Spreads vs. Moneyline

bryan305 · Dec 17, 2003

In another post, I listed my picks for the night. The response I got was a laugh that I was betting moneylines.

My question is when betting on the favored team, why would you bet -7 -110 instead of the moneyline at -250? I know the spread pays more, but I was under the perception that most of the people here would take the moneyline bet because it would be more likely to win...???

here's the other thread
http://therxforum.com/6/ubb.x?a=tpc&s=100090022&f=718099022&m=26710148&r=38710148#38710148

brewster · Dec 17, 2003

Bryan-
Its all about what NUMBER you are getting on the moneyline.

What do you think is a better bet over the last 8 years in the NBA:

home dog at +1 1/2 at -110 or
home dog ml at +115

SportSavant · Dec 17, 2003

Bryan...It is just that it is really tough to grind out a profit over the long haul if you are laying heavy Money...You now need to win way more than 50% of your games...when betting the pointspread -110 each side you only need to win about 53% to break even...less if you bet at -105. Just think of This...If you bet on a solid Pitcher in Baseball they are likely to go something like 15-5...after all there are some pitchers that always produce...why not bet on them each game they play...becauz the money you would have to lay wold not make up for it...You will have to win 3 games for every loss laying 300 or more...

Phaedrus · Dec 17, 2003

Well, you aren't really being laughed at by too many people (not out loud at any rate) but for the record, if you want to go bankrupt, why not cut out the book's share of the money and just send it all to me? Betting high-priced favourites as a matter of strategy will cost you big time in the long run.

Phaedrus

bryan305 · Dec 17, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by brewster:
What do you think is a better bet over the last 8 years in the NBA:

home dog at +1 1/2 at -110 or
home dog ml at +115<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I'd go with the +1 1/2 on this, but if it was reversed to -1 1/2 -110 or ml at -140, I'd take the moneyline.

bryan305 · Dec 17, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by Phaedrus:
if you want to go bankrupt, why not cut out the book's share of the money and just send it all to me? Betting high-priced favourites as a matter of strategy will cost you big time in the long run.

Phaedrus<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

If I wanted to go bankrupt, I wouldn't be on this board trying to learn different techniques to prevent that from happening

brewster · Dec 17, 2003

Bryan-
If you like a team at -1 1/2, DO NOT take them on the ml at -140!! Take the points.

SportSavant · Dec 17, 2003

Bryan, I wish I had found threads like this when I first started betting, but heck, the internet didnt even exist...or wasnt widespread anyway...

I have some basics posted at sportsavant.com no adds or bull*** just a few articles on the basics of understanding lines & so forth...go read em.

SportSavant · Dec 17, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR> home dog at +1 1/2 at -110 or
home dog ml at +115 <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

WHich is the better?

TheFunkMonkey · Dec 17, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by brewster:
Bryan-
If you like a team at -1 1/2, DO NOT take them on the ml at -140!! Take the points.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

But that is a bad example. If a team is -1.5, they are probably -125 or -130 on the moneyline, not -140.

bryan305 · Dec 17, 2003

so which would YOU take? -1 1/2 -110 or ml at -130

I'd just hate to have the -1 1/2 and have my team win by a point, but still lose the bet...

mvbski · Dec 17, 2003

bryan we tried to help you with that Ram game and you laughed us all off these people are trying to help you listen to what they say

TheFunkMonkey · Dec 17, 2003

Some people think you should NEVER bet moneylines, but I think it is a game-by-game decision. Especially if you're shopping lines, you can sometimes find a moneyline with good value.

When you expect a low-scoring game, the moneyline might have more value. Two recent examples come to mind:

Pistons @ Knicks...two teams that tend to grind it out. I think the Pistons were -2 or so. Pistons won by 1 point, I think the final was 79-78 in OT.

Michigan @ Butler...Michigan was probably -1.5 or -2. You *know* Butler is going to keep it slow and fundamental against Michigan. Michigan won by 1 point, I think it was 61-60 in OT.

SportSavant · Dec 17, 2003

I agree with mvbski...I think your intentions are honest but you should be listening more than telling at this stage in what will likely be a very long betting career...You can probably avoid many pains & pitfalls that it has taken some of us 20 years to learn if you try to absorb just a tiny bit of what everyone is saying & come up with your own strategy...

If I call the other day you were aggresively defending your position in middling the MONEY LINE vs the POINT SPREAD...if I recall you even won that night with CLEV + 6.5 & the FAV on the Money line...Congrats on that win...But trust us all when we say it is very unlikely you will find numbers attractive enough to make a profit at this in the long haul...

bryan305 · Dec 17, 2003

ok.

With Hockey: If I'm going to take the underdog, I take the +0.5 If I take the favored team, I take the ml. Do you say I should take the -0.5 for the better return and risk losing on a tie, or is the strategy correct in hockey?

mvbski · Dec 17, 2003

I couldn't tell you how many times I went bust till I started to listen to what people told me instead of trying to prove them wrong.I have been doing this 20 plus years it took me about five to figure it out,it may seem harsh but in the end everyone here wants to see everyone make money

SportSavant · Dec 17, 2003

Your question can only be answered with a spcific example..

I would take
MINUS 125

Instead of

-.5 +100
but i would not take MINUS 146 Instead of -.5 + 100...

Each 1/2 goal is worth about 40 cent on the Money line as a very general rule in Hockey
Also depends on your gut...who is playing? Is there a good chance of a tie...NJ low scoring chance type of hockey? Are they home or Away?

bryan305 · Dec 17, 2003

Thanks for all your help guys.

I love this site

TheGeneral+ · Dec 17, 2003

Tekari · Dec 17, 2003

bryan you can pretty much make it a rule to NEVER lay heavy moneylines ever. The only exception would be if there was a rogue line or some other reason why you were getting value but 99% of the time there is no value in a heavy favorite moneyline.

Infact, 90% of the time the side offers better value either way.