Saw this in another site...quite a nice write-up
SEVILLA +0.75 OVER barcelona at 2.00
Not only that second
round of this season's Primera is played in unusual time (tuesday/wednesday, Primera is one of those typical 'only weekend' leagues); but also this particular game is played in most unusual time I've seen for years: 00.05 cet (night between tuesday and wednesday)! It's hard to bellieve it, really...
Both teams started off with 1:0 victories; Sevilla won against Atletico Madrid at home, while Barca beat Bilbao away. Of course, Barcelona are favourites. They are one of the most popular teams in Spain, majority love to back them, and the odds on them are usually much lower than they should be. All this applies to this game as well, and I feel that Barca are made way too big favourites. At the time I'm writing this opreview, the average fixed odds for Barcelona are @1.50; and the asian handicap is set to 0:1 (at vast majority of the bookmakers). My personal estimations say that Barca has 54% to win this game - so yes, they are definitely the favourites here and their victory is the most probable outcome; but on the other hand, the odds on Sevilla are way too high and we have some nice value in both away win @7.50 and Sevilla +1 AsianHC @1.975. Imho, the handicap should be set to 0:1/2 in this game, with Barca being odds-on favourites - but to give +1 to Sevilla is definitely too high.
Why? Simply, there is no such huge difference between the two teams that will face each other at Nou Kamp on tuesday night (or wednesday morning, if you prefer). Even in normal circumstances, I wouldn't offer more than +3/4 to visitors here. Barca have better and deeper squad, they are more ambitious and they have home-ground advantage, and it is more than logical to see them as favourites. But @1.50?! Come on. We all know how much problems Barca had last season. They struggled, struggled a lot. Coach Antic (who did the good job at the club) left at the end, former Dutch international Rijkaard came and Barca also signed several good players including Ronaldinho, Quaresma, Van Bronckhorst, Marquez, keeper Rustu, etc. On the other hand, Sevilla were one of the most pleasant surprises last season. Alongside Celta, Tthey played probably the most defensive football in Primera - but that really produced good results; and it looked like as if Sevilla have overachieved. This season, they seem to be even stronger, and the likes of Dario Silva (he will be a great asset for this club, especially if he could control his temperament) who proved his worth in Primera playing superbly for Malaga, Sao Paulo's Baptista, Antonio Lopez (Valladolid), Tenerife's Marti or Carlos from Mallorca should all add that much needed killer-instinct to the side which already has one of the toughest and best organized defences in the league!
HTH's? I wouldn't rate them as important here, but for those who are interested here are the results from last 5 between these two at Nou Kamp (note that famous victory Sevilla got last season!):
15.12.2002. Barcelona 0 : 3 Sevilla
13.01.2002. Barcelona 3 : 1 Sevilla
22.04.2000. Barcelona 1 : 0 Sevilla
23.03.1997. Barcelona 4 : 0 Sevilla
05.05.1996. Barcelona 1 : 1 Sevilla
Back to this game - Barca won't be able to count on several of their first team players; including Kluivert, Saviola, Cocu, Overmars, Van Bronckhorst, Reiziger and Rustu (important EURO2004 qualifying matches are the main reason Barca will be without 5 of their Dutch players). The likes of Ronaldinho, Luis Enrique, Quaresma, Xavi, etc. will play, and Barca's team still looks veru strong indeed. But on the other hand, +1 on Sevilla is too big, don't you agree. Barca without their offensive trio Kluivert, Saviola, Overmars - up against one of the best defences in the league...
Probable lineups (source marca):
Barcelona: Valdés; Puyol, Márquez, Andersson, Oscar López, Xavi, Gerard, Quaresma, Ronaldinho, Inesta, Luis Enrique.
Sevilla: Notario; Daniel, Javi Navarro, Pablo Alfaro, David, Gallardo, Baptista, Casquero, Martí (Marcos Vales); Reyes, Darío Silva.
The bookmakers have overestimated Barca and their 'name' here. Sevilla are no mugs, they are very organized side, hard to break down, and in Dario Silva and Reyes they have probably the paciest attckaing duo in the league - really superb for counter-attacking style. Take the visitors, they have much better chances to get something from this game than these odds suggest! Good luck!
1 UNIT TO WIN 1
15-12
+2.45 units
1 more to come...
SEVILLA +0.75 OVER barcelona at 2.00
Not only that second
round of this season's Primera is played in unusual time (tuesday/wednesday, Primera is one of those typical 'only weekend' leagues); but also this particular game is played in most unusual time I've seen for years: 00.05 cet (night between tuesday and wednesday)! It's hard to bellieve it, really...
Both teams started off with 1:0 victories; Sevilla won against Atletico Madrid at home, while Barca beat Bilbao away. Of course, Barcelona are favourites. They are one of the most popular teams in Spain, majority love to back them, and the odds on them are usually much lower than they should be. All this applies to this game as well, and I feel that Barca are made way too big favourites. At the time I'm writing this opreview, the average fixed odds for Barcelona are @1.50; and the asian handicap is set to 0:1 (at vast majority of the bookmakers). My personal estimations say that Barca has 54% to win this game - so yes, they are definitely the favourites here and their victory is the most probable outcome; but on the other hand, the odds on Sevilla are way too high and we have some nice value in both away win @7.50 and Sevilla +1 AsianHC @1.975. Imho, the handicap should be set to 0:1/2 in this game, with Barca being odds-on favourites - but to give +1 to Sevilla is definitely too high.
Why? Simply, there is no such huge difference between the two teams that will face each other at Nou Kamp on tuesday night (or wednesday morning, if you prefer). Even in normal circumstances, I wouldn't offer more than +3/4 to visitors here. Barca have better and deeper squad, they are more ambitious and they have home-ground advantage, and it is more than logical to see them as favourites. But @1.50?! Come on. We all know how much problems Barca had last season. They struggled, struggled a lot. Coach Antic (who did the good job at the club) left at the end, former Dutch international Rijkaard came and Barca also signed several good players including Ronaldinho, Quaresma, Van Bronckhorst, Marquez, keeper Rustu, etc. On the other hand, Sevilla were one of the most pleasant surprises last season. Alongside Celta, Tthey played probably the most defensive football in Primera - but that really produced good results; and it looked like as if Sevilla have overachieved. This season, they seem to be even stronger, and the likes of Dario Silva (he will be a great asset for this club, especially if he could control his temperament) who proved his worth in Primera playing superbly for Malaga, Sao Paulo's Baptista, Antonio Lopez (Valladolid), Tenerife's Marti or Carlos from Mallorca should all add that much needed killer-instinct to the side which already has one of the toughest and best organized defences in the league!
HTH's? I wouldn't rate them as important here, but for those who are interested here are the results from last 5 between these two at Nou Kamp (note that famous victory Sevilla got last season!):
15.12.2002. Barcelona 0 : 3 Sevilla
13.01.2002. Barcelona 3 : 1 Sevilla
22.04.2000. Barcelona 1 : 0 Sevilla
23.03.1997. Barcelona 4 : 0 Sevilla
05.05.1996. Barcelona 1 : 1 Sevilla
Back to this game - Barca won't be able to count on several of their first team players; including Kluivert, Saviola, Cocu, Overmars, Van Bronckhorst, Reiziger and Rustu (important EURO2004 qualifying matches are the main reason Barca will be without 5 of their Dutch players). The likes of Ronaldinho, Luis Enrique, Quaresma, Xavi, etc. will play, and Barca's team still looks veru strong indeed. But on the other hand, +1 on Sevilla is too big, don't you agree. Barca without their offensive trio Kluivert, Saviola, Overmars - up against one of the best defences in the league...
Probable lineups (source marca):
Barcelona: Valdés; Puyol, Márquez, Andersson, Oscar López, Xavi, Gerard, Quaresma, Ronaldinho, Inesta, Luis Enrique.
Sevilla: Notario; Daniel, Javi Navarro, Pablo Alfaro, David, Gallardo, Baptista, Casquero, Martí (Marcos Vales); Reyes, Darío Silva.
The bookmakers have overestimated Barca and their 'name' here. Sevilla are no mugs, they are very organized side, hard to break down, and in Dario Silva and Reyes they have probably the paciest attckaing duo in the league - really superb for counter-attacking style. Take the visitors, they have much better chances to get something from this game than these odds suggest! Good luck!
1 UNIT TO WIN 1
15-12
+2.45 units
1 more to come...
