SportsOptions still free til end of September if you want to try it (also my week 3 picks are in here)

[JakeT.]

Some people in the other thread were confused, thinking we were a tout service since I was posting picks in there to bump it. Just so everyone knows, the handicapping stuff I post in here is just my own personal thing. SportsOptions is an odds and information service (among a million other things but these are the easiest to explain). You get a screen you can use on your computer/laptop/tablet/phone etc that has odds constantly updated from Las Vegas and offshore sportsbooks. You get detailed injury reports on every game that are updated by the minute as well as popup notices when key players are announced to miss action (we'll have this stuff to you WAYYYYYY before ESPN and other popular resources are even getting close to reporting it).

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Best of luck to everyone in week 3!

 

[JakeT.]

Not capping BG/Indiana. BG has 3 defensive starters questionable.
Not capping Ohio/Marshall. Ohio has their 2 best defensive players questionable.
Staying away from NC ST/USF. USF QB originally doubtful but injury came back better than expected. Assuming he ends up playing.
Not touching CMU games until the team updates the status of Titus Davis.
Avoiding Pitt/FIU with 2 important defenders questionable for FIU.


My Odds:

Missouri -12, 58
Michigan -35, 55
Ohio State -26, 42
Old Dominion -19, 71
Virginia Tech -8, 52
Boise State -13, 47


Leans:


Kent State +32


See below.

East Carolina +11


East Carolina matches up pretty well with V Tech and only lost by 5 against them last year. Virginia Tech's defense is extremely young and their offense isn't capable of putting up huge points. Pirates are great at taking away the run so Hokies will have to rely on an unreliable passing attack to move the ball. Likely to bog down in the red zone. East Carolina's offense has an experienced senior QB in a pass happy attack and Virginia Tech's defensive line isn't nearly as good as last year. Will likely end up playing this but wanted to hear some opinions first.


Plays:


Kent State/Ohio State u50.5


The Golden Flashes are unable to do anything on offense. Their line is weak thanks to the loss of Bitsko and Ohio State might have the best D-line in football with Spence back from suspension. Kent can't run at all and against this line they aren't going to have time to pass. It's going to be ugly. That being said, Ohio State just lost Lindsey from an already inexperienced offensive line. They have an inexperienced QB and don't run that well. Kent State's defense has a habit of giving up rushing yards but holding teams out of the endzone. Excellent defensive scheme. I'm not sure Kent gets to double digits points but it's tough to see Ohio State getting past 34 or so with how they've looked thus far.

 

[dodo97]

Titus Davis did practice on Tuesday.

 

[JakeT.]

Titus Davis did practice on Tuesday.

Much appreciated. I have the day off work so I haven't been following like normal with all the errands. The only thing that scares me is that CMU and Enos are so guarded with info that it's tough to say what type of practice he put in. Sounds like he's at least somewhere between questionable and probable.

 

[JakeT.]

My Odds:

Georgia Tech -7, 56
Maryland pick, 60
Vanderbilt -15, 51
Louisville -5, 49
Oregon -43, 69
Air Force -18, 60


Leans:


West Virginia +3.5


I trust the Mountaineers to score points under Holgersen, although they are going up against an improved defense. Still, I think with experience at QB these guys should come close to around 30 here. They are dangerous at running and throwing which means they'll almost always put up 20+ points even on a bad day. Maryland's offense is improved as well. Not sure what to think of WVU's defense but they have 7 guys back and the Terrapins aren't a team that can put up big points. Think this game stays tight with both getting 27-31 points. WVU is a tick better IMO but with Maryland at home I'll call it a tossup.


UMASS/Vanderbilt o45.5


Not a big lean by any means but I think it has value. UMASS defense is bad. Vanderbilt's young QBs can't do anything but Commodores will be able to run for the first time all season which should have them scoring 30 or so. Maybe more. Boston College can't pass much either and they got 30 without much trouble against UMASS. Vanderbilt's defense is better than it's shown thus far but they are still learning new schemes and there is plenty of confusion. I don't much trust the Minutemen on offense since they are learning new schemes as well but they stepped up against Colorado last week and I think they can get somewhere near 20 since Vanderbilt is still learning. Small lean only.


Air Force -11.5


Going to be keeping my eye out for -11 or better. I don't think Georgia State has any shot of keeping Air Force to less than 35 points here. Defense is just awful. Air Force has quite a few guys returning on defense and are as strong as they have been on that side of the ball in years. Georgia State offense is improving in year 2 of the schemes and they added in a nice JUCO QB in Arbuckle who the coaches are letting air the ball out since the team can't run well. He'll get some points but I think the Panthers' offense won't have an easy go against a veteran D. 38-20 sounds about right to me.


Plays:


Georgia Southern +20



This line is nuts. Already been bet down from an opener of +22.5. These teams are going to do very little passing and the runs will have the clock running constantly which supports the underdog. I get that Paul Johnson knows what Georgia Southern is going to throw at them since he invented the offense they've ran the last few years but Georgia Tech gave up 19 a week ago to a similar Wofford offense that ran all over them. Yellow Jackets' defense is not strong. Georgia Southern has new coaching staff but they kept many of the schemes that worked last year and are still very similar offensively. Eagles' defense isn't anything special but Georgia Tech rarely scores big points. They've ran all over their first 2 opponents and have not topped 38 yet. With both teams set to put up 50 runs the big underdog here is very much alive. I don't get this line at all.

 

[JakeT.]

Not capping USF/NC St. QB is probable but not 100%, top WR is "?", important OL is "?".
Arkansas State is too dinged on offense to bet on right now. Skipping them again.


My Odds:

Michigan -29, 51
Iowa -10, 46
Duke -12, 56
Georgia -9, 63
Arkansas -3, 65


*Kinda sorta lean on Miami (Ohio) +33.5 but not feeling it. Tiny lean anyway and quite possibly an overreaction to Michigan's play against UND.


*Small lean on Iowa/State St under 50. If Scherff sits out it becomes stronger.


Leans:


Arkansas +110


Razorbacks on the road and both teams with potent offenses and iffy defenses. I will take Bret Bielema over Kliff Kingsbury in the coaching battle any day. Both offenses are loaded but I think Arkansas and their rushing attack are going to have more success than Texas Tech and their passing attack when it comes to red zone scoring opportunities. I also give the edge on defense to Arkansas. It won't be easy on the road but they don't deserve to be underdogs here with a big coaching edge and small edges everywhere else. The only reason why this is a lean instead of a play is because Texas Tech is getting 2 important D-line guys back who should help a bit. I still prefer Arkansas but it's tough to truly gauge the Red Raider defense when they've been playing some backups at key spots.



Plays:


Lines are in line with mine quite a bit thus far. Hoping for some quality late game plays. Will finish everything tomorrow afternoon/evening.

 

[JakeT.]

Only found 2 plays thus far after all that hard work but at least I got good lines.

My under 50.5 is now at 48.5 and my +20 is now at +17.

 

[JakeT.]

Not touching Lafayette games until I know if their star WR plays.

My Odds:

Mississippi State -17, 53
Washington pk, 53
TCU -7, 53


Leans:


Illinois/Washington u64


See below.


Minnesota +17

What is up with the line movement here? Gophers opened up at +8 and have been steamed like crazy. Someone notable likes TCU and that's enough for me to leave this in the lean category. I love TCU's offense this year but Minnesota is vastly improved defensively as well. The Gophers' offense is capped since they don't pass well but are still experienced enough to put up around 20 here. With TCU not being a high-scoring bunch that should be enough for this huge spread, but this feels like a nice game to lay off with that crazy line move.


Plays:


Illinois +13




My odds on the side and the total were so far off. Kinda scary. Illinois offense can't run at all which limits their scoring, but Lunt is an excellent QB and capable of throwing for big yards. Washington's offense is only 2 games into the new schemes and even if they run for 200+ yards they still can't throw which limits their scoring ability. The Illini is much improved defensively, while Washington is learning new schemes on that side of the ball as well. I'm not sure either team gets to 30 and have both scoring around 24-27. +13 and u64 are way off. I'm more worried that a shootout erupts than I am Illinois gets blown out and feel the side is the stronger of the 2 plays.

 

[JakeT.]

1-1 thus far, I think my leans are 4-1 which is kinda sad since I never ended up taking any of them. That Georgia Southern line was an absolute joke. Capping the later stuff now so hopefully will come up with a few more plays.

 

[JakeT.]

My Odds:

Idaho pk, 75
Stanford -21, 53
ODU -17, 67
Alabama -38, 50
WKU -3, 51
Utah State -17, 37


*Small lean on EMU/ODU under just because EMU's offense isn't a sure thing to score but nothing strong enough to really consider it.


*Technically I should have leans on Southern Miss +47 and Southern Miss/Alabama u57 but I'm not going to touch either bet. Vegas apparently thinks Alabama will score a million points here. I mean, they definitely could if they felt like, just in the past they usually stop around 40 which is the basis for both my bets. I don't understand the line and these games with huge favorites are often difficult to cap. Not gonna touch it.

Leans:


Army +29.5


Army is now led by Georgia Southern's coach for the past 4 years and I've made it apparent how much I like that system. Stanford has a tough defense but they never plays teams like Army and gave up 20 to the Black Knights last year when our big underdog here wasn't nearly as good. The Cardinal have a veteran QB but Army's constant rushing runs the clock. Stanford runs a ton too which helps support the big underdog. Army's defense is about as experienced as it ever gets... the academies rarely return a lot of starters but the Black Knights are looking solid. On top of everything else, Stanford doesn't usually put up huge points against teams because they are happy to play it safe and just pound the ball. Lots of running, a quality Army offense and defense, and overall 29 just seems too high.


Wake Forest/Utah State u44


Was hoping this line would be a little bit higher. Wake Forest's offense is garbage. They are learning new schemes and no one knows what they hell they are doing. Team might get shut out. Utah State is limited in experience on defense but I trust the coordinators to do well enough to hold Wake to 10 or fewer. Utah State's offense is much different than last year. The O line is brand new and star quarterback Chuckie Keaton has no chance to pass. Just no time. They've made the offense into a bit of a running squad since Keaton has wheels and it seems to be working. Their scoring is going to be extremely limited without the threat of the pass but Wake doesn't have much of a defense so the Aggies could hand 20-28. Either way, even set low at 44 you have to go under here.


Plays:


Western Michigan/Idaho o57.5



I told myself I'd stop taking so many overs but my line is so much different than the actual line I have to jump. This might be a bad play, only time will tell. Idaho is in the 2nd year of a Petrino offense and their O line looks very strong. They can run and pass and WMU has a terrible defense that won't be able to stop anything. Idaho's defense actually has some potential but they are still below average as a unit. WMU is in the 2nd year of their offense and should be vastly improved. Neither squad can stop the run at all which will open up both capable passing attacks in potentially high-scoring offenses. This just shouts "shootout" at me. Can't lay off even though I'm trying to not play so many overs.


WKU/MTSU u64


My line was 13 points off here and I feel I gave as much respect to both offenses as I could. Both are capable of scoring big points. That being said, MTSU needs the run to move the ball because Grammer is young at QB and mistake prone still. MTSU doesn't have a great O line. WKU will stop their run and force Grammer to beat them which I don't see working out well for the Blue Raiders. WKU has a very nice passing attack but MTSU is a team that lets other squads beat them on the ground by dropping extra guys back into coverage. Hilltoppers aren't the world's best rushing team and this defensive scheme will take them out of their element. Basically these defenses just match up as well as possible against the talented opposing offenses and I think we could see a game of field position.