Service Plays Tuesday 5/6/14

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[cracy]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 5/6/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_________________________________________


***** Tuesday, 5/6/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
___________________________________________________

NBA Playoff Journal (May 5)
The two-time defending champion Heat (East’s No. 2 seed) swept the Bobcats and both No. 5 seeds, Portland in the West and Washington in the East, won their respective series over the No. 4 seeds (Houston in the West and Chicago in the East). The Wizards won in five games (took all THREE games in Chicago) while the Blazers needed six games to oust the Rockets, with three of the six needing overtime. However, the opening round’s lead story (after the Donald Sterling tapes, of course) was FIVE of the eight series going to a Game #7. The NBA expanded its first round to a best-of-seven format back in 2003 and this is the first time in which more than four series needed a seventh and deciding game.

Home teams have dominated in postseason Game Seven’s all-time and this year was no different, as home teams won FOUR of the five confrontations (now stand at 95-24 all-time), with only the Raptors losing in 2014 (and just barely, falling 104-103). The Nets, the East’s No. 6 seed, won their Game #7 in Toronto and became the highest seed to advance to the conference semifinals this playoff season. Jason Kidd deserves a shout out for his team’s win, after Elias reported that he was the 19th first-year head coach to appear in a Game #7 on the road and became the FIRST to win. The previous 18 first-year NBA head coaches lost by an average margin of 11.2 points in their respective games.

Both No. 1 seeds were pushed to the limit, Indiana in the East and San Antonio in the West. However, both teams responded well in Game Seven, as the Pacers won their Game 7, 92-80, holding the Hawks to 30.4% shooting, the third-worst shooting performance in a Game #7 in the shot-clock era. As for the Spurs, who entered Game #7 of their series with the Mavericks 0-6 ATS, they jumped on Dallas early and led 68-46 at the half, on the way to a dominating 24-point win. “Mr Unreliable” led Oklahoma City with 33 points in the Thunder’s 120-109 Game #7 win (Durant had 36 points in Game#6), as the Grizzlies played without Zach Randolph and were overmatched. And finally, the strangest postseason in a long time (if not all-time, due to the Donald Sterling mess), ended Saturday night at Staples Center, with the Clippers outlasting the Warriors in a 126-121 shoot-out.

With the first round now complete, home teams just barely won more games than they lost, going 26-24 SU (.520). However, they went a ‘money-burning’ 19-28-3 ATS, which is just 40.4% or minus-11.8 net games. We noted in our April 21st journal that those following the Zig-Zag Theory had been ‘treading water’ for years. Borrowing the following stats from the last edition of this year’s Gold Sheet, “Zig-Zaggers’ were 556-513-25 over the last 17 years, 43 games over .500. However, if all games were played at minus-$1.10, one would be down 8.1 net games in that span. Looking back over 30 years, the Gold Sheet reported that the record stands at 966-830-37, which is 136 games over .500. That is plus-53.0 net games but on a per year average, it comes to 1.8 net games.

So how have “Zig-Zaggers” done in the 2014 playoffs? How about go 25-14-3 ATS , for a profit of 9.6 net games? Go figure! Maybe even more surprising has been the high scoring in this year’s postseason, so far. The playoffs typical bring extra-intensity but after 50 games, over bettors have a HUGE smile on their collective faces, having cashed 32 of 50 tickets, a 64% win rate.

We now move to the conference semifinals with eight teams remaining, contested over four series. Beginning Monday evening will be Washington (No. 5 seed) taking on Indiana (No. 1 seed) in the East and the Los Angeles Clippers (No. 3) taking on Oklahoma City (No. 2) in the West. The Pacers are just under a 2-to-1 favorite to win the series and are favored by four points in Game #1 (total is 183 1/2). The Thunder are just over a 2-to-1 favorite to win their series and are a five-point choice in Game #1 (total is 212 1/2).

The Wizards are venturing into uncharted territory. This is the team's first playoff appearance since 2008 and the win over Chicago was its first series win since 2005. Can the Wizards now make it past the second round? It hasn’t since the 1970s! Washington has reached Round #2 only twice since then, getting swept by the Heat nine years ago and losing 4-1 to the Celtics in 1982. The team last won a second round game way back on April 28, 1982, when Spencer Haywood was one of its stars! As for the Clippers, their first round win over the Warriors marked just the franchise's third playoff series win in the 38 years since the team moved West from Buffalo to California (first San Diego and then LA).
__________________________________

Eastern Conference Playoffs - Round #2

#705 BROOKLYN @ #706 MIAMI
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, TNT - Line: Heat -7.5, Total: 191.5) - The Brooklyn Nets won all four regular-season contests against Miami this season and recording four more would qualify as quite the upset as they prepare to face the host Heat in Tuesday’s opener of the Eastern Conference semifinals. Brooklyn won three of the meetings by a single point and also recorded a 104-95 double-overtime victory as a veteran group led by Paul Pierce isn’t intimidated by LeBron James and his teammates. Miami is certainly the more rested team after completing a sweep of the Charlotte Bobcats on April 28.

The sixth-seeded Nets went seven games against Toronto in the first round before squeezing out a 104-103 win on Sunday to advance but are highly confident in terms of facing the two-time defending champions. “We know we can beat them, but it is going to be a lot different from the regular season in the playoffs,” swingman Joe Johnson said after Sunday’s win. “So we understand that we will definitely have our work cut out for us and it is going to take a collective team effort.” Miami knows it will have to play better in the playoffs to stymie Brooklyn. “Hats off to them because they beat us four times,” guard Ray Allen told reporters. “We don’t particularly like how we played in those games.”

•ABOUT THE NETS (48-41 SU, 46-42-1 ATS): Brooklyn has a veteran group led by Johnson and Pierce that won’t succumb to the playoff pressure against the Heat. Forward Kevin Garnett is no longer the big-time force but he is always ready to mix it up on the boards, and point guard Deron Williams thrives when he’s in attack mode – which the Nets will need him to be to slay the Heat. Part of the offseason spending spree was designed with Miami in mind and the regular-season success is at least an indication that the series won’t be one-sided. Getting solid contributions from complimentary players like guards Alan Anderson, Shaun Livingston and Marcus Thornton and forwards Andray Blatche and Mirza Teletovic will be necessary.

•ABOUT THE HEAT (58-28 SU, 40-44-2 ATS): The extended break should be good for James’ injured thigh and guard Dwyane Wade’s troublesome knees. James was injured in Game #4 of the series against Charlotte and has been undergoing treatment and told reporters that he will be “close to 100 percent” for the series opener. Miami could use some improved interior play against Brooklyn after being outrebounded by an average of 6.3 boards in the four regular-season meetings. Udonis Haslem was in a starting role against the Bobcats but veteran reserve Chris Andersen (8.5 points, 5.8 rebounds in the series) was a much more significant contributor.

•PREGAME NOTES: This is the Nets’ first appearance in the Eastern Conference semifinals since 2007.... Pierce averaged 21.3 points in the regular season matchups with the Heat and Johnson averaged 19.5.... James averaged 27.5 points against Brooklyn but Wade missed two of the four contests with injuries while averaging 21.5.... The Nets are 14-5 against the spread (73.6%) versus good shooting teams - making more than 46% of their shots this season.... The Heat Are 47-30 versus the spread (61.0%) versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game over the last two seasons.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

-- In 1000 simulated games, BROOKLYN covered the spread 565 times, while MIAMI covered the spread 435 times. *EDGE against the spread =BROOKLYN. In 1000 simulated games, MIAMI won the game straight up 644 times, while BROOKLYN won 330 times. In 1000 simulated games, 548 games went under the total, while 452 games went over the total. *No EDGE.

-- In 1000 simulated games, BROOKLYN covered the first half line 526 times, while MIAMI covered the first half line 429 times. *EDGE against the first half line =BROOKLYN. In 1000 simulated games, 532 games went under first half total, while 468 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--BROOKLYN is 38-37 against the spread versus MIAMI since 1996.
--MIAMI is 50-27 straight up against BROOKLYN since 1996.
--37 of 71 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--MIAMI is 38-37 versus the first half line when playing against BROOKLYN since 1996.
--44 of 73 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Nets are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Nets are 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Miami.

--Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
--Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Miami.

--Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Road team is 21-10 ATS in the last 31 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Nets are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road games.
--Nets are 4-0-1 ATS L5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
--Nets are 6-0-1 ATS L7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

--Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
--Heat are 1-4 ATS L5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.
--Over is 6-1 in Heat last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest.

•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play Against - Home favorites versus the 1rst half line (MIAMI) - an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO) against a good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO), after having won 4 of their last 5 games, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days.
(55-28 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.3%, +24.2 units. Rating = 2*)

The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 48.4, Opponent 49.8 (Average first half point differential = -1.4)

The situation's record this season is: (5-6).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (33-14).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (173-154).
_______________________________

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___________________________________

Western Conference Playoffs - Round #2

#707 PORTLAND @ #708 SAN ANTONIO
(TV: 9:30 PM EST, TNT - Line: Spurs -6.5, Total: 205.5) - The Portland Trail Blazers went to overtime three times in the first round and needed a last-second jumper from Damian Lillard to avoid a Game #7. Their reward for such perseverance is a date with the top-seeded San Antonio Spurs, who host Game #1 of the Western Conference semifinals on Tuesday evening. The Spurs went seven games with the Dallas Mavericks but left no doubt who was the better team with a 119-96 drubbing in Game #7.

San Antonio gave Portland a performance about which to worry on Sunday when it led by as much as 31 points and was never challenged in the second half. “I’m certainly glad it’s over,” Spurs coach Gregg Popovich told reporters. “(The first-round series) kept many of us up, night after night, trying to figure (the Mavericks) out. We’re thrilled, and I think our best game was (Game #7).” The Trail Blazers echoed similar sentiments upon reaching the second round for the first time since 2000 and have the shooters to spread San Antonio out.

•ABOUT THE TRAIL BLAZERS (58-30 SU, 46-42-0 ATS): Lillard was the hero with a buzzer-beating 3-pointer in a 99-98 Game #6 victory but LaMarcus Aldridge came out of the first round as a star after putting up back-to-back 40-point outings to start the series and averaging 29.8 points and 11.2 rebounds in the six games. “It was a great series,“ Aldridge told reporters. “We feel like we got better from it... and we feel like we should be better for the next round.” Aldridge’s mid-range game will force Spurs star Tim Duncan outside the paint, leaving room for Lillard to drive and Wesley Matthews and Nicolas Batum space to spot up on the perimeter. Lillard averaged 25.5 points and 6.7 assists against the Rockets and went 23-of-47 from 3-point range.

•ABOUT THE SPURS (66-23 SU, 46-43-0 ATS): San Antonio All-Star point guard Tony Parker won’t hoist as many 3-pointers as Lillard but will make the young Portland star work on the defensive end by attacking the paint and running the pick-and-roll with Duncan and Tiago Splitter. Parker put up 32 points in the Game #7 victory on Sunday and averaged 19.9 in the series. Duncan averaged 17.3 points on 58 percent shooting and 8.4 rebounds in the first round and Manu Ginobili put up 17.7 points in the series to cap a strong showing for the “Big Three.” The Spurs also got a boost from Danny Green, who struggled early in the series but came on with 16.5 points on 12-of-14 shooting in the last two games.

•PREGAME NOTES: Lillard averages 26.3 points in seven career games against the Spurs.... The teams split four regular-season meetings, with each taking one game on the other’s home court.... Splitter shot 61.9 percent in the opening round and should be well rested after playing only 15 minutes while dealing with foul trouble in Game #7.... San Antonio is 3-12 versus the spread (20.0%) in home games versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game on the season, and 4-13 ATS (23.5%) in home games after two straight games with 10 or less offensive rebounds this season.... Portland is 13-5 against the spread (72.2%) in road games revenging a loss versus opponent, including 7-0 ATS in road games revenging a road loss versus opponent this season.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

-- In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO covered the spread 500 times, while PORTLAND covered the spread 500 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO won the game straight up 652 times, while PORTLAND won 333 times. In 1000 simulated games, 576 games went over the total, while 424 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.

-- In 1000 simulated games, PORTLAND covered the first half line 515 times, while SAN ANTONIO covered the first half line 485 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 522 games went over first half total, while 478 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SAN ANTONIO is 35-35 against the spread versus PORTLAND since 1996.
--SAN ANTONIO is 42-29 straight up against PORTLAND since 1996.
--36 of 70 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--SAN ANTONIO is 36-34 versus the first half line when playing against PORTLAND since 1996.
--39 of 71 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Trail Blazers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
--Trail Blazers are 0-4 ATS L4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
--Trail Blazers are 0-4 ATS L4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

--Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
--Under is 10-1 in Spurs last 11 games following a ATS win.
--Under is 8-0 in Spurs last 8 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.

•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play Over - Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (PORTLAND) - revenging a road loss versus opponent of 10 points or more against opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game).
(34-12 since 1996.) (73.9%, +20.8 units. Rating = 2*)

The average total posted in these games was: 208.3
The average score in these games was: Team 103.1, Opponent 111.8 (Total points scored = 214.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 25 (54.3% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (1-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (11-7).
_______________________________

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Game of the Day: Nets at Heat

Brooklyn Nets at Miami Heat (-7, 191.5)

The Brooklyn Nets won all four regular-season contests against Miami this season and recording four more would qualify as quite the upset as they prepare to face the host Heat in Tuesday’s opener of the Eastern Conference semifinals. Brooklyn won three of the meetings by a single point and also recorded a 104-95 double-overtime victory as a veteran group led by Paul Pierce isn’t intimidated by LeBron James and his teammates. Miami is certainly the more rested team after completing a sweep of the Charlotte Bobcats on April 28.

The sixth-seeded Nets went seven games against Toronto in the first round before squeezing out a 104-103 win on Sunday to advance but are highly confident in terms of facing the two-time defending champions. “We know we can beat them, but it is going to be a lot different from the regular season in the playoffs,” swingman Joe Johnson said after Sunday’s win. “So we understand that we will definitely have our work cut out for us and it is going to take a collective team effort.” Miami knows it will have to play better in the playoffs to stymie Brooklyn. “Hats off to them because they beat us four times,” guard Ray Allen told reporters. “We don’t particularly like how we played in those games.”

TV: 7 p.m. ET, TNT

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Heat as 7-point home faves. The total opened 191.5.

INJURY REPORT: Brooklyn Nets - C Brook Lopez (out for season, foot). Miami Heat - F Michael Beasley (Questionable, ankle).

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Got sharp bet on Brooklyn +8 (-120), buying a 1/2-point, so we moved Miami to -7.5 (-105). Seventy-three percent of cash and 69 percent of bets are on the Nets. Brooklyn not only covered, but won all four regular season meetings straight up with Miami." Mike Perry, Sportsbook.com.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Brooklyn went 4-0 SU versus Miami this season, but three of the four wins came by a single point, and the other win came in overtime. Tough spot for the Nets in Game 1 since they come off a Game 7 on the road and play on the road again with just one day of rest. However, Miami hasn't played since April 28, so they have been off for seven days which could disrupt their rhythm." Covers Expert Steve Merril.

ABOUT THE NETS: Brooklyn has a veteran group led by Johnson and Pierce that won’t succumb to the playoff pressure against the Heat. Forward Kevin Garnett is no longer the big-time force but he is always ready to mix it up on the boards and point guard Deron Williams thrives when he’s in attack mode – which the Nets will need him to be to slay the Heat. Part of the offseason spending spree was designed with Miami in mind and the regular-season success is at least an indication that the series won’t be one-sided. Getting solid contributions from complimentary players like guards Alan Anderson, Shaun Livingston and Marcus Thornton and forwards Andray Blatche and Mirza Teletovic will be necessary.

ABOUT THE HEAT: The extended break should be good for James’ injured thigh and guard Dwyane Wade’s troublesome knees. James was injured in Game 4 of the series against Charlotte and has been undergoing treatment and told reporters that he will be “close to 100 percent” for the series opener. Miami could use some improved interior play against Brooklyn after being outrebounded by an average of 6.3 boards in the four regular-season meetings. Udonis Haslem was in a starting role against the Bobcats but veteran reserve Chris Andersen (8.5 points, 4.3 rebounds in the series) was a much more significant contributor.

TRENDS:

* Nets are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Miami.
* Nets are 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Miami.
* Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a ATS win.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 52 percent of wagers on Covers Consensus are on the Brooklyn Nets .

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Nets have been burning Heat all season
By JUSTIN HARTLING

After dropping all four regular season games against the Brooklyn Nets, the Miami Heat have something to prove.

In those four games, the Nets won three of them by only one point including both games in Miami. The Nets were able to contain the Heat to 94.2 points per game, which is a full eight points lower than the Heat season average.

The Nets were also underdogs in every game, easily covering in each and going a perfect 4-0 against the spread versus the Heat.

The Heat opened as 7-point home favs against the Nets for Game 1 Tuesday.

 

[cracy]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
TUESDAY, MAY 6th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_______________________________________


***** Tuesday, 5/6/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
____________________________________________

MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #6
•White Sox's Abreu Sweeps AL Monthly Honors: Jose Abreu joined an exclusive club Monday. The slugging Chicago White Sox first baseman became the second player to capture his league's Rookie of the Month and Player of the Month awards to open a major league career. The feat was first accomplished last June by Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Yasiel Puig. Abreu won the American League honors. Colorado Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki was selected the National League Player of the Month, while Arizona Diamondbacks shortstop Chris Owings was chosen NL Rookie of the Month.

Abreu, 27, was the major leagues' April leader in home runs (10), RBIs (32), total bases (71) and extra-base hits (19), and he batted .270 (31-for-115). No player in major league history hit as many homers before May 1 in his debut season than Abreu's total. His 10 homers set a White Sox rookie record for any month. The RBI total tied for the third-highest total over a player's first 29 major league games, matching two superstars: Joe DiMaggio (1939) and Albert Pujols (2001). According to our MLB data base here at StatSystems Sports, the last rookie before Abreu to lead the majors in homers and RBIs through April was Minnesota Twins first baseman Kent Hrbek in 1982.

In addition to Abreu and Puig, six others captured Player of the Month and Rookie of the Month simultaneously: Florida Marlins left-hander Dontrelle Willis (June 2003), Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun (July 2007), San Francisco Giants catcher Buster Posey (July 2010), Tampa Bay Rays right-handers Jeremy Hellickson (May 2011) and Chris Archer (July 2013) and Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout (July 2012). The last White Sox player to be chosen the AL Player of the Month was outfielder Magglio Ordonez in July 2003.

•Rays On Fire When Archer Takes The Mound At Home: When Chris Archer takes the mound at Tropicana Field Tuesday, the Tampa Bay Rays hope he continues to be their lucky charm. In the right-handers's last seven home starts, the Rays are a perfect 7-0. Archer has also ensured that the Rays beat stiff competition as Tampa Bay is 6-0 in his last six home starts against teams with a winning record.

•Dodgers' Hyun-Jin Ryu Will Begin Throwing Program On Tuesday: Following a visit to Dr. Neal ElAttrache Monday, Dodgers left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu will begin a throwing program on Tuesday, the team announced. He is currently on the disabled list with shoulder inflammation. Ryu, 27, is pain-free and ElAttrache felt an MRI exam was not necessary. He had a similar injury while playing in Korea a few years ago but was fine after a few days of rest.

Due to a quirky schedule, Ryu started three of the team's first six games this season. In seven starts and 39 innings this year, Ryu has gone 3-2 with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. He went 14-8 with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP last season, which earned him a fourth place finish in the National League Rookie of the Year voting. Ryu is eligible to come off the disabled list on May 13.

•Indians Place Giambi On 15-Day DL: The Cleveland Indians placed designated hitter Jason Giambi on the 15-day disabled list with a right calf strain, the team announced Monday. Giambi left Saturday's game with cramping in right calf. He was held without a hit in his first 10 at-bats to start the season and begins his second stay on the DL this season. The Indians also reinstated catcher Yan Gomes from the paternity list prior to Monday's game against the Minnesota Twins. Gomes missed two games while on paternity leave following the birth of his daughter, Brooklyn Mae. Gomes is hitting .261 with three home runs and 10 RBIs in 88 at-bats.

Betting Notes - Tuesday
•Hot Pitchers
-- Kershaw allowed Arizona one run in 6.2 IP in Australia, in only '14 start; he comes off DL to start here.
-- Hudson is 2-1, 1.99 in his last three starts.
-- Alvarez is 1-0, 2.57 in his last three starts.
-- Collmenter is 1-0, 2.77 in his last two starts. Estrada is 1-0, 3.20 in his last three outings.

-- Tillman is 3-1, 4.55 in his last five starts.
-- Oakland is 6-0 when Chavez starts (2-0, 2.61).
-- Wilson is 4-1, 2.38 in his last five starts.

-- Hutchison has a 2.96 RA in his last four starts.

•Cold Pitchers
-- Detwiler is making first '14 start; he was 2-7, 4.04 in 13 starts last year; this is his 70th big league start.
-- Morton is 0-4, 6.29 in his last four starts.
-- Lyons is 0-2, 4.50 in his first two starts. Floyd is making first '14 start; he was 0-4, 5.55 in his last five '13 starts.
-- Colon is 1-3, 7.61 in his last four starts.

-- Tomlin is making first '14 start; he was 0-3, 8.04 in his last three starts LY. Deduno is making his first '14 start; he was 14-13, 4.11 in 33 starts last couple years, 1-2, 5.79 in his last three.
-- Archer is 1-1, 6.85 in his last four starts.
-- Houston is 0-6 when Oberholtzer starts (0-5, 5.63). Ray is making MLB debut; he was 3-2, 1.53 in five AAA starts this year.
-- Elias is 1-1, 5.40 in his last three starts.
-- Kuroda is 0-2, 8.27 in his last three starts.

-- Hamels is 0-2, 6.75 in his first two '14 starts.
-- Bailey is 2-1, 3.60 in his last three starts. Doubront is 1-3, 7.66 in his last five starts.
-- Jackson is 2-2, 5.90 in his last five starts. Noesi allowed four runs in 3.2 IP in his first start for the White Sox, his third MLB team this season.
-- Nicasio is 3-1, 4.46 in six starts this season. Ross is 0-2, 11.66 in his last three starts.
-- Erlin is 0-4, 7.15 in his last four starts. Guthrie is 0-2, 4.97 in his last four.

•Totals
-- Five of last seven Dodger games went over the total.
-- Under is 7-2-1 in Giants' last ten road games. Last five Pittsburgh games went over the total.
-- Nine of last ten Atlanta home games stayed under.
-- Ten of last thirteen Miami home games went over.
-- Under is 14-2 this season in games at Miller Park.

-- Over is 11-2 in Minnesota's road games. Four of last five Cleveland home games stayed under.
-- Seven of last eleven Detroit games went over the total.
-- Nine of last twelve Baltimore road games went over.
-- Six of last eight Oakland games stayed under.
-- Over is 10-4-1 in Angels' home games, 1-3-1 in last five.

-- Six of last eight Toronto road games went over.
-- Five of last six Cincinnati road games stayed under.
-- Over is 9-5 in last fourteen games at Wrigley Field.
-- Over is 8-4 in last twelve Colorado games.
-- Seven of Royals' last eight games went over total.

•Hot Teams
-- Nationals won six of their last nine games.
-- Giants won ten of their last eleven games.
-- Marlins won nine of their last ten home games.
-- Cardinals won their last two games, both by one run.
-- Brewers won six of its last eight home games. Arizona won four of its last six road games.

-- Twins won four of its last five road games.
-- Rays won four of its last five games.
-- Tigers won eight of its last nine games.
-- Mariners won eight of their last ten games.
-- Angels won six of their last eight home games.

-- Phillies are 8-5 in their last 13 games.
-- Reds won three of their last four games.
-- Rockies won nine of their last 12 games.
-- Padres won its last two games, both in its last at-bat.

•Cold Teams
-- Dodgers lost three of their last four games.
-- Braves lost their last seven games.
-- Pirates lost 14 of their last 19 games.
-- Mets lost four of their last five games.

-- Indians lost eight of their last ten games.
-- Orioles lost their last two games, scoring three runs.
-- Astros lost five of their last six games.
-- Athletics lost its last four home games.
-- Yankees lost five of their last six games.

-- Blue Jays lost five of their last eight road games.
-- Red Sox are 4-6 in their last ten home games.
-- White Sox lost four of their last six games; Cubs lost four of last six at home.
-- Rangers lost six of their last eight games.
-- Royals lost its last five games.

•Umpires Trends
-- LA-Wsh-- All four Nauert games went over the total.
-- SF-Pitt-- Favorites won four of last five Wolcott games.
-- NY-Mia-- Favorites won five of six Carapazza games.
-- StL-Atl-- Underdogs won five of last eight TWelke games.
-- Az-Mil-- Four of five Basner games went over the total.

-- Hst-Det-- Last four Fletcher games stayed under total.
-- Min-Cle-- Three of four O'Nora games stayed under.
-- NY-LA-- Last four Barry games stayed under total.
-- Sea-A's-- Last four Hickox stayed under the total.

-- Tor-Phil-- Favorites won four of five Kellogg games.
-- Chi-Chi-- Four of five Emmel games stayed under.
-- Tex-Col-- Underdogs won three of five Danley games.
-- KC-SD-- Last three Carlson games went over total.

Diamond Trends - Tuesday
•SAN FRANCISCO is 3-16 (-17.2 Units) against the money line versus an National League starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 2.8, OPPONENT 4.8.

•MINNESOTA is 13-2 OVER (+11.2 Units) versus American League teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game on the season this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 5.3, OPPONENT 5.1.

•CHICAGO CUBS are 15-2 (+13.9 Units) against the run line versus an American League team with they batting average of .265 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 5.7, OPPONENT 3.5.

•BARTOLO COLON is 14-2 (+12.0 Units) against the money line in road games versus National League teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game on the season since 1997.
The average score was COLON 5.4, OPPONENT 3.2.

•SAM DEDUNO is 12-1 UNDER (+11.0 Units) versus American League teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DEDUNO 2.9, OPPONENT 3.0.

•BARTOLO COLON is 16-2 (+14.5 Units) against the run line versus poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was COLON 5.5, OPPONENT 3.5.

Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - Home teams against a 1.5 run line (COLORADO) - good National League offensive team (>=5.0 runs/game) against a good American League starting pitcher (ERA<=4.20), with a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start).
(37-11 since 1997.) (77.1%, +24.9 units. Rating = 3*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (32-16)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.8, money line price: -110
The average score in these games was: Team 5.9, Opponent 4.4 (Average run differential = +1.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 29 (60.4% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0, +4.8 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0, +4.8 units).

•Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (SEATTLE) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better on the season (American League) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season-AL.
(72-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.7%, +49.5 units. Rating = 4*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -187.9
The average score in these games was: Team 5.4, Opponent 2.7 (Average run differential = +2.7)

The situation's record this season is: (3-1, +0.5 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (31-7, +17.3 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (144-53, +45.1 units).

•Play Under - All teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 (ST LOUIS) - below average National League hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA <=3.33), starting a over rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest.
(34-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.9%, +26.6 units. Rating = 4*)

The average total posted in these games was: 8.2, Money Line=-115
The average score in these games was: Team 2.9, Opponent 3.5 (Total runs scored = 6.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 28 (70% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (27-5, +21.1 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (58-32, +21.7 units).
___________________________________________

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BEN BURNS

10* NHL BLUE CHIP SUPER TOTAL!
UNDER 5.5 – Boston vs Montreal

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Today's NBA Picks

Brooklyn at Miami

The Nets open their series in Miami tonight against a Heat team that is coming off a 109-98 win over Charlotte and is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games after scoring 100 points or more in the previous game. Miami is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Heat favored by 10 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Miami (-7). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

TUESDAY, MAY 6 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 705-706: Brooklyn at Miami (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Brooklyn 120.444; Miami 130.977 Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 10 1/2; 196 Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 7; 191 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Miami (-7); Over

Game 707-708: Portland at San Antonio (9:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Portland 121.424; San Antonio 130.539 Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 9; 211 Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 6 1/2; 205 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-6 1/2); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Today's MLB Picks

Cincinnati at Boston

The Red Sox open up their interleague matchup against a Reds team that is 1-8 in Homer Bailey's last 9 starts as a road underdog. Boston is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Sox favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Boston (-130). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, MAY 6 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: LA Dodgers at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 16.810; Washington (Treinen) 15.211 Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 903-904: San Francisco at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Hudson) 14.536; Pittsburgh (Morton) 15.691 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 6 Vegas Line: San Francisco (-120); 7 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+100); Under

Game 905-906: NY Mets at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Colon) 15.895; Miami (Eovaldi) 17.307 Dunkel Line: Miami by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Miami (-125); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Miami (-125); Under

Game 907-908: St. Louis at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lyons) 15.835; Atlanta (Floyd) 14.821 Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 7 Vegas Line: Atlanta (-120); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+100); Under

Game 909-910: Arizona at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Collmenter) 15.093; Milwaukee (Estrada) 14.099 Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 7 Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-155); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+135); Under

Game 911-912: Houston at Detroit (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Oberholtzer) 15.064; Detroit (Ray) 16.673 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Detroit (-190); 9 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-190); Under

Game 913-914: Minnesota at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Deduno) 13.660; Cleveland (Tomlin) 14.973 Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Cleveland (-145); 8 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-145); Over

Game 915-916: Baltimore at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Tillman) 13.273; Tampa Bay (Archer) 14.576 Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-155); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-155); Under

Game 917-918: NY Yankees at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Kuroda) 15.163; LA Angels (Wilson) 14.276 Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 9 Vegas Line: LA Angels (-145); 8 Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+125); Over

Game 919-920: Seattle at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Elias) 16.070; Oakland (Chavez) 15.564 Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Oakland (-170); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+150); Under

Game 921-922: Toronto at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Hutchison) 16.250; Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.320 Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 7 Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-125); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+105); Under

Game 923-924: Cincinnati at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Bailey) 14.843; Boston (Doubront) 16.370 Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 10 Vegas Line: Boston (-130); 9 Dunkel Pick: Boston (-130); Over

Game 925-926: Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Noesi) 15.142; Chicago Cubs (Jackson) 14.537 Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-125); No Run Total Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+105); N/A

Game 927-928: Texas at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Rossi) 14.951; Colorado (Nicasio) 16.340 Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 10 Vegas Line: Colorado (-135); 10 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-135); Under

Game 929-930: Kansas City at San Diego (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Guthrie) 14.984; San Diego (Erlin) 14.103 Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 6 Vegas Line: San Diego (-115); 7 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-105); Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Today's NHL Picks

Chicago at Minnesota

The Wild try to dig out of an 0-2 series hole tonight as they host a Chicago team that is 2-9 in its last 11 road games. Minnesota is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Wild favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+115). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

TUESDAY, MAY 6 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 19-20: Boston at Montreal (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston 13.017; Montreal 11.177 Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 2; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-140); 5 Dunkel Pick: Boston (-140); Over

Game 21-22: Chicago at Minnesota (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 11.712; Minnesota 12.611 Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1; 4 Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-135); 5 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+115); Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cappers Access

Heat -7
Trailblazers +6.5
Wild +130

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Indians on Monday and likes the Bruins on Tuesday.

The deficit is 343 sirignanos.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Bonus Play TUES Nets + 7

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gamblers Data

Bonus Plays Tuesday

Mariners / A's under 7.5

NYY/Angels under 8

 

[tgunn11]

Baseball Crusher
Miami Marlins -120 over New York Mets
(System Record: 22-0, won last 3 games)
Overall Record: 22-13

 

[tgunn11]

Hockey Crusher
Chicago Blackhawks -129 over Minnesota Wild
(Playoff Record: 13-4, lost last game)
(Regular Season Record: 91-4)
Overall Record: 104-78-2

 

[tgunn11]

Basketball Crusher
Brooklyn Nets +7 over Miami Heat
(Playoff Record: 8-6-2, won last game)
(Regular Season Record: 78-8)
Overall Record: 85-91-7

 

[tgunn11]

Soccer Crusher
San Lorenzo + Cruzeiro OVER 2
This match is happening in Conmebol
(System Record: 565-20, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 565-479-84

 

[cracy]

StatSystemsSports.net
Inside the Paint- Tuesday

The Washington Wizards and Los Angeles Clippers started the 2014 National Basketball Association conference semifinals in fine form for their backers as they each covered the spread and won outright in their respective series openers. Lines closed with the Wizards as 4-point road underdogs at the Indiana Pacers and the Clippers as 5.5-point road dogs at the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Wizards won 102-96 and the Clippers prevailed 122-105. The other two series will begin Tuesday night as the Brooklyn Nets (+7) visit the Miami Heat (7:00 PM EST) and the Portland Trail Blazers (+6.5) are in Texas (9:30 PM EST) to visit the San Antonio Spurs.

Betting Notes - Tuesday
•Brooklyn is 4-0 against Heat this season, with three wins by exactly one point; Nets survived last possession in Toronto Sunday to get to second round- they were 3-0-1 versus spread on road in Raptor series. Miami hasn't played in 8 days since sweeping overmatched Charlotte. Nets won their two visits to American Airlines Arena by 96-95/88-87 scores. Heat is 3-4 versus spread in last seven home games. Five of last seven series games stayed under.

•Spurs won last two games with Portland, after losing eight of previous 11 series meetings; Blazers are 5-4 in last nine visits to AT&T Center, splitting pair this season. Veteran Spurs won Game #7 Sunday; Portland won Game #6 two days earlier, so they had little extra prep time. Trail Blazers are 27-18 against spread on road this season, winning two of three in Houston last series. San Antonio's cover in Game #7 versus Dallas was its first in last nine games.

Hoop Trends - Tuesday
•BROOKLYN is 17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) in road games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BROOKLYN 101.3, OPPONENT 97.3.

•SAN ANTONIO is 28-10 UNDER (+16.9 Units) in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 104.4, OPPONENT 94.9.

•MIAMI is 25-48 (-27.7 Units) against the 1rst half line versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 50.9, OPPONENT 48.4.

•SAN ANTONIO is 25-6 UNDER (+18.4 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 52.2, OPPONENT 44.5.

•TERRY STOTTS is 22-6 OVER (+15.4 Units) after having won 8 or more of their last 10 games as the coach of PORTLAND.
The average score was STOTTS 109.7, OPPONENT 105.7.

Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play On - Home favorites of -165 to -500 versus the money line (MIAMI) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, revenging 4 or more losses versus opponent in last 2 years, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%).
(26-1 since 1996.) (96.3%, +24.5 units. Rating = 4*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -155
The average score in these games was: Team 98.2, Opponent 90.6 (Average point differential = +7.6)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-1, +0.5 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1, +3.5 units).
___________________________________________

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA

Tuesday, May 6

Brooklyn is 4-0 against Heat this season, with three wins by exactly one point; Nets survived last possession in Toronto Sunday to get to second round- they were 3-0-1 vs spread on road in Raptor series. Miami hasn't played in 8 days since sweeping overmatched Charlotte. Nets won their two visits here this season by 96-95/88-87 scores. Heat is 3-4 vs spread in last seven home games. Five of last seven series games stayed under.

Spurs won last two games with Portland, after losing eight of previous 11 series games; Blazers are 5-4 in last nine visits here, splitting pair this season. Veteran Spurs won Game 7 Sunday; Portland won Game 6 two days earlier, so they had little extra prep time. Blazers are 27-18 against spread on road this season, winning two of three in Houston last series. San Antonio's cover in Game 7 vs Dallas was its first in last nine games.