Small Dogs vs Moneyline?

[GLJJNOVA]

On Sat the Cowboys were a small Fav and I took the Texans ML(+147) and won. On Mon the Packers were 3/3.5 Fav and I took the Seahawks ML(+152) and won. I'm wondering if playing these MLs over the course of the season, would be enough to make up for the pushes and losses at +3.

BOL
GP

All opinions and info welcomed!

 

[oldmanTED]

In games involving small favorites, ie., 3 points or less, a high percentage of the time the spread does not enter into the final decision. Either the favorite wins and covers or the dog wins outright. Thus, playing ML dogs which have a fundamental opportunity to win the game outright can be profitable. However, playing small ML dogs blindly will not in and of itself lead to a profit. While one would continuously save the vig, it doesn't necessarily equate that enough small dogs will win outright to overcome the number of small favorites that win and cover. Better to be selective and should you find small dogs that are live throughout the season, then consider consistenty playing the ML in those spots. Just my opinion. Best of luck this football season.

 

[GLJJNOVA]

Thanks Ted! BOL this season. I'm gonna try it this year when I like a Dog getting 3 or less.

GL
GP

 

[ElIguana]

Good observations, Gary_Philly. I would add to Ted's advice to pick your dogs carefully. The Texans covered as home dogs for me very well last season....I didn't bet them blindly, but looked at each week's matchup. The Cardinals did the same. Depends on match-ups, home vs. road, what each team did the week before, turf vs. grass, etc. Some of those "loser" teams (.500 or poorer record) can be some good moneymakers for you, because they will continue to get points at home even though they are not a horrible team. GL

 

[sherwood]

I've been playing money line dogs for years and your really going with the best of it when you do. For example, in the two games that you mentioned, you gained 57 cents on each dollar (+1.47 as opposed to -1.10) and in the other game you gained 52 cents. Multiply that over an entire season and the losses that you suffer because of the dog covering but not winning will not outweigh the gain. I especially like these plays at home in pro and college. Additionally Gary, don't be afraid to play the money line on home dogs as high as six points. You'll usually get odds of 2-1 or better and remember 6 points is just one lousy TD meaning the oddsmakers are giving the dog a helluva shot. Check out on Monday morning the favorites that won but did not cover. A very small percentage win but don't cover. A high percentage of dogs that cover win the game outright.

Historically, the pointspread matters in the NFL only about 15% to 18% of the time. That is, between 82% and 85 % of the time the team that wins the game also covers the pointspread. Either the Favorite wins and covers, or the Underdog pulls off the upset and wins straight up. That 15% to 18% figure refers to those times when the Favorite wins but by less than the pointspread. As a result, if you handicap the game by looking at which team is most likely to win the game, you'll also cover the pointspread roughly five times in six. This isn't just one season either. The 82-85% that I've mentioned has occured in over 3700 games since 1988.

Yeah, you'll lose a few because of it but over the long haul, it's far more beneficial to play the money line.

Good luck friend.

 

[GLJJNOVA]

Great insights Sherwood! I think I need to add Dog Moneylines to my arsenal to take my capping to the next level. I will be selective with it, of course, but it makes great sense.

Thanks and Have a great year
GP