Someone tell me how Michigan gets to 8 wins

[easy_money]

I don't see it. Love Under 7.5.

@Utah
Oregon St.
UNLV
BYU
@Maryland
Northwestern
Michigan St.
@Minnesota
Rutgers
@Indiana
@Penn St.
Ohio St.

I would break down their odds as follows and these are generous:
@Utah - 40%
Oregon St. 80%
UNLV 99%
BYU 58%
@Maryland 52%
Northwestern 70%
Michigan St. 38%
@Minnesota 50%
Rutgers 65%
@Indiana 70%
@Penn St. 45%
Ohio St. 25%

That puts them at 6.92 Wins. They have a new coach, new QB, lose a couple of their best defensive players. I realize Michigan is always going to be a little overrated but what gives?

 

[thecruncher]

Win the first 6, then Rutgers and Indiana!

 

[SundayTiger]

@Utah
Oregon St. W
UNLV W
BYU
@Maryland W
Northwestern W
Michigan St.
@Minnesota
Rutgers W
@Indiana W
@Penn St.
Ohio St.

Split the Utah/BYU games for 7, and then you need one more from the games left. It can happen.

 

[Murphy8276]

Win the first 6, then Rutgers and Indiana!

Utah will get them easily I think and BYU out of that bunch.

-murph

 

[RunLeeRun]

I've been slow to get on the bandwagon. One of the things I always point out is that the last few years a good chunk of their top 300 type recruits haven't panned out. Even with that said, they probably have the 3rd best collection of talent in the Big Ten behind Ohio State and Michigan State. That means they are more talented than 10 teams on that list. It's up to Harbaugh to mend the psyche and get a decent game manager into some kind of rhythm. I can see them starting off slow but by the time they get BYU at home, BYU should be beat down from @Nebraska, Boise, @ UCLA then @ Michigan....that's a tough stretch for the Cougars. You wouldn't want to be sitting on the under with Michigan at 3-1. If you are 2-2, you are looking good. But just like you can't guarantee they will beat all the far lesser teams on the schedule, don't count them out against the Big Two. Remember Harbaugh coached that 41 point dog win.

 

[REDEYE]

best total on the board imo under 7 1/2

 

[GoSooners]

I've been slow to get on the bandwagon. One of the things I always point out is that the last few years a good chunk of their top 300 type recruits haven't panned out. Even with that said, they probably have the 3rd best collection of talent in the Big Ten behind Ohio State and Michigan State. That means they are more talented than 10 teams on that list. It's up to Harbaugh to mend the psyche and get a decent game manager into some kind of rhythm. I can see them starting off slow but by the time they get BYU at home, BYU should be beat down from @Nebraska, Boise, @ UCLA then @ Michigan....that's a tough stretch for the Cougars. You wouldn't want to be sitting on the under with Michigan at 3-1. If you are 2-2, you are looking good. But just like you can't guarantee they will beat all the far lesser teams on the schedule, don't count them out against the Big Two. Remember Harbaugh coached that 41 point dog win.

RLR, what do you think of Nebraska playing BYU right out of the gate? I'm leaning BYU covering that game and possibly winning outright..The Cougs always seem to be really tough in these kinds of games early in the year.

 

[RunLeeRun]

RLR, what do you think of Nebraska playing BYU right out of the gate? I'm leaning BYU covering that game and possibly winning outright..The Cougs always seem to be really tough in these kinds of games early in the year.

Yeah I agree. If it was later in the year, I'd feel better. BYU is a grown ass team and the defend the run well (Nebraska's strength). Nebraska should be better against the run just by virtue of a new scheme that focuses on the run, but they could take some lumps early. Now, here is a big catch that might break Nebraska's way, there could be as many as 10 player suspensions. That might be a game changer and if that's the case this line might even get close to 10....at least over a td.

 

[DropDimes]

Yeah I agree. If it was later in the year, I'd feel better. BYU is a grown ass team and the defend the run well (Nebraska's strength). Nebraska should be better against the run just by virtue of a new scheme that focuses on the run, but they could take some lumps early. Now, here is a big catch that might break Nebraska's way, there could be as many as 10 player suspensions. That might be a game changer and if that's the case this line might even get close to 10....at least over a td.

Lee - I usually agree with what you say, and I agree with all of this except for your comments about BYU's run D. A lot of what their numbers last year, in my opinion was smoke and mirrors. Take out Savannah St, and 6 of their 12 opponents were 84th, 97th, 98th, 102nd, 103rd, and 116th in Rushing O. So half of their schedule was against the bottom 33% of rushing teams in the country. In those games they still only managed to hold those teams to a combined 1 yard below their combined season averages.

In the other six games, all of BYU's opponents were in the top 50 in rushing O, and they went 2-4 in those games. The two wins came against Houston who only had six carries by RB's in that game, and against Middle Tenn. St. who beat one team with a winning record all year (they had six wins against teams who went 26-47). In going 0-4 against Boise St., Nevada, Utah St., and Memphis (29th, 36th, 38th and 49th respectively in rushing O) they gave up 4.03 YPC, .8 YPC more than the rest of their games. While Nebraska no longer has Abdullah, and we dont know what the new scheme will look like entirely, conventional wisdom would make you think Nebraska will stay close to their #17 ranked rushing O and they averaged 5.3 YPC. I think this will be a pretty dang close game, and in my opinion probably high scoring, but I think Nebraska runs all over BYU. Whether Nebraska can slow down Hill is another question entirely, and will likely determine the winner.

 

[rolltide]

I don't see it. Love Under 7.5.

@Utah
Oregon St.
UNLV
BYU
@Maryland
Northwestern
Michigan St.
@Minnesota
Rutgers
@Indiana
@Penn St.
Ohio St.

i don't see this as a particularly difficult schedule. obviously mich st and ohio st are tough games (both top 10 preseason) but there isn't another preseason top 29 school on the schedule. I'd have a hard time pulling the trigger on u7.5 for a team that is a TD+ underdog in only 1 game this year

 

[RunLeeRun]

Lee - I usually agree with what you say, and I agree with all of this except for your comments about BYU's run D. A lot of what their numbers last year, in my opinion was smoke and mirrors. Take out Savannah St, and 6 of their 12 opponents were 84th, 97th, 98th, 102nd, 103rd, and 116th in Rushing O. So half of their schedule was against the bottom 33% of rushing teams in the country. In those games they still only managed to hold those teams to a combined 1 yard below their combined season averages.

In the other six games, all of BYU's opponents were in the top 50 in rushing O, and they went 2-4 in those games. The two wins came against Houston who only had six carries by RB's in that game, and against Middle Tenn. St. who beat one team with a winning record all year (they had six wins against teams who went 26-47). In going 0-4 against Boise St., Nevada, Utah St., and Memphis (29th, 36th, 38th and 49th respectively in rushing O) they gave up 4.03 YPC, .8 YPC more than the rest of their games. While Nebraska no longer has Abdullah, and we dont know what the new scheme will look like entirely, conventional wisdom would make you think Nebraska will stay close to their #17 ranked rushing O and they averaged 5.3 YPC. I think this will be a pretty dang close game, and in my opinion probably high scoring, but I think Nebraska runs all over BYU. Whether Nebraska can slow down Hill is another question entirely, and will likely determine the winner.

I can appreciate getting further inside the numbers. Generally, BYU defends the run well and I can give them a bit of a pass on some of that because when you lose your engine on offense, it also affects the defense. Actually, in 3 of those games (Nevada, Utah St, Memphis) you refer too, BYU held them to 3.5, 3.0 and 3.4 per carry, respectively. The outlier is Boise. But if you dive a bit deeper into that boatrace, you'd see that a third of Boise's rushing yards came on the last two possession while they were up 3 scores. Game was way over. BYU hadn't scored offensively since mid 2nd quarter. If you take that out, Boise averaged 4.2 a carry and was well under game average in rush yards. Add on UCF, while not great running, couldn't even average 2 yards a carry...and they tried 33 times. Also, consider that Ohio State and BYU both had the exact same number of plays in 2014. One played 15 games, the other 13. I hope NU can run all over BYU, I'm a bit more nervous than you.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

I can see Michigan losses to Utah away, Michigan State, Penn State away, and Ohio State. Potential losses are to BYU and Minnesota away. Over 7.5 is a poor wager. The Under may be a good wager depending on what the vig is. As usual, that was left out of the post. Ignoring the vig is how losers try to show themselves as winners.

 

[REDEYE]

I can see Michigan losses to Utah away, Michigan State, Penn State away, and Ohio State. Potential losses are to BYU and Minnesota away. Over 7.5 is a poor wager. The Under may be a good wager depending on what the vig is. As usual, that was left out of the post. Ignoring the vig is how losers try to show themselves as winners.

the vig has been fluctuating....Its been anywhere from +110 to -140.. it changed .25 yesterday at 5dimes

 

[BigdaddyQH]

the vig has been fluctuating....Its been anywhere from +110 to -140.. it changed .25 yesterday at 5dimes

So am I to assume that you have not made the wager yet? As far as 5dimes go, I was hoping that you would quote a book that was not as Mickey Mouse as them, but to each their own. Under + 110 would have worked, but that is gone.

 

[REDEYE]

So am I to assume that you have not made the wager yet? As far as 5dimes go, I was hoping that you would quote a book that was not as Mickey Mouse as them, but to each their own. Under + 110 would have worked, but that is gone.

I have made the wager.. I posted it in another thread...straight at -105 and 7 ML future parlays ranging from ev to -130

 

[BigdaddyQH]

I have made the wager.. I posted it in another thread...straight at -105 and 7 ML future parlays ranging from ev to -130

Well I do not particularly like Michigan, and I think Harbaugh is nothing more than a pompous arse who has never won anything in College Football, so I hope you win.

 

[AcesandFaces]

I think Michigan wins 9+ games this year. Defending the big house will be priority #1 for Harbaugh and staff. They win 5-6 home games and 3 or 4 road games IMHO. Utah better expect a war.

 

[GoSooners]

It's a tough bet because of the slew of guys that return to a defense that held their opponents to just 311 ypg. My main problem with Michigan is how they are going to muster up enough offense. The one thing we don't know is how much of an effect Harbaugh will have on these players in his first season. That's why this bet is a pass for me..

 

[loomis41973]

I HATE Michigan and would/and have take the over all day

 

[rickrock]

I agree with you, overall, but I have a different take on some of your probabilities. Where I differ most

@Utah 10% Utes might be most underrated team in country
Ore St 95% Gary Anderson took this job???
MSU 15% UM's lines might both get killed
Ohio St 10%
@ Penn St 30%

UM also lost their best OL, Miller, due to concussion concerns.

A great bet. You are right!