SSI's Full Card for wednesday (Day 3)

SSI · Mar 10, 2004

NCAAB Tourneys (2-2 -0.20 units)
NBA (1-1 -0.10 units)
NBA Playoffs (0-0 +0.00)
NHL (1-1 -0.10 units)
NHL Playoffs (0-0 +0.00)
MLB (0-0 +0.00)
Plays based on 1 unit ($200)
Total (-$80)

Basically have butted out over the first 2 days of my new format, winning 2 and losing 2. My goal is go 70-50 over 120 plays in 30 days for a profit of $3000.. Im playing 2 early tourney games and will be back later with remainder of todays card in this thread.

VT/Rutgers over 130
GT/BC over 128

WilliamMoney · Mar 10, 2004

i really like the way you have stated your objective and outlined it in terms of # of plays, % of plays expected to win, $ per unit, and overall profit for 120 decisions. a 70-50 record at 11/10 odds would be a tremendous achievement-i'll be pulling for you. with a profit of $3000, wouldn't that make the unit $220 and not $200 ? in other words, is a unit or % of bankroll the ammount at risk or ammount trying to win? if i am a $100 player should i risk $100 or $110 when making a wager? i have heard different theories about this. your opinion is valued. good luck with your goal of 59% win of 120 plays! if you get a chance try to reply. thanks

SSI · Mar 10, 2004

yes william, im laying $220 to win $200 based on -1.10 juice.. thanks for your comments.. i have greater success flat betting and i normally play about 120 plays per month.. always striving for the 55-60% range, best of luck to you..

SSI · Mar 10, 2004

william if you bet $110 to win $100 and go 70-50 (57%)then your profit should be $1500.. you cant get carried away on the day to day wins and losses, i prefer to rely on my capping (no system) and look at things more on a monthly basis.

tatehill2000 · Mar 10, 2004

Your a class act SSI,,,

good luck on your plays,,,
tater

SSI · Mar 10, 2004

thanks tate, todays remaining plays:

Colorado Av's -1/2 (+1.00)
NO Hornets -4.5
ND/WVA over 129

SportSavant · Mar 10, 2004

congrats on your new tracking system...& thanks for sharing, few posters have such an organized tracking system

I am all over the avalanche tonite, got em at -X +115 at Pinny at 1am last nite...Also got em on the ML at -125....

I was just looking at the alterntive lines for that game...they have the AV's @ -1.5 +250...

FWIW, I think the av's could easily win by 2 tonite & for those odds it seems very attractive...

good luck on your plays today..I am sure you will burst into the black...

WilliamMoney · Mar 10, 2004

so when you say that you are flat betting don't you mean that you risk the same on every play? your $unit is $220, so if you are flat betting you would risk the same if you were playing a $1.50 favorite or playing a $1.50 underdog. if you play a $2 favorite, you risk the same unit ammount( $220) to win $110 or risk $220 to win $440 on the dog? again if you are flat betting don't you risk the same ammount on each play? for example on a $2 favorite you will risk 1 unit to win .5 unit not 2 units to make 1 unit. is this question making any sense?

SSI · Mar 11, 2004

yes william it makes sense but i wont be playing any $2 dogs or favorites or dogs.. If i did however it would be risking $400 to make $200 on a $2 fav, or risking $200 to make $380 on a $2 dog.. Looks like another butt out today, 2-2-1 on the day.. 6-6 so far on my way to 120 plays, going to have to step it up a little..