Guys, I only do this for the first week of college football and then I post my plays exclusively on my site. It just gets to chaotic to keep up with everything and evryone's threads over here during the regular season. I DO hope that everyone beats the man this year though. I am still waiting on a line to get better on Navy and then I will likely add that as a play as well. I may add one more TOTAL play other than that, but this is about it. Good luck, guys!
Minnesota -6.5 for 5 UNITS -- I had to bet this now as it keeps getting worse and worse for Syracuse. I will write more on this play later, but the bottomline is that we know how bad they were last season and they have had 23 players, some of them starters, leave the program since the hiring of the new coach. Add another starter to the list today as their starting linebacker, Derek Hines, left the team. There is very little talent on this team and now there is very little depth. Minnesota may be a fade later, but they are bringing back 17 starters off a 7-6 team from last year and this should be an easy cover even if it is on the road.
Oregon +5.5 for 3 UNITS -- I'll get into some more specifics on this game later. I considered and already listed this game as good value bet on the ML, but I decided to play the points because 4 other handicappers I respect highly are all on Oregon in this spot -- GoSooners, Conan, UOweDucks and pags11. I see their reasoning and agree. You need to get on it, too. I'm sure GoSooners will be posting his reasons on this game soon, so check out his thread.
Colorado -9.5 (-130) FOR 5 UNITS -- Guys, I have been watching this game for about a month as I think Colorado will be improved this year and they finally have their linemen healthy. They still have not decided on a starting QB between Hawkins and Hansen, but whoever they go with will be experienced and decent. Both QBs have been taking equal snaps in practice. Coach Hawkins latest report was that he was pleased with the progress of the offense and defense and the coaching staff had decided on who the playmakers were going to be for their team, so they could start deciding on what schemes were going to work best.
There are three factors though that have me taking this play:
1.) Last year this game was played on a neutral field and Colorado was favored by -11. They ended up winning the game by 21 points and covering the line. This year, the game is being played at Boulder and Colorado is a better team while CSU is not quite as good as they were last season.
2.) Colorado will be a much improved running team this year with their stud RBs having a year's experience and the offensive line finally being healthy. That is bad for a CSU defense who allowed their opponents 5.3 ypc last season. With 3 new defensive linemen in the starting rotation for CSU and 2 new LBs, improvement does not look promising.
3.) An article today mentioned that CSU has not only NOT decided on a starting QB yet, but they actually called up one of their former QBs who had been playing WR to start working with the 1st and 2nd team offenses (See article posted in this thread on pg. 2, post #48). With less than two weeks left before their opening game, this looks like a desperate move on CSU's coaching staff.
This is shaping up to be a very good bet, guys, get on it!
UTEP -6.5 (-130) for 3 UNITS -- It was going to be a tough season for Buffalo anyway after losing their great QB from last year, Drew Willy. Their only other hope for offense was heavily placed on their RB, James Stark, who averaged close to 5 ypc last year and racked up 1,333 yards on the season. Today, it was reported that Starks is injured and will not be able to play this season. His college career is done. So is Buffalo's season pretty much having to break in a new QB, new RB and new offensive line all in the same season.
UTEP's offense is ahead of schedule according to latest reports and they are expected to be very good. The line jumped a whole point today on news of Stark's injury so I had to buy a point to keep this under a TD. UTEP's defense is a typical CUSA conference defense -- which means it is not special -- but I don't think Buffalo will be able to exploit it at all. This should cover easily!
I might add some money to this next week.
Notre Dame -13.5 (-120) for 1 UNIT -- Notre Dame has always had talented recruits coming into the program and nothing has changed from there. This program has always been loaded with talent. The problem with Notre Dame is that the program has been wallowing in mediocrity for the past 9 seasons under 3 different coaches. This is a team that ought to be putting up double digit wins every season with the talent they have coming in, but for some reason they have done nothing but ride a roller coaster ride of up and down seasons. Weiss will be in his 5th season with the team and is only an average 29-21 as their head coach. I personally don't think Weiss is a bad coach, but I think the pressures of being the head coach of a program as huge as Notre Dame tends to get to these guys. Weiss came into the head coaching job in 2005 and took a team that was very mediocre the two years previous to this and went 9-3 and 10-3 in 2006. So, anyone that tells me the guy is not capable as a head coach is just not seeing the big picture with him in my opinion. Notre Dame graduated some major talent in 2006 and haven't recovered since then. However, there was improvement last season over the disastrous year in 2007, especially defensively. I know that Jon Tenuta was only hired last season to be a "co-defensive coordinator," but let's face it, he's the real brains of the defensive coaching staff and probably the reason the defense showed improvement last season. This season, Weiss has given Tenuta the sole responsibility of calling the plays defensively. The talent is set in all areas of the defense and I expect Notre Dame to have their best defensive season since 2002.
Offensively, Notre Dame brings back 9 starters off an offense that also improved last season over 2007. Still, as great as that sounds, Notre Dame's main weaknesses last year was their run game. This was largely due to the running backs not being very tough and the offensive line was weak in their run blocking. The RB coach and the OL coach were both given tasks of making these guys tougher. A lot of it was started by conditioning routines in the offseason and I look for them to really step up the toughness drills with these guys in August. IF the offensive line improves to their potential this season, there may be no limit as to how far the Fighting Irish will go this season.
Nevada will be a force on offense this season, but mainly at home or in the WAC. Their defense though is atrocious. This is a tale of two levels -- Notre Dame at a true BCS level and Nevada at a true non-BCS level. Many will bet on Nevada because they have received a lot of hype in the preseason as a possible "BCS Buster" team. The truth will be found out here in this game as it is a mismatch in talent.
Stanford -16.5 for 1 UNIT -- I would have liked to have meade this for more UNITS, but it is hard for me to do so with a team like Stanford laying DDs on the road. Look, guys, this comes down to the fact that I do not see WSU being any better than they were last season. They have had some defections over the offseason and there is nothing that has been done that would convince me that they have made some major changes.
Stanford, however, has been making changes to try and be better. They bring back 17 starters off last season's 5-7 team, and they have replaced their very mediocre QB, Pritchard, with a talented redshirt Freshman QB, Andrew Luck. Luck is a Jim Harbaugh recruit and he is the future of this program. Having an upgrade in QB is worth a TD for this match-up in itself. Last year, Stanford beat WSU at home 58-0. I don't see that kind of outing on the road, but we only have to cover -17.
Georgia +6 for 1 UNIT -- Oklahoma State has been catching a lot of preseason hype this offseason for their awesome offensive play. The hype peaked whenever for the first time in Oklahoma State history, the team was mentioned in the Top 10 Preseason poll by the AP. Oklahoma State has been hearing how great their defense is and how great they are going to be this year since their last season ended in literal ass-kicking by Oregon in the Holiday Bowl. It was in that game that Oklahoma State found out that they are a true "finesse" team and are not very tough. The coaches have said in the offseason that they have been working with the players to increase their toughness -- maybe they have, maybe they haven't.
Tough or not, this Oklahoma State team is loaded offensively and we all acknowledge that. However, one thing that has been missing in all the preseason hype is what is going on with the Oklahoma State defense? This defense allowed over 28 ppg last season and 406 ypg of total offense. They had to replace 5 starters -- 2 on the defensive front and 3 in the defensive backfield -- from last season. Guys, this is not Texas, Oklahoma, USC or Florida, OSU cannot reload with quality talent every year, they have to build it. So I ask again, what is the defense going to do to get Championship quality better? Oklahoma State's answer? Hire a new DC after their DC from last season went to Toledo to become the head coach. Guys, coaches to play the game, and they can't make major improvements in units if they do not have the talent to work with. This defense is soft and Georgia will exploit it.
The other team, Georgia, has not heard the trumpets and seen the banners flying all offseason about how they are going to win championships and be great this season, like they did last season. Gone are the three studded amigos: Stafford, Moreno and Massaquoi. In comes some barely known skill players to play behind one of the best offensive lines in the country. Joe Cox, a 5 year senior QB, will lead the team this season. He is described as a QB that is very capable, will not turn the ball over, but will not be drafted by the NFL. We don't know much about the RB/RBs except to say that Georgia is almost always loaded and puts out "no name" RBs regularly who become stars. The big "?" mark will be the receivers, but I think they will have some who can catch passes. The defense brings back 8 starters and even more experienced players and should better their mediocre stats from last season.
What is going to be the key to this cover? Mark Richt is 30-4 at opponents home stadiums. Mark Richt is 36-4 in non SEC games. Mark Richt and his team has been disrespected in this match-up as many analysts are picking Oklahoma State to win this game SU. Mark Richt may have his most solid and unified "team" in some time -- not all stars, no NFL draft picks, just a solid team. I think Georgia is going to control the line of scrimmage offensively and control the tempo of the ball game with their running game. This will keep OSU's offense off the field as much as possible. +6 points is a lot of points for a top quality football team from the SEC with their proven track record on the road in non-conference games. I'll take the points for a small play.
Idaho +3.5 for 1 UNIT -- This is a game between the two WAC bottom dwellers. Neither Idaho or New Mexico St either one is very good and will not be very good this season . . . . at least SU. Idaho leads this series though between these two teams winning 4 of the last 5 games and 11 of the last 15. It hasn't seemed to matter where the game was being played. Last season, Idaho beat what could have been a better New Mexico St team (at least they still had their QB, Chase Holbrook) 20-14. Idaho goes on the road in this game but they return almost all their skill position players and 6 starters on defense. New Mexico State returns only 10 starters on both sides of the ball. The Idaho coach feels that their camp has gone well and he sees improvement in their team. NMSU has been learning new schemes on both sides of the ball with the advent of their new Head Coach. Both sides suck, but we'll take the points for a small play.
Arizona/Central Michigan UNDER 54 for 2 UNITS -- I wanted to take Arizona in this matchup before Fall camp started, but I have been glad I did not take them early after seeing the results of their Fall Camp. It looked like Matt Scott was definitely going to be the QB after Spring practices, but through the Fall camp, none of the QBs have looked good and Nick Foles is even with Matt Scott currently (9-1-09) going into game one where a clear starter has not been named at this position. Also, it was announced today that Arizona's stud Tight End, Rob Gronkowski, will likely miss this game. Even if he does play, he has had back problems for the last three weeks and has sat out of practice. He's not ready to play.
Another reason why the offense has not looked good in Fall practice, and it definitely has not according to OC, Sonny Dykes, is because of the stout Arizona defense they have had to run against in practices. Stoops has called this defense the best one he has had since he began coaching at Arizona. That plays mightily into an UNDER play alone without the offensive problems.
Central Michigan is a MAC team with an outstanding QB. Unfortunately, while CMU brings back 10 starters off their defense of last season, they bring back only 5 starters on offense. Three of the vacancies they will be filling offensively is on the offensive line and that is always a question mark coming into the start of a season with a team. Still, this aside, CMU is a good ball team whenever they play teams of same talent or lesser talent like they do in the MAC. But, Arizona will outclass CMU and shut down their offense like BCS teams in the past have done.
Oklahoma -20.5 (-130) for 1 UNIT -- I have seen a lot of posts by cappers -- some I highly respect -- that is actually giving BYU a chance to hang in this game. Hell, Andre Ware, ESPN analyst has even gone on record saying BYU will upset Oklahoma in this spot! I don't see it, guys, and I think Oklahoma blows them out of this game. I looked for every way to take BYU, especially whenever Oklahoma's offensive line was still in doubt before Fall camp, but the way everything is playing out, it has to be an Oklahoma bet or none. I'm laying small on Oklahoma and here are the reasons why:
-- The offensive line has responded to the challenges and harsh criticism that Stoops gave them back in the early Spring. The only position that has had some concern through Fall camp has been at center where there has been a couple of injuries. But, Oklahoma has been working a TE, Brody Eldridge, at the position for the last 3 weeks and will go with him to start. They love how he has responded to the new assignment and he has loved the opportunity to play. Guys, Trent Williams, the Sr. left tackle, will go in the top 10 of the NFL draft next year . . . . mark my words! No, this unit is not as strong as last year's unit, but all these guys played in games the last couple of years and have experience, AND they have worked their butts off in the offseason. They will be fine.
-- BYU brings back their QB, Max Hall, and he is a good QB. They also get back Unga and Tonga from injury list and these guys are a couple of bruisers for sure. But, they bring back only 4 starters off last year's team and most of their holes were on the offensive line. Now, injuries has depleted the line and made it very shallow in depth. They will be going against the best defensive line in the nation in this matchup! Word is already out -- pressure Hall, and he will fold like a wet napkin. I can promise you there will be plenty of pressure on Hall the entire game as Oklahoma is deep enough to send fresh troops after him on every down!
-- Defensively, BYU is bruised, injured and shallow in depth. This is a weak secondary, especially at corner back, and they are facing a team that averaged 51 ppg last year led by the Heisman QB, Sam Bradford! The only weakness Oklahoma may have that was not there last season is at WR. BUT, word has leaked that DeMarco Murray and Mossis Madu will run some WR routes and slotback style pass plays coming out of the backfield. Damn, Oklahoma has way too many weapons for BYU to keep up with and Wilson is going to be revealing more! ALSO, and this is important: if you are a banged up, shallow depthed defense, the last thing you want to see and play against in the opening game of the season is a "no huddle" style offense. Look for Oklahoma to break this game wide open in the second half if they have not already done so by halftime. In fact, if by some chance this game is within two TDs by halftime, bet Oklahoma for the 2nd half.
Don't get caught up in the "BYU ALWAYS gets up for these kind of games" fodder that is going on around the internet, guys. BYU has never had a game of this magnitude to open the season. Also, it is being played in the Sooners' second home -- the Dallas area. It is NOT a true neutral site.
Army +5 for 1 UNIT -- I think it's safe to say that Army has been the red-headed step child of the FBS for many years now. They have not had a winning season since 1996 and are 30-108 SU since that season. They have not been any better ATS. They have not beaten a top 20 team since 1972. This team has been bad. I blame most of their poor success on bad systems that just have not fit a military type school playing in the FBS. Both Navy and Air Force have been successful by running option style offenses year after year. Army has switched from option, to pro-style, to back to option last season. Last year, after another dismal 3-9 season, Army decided another coaching change was needed. Out went 2 year head coach, Stan Brock, in comes former Cal-Poly head coach, Rich Ellerson. Ellerson brings with him the offensive scheme Army needs to stay with -- the triple option. This will be a triple option style closer to Air Force's though as Ellerson likes to throw the ball a bit more in his schemes. Bowden took over the QB role last season after 3 games into the season and rushed for 572 yards last season in the option game. I look for him to improve on those numbers this year if he remains healthy. I look for this team to be better this season for these reasons: a much softer schedule than they have had in the past, 2nd year of running an option style offense, experience coming back on defense where they made a lot of improvement last year.
Guys, I actually think that with their softer schedule and the tendency for them to get good dog lines, Army could be a good team to play-on this season for a change. Most every bettor has had a tendency to fade Army in the past, and rightfully so, because of their poor performances. I think the mind set will likely be the same this season, especially earlier on in the season. Teams are not going to be ready for Army to run the triple option and I think they can catch some teams by surprise. Last season they even went 2-0 in the home favorite role, so I wouldn't even fade them as favorites. They haven't got to play this easy of a schedule in a long time.
Eastern Michigan may be bringing back 17 starters off last year's team, but that was a team that lost to the Knights by 4 points, too. I actually think Army is going to be the better team in this match-up and with them catching +5 points, I'm on them small here.
Tulsa/Tulane UNDER 64.5 for 2 UNITS -- It's usually hazardous to your pocketbook to play the UNDER on a CUSA game where defense is usually something that runs around your back yard. But I think it's warranted here for these reasons:
-- Tulsa only brings back 5 starters on offense from a team that averaged over 47 ppg last year. One of those starters needing replaced is the QB . . . who has yet to be named. Tulsa says they know who the QB will be, but their not telling until game time. That's fine, whoever it is it will be his first collegiate start and he will do it on the road. Tulsa will find a way to be offensively proficient this season, but it may not necessarily start this game.
-- IF Tulsa does happen to get their offense rolling this game, that doesn't mean Tulane will as well. Last year, Tulsa won this game 56-7 where Tulane only scored 1 TD. Tulane is not impressive offensively and will likely be the same this season with little improvement. Their main focus this offseason has been on improving their defense, and the latest practices have looked promising along that order. Their new defensive coordinator believes in a more aggressive defensive package, and if they can implement it against Tulsa, it could give the new Tulsa QB some fits. Tulsa's defense showed some improvement last year and Graham thinks he has his best defense to date.
Everything here leans towards the UNDER, guys.
Minnesota -6.5 for 5 UNITS -- I had to bet this now as it keeps getting worse and worse for Syracuse. I will write more on this play later, but the bottomline is that we know how bad they were last season and they have had 23 players, some of them starters, leave the program since the hiring of the new coach. Add another starter to the list today as their starting linebacker, Derek Hines, left the team. There is very little talent on this team and now there is very little depth. Minnesota may be a fade later, but they are bringing back 17 starters off a 7-6 team from last year and this should be an easy cover even if it is on the road.
Oregon +5.5 for 3 UNITS -- I'll get into some more specifics on this game later. I considered and already listed this game as good value bet on the ML, but I decided to play the points because 4 other handicappers I respect highly are all on Oregon in this spot -- GoSooners, Conan, UOweDucks and pags11. I see their reasoning and agree. You need to get on it, too. I'm sure GoSooners will be posting his reasons on this game soon, so check out his thread.
Colorado -9.5 (-130) FOR 5 UNITS -- Guys, I have been watching this game for about a month as I think Colorado will be improved this year and they finally have their linemen healthy. They still have not decided on a starting QB between Hawkins and Hansen, but whoever they go with will be experienced and decent. Both QBs have been taking equal snaps in practice. Coach Hawkins latest report was that he was pleased with the progress of the offense and defense and the coaching staff had decided on who the playmakers were going to be for their team, so they could start deciding on what schemes were going to work best.
There are three factors though that have me taking this play:
1.) Last year this game was played on a neutral field and Colorado was favored by -11. They ended up winning the game by 21 points and covering the line. This year, the game is being played at Boulder and Colorado is a better team while CSU is not quite as good as they were last season.
2.) Colorado will be a much improved running team this year with their stud RBs having a year's experience and the offensive line finally being healthy. That is bad for a CSU defense who allowed their opponents 5.3 ypc last season. With 3 new defensive linemen in the starting rotation for CSU and 2 new LBs, improvement does not look promising.
3.) An article today mentioned that CSU has not only NOT decided on a starting QB yet, but they actually called up one of their former QBs who had been playing WR to start working with the 1st and 2nd team offenses (See article posted in this thread on pg. 2, post #48). With less than two weeks left before their opening game, this looks like a desperate move on CSU's coaching staff.
This is shaping up to be a very good bet, guys, get on it!
UTEP -6.5 (-130) for 3 UNITS -- It was going to be a tough season for Buffalo anyway after losing their great QB from last year, Drew Willy. Their only other hope for offense was heavily placed on their RB, James Stark, who averaged close to 5 ypc last year and racked up 1,333 yards on the season. Today, it was reported that Starks is injured and will not be able to play this season. His college career is done. So is Buffalo's season pretty much having to break in a new QB, new RB and new offensive line all in the same season.
UTEP's offense is ahead of schedule according to latest reports and they are expected to be very good. The line jumped a whole point today on news of Stark's injury so I had to buy a point to keep this under a TD. UTEP's defense is a typical CUSA conference defense -- which means it is not special -- but I don't think Buffalo will be able to exploit it at all. This should cover easily!
I might add some money to this next week.
Notre Dame -13.5 (-120) for 1 UNIT -- Notre Dame has always had talented recruits coming into the program and nothing has changed from there. This program has always been loaded with talent. The problem with Notre Dame is that the program has been wallowing in mediocrity for the past 9 seasons under 3 different coaches. This is a team that ought to be putting up double digit wins every season with the talent they have coming in, but for some reason they have done nothing but ride a roller coaster ride of up and down seasons. Weiss will be in his 5th season with the team and is only an average 29-21 as their head coach. I personally don't think Weiss is a bad coach, but I think the pressures of being the head coach of a program as huge as Notre Dame tends to get to these guys. Weiss came into the head coaching job in 2005 and took a team that was very mediocre the two years previous to this and went 9-3 and 10-3 in 2006. So, anyone that tells me the guy is not capable as a head coach is just not seeing the big picture with him in my opinion. Notre Dame graduated some major talent in 2006 and haven't recovered since then. However, there was improvement last season over the disastrous year in 2007, especially defensively. I know that Jon Tenuta was only hired last season to be a "co-defensive coordinator," but let's face it, he's the real brains of the defensive coaching staff and probably the reason the defense showed improvement last season. This season, Weiss has given Tenuta the sole responsibility of calling the plays defensively. The talent is set in all areas of the defense and I expect Notre Dame to have their best defensive season since 2002.
Offensively, Notre Dame brings back 9 starters off an offense that also improved last season over 2007. Still, as great as that sounds, Notre Dame's main weaknesses last year was their run game. This was largely due to the running backs not being very tough and the offensive line was weak in their run blocking. The RB coach and the OL coach were both given tasks of making these guys tougher. A lot of it was started by conditioning routines in the offseason and I look for them to really step up the toughness drills with these guys in August. IF the offensive line improves to their potential this season, there may be no limit as to how far the Fighting Irish will go this season.
Nevada will be a force on offense this season, but mainly at home or in the WAC. Their defense though is atrocious. This is a tale of two levels -- Notre Dame at a true BCS level and Nevada at a true non-BCS level. Many will bet on Nevada because they have received a lot of hype in the preseason as a possible "BCS Buster" team. The truth will be found out here in this game as it is a mismatch in talent.
Stanford -16.5 for 1 UNIT -- I would have liked to have meade this for more UNITS, but it is hard for me to do so with a team like Stanford laying DDs on the road. Look, guys, this comes down to the fact that I do not see WSU being any better than they were last season. They have had some defections over the offseason and there is nothing that has been done that would convince me that they have made some major changes.
Stanford, however, has been making changes to try and be better. They bring back 17 starters off last season's 5-7 team, and they have replaced their very mediocre QB, Pritchard, with a talented redshirt Freshman QB, Andrew Luck. Luck is a Jim Harbaugh recruit and he is the future of this program. Having an upgrade in QB is worth a TD for this match-up in itself. Last year, Stanford beat WSU at home 58-0. I don't see that kind of outing on the road, but we only have to cover -17.
Georgia +6 for 1 UNIT -- Oklahoma State has been catching a lot of preseason hype this offseason for their awesome offensive play. The hype peaked whenever for the first time in Oklahoma State history, the team was mentioned in the Top 10 Preseason poll by the AP. Oklahoma State has been hearing how great their defense is and how great they are going to be this year since their last season ended in literal ass-kicking by Oregon in the Holiday Bowl. It was in that game that Oklahoma State found out that they are a true "finesse" team and are not very tough. The coaches have said in the offseason that they have been working with the players to increase their toughness -- maybe they have, maybe they haven't.
Tough or not, this Oklahoma State team is loaded offensively and we all acknowledge that. However, one thing that has been missing in all the preseason hype is what is going on with the Oklahoma State defense? This defense allowed over 28 ppg last season and 406 ypg of total offense. They had to replace 5 starters -- 2 on the defensive front and 3 in the defensive backfield -- from last season. Guys, this is not Texas, Oklahoma, USC or Florida, OSU cannot reload with quality talent every year, they have to build it. So I ask again, what is the defense going to do to get Championship quality better? Oklahoma State's answer? Hire a new DC after their DC from last season went to Toledo to become the head coach. Guys, coaches to play the game, and they can't make major improvements in units if they do not have the talent to work with. This defense is soft and Georgia will exploit it.
The other team, Georgia, has not heard the trumpets and seen the banners flying all offseason about how they are going to win championships and be great this season, like they did last season. Gone are the three studded amigos: Stafford, Moreno and Massaquoi. In comes some barely known skill players to play behind one of the best offensive lines in the country. Joe Cox, a 5 year senior QB, will lead the team this season. He is described as a QB that is very capable, will not turn the ball over, but will not be drafted by the NFL. We don't know much about the RB/RBs except to say that Georgia is almost always loaded and puts out "no name" RBs regularly who become stars. The big "?" mark will be the receivers, but I think they will have some who can catch passes. The defense brings back 8 starters and even more experienced players and should better their mediocre stats from last season.
What is going to be the key to this cover? Mark Richt is 30-4 at opponents home stadiums. Mark Richt is 36-4 in non SEC games. Mark Richt and his team has been disrespected in this match-up as many analysts are picking Oklahoma State to win this game SU. Mark Richt may have his most solid and unified "team" in some time -- not all stars, no NFL draft picks, just a solid team. I think Georgia is going to control the line of scrimmage offensively and control the tempo of the ball game with their running game. This will keep OSU's offense off the field as much as possible. +6 points is a lot of points for a top quality football team from the SEC with their proven track record on the road in non-conference games. I'll take the points for a small play.
Idaho +3.5 for 1 UNIT -- This is a game between the two WAC bottom dwellers. Neither Idaho or New Mexico St either one is very good and will not be very good this season . . . . at least SU. Idaho leads this series though between these two teams winning 4 of the last 5 games and 11 of the last 15. It hasn't seemed to matter where the game was being played. Last season, Idaho beat what could have been a better New Mexico St team (at least they still had their QB, Chase Holbrook) 20-14. Idaho goes on the road in this game but they return almost all their skill position players and 6 starters on defense. New Mexico State returns only 10 starters on both sides of the ball. The Idaho coach feels that their camp has gone well and he sees improvement in their team. NMSU has been learning new schemes on both sides of the ball with the advent of their new Head Coach. Both sides suck, but we'll take the points for a small play.
Arizona/Central Michigan UNDER 54 for 2 UNITS -- I wanted to take Arizona in this matchup before Fall camp started, but I have been glad I did not take them early after seeing the results of their Fall Camp. It looked like Matt Scott was definitely going to be the QB after Spring practices, but through the Fall camp, none of the QBs have looked good and Nick Foles is even with Matt Scott currently (9-1-09) going into game one where a clear starter has not been named at this position. Also, it was announced today that Arizona's stud Tight End, Rob Gronkowski, will likely miss this game. Even if he does play, he has had back problems for the last three weeks and has sat out of practice. He's not ready to play.
Another reason why the offense has not looked good in Fall practice, and it definitely has not according to OC, Sonny Dykes, is because of the stout Arizona defense they have had to run against in practices. Stoops has called this defense the best one he has had since he began coaching at Arizona. That plays mightily into an UNDER play alone without the offensive problems.
Central Michigan is a MAC team with an outstanding QB. Unfortunately, while CMU brings back 10 starters off their defense of last season, they bring back only 5 starters on offense. Three of the vacancies they will be filling offensively is on the offensive line and that is always a question mark coming into the start of a season with a team. Still, this aside, CMU is a good ball team whenever they play teams of same talent or lesser talent like they do in the MAC. But, Arizona will outclass CMU and shut down their offense like BCS teams in the past have done.
Oklahoma -20.5 (-130) for 1 UNIT -- I have seen a lot of posts by cappers -- some I highly respect -- that is actually giving BYU a chance to hang in this game. Hell, Andre Ware, ESPN analyst has even gone on record saying BYU will upset Oklahoma in this spot! I don't see it, guys, and I think Oklahoma blows them out of this game. I looked for every way to take BYU, especially whenever Oklahoma's offensive line was still in doubt before Fall camp, but the way everything is playing out, it has to be an Oklahoma bet or none. I'm laying small on Oklahoma and here are the reasons why:
-- The offensive line has responded to the challenges and harsh criticism that Stoops gave them back in the early Spring. The only position that has had some concern through Fall camp has been at center where there has been a couple of injuries. But, Oklahoma has been working a TE, Brody Eldridge, at the position for the last 3 weeks and will go with him to start. They love how he has responded to the new assignment and he has loved the opportunity to play. Guys, Trent Williams, the Sr. left tackle, will go in the top 10 of the NFL draft next year . . . . mark my words! No, this unit is not as strong as last year's unit, but all these guys played in games the last couple of years and have experience, AND they have worked their butts off in the offseason. They will be fine.
-- BYU brings back their QB, Max Hall, and he is a good QB. They also get back Unga and Tonga from injury list and these guys are a couple of bruisers for sure. But, they bring back only 4 starters off last year's team and most of their holes were on the offensive line. Now, injuries has depleted the line and made it very shallow in depth. They will be going against the best defensive line in the nation in this matchup! Word is already out -- pressure Hall, and he will fold like a wet napkin. I can promise you there will be plenty of pressure on Hall the entire game as Oklahoma is deep enough to send fresh troops after him on every down!
-- Defensively, BYU is bruised, injured and shallow in depth. This is a weak secondary, especially at corner back, and they are facing a team that averaged 51 ppg last year led by the Heisman QB, Sam Bradford! The only weakness Oklahoma may have that was not there last season is at WR. BUT, word has leaked that DeMarco Murray and Mossis Madu will run some WR routes and slotback style pass plays coming out of the backfield. Damn, Oklahoma has way too many weapons for BYU to keep up with and Wilson is going to be revealing more! ALSO, and this is important: if you are a banged up, shallow depthed defense, the last thing you want to see and play against in the opening game of the season is a "no huddle" style offense. Look for Oklahoma to break this game wide open in the second half if they have not already done so by halftime. In fact, if by some chance this game is within two TDs by halftime, bet Oklahoma for the 2nd half.
Don't get caught up in the "BYU ALWAYS gets up for these kind of games" fodder that is going on around the internet, guys. BYU has never had a game of this magnitude to open the season. Also, it is being played in the Sooners' second home -- the Dallas area. It is NOT a true neutral site.
Army +5 for 1 UNIT -- I think it's safe to say that Army has been the red-headed step child of the FBS for many years now. They have not had a winning season since 1996 and are 30-108 SU since that season. They have not been any better ATS. They have not beaten a top 20 team since 1972. This team has been bad. I blame most of their poor success on bad systems that just have not fit a military type school playing in the FBS. Both Navy and Air Force have been successful by running option style offenses year after year. Army has switched from option, to pro-style, to back to option last season. Last year, after another dismal 3-9 season, Army decided another coaching change was needed. Out went 2 year head coach, Stan Brock, in comes former Cal-Poly head coach, Rich Ellerson. Ellerson brings with him the offensive scheme Army needs to stay with -- the triple option. This will be a triple option style closer to Air Force's though as Ellerson likes to throw the ball a bit more in his schemes. Bowden took over the QB role last season after 3 games into the season and rushed for 572 yards last season in the option game. I look for him to improve on those numbers this year if he remains healthy. I look for this team to be better this season for these reasons: a much softer schedule than they have had in the past, 2nd year of running an option style offense, experience coming back on defense where they made a lot of improvement last year.
Guys, I actually think that with their softer schedule and the tendency for them to get good dog lines, Army could be a good team to play-on this season for a change. Most every bettor has had a tendency to fade Army in the past, and rightfully so, because of their poor performances. I think the mind set will likely be the same this season, especially earlier on in the season. Teams are not going to be ready for Army to run the triple option and I think they can catch some teams by surprise. Last season they even went 2-0 in the home favorite role, so I wouldn't even fade them as favorites. They haven't got to play this easy of a schedule in a long time.
Eastern Michigan may be bringing back 17 starters off last year's team, but that was a team that lost to the Knights by 4 points, too. I actually think Army is going to be the better team in this match-up and with them catching +5 points, I'm on them small here.
Tulsa/Tulane UNDER 64.5 for 2 UNITS -- It's usually hazardous to your pocketbook to play the UNDER on a CUSA game where defense is usually something that runs around your back yard. But I think it's warranted here for these reasons:
-- Tulsa only brings back 5 starters on offense from a team that averaged over 47 ppg last year. One of those starters needing replaced is the QB . . . who has yet to be named. Tulsa says they know who the QB will be, but their not telling until game time. That's fine, whoever it is it will be his first collegiate start and he will do it on the road. Tulsa will find a way to be offensively proficient this season, but it may not necessarily start this game.
-- IF Tulsa does happen to get their offense rolling this game, that doesn't mean Tulane will as well. Last year, Tulsa won this game 56-7 where Tulane only scored 1 TD. Tulane is not impressive offensively and will likely be the same this season with little improvement. Their main focus this offseason has been on improving their defense, and the latest practices have looked promising along that order. Their new defensive coordinator believes in a more aggressive defensive package, and if they can implement it against Tulsa, it could give the new Tulsa QB some fits. Tulsa's defense showed some improvement last year and Graham thinks he has his best defense to date.
Everything here leans towards the UNDER, guys.
