Service Plays Wednesday 5/7/14

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STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 5/7/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_________________________________________



***** Wednesday, 5/7/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
________________________________________________________

NBA Playoff Journal (May 6)
Home teams barely won half their games in the opening round (26-24) and went a ‘money-burning’ 19-28-3 ATS. The conference semifinals (second round) began Monday night and we guess it should come as no surprise that in each case, the visiting team won (it was no surprise to our Vegas Insider Ryan Taylor as he cashed both his Huge *5-Star selections). The Wizards jumped out to a 28-15 lead after the first quarter and then held on in the fourth quarter, as Bradley Beal scored 14 of his game-high 25 points in that final stanza. Beal’s backcourt partner Wall shot just 4 of 14 (13 points) but did add nine assists. Washington’s starting frontcourt was excellent, as Ariza had 22 points, Nene 15 & 6 and Gortat 12 & 15.

Roy Hibbert’s “vanishing act” was on full display, as his Game #7 effort versus Atlanta was quickly forgotten. He went scoreless and didn’t pull down a rebound in 18 minutes of action. George had 18-6-5, Hill 18, West 15 & 12 and Stephenson 12. The Pacers were an NBA-best 36-5 SU at home in the regular season but are now 2-3 at home in the playoffs. The Wizards win marks the team’s first second-round victory of any kind since 1982. Washington has now opened the 2014 postseason 4-0 on the road, after the franchise had gone 4-23 on the playoff road the previous 23 years.

Speaking of the team's 4-0 start on the road, how about head coach Randy Wittman? Wittman owns a 191-329 record in parts of eight seasons with Cleveland, Minnesota and Washington, with the 2014 playoffs being his first-ever postseason. So all he does is lead his team to a 4-0 start on the playoff road, joining only two other coaches in National Basketball Association history to do so, Pat Riley (1982 Lakers) and Mike Dunleavy (1991 Lakers). Raise your hand if you predicted that one!

In Monday’s second game, the Clippers one-upped the Wizards’ fast start, opening a 39-25 lead after one quarter in Oklahoma City against the Thunder. LA then scored 30 points in the second quarter and another 35 in the third, for 104 points, which allowed them to take a 26-point lead into the 4th quarter (those who just raised their hands, also likely called this one as well). Chris Paul nailed a career-high eight, three-pointers, leading the Clippers with 32 points (also 10 assists). Griffin had 23, as LA shot 54.9 percent as a team, including 14 of 29 on threes. Westbrook led the Thunder with 29 and Durant, just named league MVP on Tuesday, had 25. It marked the OKC’s worst home loss since the franchise moved from Seattle, changing from the Supersonics to the Thunder.

Two more games go Tuesday with home teams now 26-26 SU and 19-30-3 ATS. That’s just 38.8 percent or minus-14.0 net games (almost hard to believe). Maybe equally as surprising is the fact that both games flew over last night, as over bettors just keep going to the cashier’s window, with 34 overs and just 18 unders through 52 games (65.4%). The Nets play in Miami against the Heat in the first game tonight (7:05 ET on TNT) and then it’s the Trail Blazers in San Antonio to take on the Spurs at 9:35 ET (also on TNT). Miami is favored around 5-to-1 to win the series (although the Nets won all FOUR meetings this year) and the Heat are favored by eight points in Game #1 (total is 192). The Spurs are about a 4-to-1 favorite in the series and are favored by seven points in Game #1 (total is 206 1/2).

Eastern Conference Playoffs - Round #2

#709 WASHINGTON @ #710 INDIANA
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, TNT - Line: Pacers -4, Total: 185) - The Washington Wizards had no trouble going into Chicago and taking the first two games of their first-round series from the Bulls. The Wizards will try to turn the same trick when they visit the Indiana Pacers for Game #2 of the Eastern Conference semifinals on Wednesday. Washington dominated most of the night in Game #1 and ended up with a 102-96 victory as Trevor Ariza got hot early and Bradley Beal warmed up late.

The Pacers took the final two games of their first-round series from the Atlanta Hawks by changing up their rotation and making use of Chris Copeland while sitting Evan Turner and Luis Scola. Indiana decided to abandon that in Game #1 against the Wizards and did not insert Copeland into the game until the final minute when the outcome was already decided. Washington improved to 4-0 on the road in the playoffs with the victory and beat the Pacers at their own game by dominating the interior with a 53-36 rebounding advantage. “We know this is going to be a war and winning the boards is important to us,” Wizards coach Randy Wittman told reporters. “When we rebound, we can get out and run.”

•ABOUT THE WIZARDS (49-39 SU, 48-39-1 ATS): Ariza went 6-of-6 from 3-point range in Game #1, hitting five of those in the first half as Washington built up a 13-point halftime lead. Beal scored 14 of his 25 in the fourth quarter and came through at the line in the final seconds after some shaky free-throw shooting earlier in the contest. “We try to play a fast-paced game,” Ariza told reporters. “(Point guard) John (Wall) is a speed demon and they have to stop him from getting to the basket, so our shooters follow him and stay ready to shoot.” Wall went 4-of-14 from the field but finished with 13 points, nine assists and one turnover in Game #1.

•ABOUT THE PACERS (60-30 SU, 42-47-1 ATS): A big theme of the first round was the disappearance of All-Star Roy Hibbert, who needed a solid Game #7 just to get his averages up to 5.3 points and 3.7 rebounds in the seven-game set. Hibbert went back to being invisible in Game #1 on Monday, recording zero points and zero rebounds while committing five fouls in 18 minutes. Fellow All-Star Paul George struggled to 4-of-17 from the field and David West was 6-of-15 en route to 15 points and 12 rebounds. “We were really just out of rhythm,” George said. “Shots weren’t falling, shots were short. We just weren’t in sync to start this game off.”

•PREGAME NOTES: Wizards F Drew Gooden collected 12 points and 13 rebounds in Game #1 after totaling two points and three boards in the first round.... Indiana G George Hill has scored at least 14 points in five straight games.... Washington went 10-of-16 from 3-point range in Game #1.... The Pacers are 0-12 against the spread versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season.... The Wizards are 21-8 versus the spread (72.4%) in road games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting less than 24 free throws/game this season.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

-- In 1000 simulated games, WASHINGTON covered the spread 635 times, while INDIANA covered the spread 341 times. *EDGE against the spread =WASHINGTON. In 1000 simulated games, WASHINGTON won the game straight up 520 times, while INDIANA won 455 times. In 1000 simulated games, 525 games went over the total, while 460 games went under the total. *No EDGE.

-- In 1000 simulated games, WASHINGTON covered the first half line 574 times, while INDIANA covered the first half line 393 times. *EDGE against first half line =WASHINGTON. In 1000 simulated games, 493 games went over first half total, while 468 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--INDIANA is 34-29 against the spread versus WASHINGTON since 1996.
--INDIANA is 43-23 straight up against WASHINGTON since 1996.
--33 of 65 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--WASHINGTON is 34-30 versus the first half line when playing against INDIANA since 1996.
--33 of 65 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Indiana.
--Wizards are 4-9 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Indiana.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Wizards are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Wizards are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
--Wizards are 4-0 ATS L4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

--Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
--Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
--Pacers are 1-7 ATS L8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play Against - Home favorites (INDIANA) - good defensive team (41.5-43.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, after having won 2 of their last 3 games against opponent hot team - having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games.
(150-92 over the last 5 seasons.) (62.0%, +48.8 units. Rating = 2*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (108-138 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 4.7
The average score in these games was: Team 97.4, Opponent 99.4 (Average point differential = -2)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 91 (37.9% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (28-20).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (81-54).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (464-431).
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Western Conference Playoffs - Round #2

#711 LA CLIPPERS @ #712 OKLAHOMA CITY
(TV: 9:30 PM EST, TNT - Line: Thunder -5, Total: 214.5) - Oklahoma City star Kevin Durant was named MVP on Tuesday but he wasn’t close to being the best player on the court in Monday’s series-opening loss to the Los Angeles Clippers. Chris Paul had the best shooting game of his stellar career in Game #1 of the Western Conference semifinals and will try to stake the visiting Clippers to a 2-0 series lead in Wednesday’s contest. Paul made 8-of-9 3-point attempts and had 32 points and 10 assists in Los Angeles’ easy 122-105 victory.

Durant received 119 of the 125 first-place votes in balloting while claiming the first MVP award of his standout career. He scored 25 points in Game #1 but the Thunder were never in the game as the Clippers scored 39 first-quarter points and dominated the contest. “People want to split the road trip, but we can’t be satisfied with that,” Los Angeles guard Jamal Crawford told reporters. “We’re trying to get the next one as well.” The 17-point defeat was Oklahoma City’s worst home playoff loss since moving from Seattle.

•ABOUT THE CLIPPERS (62-28 SU, 49-40-1 ATS): The opener could arguably be classified as the best all-around performance of Paul’s NBA career. He had surpassed his career best for 3-pointers (five) in a game when he had six at halftime and displayed no signs of the hamstring pain that hindered his performance in the latter portion of the first round against Golden State. He was 12-of-14 from the field and joked afterward that nobody should be surprised before reversing course. “That’s what I do,” Paul told reporters. “That’s a lie. I don’t know. It was just one of those nights. I promise you it has to be a career high. This one will definitely go down in the record books for me. Don’t count on it for Game #2, I can tell you that.”

•ABOUT THE THUNDER (63-27 SU, 46-41-3 ATS): Oklahoma City didn’t look prepared for Game #1 and was exposed badly on the defensive end as Paul operated at will. The final score was only as close as 17 points because Los Angeles called off the assault, and Thunder coach Scott Brooks will be searching for a different approach in Game #2. “We have to do a better job and make some adjustments,” Brooks told reporters. “I believe in all of our guys – that’s the flexibility that we have as a group. “I’m confident in all of the guys and I’m confident that we’re all going to play much better.”

•PREGAME NOTES: Los Angeles set a franchise playoff record with 15 3-pointers in the opener.... Oklahoma City held a 47-31 rebounding advantage in Game #1.... The Clippers were 17-of-30 from the free-throw line in the opener as C DeAndre Jordan missed seven of his eight attempts.... Los Angeles is 16-5 against the spread (76.1%) in road games versus good free throw shooting teams - making more than 76% of their attempts this season.... The Thunder are 7-17 versus the spread (29.1%) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

-- In 1000 simulated games, LA CLIPPERS covered the spread 569 times, while OKLAHOMA CITY covered the spread 399 times. *EDGE against the spread =LA CLIPPERS. In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA CITY won the game straight up 533 times, while LA CLIPPERS won 450 times. In 1000 simulated games, 586 games went under the total, while 414 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.

-- In 1000 simulated games, LA CLIPPERS covered the first half line 548 times, while OKLAHOMA CITY covered the first half line 452 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 558 games went under first half total, while 403 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =UNDER.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--LA CLIPPERS is 35-32 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY since 1996.
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 43-25 straight up against LA CLIPPERS since 1996.
--38 of 67 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--OKLAHOMA CITY is 36-32 versus the first half line when playing against LA CLIPPERS since 1996.
--33 of 65 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Over is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings.
--Road team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Oklahoma City.
--Clippers are 14-5 ATS in the last 19 meetings in Oklahoma City.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Clippers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
--Over is 7-1 in Clippers last 8 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Over is 7-1 in Clippers last 8 when their opponent scored 100 points or more LG.

--Thunder are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Conference Semifinals games.
--Over is 4-0 in Thunder last 4 after scoring 100 points or more LG.
--Over is 4-0 in Thunder last 4 when their opponent allowed 100 points or more LG.

•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play Under - Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO) vs. an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO), revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points against opponent off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog.
(29-7 since 1996.) (80.6%, +21.3 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 215.8
The average score in these games was: Team 106.9, Opponent 103.1 (Total points scored = 210.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 23 (62.2% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (0-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (6-2).
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Game of the Day: Penguins at Rangers

Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Rangers (+101, 5)

With questioning his postseason performance becoming a rite of spring in some circles, Marc-Andre Fleury has quelled that talk by posting back-to-back shutouts to help the Pittsburgh Penguins seize a 2-1 advantage in its Eastern Conference series versus the New York Rangers. The Metropolitan Division champions look to push the Rangers to the brink of elimination when they visit Madison Square Garden for Game 4 on Wednesday. After recording 22 saves in a 3-0 triumph in Game 2 on Sunday, Fleury turned aside 35 shots the following day to register his franchise-best eighth career postseason shutout.

"I've won a lot of hockey games with Marc-Andre Fleury in net, during the regular season and when our team won a Stanley Cup in 2009," Penguins coach Dan Bylsma said after his team's 2-0 victory in Game 3. "I don't know who the doubters are and when the questions started about his play ... but I can tell you he wins hockey games for us." Traditionally a punchless power play goes a long way toward losing hockey games as well, with New York failing on all 13 opportunities with the man advantage in the series and 34 straight overall.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN, CBC, RDS

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Rangers anywhere from +101 to -110. The total opened at 5.

INJURY REPORT: Penguins - D Brooks Orpik (Out indefinitely, undisclosed). Rangers - LW Chris Kreider (Out indefinitely, hand).

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "The Pens are coming off back-to-back shutouts and look to go up 3-1 tonight. Sidney Crosby finally snapped his goalless streak in these playoffs which can only mean good things for the Pens. We are seeing good two-way action on this game as our players are not counting out the Rangers just yet." Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The Penguins have stifled the Rangers over the last two games, outscoring them 5-0 while seizing back control of this series. I'm not about to pronounce them series victors after just three games though. The Rangers were in a miserable 5-in-7 scheduling spot on Monday, but still carried the play for much of the game. I expect them to break through against Marc-Andre Fleury on Wednesday. The Blueshirts have opened as the home underdog in this one, but don't be surprised if roles reverse as puck drop approaches." Covers Expert Sean Murphy.

ABOUT THE PENGUINS: Sidney Crosby tucked the puck past Henrik Lundqvist on Monday, the first time the Pittsburgh captain had done so since helping Canada claim the gold against Sweden at the Sochi Olympics. His country's allegiance notwithstanding, Crosby snapped a 13-game postseason goal-scoring drought and also lightened the load of any undo pressure. "It's nice not having to answer (media questions) about it, to be honest," the Hart Trophy and Ted Lindsay Award finalist said. "It's one game. In the playoffs you have to be able to turn the page quickly. It’s nice to finally score."

ABOUT THE RANGERS: Coach Alain Vigneault took a shot at the league's powers-that-be for putting his club in position to play five games in seven nights, becoming the first team to do so in the postseason since 1989. "We were forced to play a stupid schedule, and I'm real proud of how our guys handled it," Vigneault said. The Rangers could receive a boost from the potential return of Chris Kreider, who has missed the last 19 games following surgery on his left hand. Vigneault said he would talk to the doctors before answering any questions on Kreider's availability.

TRENDS:

* Over is 8-2-1 in the last 11 meetings in New York.
* Penguins are 12-4 in the last 16 meetings.
* Rangers are 11-2 in their last 13 Wednesday games.
* Over is 11-5-1 in Penguins last 17 games playing on 1 days rest.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 54 percent of wagers on Covers Consensus are coming on the Rangers.
 

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STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
WEDNESDAY, MAY 7th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_______________________________________



***** Wednesday, 5/7/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
_____________________________________________________

MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #6
•Rangers 1B Moreland Shines On Mound: Mitch Moreland collected his fifth consecutive pinch hit Tuesday, an eighth-inning single, but that was the least interesting part of his evening. The veteran first baseman took the mound in the bottom of the eighth with the Rangers trailing the Rockies by 11 runs. He retired three consecutive batters, and Colorado completed a 12-1 win. Moreland became the sixth position player to pitch for the Rangers, making the seventh such appearance in franchise history. The last position player to take the mound for Texas was David Murphy on June 4, 2013, at Boston.

Moreland threw 15 pitches, 10 strikes, while getting Jordan Pacheco and Corey Dickerson to fly to right and Charlie Blackmon to hit a comebacker. A closer at Mississippi State, Moreland made only one other professional pitching appearance before Tuesday. In 2008 at low Class A Clinton, he pitched two scoreless innings in two games. Moreland hit 94 mph with his fastball Tuesday and ranged from 90-94 mph with the pitch. He said manager Ron Washington told him to throw only fastballs, but Moreland, trying to maximize his opportunity, said he threw a changeup to Blackmon. What Moreland didn't do was ice his arm afterward. "It's been 2008 since I pitched last," Moreland said, "so the way it's going, I think I'll have a little time to recover."

•RHP Leon Set For Long-Awaited Debut With Athletics: Right-hander Arnold Leon's long journey to the major leagues will end Wednesday when he is officially recalled from Triple-A Sacramento for the Oakland Athletics' doubleheader against the Seattle Mariners. Leon likely will be available out of the bullpen, but there is a chance he could start the second game Wednesday. Either way, it will be a special day for Leon, whose professional career began in 2006 with Saltillo of the Mexican League at the age of 17. Leon's parents, Marcella and Xico, will travel from Culiacan, Mexico, to attend the doubleheader. His wife, Cynthia, and 7-month-old son, Nayar Alexander, will make the trip from Sacramento for the game.

The A's purchased Leon's contract from Saltillo in 2008, and he spent six-plus seasons in their minor league system. He underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2010 and appeared in only three minor league games that season and five in 2011. "It's been a lot of time," Leon said. "I was expecting this from the beginning when I signed with the Oakland A's, and I didn't know it was going to take so long. With Tommy John surgery, I feel a lot of personal success being healthy again. I'm very proud."

A's manager Bob Melvin said either Leon or left-hander Drew Pomeranz would start the second game Wednesday. Pomeranz didn't make an appearance Tuesday, and Melvin hinted strongly before the game that the lefty start Game 2 on Wednesday if he didn't pitch Tuesday. Even if he doesn't start, Leon likely will see action in the second game because Pomeranz's arm isn't stretched out to go more than four or five innings. Leon went 2-1 with a 4.34 ERA in six starts with Sacramento this season. In 29 innings, he struck out 22 and walked 10.

•Pirates Win On Overturned Call: Starling Marte begrudgingly admitted after being part of a historic moment that he is softening his stance on the use of expanded instant replay in the major leagues this season. "I like it sometimes, I guess," the Pittsburgh Pirates left fielder said. "I like it this time." Thanks to an overturned call, Marte wound up scoring the winning run after tripling and racing home on a throwing error in the bottom of the ninth inning as the Pirates edged the San Francisco Giants 2-1 on Tuesday night. It was the first time a game-ending run resulted from a changed call, and it ended the Giants' six-game winning streak.

Marte hit a drive high off the 21-foot Clemente Wall in right field with two outs off Tim Hudson. Rookie second baseman Ehire Adrianza, serving as the cutoff man, took the throw from right fielder Hunter Pence and then threw wildly to third base. Marte initially hesitated and then raced home, but home plate Quinn Wolcott called him out. However, following a replay review of 1:14, it was ruled that catcher Buster Posey's tag was late and Marte was called safe. That set off a wild -- and odd -- celebration in front of the Pirates' dugout. The Pittsburgh players and coaches stood on the top step of the dugout waiting for the ruling to come to the umpiring crew from the central replay center in New York.

Posey watched all the replays once he got back to the clubhouse after the game and felt the out call should have been upheld because of inconclusive evidence. "I thought the best shots were from behind me, and from there you couldn't tell whether my glove hit his chest before his hand reached the plate or not," Posey said. "Plays like that usually stand the way they were called on the field." San Francisco manager Bruce Bochy thought the game was lost because of the wild throw rather than video review. "We shouldn't have thrown the ball to third base in the first place, we made a mistake there," Bochy said. "It's a hard call for the relay man because your instinct is to wheel and throw, but with two outs it's a dangerous play."

Marte and first baseman Ike Davis each had two hits for the Pirates. Left-handed reliever Tony Watson (3-0) pitched one scoreless inning for the win after starter Charlie Morton allowed only one unearned run and three hits in eight innings. Hudson was the tough-luck loser as he gave up two runs -- one earned -- on five hits in an 8 2/3-inning complete game. He had five strikeouts and one walk. Giants first baseman Brandon Belt had two hits. Both teams scored single runs in the second inning, Adrianza hitting a sacrifice fly in the top half and Marte scoring on catcher Tony Sanchez's soft groundout in the bottom half. Pirates manager Clint Hurdle admittedly is not a huge fan of replay, but he wasn't about to turn down the victory.

Betting Notes - Wednesday
•Hot Pitchers
-- Lincecum is 2-1, 3.32 in his last four starts.
-- Koehler is 2-0, 2.13 in his last four starts.
-- Strasburg is 1-0, 2.37 in his last three starts.
-- Peralta is 4-1, 2.34 in his last five starts. Arroyo is 1-0, 1.32 in his last two.
-- Wainwright is 4-1, 2.50 in his last five starts. Minor allowed two runs in six IP in his first start off DL.

-- Porcello is 3-0, 3.32 in his last three starts.
-- Ramos is 1-0, 1.23 in his last three starts, but lasted total of only 14.2 IP in those games. Norris is 2-0, 3.09 in his last two starts.

-- Shields is 3-0, 2.14 in his last three road starts.
-- Lee is 1-1, 2.40 in his last four starts. Buehrle is 5-1, 2.84 in six starts so far this season.
-- Peavy is 1-1, 2.03 in his last couple starts.
-- De La Rosa is 3-0, 2.50 in his last three starts. Lewis is 2-0, 3.38 in his last three outings.

•Cold Pitchers
-- Cole is 0-2, 3.81 in his last four starts.
-- Wheeler is 1-2, 7.63 in three road starts.
-- Haren has a 6.31 RA in his last four starts, but LA is 5-1 when he pitches.

-- Hernandez is 0-1, 6.00 in his last three starts, but is 2-0, 0.59 vs. Oakland in 2014. Ramirez is 0-3, 8.47 in his last four starts; he is 0-2, 8.00 vs. A's in '14.

-- Straily is 0-1, 6.52 in his last four starts. Leon is making MLB debut; he was 2-1, 4.34 in six AAA starts this season.
-- Peacock is 0-1, 6.19 in his last three starts.
-- Salazar is 1-3, 7.66 in his last five starts. Nolasco is 1-2, 6.10 in his last three outings.
-- Angels are 0-6 when Santiago starts (0-5, 5.01). Nuno is 0-0, 4.50 in his three starts this season.

-- Cashner is 0-3, 5.00 in his last three starts.
-- Leake is 0-2, 4.09 in his last three starts.
-- Danks is 0-2, 10.13 in his last couple starts. Wood is 0-2, 5.68 in his two road starts.

•Totals
-- Six of last eight Dodger games went over the total.
-- Under is 8-2-1 in Giants' last 11 road games. Five of last six Pittsburgh games went over the total.
-- Ten of last eleven Atlanta home games stayed under.
-- Ten of last fourteen Miami home games went over.
-- Under is 14-3 this season in games at Miller Park (1-3 last four).

-- Over is 11-3 in the Twins road games. Five of last six Cleveland home games stayed under.
-- Eight of last twelve Detroit games went over the total.
-- Over is 9-2-1 in last thirteen Baltimore road games.
-- Six of last nine Oakland games stayed under.
-- Over is 10-4-1 in Angels' home games, 1-3-1 in last five.

-- Six of last eight Toronto road games went over.
-- Six of last seven Cincinnati road games stayed under.
-- Last four White Sox games stayed under total.
-- Over is 9-4 in last thirteen Colorado games.
-- Seven of Royals' last nine games went over total.

•Hot Teams
-- Giants won ten of their last twelve games.
-- Marlins won ten of their last thirteen home games.
-- Diamondbacks won five of its last seven road games.

-- Twins won three of its last four games.
-- Rays/Orioles both won four of their last six games.
-- Tigers won nine of its last ten games.
-- Mariners won nine of their last eleven games.
-- Angels won six of their last nine home games.

-- Blue Jays won last three games, scoring 16 runs.
-- White Sox won last three games, all won by bullpen.
-- Red Sox won three of their last four games.
-- Rockies won ten of their last thirteen games.

•Cold Teams
-- Dodgers lost three of their last five games. Washington lost three of last four.
-- Braves lost seven of their last eight games. St Louis lost five of its last seven away games.
-- Pirates lost 14 of their last 20 games.
-- Mets lost five of their last six games.
-- Brewers lost five of their last seven games.

-- Indians lost eight of their last eleven games.
-- Astros lost six of their last seven games.
-- Athletics lost its last five home games.
-- Yankees lost five of their last seven games.

-- Phillies lost six of their last nine home games.
-- Reds lost its last four away games.
-- Cubs lost eight of their last 12 games.
-- Rangers lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Padres lost five of their last seven games. Kansas City lost five of its last six.

•Umpires Trends
-- LA-Wsh-- Last three Hoye games went over the total.
-- SF-Pitt-- Home side won five of six Davis games.
-- NY-Mia-- Underdogs won three of last five Hamari games.
-- StL-Atl-- Four of last five Tichenor games went over total.
-- Az-Mil-- Underdogs won four of five Vanover games.

-- Hst-Det-- Three of four Buckminster games went over total.
-- Blt-TB-- Four of five Fagan games stayed under; dogs won his last four.
-- Min-Cle-- Five of six Eddings games stayed under total.
-- NY-LA-- Under is 3-1-1 in last five Nelson games.
-- Sea-A's-- Over is 3-0-1 in last four LBarrett games. Favorites won Demuth's last four games behind plate.

-- Tor-Phil-- Five of seven HGibson games went over.
-- Cin-Bos-- Underdogs won last three Gorman games.
-- Chi-Chi-- Rookie ump Woodring has no trends yet.
-- Tex-Col-- Underdogs won four of five Barksdale games.
-- KC-SD-- Three of last four TBarrett games went over.

Diamond Trends - Wednesday
•COLORADO is 5-24 (-23.8 Units) against the money line versus an American League team with a team batting average of .265 or worse over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was COLORADO 3.4, OPPONENT 6.0.

•ST LOUIS is 10-1 UNDER (+8.8 Units) in road games versus poor fielding teams - (turning 0.8 or less DP's/game) this season.
The average score was ST LOUIS 3.0, OPPONENT 2.2.

•CINCINNATI is 12-2 (+12.8 Units) against the run line versus a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better this season.
The average score was CINCINNATI 4.6, OPPONENT 2.9.

•JOHN DANKS is 2-14 (-13.0 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DANKS 3.1, OPPONENT 5.9.

•JAKE PEAVY is 23-8 UNDER (+13.8 Units) in home games versus an National League team with a team batting average of .255 or worse since 1997.
The average score was PEAVY 3.9, OPPONENT 2.5.

•JOHN DANKS is 1-11 (-13.2 Units) against the run line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DANKS 3.0, OPPONENT 5.7.

Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play On - All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (ST LOUIS) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better on the season (National League), terrible speed team - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game on the season.
(42-14 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.0%, +28.6 units. Rating = 4*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +101.4
The average score in these games was: Team 4.8, Opponent 3.2 (Average run differential = +1.6)

The situation's record this season is: (1-1, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (33-12, +21.7 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (88-82, +2.9 units).

•Play On - All teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (SAN DIEGO) - bad National League offensive team (<=4.1 runs/game) against a very good American League starting pitcher (ERA<=3.50), with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games.
(39-11 since 1997.) (78.0%, +28.1 units. Rating = 4*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (32-18)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.9, money line price: +100
The average score in these games was: Team 3.8, Opponent 3 (Average run differential = +0.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 29 (58% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (2-0, +2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-7, +8.1 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (31-10, +20.1 units).

•Play Under - Road teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 (CINCINNATI) - below average National League hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA <=3.33), with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities.
(47-14 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.0%, +31.7 units. Rating = 4*)

The average total posted in these games was: 8.3, Money Line=-109.3
The average score in these games was: Team 2.9, Opponent 3.9 (Total runs scored = 6.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 38 (66.7% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (4-1, +3 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (25-13, +10.8 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (100-83, +9.2 units).
___________________________________________
 

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Baseball Crusher
Los Angeles Angels -130 over New York Yankees
(System Record: 23-0, won last 4 games)
Overall Record: 23-13
 

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Hockey Crusher
New York Rangers +100 over Pittsburgh Penguins
(Playoff Record: 13-5, lost last 2 games)
(Regular Season Record: 91-4)
Overall Record: 104-79-2
 
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Rob Vinciletti

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays (MLB) - 7:05 PM EDT Premium Pick

Pick: Total: 8.0/-115 Under

TRIPLE PERFECT MLB

TOTAL OF THE WEEK


On Wednesday the MLB Inter league totals system is on the under in the Philadelphia at Toronto game. Rotation numbers 973/974 at 7:05 eastern. The inter league venue switch and last nights results put into effect a solid totals system that pertains to the under as these to move from Philly to Toronto. We want to play the under for road dogs off a home favored loss and scored 5 or more runs, vs an opponent that is off a road dog win that scored 5 or more runs. These games have been dead unders with just omen game going over since 2004. The Phillies have gone under all 7 times vs lefties and all 3 times as a road dog from +100 to +125. The Phillies have also stayed under in 4 of 5 on the road off a 1 run home loss. Toronto has stayed under in 4 of 5 at home off a road dog win and scored 5 or more runs. The Pitching has Buehrle who has allowed just 5 earned runs in 22 innings in his last 3 starts vs the Phillies. C. Lee has started to catch fire and has been effective of late with a 1.71 era in his last 3 starts. Based on the systems angles and Pitching indicators we will recommend the under tonight.
 

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Basketball Crusher
Washington Wizards +4 over Indiana Pacers
(Playoff Record: 8-7-2, lost last game)
(Regular Season Record: 78-8)
Overall Record: 85-92-7
 
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Jesse Schule

New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Angels (MLB) - 10:05 PM EDT Premium Pick

Pick: Total: 8.5/-111 Over Play Title: Total Recall TERMINATOR
 

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Soccer Crusher
San Lorenzo + Cruzeiro OVER 2
This match is happening in Conmebol
(System Record: 565-20, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 565-479-84
 
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Baseball Crusher
Los Angeles Angels -130 over New York Yankees
(System Record: 23-0, won last 4 games)
Overall Record: 23-13

Rest of Crusher's Plays Today:

San Diego Padres -109 over KC Royals
Seattle Mariners - Game #1 -120 over Oakland A's
Milwaukee Brewers -140 over Arizona

Pittsburgh Penguins + New York Rangers OVER 5

Oklahoma City Thunder + Los Angeles Clippers OVER 214.5
Indiana Pacers + Washington Wizards UNDER 184
Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5 over LA Clipppers
 
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Today's MLB Picks

Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox

After dropping the first two games of the series at Wrigley, the Cubs look to pick up a win tonight at U.S. Cellular as they face a White Sox team that is 0-5 in John Danks' last 5 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The Cubs are the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Cubs favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+110). Here are all of today's picks.
WEDNESDAY, MAY 7
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST
Game 951-952: San Francisco at Pittsburgh (12:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.587; Pittsburgh (Cole) 14.954
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-135); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+115); Under
Game 953-954: NY Mets at Miami (12:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Wheeler) 17.018; Miami (Koehler) 15.961
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Miami (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+100); Over
Game 955-956: LA Dodgers at Washington (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Haren) 15.079; Washington (Strasburg) 16.676
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Washington (-135); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-135); Over
Game 957-958: Arizona at Milwaukee (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Arroyo) 14.192; Milwaukee (Peralta) 15.563
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-150); Under
Game 959-960: St. Louis at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 14.746; Atlanta (Minor) 15.659
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 6
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-130); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+110); Under
Game 961-962: Seattle at Oakland (3:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 15.872; Oakland (Straily) 14.952
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Seattle (-135); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-135); Under
Game 963-964: Houston at Detroit (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Peacock) 16.275; Detroit (Porcello) 15.799
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-250); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+200); Under
Game 965-966: Minnesota at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Nolasco) 14.932; Cleveland (Salazar) 13.990
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+140); Under
Game 967-968: Baltimore at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Norris) 15.344; Tampa Bay (Ramos) 14.161
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+120); Under
Game 969-970: NY Yankees at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Nuno) 15.395; LA Angels (Santiago) 14.357
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 8
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+115); Under
Game 971-972: Kansas City at San Diego (3:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Shields) 16.203; San Diego (Cashner) 14.371
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 7
Vegas Line: San Diego (-115); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-105); Over
Game 973-974: Philadelphia at Toronto (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Lee) 15.881; Toronto (Buehrle) 14.973
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Toronto (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-105); Under
Game 975-976: Cincinnati at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Leake) 14.711; Boston (Peavy) 16.491
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Boston (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-150); Under
Game 977-978: Colorado at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (De La Rosa) 15.960; Texas (Lewis) 15.112
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Texas (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+110); Over
Game 979-980: Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Wood) 15.872; White Sox (Danks) 14.732
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+110); Over
Game 981-982: Seattle at Oakland (6:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Ramirez) 14.622; Oakland (Pomeranz) 15.952
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
 
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Today's NBA Picks

LA Clippers at Oklahoma City

The Thunder look to bounce back from their 122-105 loss in Game 1 and come into tonight's contest with an 18-7-1 ATS record in their last 26 games following a double-digit loss at home. Oklahoma City is the pick (-5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Thunder favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-5 1/2). Here are all of today's playoff picks.
WEDNESDAY, MAY 7
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST
Game 709-710: Washington at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 120.294; Indiana 121.406
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 1; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 4 1/2; 184 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+4 1/2); Over
Game 711-712: LA Clippers at Oklahoma City (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 120.966; Oklahoma City 130.000
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 9; 207
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 5 1/2; 215
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-5 1/2); Under
 
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Today's NHL Picks

Pittsburgh at NY Rangers

The Rangers look to bounce back from their 2-0 loss in Game 3 and come into tonight's contest with a 5-1 record in their last 6 games after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. New York is the pick (-105) according to Dunkel, which has the Rangers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-105). Here are all of today's playoff picks.
WEDNESDAY, MAY 7
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST
Game 23-24: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 11.159; NY Rangers 12.084
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-115); 5
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-105); Over
 
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BigKatSports

MLB Total of the Night!!
Game
Wednesday May 07, 04:10 PM
(967) Baltimore Orioles
(968) Tampa Bay Rays
Pick
Over
Grade Result


2 Unit Play. Take #967/968 Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Over 7.5
 
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Art Aronson

AAA’s *Clippers/Thunder* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER! Perfect In This Series!
Game
Wednesday May 07, 06:35 PM
(711) Los Angeles Clippers
(712) Oklahoma City Thunder
Pick
Under

This is an 8* “TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER” on the “under” between the LA Clippers and the Oklahoma City Thunder. AAA Sports Has: UNDER 213.5 Worst Case Scenario Line: 214.5 As you can see, I jumped on an early line thinking that it would move the other way, however that wasn’t the case. The public was quick to jump on the “over” and you can now get 214.5 or even better. I still like this play at 213.5 as I expect each team to play with a much more concerted effort on the defensive end of the floor after the Game 1 shootout. LA jumped out to a quick start and never looked back in Game 1, pulling away for the 122-105 win. I had the Clippers in that one. I’m having a hard time getting a read on the spread in Game 2 though as I simply can’t see the home side allowing that type of offensive outburst to happen again. Note that the Clippers got eight 3-pointers made by point guard Chris Paul, and that’s a lot, three more than he’s ever made in any NBA game previous. Paul himself knows that type of scoring production is rare: “The next game, I might have 12 points, 10 points, maybe not even that many," he assessed yesterday. "I think I'm one of those people -- whatever it takes to win. I don't care. I'm never going to lead the league in scoring or anything like that. It's just whatever to try to win." In all, LA would hit an unreal 15 of 29 3-point attempts; it also shot 55 percent and committed just nine turnovers. The Thunder know they’re in for a fight, the Clippers are deep and talented: "When Pauls hitting 3s like that, it's tough," OKC forward Nick Collison said on Tuesday. "We can definitely make it more difficult on him than we did (Monday). I think that's where our focus is going to be, is how can we defend better?" I believe this sets up as a natural letdown spot for LA after that near perfect performance in the opener, and when coupled with how aggressive the Thunder will be on the defensive end, I expect this total to ultimately sneak below the posted number once the final horn sounds. Play on the “under”. AAA Sports
 
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BigKatSports

NBA Wednesday Night Total!!
Game
Wednesday May 07, 06:35 PM
(711) Los Angeles Clippers
(712) Oklahoma City Thunder
Pick
Over
Grade Result
Pending
Analysis

2 Unit Play. Take #711/712 Los Angeles Clippers vs Oklahoma City Thunder Over 214.5
 

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