StatSystemsSports
Inside The Huddle – Thursday
#461 GREEN BAY @ #462 SEATTLE
TV: 8:30 PM EST, NBC
Line: Seahawks -6, Total: 46
The reigning Super Bowl champions certainly don't need a built-in edge, but the league's best home-field advantage is just one obstacle the Green Bay Packers have to conquer when they visit the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday night to kick off the NFL season. Seattle rode a suffocating defense to its first Super Bowl title in February, culminating its run by manhandling Peyton Manning and Denver's record-setting offense. The Seahawks are 15-1 over the past two seasons at CenturyLink Field.
Green Bay is touted as one of the top contenders to dethrone Seattle and the reason is a healthy Aaron Rodgers, who missed seven games last season due to a fractured collarbone. Rodgers returned for the regular-season finale and authored a last-minute comeback that clinched the third straight NFC North title for the Packers. The last meeting between the teams in 2012 featured one of the more memorable endings - infamously dubbed the "Fail Mary" - in league history, when Seattle's Russell Wilson threw a touchdown pass on the final play of the game that appeared to be an interception.
•ABOUT THE PACKERS (2013: 8-7-1, 1st NFC North): Rodgers is not the sole reason for the optimism in Green Bay - dangerous wideout Randall Cobb is back after missing 10 weeks due to injury last season while running back Eddie Lacy looks to build upon a season in which he rumbled for 1,178 yards and 11 TDs and was named the NFL's Offensive Rookie of the Year. On the other side of the ball, the Packers expect a major upgrade in the pass rush after the offseason signing of veteran defensive end Julius Peppers (118.5 career sacks) along with a return to health by linebacker Clay Matthews, who has 50 career sacks in five seasons but was hindered by a broken thumb for much of 2013. Plugging the void left by a season-ending injury to behemoth nose tackle B.J. Raji will be an issue against the Seahawks' smash-mouth ground game.
•ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (2013: 13-3, 1ST NFC West): Seattle led the NFL in fewest points (14.4) and yards (273.3) permitted while also ranking No. 1 with 28 interceptions - eight by bombastic cornerback Richard Sherman, the leader of a secondary known as the Legion of Boom. Aside from a post-Super Bowl hangover, the Seahawks must cope with the loss of defensive linemen Chris Clemons, Red Bryant and Clinton McDonald while playing in the fiercest division in football. Dual-threat Wilson has posted a passer rating of at least 100.0 in each of his first two seasons and gets back a big weapon in multi-talented wideout Percy Harvin - who missed nearly the entire 2013 campaign due to injury. That will augment a ground game powered by Marshawn Lynch, who has rushed for 4,051 yards and 35 TDs the past three seasons.
•PREGAME NOTES: Rodgers has five straight seasons with a passer rating over 100.0 and has thrown for 101 TDs versus 20 interceptions in the past three campaigns.... Wilson has 24 overall wins and 15 at home in his first two seasons, the most by a quarterback in the Super Bowl era.... Green Bay is 6-2 against the Seahawks since 2003 - with five of the wins coming in Seattle.... The Seahawks are 6-0 against the spread as a home favorite of 7-points or less over the last three seasons.... The Packers are 58-37 Over in games played on turf since 1992.
•KEY STATS
--GREEN BAY is 37-19 OVER (+16.1 Units) the 1rst half total against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
The average score was GREEN BAY 14.5, OPPONENT 10.4.
--SEATTLE is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SEATTLE 24.6, OPPONENT 14.2.
•COACHING TRENDS
--MIKE MCCARTHY is 13-5 OVER (+7.5 Units) against NFC West division opponents as the coach of GREEN BAY.
The average score was GREEN BAY 30.0, OPPONENT 21.5.
--MIKE MCCARTHY is 16-5 OVER (+10.5 Units) the 1rst half total against NFC West division opponents as the coach of GREEN BAY.
The average score was GREEN BAY 16.5, OPPONENT 10.8.
--PETE CARROLL is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of SEATTLE.
The average score was SEATTLE 30.4, OPPONENT 11.6.
--PETE CARROLL is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in home games in the first month of the season as the coach of SEATTLE.
The average score was SEATTLE 26.8, OPPONENT 13.1.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--GREEN BAY is 6-3 against the spread versus SEATTLE since 1992.
--GREEN BAY is 7-3 straight up against SEATTLE since 1992.
--5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--GREEN BAY is 7-3 versus the first half line when playing against SEATTLE since 1992.
--5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Packers are 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
--Home team is 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--GB is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
--GB is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in Week #1.
--Over is 4-0 in GB last 4 games in September.
--SEA is 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 home games.
--SEA is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in September.
--Under is 7-0 in SEA last 7 vs. NFC.
StatSystemsSports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 40 times, while the underdog covered the spread 16 times. *EDGE against the spread =SEATTLE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 48 times, while the underdog won straight up 9 times. 38 games went over the total, while 29 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 74 times, while the underdog covered first half line 47 times. *No EDGE. 63 games went over first half total, while 55 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Against - Road teams versus the money line (GREEN BAY) - poor passing defense from last season - allowed 230 or more passing yards/game, in conference games.
(62-27 over the last 10 seasons.) (69.7%, +30.8 units. Rating = 2*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -115.6
The average score in these games was: Team 24.2, Opponent 18.8 (Average point differential = +5.4)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (25-10, +13.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (38-18, +18.5 units).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (112-65, +22.4 units).
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