STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 24th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Wednesday, 9/24/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #26
•Papelbon Back From Suspension: The Philadelphia Phillies on Tuesday activated closer Jonathan Papelbon from his seven-game suspension for making an obscene gesture on the mound earlier this month. Phillies manager Ryne Sandberg said he planned to use Papelbon in save situations during the final week of the regular season. The 33-year-old Papelbon grabbed his crotch and gestured toward Phillies fans during a Sept. 14 game. He then had a physical run-in with umpire Joe West. Before the suspension, Papelbon appeared in 64 games and had finished 50 this year. He has 37 saves and a 2-3 record with a 2.10 ERA. The veteran reliever has logged 286 career saves for the Phillies and the Boston Red Sox since 2005.
•Blue Jays Manager John Gibbons Likely Back For 2015: The morning line on John Gibbons: If Alex Anthopoulos is back as general manager of the Blue Jays then Gibbons will return as manager next season. That may not be the right call or one that will appease fans in any way but it’s the call that is almost certainly to be made. The only way Gibbons will be fired, we're told, is if one of two possible scenarios come true: 1) If Anthopoulos is let go, which is not expected in the days to come; 2) If someone above Anthopoulos and above club president Paul Beeston, someone from Rogers corporate land, determines that the forever circling Blue Jays need to be shaken up again. Something does need to happen with this ball club. The question, as always, is what? In this lost opportunity of a baseball season, the biggest facade going — and we all fell for it in our own way — was the notion these Blue Jays were contenders.
The truth is, they were not. They hung around for awhile. They were numerically close. But at no time in the second half of this big league season did they ever make any noise, any real push. For half a season, they had the look of a playoff team. A dangerous team. But nobody wins a pennant in July. “The best teams get there,” said Gibbons, pre-game talking post-season. “The lesser teams don’t... 162 games answers a lot of questions.” That is a typical Gibbons retort. There is both simplicity and meaning in it. And without coming right out and saying it, Gibbons was calling his Jays a lesser team. And it’s difficult to argue with his inadvertent conclusion. For one half of the schedule, the first half, they played .555 baseball — at 90-win pace. For the second half (not including last night) it has been .446 ball — 73-win pace.
In August and September when pennants are won and lost, when there was still opportunity, the Jays have won 18 games, lost 27 — .400 baseball. That’s 65-win pace. They were worst when it mattered most. The more important the game, the bigger the series, the less competitive this team was. “They show up,” Gibbons said of his team, talking how they battle. “It’s never a lack of effort.” Since sweeping the Tigers in Detroit in June, the Blue Jays have played 31 series: They won eight of them. The Jays played eight series in August. They lost the first game in all eight of those series. And maybe those kind of numbers make the second half even worse. Because if the effort was there, then the talent is not. And if the talent is not, how does Anthopoulos go about fixing all that with his budget limitations and the discrepancy between young pitching and old everyday players?
This season, in fairness, has been a collective collapse. Almost everyone is to blame for something. Ownership, for accepting mediocrity for far too long, and for possibly getting in the way of progress, takes a hit here. Anthopoulos, the general manager, who wasn’t aggressive enough in the winter or the summer to fix the apparent needs and then the needs brought on by injury and lack of performance, takes a hit. The manager, Gibbons, for having another team that played sloppy baseball, has some answering to do. And the players, almost to a man, came up short at different times in different ways. Jose Bautista got hot in September after it was over. When he was needed in August, after speaking out post-trade deadline, he was nowhere to be found.
Edwin Encarnacion was terrific until a base-running injury ostensibly ended his season. He missed 33 games to injury, never really found his form again, and the Jays went basically 50 games without Encarnacion playing or being Encarnacion. Jose Reyes played shortstop like a guy with a hamstring problem. Brett Lawrie missed more games than he played; When he last played on June 22, the Blue Jays were in first place in the American League East, 11/2 games ahead of Baltimore. Colby Rasmus all but disappeared before he was mercifully benched.
Gibbons did not manage one nine-inning game with his starting lineup in place. He never had that luxury. But what he didn’t get is the kind of unexpected support the Baltimore Orioles received in running away with the division. The surprises, aside from kid pitchers, were few for a team with below average starting pitchers, ranking 11th in the American League, and a below average bullpen, ranking worse. As of Monday, the Blue Jays had the 15th best record in baseball. And that’s really just par for the course post World Series years. The last 10 seasons, they’ve been 20th, 22nd, 14th, 13th, 20th, 11th, 14th, 11th and 17th. Not once since 1998 have they been in the top third in baseball. Sixteen straight seasons of playing for next year. You get a few weeks of hope, like this season, and it feels all anew, exciting, enticing. And then reality sets in again. This is September: This is what the Blue Jays are.
•Dan Haren Made $10 Million Monday Night: Actually, he made it over the course of the year, but he crossed over the 180 innings pitched line Monday night, and that caused his $10 million option to kick in. It’s a player option, so he can choose to walk away from it if he’d like. Though, honestly, I think he’d be kind of dumb to do that. He has really come on as of late, but overall he had a pretty “meh” year, notching 13 wins despite a 4.03 ERA and a posting his lowest K/9 rate of his career. It was his third straight year with an ERA+ under 90. At this point he’s an innings eater. And there is value in having an innings eater around. Just not multi-year value or possibly even value greater than $10 million. Haren likes the west coast. He should exercise his option and stick with the Dodgers.
•Angels' Hamilton, Shoemaker Make Progress: Los Angeles Angels right-hander Matt Shoemaker (mild left oblique strain) and left fielder Josh Hamilton (sore right ribcage) each took another step forward in their quest to recover from late-season injuries. Shoemaker played soft catch for the first time since being injured during his Sept. 15 start against the Seattle Mariners and having to leave the game. "It's less sore than it has been, so I know it's going in the right direction," said Shoemaker, who is 16-4 with a 3.04 ERA. Angels manager Mike Scioscia said he's "very encouraged" that Shoemaker will be ready to pitch in the postseason. "But you're not going to know until he gets on a mound and turns it loose, and that's still a little ways away," Scioscia said before the Angels' 8-4 loss to Oakland. Scioscia called the chances of Shoemaker making an appearance before the regular season ends "very remote."
"Given where we're at in the season with us in the playoffs, we're just trying to play it smart," Shoemaker said, "but I also want to get going as soon as possible, too. That's kind of how we're weighing everything." Hamilton, who hasn't played in a game since Sept. 16 against Seattle, took swings Monday off a batting tee. "Josh actually feels pretty good today," Scioscia said. "We're encouraged. He hasn't really gotten into total baseball activities where you're going to have a huge opportunity to read where he is, but he's starting to swing again, which is a good sign." The Angels believe there's a chance Hamilton could return to action before the end of the regular season, and he hopes he can play Wednesday in the series-finale against Oakland. "I don't know," Scioscia said of a Wednesday return. "He gets a little bit aggressive. We'll wait and see where he is in working out tomorrow."
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Betting Notes - Wednesday
National League
•Mets-Nationals - 7:05 PM
--Gee is 1-2, 4.26 in his last three starts.
--Gonzalez is 3-1, 3.86 in his last four starts.
--Mets won four of their last six games.
--Washington won nine of its last ten games.
--Eight of last nine Washington games stayed under total.
•Pirates-Braves - 7:10 PM
--Locke is 1-1, 2.79 in his last three starts.
--Teheran is 0-4, 2.67 in his last four starts; Braves were shut out in three of the four games.
--Pirates won 11 of their last 13 games- they clinched a Wild Card last night.
--Atlanta lost ten of its last eleven games.
--Seven of last eight Pittsburgh games stayed under.
•Phillies-Marlins - 7:10 PM
--Kendrick is 1-2, 4.42 in his last three starts.
--Hand is 0-2, 6.55 in his last two starts.
--Phillies lost seven of their last nine games.
--Miami lost four of its last five games.
--Last four Miami games stayed under the total.
•Brewers-Reds - 7:10 PM
--Lohse is 0-0, 1.93 in his last two starts.
--Corcino is 0-1, 3.09 in two starts this season.
--Brewers lost five of their last six games.
--Cincinnati lost six of its last eight games.
--Last seven Milwaukee games stayed under the total.
•Cardinals-Cubs - 8:05 PM
--Lackey is 1-1, 5.73 in his last four starts.
--Arrieta is 2-0, 1.27 in his last three starts.
--Cardinals won eight of their last eleven games.
--Cubs lost four of their last six games.
--Last four Arrieta starts went over the total.
•Rockies-Padres - 9:10 PM
--Flande is 0-2, 4.84 in his last four starts.
--Wieland allowed four runs in 2.1 IP at Colorado in his first start since 2012.
--Colorado won seven of its last eight games.
--San Diego won seven of its last nine games.
--Four of last five San Diego games stayed under total.
•Giants-Dodgers - 10:10 PM
--Hudson is 0-3, 11.02 in his last four starts.
--Kershaw is 6-0, 2.20 in his last six starts.
--Giants lost seven of their last ten games.
--Dodgers won four of their last six games.
--Under is 5-1-1 in last seven San Francisco games; over is 7-1-1 in last nine Dodger games.
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American League
•Orioles-Yankees - 1:05 PM
--Norris is 3-0, 1.48 in his last four starts.
--Greene is 1-1, 2.12 in his last three starts.
--Orioles lost three of their last five games.
--New York won five of their last seven games.
--Eight of last twelve Yankees games stayed under the total.
•White Sox-Tigers - 1:05 PM
--Sale is 2-1, 3.12 in his last four starts.
--Verlander is 2-0, 3.60 in his last three starts.
--White Sox are 5-1 in game following their last six losses.
--Detroit lost four of its last seven games.
--Last four Detroit games stayed under the total.
•Angels-Athletics - 3:35 PM
--Santiago is 1-2, 10.38 in his last four starts.
--Lester is 3-0, 1.29 in his last three starts.
--Angels lost five of their last eight games.
--Oakland won three of its last five games.
--Nine of last thirteen Oakland games stayed under the total.
•Mariners-Blue Jays - 7:05 PM
--Walker is 2-2, 3.48 in four starts this year.
--Buehrle is 1-1, 5.21 in his last three starts.
--Mariners lost eight of their last eleven games.
--Toronto lost eight of its last twelve games.
--Seven of last nine Seattle games went over the total.
•Royals-Indians - 7:05 PM
--Vargas is 0-3, 9.00 in his last three starts.
--Bauer is 0-1, 4.74 in his last four starts.
--Royals won three of their last four games.
--Indians won six of their last nine games.
--Four of last five Cleveland games went over.
•Rays-Red Sox - 7:10 PM
--Odorizzi is 2-1, 2.55 in his last four starts.
--Ranaudo is 0-3, 6.28 in his last three starts.
--Tampa Bay lost three of its last five games.
--Red Sox lost five of their last seven games.
--Last three Ranaudo starts stayed under total.
•Astros-Rangers - 8:05 PM
--Feldman is 1-1, 1.72 in his last four starts.
--Bonilla is 2-0, 3.27 in his first two MLB starts.
--Astros lost eight of their last twelve games.
--Rangers won ten of their last eleven games.
--Six of last nine Texas games went over total.
Interleague
•Diamondbacks-Twins - 1:10 PM
--Nuno is 0-3, 4.26 in his last four starts.
--Hughes is 0-1, 5.14 in his last three starts.
--Arizona lost seven of its last eight games.
--Minnesota lost 20 of its last 29 games.
--Over is 8-1-1 in last ten Minnesota games.
•Incredible Stat of the Day
Baltimore Orioles Bud Norris is 14-3 in his team starts against the money line (82.3%) versus American League teams scoring 4.7 or less runs per game on the season this season. The right-hander has also been brilliant on the year notching an overwhelming 16-4 record against the money line versus American League teams with an on base percentage .330 or worse, along with a 12-1 mark against division opponents.
Despite issuing a season-high five walks, Norris remained unbeaten over his last five turns after yielding only two hits in 5 1/3 frames in Wednesday’s 6-1 win over Toronto. The 29-year-old, who is 6-6 with a 4.83 ERA in 14 road turns this season, is 3-0 with a 1.48 ERA in September. Norris has won each of his three career starts versus the Yankees – all having occurred since June 21 – and his last outing against them was his most impressive, allowing three hits and striking out a season-high 10 over seven scoreless innings on Sept. 12.
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