Should I try to middle tonight's game?

[Celebdawg]

What's your opinion on trying for a middle in nfl games? I took the Cards early Monday morning at -6.5 (-115) and now I can get the Vikings +10.5(-115) from my local. Personally I think this game gets out of hand because bridgewater can't throw the ball 10 yards downfield and the cards D will stack the line neutralizing A.P. But 4.5 points in a fairly large middle opportunity.

Opinions?


thanks in advance

 

[JackStraw420]

Yes. Maybe not for your entire wager, but I would probably roll the dice for some of it. Got two key numbers in there (7 and 10) too.

Line keeps climbing, hold out and maybe you can get +13!!!

 

[billbeater]

If you had a Large amount of money bet on ARZ -6.5 just because you knew it would rise or it was a great number;
then I would say to go for the middle with some or all of that wager.
But if you Love the game bet of ARZ -6.5 handicapped fully, just stick with it and hope it wins.
GL
I think that difference is what should dictate when to try a middle....
:toast:

 

[HotRocks]

+11.5 -118 at 5D now

 

[JackStraw420]

If you had a Large amount of money bet on ARZ -6.5 just because you knew it would rise or it was a great number;
then I would say to go for the middle with some or all of that wager.
But if you Love the game bet of ARZ -6.5 handicapped fully, just stick with it and hope it wins.
GL
I think that difference is what should dictate when to try a middle....
:toast:

I agree with this, and wish I had an Arizona -6.5 ticket right now. And if it was only +7.5 now, might pass on that middle, but this is a considerable move with a much wider gap than normal, and crossing two of the top three key numbers.

 

[sdf]

dont hedge

 

[justanobserver]

I have a -7, waiting to see +13 or more before i go for it.

 

[3pointdog]

points wont matter (wont come into play) AZ blowout... 38-10

 

[TheComputerGroup]

I have a -7, waiting to see +13 or more before i go for it.

You won't see +13......the best you will see is maybe +11.5........right now it dropped back down to +10.5 or +10

 

[TomandJerry]

why hedging if you have the best line? ..........if it's not middle, you lose the juice. Gambling and you got the advantage (line)

 

[TheComputerGroup]

As for middling this game, the spread won't cone into play IMO.......but the only middling I would do is if I had Cards ML parlay with like Chiefs ML.......& then take Vikings +11......but like I said, the spread won't come into play IMO......

 

[JackStraw420]

why hedging if you have the best line? ..........if it's not middle, you lose the juice. Gambling and you got the advantage (line)

It's 100% a middle, NOT a hedge.

 

[Kaveman]

Ideal spot for it, crossing two key numbers. Things may point to an AZ blowout, but the way upsets are raining down lately it's worth a shot.

 

[Mosi]

With missed extra points key numbers' importance have changed slightly. With that said 7 and 10 continue to be key (behind 3), and 8 and 9 are perhaps more prevalent (moving off of 7 and 9 mostly).

So for a pure middle -6- and +10- it looks nice.

Info below provided by SportsInsights January 2015 (Before the season of the missed Extra Point/2015)
Why are Key Numbers so Important in NFL Betting?


Because NFL teams most often score in multiples of 3 (field goals) and 7 (touchdowns + extra points), getting on or off these key numbers can have a significant effect on your winning percentage and units won.

For example, since 2003 there have been 2,670 NFL games played (including both regular and postseason games). 411 of these games (or 18.69%) have ended with a margin of victory of 3 points.

In games where the favorite won by 3, sharp NFL bettors who shopped for the best line to lay -2.5 or take the +3.5 turned potential pushes into wins.
As a result, we calculated the margin of victory for every NFL game since 2003 and the table below displays these results.
Show 102550100 entries
Search:

MARGIN OF VICTORY	# OF GAMES	% OF TOTAL GAMES
3	479	18.69%
7	294	11.47%
10	196	7.65%
6	176	6.87%
4	171	6.67%
14	153	5.97%
1	119	4.64%
2	117	4.56%
17	108	4.21%
8	104	4.06%

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As you can see, over 30% of games we analyzed finished with a 3-point or 7-point margin of victory, showing exactly why sharp bettors consider these to be “key numbers”.

While these margins are for all spreads, we delved in deeper to look at closing odds of +2.5, +3, and +3.5 to discover how many of those games landed exactly on a final margin of 3.

 

[Alpine]

By all means dutch it for at least 3/4 your original bet.
You have magic numbers to hit 7 and 10.
This is a must middle.

 

[MoneyMiller]

crossing two keys, absolutely hedge that. no question

 

[HookEmHorns]

I think you have a winner with the -6.5

 

[Mosi]

I think you have a winner with the -6.5

Did not put that in my original post, but I agree -6- seems very juicy.

 

[HookEmHorns]

Did not put that in my original post, but I agree -6- seems very juicy.

I see where you're coming from...between 6-10 is a great spot for a middle too. I just think the Cards should dominate tonight due to Minn injuries on D. However, I wouldn't be surprised though if it lands on less than 10...and very possible if Ari has a big lead with a last minute garbage TD. That's always a consideration

GL tonight!

 

[JoeFalls]

that's a nice middle. you could only lose juice. could hit 2 bets.