Short Opportunity - ACC, PLD

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Woah, woah, Daddy's wrong, Mommy's right.
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Long story short, a buddy of mine has been really digging into some stocks and REITs of late looking for good opportunities to short these companies. Financing is BRUTAL in real estate and he has been pretty successful already. Late last year he shorted Prologis (PLD) from about $45 or $50 down to under $5 and made a small fortune on it. He now thinks another company, ACC, will have a similar fall.

Anyway, he has a blog and has been getting some press from other unaffiliated blogs and financial websites b/c of his call on PLD. He may also have an article coming up in the WSJ.

Everything he called on PLD is documented on his blog if you are interested and his analysis of ACC. He has a couple of others he thinks may be in for a drop as well. He has already made me some money and I am in ACC puts myself. Pretty interesting and he has been very successful lately.

http://www.stripnomics.com/
 

Oh boy!
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Long story short, a buddy of mine has been really digging into some stocks and REITs of late looking for good opportunities to short these companies. Financing is BRUTAL in real estate and he has been pretty successful already. Late last year he shorted Prologis (PLD) from about $45 or $50 down to under $5 and made a small fortune on it. He now thinks another company, ACC, will have a similar fall.

Anyway, he has a blog and has been getting some press from other unaffiliated blogs and financial websites b/c of his call on PLD. He may also have an article coming up in the WSJ.

Everything he called on PLD is documented on his blog if you are interested and his analysis of ACC. He has a couple of others he thinks may be in for a drop as well. He has already made me some money and I am in ACC puts myself. Pretty interesting and he has been very successful lately.

http://www.stripnomics.com/

Thanks for the tip.

:toast:

My brother has been in the financial industry for over 10 years. He owns his own company. I talked to him this Christmas about the best investing opportunities. He said the next big decline will be in real estate, especially commercial real estate.

I was all tied up in FAZ and DGP at the time so I didn't invest in SRS (ultrashort real estate). I believe my next free cash will go to buying some of that. It was above 250 last November. However, it went down to 50 recently and now is at 59.

Time to buy some SRS!
 

Woah, woah, Daddy's wrong, Mommy's right.
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When I first posted this ACC was at 21.5, just for reference purposes.

My buddy posted some further analysis on why he thinks this is going to drop. Cut and paste of it is below. You can also check it out at www.stripnomics.com.

Insider Sales & Buys @ ACC

<small>January 20th, 2009 <!-- by Richard --></small> Here is a screengrab of insider sales and purchases at ACC:


acc-insiders1.jpg


Personally, I elect to give the most weight to CEO Bayless’ recent sale. At $1.2M it is easily the largest transaction. Further, since it was conducted by the leader of the company, I have to question why he is unloading the company that he leads. What does he know? Is this sale consistent with the optimism and “bullishness” that he expressed in the last conference call? I think not.
It should also be noted that there were purchases last year that barely broke $100k. Interpret this data as you will. I think it rises to the level of irrelevance. The purchases are convenient. I don’t believe. I’m still watching the big dog. Always follow the big dogs. Big dogs lead the crowd.
What’s the matter with the crowd I’m seeing?
Don’t you know that they’re out of touch?
Should I try to be a straight ‘A’ student?
If you are then you think too much.
- BILLY JOEL

Posted in Accounting, American Campus Comunities (ACC), Body Language, Leadership, Trading | No Comments »
ACC’s Dividend - Part I

<small>January 20th, 2009 <!-- by Richard --></small> ACC pays a handsome dividend in comparison with its earnings… a bit too handsome. It is Suspect.
Since ACC is a REIT, many will assume that it pays its dividend strictly in compliance with the requirement that REITs pay 90% of taxable income to shareholders. I do not think that is the case. I think the dividend is OVERPAID. (You can read about the tax requirements at NAREIT.)
Here is a screen grab showing ACC’s dividend and the yield as of January 19th:
CLICK TO ENLARGE

So the question is:
DOES THE DIVIDEND PAYMENT TRULY REFLECT 90% OF TAXABLE INCOME?
We don’t have copies of ACC’s tax returns so we have to play with the data we have. We can do this in several ways.
The first giveaway that something is not right is that the dividend amount is grossly disproportionate to EPS. While there can certainly be divergence between EPS and net taxable income, I would not expect taxable income to be 100 times larger. Accountants do not work to overstate taxable income, they try to understate it. For comparison, here are a few screen grabs of tried and true companies showing their dividends and EPS:

CLICK TO ENLARGE

CLICK TO ENLARGE

Notice that in each case, EPS is higher than the dividend. That’s because these companies can afford to pay the dividend without financing.
Another way we can figure out whether this is a fair dividend in light of taxable income is by the 10Q. The 10Q’s are much more detailed than any of the quick statistics available on the net. According to ACC’s Cash Flow Statement from the most recent 10Q, for the 9-month period ending September 30, 2008, the company had an Income Tax provision of $248,000 for the period and total distributions to common and restricted shareholdes of $36.254M. If we assume that this $248,000 tax provision applies to the 10% of net income that is not distributed to shareholders and they withold at a 38% corporate tax rate, we can interpolate that 10% of net taxable income is equal to:
$248,000 ÷ .38 = $652,000
We can multiply this value by 10 to try and get a measure of the total net taxable income for the enterprise, which gives us a number of $6.52M. Obviously, this is nowhere close to the $36.354M in dividends paid per the Cash Flow Statement.
Finally, we can simply look at the Cash Flow Statement from the recent 10Q (for 9-months) and compare the “Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities” (Cash Profits) with “Distributions to Common and Restricted Shareholders” (Dividends).
<table style="width: 170pt; border-collapse: collapse;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="227"> <colgroup span="1"><col style="width: 92pt;" span="1" width="123"><col style="width: 78pt;" span="1" width="104"></colgroup> <tbody> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="border: 0.5pt solid windowtext; width: 92pt; height: 15pt; background-color: transparent;" width="123" height="20">Cash Profits</td> <td class="xl63" style="border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; width: 78pt; background-color: transparent;" width="104">Dividends</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: windowtext; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; height: 15pt; background-color: transparent;" align="right" height="20">$22,960,000 </td> <td class="xl64" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: windowtext; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background-color: transparent;" align="right">$36,254,000 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> As you can see, Dividends are more than Cash Profits. I am now confident that this dividend is way too high. This begs a whole different set of questions?
How can this be justified by any common sense measure? How can the management of this company set the dividend this high according to reasonable business standards? Is this an example of stupidity or genius?
I will leave those questions to the powers that be. In the meantime, I will profit from the knowledge that I am not the sucker.
SO HOW DO THEY PAY THE DIVIDEND IF THEY DON’T HAVE THE INCOME TO SUPPORT IT?
Well, they do it the same way ProLogis and many of the other overleveraged REITs do it: the BORROW! That’s the mentality of these REITs - borrow and speculate on price appreciation!
Returning to the Cash Flow Statement for the last 9 month period, ACC had a mere $23M from Operating Activities (that includes rents and development fees). The company had a whopping $416M in cash flows from Financing Activities and spent $413M on property acquisitions (particularly the GMH purchase). Most of the financing was provided through the sale of common stock - $264.5M to be exact.
Now do you see why they keep the dividend high? It’s a lot more difficult to sell common stock (which diluted shareholder value by the way) if you pay dividends comensurate with crappy profits.
Too bad for the common shareholders that the senior debt holders are all too willing to let this continue. Why not… suckers turnover cash to the company in exchange for low priority common stock and the banks keep getting their interest payments. If anything ever goes wrong, the banks will just get the assets and leave the rest to the unsecured creditors to pick over. The common shareholders get even less. Leftovers are not plentiful for common stockholders when secured real property is the main asset class. Read my post titled “What Happens in Bankruptcy” for a clear understanding of shareholders place in the food chain.
How do I know the banks are complicit in allowing increases to the dividend? I read the Exhibits to the 10Q of course. These are the long boring documents filled with that special code we lawyers communicate to each other in. Exhibits to 10Q’s are almost always consummate examples of ”the fine print”.
Exhibits 10.1 and 10.2 to the recent 10Q were, respectively, the “Second Amendment to the First Amended and Restated Credit Agreement” and the “First Amendment to the Senior Secured Term Loan Agreement.” Although they were two documents, the effects were the same thing on two different loans. Here is the pertinent language from exhibit 10.1:
“2. Modification of the Loan Agreement. Borrower, the Lenders and Administrative Agent do hereby modify and amend the Loan Agreement as follows:

(a) By deleting subsection (i) of Section 5.02(g) of the Loan Agreement in its entirety and inserting in lieu thereof the following: “(i) no Default or Event of Default shall have occurred and be continuing at the time of declaration or payment thereof and the aggregate amount of such Cash dividends or distributions, together with the aggregate amount of Cash dividends or distributions made during the applicable period pursuant to the immediately following clause (ii), (A) do not exceed 115% of Funds From Operations for the current four fiscal quarter periods of Parent Guarantor ending September 30, 2008 and December 31, 2008, (B) do not exceed 110% of Funds From Operations for the current four fiscal quarter period of Parent Guarantor ending March 31, 2009, (C) do not exceed 100% of Funds from Operations during any other four consecutive fiscal quarters of the Parent Guarantor thereafter, and (D) do not exceed 100% of Funds From Operations during any one fiscal quarter for the fiscal quarters of the Parent Guarantor ending on December 31, 2008 and March 31, 2009,”
So what does all of that legal mumbo jumbo mean? If you figure it out you might be able to capitalize. Otherwise, stay tuned on this channel for Part II… coming soon.
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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yeah looks like a great target...commerical RE targeted around universities.....

kinda pointless to go into 150k debt or have your parents spend 150k or whatever......when you can't get a job

and i know alot of foreigners that normally would come to the states for their education

are changing their plans because of their local currencies tanking vs. the USD and the US education becoming so expensive
 

Woah, woah, Daddy's wrong, Mommy's right.
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Updated post from my buddy:

Top 3 Reasons Why You Should Not Listen To Me

<small>January 29th, 2009 <!-- by Richard --></small> I told you that American Campus Communities (ACC) is my “Short of the Year for 2009″ but you should not listen to me because:
1) Experience. I have never worked on Wall Street in any capacity. I once interviewed for a summer internship at the SEC but I didn’t get hired. I don’t think they liked my ultra capitalist viewpoints of the Microsoft Antitrust case. Hey - they asked me for my honest opinion!
2) Education. While I have a law degree and an MBA, I had mediocre grades from a 7th tier school and a horrible attendance record. In my defense, I attended some classes only once or twice. I spent most of my time trading and learning about other things. I was also playing ball with the Alameda Knights (whatup fellas!).
3) Wall Street. While I am short on ACC, there are many “professionals” that are long on the stock. They have millions of dollars of our money invested, deposited or otherwise Entrusted to them. They might have “Buy”, ”Outperform” or “Hold” ratings on the stock. While I don’t think any of these ratings are even close to being reasonable for this rubbish, they disagree. They must know something I don’t (unless I know something they don’t).
Here is a screen grab of institutional holders of ACC from Yahoo:
CLICK TO ENLARGE

Here is a screen grab of mutual funds that hold ACC (from Yahoo):
CLICK TO ENLARGE

Here are screen grabs of the firms that cover the stock, some upgrade/downgrade history from Yahoo and some price targets:
CLICK TO ENLARGE

CLICK TO ENLARGE

CLICK TO ENLARGE

See any names you recognize? Hmmm… I wonder if any of the “completely separate divisions” of one or more of the above firms, institutions or mutual funds have, or have had, any other relationships with ACC or other stocks in the sector? Loans maybe? That would be an interesting path to travel down but I’m 110% absolutely convinced that conflicts of interest and backscratching do not exist in this world. I’m sure it would be a waste of my time to explore that line of thinking any further.
It’s obvious that there are some reputable institutions involved with ACC. When it comes to investing, they are paid the big bucks to be smarter than me and you.
When the institutions say BUY you should probably buy. When they say HOLD you probably should h0ld? When they say SELL they are already out. Only a fool would bet against them. Dorm real estate is rock solid and the financial sector is filled with integrity.

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<embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/YvLkjuYunRw&hl=en&fs=1" allowfullscreen="true" allowscriptaccess="always" width="425" height="344"></object></p>
 

Woah, woah, Daddy's wrong, Mommy's right.
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Couple more posts from my friend. Stock price has fluctuated between 19.31 and 23.39 since my first post. Currently at about 21.2

Reverse Engineering Asset Values with Cap Rates

<small>January 30th, 2009 <!-- by Richard --></small> On the balance sheet of its most recent 10Q, American Campus Communities (ACC) listed the value of it’s real estate investments at $2.05B. This number closely reflects the amounts that ACC paid for its real estate holdings. That is NOT what the property is worth. I know that ACC paid too much. I know that because CEO Bill Bayless told me so - sort of.
Here is a brief dialogue between Analyst Karen Ford and CEO Bill Bayless from the transcript of the Q3 conference call at SeekingAlpha:
Karen Ford
And just a question on the V part of that LTV. What do you see as far as cap rates?
Bill Bayless, CEO
Right now, and some of the national brokers that we’ve talked to, the latest transaction we have closing is one in late September. It was at a major land grant institution, public institution about two miles from campus, class A product, that closed at an economic cap rate of 6.8%after contribution of management fee and CapEx.
So Bayless told us that cap rates are about 6.8% after contribution of management fee and CapEx. (I’m not exactly sure what the term “after contribution” means. Does he mean the Buyer’s perspective or the Sellers? I won’t speculate on his meaning and I will ignore that part of the equation. I think the amount is insignificant for my rough purposes.) He also spouted off about location and product… blah, blah, blah. While location is important, an ultra capitalist like me cares mostly about cash flow in this economy.
I don’t believe the 6.8% cap rate. Commercial real estate is not selling that low. Commercial real estate is not selling at all! I know a major industrial REIT is begging for someone to take 10% cap properties of their hands. Nobody is biting and nobody is lending. This is going to be the case for quite a while and ACC is going to get squeezed into Gambler’s Ruin even quicker.
I’m going to humor Bayless and use his 6.8% number for kicks but you can read Judy Weil’s artcile titled “Commercial Real Estate Offering 8%-9% Cap Rates, Anyone Interested?” at SeekingAlpha if you question my assertion with regard to cap rates. It is really just common sense that the cost of capital rises in a credit crunch… and make no mistake, we are in the Mother of All Credit Crunches.
Anyhow, we can figure out the true value of ACC’s property because we know what cap rates are like and what the properties cash flow at. Here is the basic formula we will use:
Asset Price = Net Operating Income (NOI) ÷ Capitalization Rate
In the case of ACC, if we figure out the NOI, we can solve for Asset Price. A common sense way to think of NOI is “… the number of dollars a property returns in a given year if the property were to be purchased for all cash and before consideration of income taxes or capital recovery.” (Click HERE for a good article). The formula for NOI is:
NOI = Gross Operating Income - Operating Expenses
Thus, for ACC’s Wholly Owned Properties, On-Campus Properties & Ground Leases for Q3:
NOI = $60,663,000 + $4,301,000 - $38,812,000 - $3,274,000 - $508,000 = $22,370,000
I can multiply this number by 4 to get annual NOI of $89,480,000. Now we can figure out the property value using NOI ÷ Bayless’ 6.8% Cap Rate such that:
ACC Real Estate Asset Value = $89,480,000 ÷ .068 = $1,315,882,300, or
ACC Real Estate Asset Value = $1.315B
This number is about $700M LESS than the $2.05B value shown for company’s real estate investments per the 10Q. If you subtract the value of all secured debt ($1,254,376,000), you can determine that ACC’s real estate equity is worth less than $100M.
If we use this new number to recalculate Total Assets, we find that Total Assets = $1,458,282,000. If you studied basic accounting you know that:
Total Assets = Total Liabilities + Stockholder’s Equity or
Stockholder’s Equity = Total Assets - Total Liabilities
Since we know that Total Liabilities = $1,355,333,000, we can calculate that:
Stockholder’s Equity = $1,458,282,000 - $1,355,333,000 = $102,949,000 or
Stockholder’s Equity = $103M or
$103M ÷ 42,305,883 shares = $2.44 per share
Per today’s closing price, the market cap for ACC is $923M or, by my calculations, about NINE TIMES REAL BOOK VALUE.
Now, I want you to remeber that I think that cap rates are realistically more like 10% + and they are only going up. We are going back to 1980’s style valuations and sooner or later we will have the second coming of the RTC! If we used a realistic cap rate, ACC would have a NEGATIVE valuation. This is how I know that ACC is headed towards Gambler’s Ruin! Who is going to refi them? Who is going to take more risk for the scheme?
Efficient Market Theory tells me that the stock ultimately headed in one direction. There might be detours on the way but the destination stays the same.
(You should know that the primary weakness in this calculation is the lack of consolidated data for ACC after the GMH Communities Trust merger. There is only one full quarter of data and there could be seasonal components to the data. I feel comfortable using these numbers because I know that ACC is weak and the economy is weak. Therefore, I do not expect a large upswing in NOI. Even if NOI does rise, I know that the cap rate figure I used is unrealistically low. If you don’t believe me, stop reading me, go buy ACC and don’t blame me when you lose your pants! Also, you should know that my analysis excluded development and management fee income. HOWEVER, I also excluded expenses incurred in those businesses and I excluded general and administrative expenses. If I included all of these components to evaluate the entire enterprise, we would get an even smaller number.)

Posted in Accounting, American Campus Comunities (ACC), Economics, Real Estate, Trading | No Comments »

10K Humor from GCT

<small>January 29th, 2009 <!-- by Richard --></small> In the course of reviewing the merger between American Campus Communities (ACC) and GMH Communities Trust (GCT) I found some interesting information.
The notes to GCT’s last 10K had some disclosures regarding related party transactions. (Note that these transactions took place before the merger with ACC.) In particular, they disclosed, “…on-going business relationships with Gary M. Holloway, Sr., entities affiliated with Mr. Holloway, and entities in which Mr. Holloway or the Company has an equity investment.”
All told, the company disclosed more than half a dozen transactions with Mr. Holloway. While I’m sure the company would defend each of these transactions as being on the up and up, I have my doubts. I know why disclosures are made in 10K’s. I know how to read-em and I know I’d to bleed-em.
Here is one very interesting disclosure taken directly from the 10K:
“In February 2005, the Company transferred its interest in Corporate Flight Services, LLC, including the corporate aircraft and associated debt initially contributed to the Operating Partnership at the time of the initial public offering, to Mr. Holloway. Corporate Flight Services, LLC had a net deficit of $171,000, net of $180,000 tax expense related to the taxable gain upon the transfer to Mr. Holloway, on the date it was transferred to Mr. Holloway. This transfer was accounted for as a capital contribution to additional paid-in capital. During the year ended December 31, 2007, 2006 and 2005, the Company paid Corporate Flight Services, LLC $1.2 million, $993,000 and $290,000, respectively for use of an aircraft owned by Corporate Flight Services, LLC.”
Enlightening, huh? Maybe it’s just business as usual? Maybe it means nothing? I’ll leave that to someone else to follow-up on. They can adjudicate the transactions for themselves.
 

Woah, woah, Daddy's wrong, Mommy's right.
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Updated post - ACC closed yesterday at 20.16, down 1.34 or 6.2% since the first post, it is, however, up today with everything else.

The Fugly Contest

<small>February 6th, 2009 <!-- by Richard --></small> I found this Yahoo comparison between American Campus Communities (ACC) and Education Realty Trust (EDR). While they are both hideous trolls with bad personalities, one is worse than the other.
EDR is overpriced and trades at about $4 per share. Also, keep in mind that EDR has less than ¾ the number of shares outstanding as ACC.
CLICK TO ENLARGE

Who is the winner? You need to look at their figures. Who is more proportional? Don’t be fooled by the Bootstrappin.

Posted in Accounting, American Campus Comunities (ACC), Real Estate, Trading | No Comments »

ACC’s Dividend - Part II

<small>February 6th, 2009 <!-- by Richard --></small>

[FONT=&quot]American Campus Communities (ACC) kept its quarterly dividend unchanged at $.3375 per share. I was hoping for a cut in the dividend for two reasons. First, I think that the stock would have immediately tanked, which would have made me lots of $ fast. Second, a cut would have given me a very accurate basis to predict the Q4 & annual earnings. Since ACC did not cut the dividend, I can only provide a low end earnings floor.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]I can predict an earnings floor based upon ACC’s debt covenants. You may recall that in my previous post regarding ACC dividend, I posted the following portion of a credit agreement pertaining to dividend coverage:[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]“2. Modification of the Loan Agreement. Borrower, the Lenders and Administrative Agent do hereby modify and amend the Loan Agreement as follows:

(a) By deleting subsection (i) of Section 5.02(g) of the Loan Agreement in its entirety and inserting in lieu thereof the following: “(i) no Default or Event of Default shall have occurred and be continuing at the time of declaration or payment thereof and the aggregate amount of such Cash dividends or distributions, together with the aggregate amount of Cash dividends or distributions made during the applicable period pursuant to the immediately following clause (ii), (A) do not exceed 115% of Funds From Operations for the current four fiscal quarter periods of Parent Guarantor ending September 30, 2008 and December 31, 2008, (B) do not exceed 110% of Funds From Operations for the current four fiscal quarter period of Parent Guarantor ending March 31, 2009, (C) do not exceed 100% of Funds from Operations during any other four consecutive fiscal quarters of the Parent Guarantor thereafter, and (D) do not exceed 100% of Funds From Operations during any one fiscal quarter for the fiscal quarters of the Parent Guarantor ending on December 31, 2008 and March 31, 2009,”[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]The purpose of a covenant like this is to prevent ACC liquidating too much of the company in the form of dividends to common shareholders. Remember, common shareholders are subsequent to lenders in bankruptcy so lenders concerned that ACC might try and distribute cash to the common shareholders than could be used to pay the lenders back. Although the premise is good, the metric should have been based on cash flow and earnings since FFO is a poor metric in a down real estate market. Using earnings or cash flow would have helped them keep a tighter leash on ACC. The banks weren’t so smart. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Anyhow, the above debt covenant can be expressed as a set of equations. If we know the numbers for certain variables, we can solve for others. Here are the variables I will use:[/FONT]
<table class="MsoNormalTable" style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody> <tr style=""> <td style="border: 1pt solid black; padding: 0in 5.4pt; background: rgb(238, 236, 225) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; width: 48.95pt;" valign="top" width="65">
Variable
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: black black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: 1pt 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; background: rgb(238, 236, 225) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; width: 104.95pt;" valign="top" width="140">
Quarterly Dividend
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: black black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: 1pt 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; background: rgb(238, 236, 225) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; width: 1.5in;" colspan="2" valign="top" width="144">
Aggregate Dividend
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.95pt; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="65"> D₁ =
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 104.95pt; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="140">
2009 Q2
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.5in; background-color: transparent;" colspan="2" valign="top" width="144">
N/A
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.95pt; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="65"> D₂ =
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 104.95pt; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="140">
2009 Q1
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.5in; background-color: transparent;" colspan="2" valign="top" width="144">
$14,276,250
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.95pt; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="65"> D₃ =
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 104.95pt; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="140">
2008 Q4
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.5in; background-color: transparent;" colspan="2" valign="top" width="144">
$14,403,000
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.95pt; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="65"> D₄ =
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 104.95pt; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="140">
2008 Q3
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.5in; background-color: transparent;" colspan="2" valign="top" width="144">
$12,517,000
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.95pt; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="65"> D₅ =
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 104.95pt; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="140">
2008 Q2
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.5in; background-color: transparent;" colspan="2" valign="top" width="144">
$9,334,000
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.95pt; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="65"> D₆ =
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 104.95pt; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="140">
2008 Q1
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.5in; background-color: transparent;" colspan="2" valign="top" width="144">
$9,209,000
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; background: rgb(238, 236, 225) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; width: 48.95pt;" valign="top" width="65"> Variable
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; background: rgb(238, 236, 225) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; width: 106.15pt;" colspan="2" valign="top" width="142">
Quarterly FFO
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; background: rgb(238, 236, 225) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; width: 106.8pt;" valign="top" width="142">
Aggregate FFO
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.95pt; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="65"> F₁ =
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 106.15pt; background-color: transparent;" colspan="2" valign="top" width="142">
2009 Q1
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 106.8pt; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="142">
???
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.95pt; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="65"> F₂ =
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 106.15pt; background-color: transparent;" colspan="2" valign="top" width="142">
2008 Q4
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 106.8pt; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="142">
???
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.95pt; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="65"> F₃ =
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 106.15pt; background-color: transparent;" colspan="2" valign="top" width="142">
2008 Q3
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 106.8pt; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="142">
$6,372,000
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.95pt; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="65"> F₄ =
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 106.15pt; background-color: transparent;" colspan="2" valign="top" width="142">
2008 Q2
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 106.8pt; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="142">
$10,589,000
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.95pt; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="65"> F₅ =
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 106.15pt; background-color: transparent;" colspan="2" valign="top" width="142">
2008 Q1
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 106.8pt; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="142">
$11,207,000
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.95pt; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="65"> F₆ =
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 106.15pt; background-color: transparent;" colspan="2" valign="top" width="142">
2007 Q4
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black rgb(240, 240, 240); border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 106.8pt; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="142">
$12,352,000
</td> </tr> <tr height="0"> <td style="border: medium none rgb(240, 240, 240); background-color: transparent;" width="87"> </td> <td style="border: medium none rgb(240, 240, 240); background-color: transparent;" width="140"> </td> <td style="border: medium none rgb(240, 240, 240); background-color: transparent;" width="2"> </td> <td style="border: medium none rgb(240, 240, 240); background-color: transparent;" width="142"> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> [FONT=&quot]From these variables, I can construct a set of equations to represent the Debt covenants. After all, the debt covenants are just mathematic rules to constrain Dividends with respect to FFO. In particular, I am concerned with figuring out Q4 FFO, so:[/FONT]
<table class="MsoNormalTable" style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody> <tr style=""> <td style="border: 1pt solid black; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 6.65in; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="638"> [FONT=&quot]“[/FONT][FONT=&quot]Cash dividends…do not exceed 115% of Funds From Operations [/FONT][FONT=&quot]for the current [/FONT][FONT=&quot]four fiscal quarter periods[/FONT][FONT=&quot] of Parent Guarantor ending September 30, 2008 and [/FONT][FONT=&quot]December 31, 2008[/FONT][FONT=&quot]“[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: rgb(240, 240, 240) black black; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 6.65in; background-color: transparent;" valign="top" width="638"> [FONT=&quot]The rule, as applied to the four quarters ending December 31 (Q4 2008) can be expressed as:[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]D₂ + D₃ + D₄ + D₅ ≤ 1.15 (F₂ + F₃ + F₄ + F₅) [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Or, using distributive property, as:[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]D₂ + D₃ + D₄ + D₅ ≤ 1.15F₂ + 1.15F₃ + 1.15F₄ + 1.15F₅[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]We can solve for F₂ such that:[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]D₂ + D₃ + D₄ + D₅ - 1.15F₃ - 1.15F₄ - 1.15F₅ ≤ 1.15F₂ or restated:[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]F₂ ≥ (D₂ + D₃ + D₄ + D₅ - 1.15F₃ - 1.15F₄ - 1.15F₅) ÷ 1.15[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]If we plug-in the constants that we know (or can reasonably approximate), we get:[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]F₂ ≥ [$[/FONT]14,276,250 + $14,403,000 + $12,517,000 + $9,334,000 – (1.15 × $6,372,000) – (1.15 × $10,589,000) – (1.15 × $11,207,000)] ÷ 1.15
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]F₂ ≥ [$[/FONT]14,276,250 + $14,403,000 + $12,517,000 + $9,334,000 – $7,327,800 - $12,177,350 - $12,888,050] ÷ 1.15
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]F₂ ≥ [$18,137,050 ÷ 1.15] or [/FONT][FONT=&quot]F₂ ≥ $15,771,347[/FONT][FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> [FONT=&quot]This tells us that we can expect FFO to be greater than or equal to $15,771,347 for Q4. I was really hoping that ACC would have to cut the dividend so I could derive an accurate FFO expectation. Since I know that the last thing they want to do is lower their dividend and tank the stock, I think it’s a fair assumption that they will cut it only to stay in compliance with their debt covenants. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]It is possible that ACC reports an FFO number that is lower than this. In that case, ACC has either: (1) violated its debt covenants, or (2) amended its debt covenants to allow for additional dividends. I think either of these scenarios is unlikely given the state of credit. Then again, we know the banks aren’t geniuses so anything is possible.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Since the FFO number is bolstered by about $18M in depreciation charges, I can’t tell you that ACC did not have a negative quarter. All I can tell you is that it likely did not lose more than $3M in the quarter.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]To be honest, I performed this analysis primarily as a personal exercise. When they cut the dividend in the future, I will be able to forecast an earnings ceiling. It is not a matter of if; it is a matter of when.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]How Does This Affect ACC’s Stock Price?[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]If ACC cut the dividend, I think the stock would have already been murdered. While I expected heavy volume on the first trading day after the dividend was cut, volume was actually very light. Daily volume slipped to 600k and average volume is 820k. That tells me that there is a lack of buyers. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Everyone is trying to abandon the sinking ship but lifeboats are scarce. In this case, women and children are last and the crew gets out first. The crew has been enjoying this POSH cruise and knows the sink and stink are inevitable. Party it up with dividends, Baby! Get me’ all drunk while we slip away. I know the deal: CHURN, CHURN, CHURN, then BURN BABY BURN![/FONT]
 

Woah, woah, Daddy's wrong, Mommy's right.
Joined
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Messages
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Currently at 21.46, another post

The Game is the Same

<small>February 9th, 2009 <!-- by Richard --></small> They say that the game is always the same and only the players change. Sometimes the players are nearly the same.
Here is a paragraph from a Stanford Law School class action summary for a case against GMH Communities Trust (GCT):
The original complaint alleges that defendants, GMH Communities Trust and certain of its officers and directors, disseminated false and misleading financial statements in a scheme to inflate the earnings of the Company and issued dividends in violation of loan covenants in order to drive the price of its stock higher. The higher stock price allowed the Company to sell a secondary offering in October 2005 on more favorable terms. Defendants portrayed the Company as a growing real estate investment trust in a particular niche market, student and marketing housing and military housing, paying high dividends. Unbeknownst to the market, the Company’s strong earnings were the result of accounting fraud. As part of the Company’s closing of its books on fiscal year 2005, GMH’s chief financial officer wrote to the Audit Committee indicating that there were problems with the “tone at the top” of the Company’s management. In response to the letter, the Audit Committee conducted an investigation which indicated, among other things, material weaknesses in internal controls, pressure by key executives on the accounting function and the need for adjustments in the financial statements in current and prior accounting periods. In addition, the Company’s issuance of $0.91 in 2005 dividends exceeded the 110% of funds from operations per share limitation under the loan covenants of its credit facility. The stock dropped 23% on the news from a close of $16.83 on March 10 to close at $12.90 on March 13. On March 31, 2006, the Company announced the continued delay in filing its 2005 annual report and that it expected to restate its prior previously reported financial results due to improper capitalization of expenses and the improper timing of recognition of revenue and expenses. Since the initial disclosure of the audit committee investigation, the Company has lost almost $224 million in market capitalization, closing at $11.21 on April 3, 2006 following the March 31, 2006 disclosure.
Click HERE for the full report. The case was settled for $8.75M.
As you know, American Campus Communities (ACC) purchase GCT last year. All the pieces are there. You just need to put them together with a dose of common sense. I see what’s happening - do you?
 

Woah, woah, Daddy's wrong, Mommy's right.
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Messages
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ACC closed at 17.12 today, down from 22.35 only a week ago.

Another post from my friend. Apparent Cramer spoke about the stock yesterday or today and recommended a buy on it.

Cramer on ACC

<small>February 17th, 2009 <!-- by Richard --></small> Here is a screengrab from CNBC referencing Lightning Round on Mad Money with Jim Cramer:
CLICK TO ENLARGE

I do not like ACC. I will be the counterparty to rockout Cramer’s party.
Cramer is an attorney - I like him. However, I have to seriously question this plug on ACC. I’ll assume that he and his staff have not reviewed the books. After all, I know they don’t have time to review every stock out there! If they did look over the financials, they are either incompetent or lack integrity for recommending this piece of garbage. Why is he recommending a REIT anyways?
I reiterate my “KA-KA-POO-POO-PEE-PEE” rating on the stock and give it a price target of DRILLBIT.

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Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
Joined
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doesn't take any long drawn out analysis to figure out commercial RE is fucked

doesn't really matter who you pick right now they all screwed with many of them bound for single digits as far as their individual stock price goes

all their charts look downright fugly and look prepared to do another waterfall move to new lows
 

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