Some useful info from last year

BigPete · Aug 14, 2004

Whats up all, time to get back into action, been sorting data today and found some decent info for you use

Teams whose sum of average points for + points against is less than 48 points, the under went 161-89

Teams whose sum of average points for + points against is more than 60, the over went 85-38

Teams who averaged more than 50 pass attempts per game (only 2 though), the over went 15-4

Teams that won by more than an average of 17 points, ATS was 74%

Teams that lost more than average of 17 points, ATS was 33%

Later

dellmonster · Aug 14, 2004

good stuff, I really like the picture...

BigDaddyNole · Aug 14, 2004

good to see ya back Pete ---- time for another great season of COLLEGE FOOTBALL!

a friend of mine sent me this info that he collected and I thought it was interesting and worth sharing with you folks:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>
BAD GAMES = GOOD MONEY
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What are bad games? A game featuring two bad teams. In the testing of the theory below, I used my ranking system, however, any ranking system should work (as long as all 1-A teams are ranked).

Disclaimer: While there may be some skepticisim over my rankings of top teams, I think you would agree that the bad teams will be at the bottom of any ranking system. Plus, we are only looking at whether a team is in the bottom 1/3 or not.

If you have a game between two teams in the bottom 1/3 of a ranking system, then bet:

(a) a Road Favorite of less than 7 points, or

(b) a Home Favorite of 7 or more points

Reasoning: if a home team is the dog, then they must be really bad to be a dog at home to another bad team...however, once you get 7 or more points, that's too many for a bad road team to overcome...meanwhile, a road dog is obviously a bad team, but at less than 7 points, the home team is not that good either...

Now, if you consider how the average (stupid) bettor thinks, they would think that the home dog should cover against a bad road team, unless the home team is a huge underdog, thus they really suck...and that the road dog must be worse, but against another bad team, they should cover at higher spreads...thus, my philosophy is contrary to the average (stupid) bettors thinking...

Testing on last year, I had 24 games in both group (a) and (b)...Group (a) games went 17-7 for the RF and Group (b) games went 16-8 for the HF...
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Soulman · Aug 14, 2004

Yeah, bring your happy a$$ down to the Orange Bowl for week one and watch the 6th win in a row. Tell Bowden to lay off smoking the cock, God if Jack Childress(FSCC grad, completely hacked the game up in G-ville)refs this game then I refuse to attend. FSCC is a second class university and if I were you I would change my name.

BigPete · Aug 15, 2004

Whats up BDN?!

Here was some info on money lines I posted last year:

Do you suck at capping

Then play the Moneylines versus the points and "you too can be a winner"(Richkas).

The following is my comparision of taking the points versus taking the moneyline.

CFB MLs since 2000 to week 7 2003, subject to human error:

Home Dog (+14to0)
ATS ( 228-236)= -29 units
ML (332 units won- 312 units lost)= +20 units

Home Dog (+12to0)
ATS (212-209)= -19 units
ML (280units won- 279lost)= 1 unit

Home Dog (+7to0)
ATS (136-147)= -24 units
ML (175 units won-174 units lost)= 1 unit

Home Dog (+3to0)
ATS (57-76) = -24 units
ML (68units-76units)= -8 units****Beware

Visiting Dog (+14to0)
ATS (383-352)= -4unit
ML (544-502)= 42 units****

Visiting Dog (+12to0)
ATS (329-305)= -6units
ML (462 units - 416 units)= 46 units****

Visiting Dog (+7to0)
ATS (195-189)= -12 units
ML (233 units-233 units)= even

Visiting Dog (+3to0)
ATS (76-72)= -3 units
ML (87units-77units)= 10 units

So it looks like visiting dogs between +7and+14 would be most profitable

BigPete · Aug 17, 2004

thanks to BobbyBlueChips from MJ's

"Overall Record for 40+ point favs (Last 8 Years) 21-45 31.81%"

BigDaddyNole · Aug 17, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Soulman:
Yeah, bring your happy a$$ down to the Orange Bowl for week one and watch the 6th win in a row. Tell Bowden to lay off smoking the cock, God if Jack Childress(FSCC grad, completely hacked the game up in G-ville)refs this game then I refuse to attend. FSCC is a second class university and if I were you I would change my name. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

WOW --- enter contestant #2 into the "I want to be abused by BDN this season" contest

Soulman · Aug 17, 2004

hey bubba... anytime you want to go head to head, I'm all for it! 5 games in college and 3 games in the pros. Whatever, doesn't matter to me what the format is. Was everything clear? Or should I have used smaller words and phrases?

BigDaddyNole · Aug 19, 2004

hey "soulman" --- are you new here? sorry, but I've never heard of you ... maybe when you rise above JV status I'll ackowledge you, smack you around like the bitch that you are and REALLY make it stick --- but at this point, since you're a wannabe, you're not even worth my time

when I see you listed in a top ten (or 30) of ANY contest around here, I might give you a chance ---- but as it stands, you're nothing more than a gnat that I'll CRUSH on my way to the $$$ window this year

PS) DUCK ... here comes the RAID!!!

SpaciousK · Aug 24, 2004

Hey, whassup, Pete.

Just stumbled in from my eight month long, non-football drinking binge. Now it's time to get back on track.

Great info here, as always, and here's to a big year.

jwunderdog · Aug 27, 2004

Pete, THanks for the ML #s have always thought the 7-14 point dogs on the ML was something to look for, nice to see #s to back it.GL this year

jwunderdog · Aug 27, 2004

I would love to see what the #s are in the first half of the season for the 7-14 point dogs winning out right are? I have a feeling they hit at even a higher % then the second half of the season.

BigPete · Aug 27, 2004

Whats up Spacious K, hope you come around more to College and help us poor boys out.

I have a feeling you will have a good year this year in Pro though.

JW I looked that up this morning and I believe it was somewhere around 35% for 2nd half and 30% for 1st half.

So you are correct sir. GL this year.

LUCKYLINZ · Aug 28, 2004

Big Pete, thanks for the research and information. It may be very helpful this year. Looking at your figures, it seems that if you took the visiting dogs from 0 to +3 and then from +71/2 to +12 that you would be up 46 units. It looks like you lose 4 units in the +13 to +14 and break even in the +3 to +7. Is that how you see it?

Also, I wasn't clear on betting the unders on teams with an average total per game of under 48. Would both teams competing have to have an average total of less than 48 or just one team?

Again, thanks a million--I love statistics like these!

panther · Aug 30, 2004

BigPete · Aug 31, 2004

"Also, I wasn't clear on betting the unders on teams with an average total per game of under 48. Would both teams competing have to have an average total of less than 48 or just one team?"

That was just for one team. I am not able to look at both teams and how the O/U faired as I dont have historical Totals for each game just records for each team. Im looking for historical totals if anyone has em let me know.

LL, I did the ML analysis over a year ago and lost that spreadsheet somewhere that calculated the units. But I believe your calculations are correct. There is a optimum point range it seems. I believe the best was 10-14, but Im not sure at this point. Tonight if I have time, I will try to recreate what I did last year to get more specific point ranges.

fivedoorsdown · Aug 31, 2004

bigpete. what do you think of the first week with 2 big dogs in the nfl???

you know one if not both lose outright to kill them suicide king of the hill pools

zip32 · Aug 31, 2004

Hey BigDaddy using you bottom 1/3 system I get Indiana -13 as a play. I think I'll just watch to see how it goes. Good luck to ya and thanks for the info.

BigPete · Aug 31, 2004

FiveDoors,
I have no opinion on those. NFL is much harder to find angles. Last year, I tried to find some ML angles but was unsuccessful. I usually ride coattails for NFL.