Sportsbooks take heed... my formula

[Jetplane]

LOL, decided to post it without too much incriminating info. I saw Cruncher's layout and was jealous so I'll show you guys mine. This is what I'm destroying the books with:

Haha.

 

[ca$hmoney]

Jetplane - can you help us understand the sheet.

 

[Jetplane]

I know I'm a jackass for posting and not telling you what #'s are what. But I only posted to show that Cruncher has a very appealing layout as opposed to my ugly shit. He says his plays aren't doing well but my guess is because it's still early. I never liked the early season either but my #'s have held up so far.

I WILL TELL YOU that toward the far right... is my OVER/UNDER system... and if it says OVER or UNDER that means that game has good value and you should look into it. I'm really sorry for not posting formulas and #'s. This is all info I keep to myself in hopes that lines don't get adjusted the other way. The system extends to the right 5 more columns.

Green highlights are also games of interest... but the side is unknown.

 

[ca$hmoney]

Thanks. I have already taken the Bronco/Saints over.

 

[thecruncher]

I know I'm a jackass for posting and not telling you what #'s are what. But I only posted to show that Cruncher has a very appealing layout as opposed to my ugly shit. He says his plays aren't doing well but my guess is because it's still early. I never liked the early season either but my #'s have held up so far.

I WILL TELL YOU that toward the far right... is my OVER/UNDER system... and if it says OVER or UNDER that means that game has good value and you should look into it. I'm really sorry for not posting formulas and #'s. This is all info I keep to myself in hopes that lines don't get adjusted the other way. The system extends to the right 5 more columns.

Green highlights are also games of interest... but the side is unknown.

Who said what to who??? lol. Week 1 was a bit rough on sides, but I killed them last week and am +5.3 Units this year. But yeah, all this early week stuff is semi-experimental for me.

BTW, those tables in my thread are what's known as the "tip of the iceberg," lol. Anyone using a spreadsheet is going to end up with something similar to what you have when it's being used primarily for their own purposes, and not for others to view. I got shit deeper than 20 shovels tied together could get to the bottom of in the guts of my program. I've been working on making it all presentable, however, so that I can post it up to a website so people can analyze the stats for their own handicapping. I'm hoping to have that up before midway through the season. Then you will see some sick tables, my friend!

 

[Jetplane]

Yeah, that onel looks to be a good one. One of the things I need to go over is how well is the Saints Offense going to produce. Both teams have terrible defense and the ball theoretically should be able to tip-toe past these defenses without either one even knowing. I *AM* sold on the decent Broncos Offense but I haven't seen film or stats that represent the Saints offense. I give the Saints a thumbs up for scoring on Washington but not sure if that's enough to carry this game over. But I'm definitely not looking toward an under yet.

I'm almost on the TB spread *BUT* the Bears defense is a tad bit better than the Bucs and they have also played more quality teams so it's scary to venture out.

 

[Jetplane]

<TABLE class=tborder style="BORDER-TOP-WIDTH: 0px" cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=thead colSpan=2>09-17-2008 05:25 PM</TD></TR><TR title="Post 5763416" vAlign=top><TD class=alt1 align=middle width=125>thecruncher</TD><TD class=alt2>Quote:
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=alt2 style="BORDER-RIGHT: 1px inset; BORDER-TOP: 1px inset; BORDER-LEFT: 1px inset; BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px inset">Originally Posted by Jetplane
I know I'm a jackass for posting and not telling you what #'s are what. But I only posted to show that Cruncher has a very appealing layout as opposed to my ugly shit. He says his plays aren't doing well but my guess is because it's still early. I never liked the early season either but my #'s have held up so far.

I WILL TELL YOU that toward the far right... is my OVER/UNDER system... and if it says OVER or UNDER that means that game has good value and you should look into it. I'm really sorry for not posting formulas and #'s. This is all info I keep to myself in hopes that lines don't get adjusted the other way. The system extends to the right 5 more columns.

Green highlights are also games of interest... but the side is unknown.
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Who said what to who??? lol. Week 1 was a bit rough on sides, but I killed them last week and am +5.3 Units this year. But yeah, all this early week stuff is semi-experimental for me.

BTW, those tables in my thread are what's known as the "tip of the iceberg," lol. Anyone using a spreadsheet is going to end up with something similar to what you have when it's being used primarily for their own purposes, and not for others to view. I got shit deeper than 20 shovels tied together could get to the bottom of in the guts of my program. I've been working on making it all presentable, however, so that I can post it up to a website so people can analyze the stats for their own handicapping. I'm hoping to have that up before midway through the season. Then you will see some sick tables, my friend!

I figured as much with your professionalism. I'm looking at getting a .com up also but don't know who to open one with. You might have remembered when i had AREYOUCOVERT.COM up but that was with GODADDY and I wasn't too in to it. Who are you using?
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[thecruncher]

GoDaddy. 5 for 5 solid winning years online, I'm not sure how many others have a record that approaches mine especially in terms of total units won when compared to average bet size -- you know I likes me some action! But you're right, I've always approached it professionally. My wager size itself has never entered into the professional realm, as even though I've made good money in the NFL and poker over the last 5 years I've always spent my bankroll on bills and toys. The problem with being a winning poker player is that you figure there's always more where that came from! Now I have a son and internet poker hasn't been the same since Party Poker went down so I haven't had the time or opportunity to rebuild the bankroll. Anyway, I want the site to be a good tool for any semi-serious handicapper, with the added bonus of my spreadsheet plays and write ups, etc. I don't even plan on charging this year, but if I hit a major hot streak, you never know, lol. How many times have we seen a random new poster hit a lucky streak and turn tout after a month, lol? I've got my fair share of followers, but I've always felt I fly a little bit under the radar because I'm not always up on a soapbox shouting out my winning record and touting myself. If you added up the units won versus average bet size in my years of posting I'm pretty sure I've crushed everyone online in the NFL, bar none. Uh oh, I'm starting to sound a little bit toutish here...

 

[Jetplane]

Don't EVEN try to go up against me Crunch! Tout-war, right here... right now! > Are you in Mac's contest? We cancompete in there... I dont much feel like keeping track of plays between us lol. I always look forward to your info though. I may not always play but I look. I actually just talked to a good friend of mine and he says you match his plays very closely too. > And I trust that dude.

And yes, I know you like action... worse than I do sometimes... that's why I can't always trust you lol I don't know which to play!

 

[thecruncher]

The nature of my betting style is to bet anything that has decent +EV. With my record over the years it's fairly safe to say that what I see as +EV is +EV (on average). By the same token, I'm not a lock of the week player at all. I honestly haven't tracked if there's a correlation between my line value and winning percentage. It's something I should really do to know if my 12% value plays are better than my 8% value plays. I think your experience with me has been the same as many -- that I have so many plays that people just kind of scratch their heads and feel good if some of my plays match what they're liking. I know you and pretty much all the serious 'cappers look at my stuff. I'm usually top 5 for weekly threads for hit counts here and I was number one across the street last week (yes, I admit to being slightly needy enough to see if I was ahead of others there last week, lol). I don't lay my stuff out there for your average forum cherry picker to quickly digest. I'm never going to start a thread for one play just because I've been riding a mini-hot streak. My style is ridiculously untoutish, lol, but like I said, the serious people are checking in. In typical fashion, my biggest chest-thumping moment in a while took place here in somebody else's random thread, lol.

But yeah, lots of plays. You gotta' be a hustla' to win in the NFL. You have to attack lines when they're released. You have to be on the right side of key numbers. You have to look for key numbers with team totals and 1st or 2nd half bets (I love 2nd half plays). You have to play teasers like a pro (though I admit to sometimes get a little frisky with my monster teasers) -- Ace-Ace posts that article from Nick every week about that. I think it's very, very tough to show up late in the week with your plays and expect to be a winner in the NFL. It takes a lot of dedication to beat the toughest of all sports.

 

[Jetplane]

I'm not a champ for nuthin > I like playing later in the week so I can potentially add strength to my lines and also negate the fact that Brady, Moss, and Welker could be pulled over for a DUI and carrying guns without a license and beating up strippers the night before the game > lol. I don't like falling into that... weather also.

I've never cracked open playing halves... only in NCAAB have i. Football I haven't quite understood it yet but I don't have offshore accounts so it's not needed to me anymore.

Let me know if you need a logo! I'll try to help.

 

[thecruncher]

For sure, sometimes it's not until later in the week that enough injury or weather information is available to make a solid play. But I can't tell you how many times I jumped on an easy Under winner on Sunday night last year when the lines came out by simply looking at an extended forecast. You remember some of the big storms that came in late last fall. I had the Unders on all of them, lol.

 

[DaShark]

heres what I use

<TABLE class=datasmall><TBODY><TR><TH align=left>Teams</TH><TH>Pass
Comp</TH><TH>Pass
Att</TH><TH>Pass
Yds</TH><TH>Pass
TDs</TH><TH>Pass
Int</TH><TH>Rush
Att</TH><TH>Rush
Yds</TH><TH>Rush
TDs</TH><TH>Score</TH></TR><TR bgColor=lightgreen><TD class=la>Kansas City Chiefs</TD><TD>20</TD><TD>33</TD><TD>183</TD><TD>1.1</TD><TD>1.1</TD><TD>26</TD><TD>86</TD><TD>0.7</TD><TD>17.3</TD></TR><TR bgColor=lightgreen><TD class=la>at Atlanta Falcons</TD><TD>14</TD><TD>25</TD><TD>176</TD><TD>0.8</TD><TD>0.6</TD><TD>33</TD><TD>175</TD><TD>1.2</TD><TD>20.7</TD></TR><TR><TD class=la>Oakland Raiders</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>31</TD><TD>146</TD><TD>0.8</TD><TD>1.0</TD><TD>30</TD><TD>131</TD><TD>0.8</TD><TD>14.6</TD></TR><TR><TD class=la>at Buffalo Bills</TD><TD>18</TD><TD>29</TD><TD>231</TD><TD>1.3</TD><TD>0.7</TD><TD>28</TD><TD>104</TD><TD>1.1</TD><TD>24.9</TD></TR><TR bgColor=lightgreen><TD class=la>Tampa Bay Buccaneers</TD><TD>21</TD><TD>35</TD><TD>194</TD><TD>0.9</TD><TD>0.7</TD><TD>25</TD><TD>106</TD><TD>0.7</TD><TD>16.5</TD></TR><TR bgColor=lightgreen><TD class=la>at Chicago Bears</TD><TD>18</TD><TD>30</TD><TD>212</TD><TD>1.0</TD><TD>0.8</TD><TD>30</TD><TD>139</TD><TD>0.8</TD><TD>18.3</TD></TR><TR><TD class=la>Houston Texans</TD><TD>22</TD><TD>33</TD><TD>191</TD><TD>1.2</TD><TD>1.3</TD><TD>22</TD><TD>62</TD><TD>0.5</TD><TD>16.0</TD></TR><TR><TD class=la>at Tennessee Titans</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>25</TD><TD>169</TD><TD>1.2</TD><TD>0.9</TD><TD>33</TD><TD>155</TD><TD>1.5</TD><TD>27.0</TD></TR><TR bgColor=lightgreen><TD class=la>Cincinnati Bengals</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>30</TD><TD>162</TD><TD>1.0</TD><TD>1.0</TD><TD>24</TD><TD>69</TD><TD>0.4</TD><TD>13.2</TD></TR><TR bgColor=lightgreen><TD class=la>at New York Giants</TD><TD>19</TD><TD>30</TD><TD>207</TD><TD>1.2</TD><TD>0.5</TD><TD>34</TD><TD>179</TD><TD>1.3</TD><TD>26.3</TD></TR><TR><TD class=la>Carolina Panthers</TD><TD>21</TD><TD>33</TD><TD>212</TD><TD>1.0</TD><TD>0.8</TD><TD>26</TD><TD>102</TD><TD>0.8</TD><TD>17.2</TD></TR><TR><TD class=la>at Minnesota Vikings</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>31</TD><TD>180</TD><TD>1.0</TD><TD>0.5</TD><TD>31</TD><TD>157</TD><TD>1.0</TD><TD>20.0</TD></TR><TR bgColor=lightgreen><TD class=la>Miami Dolphins</TD><TD>20</TD><TD>34</TD><TD>194</TD><TD>1.0</TD><TD>1.0</TD><TD>23</TD><TD>75</TD><TD>0.4</TD><TD>12.5</TD></TR><TR bgColor=lightgreen><TD class=la>at New England Patriots</TD><TD>18</TD><TD>27</TD><TD>240</TD><TD>1.5</TD><TD>0.6</TD><TD>31</TD><TD>127</TD><TD>1.0</TD><TD>26.0</TD></TR><TR><TD class=la>Arizona Cardinals</TD><TD>21</TD><TD>33</TD><TD>243</TD><TD>1.1</TD><TD>0.8</TD><TD>29</TD><TD>86</TD><TD>0.8</TD><TD>19.4</TD></TR><TR><TD class=la>at Washington Redskins</TD><TD>19</TD><TD>30</TD><TD>220</TD><TD>1.0</TD><TD>0.5</TD><TD>26</TD><TD>110</TD><TD>0.9</TD><TD>20.2</TD></TR><TR bgColor=lightgreen><TD class=la>St. Louis Rams</TD><TD>19</TD><TD>32</TD><TD>209</TD><TD>0.9</TD><TD>0.6</TD><TD>23</TD><TD>72</TD><TD>0.6</TD><TD>15.8</TD></TR><TR bgColor=lightgreen><TD class=la>at Seattle Seahawks</TD><TD>21</TD><TD>36</TD><TD>265</TD><TD>1.7</TD><TD>0.9</TD><TD>29</TD><TD>129</TD><TD>1.1</TD><TD>28.1</TD></TR><TR><TD class=la>Detroit Lions</TD><TD>21</TD><TD>34</TD><TD>234</TD><TD>1.3</TD><TD>1.1</TD><TD>27</TD><TD>92</TD><TD>0.8</TD><TD>20.2</TD></TR><TR><TD class=la>at San Francisco 49ers</TD><TD>18</TD><TD>28</TD><TD>247</TD><TD>1.4</TD><TD>0.8</TD><TD>28</TD><TD>145</TD><TD>1.2</TD><TD>26.2</TD></TR><TR bgColor=lightgreen><TD class=la>New Orleans Saints</TD><TD>20</TD><TD>31</TD><TD>271</TD><TD>1.8</TD><TD>0.9</TD><TD>27</TD><TD>103</TD><TD>0.5</TD><TD>23.8</TD></TR><TR bgColor=lightgreen><TD class=la>at Denver Broncos</TD><TD>22</TD><TD>35</TD><TD>300</TD><TD>1.7</TD><TD>0.6</TD><TD>27</TD><TD>140</TD><TD>1.2</TD><TD>30.6</TD></TR><TR><TD class=la>Jacksonville Jaguars</TD><TD>18</TD><TD>29</TD><TD>165</TD><TD>0.7</TD><TD>0.9</TD><TD>30</TD><TD>126</TD><TD>0.9</TD><TD>15.7</TD></TR><TR><TD class=la>at Indianapolis Colts</TD><TD>22</TD><TD>35</TD><TD>260</TD><TD>1.4</TD><TD>1.0</TD><TD>24</TD><TD>81</TD><TD>0.8</TD><TD>22.3</TD></TR><TR bgColor=lightgreen><TD class=la>Cleveland Browns</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>28</TD><TD>172</TD><TD>1.3</TD><TD>1.0</TD><TD>24</TD><TD>65</TD><TD>0.4</TD><TD>16.3</TD></TR><TR bgColor=lightgreen><TD class=la>at Baltimore Ravens</TD><TD>18</TD><TD>31</TD><TD>228</TD><TD>0.9</TD><TD>0.6</TD><TD>35</TD><TD>173</TD><TD>1.3</TD><TD>22.4</TD></TR><TR><TD class=la>Pittsburgh Steelers</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>26</TD><TD>175</TD><TD>1.3</TD><TD>0.6</TD><TD>28</TD><TD>101</TD><TD>0.8</TD><TD>21.1</TD></TR><TR><TD class=la>at Philadelphia Eagles</TD><TD>23</TD><TD>35</TD><TD>260</TD><TD>1.5</TD><TD>0.9</TD><TD>25</TD><TD>96</TD><TD>1.0</TD><TD>24.9</TD></TR><TR bgColor=lightgreen><TD class=la>Dallas Cowboys</TD><TD>21</TD><TD>34</TD><TD>260</TD><TD>1.6</TD><TD>1.3</TD><TD>27</TD><TD>117</TD><TD>1.1</TD><TD>26.9</TD></TR><TR bgColor=lightgreen><TD class=la>at Green Bay Packers</TD><TD>19</TD><TD>31</TD><TD>245</TD><TD>1.4</TD><TD>0.4</TD><TD>24</TD><TD>113</TD><TD>0.8</TD><TD>23.9</TD></TR><TR><TD class=la>New York Jets</TD><TD>22</TD><TD>35</TD><TD>228</TD><TD>1.4</TD><TD>1.0</TD><TD>27</TD><TD>112</TD><TD>0.5</TD><TD>19.0</TD></TR><TR><TD class=la>at San Diego Chargers</TD><TD>19</TD><TD>31</TD><TD>248</TD><TD>1.7</TD><TD>0.6</TD><TD>27</TD><TD>118</TD><TD>0.8</TD><TD>25.2</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[DaShark]

Can't take credit for that , I steal it from a fantasy site I subscribe to but it is unbelievably accurate .

 

[Saab]

da shark, what fantasy site? (if you dont mind)

 

[Jetplane]

they have the #'s all set up for u like that? lemme know! > where?

 

[DaShark]

Yeah, it's all set up like that . It factors in ytd data , recent games played , injury info , home and away and more . It's from footballguys.com .