Service Plays Wednesday 4/30/14

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Maddux

Brooklyn Nets +3.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Game of the Day: Nets at Raptors

Brooklyn Nets at Toronto Raptors (-3.5, 191)

Series tied 2-2.

Coming off one of the best wins in franchise history, the Toronto Raptors look to grab control of their Eastern Conference first-round series when they host the Brooklyn Nets in Game 5 on Wednesday. Toronto had not won a road playoff game since 2001 and was banged up, but it rallied to steal Game 4 in Brooklyn on Sunday by an 87-79 score, tying the series at two games apiece. The Raptors lost a 17-point lead but held the Nets scoreless over the final 4:58 to take back home-court advantage.

Perhaps the biggest key for Toronto was its ability to bottle up Brooklyn shooting guard Joe Johnson, who had seven points in 42 minutes after averaging 23.7 points in the first three games of the series. "Their defense was a big difference," Johnson told reporters after Game 4. "I mean, I looked out and there were three guys coming at me at once." DeMar DeRozan scored 24 points to lead the Raptors and is averaging 28 points over the last three contests.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, NBATV, WWOR (Brooklyn), TSN (Toronto)

LINE HISTORY: Toronto opened as high as a 4-point favorite but has been bet down as low as -3. The total opened 191.

INJURY REPORT: Nets - A. Anderson (Ques - Groin). Raptors - L. Fields (Ques. - Back)

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Toronto showed some grit in their comeback win in Game 4 after blowing an early 17-point lead. The Raptors where held to 20 points or less in three of four quarters, so they are also fortunate that they won that game. Brooklyn scored just 12 points in the fourth quarter, so the Nets should be ready in Game 5 from the opening tip."

ABOUT THE NETS: Brooklyn has a notable advantage in terms of experience, a factor many thought would eventually decide the series, but Toronto has outscored the Nets 88-66 in the fourth quarter over the last three games. "They're a younger team that doesn't have as much proper experience, but they ain't playing like it," guard Deron Williams said Sunday. Williams missed all five of his 3-point attempts in Game 4 as the Nets went 4-of-20 from outside the arc, falling to 25 percent for the series.

ABOUT THE RAPTORS: DeRozan has played through a hand injury for weeks, Kyle Lowry is limping through the series with knee issues and other Toronto players are banged up, but the club keeps coming. "We're really nicked up right now, so it was huge courage, really courageous by those guys," Toronto coach Dwane Casey said following Game 4. Among the others on the injured front is forward Amir Johnson, who left Game 4 with a knee injury before returning to polish off a 17-point effort.

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Toronto.
* Underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Road team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 51 percent of bets are on Toronto -3.5 while 53 percent is on Over 191.

 

[cracy]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 4/30/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_________________________________________


***** Wednesday, 4/30/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
_______________________________________________

NBA Playoff Journal (April 29)
Monday evening produced more woes for the home teams, which lost all three contests. Most should have been able to win on the Mavericks (plus-4.5), so we’ll call it 0-3 straight-up and 1-2 versus the number for the home teams (complete recap of the first round to-date, shortly). The Heat trailed 54-52 at the half last night, as the Bobcats were game, playing without Al Jefferson (left plantar fascia strain). However, the Heat pulled away with a 32-17 third quarter and that was all she wrote. Miami has now beaten Charlotte 20 straight times, 19 in a row since LBJ came to South Beach (he averaged 30-.0-8.0-6.0 for the series). The Bobcats have made the postseason just twice in franchise history (10-year span), getting swept each time in the first round.

The East’s No. 1 seed is officially in deep trouble! Tied at 2-all, the Pacers took a 21-20 lead in Game #5 into the second quarter but got blitzed by the Hawks, who made 13 of 16 shots, including 9 of 11 three-pointers. After outscoring Indiana 41-19, Atlanta led 61-40 at the half and the Pacers were ‘toast.’ Mike Scott scored 17 points for the game (all came in the second quarter), while Mack led all scorers with 20 (like Scott, he also came off the bench). The 38-44 Hawks lead 3-2 in the series despite playing without their best player (Al Horford was averaging 18.6 & 8.4 before being lost to an injury) and his replacement, Pero Antic, has contributed very little, as he’s averaging 3.4 & 3.4 this series.

Atlanta is now on the verge of becoming the 2nd-worst team in NBA history to win a best-of-seven playoff series (see Monday’s journal for details). The Hawks may not be able to get one more win (will get two cracks at it, Game #6 in Atlanta and a possible Game #7 at Indiana) but it’s hard to ignore the fact that the Pacers have never won a best-of-seven series when trailing 3-2, in team history (10 previous tries). Frank Vogel may not survive if Indiana loses this series and what do the Pacers do about Roy Hibbert’s ‘meltdown?’ He played VERY poorly the last month of the season but he’s taken that to an even lower level in the postseason, averaging just 4.8 PPG and 3.4 RPG this series, while shooting 10 of 32 (3.13%)!

The Spurs and Mavericks played a second-straight down-to-the-wire contest last night, but this time around the top-seeded Spurs came out on top. Ginobili has 23, Diaw 17 and Mills 10, giving those three bench players 50 of the team's 93 points (starters scored the other 43). Dirk had 19 for Dallas and has now failed to reach 20 points in ANY of the first four games of this series (only time that’s happened since his first postseason back in 2001). Vince Carter, Dallas’ Game #3 hero, shot just 2 of 9 with eight points plus Devin Harris, after averaging 18.5 PPG in the first two games of this series, has now scored just seven points the last two games, combined.

When all the dust had settled last night, home teams stood at 14-19 SU, giving them a hard-to-believe win percentage of just .424. Home teams are only 11-19-3 ATS or 36.7% (minus-9.9 net games!). Over bettors continue to wake up each morning with a smile on their face, as through 33 confrontations, there have been 22 overs and just 11 unders (a 67% win rate). “Zig-Zaggers” went 1-2 ATS last evening (got a half-point cover for the lone win on Dallas) but remain 14-8-2 ATS this postseason (plus-5.2 net games).

Three more series resume Tuesday night, although the NBA’s 2:00 ET announcement regarding Donald Sterling’s comments will likely dominate the headlines (stay tuned). Getting back to action on the court, the TNT doubleheader features Washington at Chicago at 8:05 ET (Bulls are favored by four points / total of 183) and Golden State at the Los Angeles Clippers (Clippers are favored by six points / total is 209). The NBA Network has Memphis at Oklahoma City (9:05 ET), where the Thunder are favored by seven points (total is 186 1/2).

Memphis/Oklahoma City and Golden State/LA Clippers series are tied two-all, and as always, the Game #5 winner will have “history on its side” to go on to win those respective series. We here at StatSystemsSports.net delivered once again (with our 6[SUP]th[/SUP] straight HUGE *5-Star Winner) with the Warriors in Game #4 but there is too much outside stuff going on for us to make a play on tonight’s Game #5. As for the Grizzlies and Thunder, after a 14-point win by Oklahoma City in Game #1, the last three games have all gone into overtime.

Washington leads Chicago 3-1 in the “other” game of the night and history tells us that just EIGHT teams have come back to win a best-of-seven series in NBA playoff history, under these circumstances. Washington will have a chance to do something it hasn’t done often, since losing in the 1979 finals to Seattle. It's been mostly “one-and-done” in the playoffs since that time for the Wizards (previously the Bullets), with two exceptions. They knocked off New Jersey 2-0 in the first round in 1982 and took out Chicago 4-2 in 2005 after dropping the first two games. The team’s other 10 playoff appearances (since 1979) have all resulted in first-round exits.
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Eastern Conference Playoffs - Round #1

#513 BROOKLYN @ #514 TORONTO
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, NBATV, WWOR Brooklyn, TSN Toronto - Line: Raptors -3.5, Total: 191) - Coming off one of the best wins in franchise history, the Toronto Raptors look to grab control of their Eastern Conference first-round series when they host the Brooklyn Nets in Game #5 on Wednesday. Toronto had not won a road playoff game since 2001 and was banged up, but it rallied to steal Game #4 in Brooklyn on Sunday by an 87-79 score, tying the series at two games apiece. The Raptors lost a 17-point lead but held the Nets scoreless over the final 4:58 to take back homecourt advantage.

Perhaps the biggest key for Toronto was its ability to bottle up Brooklyn shooting guard Joe Johnson, who had seven points in 42 minutes after averaging 23.7 points in the first three games of the series. "Their defense was a big difference," Johnson told reporters after Game #4. "I mean, I looked out and there were three guys coming at me at once." DeMar DeRozan scored 24 points to lead the Raptors and is averaging 28 points over the last three contests.

•ABOUT THE NETS (46-40 SU, 43-42-1 ATS): Brooklyn has a notable advantage in terms of experience, a factor many thought would eventually decide the series, but Toronto has outscored the Nets 88-66 in the fourth quarter over the last three games. "They're a younger team that doesn't have as much proper experience, but they ain't playing like it," guard Deron Williams said Sunday. Williams missed all five of his 3-point attempts in Game #4 as the Nets went 4-of-20 from outside the arc, falling to 25 percent for the series.

•ABOUT THE RAPTORS (50-36 SU, 48-34-4 ATS): DeRozan has played through a hand injury for weeks, Kyle Lowry is limping through the series with knee issues and other Toronto players are banged up, but the club keeps coming. "We're really nicked up right now, so it was huge courage, really courageous by those guys," Toronto coach Dwane Casey said following Game #4. Among the others on the injured front is forward Amir Johnson, who left Game #4 with a knee injury before returning to polish off a 17-point effort.

•PREGAME NOTES: Raptors F Terrence Ross, who averaged 10.9 points during the regular season, is 3-for-17 from the floor with a total of 10 points in the series.... Seven of the eight games between the teams during the regular season and playoffs have entered the fourth quarter with a point differential of five points or fewer.... Game #6 will be Friday night in Brooklyn.... The Raptors are 42-27 against the spread (60.8%) versus teams who attempt 18 or more three-point shots/game on the season this season.... The Nets are 15-3 versus the spread (83.3%) in road games when playing six or less games in 14 days over the last two seasons.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

-- In 1000 simulated games, TORONTO covered the spread 501 times, while BROOKLYN covered the spread 499 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, TORONTO won the game straight up 576 times, while BROOKLYN won 409 times. In 1000 simulated games, 714 games went over the total, while 263 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.

-- In 1000 simulated games, BROOKLYN covered the first half line 480 times, while TORONTO covered the first half line 479 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 629 games went over first half total, while 371 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--TORONTO is 39-33 against the spread versus BROOKLYN since 1996.
--BROOKLYN is 41-38 straight up against TORONTO since 1996.
--39 of 73 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--TORONTO is 37-37 versus the first half line when playing against BROOKLYN since 1996.
--47 of 75 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Road team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Toronto.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Nets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Wednesday games.
--Nets are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
--Nets are 4-0-1 ATS L5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

--Raptors are 0-3-2 ATS in their last 5 home games.
--Raptors are 0-4-2 ATS L6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
--Raptors are 0-3-1 ATS L4 home vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.

•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play Over - All teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (BROOKLYN) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good offensive teams (98-102 PPG), after a combined score of 175 points or less.
(95-46 since 1996.) (67.4%, +44.4 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 194.6
The average score in these games was: Team 101, Opponent 98.9 (Total points scored = 199.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 73 (52.5% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (7-5).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-7).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (31-18).
_______________________________

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Western Conference Playoffs - Round #1

#517 DALLAS @ #518 SAN ANTONIO
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, TNT, FSN Southwest San Antonio - Line: Spurs -6.5, Total: 198.5) - After a gutsy effort on the road in Game #4 of a first-round series with Dallas, the San Antonio Spurs can now take control at home in Game #5 on Wednesday. Five days after they were blown out in Game #2 and two days after losing on a buzzer-beater, the Spurs blew a 20-point lead on Monday before finishing strong for a 93-89 win that tied the series at 2-2. Boris Diaw hit a go-ahead 3-pointer in the last minute and Manu Ginobili had 23 points to help San Antonio regain homecourt advantage.

DeJuan Blair was the driving force behind Dallas' second-half rally on Monday night. However, the Mavericks were left to wonder what might have been if he was not ejected after kicking the head of Spurs center Tiago Splitter with just over three minutes left. The action, which came with Dallas clinging to an 83-82 lead, prompted the NBA to suspend Blair without pay for Game #5.

•ABOUT THE MAVERICKS (51-35 SU, 48-38-0 ATS): Blair's suspension deprives Dallas of one of its key reserves as the former Spur had given his club plenty of life off the bench when afforded the opportunity. He was 5-for-5 from the floor in producing 12 points and 11 boards in just 16 minutes of Game #4, and tallied eight points, seven rebounds and four steals in 14 minutes of the Game #2 rout in San Antonio. The Mavericks will hope for more second-unit scoring from Devin Harris, who has totaled seven points in the last two games of the series after averaging 18.5 in the first two.

•ABOUT THE SPURS (64-22 SU, 45-41-0 ATS): Diaw has been on the floor at or near the end of games, and has rewarded coach Gregg Popovich's trust in the veteran forward, hitting tiebreaking shots in the final minute in each of the last two contests. Diaw made 4-of-8 3-pointers in the two games in Dallas, a notable boost for a San Antonio squad that led the NBA in long-range shooting (39.7 percent) during the regular season but has slumped to 33.3 percent in the series. The Spurs' five starters combined to go 0-for-3 from beyond the arc in Game #4.

•PREGAME NOTES: Mavericks F Brandan Wright is 10-of-11 from the floor in the series.... San Antonio has 60 turnovers in the first four games, compared to 40 for Dallas.... Dallas F Dirk Nowitzki is averaging 16 points in the series but has yet to reach 20 after doing so in 23 of his previous 26 playoff games.... The Spurs are 15-28 against the spread (34.8%) versus good shooting teams - making more than 46% of their shots - 2nd half of the season over the last three seasons. The Mavericks are 14-2 versus the spread (87.5%) in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game this season.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

-- In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO covered the spread 514 times, while DALLAS covered the spread 486 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO won the game straight up 669 times, while DALLAS won 308 times. In 1000 simulated games, 677 games went over the total, while 323 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.

-- In 1000 simulated games, DALLAS covered the first half line 510 times, while SAN ANTONIO covered the first half line 490 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 611 games went over first half total, while 352 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SAN ANTONIO is 52-48 against the spread versus DALLAS since 1996.
--SAN ANTONIO is 64-41 straight up against DALLAS since 1996.
--53 of 103 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--SAN ANTONIO is 53-49 versus the first half line when playing against DALLAS since 1996.
--56 of 103 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Under is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in San Antonio.
--Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in San Antonio.

--Underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Mavericks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
--Over is 5-0 in Mavericks last 5 Wednesday games.
--Mavericks are 5-0 ATS L5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.

--Spurs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
--Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
--Spurs are 0-5 ATS L5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.

•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play Over - Road teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points (DALLAS) - an excellent FT shooting team (>=79%) against a good FT shooting team (76-79%), extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days, second half of the season.
(61-25 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.9%, +33.5 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 98.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.4, Opponent 51.4 (Total first half points scored = 100.7)

The situation's record this season is: (10-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (29-14).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (143-152).
_______________________________

#519 PORTLAND @ #520 HOUSTON
(TV: 9:30 PM EST, TNT, KGW Portland, CSN Houston - Line: Rockets -5.5, Total: 213.5) - The Portland Trail Blazers haven’t advanced out of the first round since 2000 and are one victory away from ending the drought when they visit the Houston Rockets in Wednesday’s Game #5 of the first-round Western Conference series. Portland has experienced six consecutive opening-round exits but holds a 3-1 lead and started off the series impressively by winning the first two games in Houston. Three of the first four games have been decided in overtime.

Rockets center Dwight Howard was highly disappointed after Sunday’s 123-120 overtime loss in Portland as some untimely mistakes again hurt Houston. “It’s like we’re giving games away, but we’ve got to stay positive right now,” Howard told reporters. “We can’t hang our heads and we can’t quit. We’re not going to allow negativity to seep into our minds.” Trail Blazers forward LaMarcus Aldridge has been the star of the series by averaging 35.3 points and 11.5 rebounds and is the first player to reach 140 or more points and 45 rebounds in his team’s first four playoff games since former Houston great Hakeem Olajuwon in 1988.

•ABOUT THE TRAIL BLAZERS (57-29 SU, 46-40-0 ATS): While Aldridge and standout point guard Damian Lillard have keyed Portland’s rise, unsung forward Nicolas Batum has stepped up with back-to-back big outings. Batum is averaging 25.5 points over the past two games after contributing an average of 10 over the first two contests. “He’s being aggressive going to the basket,” Trail Blazers coach Terry Stotts told reporters. “The last two games – the fourth quarter and overtime have been with small lineups – which open up driving opportunities and getting to the rim. When you play a spacing lineup, those opportunities are going to be there. Nic provides us with a lot of things.”

•ABOUT THE ROCKETS (55-31 SU, 42-42-2 ATS): The fact that Houston has wilted in some pressure situations during the series has brought up the subject of the team being pretty youthful. Players like Howard and forward Chandler Parsons aren’t willing to use that as an excuse. “Everybody starts from scratch (in the playoffs) and this is the first year we’ve been playing together but that doesn’t matter,” Parsons told reporters. “We’re a good team with the potential to be great, we’re just not reaching our ceiling, we’re not reaching our potential because of these little letdowns that we keep having. That’s definitely not an excuse. We should be better than this.”

•PREGAME NOTES: Houston G James Harden is averaging 27.5 points in the series but is making just 35 percent of his field-goal attempts.... Lillard was 5-of-7 from 3-point range in Game #4 and has made 14 in the series.... Rockets PG Patrick Beverley (knee) missed Tuesday’s practice with an illness but is expected to play.... The Trail Blazers are 9-0 versus the spread in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last three seasons.... Houston is 32-18 against the spread (64.0%) in home games after one or more consecutive overs over the last three seasons, and 16-7 ATS after allowing 100 points or more three straight games this season.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

-- In 1000 simulated games, PORTLAND covered the spread 502 times, while HOUSTON covered the spread 498 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, HOUSTON won the game straight up 624 times, while PORTLAND won 351 times. In 1000 simulated games, 542 games went over the total, while 458 games went under the total. *No EDGE.

-- In 1000 simulated games, HOUSTON covered the first half line 483 times, while PORTLAND covered the first half line 480 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 511 games went over first half total, while 489 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--PORTLAND is 37-36 against the spread versus HOUSTON since 1996.
--HOUSTON is 43-34 straight up against PORTLAND since 1996.
--37 of 73 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--HOUSTON is 45-29 versus the first half line when playing against PORTLAND since 1996.
--37 of 72 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Over is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings.
--Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Houston.

--Road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Underdog is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Trail Blazers are 5-0 ATS L5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
--Over is 6-0 in Trail Blazers last 6 games following a S.U. win.
--Over is 6-0 in Trail Blazers last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more.

--Rockets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Wednesday games.
--Over is 4-0 in Rockets last 4 Conference Quarterfinals games.
--Over is 4-0 in Rockets L4 when their opponent scored 100 points or more LG.

•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PORTLAND) - a terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season against a horrible defensive team (>=102 PPG) after 42+ games, after scoring 100 points or more 2 straight games.
(23-4 since 1996.) (85.2%, +18.6 units. Rating = 3*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (15-13)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.6
The average score in these games was: Team 114.5, Opponent 114.1 (Average point differential = +0.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 15 (55.6% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (1-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (7-1).
_______________________________

 

[tgunn11]

Baseball Crusher
Boston Red Sox -110 over Tampa Bay Rays
(System Record: 18-0, won last 5 games)
Overall Record: 18-12

 

[tgunn11]

Hockey Crusher
Los Angeles Kings +124 over San Jose Sharks
(Playoff Record: 8-3, wonlast game)
(Regular Season Record: 91-4)
Overall Record: 99-78-2

 

[tgunn11]

Basketball Crusher
Dallas Mavericks +6 over San Antonio Spurs
(Playoff Record: 5-4-1, lost last 2 games and a push)
(Regular Season Record: 78-8)
Overall Record: 83-90-6

 

[tgunn11]

Soccer Crusher
Union Espanola + Arsenal de Sarandi UNDER 2.5 (Conmebol) pending
Cerro Porteno + Cruzeiro OVER 2
This match is happening in Conmebol
(System Record: 562-20, won last game and a push)
Overall Record: 562-477-82

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Baseball Crusher
Boston Red Sox -110 over Tampa Bay Rays
(System Record: 18-0, won last 5 games)
Overall Record: 18-12

Here are the rest of his baseball, hockey and basketball plays for today...


Baseball
Miami Marlins +102 over Atlanta Braves
Philadelphia Phillies -113 over NY Mets
Colorado Rockies +109 over Arizona


Hockey
Minnesota Wild +121 over Colorado Avalanche
Minnesota Wild + Colorado Avalanche UNDER 5
Los Angeles Kings + San Jose Sharks UNDER 5


Basketball
Brooklyn Nets +3 over Toronto
Houston Rockets + Portland Trail Blazers OVER 214
Toronto Raptors + Brooklyn Nets OVER 190.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

StatFox Super Situations


PORTLAND at HOUSTON
Play Against - Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (HOUSTON) off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, playing with 2 days rest 71-34 since 1997. ( 67.6% | 33.6 units ) 3-2 this year. ( 60.0% | 0.8 units )


DALLAS at SAN ANTONIO
Play Against - Road underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (DALLAS) after beating the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games 106-24 since 1997. ( 81.5% | 50.7 units )


DALLAS at SAN ANTONIO
Play Under - All teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team, in April games 175-102 since 1997. ( 63.2% | 62.8 units ) 14-3 this year. ( 82.4% | 10.7 units )

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Miller is 2-0, 0.53 in his last three starts.
-- Colon is 1-1, 2.57 in his last couple starts.
-- Harang is 3-1, 0.85 in five starts this season.
-- Cingrani is 2-1, 3.12 in his last three starts.
-- Lyles is 2-0, 2.49 in his last four starts. Collmenter is 1-1, 3.00 in his last couple starts.
-- Hudson is 3-1, 2.43 in five starts this season.

-- Scherzer is 2-1, 2.45 in five starts this month.
-- Wilson is 3-1, 2.77 in his last four starts. McAllister is 3-1, 2.92 in his last four starts.
-- Chavez is 1-0, 3.24 in his last four starts.
-- Ventura is 2-1, 2.16 in four starts this season. Hutchison is 0-0, 2.08 in his last three starts.

-- Tillman is 3-1, 3.94 in four starts this season.
-- Greinke is 4-0, 2.45 in five starts this season. Gibson is 2-0, 0.63 in his two home starts this month.

Cold pitchers
-- Garza is 1-1, 5.76 in his last four starts.
-- Kendrick is 0-2, 5.70 in his last four starts.
-- Eovaldi is 1-1, 3.79 in three home starts.
-- Jackson is 1-2, 5.79 in his last four starts.
-- Erlin is 0-3, 8.44 in his last three starts.

-- Noesi is already on third AL team this month; he was 2-12, 5.82 in 18 starts for Seattle in 2012- this is his 22nd MLB start.
-- Elias is 0-1, 7.15 in his last two starts. Phelps is making first '14 start; he is 10-9, 4.73 in 23 career starts.
-- Archer is 0-1, 5.50 in three road starts this season. Doubront is 1-3, 8.20 in his last four starts.
-- Ross is 0-1, 7.15 in his last couple starts.

-- Morton is 0-3, 6.16 in his last three starts.
-- Oberholzer is 0-2, 8.68 in two home starts this season. Zimmerman is 0-1, 4.85 in his last two starts.

Pitchers allowing runs in first inning:
-- Garza 1-5; Miller 0-5
-- Colon 1-5; Kendrick 1-5
-- Harang 0-5; Eovaldi 1-5
-- Jackson 2-5; Cingrani 3-5
-- Lyles 2-5; Collmenter 0-3
-- Erlin 2-4; Hudson 0-5

-- Scherzer 2-5; Noesi 0-0
-- Elias 0-5; Phelps 0-0
-- McAllister 2-5; Wilson 1-5
-- Archer 3-5; Doubrant 2-5
-- Chavez 2-5; Ross 1-5
-- Hutchison 1-5; Ventura 2-4

-- Morton 0-5; Tillman 0-5
-- Zimmerman 1-5; Oberholzer 2-5
-- Greinke 0-5; Gibson 2-4

Totals
-- Over is 5-2-1 in Mets' last eight road games.
-- Six of last eight Atlanta games stayed under.
-- Five of last six Cub road games stayed under.
-- Eight of last nine Milwaukee road games went over.
-- Over is 6-3-1 in last ten Arizona home games.
-- Nine of last eleven San Diego road games stayed under.

-- Seven of last ten Bronx home games stayed under.
-- Eight of last eleven Boston games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight White Sox games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Oakland road games went over total.
-- Seven of last eight Toronto games went over the total.
-- Nine of ten Angel home games went over the total.

-- Five of last six Pittsburgh games stayed under.
-- Seven of last eight Washington road games went over.
-- Six of last seven Minnesota games went over.

Hot teams
-- Mets won seven of their last nine games; Phillies won six of last nine. .
-- Braves won 12 of their last 16 games.
-- Cincinnati won four of its last five home games.
-- Brewers won nine of their last eleven games.
-- Rockies won ten of their last fourteen games.
-- Giants won five of their last six games. San Diego is 7-2 in game following its last nine losses.

-- Bronx won six of its last eight home games.
-- Red Sox won three of their last four games.
-- Texas won seven of its last ten home games, but lost last two.
-- Detroit won three of its last four games. White Sox are 4-0 in game following their last four losses.
-- Kansas City won seven of its ten home games.
-- Angels won four of their last five home games.

-- Orioles are 7-1 in game following their last eight losses.
-- Washington won three of its last four games.
-- Minnesota won six of its last eight home games.

Cold teams
-- Marlins lost five of last seven games, but are 9-4 at home.
-- Cubs lost seven of their last eight road games.
-- Cardinals lost seven of their last ten games.
-- Arizona lost 12 of its last 13 home games.

-- Mariners lost six of their last seven away games.
-- Tampa Bay lost seven of its last eight away games.
-- Blue Jays lost five of their last six games.
-- Cleveland lost its last six road games.

-- Pirates lost five of their last six games.
-- Astros lost seven of their last nine home games.
-- Dodgers lost five of their last seven games.

Umpires
-- Mil-StL-- Three of four Bellino games went over total.
-- NY-Phil-- All three O'Nora games stayed under total.
-- Atl-Mia-- Last three Barber games went over the total.
-- Chi-Cin-- Three of last four Drake games went over.
-- Col-Az-- Home side won four of last five Kulpa games.
-- SD-SF-- Favorites won all four Ripperger games.

-- Det-Chi-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Wendelstedt games.
-- Sea-NY-- Favorites won all five Miller games.
-- Cle-LAA-- Underdogs won three of four Morales games.
-- TB-Bos-- Underdogs won four of five Bucknor games.
-- A's-Tex-- Underdogs won four of five Diaz games.
-- Tor-KC-- All four Wegner games stayed under total.

-- Wsh-Hst-- Underdogs won four of five Schrieber games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Bonus Play WED: Dodgers -150

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Today's MLB Picks

Oakland at Texas

The A's go for the road sweep today against their division rival and come into the contest with a 5-0 record in Jesse Chavez' last 5 starts as a favorite. Oakland is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the A's favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-115). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, APRIL 30 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: Milwaukee at St. Louis (1:45 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Garza) 14.368; St. Louis (Miller) 16.209 Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2; 6 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-140); 7 Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-140); Under

Game 903-904: NY Mets at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Colon) 14.836; Philadelphia (Kendrick) 16.483 Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-115); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-105); Over

Game 905-906: Atlanta at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Harang) 15.946; Miami (Eovaldi) 14.533 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Atlanta (-120); 7 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-120); Under

Game 907-908: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Jackson) 15.246; Cincinnati (Cingrani) 14.215 Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-190); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+170); Over

Game 909-910 Colorado at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Lyles) 14.382; Arizona (Collmenter) 15.274 Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Arizona (-120); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-120); Under

Game 911-912: San Diego at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Erlin) 15.119; San Francisco (Cain) 14.298 Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 8 Vegas Line: San Francisco (-175); 7 Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+155); Over

Game 913-914: Detroit at Chicago White Sox (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Scherzer) 14.324; White Sox (Noesi) 15.201 Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 9 1/2 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 915-916: Seattle at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Elias) 13.205; NY Yankees (Phelps) 14.696 Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-140); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-140); Under

Game 917-918: Cleveland at LA Angels (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (McAllister) 14.937; LA Angels (Wilson) 16.646 Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: LA Angels (-145); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-145); Over

Game 919-920: Tampa Bay at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Archer) 15.119; Boston (Doubront) 13.995 Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 7 1/2 Vegas Line: Boston (-115); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-105); Under

Game 921-922: Oakland at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Chavez) 16.459; Texas (Ross) 15.159 Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Oakland (-115); 8 Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-115); Over

Game 923-924: Toronto at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Hutchison) 15.832; Kansas City (Ventura) 14.629 Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 7 Vegas Line: Kansas City (-115); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-105); Under

Game 925-926: Pittsburgh at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Morton) 14.132; Baltimore (Tillman) 15.713 Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Baltimore (-135); 8 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-135); Under

Game 927-928: LA Dodgers at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Greinke) 16.390; Minnesota (Gibson) 14.819 Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-165); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-165); Over

Game 929-930: Washington at Houston (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Zimmermann) 13.920; Houston (Oberholtzer) 15.066 Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Washington (-155); 8 Dunkel Pick: Houston (+133); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Today's NBA Picks

Dallas at San Antonio

The venue shifts back to the Spurs home court tonight for the pivotal Game 5 in the series and has the Mavericks coming in with a 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 games at San Antonio. Dallas is the pick (+6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by only 3. Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+6 1/2). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

WEDNESDAY, APRIL 30 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 513-514: Brooklyn at Toronto (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Brooklyn 118.910; Toronto 124.991 Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 6; 186 Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 3; 191 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-3); Under

Game 517-518: Dallas at San Antonio (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 124.735; San Antonio 127.919 Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 3; 205 Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 6 1/2; 198 Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+6 1/2); Over

Game 519-520: Portland at Houston (9:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Portland 120.715; Houston 124.401 Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 3 1/2; 209 Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 5 1/2; 214 Dunkel Pick: Portland (+5 1/2); Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Today's NHL Picks

Los Angeles at San Jose

The Kings forced a Game 7 with a 4-1 win over the Sharks on Monday and head back to San Jose tonight carrying a 14-4 record in their last 18 games following a victory. Los Angeles is the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Kings favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+120). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

WEDNESDAY, APRIL 30 Time Posted: 8:30 a.m. EST

Game 83-84: Los Angeles at San Jose (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 12.483; San Jose 11.591 Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1; 6 Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-140); 5 Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+120); Over

Game 87-88: Philadelphia at NY Rangers (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 10.587; NY Rangers 11.944 Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1 1/2; 4 Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-140); 5 Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-140); Under

Game 89-90: Minnesota at Colorado (9:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 10.494; Colorado 12.068 Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1 1/2; 4 Vegas Line & Total: Colorado (-140); 5 Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-140); Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA

Wednesday, April 30

All four Toronto-Brooklyn games were decided by 8 or less points, as teams went 1-1 in each arena. DeRozan scored 30-30-24 points in last three games, but is just 27-76 from floor in series. Toronto was +6 last game in turnovers; they're -19 (64-45) in series. Nets are 22-88 from arc in series. Nets lost six of last nine games, are 19-24 vs spread on road this season. Over is 26-17 in Toronto home games this season.

Dallas lost 11 of last 13 games vs Spurs, but they've covered all four in this series and last five games overall; Nowitzki/Ellis were combined 13-39 from floor in Game 4 loss, when Spurs outscored Dallas 32-13 in second quarter. Spurs' bench outscored Maverick subs 50-30 last game, now Dallas' big man sub Blair is suspended after kicking Splitter in last game. Over is 28-15 in Maverick road games this season.

Three of four Rocket-Blazer games went OT; Aldridge scored 29+ in all three Portland wins, was held to 23 in the loss. Portland won 11 of last 14 games; they're 27-16 vs spread on road this season- over is 26-17, as last 11 series games also went over, helped by OTs in series. Harden is 36-103 from floor this series, not good for Rockets, who covered once in their last five games as a favorite. Over is 24-18-1 in Rocket home tilts.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL

Wednesday, April 30

First back/back of playoffs, as Flyers staved off elimination last night, scoring three times in second period. Rangers outshot Philly 71-53 in first period in this series; they're 24-21 at home this season; over is 2-0-1 in last three home games. Flyers lost seven of ten games vs Rangers this season; over is 3-1-2 in this series. Rangers are 3-28 on power play in series, 0-16 in last four games, 3-15 at home; Philly is 6-19 on power play, 4-10 in last three games, 3-10 on road. Over is 10-1-2 in last thirteen Philly games. New York scored two of less goals in three series losses, 4+ in its wins.

Avalanche scored 13 goals in three series home games, only three in losing three road games. Home side won all six Minnesota-Colorado games; home teams are 20-4 in western half of the NHL, with two losses in OT. Colorado is 2-22 when it has man advantage, Minnesota 3-18. Wild is 20-24 on road this season; seven of their last nine games went over total, inclduing all three series games in this building. Colorado lost its last five games; their last road win was on April 10 in Vancouver. League-wide, over is 27-10-8 in playoffs so far.

After scoring 17 goals in winning first three games of series, San Jose scored four in losing last three. Kings won last three games 6-3/3-0/4-1, now huge amount of pressure on Sharks to win Game 7 in Shark Tank, avoiding momumental gag job- theyr'e 32-12 at home this season. LA scored 19 goals in previous eight games before scoring 13 in winning Games 4-6. Kings are 24-20 on road this season- over is 5-1-1 in their last seven games. Over is 4-1-1 in this series. Sharks are 4-26 on power play in series, 2-14 at home. Kings are 5-17, 1-4 on road.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BOB BALFE

BOSTON REDSOX/TAMPA RAYS - OVER 8.5
(Doubront/Archer)

Doubront has been awful for the Red Sox this year and it is about that time the Rays start hitting again. The Rays have not hit left handed pitching well this year, but Doubront doesn’t seem to have his best stuff going right now. The Rays also have a suspect bullpen and Archer has not looked hot himself. Both teams could use some offensive help right now. I don’t think this game sails over, but none of these pitchers are in position to throw a gem right now. Take the Over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

PAUL LEINER

100* Nets +3.5
100* Royals -140
50* Over 7 - Cardinals/Brewers