Smart betting

omgbokie · Feb 23, 2015

Hi,

a lot of threads here have nothing to do with betting, so I wanted to open a new one which actually is about betting and strategies involved.

I want to hear your betting strategies if you are willing to share.. ..tell you mine and maybe through that improve both.

(Just please don't talk about chase. If you simply must - just open a new thread and leave this one for the rest of us who are in a pursuit for something other than doubling till burst..)

I know that many believe that singles are only right way to go, but I have actually calculated that this is not always the case. (And by that I mean on real case scenarios, not just hypothetical models where somebody picks winners 100% of time thus being the one who should play parlay every time).

Once when we decide (calculate the most profitable way) which system (singles or whatever) will we go by, the story should end. We bet, and repeat..

But what happens before that was the picking of the team to bet on. This part is the first part of the equation. And this must be done with caution.

Today, there are just too many "loose bets" based on a hunch, without some real analysis (statistical and/or circumstantial).
I want to bet smart, to do my homework and then to do what's right.

I'd like to hear your thoughts..

shdw01 · Feb 23, 2015

I'm sorry, I still don't understand what your betting strategy is? to use real case parlay scenarios?

packer2012 · Feb 23, 2015

First of all..... thanks so much for recognizing that all forms of "CHASE" need to be avoided and then dismissed.

Now.... sorry to say...... but 99.9% of people have no idea how to win. They are really just addicted to this activity and lose and lose and lose as time goes by. Betting straight bets of the same small % of bankroll will NEVER work...... because the juice will kill you..... and, because it does not amount to enough winnings to satisfy even the post pathetic dullard. People can't win at sports betting consistently.

News flash....... if you do win...... you will be severely limited in your amounts...... or most likely banned.

So...... just have fun...... don't pay a tout and screw yourself to death before you even get started.

And..... if you fall in that tiny tiny subset of people who can win long term....... joy go with you...... but, don't think any off us with the slightest bit of brains don't realize....... that you are lipping full of shit and in fact DON'T you win.

shdw01 · Feb 23, 2015

packer2012 said:
Betting straight bets of the same small % of bankroll will NEVER work...... because the juice will kill you..... and, because it does not amount to enough winnings to satisfy even the post pathetic dullard. People can't win at sports betting consistently.

I don't understand what you are saying here. Are you saying we stagger our betting amounts?

isn't that the same thing? (i.e. if we do 1-5 unit betting, aren't all 1 units a flat amount, 2 units a flat amount, etc.?)

shdw01 · Feb 23, 2015

fwiw, I do not bet smart and i do not win

packer2012 · Feb 23, 2015

shdw01 said:
I don't understand what you are saying here. Are you saying we stagger our betting amounts?

isn't that the same thing? (i.e. if we do 1-5 unit betting, aren't all 1 units a flat amount, 2 units a flat amount, etc.?)

Referring to....... all bet are always in the same size. One unit all the time. Some (chickenshit players who are just spending time for recreation) claim that always playing the same unit size is the only way to win. Fact is.....it is the quickest and most certain way to let the juice kill you.

Fact REALLY is...... do it any way you want. You have such a microscopic possibility of winning anyway. What people are really trying to do.... some may recognize it....but most don't..... People are just striving to stay afloat long enough to play for a while...... just like a penny slot machine.

gijoe · Feb 23, 2015

I have of couple of strategies that work for me in college basketball:
1. 1st half- bet home team AGAINST TOP 25 RANK TEAM (ONLY IF HOME TEAM HUNG TOUGH WITH OTHER TOP TEAMS THEY HAVE PLAYED ( HAVE TO CHECK HALF TIME SCORES OF OTHER GAMES(DOGS COME OUT PUMPED)
2. PLAY UNDER IN GAMES OF TOP 25 TEAM DEFENSES IF OTHER TEAM GOT DECENT DEFENSE( KENTUCKY IS TEAM THAT IS A NO BET-STAY AYWAY

RoofTop · Feb 23, 2015

Always bet the #3 horse in the 3rd race on the 3rd Saturday in March

wilbur · Feb 23, 2015

RoofTop said:
Always bet the #3 horse in the 3rd race on the 3rd Saturday in March

To show?

RoofTop · Feb 23, 2015

wilbur said:
To show?

Of course

basesAREloaded · Feb 23, 2015

Hope this helps.

If you lay wood @ -101 or higher, unfortunately you turn to dogmeat.

-105 ain't no deal. Never was. Never will be.

Toss coins @ -101 for a week. Let me know how it goes.

God bless Vegas. Boards are full of -110s'. Now THAT'S funny.

PatsFan1283 · Feb 23, 2015

omg I don't mind your posts but just sell us what your trying to sell us and get it over with.

Bourn · Feb 23, 2015

basesAREloaded said:
Hope this helps.

If you lay wood @ -101 or higher, unfortunately you turn to dogmeat.

-105 ain't no deal. Never was. Never will be.

Toss coins @ -101 for a week. Let me know how it goes.

God bless Vegas. Boards are full of -110s'. Now THAT'S funny.

Sorry, but this is ridiculous

halekulani · Feb 23, 2015

flat betting is only good if you're in autopilot and are following a strict system. but even then, once you get a good system, why the fuck would u keep flat betting?

i would guess the majority of the bettors, including professional, do not flat bet 100% of the time. once you get a "system", everyone will try to optimize it by minimizing losses with small wagers and capitalizing on bigger ones. this isn't rocket science. i'm not sure why there is a thread on it.

shdw01 · Feb 23, 2015

If you have a good system, you should be flat betting the max amount (per your unit system)

Why bet less than the max if you are out to make money?

loomis41973 · Feb 23, 2015

The best bet is one never made.

basesAREloaded · Feb 24, 2015

Bourn said:
Sorry, but this is ridiculous

I forgive you Bourn, for your rude, uneducated reply. Not your fault. You're just part of the cattle. There are many cattle here who would second you. Herds of them.

Cattle get slaughtered.

Bourn · Feb 24, 2015

Lol. I'm a Cowboy

Bourn · Feb 24, 2015

Let me just say that if you are only playing dogs you are leaving tons of money on the table.

omgbokie · Feb 24, 2015

It's so nice that there are still people interested in this topic..

When i started with betting the first thing I did was betting 12 games with return around thousand times more than I invested..

Of course I missed five and got zero money back...

It was a lesson.. Next time I played seven singles and got five wins, but somehow I realized that a good way to go must be somewhere in the middle. I was a student of mathematics back then so it wasn't difficult, actually it was real fun calculating that "middle". I came up with the solution that I use even today. I won't bother you with details now.

In my opinion, only two things are necessary for a good bet.

1. Choosing a team to bet on only when there's some extra value in odds
2. Calculating optimum way to bet on the chosen teams.

Now, this second I mastered. (Calculated, mathematically and practically proved, & shared with others..)

There has been some problems with the first one. Not as much in recognizing a value bet, as it was in quantifying it. Statistical part did its purpose, but it was always like you tried to calculate balistic trajectory without air resistance.. nice curve which doesn't describe a true state.

Please don't start now with "math can never predict a winner..." - it can even predict probability of you wanting to say that..

..that is not an issue now. The problem is in recognizing something as important and putting a number behind that. So e.g. if a player has a new girlfriend it's +0.3% to a home team...
That is why I asked about your strategies. You say what works for you and I'll try to extract math from that strategy, if it seems prosperous. If any good comes from that, I'll make it public. I'm not trying to steal or to sell

I'm trying to help first to myself and then to others, as no one is my competition.. we are all vs bookies.. imo

So, share or not to share, that is not the question

The real question is: what works for you, how do you pick, what is important to you when analysing teams or whatever you consider as candidate to put money on?

Hope to hear some good ideas..