Got this from across the street. Excellent read
Betting the Super Bowl: A Basic Strategy Guide
Wagering on the Super Bowl has increased virtually every year. The game has become so large that Las Vegas is inundated in early February each year with tourists looking to bet on the big game. This article lays out a “basic strategy” for Super Bowl bettors to attempt to make money on the game.
Basic Strategy 1: The greatest value typically isn’t on the side or total.
Many will disagree with me here, pointing to numerous past Super Bowl results and mispricings.
However, the natural variability of the game, along with unknown factors, will always contribute to certain results where the final score is way off from the line. This does not mean the line was easily identifiable as being ‘off’ PRIOR to the game. For example, in the 2004 SB, the Patriots could easily have gotten an extra turnover or two, won the game by 14, and all would have talked about how the line was too low at seven. Similarly, the Panthers could have won outright, and many could have pointed to how the line was way too high.
The truth is that most Super Bowls have lines that are pretty sharp based on the information available at kickoff. So it’s typically difficult to find great value betting the side or the total.
Every now and then a great defensive team plays a great offensive team. This is one time where a larger bet (on the underdog) can often be recommended, since the line is typically inflated to reflect all the favorite action from square bettors. An example of this occurred just two years ago, when the Tampa Bay Bucs actually got 3 ½ points vs. the Oakland Raiders.
Additionally, there are times that the public falls so in love with certain teams that the line inflates to an exaggerated level.
Basic Strategy 2: Favorite and over bettors should look to get down early in the week, underdog and under bettors should look to wait.
The side and total both tend to trickle up ever so slightly during the week, reflecting all the money from the recreational bettors on the favorite and the over. For example, in 2003 the Patriots opened at minus 6 ½ and went to 7 during the week. Underdog bettors were even able to get +7 +100 on game day at several smaller independent Las Vegas books, including the Palms. In 2005 the Patriots opened -6.5, but went to -7 immediately. Based on that, +7 +100s and +7.5 should pop up on Sunday. Money is coming on the Steelers. If you like the Men of Steel lay -3.5 ASAP before this number rises.
Basic Strategy 3: Savvy bettors don’t lay minus 110 on the big game.
In faraway places, many offshore books offer lines on the game at minus 105. One prominent book (Pinnaclesports.com) actually has minus 104 pricing on ALL NFL games during the entire year! Las Vegas bettors can typically play the game at minus 105 at several shops. In Vegas, both Coast and Stations properties deal the game with half vigorish. Bottom line, based on the reduced vigorish and line differences, the savvy bettor is playing into a tiny house edge.
Basic Strategy 4: Look to avoid the sports services trying to sell you a sure winner on the game.
There are some hard working services that can and do pick more winners than losers, thus making their clients money. For every good service, however, there are 10 bad ones that just rely on the ignorance and gullibility of the American public.
Avoid the guys on TV and in USA Today touting their 70% year-to-date record, and documented 85% lifetime Super Bowl record. If these guys could hit even 65% they would have made multi-millions long ago just betting their own picks. Additionally, you might want to ask these guys why they didn’t bother to sign up for the prestigious Golden Nugget or Las Vegas Hilton contests. Upwards of 67% would be a good enough record to bag the $200,000-plus 1st-place prize in either contest. How generous of those guys to let someone else win by sitting out!
The truth is that most of these guys lack the gaming competence to run Bingo Night at the local senior citizen center. Many of them actually five, six or even eight select “clubs” monitored by an independent service. Based on that, they can always point to at least one “Emerald” service winning at around 60%. Never mind that the “Ruby” service is 8-14 on the year and, coincidentally, is never mentioned going forward.
Basic Strategy 5: Look to avoid 1-way ‘needle-in-the-haystack’ proposition bets where you are only able to bet “yes” on an outcome.
Books take a huge handle on the game, but that is not where they make the big profits.
Rather, they realized about 10 years ago that the real profits could be made booking dozens and even hundred of propositions bets.
Some props are fairly priced, but others are typically sucker bets, such as “Who will score the 1st touchdown?” Here, popular star players are often given odds as low as 3-1 when their true odds should be more like 8-1. The telltale sign of a sucker bet is a bet where they won’t let you bet the ‘no’ back the other way. If this is the case, buyer beware! Good luck trying to win playing into these props, on which the house often has a 60% overall hold.
Basic Strategy 6: Look to actively bet fairly priced prop bets where you are being given the option to bet in either direction.
For example, the line on the longest touchdown is 43.5 yards. You notice that you can bet over or under on the proposition, a sure sign that a prop is a fair bet, and not a sucker bet.
Basic Strategy 7: Avoid sucker Super Bowl ties-lose parlay cards at all costs.
Las Vegas used to make considerable money on these cards; however, they were willing to give the bettors at least a chance to win. Now, they have given in to corporate greed, where they make every option on these sucker cards a ties-lose proposition, such as total field goals “over/under” three. When prop’s lands on the number, ALL the bettors lose regardless of how they bet. That’s not right, and you shouldn’t let them get away with it.
Basic Strategy 8: The more obscure the proposition, the more likely it may be mispriced.
Savvy bettors do their homework, and it is not unusual for them to find advantage plays even on things like “Philadelphia Soul points -28.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles points”. The best place in Las Vegas to wager on propositions in Las Vegas is the Imperial Palace, the Palms and the Las Vegas Hilton, which both have literally hundreds of them. These books recognize that they are giving up some money to the wiseguys picking off some mistakes, but this is more than made up by a sea of tourist money betting every star player to go ‘over’ often-inflated yardage totals.
Basic Strategy 9: In proposition betting, let the public back its favorite players, then fade select ‘square’ line moves late.
This typically means going ‘under’ total yardage numbers for select star players. For example, this year everyone will be betting on Bettis to get a TD and rush yards.
Basic Strategy 10: When betting propositions, shop until you drop.
Big money is being fired all around town and it is not unusual to find huge differences between books on prop pricings.
Basic Strategy 11: Look for middles everywhere.
For example, this morning at the Palms you could play total TDS UNDER 5.5 +140. A few days ago you could get the SB OVER 45 -110. That is a 30 cent middle, and on top of it you had a much better chance going 2-0 than you did going 0-2.
Just a few years ago players were able to play the Patriots +525 vs. the Rams on the money line vs. the Stratosphere, while placing -425 bets on the Rams at other Vegas books. Many bettors won thousands by repeatedly betting $1,000 to make $5,250 on the Pats, then rushing back betting $4,250 to make $1,000 on the Rams to win the game!
Basic Strategy 12: A documented 39-0 Super Bowl System. Bet ‘No Overtime’
No Super Bowl game has ever gone OT. Every year this option is offered; the ‘yes’ typically closes around +800 the ‘no’ -1000. I’m not saying that no Super Bowl will every go OT; in fact, many have come within a whisker of doing so. However, no NFL game ever has a 10% chance to go into OT, so this bet always represents an overlay. For whatever reason, the public LOVES to bet the yes on this prop, such that the odds around town always seem to come down each year, giving ‘no’ players value.
Note that the ‘No OT’ bet is a particular good one any year that you are playing the underdog at +6.5 or greater, as you can be assured that in the unlikely event you lose your OT bet, you will at least win your bet on the underdog. This year, with a spread below 6, no such special situation exists.
Basic Strategy 13: Favorite bettors should consider the money line, underdog bettors should look to take the points.
Historically, the team that covers the Super Bowl has tended to win the game outright. Based on an overreaction to this, Super Bowl money lines often close too low.
The last two years the Patriots were a 7-point favorite. Seven-point favorites usually have money lines dealt at around -320 favorite/+260 underdog. The actual line was dealt around -245/+220 the last two years.
For whatever reason, the Super Bowl betting public loves to bet the underdog on the money line, instead of taking the generous points. This turned out to be a very expensive decision the last two year’s.
With a public team Pittburgh the more modest favorite, and two straight close games, this opportunity may no longer materialize.
Basic Strategy 14: It’s just one game. Don’t overbet it!
Enjoy the game and don’t bet so much that your weekend’s happiness is contingent on winning your wager(s).
