Y-T-D record 24-19-1 (+11.29 units)
HOUSTON +1.40 over Green Bay<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
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Easy to be infatuated with the Packers currently as they’ve reeled off four consecutive wins in rather convincing fashion. Conversely, the Texans appear to be on the decline after being shellacked in their past two contests. However, Green Bay’s competition in that quartet leaves something to be desired as collectively, those opponents are 3-13 over their past 16 games. Houston was up against the likes of an angry Broncos squad and a potent Colts team, both occurring away. This is a case of perception meaning everything and that perception is wrongly directed in the Pack’s direction. Fact is, the Pack is weak defensively and David Carr will tear them apart. Furthermore, the Texans get a rare prime time game here on Sunday night and you know the place is going to be crazy and the players will play their collective hearts out. This pooch is extremely live here and we’re calling them outright. Play Houston +1.40 (Risking 1.5 units).
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Tennessee +3½ over JACKSONVILLE<o></o>
When you punt seven times, convert 3-of-11 third down tries and throw for a mere 117 yards, it would seem difficult to win. However, that was the case when these two last met earlier in the season and the Jaguars, despite these poor stats, emerged with a 15-12 win. The Titans would like to avenge that loss and keeping Jacksonville anywhere close to that previous performance should provide an opportunity to do so. QB Steve McNair is likely to return to the Tennessee lineup and even if he doesn’t backup QB Billy Volek has proved he’s capable of stepping in. Jags have been living a charmed life all year and blew a 17-point lead last week to the pitiful Lions only to win in OT. David Garrard looked awful in that game against the Lions weak pass rush and we just can’t justify laying points with this host that is not capable of winning big and plays from behind far too often. We’re calling the upset here but will gladly take the points being offered. Play Tennessee +3½ (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5).
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BUFFALO –1.05 over St. Louis<o></o>
The Rams last road game occurred in Miami where St. Louis was manhandled to the tune of 31-14 by the Dolphins. Yes, the 1-8 Dolphins. Look for the Bills to pretty much copy that game plan as they have the defense to slow down this pass-happy visitor and the running game that should be effective against this 29th ranked run defense. There’s been much ado about Buffalo’s inept offence but a closer looks has them scoring 20 or more in each of its past three home games. Rams not comfortable out of their dome and after big divisional win over Seahawks and Packers on deck next Monday, this one may get overlooked. Additionally, Ralph Wilson Stadium is, without doubt, the most difficult venue in the NFL to air it out in. You can’t pass the ball in late November at this wind tunnel and Marc Bulger and the whole team is going to get a painful lesson here. Furthermore, Mike Martz is not smart enough to figure that out. Play Buffalo –1.05 (Risking 1.58 units to win 1.5).<o></o>
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CLEVELAND –1 over NY Jets<o></o>
After combating the Eagles, Ravens and Steelers, this should be a very welcome guest for the Browns. Cleveland has been solid at home with four covers in five tries while the Jets morale is plummeting after butchering game against Ravens last week. A win last week by the Jets over the Ravens would have done wonders for Quincy Carter’s confidence. However, the team scored a measly three points in the second half, blew a 14 point lead, had two opportunities in OT to put together a drive and end it, and now take the road and visit a rather unfriendly venue for intruders. Brownies will face their easiest opponent in four weeks and after playing the aforementioned trio, this one may appear in slow motion for them. Play Cleveland –1 (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5).
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TAMPA BAY –7½ over SAN FRANCISCO<o></o>
Prohibitive spot here but Niners offer very little with current roster and are particularly weak away from home. In their past three road games, San Fran has been outscored by a 79-27 count and things don’t figure to improve against a Tampa team that is better than its 3-6 record would indicate. Can’t imagine these 49ers being too interested in this game after blowing a 17-point lead to the Panthers at home last week. This intruder is in a bad state of mind and we want no part of them right now. Possible blowout. Play Tampa Bay –7½ (No bets).<o></o>
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The Rest of the Games
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BALTIMORE –8 over Dallas<o></o>
Not anxious to spot more than a touchdown with a Ravens squad that is as offensively challenged as this one but the Cowboys are at a low point and may not ever see the end zone. Dallas is particularly weak on grass and arrives here on a short week downer after being embarrassed on Monday night. Normally, teams that get spanked have a tendency to follow that up with a big game, however, this Cowboy’s squad has not shown the ability to do that and thus, we’ll side with the home side here. Cowboy’s really are that bad. Play Baltimore –8 (No bets).
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CINCINNATI +4 over Pittsburgh<o></o>
Interesting spot for the Steelers as the inevitable letdown was supposed to have happened last week in Cleveland. Steelers didn’t oblige and now everyone is on this Steeler bandwagon, deservedly so. The Steelers have been near flawless but after five hugely emotional wins and their second straight on the road, taking home points, in a divisional game, with a confident Bengals team that has won three of four, has got to be considered the prudent move. Play Cincinnati +4 (No bets).
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CHICAGO +7½ over Indianapolis<o></o>
Wow, tough game to call as the Colts high powered offense will play a team that’s offensively challenged and right off the bat, you know the line is a bit jacked up. That’s the price you pay when you wager on the Colts and now the question is, do you want to pay a premium for the privilege of wagering on them? You can’t pick up a paper anywhere this week or turn on the radio without hearing about Peyton Manning’s quest to shatter Dan Marino’s TD record of 48. Colts getting plenty of press while the Bears have gone virtually unnoticed. All that publicity has a definite influence on the line, which may just be a tad too high as a result. Bears have been in every game thus far. This is a team that plays hard for 60 full minutes every week. Chicago's four consecutive losses from Sept. 26-Oct. 24 were by an average of only 7.5 points and now they’ve reeled off three in a row. Lovee Smith has worked wonders with this team and no way are we laying 7½ points to a team that plays as hard as this one and believes in everything they’re doing. In addition, the Colts play in Detroit on Thursday, on Thanksgiving Day, and may just be caught napping a bit here. Play Chicago +7½ (No bets).
<o>Washington +10 over PHILADELPHIA<o></o>
More often then not, the Skins have found themselves in a position to win most games this year despite their 3-6 record. Joe Gibbs has finally made a change at quarterback as Patrick Ramsey was named starter over the inept Mark Brunell. Things can’t get much worse on that side of the ball with Ramsey in and if Skins run Clinton Portis against suspect Philly run defense, they should keep this one within range. Remember, Philly is coming off of that Monday night road blowout and seldom have teams performed well after that scenario. Lastly, these two have developed a strong rivalry over the years because their in the same division and we just can’t endorse this type of lumber under the current conditions of this game. Line is a tad too fat. Play Washington +10 (No bets).
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MINNESOTA –7½ over Detroit<o></o>
Detroit simply does not have the ability to compete offensively with this host or many others for that matter. The Lions can’t find the end zone and only touchdowns last week came on a pair of punt returns. Randy Moss is still out for Minnesota but that won’t matter here. Vikes offense was rather crisp last week against the Packers and they’ll face a Lions team that has the traditional Thanksgiving game at home on Thursday following this tilt. Play Minnesota –7½ (No bets).
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NEW ORLEANS –4½ over Denver<o></o>
The Saints are about as predictable as a Terrell Owens touchdown dance but we’ll lean to them here thinking that they may carry some momentum here after home win over Chiefs. Broncos can be erratic, particularly on the road where Jake Plummer has a propensity for turning the ball over. Saints have been the most unpredictable team in this league for years and once again, nothing has changed. It’s damn if you do and damn if you don’t, however, we’ve learned never to spot them points at home and absolutely refuse to do so here. Play New Orleans +4½ (No bets).
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Miami +10 over SEATTLE<o></o>
Inclined to back a Dolphins team that has had a couple of weeks to prepare with their new coach and really has nothing to lose. The Seahawks have looked sloppy for more than a month now and while they have much more talent than this visitor, they lack consistency and are hardly worthy of a double-digit spot. Play Miami +10 (No bets).<o></o>
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OAKLAND +4 over San Diego<o></o>
Really like the look of this Chargers squad that is playing with as much confidence as any team in the NFL. Ladainian Tomlinson hasn’t run for 100 yards in five straight weeks, yet the Chargers keep winning. Drew Brees has thrown 15 TDs in the teams last six games, with just one interception and over that span his passer rating is an amazing 108.7. Chargers, on paper, should destroy this team. However, like Chris Berman says, “That’s why they play the games”!!!! With our refusal to lay road points in divisional games, we have to side with the Raiders but wouldn’t wager on it with monopoly money. Ever hear the saying, if it’s too good to be true then it usually is……Play Oakland +4 (No bets).
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Atlanta –2½ over NY GIANTS
Eli Manning gets his first start for the hometown Giants and we’ll have to see how he handles the pressure. If the pre-season was any indicator, it could be a long afternoon for the youngster. Michael Vick and the Falcons clicking right now and are the smarter side here. We mentioned last week that the Giants are just not the same with Michael Strahan and now things get a bit worse with a new QB. G-Men feeling strong pressure in that media hotbed they call New York and things are about to get worse for this host. Very close to making our recommended list. Play Atlanta –2½ (No bets).<o></o>
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Arizona +2½ over CAROLINA<o></o>
Panthers finally got back in the win column but that was against woeful Forty-Niners. This is actually a step up as the Cardinals playing some sound football and have strung together a couple of wins. No reason to be giving away any points in this one. Play Arizona +2½ (No bets).
HOUSTON +1.40 over Green Bay<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o></o>Easy to be infatuated with the Packers currently as they’ve reeled off four consecutive wins in rather convincing fashion. Conversely, the Texans appear to be on the decline after being shellacked in their past two contests. However, Green Bay’s competition in that quartet leaves something to be desired as collectively, those opponents are 3-13 over their past 16 games. Houston was up against the likes of an angry Broncos squad and a potent Colts team, both occurring away. This is a case of perception meaning everything and that perception is wrongly directed in the Pack’s direction. Fact is, the Pack is weak defensively and David Carr will tear them apart. Furthermore, the Texans get a rare prime time game here on Sunday night and you know the place is going to be crazy and the players will play their collective hearts out. This pooch is extremely live here and we’re calling them outright. Play Houston +1.40 (Risking 1.5 units).
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></o>Tennessee +3½ over JACKSONVILLE<o
></o>When you punt seven times, convert 3-of-11 third down tries and throw for a mere 117 yards, it would seem difficult to win. However, that was the case when these two last met earlier in the season and the Jaguars, despite these poor stats, emerged with a 15-12 win. The Titans would like to avenge that loss and keeping Jacksonville anywhere close to that previous performance should provide an opportunity to do so. QB Steve McNair is likely to return to the Tennessee lineup and even if he doesn’t backup QB Billy Volek has proved he’s capable of stepping in. Jags have been living a charmed life all year and blew a 17-point lead last week to the pitiful Lions only to win in OT. David Garrard looked awful in that game against the Lions weak pass rush and we just can’t justify laying points with this host that is not capable of winning big and plays from behind far too often. We’re calling the upset here but will gladly take the points being offered. Play Tennessee +3½ (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5).
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></o>BUFFALO –1.05 over St. Louis<o
></o>The Rams last road game occurred in Miami where St. Louis was manhandled to the tune of 31-14 by the Dolphins. Yes, the 1-8 Dolphins. Look for the Bills to pretty much copy that game plan as they have the defense to slow down this pass-happy visitor and the running game that should be effective against this 29th ranked run defense. There’s been much ado about Buffalo’s inept offence but a closer looks has them scoring 20 or more in each of its past three home games. Rams not comfortable out of their dome and after big divisional win over Seahawks and Packers on deck next Monday, this one may get overlooked. Additionally, Ralph Wilson Stadium is, without doubt, the most difficult venue in the NFL to air it out in. You can’t pass the ball in late November at this wind tunnel and Marc Bulger and the whole team is going to get a painful lesson here. Furthermore, Mike Martz is not smart enough to figure that out. Play Buffalo –1.05 (Risking 1.58 units to win 1.5).<o
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></o>CLEVELAND –1 over NY Jets<o
></o>After combating the Eagles, Ravens and Steelers, this should be a very welcome guest for the Browns. Cleveland has been solid at home with four covers in five tries while the Jets morale is plummeting after butchering game against Ravens last week. A win last week by the Jets over the Ravens would have done wonders for Quincy Carter’s confidence. However, the team scored a measly three points in the second half, blew a 14 point lead, had two opportunities in OT to put together a drive and end it, and now take the road and visit a rather unfriendly venue for intruders. Brownies will face their easiest opponent in four weeks and after playing the aforementioned trio, this one may appear in slow motion for them. Play Cleveland –1 (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5).
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></o>TAMPA BAY –7½ over SAN FRANCISCO<o
></o>Prohibitive spot here but Niners offer very little with current roster and are particularly weak away from home. In their past three road games, San Fran has been outscored by a 79-27 count and things don’t figure to improve against a Tampa team that is better than its 3-6 record would indicate. Can’t imagine these 49ers being too interested in this game after blowing a 17-point lead to the Panthers at home last week. This intruder is in a bad state of mind and we want no part of them right now. Possible blowout. Play Tampa Bay –7½ (No bets).<o
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></o>BALTIMORE –8 over Dallas<o
></o>Not anxious to spot more than a touchdown with a Ravens squad that is as offensively challenged as this one but the Cowboys are at a low point and may not ever see the end zone. Dallas is particularly weak on grass and arrives here on a short week downer after being embarrassed on Monday night. Normally, teams that get spanked have a tendency to follow that up with a big game, however, this Cowboy’s squad has not shown the ability to do that and thus, we’ll side with the home side here. Cowboy’s really are that bad. Play Baltimore –8 (No bets).
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></o>CINCINNATI +4 over Pittsburgh<o
></o>Interesting spot for the Steelers as the inevitable letdown was supposed to have happened last week in Cleveland. Steelers didn’t oblige and now everyone is on this Steeler bandwagon, deservedly so. The Steelers have been near flawless but after five hugely emotional wins and their second straight on the road, taking home points, in a divisional game, with a confident Bengals team that has won three of four, has got to be considered the prudent move. Play Cincinnati +4 (No bets).
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></o>CHICAGO +7½ over Indianapolis<o
></o>Wow, tough game to call as the Colts high powered offense will play a team that’s offensively challenged and right off the bat, you know the line is a bit jacked up. That’s the price you pay when you wager on the Colts and now the question is, do you want to pay a premium for the privilege of wagering on them? You can’t pick up a paper anywhere this week or turn on the radio without hearing about Peyton Manning’s quest to shatter Dan Marino’s TD record of 48. Colts getting plenty of press while the Bears have gone virtually unnoticed. All that publicity has a definite influence on the line, which may just be a tad too high as a result. Bears have been in every game thus far. This is a team that plays hard for 60 full minutes every week. Chicago's four consecutive losses from Sept. 26-Oct. 24 were by an average of only 7.5 points and now they’ve reeled off three in a row. Lovee Smith has worked wonders with this team and no way are we laying 7½ points to a team that plays as hard as this one and believes in everything they’re doing. In addition, the Colts play in Detroit on Thursday, on Thanksgiving Day, and may just be caught napping a bit here. Play Chicago +7½ (No bets).
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>Washington +10 over PHILADELPHIA<o></o>More often then not, the Skins have found themselves in a position to win most games this year despite their 3-6 record. Joe Gibbs has finally made a change at quarterback as Patrick Ramsey was named starter over the inept Mark Brunell. Things can’t get much worse on that side of the ball with Ramsey in and if Skins run Clinton Portis against suspect Philly run defense, they should keep this one within range. Remember, Philly is coming off of that Monday night road blowout and seldom have teams performed well after that scenario. Lastly, these two have developed a strong rivalry over the years because their in the same division and we just can’t endorse this type of lumber under the current conditions of this game. Line is a tad too fat. Play Washington +10 (No bets).
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></o>MINNESOTA –7½ over Detroit<o
></o>Detroit simply does not have the ability to compete offensively with this host or many others for that matter. The Lions can’t find the end zone and only touchdowns last week came on a pair of punt returns. Randy Moss is still out for Minnesota but that won’t matter here. Vikes offense was rather crisp last week against the Packers and they’ll face a Lions team that has the traditional Thanksgiving game at home on Thursday following this tilt. Play Minnesota –7½ (No bets).
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></o>The Saints are about as predictable as a Terrell Owens touchdown dance but we’ll lean to them here thinking that they may carry some momentum here after home win over Chiefs. Broncos can be erratic, particularly on the road where Jake Plummer has a propensity for turning the ball over. Saints have been the most unpredictable team in this league for years and once again, nothing has changed. It’s damn if you do and damn if you don’t, however, we’ve learned never to spot them points at home and absolutely refuse to do so here. Play New Orleans +4½ (No bets).
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></o>Inclined to back a Dolphins team that has had a couple of weeks to prepare with their new coach and really has nothing to lose. The Seahawks have looked sloppy for more than a month now and while they have much more talent than this visitor, they lack consistency and are hardly worthy of a double-digit spot. Play Miami +10 (No bets).<o
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></o>OAKLAND +4 over San Diego<o
></o>Really like the look of this Chargers squad that is playing with as much confidence as any team in the NFL. Ladainian Tomlinson hasn’t run for 100 yards in five straight weeks, yet the Chargers keep winning. Drew Brees has thrown 15 TDs in the teams last six games, with just one interception and over that span his passer rating is an amazing 108.7. Chargers, on paper, should destroy this team. However, like Chris Berman says, “That’s why they play the games”!!!! With our refusal to lay road points in divisional games, we have to side with the Raiders but wouldn’t wager on it with monopoly money. Ever hear the saying, if it’s too good to be true then it usually is……Play Oakland +4 (No bets).
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Eli Manning gets his first start for the hometown Giants and we’ll have to see how he handles the pressure. If the pre-season was any indicator, it could be a long afternoon for the youngster. Michael Vick and the Falcons clicking right now and are the smarter side here. We mentioned last week that the Giants are just not the same with Michael Strahan and now things get a bit worse with a new QB. G-Men feeling strong pressure in that media hotbed they call New York and things are about to get worse for this host. Very close to making our recommended list. Play Atlanta –2½ (No bets).<o
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></o>Arizona +2½ over CAROLINA<o
></o>Panthers finally got back in the win column but that was against woeful Forty-Niners. This is actually a step up as the Cardinals playing some sound football and have strung together a couple of wins. No reason to be giving away any points in this one. Play Arizona +2½ (No bets).
