Here are some teams I am watching for the season that have caught my early attention:
1.) Texas -- I think that Texas will right the ship this year. They are getting virtually no respect by anyone in the nation which is unusual for the Longhorns who the very name has long time struck fear in the hearts of their opponents. My reasons for wanting to bet on them this season:
a.) I really like the assistant coaches positions Mack has assembled. He needed to hit a home run with his choices and I think has has. I've always liked Major Appelwhite even ever since he was a player, he just has a knack of winning (thank you Mack for thinking Chrissy Simms was better than Appelwhite all those years). Him being combined with Bryan Harsin of Boise State should bring a lot of new life to this Texas offense that was badly missing a lack of imagination last season. Whenever you don't have great players like Vince Young and Colt McCoy supplying imagination with their athletic skills at QB, you need to rely on offensive scheme. Both Appelwhite and Harsin have proven they have this ability. I also like the addition of Manny Diaz as defensive coordinator. Texas already has the athletes it needs to be a solid defense and now they will get a defense that is both simple and aggressive with Diaz's schemes.
b.) Texas finally recruited a RB that will likely follow the shoes of former marquee players in superstar billing. They have not had a decent RB since Jamaal Charles left. That will likely change with Brown if he remains healthy and I look for him to take all the time away from Fozzy Whitaker this season.
c.) The defense is loaded with talent and experience. Again, with the schemes Diaz is bringing, I don't think it is going to demand the players to take a lot of time learning what to do. I look for a much more solid defense this season.
d.) The QB job has been opened up for competition this year which is a very good thing. I am still not sure that Texas has a REALLY good QB out of the 4 players vying for the job, but if they can find one guy who is sound, smart and will not turn the ball over a lot, the offensive schemes will provide enough offense to where the QB will not be expected to be a heavy producer.
WEAKNESS -- last season, the Longhorns were seriously weak on the offensive line. This year, they have two of those starters back and the rest are largely inexperienced. The good news is that they are talented athletes, but lighter than standard offensive linemen. This could be good though with a tricky offensive scheme. The success of the offense may weigh heavily on how quick this line grows up and comes together.
2.) Colorado State -- CSU could be one of those sleeper teams that wins you money because they fly under the radar. Last season they had a 3-9 record, but that was largely because of their inexperience at all positions. This season, they bring back 14 starters and 48 lettermen. In the 4 years that Fairchild has been the HC at CSU, this is by far his best team yet. He brings back a Sophomore that had the highest passing efficiency of a D1 QB ever as a freshmen last season at 65%! He has a solid offensive line in front of him, good receivers, and a RB who is a UCLA transfer with much more talent than what he was allowed to show last season.
Defensively they were riddled with injuries and never allowed to get into the flow of the season. The good news is that that allowed players to get a lot of experience they might not have got otherwise. Do not judge them by last year's numbers. If they stay healthy, this will be a solid defense this season.
Another reason to like this team is because they have a very solid special teams unit and return them all this season.
They also have a very favorable schedule this year. Hopefully Vegas will keep them under the radar for a long time this season.
3.) Notre Dame -- I'm anxious to see what the O/U is going to be set at for season wins on Notre Dame by Vegas. I seriously think Notre Dame has a good chance to go 12-0 this season. The real questionable game to me is the season ending game at Stanford. Call my optimism a "faith in a Brian Kelly coached team," more than anything, but I really see a good trend going on with this team. Despite losing his starting QB last year midway through the season, Kelly still managed to get production off his bench and coach ND to an 8-5 season which ended in a big win against Miami in the Sun Bowl.
Crist will return as the starter this year at QB, but if he goes down again ND is loaded at back up. The offensive line is solid, the RB averaged 5.3 ypc last year and the receivers are all back. Defensively, they only allowed 20 ppg last year and they recruited very well on this side of the ball in the offseason. The defense should only get better, which again is what you would expect with a Brian Kelly team.
I don't look for ND to fly in under the radar this year, and the best bet all year may be the season O/U wins, but they will certainly bear some serious watching this season. No one is talking about them winning the National Championship, and yet, if they put in an undefeated regular season, what do you do with them? They obviously play a good enough schedule to be put into the NC game. This could get interesting.
4.) Idaho -- don't laugh, yet. One will look at this year's team and say, "they're starting QB of years past, Nathan Enderle, is gone and they only return 4 starters off their prolific offense of the last two years." But, the cupboard is not bare. Brian Reader will be starting at QB and he is a senior who played in 10 games last season and went 42 of 71 for 60% throwing the ball. They will also have Arizona State transfer RB, Ryan Bass playing who was a PS #4 and has a very physical body to go with speed. He will likely make a big impact in the WAC this year. Last year's offensive line was inexperienced and it showed up in some games. The good news is that several players got good playing time. Steele shows 8 out of the best 10 linemen from last season's team will be back this year. Experience is a big plus on offensive lines.
Now, side this little considered offensive information with what we can expect on Defense -- a defense that improved by 8 points allowed last season returns 8 starters! Allowing only 28 ppg in the WAC conference is pretty sound defense. They not only have starters back, but they are deep in experience with some good JC recruitment as well.
Guys, this is a team that will definitely fly under the radar and should win us some money this season.
5.) Houston -- there are several reasons to like Houston this year: Case Keenum is back after missing last season due to injury, Kevin Sumlin is a good coach and you can always expect his teams to do well, this team is coming off an unusual 5-7 season mostly due to injuries, they went 3-9 ATS last year which usually means a rebound year in this category, and they bring back a lot of experience with 12 starters and 52 lettermen.
Offensively, Houston has a great corps of skilled players as they usually do. Case Keenum, if he remains healthy, will likely lead the nation in passing statistics. Defensivley, well, even though they bring back a lot of experience, they are still a CUSA team and no one hardly plays defense in CUSA.
There will likely be a lot of scoring with this team this year, so if the lines are decent, they could be a good bet all season.
