STATSYSTEMS SPORTS AL PITCHING REPORT
TUESDAY, JULY 29TH 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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#915 LA ANGELS @ #916 BALTIMORE - 7:05 PM
•Angels RH Jered Weaver (11-6, 3.36 ERA, WHIP: 1.120) - Weaver extended his winning streak to four games Wednesday against Baltimore, allowing two runs and six hits over eight strong innings. The 31-year-old has not lost since June 16 at Cleveland, going 4-0 over seven starts while yielding fewer than three runs six times in that span. Weaver is 7-4 with a 2.97 ERA in 11 career outings versus the Orioles.
--KEY STAT: WEAVER is 14-3 (+10.4 Units) against the money line versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was WEAVER 5.0, OPPONENT 3.3.
--WEAVER is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was WEAVER 3.3, OPPONENT 2.8.
--WEAVER is 38-15 UNDER (+20.9 Units) versus an American League team with a batting average of .260 or worse in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was WEAVER 3.7, OPPONENT 3.2.
--WEAVER is 39-12 UNDER (+25.6 Units) versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was WEAVER 3.6, OPPONENT 3.1.
•Orioles RH Chris Tillman (7-5, 3.92 ERA, WHIP: 1.343) - Tillman was forced to settle for a no-decision in Wednesday's showdown with Weaver despite allowing just one run and five hits over six innings. The 26-year-old Anaheim native is 0-1 in his last five starts, although he yielded three earned runs or fewer in each contest. Tillman is only 1-5 at home this season but has pitched extremely well against Los Angeles in his career, going 2-0 with a 1.74 ERA in three outings.
--KEY STAT: TILLMAN is 33-19 (+15.4 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was TILLMAN 4.9, OPPONENT 3.4.
--TILLMAN is 12-2 UNDER (+9.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was TILLMAN 4.4, OPPONENT 2.7.
--TILLMAN is 14-3 UNDER (+10.7 Units) in home games versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was TILLMAN 3.4, OPPONENT 3.3.
#917 SEATTLE @ #918 CLEVELAND - 7:05 PM
•Mariners RH Hisashi Iwakuma (8-5, 3.09 ERA, WHIP: 0.994) - Iwakuma allowed four runs - all in the third inning - and seven hits while striking out five in seven frames of a 4-0 loss to Baltimore on Thursday. The 33-year-old Japan native has not walked a batter in 35 2/3 frames covering a club-record five starts and the team record for innings is 38, set by Cliff Lee in 2010. Iwakuma, who has 33 strikeouts during that span and leads the majors with a 11:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, hasn't recorded a decision with a 4.02 ERA in three games (two starts) against Cleveland.
--KEY STAT: IWAKUMA is 18-7 (+14.1 Units) against the money line versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was IWAKUMA 4.4, OPPONENT 2.6.
--IWAKUMA is 20-5 against the run line (+16.9 Units) versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was IWAKUMA 4.4, OPPONENT 2.6.
•Indians RH Trevor Bauer (4-5, 3.93 ERA, WHIP: 1.394) - Bauer yielded three runs and struck out seven in six innings of a 3-1 loss at Minnesota on Wednesday. "He threw the ball well," catcher Roberto Perez told reporters of the 23-year-old California native. "Some of their hitters just found the hole. I don't think they hit the ball hard.... You can't do anything about it when you make pitches." Bauer, 3-1 with a 2.82 ERA in seven home starts this season, lost 3-2 in Seattle on June 27 when he permitted three runs and nine hits in 6 1/3 frames.
#919 CHI WHITE SOX @ #920 DETROIT - 7:05 PM
•White Sox LH Jose Quintana (5-7, 3.15 ERA, WHIP: 1.195) - Quintana has allowed three or fewer earned runs in 18 of his 21 starts in 2014, including each of his last seven outings. He has a 1.70 ERA and has racked up 49 strikeouts in 47 2/3 innings over that span, though he has only two decisions -- both wins. Quintana is 2-1 with a 3.26 ERA in six career starts against Detroit, including a pair of quality starts earlier this season.
--KEY STAT: QUINTANA is 12-2 UNDER (+9.7 Units) versus American League teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was QUINTANA 3.0, OPPONENT 3.4.
--QUINTANA is 15-3 UNDER (+11.6 Units) versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was QUINTANA 3.1, OPPONENT 3.3.
•Tigers RH Anibal Sanchez (7-4, 3.45 ERA, WHIP: 1.094) - Sanchez has posted only one quality start in four outings this month, alternating wins and losses. He was fortunate to get abundant run support last time out, winning at Arizona despite allowing five runs and 11 hits over 6 1/3 innings. Sanchez is 2-3 with a 3.30 ERA in five career starts against the White Sox, and he took the loss despite a quality start the first time he faced them this season.
--KEY STAT: SANCHEZ is 13-4 OVER (+9.1 Units) in home games versus an American League team with a team batting average of .260 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SANCHEZ 5.4, OPPONENT 4.5.
--SANCHEZ is 15-4 OVER (+10.7 Units) after a loss over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SANCHEZ 6.1, OPPONENT 4.0.
#921 TORONTO @ #922 BOSTON - 7:10 PM
•Blue Jays RH Marcus Stroman (6-2, 3.21 ERA, WHIP: 1.100) - While Stroman has provided a big boost to the Blue Jays' chances down the stretch, most of his quality work has been done at home. Meanwhile, he has allowed seven earned runs in 14 1/3 innings as a starter on the road, including five runs in 3 2/3 frames at the Los Angeles Angels in his last appearance away from home on July 9. Overall, the former first-round pick is 5-2 with a 2.21 ERA as a starter.
•Red Sox RH Rubby De La Rosa (3-3, 3.54 ERA, WHIP: 1.221) - De La Rosa was no match for Stroman in their encounter on Thursday, giving up seven runs (six earned) in four innings for his worst start in the big leagues. He has just six strikeouts against six walks in 16 innings over his last three outings. The 25-year-old is 3-0 with a 1.38 ERA at home.
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#923 NY YANKEES @ #924 TEXAS - 8:05 PM
•Yankees RH Brandon McCarthy (5-10, 4.49 ERA, WHIP: 1.348) - McCarthy has provided an unexpected boost to an injury-tattered pitching staff, winning his last two starts and giving up one earned run in each of his three turns since his acquisition from Arizona. He beat the Rangers in New York on Thursday, allowing one run on four hits over six innings to improve to 4-0 in his last five outings. Adrian Beltre has tormented McCarthy to the tune of 14-for-36 with two homers and 10 RBIs.
--KEY STAT: MCCARTHY is 11-22 (-14.3 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was MCCARTHY 3.3, OPPONENT 4.6.
--MCCARTHY is 6-18 (-16.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was MCCARTHY 3.7, OPPONENT 5.5.
--MCCARTHY is 6-18 against the run line (-14.6 Units) when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was MCCARTHY 3.7, OPPONENT 5.5.
•Rangers RH Nick Martinez (1-6, 4.73 ERA, WHIP: 1.618) - Martinez returned from a three-week stint on the disabled list to blank the Yankees on three hits over 5 1/3 innings on July 22 but did not factor in the decision. In search of his first victory since May 24, Martinez has gone beyond six innings in only one of his 12 starts. The soon-to-be 24-year-old rookie has been prone to the long ball, giving up 12 home runs in only 72 1/3 frames.
#925 MINNESOTA @ #926 KANSAS CITY - 8:10 PM
•Twins RH Kyle Gibson (8-8, 4.19 ERA, WHIP: 1.267) - After getting scratched from a start on Saturday due to a stiff back, Gibson was cleared for Tuesday and will draw his first turn since July 18 after throwing a bullpen session over the weekend. The No. 22 overall pick of the 2009 draft was roughed up in his last outing, giving up six runs on nine hits over 6 1/3 innings to fall to 1-2 with a 6.91 ERA in July. Gibson allowed a run in 6 1/3 frames in a win versus the Royals on April 11 and is 2-0 with a 2.19 ERA in two all-time starts against them.
--KEY STAT: GIBSON is 10-0 OVER (+10.1 Units) versus American League teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was GIBSON 6.5, OPPONENT 5.3.
--GIBSON is 10-1 OVER (+9.1 Units) versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was GIBSON 6.0, OPPONENT 5.2.
•Royals RH James Shields (9-5, 3.58 ERA, WHIP: 1.270) - Shields returned to form following an uneven outing on July 18 in Boston, holding the White Sox to one run on six hits in seven frames in a no-decision during Wednesday’s 2-1 win. The 2011 All-Star notched his third quality start in four tries, but was unable to get the victory because the Royals didn’t score the go-ahead run until the ninth inning. Shields has posted a 4.22 ERA en route to dropping both of his 2014 turns versus the Twins, but is 7-5 with a 4.21 ERA across 17 career starts against them.
--KEY STAT: SHIELDS is 19-6 (+11.5 Units) against the money line versus American League teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SHIELDS 5.0, OPPONENT 2.6.
--SHIELDS is 40-18 (+16.3 Units) against the money line versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SHIELDS 4.8, OPPONENT 3.3.
#927 OAKLAND @ #928 HOUSTON - 8:10 PM
•Athletics RH Jeff Samardzija (4-8, 2.80 ERA, WHIP: 1.101) - Samardzija improved to 2-1 in four starts since being acquired from the Chicago Cubs as he limited Houston to one run and five hits over eight innings on Thursday. The 29-year-old All-Star is 2-0 with Oakland when allowing fewer than two runs after failing to record a decision in six such outings with Chicago. Samardzija has posted a 5-2 record and 3.20 ERA in 19 career games - four starts - against the Astros.
--KEY STAT: SAMARDZIJA is 5-14 (-10.3 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was SAMARDZIJA 3.2, OPPONENT 4.2.
--SAMARDZIJA is 5-21 (-15.4 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SAMARDZIJA 2.4, OPPONENT 3.9.
•Astros RH Scott Feldman (4-8, 4.60 ERA, WHIP: 1.436) - Feldman was on the losing end of Thursday's matchup with Samardzija as he surrendered six runs on nine hits and five walks in 5 1/3 innings. It was the third straight defeat for the 31-year-old, who has yielded 18 runs over 23 2/3 frames in four outings since beating Detroit on June 29. Thursday's loss dropped Feldman to 5-7 with a 6.34 ERA in 23 career games - 14 starts - versus the Athletics.
--KEY STAT: FELDMAN is 3-13 (-12.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was FELDMAN 3.3, OPPONENT 5.6.
--FELDMAN is 9-23 (-19.6 Units) against the money line versus an American League team with a batting average of .260 or worse in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was FELDMAN 3.7, OPPONENT 5.1.
--FELDMAN is 20-35 (-25.0 Units) against the money line in home games in night games since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was FELDMAN 4.2, OPPONENT 5.1.
Interleague
#929 MILWAUKEE @ #930 TAMPA BAY - 7:10 PM
•Brewers RH Matt Garza (7-7, 3.87 ERA, WHIP: 1.183) - Garza rebounded from a wretching performance with an outstanding effort in his last turn, holding the Mets to one run on two hits over eight innings. He retired only one batter in his previous start and was knocked out after allowing five runs and five hits against Washington. Garza was pounded for six runs on eight hits in 4 1/3 innings last September in his only career start against the Rays.
--KEY STAT: GARZA is 27-11 OVER (+15.7 Units) in night games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was GARZA 5.0, OPPONENT 4.9.
•Rays RH Alex Cobb (6-8, 3.76 ERA, WHIP: 1.207) - Cobb also is coming off a sensational outing in which he fanned 10 and permitted five hits over seven scoreless innings against St. Louis. The 26-year-old is 4-0 over his last five turns and has surrendered more than three earned runs only once in his last eight starts. Cobb, who never has faced Milwaukee, is seeking his first home win of the season after logging an 0-4 mark with a 4.10 ERA in seven outings at Tropicana Field.
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