Steve's Golf Picks
Jeff Overton has withdrawn from the tournament, so he will be replaced by Chris Stroud @ 55/1 I would like to welcome everyone to the 2014 Greenbrier Classic this week.
The Greenbrier Classic is played in White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia at The Old White TPC. Last year was the 5th year the tournament has been named The Greenbrier Classic, as it replaced the Buick Open on the PGA Tour circuit. Unfortunately for tournament organizers, players have fed off the easy layout of the Par 70, 7020 yard course. We actually had Jeff Overton four years years ago, and Stuart Appleby went out and shot a 59 on Sunday to win by 1 stroke over Jeff.
When organizers saw how easy the course was playing for the Tour pro's, they took a year to lengthen and toughen up the track. Many greens have been altered or replaced and the rough figures to be much more of a challenge this week than in previous years. The course will be playing at 7229 yards this year and will continue to be played as a Par 70.
With a premium once again being put on Total Driving and accuracy from the fairways, lets take a look at one of the most interesting finishing holes in golf (and one that will have an impact on the golf tournament this week.)
The Par 3 162 Yard 18th Hole -
Rarely do you ever see a course finish with a Par 3, but that is exactly the case this week at The Old White TPC. This short Par 3 is where Stuart Appleby made history four years ago by rolling in his putt for a final round 59.Though the 18th is guarded by bunkers, it utilizes its severe two tiered green to guard against the players taking advantage of the short hole. If you are on the wrong tier you can completely count out birdie, and would be more than happy not ending your round with a three putt. Look for the 18th to once again be a climatic setting come Sunday, with the stadium-like gallery loving every minute of it.
The Players
This week we have a below average list of headline names competing as many are preparing elsewhere for the upcoming Open Championship. Bubba Watson and Webb Simpson headline this years stars who will be competing in the Greenbrier Classic. Jimmy Walker, Brendon Todd, Keegan Bradley, Bill Haas, and Steve Stricker are just a few of the other notable names that will be competing this week.
This week we are keying on players who can take advantage of an easier course, yet also play it properly. Though The Old White TPC will be tougher this year, it still presents players with the ability to score well. If you drive the ball in the fairways and are accurate with you irons, you will have the ability to go low this week. Player's who played well last week at an extremely difficult Congressional, are most likely going to find this week very forgiving.
One other thing to watch for is the player's who need to improve their Fed Ex Cup standing in order to qualify for the first event of the playoff season, The Barclays. With only the Top 125 players making the field at The Barclays, look for positioning to be in the back of many players minds.
This season players also have the opportunity to qualify for the Open Championship from the Greenbrier Classic, with spots being awarded to the Top 4 players at the end of the week.
Without further ado, lets get down to my outright winner picks.
Steve's Six Pack
Chris Stroud 55/1 - This pick replaces Jeff Overton's withdraw
Brendon De Jonge 33/1 - De Jonge is another player who has yet to win on Tour but has had many close calls. He showed his ability to play with some of the worlds best last season at the Presidents Cup, and I thought that would propel him to a huge 2014. De Jonge has just 4 Top 25's in 23 events this year though, but he did finish T8 last week.
Last season at this event Brendon finished T17, and would have been in a great position to win if it wasn't for a 3rd round 73. De Jonge has a history of good finishes at this course though as he also has finished 3rd in 2010 and T4 in 2011. Confidence should be at an all time high this week for De Jonge and I feel we are getting great odds on him. A key for Brendon this week will be hitting Greens in Regulation, as he only ranks 119th on Tour in this category. He is a terrific driver of the ball (25th in Total Driving), and loves putting on these greens. I am looking forward to watching the big man from Zimbabwe make plenty of birdies.
Brendon Todd 24/1 - Todd has been on fire as of late. He has finished inside the Top 20 in five straight Tournaments, including a win at the Byron Nelson and a pair of T5's at the Crowne Plaza and the QuickenLoans. It has been everything about his game that has been on recently and I really think he will be on the Ryder Cup team this year. Todd proved he can compete with the best in the game at the US Open (T17), and looks driven to win again.
He will get a great opportunity to this week as Brendon has a putter that is on fire right now. He sunk plenty of 7-10 foot putts last week to save par or make birdies. The course this week will seem like a breeze to Todd who has played played great golf at some tough courses recently. I know he let us down last week, but Todd will make up for it this week.
Morgan Hoffman 110/1 - Hoffman is an interesting selection this week. Hoffman played in this tournament for the first time last year and he finished T23. He hit 75% of his Greens in Regulation that week and played the Par 3's and 4's in a combined 4 under. Hoffman will look to take advantage of the Par 5's more this season, as just 2 under on them will not cut it.
Hoffman has yet to finish in the Top 10 in his second full season on the PGA Tour but this week it will happen. He has success at tournaments when you have to make a lot of birdies and should build off a few positives I noticed last week. Hoffman played great the first two days shooting 70 and 68, but something happened on the weekend and he shot a pair of 78's. Following the tournament he expressed that his game feels right on the edge of breaking through and he was looking forward to this week. I also liked how he showed great composure even when this were not going his way. I have a gut feeling that Hoffman will use last week's tough weekend and be that much more focused on playing great this week.
2 Units on Jimmy Walker 11/1 - I do not even need to explain this pick. Jimmy Walker is going to play on the Ryder Cup team this year, has a chance at being named player of the year, and is by far the favourite this week is West Virginia. He was runner up here last year and has a pair of T4's in 2010 and 2011. Walker finished T9 in his last start (the US Open) and is going to be in contention on Sunday this week. Lay 2 Units on him and enjoy watching one of the best players in the world right now play a course he loves.
HEAD TO HEAD
We will go with two Head to Heads this week each for 3 Units
3 Units on - Jimmy Walker (-120) over Bubba Watson
3 Units on - Brendon Todd (-125) over Keegan Bradley
Let's get that elusive winner and get on a great run here.
w-thumbs!^
