Someone please explain how the steam knows the future...

[dogs24]

This is by no means a scientific examination, but it SEEMS to me, after having placed thousands of bets in my day, that line changes just before game time OFTEN times -- far more often than might be reasonably expected if it were entirely random -- reflect the winner.

Just before gametime tonight, the line dropped precipitously on the Yanks...and the Yanks promptly got killed. That's just one example, but I seem to see it all the time...apparently, some large bets get placed just before time that skewer the line...and that movement often reflects the final winner. How the hell do these last second bettors know who will win?

Anyone else notice this, or am I dreaming?

 

[JohnnyDetroit+]

Not dreaming. I track and log all the scalps wagered and by year end, places like Pinnacle beat me to death and the square shops send me the letters about lowering limits, not allowing future bonuses or saying go away.

The next question and the same one I asked imyself is, if you follow these games are you going to beat the system? The chasing Pinnacle etc debate is something that comes up on all the forums from time to time. I am sure someone might argue the other side, but save yourself money and do not attempt to chase the steam during MLB. Over a two month span in bases I logged every scalp between Pinnacle and a few other sharp shops against the square shops. 1st I logged the scalp itself, meaning the true off line. Scalps usually do not last too long and some times it may be at a specific square shop. Than I logged the new line after the scalp passed. Adding everything up in bulk you see that the steam wins and betting these games you would be up money. Decent amount actually. But, if you take the number after the move and still try and bet the steam side after losing the value you all of a sudden you are down money. Even filtering different books in and out, favs, dogs, runlines, everything stayed pretty consistent. For example, May 6th Pinnacle vs 3 square places had 19 scalps. It was an off day for PINNY and getting the best value on the other side you would of dropped around 3.2 units. Taking the line "after" it moved you now lose over 3.75.

My suggestion is maybe send Shrink a nice birthday gift and try and get the picks before you seen the huge swing in the line

 

[THE SHRINK]

Not dreaming. I track and log all the scalps wagered and by year end, places like Pinnacle beat me to death and the square shops send me the letters about lowering limits, not allowing future bonuses or saying go away.

The next question and the same one I asked imyself is, if you follow these games are you going to beat the system? The chasing Pinnacle etc debate is something that comes up on all the forums from time to time. I am sure someone might argue the other side, but save yourself money and do not attempt to chase the steam during MLB. Over a two month span in bases I logged every scalp between Pinnacle and a few other sharp shops against the square shops. 1st I logged the scalp itself, meaning the true off line. Scalps usually do not last too long and some times it may be at a specific square shop. Than I logged the new line after the scalp passed. Adding everything up in bulk you see that the steam wins and betting these games you would be up money. Decent amount actually. But, if you take the number after the move and still try and bet the steam side after losing the value you all of a sudden you are down money. Even filtering different books in and out, favs, dogs, runlines, everything stayed pretty consistent. For example, May 6th Pinnacle vs 3 square places had 19 scalps. It was an off day for PINNY and getting the best value on the other side you would of dropped around 3.2 units. Taking the line "after" it moved you now lose over 3.75.

<b>My suggestion is maybe send Shrink a nice birthday gift and try and get the picks before you seen the huge swing in the line </b>

:lol:

Sorry Johnny but you of all people should know there is a better chance of it snowing in hell before that would ever happen...

THE SHRINK

 

[Aquatic]

Dogs24

You are right on last second steam. The moves on baseball totals that occur between say 7pm to 7:05 take down time get there very often. Late wind, scratches or a warm up report can trigger these as well as a late hold to get the best number when it's going the opposite direction all day.

 

[THE SHRINK]

Regarding LATE STEAM moves, unless you can bet the NUMBER before the change, I doubt seriously that anyone can show a long term profit...

THESHRINK

 

[JohnnyDetroit+]

shrink,

i agree 100%. before actually tracking the before/after lines i too was a person who thought chasing pinnacle would lead to a land of riches. but logging the two numbers and seeing where you stood at the end, the small value you lose per game adds up long term. going from +115 to +110 or +107 might not seem huge for that specific wage, but x's that by a few 100 bets and see what happens.

another part the pinnacle chasing theorists seem to forget is the infamous buy back. there are multiple times you will see a scalp one way, but 15 mins before the game goes a scalp pops with the sides switching over.

the worst part is when running the numbers and seeing the nice profit after tons of volume i was planning on upgrading my caddy. but than i ran where you would be after betting the realistic line you would have and realized back to the daily grind

 

[Santo]

Of course, if the exchanges move slower than the books.. ;-)

 

[THE SHRINK]

Johnny,

You are a very WISE man sir...

And a valued poster...

Thanks,
Ken

 

[Dante]

if all this steam stuff fails...you can always go to the REVERSE JINX..if you have Atlanta and they are down you can post in a separate thread.

" Atlanta sucks and they won't score a run all game!!!"


this has a higher percentage of working to get your team the W then paying tout's for picks at 79%:smoker2:

 

[JohnnyDetroit+]

thanks shrink.

one of my fav tales is when an advertiser of mine gave me a credit line. at this time i was getting some good CFB totals that were being put in FRI night. well the line line would always move a few points by game time as they were pretty solid. my cell rings and it is the sportsbook owner screaming at me that what am, like the f'ing shrink, taking his money for advertising than trying to bet steam into him. lol. to say the least, the credit line was short lived.

 

[jwblue]

I think late line moves have more to do with people getting their wagers in the last minute. Usually there is one side that the public will wager on causing the dramatic line move.

IS

 

[dogs24]

Pardon my lack of knowledge, but I'm not quite comprehending all the posts in this thread...


"Scalping" and "shaving"...the terminology used is beyond my understanding....

I'm talking about a simple concept...the line is what it is, with slight variations throughout the day...and then suddenly, in the last few minutes before gametime, there's a precipitous change in one direction or another. Unscientifically, those changes seem to point out the winner a great majority of the time.

I don't quite understand the point of betting before the line changes. Since the line movement often indicates the winner, you just have to take the team whose line just got worse and you're likely to win. Happened last night with the Red Sox and Heat just before game time...seems to happen virtually all the time. Granted, it's not going to win 100% of the time, so obviously you'd be better off if you can bet that side BEFORE the line got worse. But it seems to win such an enormous percentage of the time that even if you bet 'late' and got the worse line, waiting until you are 'told' who the winner will likely be more than compensates for a few cents heavier that you pay, no?

 

[JohnnyDetroit+]

dogs,


what i meant is you are seeing the MOVE once it hits. so if you follow it you are getting less value on the play. IE, last night, you bet the Red Sox. yes you get a nice win, but you lost a lot on the value of the line. losing that extra money long term is going to bust you up.

 

[Holysmoke+]

I can't figure Pinny's movement out.

Seems it moves wherever they want it to strictly balance the action to both sides.

Try your theory at halftime, holy chit, that would be a circus

 

[mj23]

Make sure you can tell the difference between BW and the Australien group!!

 

[cutacrossshorty]

I certainly can't explain how they know, but I try to follow the late dough alot. You can still grab the same value if your down at another book that hasn't made the change yet. Often my cousin will call me 20 minutes before the games start and ask who I like. My reply --> "I don't know yet".