STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
TUESDAY, JUNE 3rd 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Tuesday, 6/3/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #10
Interleague action used to be one of the most exciting chunks of schedule during the long and grueling Major League Baseball season. After months of the same ole divisional rivalries and league showdowns, baseball bettors got a brief breath of fresh air when the American and National Leagues would collide. But, much like the way the Star Wars franchise was watered down, interleague play was ruined by Major League Baseball wanting to capitalize on the popularity of these American League versus National League battles.
Now, interleague play isn’t just reserved for a few weeks on the calendar – it’s happening almost every day. In fact, interleague became so diluted that MLB.com stopped updating their historical records and stats section for these senior-versus-junior circuit clashes back in 2012. As of Monday evening, which features four interleague matchups, there have already been 109 interleague confrontations played this season, with the AL holding a slight 59-50 edge (54.1%) over its NL opponents. However, if it wasn’t for the AL East - 27-16 versus the NL – the American League would be losing 34-32 to the National League.
“I think it's a completely different animal now that we see interleague play on a daily basis,” says StatSystemsSports.net Expert Jude Ravo. “Teams don't seem to be changing their approach as much when hopping leagues.”
Interleague games offered something different for the industry. It threw a bit of a curveball at books and bettors, who had to factor in how a starting pitcher would hit in limited plate appearance or what the impact would be if an NL squad suddenly had a designated hitter. There was an aura of the unknown, which leveled the playing field when it came to finding added value in those interleague moneyline and totals. There are factors some handicappers still size up when breaking down the odds for American-National affairs, especially when it comes to sending an AL pitcher to the plate for one of their few career at-bats.
“This does make a huge difference and I try to typically avoid AL teams playing in NL parks unless they have a decided edge in starting pitching or if the NL team is just a bad one,” says StatSystems Sports Systems Analyst James Vogel. “Weak-hitting American League teams can be a good Under bet in NL parks while strong-hitting NL teams can be a good Over bet in AL parks.”
However, due to the oversaturation of interleague action in the modern MLB era, some bettors are treating these games the same as any other divisional or league matchup. “It has been occurring long enough now where the teams are getting comfortable with the different venues and format,” says our Vegas Insider Ryan Taylor. “I handicap the games the same as regular in-league play using matchups, momentum, and current form.”
Heading into Week #10, the most successful interleague squads this season have been the San Francisco Giants (6-0), Milwaukee Brewers (7-2), and Los Angeles Angels (6-2), while the bottom of the interleague barrel features the Minnesota Twins (2-6), Philadelphia Phillies (1-8), and Chicago Cubs (2-6).
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Betting Notes - Tuesday
•Hot Pitchers
-- Bailey is 3-0, 2.95 in his last three starts. Lincecum is 2-1, 2.19 in his last four starts.
-- Arrieta is 2-1, 3.55 in five starts this season.
-- De La Rosa is 6-0, 1.80 in his last seven starts.
-- Pirates won Cole's last three starts (2-0, 3.93).
-- Kazmir is 2-1, 1.85 in his last four starts.
-- Hutchison is 3-0, 2.75 in his last three starts. Sanchez is 2-0, 2.01 in his last four starts.
-- Wilson is 2-1, 1.57 in his last three starts. McHugh is 1-1, 1.29 in his last couple starts.
-- Alvarez is 1-1, 2.90 in his last five starts. Archer is 0-0, 1.50 in his last two.
-- Kansas City won Shields' last six road starts.
-- Noesi is 0-0, 2.70 in his last two starts.
•Cold Pitchers
-- Zimmerman is 1-1, 6.35 in his last four starts. Buchanon is 1-1, 4.63 in his first two MLB starts.
-- Wheeler is 1-2, 5.40 in his last four starts.
-- Anderson has a 6.08 RA in his last three starts, but Arizona is 3-0 when he starts, scoring 35 runs- he had one no-decision shortened by rain.
-- Haren is 0-2, 6.50 in his last three starts.
-- Hahn is making MLB debut; he was 2-1, 2.20 in seven AA starts; that ERA in the Texas League is very good, but five innings was his longest start.
-- Peavy is 0-2, 5.89 in his last six starts. House is 0-1, 4.38 in two starts.
-- Kuroda is 2-2, 6.42 in his last seven starts.
-- Jimenez is 0-2, 6.60 in his last three starts. Saunders is 0-1, 5.19 in his two starts this season.
-- Ramirez is 0-4, 7.04 in his last five starts. Floyd is 0-2, 4.63 in his last four.
-- Gallardo is 1-3, 5.79 in his last five starts. Deduno is 1-2, 4.82 in his last five.
-- Garcia has a 4.12 RA in three starts this season.
•Totals
-- Six of last eight Philly games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Cincinnati home games stayed under.
-- Five of last seven Cub games stayed under total.
-- Last eight Arizona road games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in Cole's last eight starts.
-- Eight of last ten Cleveland home games went over; last six Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Yankees home games.
-- Four of last five Detroit games stayed under total.
-- 10 of last 14 Baltimore games went over the total; last six Texas home games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Angel games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Atlanta games stayed under.
-- Over is 6-0-1 in last seven games at Miller Park.
-- Nine of last twelve Tampa Bay road games stayed under.
-- Four of last six St Louis games went over the total.
-- 11 of last 13 Dodger home games went over total. Six of last seven White Sox games stayed under.
•Hot Teams
-- Giants won eight of their last 10 games. Cincinnati won four of its last five.
-- Mets won six of their last seven games.
-- Pirates won four of its last five games.
-- Indians won its last seven home games. Boston won seven of their last eight games.
-- Blue Jays won 14 of its last 17 games.
-- Athletics won its last three games, scoring 25 runs.
-- Astros won seven of last nine games, but lost last two.
-- Braves won their last three games. Seattle won three of last four.
-- Brewers won five of their last six games.
•Cold Teams
-- Nationals lost seven of its last 10 games. Philadelphia lost four of their last five.
-- Cubs lost four of their last five games.
-- Rockies lost five of its last six games. Arizona is 5-8 in their last thirteen games.
-- Padres are 5-9 in their last fourteen games.
-- Yankees lost ten of its last fourteen home games.
-- Tigers lost nine of its last thirteen games.
-- Rangers are 4-9 in its last thirteen home games. Baltimore lost eight of last eleven road games, but won last two.
-- Angels lost five of their last seven games.
-- Marlins lost four of their last five home games. Tampa Bay lost its last nine road games.
-- Twins lost eight of its last eleven games.
-- Cardinals lost four of their last six games. Kansas City lost six of its last eight games.
-- White Sox lost three of their last four games. Los Angeles is 9-13 in their last 22 home games.
•Umpires Trends
-- Pitt-SD-- Last seven Porter games stayed under total.
-- Bos-Cle-- Home side won nine of 11 Davis games; favorite won his last six.
-- TB-Mia-- Favorites won six of last eight Carapazza games.
-- KC-StL-- Six of last eight Bucknor games stayed under.
-- Min-Mil-- Underdogs won last five Wegner games; seven of his ten games stayed under the total.
-- Chi-LA-- Underdogs won last four Cederstrom games; last three went over.
Diamond Trends - Tuesday
•ARIZONA is 4-21 (-19.2 Units) against the money line versus an National League starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 to 4.20 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ARIZONA 3.2, OPPONENT 5.4.
•PITTSBURGH is 10-0 UNDER (+10.2 Units) in road games versus a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 2.5, OPPONENT 3.4.
•WASHINGTON is 3-18 (-18.4 Units) against the run line after allowing 3 runs or less 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 3.0, OPPONENT 5.5.
•JORGE DE LA ROSA is 22-9 (+13.5 Units) against the money line versus an National League team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DE LA ROSA 5.0, OPPONENT 3.5.
•SAM DEDUNO is 12-1 UNDER (+10.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DEDUNO 2.4, OPPONENT 4.2.
•JAMES SHIELDS is 12-2 (+12.5 Units) against the run line on the road when the run line is (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SHIELDS 5.1, OPPONENT 2.7.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - Road teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (LA ANGELS) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against an excellent starting pitcher (ERA <=3.20) -American League, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games.
(42-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.2%, +29.7 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -118.6
The average score in these games was: Team 5.1, Opponent 3.3 (Average run differential = +1.8)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0, +1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-5, +9.6 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (52-20, +27.6 units).
•Play On - Home teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (CLEVELAND) - bad offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 4.70) -American League, with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game.
(60-21 since 1997.) (74.1%, +41.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (54-27)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.8, money line price: +104
The average score in these games was: Team 5, Opponent 4.2 (Average run differential = +0.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 51 (63% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0, +2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (19-7, +12.6 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (31-12, +20.2 units).
•Play Under - Road teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 (PHILADELPHIA) - below average National League hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA <=3.33), with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities.
(50-14 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.1%, +34.7 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 8.3, Money Line=-109.3
The average score in these games was: Team 2.9, Opponent 3.9 (Total runs scored = 6.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 40 (67.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (7-1, +6 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (28-13, +13.8 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (103-83, +12.2 units).
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w-thumbs!^
