Dr Bob
2 Star Selection
CLEVELAND (-7 ½) over Houston
23-Dec-08 04:05 PM Pacific Time
The Cavaliers are 21-6 ATS this season and they’ve covered the spread in their last 9 home games, which were all wins by 11 points or more. Houston is the best team that they’ve hosted this season but the Cavs beat Utah by 12 points here and Denver by 11 points, so they’ve been able to beat good teams at home by double-digit margins. Houston is playing well now that their big 3 are all healthy, but playing their 4th game in 5 nights after winning the first 3 of those games is a tough situation to be in (the Rockets apply to a negative 29-62-1 ATS situation based on that scheduling). My ratings favor Cleveland by 7 ½ points, so the line is fair and the Cavaliers have won 11 of their 13 home games by double-digits, including 9 in a row. It’s also tough to take on the Cavaliers when you had to play the previous night, as Cleveland is 7-1 ATS against unrested teams this season, including 4-0 ATS at home and 3-0 ATS if the Cavs had the previous night off. I’ll take Cleveland in a 2-Star Best Bet at -8 points or less.
2-Stars at -8 points or less.
3 Star Selection
Memphis (+11) over DALLAS
23-Dec-08 05:35 PM Pacific Time
Dallas tends to letdown when hosting bad teams, as the Mavericks are just 4-15-2 ATS at home against a team with a win percentage of .333 or less the last 3 seasons, including 0-4 ATS this season under new coach Rick Carlisle. The Mavs are also just 2-11 ATS in all home games this season and tonight they host a 9-18 Grizzlies team that applies to a very good 80-21-1 ATS big road underdog situation that is 32-6-1 ATS when applying to teams that played the previous night. My ratings favor Dallas by just 10 points, so we have some line value to go along with the good situation, and I don’t mind taking an improving Memphis squad that is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games. I’ll take Memphis in a 3-Star Best Bet at +10 ½ or more and for 2-Stars at +10 points.
3-Stars at +10 1/2 or more, 2-Stars at +10.
COLLEGE
Opinion
Missouri (-3 ½) over Illinois
23-Dec-08 04:30 PM Pacific Time
Missouri and Illinois are both playing above expectations so far this season, but the Illini are not in a good spot after a couple of easy wins over bad teams and they qualify in a negative 29-82-5 ATS situation tonight. My ratings favor Missouri by 3 points at this neutral site and I’ll lean with the Tigers at -3 ½ or -4 points and I’ll take Missouri in a 3-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less.
Opinion - would be a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 or less.
3 Star Selection
DAYTON (-8 ½) over Marshall
23-Dec-08 05:00 PM Pacific Time
Dayton is one of the better defensive teams in the nation (33.7% FG allowed), but he Flyers have had trouble scoring against good defensive teams. Scoring shouldn’t be a problem against a Marshall team that has allowed 46.5% shooting and 41.8% from 3-point range. Marshall is a good offensive team (48.1% FG), but the Thundering Herd have faced mostly mediocre and bad defensive teams and they struggled against the 2 better than average (but not great) defensive teams Wisconsin Green Bay (37.9% FG) and Morgan State (40.7% FG). Dayton will be able to score and Marshall hasn’t proven that they can score against a good defensive team. Dayton applies to a very good 132-47-4 ATS momentum situation, so the situation is favorable as well. My ratings favor the Flyers by 10 points, so the line is fair, and I’ll take Dayton in a 3-Star Best Bet at -9 points or less and for 2-Stars at -9 ½ or -10.
3-Stars at -9 or less, 2-Stars at -9 1/2 or -10.
