STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 22nd 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Wednesday, 10/22/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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World Series - Best of 7 - Game #2
#903 SAN FRANCISCO @ #904 KANSAS CITY
TV: 8:07 PM EST, FOX Sports
Line: Royals -110, Total: 7 -125
Hunter Pence has slammed his first homer of the postseason and now looks to help the San Francisco Giants take a 2-0 series lead when they visit the Kansas City Royals in Game #2 of the World Series on Wednesday. Pence hit a two-run homer in a three-run first inning to fuel the offense in Game 1 and reached base four times as San Francisco rolled to a 7-1 victory. “He’s a tireless worker and he’s the lowest maintenance player I’ve ever had,” Giants manager Bruce Bochy said afterward.
San Francisco starter Jake Peavy has seen a lot of the Royals while pitching in the American League and possesses a 5-7 record and 4.97 ERA in 14 assignments. “They’re still the same guys, just a little more refined and obviously a lot more confident than they were at any point that I faced them in Chicago,” Peavy said in his Tuesday press conference. “And they were formidable, even when we faced them – the Chicago White Sox didn’t have much success here.” Royals catcher Salvador Perez homered in the seventh of the opener for the lone run allowed by Giants left-hander Madison Bumgarner.
PITCHING MATCHUP
•Giants RH Jake Peavy (8-13, 3.65 ERA, WHIP: 1.276) - Peavy is making his second World Series start as he made one for Boston last season and gave up two runs in four innings. He hasn’t made it through six innings in either start this postseason but has allowed just six hits in 9 2/3 innings while continuing to fit in well with his new team. “With his experiences and knowledge, he really has, I think, just ramped up the intensity and the focus on these guys,” Bochy said. “Jake, as you know, when he pitches, he’s all in.” (PEAVY is 5-7 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 4.97 and a WHIP of 1.380. His team's record is 6-8 -4.2 units in these starts. The UNDER is 5-9 -5.2 units).
--PEAVY is 17-31 (-17.7 Units) against the money line in road games ersus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was PEAVY 4.0, OPPONENT 4.7.
--PEAVY is 21-11 UNDER (+8.3 Units) in all games this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was PEAVY 3.5, OPPONENT 3.6.
--PEAVY is 20-9 UNDER (+9.9 Units) in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was PEAVY 3.4, OPPONENT 3.5.
--PEAVY is 91-58 UNDER (+25.3 Units) after a win since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was PEAVY 4.1, OPPONENT 3.6.
•Royals RH Yordano Ventura (13-10, 3.25 ERA, WHIP: 1.289) - Ventura has been placed in the No. 2 role by manager Ned Yost, who has no concern over how the 23-year-old rookie will handle the spotlight. “He’s a special kid because as young as he is and as good as his stuff is, his composure is off the charts and his competitiveness is off the charts,” Yost said in his Tuesday press conference. “So you combine all those things together and you’ve got a pretty special guy that’s going to step on that mound.” Ventura last pitched October 11th when he worked 5 2/3 innings in a no-decision against Baltimore.
--VENTURA is 8-0 (+8.7 Units) against the money line versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was VENTURA 4.8, OPPONENT 2.5.
--VENTURA is 11-3 UNDER (+7.6 Units) when the money line is -100 to -150 this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was VENTURA 3.3, OPPONENT 2.8.
•PREGAME NOTES: Giants 3B Pablo Sandoval has reached base in 24 consecutive postseason games, tied for fourth-longest streak behind Miguel Cabrera (31, 2011-13), Chase Utley (27, 2007-09) and Boog Powell (25, 1966-71).... Kansas City DH Billy Butler is 14-for-33 with three homers and eight RBIs against Peavy.... San Francisco leadoff hitter Gregor Blanco is 4-for-11 with three walks and five runs scored over the last three games.... While it's been the Kansas City bullpen that has earned plenty of attention this October, San Francisco's relievers have been the more effective bunch with a 1.69 ERA in the postseason and 12 2-3 scoreless innings over the last four games.
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•RESEARCH NOTES
--Yordano Ventura's fastball averaged 96.8 MPH in the regular season, highest among qualified starters. The Giants had a .271 batting average against fastballs with a velocity of at least 95 MPH this season, highest in the NL. However, Brandon Crawford hit .189 against fastballs of at least 95 MPH in the regular season.
--Jake Peavy allowed a .231 batting average on pitches on the outer half of the plate or further away in the regular season, below league average. Billy Butler is 3-of-16 with three strikeouts against pitches on the outer half of the plate this postseason. Lorenzo Cain is 7-of-15 with two doubles against pitches on the outer half or further away in the postseason, with only a 16.7 percent miss rate.
--Yordano Ventura allowed a .389 slugging percentage in at-bats to end on a fastball along the horizontal-middle-third of the zone, the fifth-lowest rate among qualified AL pitchers this season. The Giants slugged just .360 in at-bats ending in that zone on a pitch of at least 95 mph during the regular season, the fourth-lowest rate in baseball.
--In the regular season, Hunter Pence slugged .548 in at-bats to end in an offspeed pitch following another offspeed pitch, the fourth-best rate in baseball.
--Jake Peavy allowed a .197 batting average against his curveball in the regular season, below the league average among qualified starters. The Royals have a .593 OPS in plate appearances ending with a curveball in the postseason, and they had a .503 OPS against the pitch in the regular season, lowest in the AL.
•KEY STATS
--KANSAS CITY is 13-2 UNDER (+10.7 Units) revenging a home loss versus opponent of 6 runs or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was KANSAS CITY 2.2, OPPONENT 3.2.
--KANSAS CITY is 22-8 UNDER (+12.6 Units) after a loss by 4 runs or more this season.
The average score was KANSAS CITY 2.9, OPPONENT 3.4.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--Games Over The Last 3 Seasons: KANSAS CITY is 3-1 (+2.0 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons. 2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons Over= -0.1 Units, Under= -0.6 Units.
--Giants are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings.
--Giants are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings in Kansas City.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Under is 5-0 in SF last 5 during game 2 of a series.
--Under is 4-1 in SF last 5 playoff games as an underdog.
--Under is 49-24-6 in SF last 79 interleague games as an underdog.
--Under is 9-2 in KC last 11 Wednesday games.
--Under is 22-6-2 in KC last 30 games following a loss.
--Under is 59-29-5 in KC last 93 during game 2 of a series.
•UMPIRE TRENDS - Eric Cooper
--Royals are 5-0 in their last 5 Wednesday games with Cooper behind home plate.
--Home team is 5-1 in Coopers last 6 games behind home plate.
--Road team is 5-1 in Coopers last 6 Wednesday games behind home plate vs. San Francisco.
--Under is 4-1-1 in Coopers last 6 interleague games behind home plate.
--Under is 4-1 in Coopers last 5 Wednesday games behind home plate vs. Kansas City.
--Road team is 7-2 in Coopers last 9 games behind home plate vs. Kansas City.
--Giants are 6-2 in their last 8 Wednesday games with Cooper behind home plate.
--Road team is 5-2 in Coopers last 7 games behind home plate vs. San Francisco.
--Under is 11-5-2 in Coopers last 18 games behind home plate.
--Home team is 37-17 in Coopers last 54 Wednesday games behind home plate.
--Royals are 7-20 in their last 27 games with Cooper behind home plate.
--Giants are 0-4 in their last 4 games with Cooper behind home plate.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Under - Home teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (KANSAS CITY) - very bad American League offensive team (<=4.2 runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA<=3.33), with a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better on the season.
(102-55 over the last 5 seasons.) (65.0%, +39.8 units. Rating = 2*)
The average total posted in these games was: 7.7, Money Line=-113
The average score in these games was: Team 3.7, Opponent 3.6 (Total runs scored = 7.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 78 (52.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (24-18, +2.9 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (91-50, +34.7 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (119-71, +38.5 units).
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