Stanley Cup Final

VegasVic · May 24, 2004

Personally I see zero value in taking the Lightning at - 210 to win the cup. To say that they are more than twice as likely to win four games of seven from a team that just knocked off three 100 point caliber teams, (and division winners to boot), is ridiculous. I hear all the experts saying the lay off is too long for Calgary and the difficult road they had to travel was too taxing and I don’t buy that weak argument for a minute. This is the Stanley Cup we are talking about. Not a long rode trip in the middle of February when the grind and boredom of the regular season can put any team into a Stepford Wives sleepwalk. If you can’t get up for this challenge and kick it into gear after some R&R for a few days then you wouldn’t be in this position.

Both teams mirror each other in many ways. They both grind it out and do all the little things well. They both rally around their tender and sacrifice the body to help stop shots from ever reaching the goal. They both forecheck well and attack off it. They force opposition mistakes and make you pay the price for them. They both get back with speed from the offensive zone and back check well. In fact whatever speed advantage that Tampa had on it’s earlier rivals is matched with Calgary.

Then there are the differences. In my opinion the goaltending leans to Calgary. Not by a great margin but to me Kiprusoff is more complete and consistent than Khabibulin. The depth of the teams is on St. Pete’s bench. The special teams also has a decided edge to the Lightning. Coaching? My vote goes to Calgary’s Darryl Sutter and I’ll be proven right on this one when he wins coach of the year at the conclusion of the season. With all apologies to coach Tortorella, Sutter has done the most with the least. Home ice advantage goes to the boys from the sunshine state but with the Flames history, is home ice advantage really a advantage?

So who do I like in this final? I’d love to say Calgary and take the clear value of the lines maker’s price but when all the dust clears I still see Tampa raising the cup above their heads. Between their depth and the way both teams have played on the special teams throughout the playoffs I have to think that they will get this job done.

Tampa in seven.

olddog · May 24, 2004

Nice write-up - you might want to consider Calgary +1.5 games at -128 at the 5Dimes.

BetOnIt1340 · May 24, 2004

There is a good article in the Tampa Tribune today highlighting the fact that the lightning have done a good job learning from their mistakes this year. Sitting on a lead against Philly was cleary a mistake. They sqeaked one out in game 5 but, the inevitable happened in game six. Game 7 clearly demostrated a change in philosophy for the Lightning. Whether or not the success of this change can be attributed to the change or the price the Flyers had to pay to get there is a decent argument. Regardless, there will be no let up from Tampa. The aggression will be on the entire series. I do not think Calgary can handle it.

I am a homer through and through. But, I feel confident the Cup is coming to get a tan.

Sharp · May 24, 2004

Vic,

It looks like the pricemakers will set the total at 4.5p for the first game; usually this will be an indicator to the whole series.

Do you see these teams playing to a high or low total in this series?

Late,

Sharp.

winkyduck · May 24, 2004

this series will be decided by ONE aspect

Special Teams

Tampa Bay's power play unit is red hot now. if calgary takes as many stupid penalties as they have been so far in the playoffs - this series will be over in 3 games - calgary will simply forfeit the last one. if calgary stays out of the box and makes this a "5-on-5" series they stand a chance to win it. if calgary gets ANY kind of output from its power play unit, it will win. their PP team is so bad, if tampa gets called for a penalty, calgary should simply tell the refs they wish to decline the penalty and keep playing 5-on-5 for as bad as calgary is on the PP unit, odds are great if a goal is scored when calgary has a power play, it will be tampa getting one short handed.

as for sharp's question: i can't see calgary winning shootouts here. to me, if you like calgary to win a game, you are almost forced to parlay it with the under, because i can't see calgary winning many 3-2 games. calgary wins will be like 2-1, 2-0, 1-0 while tampa wins do have the chance to go over 4.5 (we will NEVER see a 5 in this series - NEVER).

crazyivan24 · May 24, 2004

I took Jerome Iglina to win Conn Smythe for +500 and Mikka for +900.... 80% bankroll on Ignlina and 20% on Kippa..

why take Flames +200 series when I can get Flames +500 >

winkyduck · May 24, 2004

GREAT move IvaN - you are dead on 100% correct.

if the flames win the cup - i can't see anyone else but these 2 winning it.

crazyivan24 · May 25, 2004

winky did you bet it urself? the line moved to +425 and +800 now...

chach · May 25, 2004

Are you betting with the money you stole from me in the hockey contest Ivan?

[This message was edited by chach on May 25, 2004 at 05:02 AM.]

bigboydan · May 25, 2004

Mr.Vic, it appears were on the same side again on our playoff picks because, i too am taking tampa bay in the cup finals although i hate laying that much chalk but to me i see just too much value with this play.

i think winky said it best when he said stupid penalties will do in calgary in in this series.

VegasVic · May 25, 2004

Originally posted by Sharp:
Vic,

It looks like the pricemakers will set the total at 4.5p for the first game; usually this will be an indicator to the whole series.

Do you see these teams playing to a high or low total in this series?

With all due respects to winkyduck:
I think the first game will open up cautious and both teams will try to gain control through tight passing and plenty of checks. But once the first goal is scored I think it will open up plenty for both offenses. I agree with winkydink that for Calgary to win it needs to have a concerted effort defensively but if you're suddenly down 1-0 it creates two things. The sudden urgency of not falling back 2-0 to a powerhouse like Tampa Bay and the necessity of getting the next goal. More importantly it opens up the piranha like attack that the Bolts have displayed all season, excluding the sit on the lead approach that they mistakenly showed against Philly in game six. Either way once that first goal is scored I think the shots and will come fast and furious on both sides. I like the over.