Sharpest Week 4 (YTD: 28-38 -2.345)

[VoiceofReason101]

My system: Ultimately it deals with value, match ups, spot, and perception.

I'm personally betting my 2* at $500, 1* at $250, .5* at $125 etc.this season.


2*= strong play
1*= medium play
5/.25*= Small plays


Week 1: 9-12 -5.2245
Week 2: 8-9 +4.9075
Week 3: 8-12 -2.08


Some sincere thoughts thus far:

So here we are in Week 4, I've had 3 losing weeks ATS to start the season (8-9 being my best) and only one week in the black. Thing is I feel as confident now more so than I ever have. You might ask how can this be? Is this just the typical mindset of a gambler? What I think is when one has been spending as much time doing something they do well you get a scent for things. Its like when one starts getting comfortable around women, no matter if you were to lose on one you know that you'll be able to replace her soon with someone only better. There is no doubt in my mind that this is merely a minor bump on the road.

Got to get some sleep but I want to make a note that I might jump on some early lines, I'll try posting just minutes after they become available at Bookmaker. At this point these are teams I'm interested in:

South Carolina
Stanford
Army
Kentucky
Miami
N.C. State
Boston College

Other possibles that I'm not as high on:

BYU
Purdue
Houston
Clemson (Spiller status has to be checked first)
Oregon

 

[VoiceofReason101]

If anyone has any information concerning Spiller's status please share it, thank you

 

[VoiceofReason101]

Got to get some sleep but I want to make a note that I might jump on some early lines, I'll try posting just minutes after they become available at Bookmaker. At this point these are teams I'm interested in:

South Carolina
Stanford
Army
Kentucky
Miami
N.C. State
Boston College

Other possibles that I'm not as high on:

BYU
Purdue
Houston
Clemson (Spiller status has to be checked first)
Oregon

Please note this by no way means I'm going to be on all these games even if I bet on it or not. I simply see a good possibility of getting some sharp early lines. I might middle, scalp, etc. some of those plays later on the week.

 

[VoiceofReason101]

Fresno State

 

[VoiceofReason101]

2* So. Miss +14 -110
1* Stanford -6.5 -110
1* Miami +1 -110
1* Kentucky +24 -110
1* UNLV -3.5 -110
.50* Arkansas State PK -110

All Bookmaker Plays

 

[VoiceofReason101]

Add:

.50* Fresno State +14 -110


Note: Going to wait on Army

 

[VoiceofReason101]

.25* South Carolina +4.5 -110

 

[VoiceofReason101]

2* So. Miss +14 -110
1* Stanford -6.5 -110
1* Miami +1 -110
1* Kentucky +24 -110
1* UNLV -3.5 -110
.50* Arkansas State PK -110
.50* Fresno State +14 -110
.25* South Carolina +4.5 -110

Lines are already moving, back to justify these in a bit

 

[curinator]

On the right track to a stellar week with all that line movement. BOL sir.

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Wake's line has already moved 3 points.

 

[VoiceofReason101]

Wake's line has already moved 3 points.

The line actually opened at BC +3 at Bookmaker and I was personally a little stunned. Its too bad I liked BC haha

 

[VoiceofReason101]

On the right track to a stellar week with all that line movement. BOL sir.

killed the NFL today, hope this is a sign for good things to come here.

 

[gynecologist]

Wow 2 units on So Miss.. I should probably follow them, they've burned me thats why I'm a little gunshy.

GL this week man, it was good talking to you.

Big week for ya!

 

[VoiceofReason101]

Wow 2 units on So Miss.. I should probably follow them, they've burned me thats why I'm a little gunshy.

GL this week man, it was good talking to you.

Big week for ya!

Remember Gyno every fcuking week is a new week. You can't sit here and say Okay this team fcuked me so I'm not gonna play them anymore or anytime soon, etc. Gambling=money and you can't be bias when it comes to money no matter your past experiences may be.

Fun times, GL my friend

 

[VoiceofReason101]

Have had winning weeks in 15 out of my last 18 in the NFL, I highly suggest anyone that might be viewing my college plays to please check the NFL thread. While I feel that I can outplay most handicappers in this sport due to my system. I feel that I'm unmatched in the NFL.

 

[Kevo]

Thanks VoiceofReason. I'll definitely check your picks for the NFL. Any thoughts on Miami/Indianapolis?

 

[AlwaysKeen]

Gl vor...

 

[Sekrah]

Remember Gyno every fcuking week is a new week. You can't sit here and say Okay this team fcuked me so I'm not gonna play them anymore or anytime soon, etc. Gambling=money and you can't be bias when it comes to money no matter your past experiences may be.

Fun times, GL my friend

Agreed.. So many people backed off Colorado last week and it was probably the best spot they'll have all year. We had a freebie at -7 against an inferior opponent and too many people hit the breaks because they lost to Toledo in a bad spot.

 

[VoiceofReason101]

Post #14 should read "what your past experiences may be"

Kevo: Just being honest, with the NFL its much easier as there's less games for my system to account for, though I have no doubts this is an easier game to beat. This is going to be proven weekly as I hit some of these lines early and you'll see lines moving my way 75% of the time. So its only a matter of time I start picking things up as I did last year around this part of the season. Thank you for taking the time to post, GL

Pags: nice talk yesterday bud, we'll "crack some nutts" this week bud. Talk to you tonight

Sekrah: I know you know what the deal is bud, your one of the few guys I make a point to check out to see who you fancy. GL my friend, hope to see you become a regular in my threads haha.

Some thoughts will be posted later tonight, have work first.

 

[GoSooners]

If anyone has any information concerning Spiller's status please share it, thank you

VOR...Spiller is listed as probable and both he and the coaching staff insist that the injury isn't serious. I like the Oregon play. Cal WR Boateng is out with a broken foot suffered in the Minny game.. He was Cal's leading receiver in 2008. BOL