Service Plays Thursday 9/4/14

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[h=1]Today's NFL Picks[/h] [h=2]Green Bay at Seattle[/h] The Packers open the season against the defending champion Seahawks on Thursday night and come into the contest with a 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 Thursday games. Green Bay is the pick (+6) according to Dunkel, which has the Seahawks favored by only 3. Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+6). Here are all of this week's picks.
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 4
Time Posted: 10:00 a.m. EST (9/1)
Game 461-462: Green Bay at Seattle (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 133.926; Seattle 137.164
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 3; 41
Vegas Line: Seattle by 6; 45
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+6); Under
 
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NFL
Long Sheet

Week 1


Thursday, September 4

GREEN BAY (8 - 8 - 1) at SEATTLE (16 - 3) - 9/4/2014, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
 
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NFL

Week 1


Trend Report

Thursday, September 4

8:30 PM
GREEN BAY vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 7 games
Seattle is 17-1 SU in its last 18 games at home
Seattle is 1-3-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay

 
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NFL

Week 1

Packers @ Seahawks-- Seahawks won/covered 10 of their last 11 home openers, including last five in row; under is 11-1-1 in their last 13 home openers. Home side won seven of last eight series games; Pack is 2-3 in last five games here, losing last visit in ’12 on awful call by replacement refs on last play of game. Green Bay lost 14-12/34-28 in last two road openers; they allowed 30+ points in last three series openers. Packers had been 17-7-1 as road dog under McCarthy until LY, when they were 1-3, 1-2 with sub QB’s playing. Since ‘07, Pack is 11-6 as non-divisional road dogs. Since ‘05, Seahawks are 31-16-1 as home favorites, 12-5 under Carroll, 6-3 vs. non-division foes.
 

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Inside The Huddle – Thursday


#461 GREEN BAY @ #462 SEATTLE
TV: 8:30 PM EST, NBC
Line: Seahawks -6, Total: 46

The reigning Super Bowl champions certainly don't need a built-in edge, but the league's best home-field advantage is just one obstacle the Green Bay Packers have to conquer when they visit the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday night to kick off the NFL season. Seattle rode a suffocating defense to its first Super Bowl title in February, culminating its run by manhandling Peyton Manning and Denver's record-setting offense. The Seahawks are 15-1 over the past two seasons at CenturyLink Field.

Green Bay is touted as one of the top contenders to dethrone Seattle and the reason is a healthy Aaron Rodgers, who missed seven games last season due to a fractured collarbone. Rodgers returned for the regular-season finale and authored a last-minute comeback that clinched the third straight NFC North title for the Packers. The last meeting between the teams in 2012 featured one of the more memorable endings - infamously dubbed the "Fail Mary" - in league history, when Seattle's Russell Wilson threw a touchdown pass on the final play of the game that appeared to be an interception.

•ABOUT THE PACKERS (2013: 8-7-1, 1st NFC North): Rodgers is not the sole reason for the optimism in Green Bay - dangerous wideout Randall Cobb is back after missing 10 weeks due to injury last season while running back Eddie Lacy looks to build upon a season in which he rumbled for 1,178 yards and 11 TDs and was named the NFL's Offensive Rookie of the Year. On the other side of the ball, the Packers expect a major upgrade in the pass rush after the offseason signing of veteran defensive end Julius Peppers (118.5 career sacks) along with a return to health by linebacker Clay Matthews, who has 50 career sacks in five seasons but was hindered by a broken thumb for much of 2013. Plugging the void left by a season-ending injury to behemoth nose tackle B.J. Raji will be an issue against the Seahawks' smash-mouth ground game.

•ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (2013: 13-3, 1ST NFC West): Seattle led the NFL in fewest points (14.4) and yards (273.3) permitted while also ranking No. 1 with 28 interceptions - eight by bombastic cornerback Richard Sherman, the leader of a secondary known as the Legion of Boom. Aside from a post-Super Bowl hangover, the Seahawks must cope with the loss of defensive linemen Chris Clemons, Red Bryant and Clinton McDonald while playing in the fiercest division in football. Dual-threat Wilson has posted a passer rating of at least 100.0 in each of his first two seasons and gets back a big weapon in multi-talented wideout Percy Harvin - who missed nearly the entire 2013 campaign due to injury. That will augment a ground game powered by Marshawn Lynch, who has rushed for 4,051 yards and 35 TDs the past three seasons.

•PREGAME NOTES: Rodgers has five straight seasons with a passer rating over 100.0 and has thrown for 101 TDs versus 20 interceptions in the past three campaigns.... Wilson has 24 overall wins and 15 at home in his first two seasons, the most by a quarterback in the Super Bowl era.... Green Bay is 6-2 against the Seahawks since 2003 - with five of the wins coming in Seattle.... The Seahawks are 6-0 against the spread as a home favorite of 7-points or less over the last three seasons.... The Packers are 58-37 Over in games played on turf since 1992.

•KEY STATS
--GREEN BAY is 37-19 OVER (+16.1 Units) the 1rst half total against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
The average score was GREEN BAY 14.5, OPPONENT 10.4.

--SEATTLE is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SEATTLE 24.6, OPPONENT 14.2.

•COACHING TRENDS
--MIKE MCCARTHY is 13-5 OVER (+7.5 Units) against NFC West division opponents as the coach of GREEN BAY.
The average score was GREEN BAY 30.0, OPPONENT 21.5.

--MIKE MCCARTHY is 16-5 OVER (+10.5 Units) the 1rst half total against NFC West division opponents as the coach of GREEN BAY.
The average score was GREEN BAY 16.5, OPPONENT 10.8.

--PETE CARROLL is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of SEATTLE.
The average score was SEATTLE 30.4, OPPONENT 11.6.

--PETE CARROLL is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in home games in the first month of the season as the coach of SEATTLE.
The average score was SEATTLE 26.8, OPPONENT 13.1.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--GREEN BAY is 6-3 against the spread versus SEATTLE since 1992.
--GREEN BAY is 7-3 straight up against SEATTLE since 1992.
--5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--GREEN BAY is 7-3 versus the first half line when playing against SEATTLE since 1992.
--5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Packers are 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
--Home team is 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--GB is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
--GB is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in Week #1.
--Over is 4-0 in GB last 4 games in September.

--SEA is 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 home games.
--SEA is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in September.
--Under is 7-0 in SEA last 7 vs. NFC.

StatSystemsSports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:

--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 40 times, while the underdog covered the spread 16 times. *EDGE against the spread =SEATTLE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 48 times, while the underdog won straight up 9 times. 38 games went over the total, while 29 games went under the total. *No EDGE.

--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 74 times, while the underdog covered first half line 47 times. *No EDGE. 63 games went over first half total, while 55 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.

•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Against - Road teams versus the money line (GREEN BAY) - poor passing defense from last season - allowed 230 or more passing yards/game, in conference games.
(62-27 over the last 10 seasons.) (69.7%, +30.8 units. Rating = 2*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -115.6
The average score in these games was: Team 24.2, Opponent 18.8 (Average point differential = +5.4)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (25-10, +13.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (38-18, +18.5 units).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (112-65, +22.4 units).

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If you didn’t go 25-6 during August and September (80.6%), you weren’t with us here at StatSystems Sports! That was our win-loss record the first two months of the season with our Huge *5-Star Selections.

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NFL
Short Sheet

Week 1


Thursday, September 4

Green Bay at Seattle, 8:30 ET
Green Bay: 2-7 ATS as an underdog
Seattle: 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less
 
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NFL Opening Line Report: Books staying high on Seahawks

With Labor Day weekend drawing to a close, it’s a sure sign of two things: Summer is pretty much finished, and the NFL is just getting started.

While Week 1 odds have been on the board since the spring, action hasn't really heated up until recently. And we’ve got some sterling Week 1 matchups right out of the gate, most notably in the Thursday night opener, with the Green Bay Packers traveling to Seattle to take on the Super Bowl champion Seahawks in the primetime spotlight.

The opening number at most sportsbooks was Seahawks -5 to -6. Michael Stewart of CarbonSports.ag said his place stuck with the higher line.

“We opened with the Seahawks a solid 6-point home favorite, and we haven’t moved off that number,” Stewart tells Covers. “This game has seen great two-way action, and from all indications, we won’t have to move off this number, but maybe we’ll move the juice from time to time.”

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-7)

The defending AFC champion Broncos hope to bounce back from an embarrassing Super Bowl performance and ride Peyton Manning’s arm to another big year.

The line opened at Denver -7 back in April and is still ranging from 7 to 7.5 at most books. CarbonSports opened at 7.5 and hasn’t been nudged in either direction for the Sunday night contest.

“While we saw decent Colts money come in early, all the late money has been on the Broncos,” Stewart says. “The reason for that late money: the Broncos and Peyton Manning have looked very sharp in the preseason and bettors believe they’ll carry that into Week 1 of the regular season. We tend to agree with those bettors and have been shading our line toward the Broncos.”

San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) at Dallas Cowboys

The Niners are having all sorts of off-the-field issues, with linebacker Aldon Smith getting smacked with a nine-game suspension last week for violating the league’s personal conduct policy, followed by defensive lineman Ray McDonald’s arrest early Sunday morning on domestic violence charges.

But San Francisco is holding steady as 5.5-point chalk for Sunday afternoon’s tilt at AT&T Stadium. The line for this game was among those taking the biggest jump since numbers went up in April.

“San Francisco opened a solid 3-point road favorite, and that number proved to be way too short as all the early action was on the 49ers,” Stewart says. “We didn’t stay on three very long - it was probably one of our very first moves when we hung Week 1 lines back in April.

“We went to 3.5 and eventually blew through four and got to 4.5. That’s an enormous move for an NFL game, but with news coming out about Cowboys linebacker Sean Lee going down for the year, we wanted to get aggressive with this game. As more and more money showed for the 49ers, we eventually got to 49ers -6, which is our current number.”

New England Patriots (-4.5) at Miami Dolphins

The Pats were a banged-up team with not much of a defense last season, yet came up just a game short of the Super Bowl.

With stud tight end Rob Gronkowski back, along with a better defense that includes a much improved secondary, Stewart said the money is piling in on New England. That’s taken a line that started at Pats -3 and pushed it to -4.5 in most spots, and even -5 at CarbonSports, for Sunday’s game.

“We got to -3.5 in early June, by late July we got to -4.5 and eventually to Patriots -5,” Stewart says. “So far, 80 percent of the action is on the Pats. Since we got to -5, we did book some sharp action on the Dolphins. But it wasn’t enough to move off (-5). Our exposure on the Patriots is significant enough to where we definitely want to write more action on the Dolphins, regardless of if it’s sharp.”
 
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Quick-Hits - Week #1
Systems Analyst James Vogel

Thursday, 9/4/2014

•Packers @ Seahawks-- Seahawks won/covered 10 of their last 11 home openers, including last five in row; under is 11-1-1 in their last 13 home openers (91.6%). Home side won seven of last eight series matchups; Packers are 2-3 in last five games at CenturyLink Field, losing last visit in 2012 on awful call by replacement refs on last play of game. Green Bay lost 14-12/34-28 in last two road openers; they allowed 30+ points in last three series openers. Packers had been 17-7-1 as road dog under McCarthy (70.8%) until last year, when they were 1-3, 1-2 with sub quarterback’s playing. Since ‘07, Pack is 11-6 as non-divisional road dogs. Since ‘05, Seahawks are 31-16-1 as home favorites, 12-5 under Carroll, 6-3 versus non-division foes.
 
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NCAAF

Thursday's game
Arizona (-24) beat UTSA 38-13 LY-- total yardage was only 422-379, as Roadrunners passed for 277 yards. Wildcats have four starters back on OL; they gained 787 yards in crushing UNLV 58-13 last week, with 353 rushing yards. UTSA (+12.5) forced six turnovers, won at Houston 27-7, holding Cougars to 208 yards. Roadrunners are 6-3 as underdogs on road since going to I-A. Wildcats covered seven of last nine games out of conference; they're 6-6 as home favorites under Rodriguez.

Friday's games
Pitt-Boston College haven't met in 10 years; both had walkover wins vs lame opponents last week. BC's only three returning starters on offense all play on OL; Eagles are 9-5 as home underdogs since '06. Pitt has four starters back on OL, but lost six starters on defense; they're 11-8 as road favorites since '06, 2-3 under Chryst- they're 7-4 vs spread in last eleven non-leaguie games. Eagles are 7-11 in their last 18 non-ACC games. Both teams have new QBs.

Washington State-Nevada haven't met since '05. Wazzu got beat 41-38 in Seattle by Rutgers last week, despite passing for 532 yards. Rutgers ran ball for 215 yards, won game with 3:24 left. Nevada has 10 starters back on defense; they're 5-1 as home underdogs since '10, 2-0 under Polian. Wolf Pack beat I-AA Southern Utah 28-19 last week (7-0 at half, total yardage was 547-380). Coogs have senior QB with 20 starts, 8 starters back on offense- they're 8-4 vs spread on road under Leach (1-1 as AF).
 

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Marc Lawrence upset of week...UTSA tonight. Does anyone have Chris Jordan's baseball play today or Paul Leiner's 1000?
 
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Must read line update for Seahawks-Packers
Andrew Caley

We are now just hours away from the kickoff of the 2014 NFL season in Seattle where the Seahawks host the Green Bay Packers and the line continues to move back-and-forth between the NFC contenders.

The line has now moved back to the opening number of Seahawks -5.5 after the number sat at Seattle -6 for the last few days.
 
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Royals set for crucial road trip
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

KANSAS CITY, Mo. -- The upcoming road trip could determine the outcome of the Kansas City Royals' season.

First is a weekend visit to New York to face the Yankees, who remain in the hunt for a wild-card spot. Next, Kansas City travels to play the Detroit Tigers, who are in a dogfight with the Royals for the American League Central championship.

While the Yankees and Tigers have recent playoff experience, the Royals have not sniffed the playoffs since winning the 1985 World Series. Will Kansas City feel the pressure?

"There's always going to be pressing," Royals manager Ned Yost said Wednesday before the Royals completed a three-game sweep of the Texas Rangers with a 4-1 win. "These guys want to do good. They want to win a championship. There's going to be a period where they are going to try too hard. It's just natural.

"You (must) stay focused on your task at hand today because if you don't, it kinda runs away from you, especially when you are in a tight race like we are. ...

"If you start thinking down the road if we don't win today and we don't win tomorrow and Detroit wins and the next thing you know we're four games (out). It's a lot of baggage you don't need to carry. Focus on winning this game today. That's all matters. Don't think about tomorrow. Don't think about the next day. Just think about what can we do to win this ballgame today, and it makes it easier."

Following the trip to New York and Detroit, the Royals return home for a 10-game homestand with the first seven games against the Boston Red Sox, a last-place club, and the Chicago White Sox, who are 12 games below .500, giving Kansas City a chance to make up ground if needed. The homestand ends with three games against Detroit.

"It's going to be exciting," Yost said. "It's going to be a tough road trip."
 
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Preview: Cardinals (75-63) at Brewers (72-66)


Game: 1
Venue: Miller Park
Date: September 04, 2014 8:10 PM EDT


Having gained an edge in the NL Central in the first few days of September, the St. Louis Cardinals now have a chance to expand it against the reeling Milwaukee Brewers.

The Cardinals will try to earn a season-high sixth consecutive win Thursday night in the first of four games at Miller Park, where the Brewers hope to have Ryan Braun back.

St. Louis (76-63) was tied for the division lead Sunday but heads to Milwaukee with a three-game cushion on the Brewers (73-66), who have lost a season-high eight straight.

Peter Bourjos hit a walk-off single Wednesday to keep the Cardinals' streak going with a 1-0 victory over Pittsburgh.

"We played good baseball (in Pittsburgh), but we have to keep going," catcher Yadier Molina told MLB's official website. "Milwaukee, I know they're not playing well right now, but they are a dangerous team. We have to be ready for them. They're hungry."

Milwaukee endured a 6-2 loss to the Chicago Cubs on Wednesday night and was outscored 17-5 in the three-game sweep to the Central's last-place club. The Brewers have hit .211 and been outscored 55-16 during their longest skid since a nine-game dip May 10-19, 2010.

"I don't understand it," manager Ron Roenicke said. "We haven't pitched well. We haven't played good defense. We haven't been swinging the bat well, either."

Milwaukee played without Carlos Gomez, who could be out until the middle of this month with a sprained left wrist, while Braun was back home awaiting the birth of his first child. Braun's wife was reportedly in labor after Wednesday's loss, but Roenicke was unsure of the slugger's status for Thursday's opener to a season-high, 11-game homestand.

"(Labor) can last a while," Roenicke told MLB's official website. "So we'll see."

The Brewers will play seven games against the Cardinals over the next two weeks and visit St. Louis from Sept. 16-18.

The Cardinals have won seven of 12 meetings this season and took two of three Aug. 1-3 at Busch Stadium. They've also won 12 of their last 16 in Milwaukee and will try to earn another win while adding to Wily Peralta's woes.

The right-hander has given up a combined 14 runs in eight innings in back-to-back defeats after going 6-1 with a 1.59 ERA over the previous seven starts. He was charged with six runs in three innings, his shortest outing this season, in a 13-2 drubbing at San Francisco on Friday.

Peralta (15-9, 3.82 ERA), however, is 4-0 with a 2.16 ERA in his last four starts against St. Louis and has gone 3-0 with a 1.35 ERA in his three matchups this season. He gave up two runs in 6 2-3 innings in his most recent meeting, a 7-4 victory Aug. 1.

Michael Wacha (5-5, 2.79) is expected to return from the disabled list in the start to an eight-game trip. The right-hander hasn't pitched for the Cardinals since a 5-2 win over the New York Mets on June 17 because of a stress reaction in his throwing shoulder.

Wacha did not get a decision in his only start against the Brewers, a 5-3 loss April 28. He gave up three runs in 6 1-3 innings and struck out nine. He's gone winless in his last nine road starts and has dropped five consecutive decisions there since earning a win in relief in an 8-5 victory against Milwaukee on Aug. 19, 2013.

The Cardinals, losers in 10 of 15 on the road, haven't won six in a row overall since the end of last season.
 

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