somebody on here do me a favor please, gambling terms chance related

[gtc08]

heading out now, couldnt get this out of my head though.

what are the odds of someone hitting a 6 team parlay

 

[D2bets]

Assuming each side has a 50/50 chance of winning and not correlated, it's 2*2*2*2*2*2=64 to 1.

 

[gtc08]

alright. so mccain has a 64 to 1 shot to win the 6 battleground states that he needs to win to prevent obama from winning the election if all 6 of the battleground states were a dead heat.

now d2, what do you think the odds are with the rcp averages showing obama up 3-8 consistently in 5 out of those 6 states, including indiana with mccain up around 4?

 

[D2bets]

alright. so mccain has a 64 to 1 shot to win the 6 battleground states that he needs to win to prevent obama from winning the election if all 6 of the battleground states were a dead heat.

now d2, what do you think the odds are with the rcp averages showing obama up 3-8 consistently in 5 out of those 6 states, including indiana with mccain up around 4?

Assuming all of those polls are correct, then it's in the stratosphere. That said, obviously there is some correlation. But I've been saying for months that a McCain win is like hitting an 8-team parlay.

 

[eek.]

What were the chances of John McCain being the Repub nomination in October 2007?

What were the chances John McCain would survive his plane exploding on the deck of that US carrier?

What were the chances John McCain would survive being shot down smashed up and bayoneted in North Vietnam?

:grandmais

With John McCain it aint over until that fat lady sings.

 

[DarrylParsons]

OK here you go ...

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