment to watch every single pitch of a baseball game and log the info needed. There would be enough time to do it between pitches. I can have some auto fill like the pitcher and batter and only change those when they change. I've started the software two years ago and stopped. I could finish if we can find enough people to enter stats. There's what 12 games nightly some nights less. We'd need 12 statters or howver many games their were and I know to get 12 nightly you need a list 4x that long so figure fifty people. Not to mention not every game is on in every market so we'd need people with the MLB ticket or people in various markets. If we did this though, could you imagine the stats at our fingertips? The info would blow baseball reference out of the water. Nobody gives you that because you'd win. You'd beat MLB.

For some reason when it is time to handicap we all go off into a dark corner because we don't want anyone to see what we are doing like it's some magic trick. In today's age of social media and community platforms, your avg. $25 and $50 bettors need to come together. If enough of us came together we can have enough synergy that no individual effort would do better than the group effort.
 

barman

Honey Badger Don't Give A Shit
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I'm familiar with all those sites. They are decent but they do not give you what you really need to beat MLB.

What you really need you can't get because they don't want you to have it but the public could put it together for themselves but it would take a coordinated, organized effort with the right kind of software.

What you need is to log every single play of every single game. There's a form to fill out that includes who the pitcher was and is L or R, who the batter was and is L OR R, what the count was, what kind of pitch it was, runners on base or not and which bases, the inning and the result of the play: Ball, strike, foul, hit(what kind?), error, runs scored if any.

You do that for every single pitch of every single game. That of course would take a few dozen people and have people assigned games to log and those stat people would need to fill out the form for each pitch. What that would give is a database rich in stats you can get nowhere else, even from those sites you mention.

We'd have pie charts on al pitchers in terms of the frequency they throw pitches. Charts on the freq for L and R hitters and Charts on the picth freq in different pitch counts. What the pitcher's pie chart is when the count is 0 - 2 or 3 - 1? We'd have all that. We'd have player batting averages in various counts vs various pitches. If the team is facing a sinker heavy pitcher we'd be able to pull up each batters avg vs the sinker. Do they hit the sinker or not? We'd know.

We'd have all kinds of stats on bullpens which if you know MLB, knowing bullpens has a lot to do with winning in MLB. We'd know who is available and who is not, we'd have ERAs on bullpen pitchers vs L and R batters, ERAs based on their weekly pitch count. Once they throw 10 pitches what happens to their ERA, how about 20 pitches? 30 pitches? We'd know how many pitches they've thrown, if they are available. We'd have all their pie charts same as starters.

We'd also keep track of home plate UMPS. What are their strike/ball ratios. We'd have strike/ball ratios on each kind of pitch. Some UMPS don't call the strike on that heavily breaking slider or curve. Some do. Some don't call the high fastball, some do. You may have a fastball pitcher vs an ump with a tiny zone on the fastball.

I've tried to get this going two years ago. Just couldn't find enough stat people. I mean you need to make a commitment to watch every single pitch of a baseball game and log the info needed. There would be enough time to do it between pitches. I can have some auto fill like the pitcher and batter and only change those when they change. I've started the software two years ago and stopped. I could finish if we can find enough people to enter stats. There's what 12 games nightly some nights less. We'd need 12 statters or howver many games their were and I know to get 12 nightly you need a list 4x that long so figure fifty people. Not to mention not every game is on in every market so we'd need people with the MLB ticket or people in various markets. If we did this though, could you imagine the stats at our fingertips? The info would blow baseball reference out of the water. Nobody gives you that because you'd win. You'd beat MLB.

For some reason when it is time to handicap we all go off into a dark corner because we don't want anyone to see what we are doing like it's some magic trick. In today's age of social media and community platforms, your avg. $25 and $50 bettors need to come together. If enough of us came together we can have enough synergy that no individual effort would do better than the group effort.

FG & BR chart every single stat you list above

It is updated via help of approx 5000 man hrs weekly

I wish you the best in replicating their info
 

Biz

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Dude there has got to be a better way than having people watch games and track these stats.
 

FANBOUTS

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Not if you want up to the second stats. How do you think MLB gets the stats. They have a rep at every game charting every play. It’s the only way to get all those key stats.

those other sites have stats you see everywhere. I’ve been on BR. They can’t tell you what a players avg is vs a slider in a 1-2 count. As far as I know, they don’t do that.

detailing every play of every game would give us stats that no one has ever had before. Yes, it would be tedious to do but hey if you were making money would you care? You’re talking about three hours and if you’re gonna watch the game anyway then it’s not that bad. And if we get enough people you wouldn’t have to do it nightly.

we’d have the kind of stats no one has ever seen before. BF can’t tell me Bryce Harpers avg in a 2 - 2 count vs the curve ball. Last I checked they didn’t have that.

if BF does do it Barman then tell me what Harper hit last year vs the curve ball in a two strike count. Tell me Nola’s ERA on his fastball from the fifth inning on.
 

Loves2kickass

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Dayum. That's more work everyday than I'd be willing to do. That's a crazy amount of work and time.
 

FANBOUTS

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Not if there were a few dozen people. For one person impossible. For a handful an insane amount of work. With 50 people very doable.
 

barman

Honey Badger Don't Give A Shit
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As noted earlier the hundreds of deep stats compiled at every game, every pitch do not come from having " a rep at every game"

They are collected and collated by using 6 to 10 people at every game. It's well over 5000 man hours weekly and over 200,000 man hours annually. The supporting payroll is in the 8figure+ range annually

So don't let me talk u out of attempts to organize "a few dozen people" to replicate that work
 

barman

Honey Badger Don't Give A Shit
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I do confess curiosity as to the value (to your "average $25-50 bettor) of knowing a hitter's outcomes vs " a slider with a 1-2 count"
 

FANBOUTS

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Knowing batting averages vs various pitches is very important and also in different counts given the rise of in game betting.

not sure how the other sites do it and what their payroll is, all I know is that if bettors were assigned games and they logged each pitch then we’d have what we need. Not sure why it costs so much for BF to update their stats.

so if BR gives out those stats then we should see a ton of threads here that tell us the tendencies of a starting pitcher and what the batting avg of the team is vs those pitches. But we NEVER see that info. Why is that? I think it’s because it’s not there.
 

FANBOUTS

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I’ll bet anybody you can’t find for a matchup today the breakdown of pitches a starter throws and then the batting averages of the opposing team’s lineup against those pitches.
 

FANBOUTS

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Any takers? Can anyone find a matchup that gives you the pitches the starter throws, the % time he throws them , and the batting avg against those pitches for the opposing team?

if that info is out there shouldn’t be too hard. Problem is, it’s not out there.
 

FANBOUTS

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I went through baseball reference. They do not have what I described. What they have is historical stats. They can't tell you what someone's batting avg is against a slider from a left hander.

Baseball Reference is essential a baseball encyclopedia. You can find out what happened yesterday, last month, last year, ten years ago. They can give you WAR on players and tell you how many triples they had in 2017.

What I am talking about is something only the MLB has. They must license the info out I imagine. They log every single play of every single game and that's why they have the real sh!t the pie charts on pitchers, the hot and cold zones on hitters, the batting averages against certain pitches, batting averages in various counts and various situations on base. That info does exits cause I see the MLB post it on the screen sometimes during the game. No one has it. Not baseball reference and not any other statistical site. MLB must make it accessible to the teams to use during the broadcasts and of course it's probably in ESPN's contract with MLB that they also get to use it or maybe ESPN compiles their own which is certainly possible. I imagine they'd have the $$$ and the man power to do it.

What we need is someone at their laptop as they watch the game and after every pitch fill in like maybe 15 drop downs where you'd select an option. The only write in maybe MPH on the pitch. The process can be done before the next pitch so in 30 - 45 seconds.

What we would get out of it is something only the big boys have: MLB, ESPN, FOX. Not only will the info will be good to bet on, but I bet the info will be worth something financially.

Years ago I was working with a pretty reputable handicapper on a website and he wanted to have live scoring on his site for the games so I looked into it for him. I inquired from ESPN and CBS how the process works and I finally got a nice person who was willing to take a phone call and explain the costs and how it works. You have to pay per page download and it's not cheap and there are minimums and it is charged on a monthly basis. So if you get zero traffic, you're still gonna pay a dime a month, if you get traffic and get a shit load of downloads then you're gonna pay tens of thousands of dollars per month.

There are ways to illegally strip the live scoring from sites that pay. Kinda like illegal cable. I know someone who does it. But I wouldn't suggest doing it. You guys are acting like what I'm describing is comparable to hard labor in North Korea. I'm saying watch an MLB game and log the results of each play into a database. I understand it's not for everyone or everyone can not see the vision. But I need like 50 like minded people(the more the merrier) spread out across the country so we cover all markets. The more people we get the less everyone has to do. It be great to do like a game or two games a week at most for each statistician. Three hours, sit and drink a six pack and watch an MLB game. Whoever jumps in and helps can own a share of the site. I'll build it. I've already started but i stopped cause people are skeptical or just think it's not possible - I don't know. I can't start on it till May. I'm contracted elsewhere till then but I think it's a million dollar idea. Imagine what it could do for in game.... In every count you'll see what the probability is for what the next pitch will be what the hitters batting avg is against that pitch. Info on the UMP, the hitter, and the pitcher. Real time info you can't get anywhere else. Where would you get your info to bet MLB in game?

#WHOISIN

Like I said, that info is out there but I do not see it in public domain at all unless you're watching a game on TV. No gambling/stats site have the info and none of the online encyclopedias have it either. If I'm wrong someone point out the website that has this. I have searched and searched and searched and I can't find it. I'll bet you can license the info from someone though and if live scoring costs that much I can't imagine what this info would be worth. 20k per month, who knows.
 

FANBOUTS

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I have a wife and three kids. This is my life now. Don’t chase p@say no more. I don’t stay at the casino 5 days/week anymore. You must be a very sophisticated fella.
 

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