Updated post - ACC closed yesterday at 20.16, down 1.34 or 6.2% since the first post, it is, however, up today with everything else.
The Fugly Contest
<small>February 6th, 2009 <!-- by Richard --></small> I found this Yahoo comparison between American Campus Communities (ACC) and Education Realty Trust (EDR). While they are both hideous trolls with bad personalities, one is worse than the other.
EDR is overpriced and trades at about $4 per share. Also, keep in mind that EDR has less than ¾ the number of shares outstanding as ACC.
CLICK TO ENLARGE
Who is the winner? You need to look at their figures. Who is more proportional? Don’t be fooled by the
Bootstrappin.
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ACC’s Dividend - Part II
<small>February 6th, 2009 <!-- by Richard --></small>
[FONT="]American Campus Communities (ACC) kept its quarterly dividend unchanged at $.3375 per share. I was hoping for a cut in the dividend for two reasons. First, I think that the stock would have immediately tanked, which would have made me lots of $ fast. Second, a cut would have given me a very accurate basis to predict the Q4 & annual earnings. Since ACC did not cut the dividend, I can only provide a low end earnings floor.[/FONT]
[FONT="]I can predict an earnings floor based upon ACC’s debt covenants. You may recall that in my previous post regarding ACC dividend, I posted the following portion of a credit agreement pertaining to dividend coverage:[/FONT]
[FONT="]“2. Modification of the Loan Agreement. Borrower, the Lenders and Administrative Agent do hereby modify and amend the Loan Agreement as follows:
(a) By deleting subsection (i) of Section 5.02(g) of the Loan Agreement in its entirety and inserting in lieu thereof the following: “(i) no Default or Event of Default shall have occurred and be continuing at the time of declaration or payment thereof and the aggregate amount of such Cash dividends or distributions, together with the aggregate amount of Cash dividends or distributions made during the applicable period pursuant to the immediately following clause (ii), (A) do not exceed 115% of Funds From Operations for the current four fiscal quarter periods of Parent Guarantor ending September 30, 2008 and December 31, 2008, (B) do not exceed 110% of Funds From Operations for the current four fiscal quarter period of Parent Guarantor ending March 31, 2009, (C) do not exceed 100% of Funds from Operations during any other four consecutive fiscal quarters of the Parent Guarantor thereafter, and (D) do not exceed 100% of Funds From Operations during any one fiscal quarter for the fiscal quarters of the Parent Guarantor ending on December 31, 2008 and March 31, 2009,”[/FONT]
[FONT="]The purpose of a covenant like this is to prevent ACC liquidating too much of the company in the form of dividends to common shareholders. Remember, common shareholders are subsequent to lenders in bankruptcy so lenders concerned that ACC might try and distribute cash to the common shareholders than could be used to pay the lenders back. Although the premise is good, the metric should have been based on cash flow and earnings since FFO is a poor metric in a down real estate market. Using earnings or cash flow would have helped them keep a tighter leash on ACC. The banks weren’t so smart. [/FONT]
[FONT="]Anyhow, the above debt covenant can be expressed as a set of equations. If we know the numbers for certain variables, we can solve for others. Here are the variables I will use:[/FONT]
<table class="MsoNormalTable" style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody> <tr style=""> <td style="border: 1pt solid black; padding: 0in 5.4pt; background: rgb(238, 236, 225) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; width: 48.95pt;" valign="top" width="65">
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: black black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: 1pt 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; background: rgb(238, 236, 225) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; width: 104.95pt;" valign="top" width="140">
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: black black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: 1pt 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; background: rgb(238, 236, 225) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; width: 1.5in;" colspan="2" valign="top" width="144">
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.95pt; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="65">
D₁ =
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 104.95pt; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="140">
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.5in; background-color: transparent;" colspan="2" valign="top" width="144">
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.95pt; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="65">
D₂ =
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 104.95pt; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="140">
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.5in; background-color: transparent;" colspan="2" valign="top" width="144">
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.95pt; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="65">
D₃ =
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 104.95pt; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="140">
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.5in; background-color: transparent;" colspan="2" valign="top" width="144">
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.95pt; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="65">
D₄ =
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 104.95pt; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="140">
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.5in; background-color: transparent;" colspan="2" valign="top" width="144">
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.95pt; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="65">
D₅ =
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 104.95pt; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="140">
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.5in; background-color: transparent;" colspan="2" valign="top" width="144">
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.95pt; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="65">
D₆ =
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 104.95pt; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="140">
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.5in; background-color: transparent;" colspan="2" valign="top" width="144">
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; background: rgb(238, 236, 225) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; width: 48.95pt;" valign="top" width="65">
Variable
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; background: rgb(238, 236, 225) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; width: 106.15pt;" colspan="2" valign="top" width="142">
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; background: rgb(238, 236, 225) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; width: 106.8pt;" valign="top" width="142">
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.95pt; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="65">
F₁ =
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 106.15pt; background-color: transparent;" colspan="2" valign="top" width="142">
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 106.8pt; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="142">
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.95pt; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="65">
F₂ =
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 106.15pt; background-color: transparent;" colspan="2" valign="top" width="142">
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 106.8pt; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="142">
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.95pt; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="65">
F₃ =
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 106.15pt; background-color: transparent;" colspan="2" valign="top" width="142">
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 106.8pt; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="142">
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.95pt; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="65">
F₄ =
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 106.15pt; background-color: transparent;" colspan="2" valign="top" width="142">
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 106.8pt; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="142">
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.95pt; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="65">
F₅ =
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 106.15pt; background-color: transparent;" colspan="2" valign="top" width="142">
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 106.8pt; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="142">
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.95pt; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="65">
F₆ =
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 106.15pt; background-color: transparent;" colspan="2" valign="top" width="142">
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 106.8pt; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="142">
</td> </tr> <tr height="0"> <td style="border: medium none rgb(240, 240, 240); background-color: transparent;" width="87"> </td> <td style="border: medium none rgb(240, 240, 240); background-color: transparent;" width="140"> </td> <td style="border: medium none rgb(240, 240, 240); background-color: transparent;" width="2"> </td> <td style="border: medium none rgb(240, 240, 240); background-color: transparent;" width="142"> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
[FONT="]From these variables, I can construct a set of equations to represent the Debt covenants. After all, the debt covenants are just mathematic rules to constrain Dividends with respect to FFO. In particular, I am concerned with figuring out Q4 FFO, so:[/FONT]
<table class="MsoNormalTable" style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody> <tr style=""> <td style="border: 1pt solid black; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 6.65in; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="638">
[FONT="]“[/FONT][FONT="]Cash dividends…do not exceed 115% of Funds From Operations [/FONT][FONT="]for the current [/FONT][FONT="]four fiscal quarter periods[/FONT][FONT="] of Parent Guarantor ending September 30, 2008 and [/FONT][FONT="]December 31, 2008[/FONT][FONT="]“[/FONT]
[FONT="] [/FONT]
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 6.65in; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="638">
[FONT="]The rule, as applied to the four quarters ending December 31 (Q4 2008) can be expressed as:[/FONT]
[FONT="] [/FONT]
[FONT="]D₂ + D₃ + D₄ + D₅ ≤ 1.15 (F₂ + F₃ + F₄ + F₅) [/FONT]
[FONT="] [/FONT]
[FONT="]Or, using distributive property, as:[/FONT]
[FONT="] [/FONT]
[FONT="]D₂ + D₃ + D₄ + D₅ ≤ 1.15F₂ + 1.15F₃ + 1.15F₄ + 1.15F₅[/FONT]
[FONT="] [/FONT]
[FONT="]We can solve for F₂ such that:[/FONT]
[FONT="] [/FONT]
[FONT="]D₂ + D₃ + D₄ + D₅ - 1.15F₃ - 1.15F₄ - 1.15F₅ ≤ 1.15F₂ or restated:[/FONT]
[FONT="] [/FONT]
[FONT="]F₂ ≥ (D₂ + D₃ + D₄ + D₅ - 1.15F₃ - 1.15F₄ - 1.15F₅) ÷ 1.15[/FONT]
[FONT="] [/FONT]
[FONT="]If we plug-in the constants that we know (or can reasonably approximate), we get:[/FONT]
[FONT="] [/FONT]
[FONT="]F₂ ≥ [$[/FONT]14,276,250 + $14,403,000 + $12,517,000 + $9,334,000 – (1.15 × $6,372,000) – (1.15 × $10,589,000) – (1.15 × $11,207,000)] ÷ 1.15
[FONT="] [/FONT]
[FONT="]F₂ ≥ [$[/FONT]14,276,250 + $14,403,000 + $12,517,000 + $9,334,000 – $7,327,800 - $12,177,350 - $12,888,050] ÷ 1.15
[FONT="] [/FONT]
[FONT="]F₂ ≥ [$18,137,050 ÷ 1.15] or [/FONT][FONT="]F₂ ≥ $15,771,347[/FONT][FONT="] [/FONT]
[FONT="] [/FONT]
</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
[FONT="]This tells us that we can expect FFO to be greater than or equal to $15,771,347 for Q4. I was really hoping that ACC would have to cut the dividend so I could derive an accurate FFO expectation. Since I know that the last thing they want to do is lower their dividend and tank the stock, I think it’s a fair assumption that they will cut it only to stay in compliance with their debt covenants. [/FONT]
[FONT="]It is possible that ACC reports an FFO number that is lower than this. In that case, ACC has either: (1) violated its debt covenants, or (2) amended its debt covenants to allow for additional dividends. I think either of these scenarios is unlikely given the state of credit. Then again, we know the banks aren’t geniuses so anything is possible.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Since the FFO number is bolstered by about $18M in depreciation charges, I can’t tell you that ACC did not have a negative quarter. All I can tell you is that it likely did not lose more than $3M in the quarter.[/FONT]
[FONT="]To be honest, I performed this analysis primarily as a personal exercise. When they cut the dividend in the future, I will be able to forecast an earnings ceiling. It is not a matter of if; it is a matter of when.[/FONT]
[FONT="]How Does This Affect ACC’s Stock Price?[/FONT]
[FONT="]If ACC cut the dividend, I think the stock would have already been murdered. While I expected heavy volume on the first trading day after the dividend was cut, volume was actually very light. Daily volume slipped to 600k and average volume is 820k. That tells me that there is a lack of buyers. [/FONT]
[FONT="]Everyone is trying to abandon the sinking ship but lifeboats are scarce. In this case, women and children are last and the crew gets out first. The crew has been enjoying this POSH cruise and knows the sink and stink are inevitable. Party it up with dividends, Baby! Get me’ all drunk while we slip away. I know the deal: CHURN, CHURN, CHURN, then BURN BABY BURN![/FONT]