STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NCAAF REPORT
TUESDAY, DECEMBER 30th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** NCAA College Football Information – Week #19 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 NCAA College Football season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of StatSystemsSports.net. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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MUSIC CITY BOWL
#243 NOTRE DAME vs. #244 LSU
TV: 3:00 PM EST, ESPN
Line: LSU -7, Total: 52.5
Louisiana State and Notre Dame realize elite teams play for national championships. Both teams, though, had flaws that landed them in Nashville, Tennessee, for the Music City Bowl on Tuesday. There were points during the season when the 22nd-ranked Tigers (8-4) and the Fighting Irish (7-5) could have been those elite squads. LSU opened with a (28-24) victory over eventual Big Ten runner-up Wisconsin and was riding high at 3-0 after back-to-back shutouts. However, it failed to navigate the ultra-competitive SEC West, as all of its losses came against division rivals.
Notre Dame's regression to this point was equal parts stunning and devastating. Its 6-0 start was undone by a controversial 31-27 loss at Florida State on October 18th, which triggered a 1-5 swoon in which its defense was exposed at levels never before seen in the Catholic school's storied history. LSU led the country in defensive passing efficiency at 98.7, highlighting a unit that ranked fourth in passing yards allowed (162.3 ypg) and eighth in total yards (305.8). But in the four losses, the Tigers were shredded for averages of 228.5 yards through the air and 428.8 overall while giving up six of their nine passing TDs for the season.
Additionally, Brady Hoke's firing by Michigan has once more led to coach Les Miles having his name linked to the Wolverines, having rebuffed the Big Ten school when the job was available in 2007 and 2010. Earlier last month, Miles - a former Michigan assistant under Bo Schembechler - said he has not been contacted by anyone at the school, which reportedly has made San Francisco 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh its focus. Miles, though, has a good thing going in Baton Rouge. This will be his 10th bowl appearance in as many seasons with the Tigers, going 6-3 in the first nine, and he already owns one bowl victory over Notre Dame - a 41-14 rout in the Sugar Bowl after the 2006 season.
LSU's streak of 15 bowl games is the sixth-longest active run among FBS schools. "There's a tradition and a culture here we've kind of established and the young men that come here really enjoy stepping into this room and being a part of that culture," Miles said. "It's interesting too, you hate to say good-bye, we said good-bye to 22 seniors at the banquet and they're a quality group of men. To think the team, they talk about their time here, and what they don't realize is they impact the people here." While the defense has kept LSU in most games, the offense has been a season-long work in progress. Anthony Jennings threw for only 1,460 yards and 10 touchdowns, while Miles opted for a running back-by-committee approach.
Leonard Fournette was the best among them with 891 yards and eight TDs, while Terrence Magee and Kenny Hilliard combined for another 976 and nine scores. Hilliard missed the final two games with a shoulder injury but should be available, and Miles is eager to unleash a running attack that churned out 219.5 yards per game. "You won't see much new in this game at all," Miles said when asked if he would put new wrinkles in the offense. "What we're doing is we've got young players and we're trying to grow them up and have them do the things they've done in the past here and see if they can do them better, execute well on game day."
Notre Dame boasts a proficient passing offense as Everett Golson compiled 3,355 yards and 29 touchdowns. But the senior was also picked off fourteen times and committed 22 turnovers overall, prompting coach Brian Kelly to announce Malik Zaire will split time with him in this game. Most of Zaire's action came in mop-up duty in a 49-14 loss to USC, and the sophomore went 9 of 20 for 170 yards in the contest. "I don't know if we're like buddy-buddy, but I look at Malik as my little brother," Golson said. "It's competition, for sure. (But) we understand that, off the field, there's no animosity."
Regardless of who is under center, Kelly knows Notre Dame must hold onto the football to help protect a defense that has been torched for 291 points in the last seven games - the highest total of any seven-game stretch at Notre Dame dating to at least 1980. "We'll have to do a great job of keeping our defense off the field, and our offense has a lot to say about what goes on there," said Kelly, the first head coach in school history to go to a bowl in each of his first five seasons. "These are important practices and we're better at (the quarterback) position because of it." LSU is trying to become the first school to post three bowl victories over Notre Dame.
•PREGAME NOTES: NOTRE DAME... 1-10 straight-up and 0-11 versus the spread as bowlers versus opponent off straight-up win... bowl dogs off three straight-up losses who allow 26 or more PPG are 1-5 ATS... 1-4 straight-up and against the spread versus SEC opponent. LSU... 1-3 straight-up and 0-4 against the spread as bowlers off a straight-up win... Third consecutive non-major bowl for the Louisiana State... In December bowl games, Independent teams are 11-7 straight-up and 12-6 versus the spread since 2004.
•KEY STATS
--NOTRE DAME is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) since 1992.
The average score was NOTRE DAME 25.4, OPPONENT 21.5.
--NOTRE DAME is 22-9 against the 1rst half line (+12.1 Units) in road games versus good rushing teams - averaging >=200 rushing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was NOTRE DAME 14.1, OPPONENT 11.7.
--NOTRE DAME is 12-3 against the 1rst half line (+8.7 Units) in road games after gaining 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992.
The average score was NOTRE DAME 15.5, OPPONENT 10.9.
--LSU is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LSU 19.6, OPPONENT 24.5.
--LSU is 22-7 UNDER (+14.3 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging >=425 yards/game since 1992.
The average score was LSU 24.9, OPPONENT 25.1.
--LSU is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) off a close win by 7 points or less over a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LSU 24.8, OPPONENT 17.1.
--LSU is 1-9 against the 1rst half line (-8.9 Units) in road games after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs since 1992.
The average score was LSU 8.3, OPPONENT 14.0.
--LSU is 30-11 UNDER (+17.9 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread since 1992.
The average score was LSU 10.6, OPPONENT 10.1.
•COACHING TRENDS
--BRIAN KELLY is 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) when the total is between 49.5 and 56 in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was KELLY 32.6, OPPONENT 21.8.
--BRIAN KELLY is 14-2 UNDER (+11.8 Units) after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last game in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was KELLY 21.8, OPPONENT 22.9.
--BRIAN KELLY is 16-4 against the 1rst half line (+11.6 Units) after a bye week in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was KELLY 17.7, OPPONENT 11.2.
--BRIAN KELLY is 9-1 against the 1rst half line (+7.9 Units) in road games after scoring 14 points or less last game in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was KELLY 15.9, OPPONENT 10.4.
--LES MILES is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in road games after playing their last game on the road as the coach of LSU.
The average score was LSU 35.1, OPPONENT 16.7.
--LES MILES is 18-7 UNDER (+10.3 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was MILES 11.3, OPPONENT 9.8.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
Any bowl that lands Notre Dame in its game is usually thrilled each year, but the Music City Bowl has to be extra-ecstatic to field a matchup between the Fighting Irish and another big name program, LSU. Both schools are making their first appearance in Nashville, Tennessee for the contest. This is also the first time in nine years that the SEC team is not squaring off with an ACC program. SEC teams owned a 6-2 SU & 4-3-1 ATS edge in that span. Under the total is a profitable 9-4 in this bowl series since 2001.
The Music City game has been among the more competitive on the bowl menu during that stretch, with the largest victory margin being just 15 points, and 11 of the 15 games being decided by a single score margin. The last Irish-Tigers meeting came in the 2007 Sugar Bowl. It was an LSU blowout - 41-14 as 9-point favorites in a game with a total of 56. Prior to that, the teams met nine times from 1970-1998, including a 1997 Independence Bowl matchup - another Louisianan State SU/ATS win: 27-9. LSU is 12-5 straight-up in bowls since 1995.
--LSU is 2-2 against the spread versus NOTRE DAME since 1992.
--LSU is 2-2 straight up against NOTRE DAME since 1992.
--3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--LSU is 2-2 versus the first half line when playing against NOTRE DAME since 1992.
--2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
•RECENT TRENDS
--ND is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
--ND is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
--Under is 35-17-1 in ND last 53 non-conference games.
--LSU is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games in December.
--LSU is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
--Under is 5-0 in LSU last 5 games overall.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 56 times, while the favorite covered the spread 24 times. *EDGE against the spread =NOTRE DAME. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 42 times, while the underdog won straight up 37 times. 55 games went over the total, while 48 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 59 times, while the favorite covered first half line 20 times. *EDGE against first half line =NOTRE DAME. 52 games went over first half total, while 46 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Under - All teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56.5 (NOTRE DAME) - after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game against opponent after outgaining opponent by 225 or more total yards in their previous game, in a game involving two good teams (outgaining opponents by 0.6 to 1.2 YPP), in non-conference games.
(42-12 since 1992.) (77.8%, +28.8 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 53.5
The average score in these games was: Team 24.6, Opponent 24.6 (Total points scored = 49.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 26 (48.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (4-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (27-7).
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BELK BOWL
#245 LOUISVILLE vs. #246 GEORGIA
TV: 6:30 PM EST, ESPN
Line: Georgia -7, Total: 57.5
Bobby Petrino's return to coaching at Western Kentucky in 2013 did not end with a bowl invite despite an 8-4 season for the Hilltoppers. Prowling the sideline again at Louisville, however, has him back in a familiar place. Petrino leads the No. 20 Cardinals into Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina, on Tuesday night for a tough Belk Bowl matchup with 13th-ranked Georgia. In its fourth year since a six-year stint as the Meineke Car Care Bowl, the Belk is among four bowls outside the major ones to feature two ranked programs.
During Petrino's first stint at Louisville from 2003-06, the Cardinals went 39-7 in the regular season and 2-2 in bowl games, including an Orange Bowl victory over Wake Forest in his final year. Following that win, Petrino departed for the NFL, lasting one season with the Atlanta Falcons before returning to the college ranks for a four-year tenure at Arkansas that ended in personal scandal. A one-year hiatus and his one season at Western Kentucky followed before Petrino's return to the Bluegrass State. In his first year back at the helm, the Cardinals went 9-3 in their ACC debut, tying for the second-best overall mark in the league behind 13-0 Florida State.
After going 23-3 over the previous two years, including two bowl wins, they are chasing three straight seasons of double-digit victories for the first time. "Yeah, we want to get to 10 wins," said Petrino, whose Louisville teams in 2003 and 2006 accomplished the feat. "That's certainly something our seniors would be very proud of so they can look back at their career and see the double-digit winning seasons they've had." Louisville is playing in a fifth consecutive bowl game with the only loss in that span coming against N.C. State in the 2011 Belk Bowl. Winning a third straight will be no easy task against the Bulldogs (9-3), who averaged an SEC-best 41.7 points.
Georgia was 12th in the FBS with an average of 255.0 rushing yards, though it will have to contend with a Louisville team that gave up just 93.7 per game on the ground - third best in the country. "Coach Petrino is obviously doing a great job," Georgia head coach Mark Richt told the school's official website. "From what I'm reading, they are 2-0 versus Southeastern Conference opponents in bowls. They've won five straight against SEC opponents, and Coach Petrino is 5-1 at Louisville versus SEC teams. "So there will be a great challenge for us to try to change that trend."
Leading the way for the Bulldogs is freshman running back Nick Chubb, who piled up 1,281 rushing yards and scored twelve of his 14 touchdowns on the ground. Chubb had 202 yards on 30 carries in a 45-32 win over Arkansas on October 18th. If Chubb can't find holes against the Cardinals, Georgia has a reliable passer in Hutson Mason. The senior topped 200 yards only three times but had just four interceptions while tossing 20 TDs. He attempted 19 or fewer passes six times and hasn't faced a secondary quite like that of Louisville. "When you watch (the Bulldogs) on film, they're a very good football team," Petrino said.
"They've got a really good offensive line, big running, the quarterback has completed 69 percent of his passes and doesn't throw a lot of picks." That could change against a Cardinals squad that led the nation with 25 interceptions and boasts a first-team All-American in 6’0” safety Gerod Holliman. His 14 picks tied the NCAA record and helped him win the Jim Thorpe Award as the country's top defensive back. While Louisville's offense relies heavily on a platoon of running backs, it will be without Michael Dyer after the senior was ruled academically ineligible. He was one of four players to rush for at least 350 yards this season.
The Cardinals' quarterback situation, meanwhile, is also on unsure footing. Freshman Reggie Bonnafon, who stepped in when sophomore Will Gardner tore an ACL, was knocked out of the season finale against Kentucky with a bruised knee. Third-stringer Kyle Bolin passed for 381 yards and three touchdowns to rally the Cards to a 44-40 victory. Both Bonnafon and Bolin may see time against Georgia and can rely on 6’3” senior wide receiver DaVonte Parker, who missed the first seven games with a foot injury but seems to have hit his stride after catching 35 passes for a team leading 735 yards and five TDs.
Georgia's players may hit the field with a bit of a chip on their shoulders after narrowly missing out on a chance to play for the SEC title. "This is where we're at," Mason said. "Let's go 10-3, not 9-4, and finish this thing off right. It's been a heck of a season for the offense. Those are things when you're looking back - even though you didn't accomplish the goals you wanted to accomplish - no one can take away that you were part of the best offense in Georgia history." The Bulldogs' 50th bowl appearance and 17th in a row marks their first-ever matchup with the Cardinals. It also pits them against former Georgia and current Louisville DC Todd Grantham, who was on Richt's staff from 2010-13.
•PREGAME NOTES: LOUISVILLE... 4-1 straight-up and versus the spread last five as bowlers... 3rd best rush defense (94 RYPG) in the nation... Petrino: 31-3 straight-up and 23-11 against the spread off a straight-up win versus opponent off straight-up loss. GEORGIA... 1-4 straight-up and against the spread as bowlers last four years... Pre-New Year’s Day bowl favorites of 6 or more points off a straight-up favorite loss are 9-24-4 ATS... 4th in nation in turnover margin (+15)... FYI: There is a long standing trend of betting on the underdogs in bowl games between the SEC & ACC. Teams catching the points in such games are 26-12-2 ATS since 1993 and 13-5-1 ATS in the L19.
•KEY STATS
--LOUISVILLE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LOUISVILLE 29.4, OPPONENT 20.4.
--LOUISVILLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games versus good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LOUISVILLE 29.7, OPPONENT 23.3.
--LOUISVILLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.9 yards/play over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LOUISVILLE 31.3, OPPONENT 20.8.
--LOUISVILLE is 26-10 ATS (+15.0 Units) in road games after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game since 1992.
The average score was LOUISVILLE 26.1, OPPONENT 22.8.
--LOUISVILLE is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) the 1rst half total after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LOUISVILLE 17.0, OPPONENT 4.3.
--GEORGIA is 31-16 against the 1rst half line (+13.4 Units) in road games off 1 or more consecutive unders since 1992.
The average score was GEORGIA 14.9, OPPONENT 10.2.
--GEORGIA is 16-5 OVER (+10.5 Units) the 1rst half total after a loss by 6 or less points since 1992.
The average score was GEORGIA 19.5, OPPONENT 10.2.
•COACHING TRENDS
--BOB PETRINO is 22-7 ATS (+14.3 Units) off 2 or more consecutive overs in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was PETRINO 35.2, OPPONENT 23.4.
--BOB PETRINO is 13-3 OVER (+9.7 Units) the 1rst half total after scoring 31 points or more in 4 straight games in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was PETRINO 23.5, OPPONENT 14.3.
--BOB PETRINO is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after a game where they committed 4 or more turnovers in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was PETRINO 20.7, OPPONENT 15.7.
--MARK RICHT is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games against ACC opponents as the coach of GEORGIA.
The average score was GEORGIA 30.4, OPPONENT 18.9.
--MARK RICHT is 12-3 OVER (+8.7 Units) after a loss by 6 or less points as the coach of GEORGIA.
The average score was GEORGIA 40.5, OPPONENT 15.9.
--MARK RICHT is 28-14 UNDER (+12.6 Units) the 1rst half total in road games versus good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season as the coach of GEORGIA.
The average score was GEORGIA 12.7, OPPONENT 11.4.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
Only once in the last seven years has the Belk Bowl in Charlotte, NC not hosted a team from the state of North Carolina. This year’s matchup between Louisville and Georgia will be #2 in that span. This game has had a pair of different names in its 10-year history, but one thing is for certain regardless of the name, home field advantage has proven important. In fact, teams from the state of North Carolina are on a 6-2 ATS run in the game. Unfortunately, we can’t call on that trend this season. Instead, we might choose to look at the favorites, in this case the Bulldogs, as favorites are on a nice run of 8-1 SU & 6-3 ATS in the L9 games.
Or perhaps a look at a correlated parlay might work out, with Over the total being 4-0 in the past games that underdogs covered. These 9-3 teams are matched for the first time in school history at Bank of America Stadium. Georgia’s last two bowl games were against Nebraska (1-1 SU/ATS). They have lost three of their last four straight-up, but are 8-4 SU since 2002. Mark Richt is 8-5 straight-up in 13 consecutive bowl appearances. The Cardinals are on a 2-0 SU and ATS bowl move.
•RECENT TRENDS
--LOU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 versus the SEC.
--LOU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
--Over is 5-1 in LOU last 6 games in December.
--UGA is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
--UGA is 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 versus the ACC.
--Over is 15-6 in UGA last 21 non-conference games.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 52 times, while the underdog covered the spread 48 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 74 times, while the underdog won straight up 27 times. 44 games went under the total, while 33 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 57 times, while the underdog covered first half line 43 times. *No EDGE. 41 games went over first half total, while 34 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
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FOSTER FARMS BOWL
#247 MARYLAND vs. #248 STANFORD
TV: 10:00 PM EST, ESPN
Line: Stanford -14, Total: 48.5
While Stanford mostly had its hands full against ranked opponents, coach David Shaw's team took care of business against everyone else. That doesn't bode well for a Maryland team which is the bowl season's biggest underdog. The Cardinal enter a school-record sixth consecutive postseason appearance favored by two touchdowns over the Terrapins in the Foster Farms Bowl at nearby Levi's Stadium on Tuesday night. After back-to-back Pac-12 championships, Stanford (7-5) failed to reach double-digit wins for the first time since 2009 - and its lack of success against Top 25 foes is a big reason why.
The Cardinal went 1-5 in such games, with their lone victory coming 31-10 at then-No. 9 UCLA in their regular-season finale November 28th. They easily won their other six games by an average of 24.8 points, including a one-sided 38-17 victory at archrival California the previous week. Stanford hopes to carry the offensive success from its back-to-back wins to close the regular season into this matchup. The Cardinal still finished with the Pac-12's lowest-ranked offense at 386.5 yards per game and tied Oregon State for fewest points (25.7 per game). "I think the big thing for us is to worry about us and make sure we're playing our best football," Shaw said. "We want to continue doing what we started doing late in the year."
"We need to play with high efficiency and have the ability to make big plays down the field." The Cardinal racked up 854 yards of offense in their last two games behind an efficient Kevin Hogan, who completed 31 of 39 attempts for 448 yards. He also ran for 92 yards on 14 carries in those wins while Remound Wright accounted for 156 on the ground with six touchdowns, helping Stanford surpass 200 yards rushing in both games after not doing so in any of the first 10. While Wright could be in for another big day against a Terrapins defense that's been gashed for an average of 201.6 rushing yards, Stanford's defense enters as one of the stingiest in the country.
The Cardinal ended the regular season ranked second in points allowed (16.0 points per game), fifth in total defense (287.4 yards per game), seventh against the pass (175.7 ypg) and 11th against the run (111.8 ypg). Stanford could also have a big edge when it comes to the crowd with this game being played 11 miles from campus. Maryland fans, on the other hand, will have to travel roughly 2,800 miles to see their team play. "They're excited. They understand what this is. They understand this is something that we earned by how we played, positively and negatively," Shaw said of his players. "Now it's a chance to go back and play one more game in a great stadium. And hopefully in front of a loud home crowd."
Unlike Stanford, Maryland (7-5) closed the season in disappointing fashion. The Terrapins blew a 25-point lead and were outscored 10-0 in the fourth quarter of a 41-38 home loss to Rutgers on November 29th to cap their first season in the Big Ten. "It hurts a lot, there is no doubt about that," coach Randy Edsall said. "We accomplished some things that nobody thought we could accomplish, and it's not going to take away from that. We get an opportunity to get to play another one, but it's disappointing. What we have to do as a program is just look at these things and make sure they don't happen again, and when we play again... utilize this season to propel us forward, to make us better."
"That's what we will do, because that's the kind of kids we have in the program." Maryland's offense focuses squarely on quarterback C.J. Brown, whose 148 rushing attempts were 50 more than any teammate. He ran for team highs of seven touchdowns and 569 yards, including 194 in the last two games, but he was the Big Ten's ninth-rated passer and ranked eighth with 173.6 passing yards per game. Brown could get a boost from the expected return of top wideout Stefon Diggs, who suffered a lacerated kidney against Penn State on November 1st. Diggs leads the team with 52 receptions, 654 yards and five TD catches despite playing in just nine games.
•PREGAME NOTES: MARYLAND... 5-2 straight-up and versus the spread last 7 as bowlers... Big 10 bowlers are 7-19 against the spread vs. Pac-12 opponent... Brown was limited to 38 yards on 19 carries in last season's 31-20 loss to Marshall in the Military Bowl... Edsall: 10-1 versus the spread away with winning record off a straight-up against the spread loss. STANFORD... Pac-12 bowlers off back-to-back straight-up against the spread wins are 17-6 ATS... Pre-New Year’s Day favorites of 8 or more points are 35-65-3 versus the spread... Worst red zone offense of all bowlers.
•KEY STATS
--MARYLAND is 31-10 UNDER (+19.8 Units) after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored since 1992.
The average score was MARYLAND 23.7, OPPONENT 27.3.
--MARYLAND is 13-4 against the 1rst half line (+8.6 Units) versus excellent defensive teams - allowing <=4.25 yards/play since 1992.
The average score was MARYLAND 9.8, OPPONENT 16.5.
--MARYLAND is 28-13 UNDER (+13.7 Units) the 1rst half total after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored since 1992.
The average score was MARYLAND 11.6, OPPONENT 13.4.
--STANFORD is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after a win by 17 or more points over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was STANFORD 22.1, OPPONENT 22.1.
--STANFORD is 33-14 ATS (+17.6 Units) after a game where they committed no turnovers since 1992.
The average score was STANFORD 30.7, OPPONENT 24.9.
--STANFORD is 18-4 UNDER (+13.6 Units) in road games off 2 or more consecutive unders since 1992.
The average score was STANFORD 18.7, OPPONENT 25.4.
--STANFORD is 13-4 UNDER (+8.6 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992.
The average score was STANFORD 16.3, OPPONENT 9.1.
•COACHING TRENDS
--RANDY EDSALL is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games off an upset loss as a home favorite in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was EDSALL 29.1, OPPONENT 25.8.
--RANDY EDSALL is 39-21 ATS (+15.9 Units) in road games after playing a game at home in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was EDSALL 23.4, OPPONENT 27.8.
--RANDY EDSALL is 12-3 UNDER (+8.7 Units) in road games after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was EDSALL 23.8, OPPONENT 21.2.
--RANDY EDSALL is 12-3 UNDER (+8.7 Units) in road games after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was EDSALL 22.7, OPPONENT 24.9.
--RANDY EDSALL is 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was EDSALL 9.6, OPPONENT 12.7.
--DAVID SHAW is 14-3 UNDER (+10.6 Units) in road games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers as the coach of STANFORD.
The average score was STANFORD 30.7, OPPONENT 17.9.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
The San Francisco area has hosted a bowl game every year since 2002, but for the 2014 game, much has changed, primarily a new name and a new venue. Beautiful new Levi’s Stadium hosts the Foster Farms Bowl, and welcomes Maryland and Stanford for the festivities. The Cardinal will look to keep the momentum going in San Francisco for the Pac 12, as teams from that league were 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in their L6 tries in this bowl series.
Favorites have also won seven straight games while going 5-2 ATS. Strike another edge up for Stanford, who is actually the largest favorite on the board this bowl season. Don’t ignore the total however, as there is a nice pattern there as well, 6-1 Under since 2007. Stanford had appeared in the past two Rose Bowls, losing to Michigan State last season after a win over Wisconsin, and is 11-13-1 all-time in the postseason. This marks the first meeting between these programs.
•RECENT TRENDS
--MD is 6-0 ATS L6 games following a SU loss.
--MD is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
--Over is 21-8 in MD last 29 games on grass.
--STAN is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in December.
--STAN is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
--Under is 16-5 in STAN last 21 games overall.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 37 times, while the underdog covered the spread 30 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 62 times, while the underdog won straight up 6 times. 47 games went under the total, while 37 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 43 times, while the underdog covered first half line 21 times. *EDGE against first half line =STANFORD. 47 games went over first half total, while 38 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Under - All teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49.5 (STANFORD) - dominant team - outgaining their opponents by 1.5 or more yards/play, in a game involving two average rushing teams (3.5 to 4.3 YPR), in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences.
(34-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (85.0%, +27.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 46.2
The average score in these games was: Team 19.5, Opponent 19.5 (Total points scored = 38.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 18 (45% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (18-2).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (54-24).
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