We've all seen them, those extremely large college football pointspreads. Perhaps USC is favored by 36 over some joke of a team. Or Florida is favored by 29 over
Florida A&M. These games jump off the page right away just for the sheer size of the spread.
And yeah they nearly make you chuckle because they're such a joke, but what about actually betting on these games where spreads can now and again make 40 points or more?
Should you try to get down on a game with a spread this great?
The short reply is no, but there are a number of reasons why. First of all, when you're talking about spreads of this size that means you're also talking about some Very bad teams. And we've all been there, but no one likes to have to root in a poor team. Another sack allowed, another turnover, another missed tackle, it's
like the movie 'Groundhog Day,' blunder after mistake.
An added trouble is there's no actual guide to follow. How can you determine if the team getting pounded will keep on working, playing solid to the last gun goes off, and trying to get that score that makes the number?
Now with the BCS involved, a few schools will show no pity because they're trying to acquire those all- mighty points in the polls. You would assume that would increase even more later on in the season, right? Well even that idea isn't a lock based on previous performances.
And that's my closing and almost certainly most vital point. The statistical data doesn't validate taking either side in these lopsided games. Looking at the data we could only obtain one example where teams covered with a winning percentage over 53%.
With a break-even point of 52.7%, that's hardly adequate to motivate confidence. My opinion: stay away from the Giant NCAA Pointspread!
All the best,
Rich Allen - aka Sports Betting Professor
Florida A&M. These games jump off the page right away just for the sheer size of the spread.
And yeah they nearly make you chuckle because they're such a joke, but what about actually betting on these games where spreads can now and again make 40 points or more?
Should you try to get down on a game with a spread this great?
The short reply is no, but there are a number of reasons why. First of all, when you're talking about spreads of this size that means you're also talking about some Very bad teams. And we've all been there, but no one likes to have to root in a poor team. Another sack allowed, another turnover, another missed tackle, it's
like the movie 'Groundhog Day,' blunder after mistake.
An added trouble is there's no actual guide to follow. How can you determine if the team getting pounded will keep on working, playing solid to the last gun goes off, and trying to get that score that makes the number?
Now with the BCS involved, a few schools will show no pity because they're trying to acquire those all- mighty points in the polls. You would assume that would increase even more later on in the season, right? Well even that idea isn't a lock based on previous performances.
And that's my closing and almost certainly most vital point. The statistical data doesn't validate taking either side in these lopsided games. Looking at the data we could only obtain one example where teams covered with a winning percentage over 53%.
With a break-even point of 52.7%, that's hardly adequate to motivate confidence. My opinion: stay away from the Giant NCAA Pointspread!
All the best,
Rich Allen - aka Sports Betting Professor
