Should we jump on now? Chase LAL, BOS?

[yanni_gogolak]

i dont know that i have seen a single team chase ats system. i guess it wouldnt be system, just plays. anyone familiar with the success of this? i know books adjust year to year so that is where the success would be a factor. looking at last year and the start of this year BOS and LAL would be great teams to do a ats chase. this is just an initial thought. also think HOU would be a great team too.

below are the final ats rankings from 07-08
<table class="data" style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="1" bordercolor="#111111" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr class="datahead"><td bgcolor="#e1e1ce"> </td> <td bgcolor="#e1e1ce">Team</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#e1e1ce">ATS</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#e1e1ce">W/L</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#e1e1ce">O/U</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#e1e1ce">For</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#e1e1ce">Agst.</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#e1e1ce">Marg.</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2" bgcolor="#ecece4">1</td> <td class="datahl2" bgcolor="#ecece4"> Boston </td> <td class="datacell" align="center">52-28-2</td> <td class="datacell" align="center">66-16</td> <td class="datacell" align="center">36-45</td> <td class="datacell" align="center">100.5</td> <td class="datacell" align="center">90.3</td> <td class="datacell" align="center">10.3</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2" bgcolor="#ecece4">2</td> <td class="datahl2" bgcolor="#ecece4"> Orlando </td> <td class="datacell" align="center">50-29-3</td> <td class="datacell" align="center">52-30</td> <td class="datacell" align="center">36-44</td> <td class="datacell" align="center">104.5</td> <td class="datacell" align="center">99.0</td> <td class="datacell" align="center">5.5</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2" bgcolor="#ecece4">3</td> <td class="datahl2" bgcolor="#ecece4"> New Orleans </td> <td class="datacell" align="center">50-30-2</td> <td class="datacell" align="center">56-26</td> <td class="datacell" align="center">39-41</td> <td class="datacell" align="center">100.7</td> <td class="datacell" align="center">95.4</td> <td class="datacell" align="center">5.3</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2" bgcolor="#ecece4">4</td> <td class="datahl2" bgcolor="#ecece4"> Houston </td> <td class="datacell" align="center">47-33-2</td> <td class="datacell" align="center">55-27</td> <td class="datacell" align="center">35-46</td> <td class="datacell" align="center">96.7</td> <td class="datacell" align="center">92.0</td> <td class="datacell" align="center">4.7</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2" bgcolor="#ecece4">5</td> <td class="datahl2" bgcolor="#ecece4"> L.A. Lakers </td> <td class="datacell" align="center">47-33-1</td> <td class="datacell" align="center">57-25</td> <td class="datacell" align="center">40-41</td> <td class="datacell" align="center">108.6</td> <td class="datacell" align="center">101.3</td> <td class="datacell" align="center">7.3</td></tr></tbody></table>

looking back to the 02-03 season here is how the top 5 ats teams ranked:
http://www.coachescorner.com/n_input/nnweb/scores/header_nba_ats_rankings.htm

07-08
1. BOS
2. ORL
3. NO
4. HOU
5. LAL

06-07
1. TOR
2. NO
3. DEN
4. PHO
5. GS

05-06
1. CHAR
2. CLE
3. TOR
4. ORL
5. PHX

04-05
1. CHI
2. SA
3. DEN
4. HOU
5. MIA

03-04
1. MIA
2. IND
3. SA
4. DET
5. GS

02-03
1. IND
2. MIA
3. SA
4. GS
5. UT

as far as overlapping teams from in a 2 year span we have:
02-03: MIA, SA, GS
03-04: MIA, SA
04-05: NONE
05-06: TOR
06-07: NO

what does this tell us? it tells me that in the '05 season there was a changing of top teams basically. (top ats teams). but what is intriguing is MIA and SA overlapping 3 seasons in the top 5. these were great teams, not bad teams that were covering with a lot of points. i think the current season we have that with LAL, BOS, and HOU. the only problem is that in the span studied there were only two back to back seasons where 3 teams were in the top 5 ats, the 02-03, and 03-04 seasons.

any thoughts?

 

[yanni_gogolak]

no opinions?

 

[HighFlyinKilla]

no opinions?

I was looking at that too. If you bet the top teams ats the spread everynight you'll hit a pretty good percentage. The lines try to scare you away. Then when you see the final score sure enough they cover again.

 

[yanni_gogolak]

i will start tracking this system tonight.

07-08 season ats loss, longest span:

BOS, 4 games without win, push followed by 3 ats losses
2.13.08 - 2.22.08

LAL, 5 games
3.26.08 - 4.04.08

HOU, 5 games twice, both times 2 losses, push, 2 losses
12.09.07 -12.19.07, 3.22.08 - 4.01.08

i will use a 6 game chase. if the team does not cover in that span it will be considered a loss. each chase start will be one unit. following a loss the units will double the bet before. when teams play each other there will be a play on each for the appropriate unit of each teams chase.

 

[yanni_gogolak]

First Play

HOU chase:
1. HOU -5 -110

 

[HighFlyinKilla]

I think the Hawks will have a pretty good ats record this year.

 

[DeezNuts]

are you still tracking this? How is it going? I agree on Atlanta, they are better than most people will give them credit for and could be good value in them for a lot of the season.

 

[yanni_gogolak]

are you still tracking this? How is it going? I agree on Atlanta, they are better than most people will give them credit for and could be good value in them for a lot of the season.

ha, no i didnt b/c no one seemed interested.

 

[yanni_gogolak]

here is what we have so far:
houston:

1. @POR L 99-101 (OT) L -5
2. @LAC W 92-83 W -6
end chase

1. 11/07/08 @LAC W 92-83 W -6
end chase

1. @LAL L 82-111 L 7 LOSS
2. @PHO W 94-82 W 3.5
end chase

1. @SA pending -6



los angeles lakers:

1. HOU W 111-82 W -7
end chase

1. @DAL W 106-99 W -5.5
end chase

1. @NO W 93-86 W 1.5
end chase

1. DET pending -9.5



boston:

1. MIL W 101-89 L -14
2. @DET W 88-76 W 1
end chase

1. TOR W 94-87 L -8.5
2. ATL W 103-102 L -10.5
3. DEN pending -10


atlanta:

1. TOR W 110-92 W -2
end chase

1. @OKC W 89-85 L -4.5
2. @CHI W 113-108 W 4
end chase

1. @BOS L 102-103 W 10.5
end chase

1. @NJ pending -3.5



so far the chase record is 10-0. the current BOS chase scares me b/c i dont think they cover tonight. this is where money management really starts to play into this system. i said it would be a 6 game chase though so i dont think they will go that long w/o a cover.

 

[yanni_gogolak]

PLAYS FOR NOV. 13

1. ATL -4
1. LAL -9.5
1. HOU -5.5
3. BOS -9.5

the number in front of the play represents what game # we are on the current chase and you unit multiplier

 

[miamiboy86]

i think there could be some real potential in this system, especially with the 4 teams involved... that said, I think the main problem with this is that 2 of the 4 teams (LAL and Bos) are going to constantly be put at higher spreads to cover than the statistics indicate as they are mainstream teams (people will put them to cover regardless of the number within reason)

 

[yanni_gogolak]

i think there could be some real potential in this system, especially with the 4 teams involved... that said, I think the main problem with this is that 2 of the 4 teams (LAL and Bos) are going to constantly be put at higher spreads to cover than the statistics indicate as they are mainstream teams (people will put them to cover regardless of the number within reason)

yes, that is the problem, but that is what the chase eliminates. bos might not cover 12 vs a crap team, but they cover the 2 vs a good team. currently the lakers avg. 18 pt margin, atl 7.9, bos 6.0, hou 2.4. i dont think the celts will cover huge spreads like they did last year, but this will even itself out over the course of the year.

 

[Smallplayer]

I am going to ride LAL until they prove me wrong. I am 3-0 so far with the LAL. Another good team to watch would be the Warriors except fade them. I am a big fan and from the bay area and they are awful, they won't beat anyone. I am 3-0 as well fading the Warriors. Sorry I don't document my picks.

 

[yanni_gogolak]

I am going to ride LAL until they prove me wrong. I am 3-0 so far with the LAL. Another good team to watch would be the Warriors except fade them. I am a big fan and from the bay area and they are awful, they won't beat anyone. I am 3-0 as well fading the Warriors. Sorry I don't document my picks.

not a bad idea with GS, they were 3rd worst in the league last year
<table class="data" style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="1" bordercolor="#111111" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="datahl2" bgcolor="#ecece4">28</td> <td class="datahl2" bgcolor="#ecece4"> Golden State </td> <td class="datacell" align="center">34-48-0</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[SDubb]

Jump on now?

I've been on since Oct. 28:money8:

 

[yanni_gogolak]

Jump on now?

I've been on since Oct. 28:money8:

yea, me too, actually i have been on all the winners this year, in the whole nba

 

[DeezNuts]

tough night with all 4 losing, but I suppose there will be days like that.

 

[HighFlyinKilla]

You definately need need to add the Nuggets to that list. They have been one of the best teams ats the past few years and lead the leauge at 7-2.

 

[yanni_gogolak]

You definately need need to add the Nuggets to that list. They have been one of the best teams ats the past few years and lead the leauge at 7-2.

chauncy has definitely given them what they lacked in a pg who can control pace.

as far as the last few years, if u want to get technical with few (3) and couple (2), the last couple have been good:

07-08
<table class="data" style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="1" bordercolor="#111111" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="datahl2" bgcolor="#ecece4">11</td> <td class="datahl2" bgcolor="#ecece4"> Denver </td> <td class="datacell" align="center">44-38-0</td></tr></tbody></table>
06-07
<table class="data" style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="1" bordercolor="#111111" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="datahl2" bgcolor="#ecece4">3</td> <td class="datahl2" bgcolor="#ecece4"> Denver </td> <td class="datacell" align="center">45-36-1</td></tr></tbody></table>
05-06
<table class="data" style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="1" bordercolor="#111111" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="datahl2" bgcolor="#ecece4">19</td> <td class="datahl2" bgcolor="#ecece4">DEN</td> <td class="datacell" align="center">42-45-0</td></tr></tbody></table>

could we add denver? sure. lets remember what the original goal of this was. since we started a couple weeks into the season we want to try and find the top ats teams. top 5 or so. why? well the case for denver for instance. they are great right now, but say they only end up 5 games above .500 ATS. playing in them in this system we would lose money. the later in the season we add a team the less likely it is to be successful. i can add them to the tracking, but just keep this in mind.

 

[yanni_gogolak]

didnt have time to post on sat but the plays would have been:

2. ATL -9.5
2. HOU -2
4. BOS -9

outcome:
2. ATL -9.5 LOSS
2. HOU -2 WIN.
4. BOS -9 LOSS

pending chase:
2. LAL
3. ATL
5. BOS

current chase record. 11-0

boston has put themselves (and us) in a tough spot as they are in game 5 of a 6 game chase. i dont think it looks much better as they will most likely be giving a lot of points to a dangerous NYK team.

MON. NOV 17

1. HOU -9